XAUUSD 12/9/2024 will the gold price continue to decrease
Looking at H1, we see a complete Elliot structure has been completed including 5 main waves and 3 abc correction waves, I used purple to symbolize on the chart
- Following a complete structure is a new trend that coincides with the main trend with a 5-wave structure
- Currently, we predict that wave 1 in the new trend has been completed and wave 2 is being completed
- The target area of wave 2 I measured at the area of 2508 - 2505, we will use this price area as the target to BUY up according to wave 3
- At that time, we measure the target of wave 3 at least at the area of 2538 - 2541 and this price area will be our Sell target to catch the wave 4 correction down
- I still reserve a case that the current price wave 2 continues to adjust according to the abc structure that has not ended, then we will have a target BUY at 2494 - 2491
Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 2508 - 2505
SL: 2498
TP1: 2516
TP2: 2525
TP3: 2532
BUY ZONE: 2494 - 2491
SL: 2484
TP1: 2500
TP2: 2508
TP3: 2520
SELL ZONE: 2538 - 2541
SL: 2548
TP1: 2531
TP2: 2525
TP3: 2517
Xauusd(w)
Gold analysis September 11Fundamental Analysis The steady rise continued throughout the early part of the European session and took the commodity to a fresh weekly high, with buyers now looking to build on the upside momentum beyond the $2,525-2,526 supply zone. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on the gains recorded over the past three days and withdrawn from the monthly top amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a weaker risk-on sentiment in general has prompted some safe-haven flows and lifted Gold closer to its all-time high in the last hour. However, bulls may refrain from positioning for any further upside moves and prefer to pause ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. The key US CPI report will play a key role in investigating market expectations on the size of the Fed's September rate cut and determine the next leg of the directional move for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis Gold's push to 2529 in European trading promises a breakout of all-time highs early today. The current key zone around 2529 in European trading could push prices back to 2540. The top is a push to the psychological port zone which is also the Fibonacci level of 2555. Contrary, if 2029 fails to break, prices could soon push to the 2517 zone before the CPI data and also the US session. and revisit the 2495 support zone and 2555 resistance when the news is released. because if the news pushes up, there will be no good entry to sell until the 2540 and 2555 areas.
Resistance above: 2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555…
Support: 2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485
SELL 2537 - 2529 Stoploss 2442
SELL 2554 - 2556 Stoploss 2559
BUY 2508 - 2506 Stoploss 2503
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 2491
Golden Indicator based signals Xauusd 2499 to 2515..16 pointsXauusd buy above only 2499.25
stoploss 2493.50.....6 points
Tp-1................2503.....4points
Tp-2................2509.....9.50 points
Tp-3.................2515.....16 points
This level based on Golden Indicator and education purpose only
XAUUSD 1H BUY PROJECTION Reason for Bullish
Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Indicators
Two Federal Reserve policymakers voiced their opinion on Tuesday, stating it would be “reasonable” to expect three interest rate cuts in the U.S. within the year. This perspective comes despite a backdrop of robust economic indicators, which have led some investors to question the feasibility of such moves. The anticipation of interest rate adjustments is a critical factor influencing financial markets and investment strategies.
Surge in Gold Prices
The price of gold has surged over 10% since the start of the year, cementing its status as a preferred hedge against inflation and a sanctuary amid political and economic uncertainty. This significant uptick is largely due to considerable purchases by central banks and a rising demand for safe-haven assets.
Gold and Silver Prices Today
As of April 5th, 2024, the precious metals market has observed noteworthy movements. Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by global trends and market dynamics, reflecting the continuous appeal of gold as an investment.
U.S. Economic Outlook
Recent data indicates a slowdown in the growth of the U.S. services industry for March, with a concurrent reduction in the prices businesses pay for inputs, hitting a four-year low. These developments suggest a potentially favorable outlook for inflation, influencing investment decisions and monetary policy.
XAUUSD 1H SELL PROJECTION 10.09.24Reason for Bearish
Gold prices have continued to hit fresh highs in 2024 due to a wide range of factors — from escalating geopolitical risks and the interest rate outlook to budget deficit concerns, inflation hedging and central bank buying.
Gold’s blistering rally this year was partly fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates as many as three times in 2024, as stubborn inflation started to ease. But current projections suggest only one rate cut is penciled in for the remainder of 2024.
Traditionally, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. interest rates increase the appeal of non-yielding bullion. But a significant decoupling started to emerge in early 2022 and gold’s relationship with U.S. real yields has broken down even further this year.
“Gold’s resurgence has come earlier than expected, as it further decouples from real yields. We have been structurally bullish gold since the fourth quarter of 2022 and with gold prices surging past $2,400 in April, the rally has come earlier and has been much sharper than expected. It has been especially surprising given that it has coincided with Fed rate cuts being priced out and U.S. real yields moving higher due to stronger labor and inflation data in the U.S,” said Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
XAUUSD 15M ASCENDING TRIANGLE BUY PROJECTION 09.09.24Reason for Bullish
Key Takeaways
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically break out of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle, although this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
A long trade is taken if the price breaks above the top of the pattern.
A short trade is taken if the price breaks below the lower trendline.
A stop loss is typically placed just outside the pattern on the opposite side from the breakout.
A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point.
XAUUSD/GOLD 30M BUY PROJECTION 09.09.24nternally, factors such as domestic demand, currency exchange rates, and government policies play a significant role in shaping gold's trajectory. For instance, a surge in demand for gold during cultural festivities or a weakening domestic currency can propel prices upwards
Gold for the week starting 9th September 2024Gold is on the downward trend in 1,2,3,4 hr time frame, but on uptrend in day time frame.
Seems to be in consolidation mode between 2460 & 2530. Break on either side will give 100 points.
Buy if one hour candle closes ABOVE 2511 for a target of 2522 to 2525
Sell around 2500 to 2505 for a target of 2465 to 2460.
Disclaimer: This is my own view and is only for educational purpose. please do your analysis before taking any position.
Gold Sideways: Waiting for a Breakout to Determine the Next TrenGold is currently trading sideways between resistance at 2,530 and support at 2,480, awaiting a breakout to determine the next trend.
EMA 34: Acting as near-term support, indicating a short-term uptrend. If the price falls below EMA 34, selling pressure could increase. EMA 89 provides medium-term support; maintaining the price above EMA 89 will support the uptrend.
Traders should look for confirmation signals from a breakout model. A price move beyond the resistance or support levels will signal a clear trading opportunity.
Whales are trading large volumes, creating strong volatility and potentially causing unexpected gold price increases.
XAUUSD (Gold) seek and Destroy FridayToday on Friday key news : Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
XAUUSD made seek and destroy ICT pattern.
This pattern is known for stop loss hunting pattern as per ICT
As per Elliott wave in smaller timeframe..
it has made 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave
from 2471 to 2529
and now doing zig zag A-B-C corrective moves.
Disclaimer : study in only for educational purpose
Golden Indicator level Xauusd New All Time Hig 2519.50 to 2540++Buy Condition above only 2519.50
Current price running 2513.70
Buy above...... 2519.50
Stoploss........ 2512......7 pts
Tp-1..............2523.50......4 pts
Tp-2...............2528.50......9 pts
Tp-3................2535.........14 pts
Tp-4................2540.........20 pts
This level based on Golden Indicator and education purpose only
Gold poised to surge on NFP and U.S. inflation data.Tonight, key figures for NFP, Employment Change, and the U.S. Unemployment Rate will be released. The labor market outlook is predicted to be negative, with Nonfarm Payrolls expected to reach only 164K and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating rising inflation pressure. This could cause significant volatility for the USD and push gold prices higher.
The 4H XAUUSD chart shows a breakout from the downtrend channel, with gold surpassing resistance at 2,526 USD and support from EMA 34 (2,505 USD) aiding the upward move.
Interestingly, after this breakout, gold is likely to continue toward the target of 2,550 USD, a level many investors are anticipating.
Stay updated with market news for more accurate trading. Wishing everyone successful trades.
Gold Price Analysis September 6Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices attracted some buyers for the third straight day on Friday and traded near weekly highs heading into the European session. However, the gains lacked bullish sentiment as investors opted to wait for the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing any fresh bets. Meanwhile, rising bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September weighed on the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day and provided some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a mixed batch of US employment data released this week suggested the labour market is losing momentum and raised concerns about the health of the economy. This, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampened investor appetite for riskier assets and turned out to be another factor that acted as a driver of safe-haven Gold prices. However, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the two-day uptrend ahead of key US macro data risks.
Technical Analysis
Gold is looking to make an ATH in today’s US session. The re-approach to the 2523 zone in yesterday’s evening session and the liquid pullback to the 2508 zone and back to the top as the European session began have prompted investors to buy to push prices higher in the US session. The key price zone of 2526 on the breakout in today’s European session is definitely a new all-time high for Gold.
Gold will at least reach 2526 or 2533 before a sharp decline. Now the US session begins and gold pushes down first, the US's upward force will be greater and it is possible to reach the sell zone of 254x.
Resistance: 2526 - 2532 - 2542 - 2555
Support: 2493 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536
BUY price zone 2499 - 2497 stoploss 2492
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
XAUUSD/GOLD NFP NEWS FORCAST 06.09.24The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a monthly US labor market indicator that measures the number of jobs added or lost in the previous month. The NFP report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is usually available on the first Friday of each month.
The NFP report is a significant economic indicator that can have a big impact on the global financial markets. Here are some reasons why the NFP report is important:
Forex market
The NFP report is one of the most significant news announcements in the foreign exchange (forex) market, causing large movements in the market.
Interest rate policy
The Federal Reserve pays close attention to the NFP report when setting interest rate policy.
Economic expansion
Increasing NFP numbers may indicate economic expansion, but they may also be a sign of inflation.
Economic concerns
Decreasing NFP numbers may indicate broader economic concerns.
There are two ways to trade the NFP report:
Before the release
Use deductive reasoning to predict the market's direction before the NFP number is released.
Gold: Edges higher within bullish channel, focus on $2,530 & NFPGold buyers are gearing up for potential weekly gains as the metal rebounds from a resistance-turned-support level that's been holding steady for seven weeks. With the crucial US August jobs report, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), on the horizon, traders are cautious before the release.
A smoother road for bulls
Gold's recent bounce from past resistance and a 2.5-month-old bullish trend channel suggest more gains ahead. That said, supportive RSI and weakening bearish MACD signals also favor buyers.
Important technical levels to watch
A 13-day-old descending trend line, close to $2,530 at the latest, guards immediate upside of the gold price ahead of the all-time high surrounding $2,532 marked in August. Following that, the aforementioned bullish trend channel’s upper line, close to $2,558, and the $2,600 round figure will gain attention of the buyers.
On the contrary, sellers will wait for a clear downside break of the multi-day-old previous resistance line, near $2,470 as we write, for taking fresh entries. Even so, a convergence of the 50-SMA and bottom line of previously stated bullish channel, near $2,439, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears before taking control. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA level around $2,388 acts as an additional downside filter.
What Next?
Gold buyers are poised for potential new highs, but gains might be limited before the key US jobs data is released.
XAUUSD 6/9/2024 Where will the uptrend end?
Looking at H1 we are seeing a 5-wave bullish structure forming,
- Currently looking at the price data, the wave 4 structure is forming, the completion of wave 4 and wave 5 are confirmed when the price breaks through 2523, then we have the confirmation of wave 5.
- After a 5-wave structure will be an adjustment according to the 3-wave ABC structure.
- I have estimated the wave 5 target at the price range of 2530 - 2533, which is also our SELL target
- Then the ABC correction structure has a target to end at the price range of 2500 - 2497, which will be our BUY target.
- I still do not rule out the possibility that the big correction wave has not been completed yet, then the target of wave C that I mentioned in the previous plan is the price zone of 2464 - 2467, which will be our BUY target when the price breaks through 2472
Our trading plan will trade according to the ABC downtrend and wait for the ABC downtrend structure to complete, then we will BUY up
Trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2530 -2533
SL: 2540
TP1: 2523
TP2: 2518
TP3: 2509
BUY ZONE: 2500 - 2497
SL: 2400
TP1: 2518
TP2: 2523
TP3: 2530
BUY ZONE: 2467 - 2464
SL: 2457
TP1: 2482
TP2: 2493
TP3: 2518
XAUUSD - Accumulation , Manipulation and Distribution
Today before "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: news
big players took the advantage of news and followed
ICT PO3 pattern which is
ACCUMULATION
MANIPULATION
DISTRIBUTION
ICT power of three is the strategy which exposes the smart money traps for retail traders.
ICT power of 3 concept is also known as AMD setup because of the three main concepts accumulation, manipulation and distribution.
Accumulation phase is when market ranges near important level and smart money accumulate their positions in this area.
Manipulation phase, as obvious from the name, is to manipulate the retail traders. After accumulation smart money moves the market in opposite direction .
Distribution phase is the real move. After manipulating retail traders smart money add their positions toward the real direction of market hence moving market opposite to retail mindset.
In above chart i tried to show this po3 strategy developed by ICT .
Before the red folder news market was ranging.. post that big players
manipulated towards the order block and made high 2523..
and started distribution and till now made low near 2504.
Elliott wave and ICT concepts are very easy to learn if one keeps positive mindset of learning.
Disclaimer : Study is for educational purpose
XAUUSD elliott wave analysis.. Buy on DipYesterday ISM Manufacturing PMI data given a dip near 2473
where it seems that xauusd completed its last leg of 5th wave of Y.
Now breaking out from the channel and 2-4 trendline will give more strength for
upmove..
Important level to watch 2496.. bulls need to sustain
upside immediate resistance 2507-09 and 2532
downside support 2473-2470
Disclaimer : study is for educational purpose