Xauusd(w)
GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ( DAILY CHART )Fiday’s pullback in Gold price from near 8-day highs of $2,048, the path of least resistance still remains to the upside.
The daily technical setup for Gold price will continue to favor bullish traders so long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above the midline and the price manages to defend the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,016.
A daily closing below the latter could fuel a fresh decline toward the 50-day SMA at $1,982. However, the $2,000 threshold could be a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.
On the flip side, acceptance above the $2,040-$2,050 region is critical to resuming the Gold price recovery toward the $2,100 psychological level. The next bullish target is envisioned at the all-time highs of $2,144.
REGARDS
TRADE WITH RITIK
Gold sellers keep eyes on $1,960 and Fed announcementsGold price remains pressured at a three-week low, after declining in the last three consecutive days, despite a nail-biting wait for today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, especially after the previous day’s US inflation numbers. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from Friday’s downside break of horizontal support, now resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals, to poke the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support surrounding $1,980. That said, a downward-sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins the aforementioned bearish indicators to keep the XAUUSD sellers hopeful of breaking the nearby EMA support. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and an upward-sloping support line from mid-October, close to $1,960-58, appears a tough nut to crack for the bullion sellers. Following that, the previous monthly low of around $1,933 could test the bears before directing them toward the $1,900 round figure.
Alternatively, Gold price recovery needs validation from the aforementioned support-turned-resistance of near $2,010, as well as the Fed’s hawkish halt. Even so, the $2,030 and $2,080 levels will act as additional upside filters to challenge the XAUSD bulls before giving them control. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,080, the odds of witnessing a fresh yearly high past $2,100 psychological magnet can’t be ignored.
Overall, gold price is likely to remain pressured but the downside room appears limited.
Gold’s correction complete?
Gold hit an ATH of 2148.9 and the last week was too dramatic for bulls but its time that bulls are gonna gain control and keeping the upcoming data this week(11 dec) gold hit its 50% fib retracement which might act as a strong support and good correction for xau
Also keeping in mind the economic condition of the global economy gold looks strong.
MY PERSONAL VIEW :
This month’s low will not exceed 1935 and for upside there is 2040 in the view
Gold price hangs near two-week low ahead of US CPIThe gold price has recently dropped below the psychological $2,000 mark, indicating a bearish trend after breaking the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-December rally at $2,012-2,010. Daily chart oscillators are losing positive momentum, supporting the possibility of further declines. The next potential support level is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $1,965-1,963, followed by the crucial 200-day SMA near $1,951-1,950. A decisive break below the 200-day SMA could extend the recent pullback from the all-time high.
On the positive side, the $2,010-2,012 support now acts as an immediate hurdle, with resistance at $2,030 and the $2,040 supply zone. If a golden cross occurs, with the 50-day SMA rising above the 200-day SMA, it could favor bullish traders. In this scenario, a climb to the $2,071-2,072 region and a potential reclaim of the $2,100 level may follow.
XAUUSD Daily Analysis On Friday, the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 199K in November from the previous reading of 150K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.7% from 3.9% in the previous reading. Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 4.0%, matching market expectations.
Finally, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December came in at 69.4 versus 61.3 prior. In response to the data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 104.25 and the US Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield climbing from 4.15% to 4.28%.
The Fed will announce the interest rate decision on Wednesday.... its last meeting of the year. The markets anticipate no change in rates for its December meeting and think the dot plot will come down. Nonetheless, the market lowered its expectations for the first-rate cuts from March to May after stronger employment data
The firmer US Dollar (USD) and the concern about China’s deflation create a headwind for the gold price. On Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed that the nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.5% YoY in November from a 0.2% decline in October, worse than the market expectation of 0.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 3.0% YoY in November from a 2.6% decline in October, below the market consensus of a 2.8% decline in the reported period.
Looking ahead, market players will monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. The spotlight will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Technical side price is currently trading under Daily , Weekly and Monthly pivot which is good for bears on Intraday and bulls need good confirmation from lower support levels (1978 :fib 0.50 Level) or daily candle need to be close above daily pivot average
Gold pares the first weekly loss in four on US NFP DayGold price prints mild gains around $2,030 during a three-day winning streak as traders await the US employment report for November, mainly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) numbers. Even so, the yellow metal portrays the first weekly loss in four while struggling to defend the bounce off 100-EMA and an ascending support line stretched from early October, around $2,020-15 by the press time. That said, the gradually improving RSI (14) line and the sluggish MACD hint at the XAUUSD’s slower grind toward the north. However, a slew of resistances stand tall to challenge the bulls between $2,035 and $2,055. Following that, $2,090 will act as the last defense of the bears before directing the quote toward the all-time high marked on Monday surrounding $2,150.
In a case where the US jobs report offers a positive surprise to the US Treasury bond yields and drags the Gold price below the $2,020-15 support area, October’s peak of around $2,010 and the $2,000 psychological magnet will test the sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the commodity’s sustained trading below the $2,000 threshold, opens the door for a gradual south-run targeting the previous monthly low of around $1,930, as well as the mid-October swing low of near $1,910. If at all the XAUUSD bears keep reins past $1,910, and also break the $1,900 round figure, the precious metal defies the present bullish trend and becomes vulnerable to testing October’s low near $1,810.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to edge higher but may end the week on a negative note ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, unless today’s US employment data surprises the markets.
Gold Short Trade Idea - Gold is currently trading in a bearish trend
- Do not trade either side market can deleverage you
- Keep a close watch on DXY
- Let Gold mitigate 2035-2050 first
- This can be a zone to pull off some good shorts in Gold
- Wait for the execution and do not rush over it
- I am bearish on GOLD
GBPAUD BuyFOREXCOM:GBPAUD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!!
Gold Price surges to the all-time high above $2,130 on weaker USGold prices (XAU/USD) climbs to an all-time high above the $2,100 psychological round mark during the early Asian session on Monday.
The speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its peak of the rate hike cycle boosts yellow metal demand.
Gold price attracts some buyers above the $2,100 mark and has reached the record high of $2,148. At the time of writing, gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around $2,135, up 2.90% on the day.
Bearish Analysis for XAUUSD at 2075-2080 LevelsXAUUSD pair is currently trading in a critical price range, specifically between 2075 and 2080. This analysis aims to provide a bearish perspective on the market conditions within this price bracket.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels:
The price range of 2075-2080 has historically acted as a significant resistance zone. Multiple attempts to breach this level have been met with strong selling pressure, indicating a notable barrier for upward movement.
Bearish Candlestick Patterns:
Recent candlestick patterns, such as shooting stars or bearish engulfing patterns, signal potential weakness in the current uptrend. These patterns suggest that sellers are gaining control, and a reversal might be in play.
Overbought Conditions:
Examining various technical indicators, it becomes evident that the market is in an overbought state. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or stochastic oscillators highlight the potential for a correction or reversal.
Fundamental Analysis:
Dollar Strength:
The strength of the US dollar should not be overlooked. Any signs of a strengthening dollar could add further downward pressure on gold prices. Monitoring economic indicators and Federal Reserve statements can provide insights into the USD's trajectory.
Inflation Concerns:
With the global economy recovering, there are growing concerns about inflation. While gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, excessively high inflation expectations could lead to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation.
Market Sentiment:
Speculative Positioning:
Analyzing the positioning of market participants, especially institutional traders and hedge funds, provides valuable insights. A significant buildup of short positions in this price range could signal a broader market sentiment leaning towards a bearish outlook.
News and Events:
Keep a close eye on economic news and geopolitical events. Any developments that could impact risk sentiment or the perceived safe-haven status of gold may influence the market's direction.
Risk Management:
Considering the potential for market volatility, it's crucial for traders to implement effective risk management strategies. Setting stop-loss orders and closely monitoring the trade as it progresses can mitigate potential losses.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the 2075-2080 price range for XAUUSD presents a compelling bearish opportunity based on both technical and fundamental factors. However, prudent risk management and continuous monitoring of market conditions are essential for successful trading.
Remember that actual market conditions can change rapidly, and it's important to stay updated with the latest information and adjust your analysis accordingly. Additionally, individual trading decisions should be based on a comprehensive understanding of your risk tolerance, financial goals, and market conditions.
Gold vs USDGood is the most secure ingesting got any invested and thus has a very critical position in the market. USD on the other hand is the most traded currency around the world. No matter what trades take place, be it oil, metals or commodities, gold plays a very vital role.
We have seen a steep jump in the gold and a steep fall on USD which clearly indicates that these are inversely proportional. Very steep changes in these two can bring many changes to the world economy and might affect many investors.
I believe gold will touch its peak levels and then return to 1950 support level gradually , not at once and not in a short time but eventually this will happen. USD will rise and from its 5 months low with all major currency pairs.
I welcome comments and your thoughts to learn more.
Thanks
Gold bulls lack momentum within rising wedge, Fed inflation eyedGold price remains sidelined at the highest level since May 05, making rounds to $2,045-50 during early Thursday, as market players await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index for October. That said, the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD indicator challenge further upside of the XAUUSD within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between $2,055 and $1,987. It’s worth noting that an ascending trend line from mid-November, near $2,017, precedes the $2,000 psychological magnet to act as extra downside filters to watch during the quote’s pullback. Above all, the bullion buyers can remain hopeful beyond the 200-SMA, close to $1,978 by the press time.
On the contrary, a clear upside break of the gold price beyond $2,055 will aim for the yearly high surrounding $2,067. It should be observed that the previous yearly high peak of $2,070 and the year 2020 top near $2,075 are additional challenges for the precious metal buyers to watch during the quote’s further upside. Following that, the XAUUSD bulls could quickly aim for the $2,100 round figure. However, the oscillators signal the need for buyers to take a breather before the next leg up, which in turn highlights each resistance.
Apart from the challenging technical details, the recent improvement in the US GDP also hints at firmer US inflation data, which in turn can help the US Dollar recover from the three-month high prod the Gold buyers.
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) PRICE PREDICTION ( 6 month high ) XAUUSD price trade at highest level in 6 month near $2052 wednesday. As per the RSI ( Relative Strength Index ), it show oversold zone on a 1 Day chart ( TF ). Resistance level of xauusd is $2052 ( highest point of 6 month high ), there is a higher chance of pullback in gold price. Support is seen in middle of the september high of $2022 which was the important resistance level in 1 day TF. If we talking about 50 & 200 simple moving average, it shows golden crossover it means 50 sma is cross the 200 sma from below. The golden crossover formation should keep downside cushioned for Gold price. On upside trend, If it is break the 6 month high $2052 then next level will be $ 2070 as a resistance level. The all-time high of $2079 will be next on gold buyers.
Gold retreats on Black Friday but bulls stay hopefulGold price pares the weekly gain, the second consecutive one, after the Thanksgiving holiday as traders seek more clues to stay bullish amid mixed clues. Also testing the XAUUSD buyers is the cautious mood ahead of today’s preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for November. That said, a downward-sloping RSI line from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals also add strength to the pullback moves. However, a fortnight-long bullish channel formation’s bottom line, close to $1,989 by the press time, challenges the bullion sellers. Following that, the 200-SMA level of $1,959 will be the final defense of the bulls before giving control to the bears.
Meanwhile, the $2,000 psychological magnet and the previous monthly high surrounding $2,010 will test the short-term Gold buyers during the quote’s fresh recovery. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,010, the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to $2,023 at the latest, will prod the upside momentum before directing the bulls toward the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the precious metal’s October-November moves, near $2,054.
Overall, the Gold Price is likely to witness further weakness but the bullish trend remains intact beyond the 200-SMA.
EURUSD BuyFOREXCOM:EURUSD 15m
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!!
XAU price forecast after a week of spikesGold just posted a massive rally of over 2% last week. Experts predict less dramatic price movements in the coming days, given the sharp and sudden movements in gold prices over the past month.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, said he expects gold to continue to consolidate for an extended period of time as geopolitical risks reduce buying pressure. "It's very likely that we won't see any further rate hikes. There could be some rate cuts by next May, but I don't think that will happen. I think the fluctuations in gold prices will be moderate for a while. ”
“Gold prices continue to react to economic indicators, but there is no clear direction for the precious metal. If inflation statistics remain weak and interest rates do not fall, gold will struggle to move higher. I have not seen any other motive other than geopolitics,” expert Pavilonis further analyzed.
Looking at gold prices over the long term, analysts say that despite buying into safe-haven assets amid concerns about geopolitical tensions that helped push gold prices back towards $2,000. remains bullish on precious metals. /oz, is gradually disappearing. Many say expectations for interest rate changes as inflation subsides, the need to buy gold from central banks, and concerns about a near-term recession will provide solid support for gold. .
This week, the US Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. But experts say the gold market is no longer focused on this moment as investors focus on the timing of a rate cut.
Gold trading strategy before CPI newsAccording to a Reuters poll, the U.S. monthly core CPI was expected to rise 0.3% in October, up 4.1% from the same month last year. The estimated intensity for September was similar for both.
This statistical range could strengthen expectations that the Fed will raise rates further in December, raising rates between 5.50% and 5.75%. However, the market continues to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its December meeting and a 75% chance that it will cut rates next July. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said further developments on the data would be really important, especially in ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes.
Ellam said the dangerous risks from the Israeli-Hamas conflict have not yet completely subsided and could easily recur at any time, but as it subsides, data and the economy will return to being more important factors. He said he would come.
Economists at Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in June 2024. These expected reductions are on the order of 25 basis points and will ultimately lead to lower energy prices. The key interest rate will fall to 2.375% by the end of 2025.
Gold price recovery appears elusive below $1,975Gold price braces for the first weekly gain in three while defending the week-start rebound despite the previous day’s retreat from a convergence of the 100-SMA and a two-week-long falling resistance line, currently around $1,973-75 by the press time. It’s worth noting that a one-month-old horizontal area joins upbeat RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals to keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful of crossing the aforementioned resistance confluence. Following that, the metal’s run-up to the $2,000 psychological magnet and then to the previous monthly high of around $2,010 will be imminent. However, the yearly high marked in May around $2,067 and the previous year’s peak of near $2,071 could challenge the bullion buyers afterward.
Meanwhile, a horizontal area comprising levels marked since early October joins the 200-SMA to highlight $1,931-30 as a short-term key challenge for the Gold sellers. In a case where the precious metal drops below $1,930, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its October-November upside, close to $1,910, will precede the $1,900 round figure to act as the final defense of the buyers. It’s worth noting that 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci ratios, respectively near $1,885 and $1,850 could test the XAUUSD bears past $1,900 and before October’s bottom of $1,810.
Overall, the Gold price appears in recovery mode but the upside needs validation from $1,975 and the US data.