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Gold remains close to record high Gold remains close to record high and yesterday gold price rallied over 1% and the main reason for this rise is geopolitical uncertainty, driving risk aversion and boosting safe-haven demand for OANDA:XAUUSD ongoing tensions keep bullish momentum alive for new record highs, An escalation of the Middle East conflict could pave the way for higher prices. Although momentum favors buyers, also daily CPR moving into ascending side and also price trading above weekly pivot: but the Higher Time frame looks like in Sideways (2685-2630). 🔵 For Intra day Buy : Wait for breakout on 2670-72 area towards 2685 or higher level if breakout from recent ATH level. 🔵 For Intra day sell : Very risky to sell as due to geopolitical scenario but technically if price drops below 2,652-50 (breakdown CPR on H1 or H4) , the door opened to testing the recent low around 2630. 🔵 For Swing trade : Buy the dip is still valid
FX:XAUUSD
by TheGoldenCircle
XAUUSD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARDXAUUSD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the marketwhich preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for breakC. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
FX:XAUUSDShort
by tradergyan01
Real Reason of gold spike by 18 $ pre USA news release.As the news broke out by American new agencies, that Iran might be planning to strike down ISRAEL with ballistic missile, this led to investor hussle and seek either hedge their investments or seek alternative investments rather than being invested in dollars. Also NFP strikes up coming friday... so we need to keep our buy positions in line with current development. currently Gold is very high, so we need to wait for gold for seek a v shape depth fall and we should seek buying at lower lows. Gold clinched its third consecutive week of gains, reaching a fresh all-time high on Thursday. If bullish momentum persists, immediately to the upside emerges the $2,700 mark. Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical tensions continue to support the yellow metal. Gold (XAU/USD) extended its positive performance this week, hitting all-time tops in levels just shy of the $2,700 mark per ounce troy on Thursday. The rally in the precious metal remained propped up by, firstly, steady expectations of extra interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the upcoming couple of meetings and well into 2025, and secondly, incessant geopolitical concerns stemming mainly from the Middle East, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict also adds to the matter. Last but not least, contributing to the uptrend in bullion, also emerged the equally persevering offered stance of the US Dollar (USD). Next on tap… $3,000? As the US Dollar approaches its third consecutive week of losses, Gold prices are set to mark their third straight week of gains. Since late June, traders have continued to shift towards the non-yielding metal pari passu growing expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, which culminated in a significant 50-basis-point (bps) reduction at the Fed’s meeting on September 18. However, market participants did not seem quite satisfied with the Fed's outsized move. That said, investors still expect around 75 bps of easing by the central bank for the remainder of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Looking at the longer run, investors expect between 100 and 125 bps of interest rate reductions by the end of 2025. Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that the yellow metal could have already embarked on a probable visit to the key $3,000 level, which will apparently hit sooner rather than later. However, the current overbought market conditions might call for some common sense, allowing some short-term corrective decline. At this point, and in light of the strong rally observed in Gold prices, a “purge” would be more than welcomed by those afraid of entering the market at current levels, at the same time giving another chance to those part of the fear of missing out (FOMO) space. Geopolitical effervescence continues to support the uptrend Another driver of the important move higher in the precious metal is the unabated geopolitical jitters surrounding the Israel-Hamas crisis, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will likely enter its third year in February. The flight-to-safety adage comes to the fore every time news hits the wires about the deterioration of any of these scenarios, which unfortunately do not appear to be over any time soon. And the US Dollar? The Greenback has been on a firm bearish leg since July, accompanied by increasing speculation of extra monetary policy easing by the Fed. Now that the central bank has started its rate cut cycle, and with inflation kind of firmly navigating towards the 2% target, hopes for a sustained recovery of the US Dollar seem to dim on a daily basis, at least in the near future. Gold technical outlook As we mentioned above, Gold’s current overbought conditions, as per the daily RSI around 75, leave the door open for a near-term correction. However, the constructive outlook appears to be everything but abated. That said, there is an immediate up-barrier at the record peak of $2,685 (Thursday’s high) and the round-level of $2,700. Once this level is surpassed, the Fibonacci extensions of the 2024 uptrend emerge at $2,876, seconded by $2,975 and then $3,119. Let’s say sellers regain some initiative. In this scenario, there is an initial contention at the weekly low of $2,546 (September 18), which comes ahead of the September low of $2,471 (September 4) and precedes the transitory 100-day SMA at $2,428. From a technical perspective, the metal’s positive outlook should remain unchanged as long as it trades above the key 200-day SMA at $2,288. Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Next release: Fri Oct 04, 2024 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 145K Previous: 142K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by XAUUSDANALYST
2
Gold Still Holding the Ground Gold return/Bounced from the first Re-loading area that I Marked in Monday update , the recent bounce also triggered due to war news: In today's morning update I was expecting more correction but bulls getting help from ongoing war news: Now if we watch the H4 timeframe we can see that the current correction is turning the chart into sideways range (2685-2630) and we have to wait for breakout from this range for clear direction : Shorting on war news can be dangerous so we have to wait for a breakout from support area or resistance area for next move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheGoldenCircle
XAUUSD 1H SELL PROJECTION 01.10.24Reason for sell Central banks hold paper currencies and gold in reserve. As central banks diversify their monetary reserves (away from the paper currencies they accumulate and into gold) the price of gold typically rises. Many of the world’s nations have reserves that are composed primarily of gold. Bloomberg reported that global central banks have been buying the most gold since the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971, with 2019 figures dipping just modestly from 2018’s 50-year record. 4 After a downtick in central bank gold purchases in 2020, the pace picked up again in 2021 and surpassed the 50-year record again in 2022. 2023 also saw a significant growth in central bank gold reserves. 5 6 7 The top gold buyer in 2022 was the central bank of Türkiye, followed by Uzbekistan, India, and Qatar. The top gold buyers in 2023 were China, Singapore, and the Czech Republic. 7 8 9 Silver Bullion. "Top 5 Countries That Were Net Buyers of Gold in 2023."
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by kripsonfx97
Gold Price Drops as Investors Take ProfitsThe XAU/USD chart presents an interesting market scenario, with gold currently hovering around $2,636.120. Key support levels at $2,613.983 and $2,607.217 act as a "shield" for buyers, preventing deeper declines. The strong resistance at $2,677.741 has become the primary target. If gold surpasses this level, a continued upward momentum could occur, aiming for new highs. The breakdown of Middle East peace talks, weakening U.S. job market, a potential 0.5% rate cut by the Fed, and China's stimulus boost – these factors may drive gold prices higher in the future.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
Gold : More room for correction/ DeclineSo finally gold entered into correction phase and seems like there is more room for decline in this correction cycle : Today CPR is descending and the last day candle is a good bearish candle and as discussed in yesterdays update the area around 2620-30 is a support zone with high volume and price is currently tested this zone and bouncing on Intra day but in Higher side we have descending CPR + Dynamic Trend Line resistance + FIB Resistance zone (2655-2662 for current cycle till last day), so under these resistance we can still look for sell opportunities towards weekly S1(2616) or low near 2600. Currently I am watching chart on FXCM data feed and there maybe difference in levels that I am sharing : Let me know in if you see some changes /difference.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TheGoldenCircle
XAU/USD: Break Through $2,683 or Correct Down to $2,644?The XAU/USD chart reveals a critical situation as gold prices hover around $2,659.915. Currently, strong support at $2,644.626 is helping to prevent a deeper decline. The EMA 34 and 89 lines at $2,652.357 and $2,618.574, respectively, are also playing a role in supporting the uptrend. The key resistance level to break is $2,683.746. If the price can breach this level, the potential for continued upward momentum to higher levels will open up. However, if it fails, the likelihood of a downward correction becomes clearer, with the target being the lower support zone. Additionally, hot economic news from the U.S. and significant updates from the Fed could strongly influence gold price movements in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
Gold due for correctionGold price is currently due for correction , Friday closing was bearish but still need more confirmation to see possible correction (Need one more day to close under PDL (2658 ) , On price action it is clear that price is currently forming head and shoulder pattern and to validated this pattern price need to breakdown at least 2650 level , In Higher side price also facing resistance on trend line ; CPR is also in descending formation compared to last day; In lower side we have to watch weekly Support (2616.18); As everyone knows that the current bullish rally is supported by the middle east war so we have to keep eye on the development of any war related news, if we consider the war factor and higher TF then overall the price is still maintaining the bullish structure so correction side is limited but we can consider this correction as per current PA .
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TheGoldenCircle
1
Gold due for correctionGold price is currently due for correction , Friday closing was bearish but still need more confirmation to see possible correction (Need one more day to close under PDL (2658 ) , On price action it is clear that price is currently forming head and shoulder pattern and to validated this pattern price need to breakdown at least 2650 level , In Higher side price also facing resistance on trend line ; CPR is also in descending formation compared to last day; In lower side if we have watch weekly Support (2616.18); As everyone knows that the current bullish rally is supported by the middle east war so we have to keep eye on the development of any war related news, if we consider the war factor and higher TF then overall the price is still maintaining the bullish structure so correction side is limited but we can consider this correction as per current PA .
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TheGoldenCircle
1
XAU/USD: Break Resistance at $2,680 or Correct to $2,645?The analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that gold is currently priced at $2,658.550, with strong support at $2,645.331. From the chart, it is clear that the upward trend is still being maintained, thanks to the support of the EMA 34 and EMA 89 levels at $2,658 and $2,633.502, respectively. The key resistance at $2,680.809 is the barrier that the price needs to break through if it is to continue reaching higher levels, with the next target at $2,697.070. However, if the price fails to maintain its upward momentum and drops below the $2,645.331 support level, a deeper correction may occur. In the current market context, important economic news from the U.S. and statements from Fed officials will be key factors that could significantly impact gold price movements in the coming days.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
3
XAU/USD: Ready for a Breakout or Awaiting a Pullback?The XAU/USD chart is revealing a dramatic story. Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $2,669.635 after touching a strong resistance at $2,685.180. The bulls are defending the critical support level at $2,649.955, with two solid defensive shields — the EMA 34 and EMA 89 positioned at $2,639.497 and $2,594.206 — keeping the upward momentum intact for gold. However, the real challenge lies at the $2,685.180 resistance level. Should the price break through, the door will open to new highs, with the next target set at $2,699.470 — a crucial resistance zone. As waves of economic news from the U.S. and key statements from the Fed roll in, this is the moment for savvy and alert traders to take action.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
1
Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances. Technical levels to watch With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out. Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders. What next? A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
XAU/USD: Awaiting a Breakthrough at $2,720 or Correction?The XAU/USD chart on September 26 tells an exciting story of gold's bullish momentum. After hitting $2,661, gold is steadily advancing, shielded by two strong supports—EMA 34 at $2,540 and EMA 89 at $2,448. These support levels act as fortresses, holding buyers firm and allowing gold to continue climbing. However, all eyes are now on the key psychological resistance near $2,720, a critical barrier that, if broken, could pave the way for new highs. Upcoming FOMC statements could significantly impact XAU/USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
XAUUSD - Financial Insights 26/09/2024Summary: Things are getting worse, slowly but worse, XAUUSD will reach 3K at the end of this year 1. Title: Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time Source: Bloomberg Problem: China's economy faces a deflationary slump due to a property market crash, weak consumer demand, and trade tensions. Solution: The central bank launched aggressive easing measures, including interest rate cuts, more liquidity, and housing incentives. Result: Markets surged, but economists warn these actions provide only temporary relief without deeper reforms. Prediction: Further fiscal policies and structural reforms are needed to avoid long-term stagnation and drive sustainable growth. 2. Title: China Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Ever in Stimulus Drive Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Chinese economy faces potential deflationary pressures, prompting the need for significant monetary stimulus. Solution: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the medium-term lending facility rate by 30 basis points to 2%, initiating a broader stimulus package to boost economic confidence. Result: The yuan strengthened, and Chinese stocks gained, with expectations for further monetary easing, including future rate cuts on reverse repurchase notes. Prediction: Analysts anticipate additional rate reductions and liquidity measures to support the economy, aligning funding costs more closely with market rates in the coming months. 3. Title: OECD Upgrades UK Growth by Most in G-7, Warns on Inflation Source: Bloomberg Problem: UK faces high inflation, with the BOE struggling to meet its 2% target. Solution: The government plans to increase investment, focusing on infrastructure and the green transition. Result: UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but inflation remains high. Prediction: BOE may delay interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and wage pressures. 4. Title: Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth Source: Bloomberg Problem: The global economy faces risks from geopolitical tensions, soft labor markets, and potential financial market upheaval as inflation eases. Solution: Central banks can cautiously cut interest rates while monitoring data closely, avoiding rapid reductions. Result: OECD projects global growth to stabilize at 3.2% for 2024, with moderating inflation expected in G20 nations by the end of 2025. Prediction: While growth forecasts for the US and euro area remain steady, the OECD warns of significant risks that could impact the global economic outlook. 5. Title: Danish Central Bank Slashes Inflation Forecasts as Wages Cool Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Danish labor market pressure has eased, but there are concerns about potential inflationary risks from the government's proposed 2025 budget. Solution: The central bank has reduced its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, anticipating slower wage growth due to a less tight labor market. Result: Inflation is now forecasted at 1.3% for 2024 (down from 2.2%) and 2.1% for 2025 (down from 2.6%), indicating a more stable economic environment. Prediction: The central bank warns against loosening fiscal policy too soon, as it could destabilize the current balance in the labor market. 6. Title: BOE’s Greene Calls for ‘Cautious’ Approach to Rate Cuts Source: Bloomberg Problem: Strong wage growth and resilient economic activity pose risks, prompting concerns about inflation remaining sticky in the UK. Solution: BOE policymaker Megan Greene advocates for a cautious and gradual approach to interest rate cuts, ensuring that inflationary pressures have subsided before making significant changes. Result: The market reflects skepticism about immediate rate cuts, with current pricing suggesting a cut in November but a 60% chance of a follow-up in December. Prediction: Greene emphasizes the need for ongoing observation of wage trends and consumer spending to gauge future monetary policy adjustments. 7. Title: Fed's Bumper Rate Cut Revives 'Reflation Specter' in US Bond Market Source: Reuters Problem: The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts raise concerns about re-igniting inflation in the U.S. economy. Solution: The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut aims to recalibrate its approach, focusing on maintaining a strong labor market while managing inflation. Result: U.S. bond yields have risen as investors reassess inflation expectations, reflecting uncertainty over future economic conditions. Prediction: A gradual return to higher inflation could impact bond markets, and the central bank may need to adjust its strategy if inflation does not remain subdued. 8. Title: Investing.com Poll: Where do you see gold prices by the end of 2024? Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices have recently surged, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and investor sentiment. Solution: Analysts expect ongoing rate reductions, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. Result: Gold prices have rallied over 5% this month, defying historical trends for September. Prediction: While traders anticipate potential cooling in gold returns, any downside is likely to be limited, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for the metal. 9. Title: With Fed Easing Underway, What's Next for Markets? UBS Weighs In Source: Investing.com Problem: The recent rate cut by the Fed raises questions about future economic conditions and market stability. Solution: UBS believes the rate cut signals a willingness to support the economy, but emphasizes the need for clear labor market data to ensure a soft landing. Result: Markets have reacted positively to the rate cut, but uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate impact on growth and inflation. Prediction: A "Roaring '20s" scenario is considered an upside risk, but market volatility could re-emerge as investors seek clarity on the economy's trajectory. 10. Will Fed policy trigger a US recession? Claudia Sahm: Does not believe the US is currently in a recession, despite her namesake "Sahm rule" being triggered. Is concerned about the direction of economic indicators, with payroll gains slowing and unemployment rising. Puts higher odds of recession now than earlier in the cycle, but doesn't provide a specific percentage. Believes the Fed is at risk of making an "unforced policy error" if they don't cut rates soon enough, potentially leading to an unnecessary recession. Bill Dudley: Puts 50-60% odds of a recession in the next 12 months. Believes the Fed is "a bit behind the curve" in reducing interest rates given increased economic risks. Thinks a soft landing is possible but historically difficult for the Fed to achieve. Expects any potential recession to be mild due to strong household and business balance sheets. Rob Kaplan: Seems less concerned about recession risk than Dudley. Believes the job market is softening as intended, but not "falling out of bed." Thinks the Fed may be tactically behind by "a meeting or two" but not strategically behind. Expects the Fed to likely cut rates in September, November, and December, despite potentially hawkish rhetoric. 11. Title: Powell Emerges Stronger After Leading Fed to Big Rate Cut Source: Bloomberg Problem: Federal Reserve officials were divided on how aggressively to cut interest rates, amidst weak jobs data and inflation pressures easing. Solution: Chair Jerome Powell advocated for a significant 50 basis point rate cut to safeguard against potential risks to the labor market. Result: The majority of Fed officials supported the larger cut, reflecting Powell's strengthened leadership and consensus around his approach to manage economic risks. Prediction: If labor market data continues to disappoint, another substantial rate cut could occur in the future, as Powell aims to ensure a soft landing for the economy. 12. Title: Gold price consolidates below all-time peak, awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices are confined below their all-time peak due to rising US yields and a strong USD, creating uncertainty in the market. Solution: Traders are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other influential FOMC members, which may influence expectations for another 50 bps rate cut in November. Result: Current gold prices are stable around $2,650, supported by dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. Prediction: Upcoming economic data and Powell’s speech will be critical in determining gold's direction, with potential fluctuations as traders evaluate the likelihood of further rate cuts and their impacts on market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheChartist_Code2trade
XAU/USD: Historic Breakout or Awaiting a Pullback?Gold prices continue to shatter records, reaching an all-time high of $2,664, fueled by declining consumer confidence in the US, weakening Treasury yields, and a softer US dollar. Two strong support levels at $2,629.123 and $2,613.812, protected by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, act as shields for gold’s bullish momentum. However, the biggest hurdle remains the resistance at $2,685.993 – the key level that will determine whether gold can continue its upward climb to new heights. If the price breaks through this resistance, the potential for further gains looks promising. Meanwhile, economic news from the US and statements from the FED could change the game at any moment. Traders, be ready – opportunities like this don’t come twice. Get set for a powerful breakout!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Romio_pro
The Growing Attraction in a Volatile WorldThe gold price chart shows a clear upward trend since the beginning of September, with the EMA 34 and EMA 89 both signaling a strong upward momentum. The weakening of the USD, along with global economic stimulus measures and political tensions, have pushed gold prices higher. Especially in the context of major central banks around the world - from the US to Europe, and the People's Bank of China - all spreading monetary support packages like spring rain, further fueling the desire to invest in gold. Gold remains a safe haven and attractive asset in the current unstable context. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to seize opportunities and adjust strategies promptly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alexander_FXTrading
Gold is purely on bullish modewith the current news event on rise with another rate cut upto 100 basis points, we can clearly see that gold is no option for investors to hedge their risks. A good buy zone can be seen from 2625 levels to accumulate and hold for rise in coming new trading sessions. Buy can be done only if the retracement below 200 ema is clearly seen on charts . We should strongly reject buy side if the gold falls down sharply with large size candles with each candle size beyond 3 $ each. which will signal us temporary cooling down and we should then wait for gold to test 2600 $ levels.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by XAUUSDANALYST