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Xauusdanalysis

Gold weekly rotation between 4682 supply and 4420 demand🟡 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (17/01) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but weekly price action has clearly transitioned into a controlled Smart Money rotation. After delivering buy-side liquidity into premium, continuation has stalled. This week’s hot drivers — USD volatility, U.S. yield repricing, and renewed Fed rate-cut expectations amid sticky inflation data and geopolitical hedging flows — are creating ideal conditions for inducement and liquidity engineering rather than clean trend expansion. With risk sentiment fragile and positioning crowded, Gold is behaving typically at extremes: sweeps, fake breaks, and mean reversion, not impulsive continuation. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H4–H1) Current Phase: HTF bullish bias remains valid, but internal structure shows distribution from premium after liquidity delivery. Key Idea: Sell reactions from premium supply, or wait patiently for a deeper pullback into HTF demand to reload longs. Structural Notes: • HTF BOS confirms bullish dominance • Buy-side liquidity already taken above highs • Clear rotation channel forming • Liquidity shortage zone acting as magnet • Discount demand aligns with prior OB + channel support 💧 Liquidity Zones & Key Levels • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4680 – 4682 | SL 4690 • 🟢 OB BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → OB / FVG retest → expansion or deeper rotation 🎯 Execution Rules 🔴 SELL GOLD 4680 – 4682 | SL 4690 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium channel supply ✔ Buy-side liquidity taken above recent highs ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on H1–M15 ✔ Downside BOS confirms distribution ✔ Entry via bearish FVG or supply OB Targets: • 4620 — internal reaction • 4560 — liquidity shortage • 4480 — deeper weekly rotation • Trail aggressively (distribution play) 🟢 OB BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 Rules: ✔ Sweep into weekly discount zone ✔ Strong confluence: HTF OB + channel support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH on M15–H1 ✔ Impulsive BOS with displacement ✔ Entry via refined bullish OB Targets: • 4560 — first reaction • 4620 — mid-range liquidity • 4680+ — continuation if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Premium zones = liquidity traps • Expect false breaks during macro headlines • No entry without MSS + BOS • Reduce risk near HTF extremes 📍 Summary Gold is bullish by structure, but this week is about precision execution, not prediction: • Premium may deliver a Smart Money sell from 4680–4682, or • Discount at 4420–4418 may reload longs for the next impulsive leg. Let liquidity move first. Let structure confirm second. Smart Money controls — patience pays. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for weekly Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
Geopolitical Tensions Keep Gold Bid Macro & Fundamental Context Escalating geopolitical risks, ongoing regional conflicts, and rising political uncertainty continue to drive risk-off sentiment across global markets. In this environment: The USD shows mixed reactions as demand for safety competes with expectations of policy flexibility. Gold remains structurally supported as capital rotates into safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. As long as global tensions remain unresolved, downside moves in Gold are likely to be corrective rather than trend-breaking. Technical Structure (H1) Gold remains in a bullish market structure, confirmed by multiple BOS (Break of Structure). The current pullback is unfolding into stacked Fair Value Gaps (FVG) — a typical rebalancing phase in an uptrend. No confirmed bearish structure break at this stage. Key Price Zones Intraday Resistance: 4,581 Upper FVG: 4,569.369 Mid FVG: 4,545.716 – 4,535.432 Deep FVG / Structure Support: 4,512.551 Scenarios (If – Then) Scenario 1 – Bullish Rebalance If price holds above 4,535.432 – 4,512.551, expect buyers to step in. A recovery above 4,581 would reopen the path toward 4,620+. Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Sweep A deeper pullback into 4,512.551 is still acceptable within the bullish structure. Only a clear H1 close below 4,512.551 would weaken the bullish bias. Summary Gold is reacting to global uncertainty, not just technicals. As long as geopolitical risks persist, buy-the-dip remains the dominant mindset. Risk-off flows favor Gold. Structure defines the bias.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 16, 2025 Momentum Daily (D1) – Daily momentum is currently showing signs of weakening and turning lower. – Yesterday’s daily candle has not yet confirmed this reversal; therefore, we still need to wait for today’s daily close. – If the D1 momentum reversal is confirmed, a bearish trend lasting at least several daily candles is expected. H4 – H4 momentum is currently declining; therefore, the bearish bias on the H4 timeframe remains valid. – Price is likely to continue moving lower until H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone. H1 – H1 momentum is preparing to reverse to the upside. – As a result, a short-term technical rebound on the H1 timeframe can be expected. Wave Structure Daily (D1) Wave Structure – On the D1 timeframe, a complete 5-wave impulse structure (1–2–3–4–5, marked in blue) is visible, with price currently trading within wave 5 (blue). – The length of wave 5 (blue) is currently positioned between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1–3 (blue). – At the same time, wave 5 is approximately equal in length to wave 1 (blue). – Combined with the weakening and potential reversal of D1 momentum, this confluence suggests that the top of wave 5 is likely forming. – After wave 5 completes, price is expected to decline in line with the D1 momentum reversal. H4 Wave Structure – The D1 wave 5 (blue) is subdivided into a smaller 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5, marked in yellow) on the H4 timeframe. – Price is currently trading within wave 5 (yellow). – Wave 5 (yellow) shows signs of extension, with its length approximately equal to wave 1–3 (yellow), and price has already reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel. – In addition, the price structure near the top suggests that a Head and Shoulders pattern is forming. – H4 momentum has already reversed to the downside, and once H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone, price is expected to break below the neckline drawn on the H4 chart. H1 Wave Structure – On the H1 timeframe, price is currently moving sideways for an extended period, creating a noisy and corrective structure. – Based on the Volume Profile, price is trading within a liquidity zone between 4581 and 4640. – At the moment, price is concentrated in the 4581 – 4621 liquidity area and is trading below the green POC line, indicating that sellers are temporarily in control. – The current H1 momentum rebound is very important. – If H1 momentum moves into the overbought zone but price fails to break above 4621, this area will be considered a valid sell opportunity. Trading Plan – Sell Zone: 4611 – 4613 – Stop Loss: 4631 – Take Profit 1: 4520 – Take Profit 2: 4473 – Take Profit 3: 4317 – The main downside target is the D1 wave 4 (blue) area around 4317, which is typically the level price retraces to following a completed 5-wave impulse.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
Gold fluctuates between 4672 resistance and 4560 support.🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/01) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but intraday price action has shifted into controlled rotation. With today’s hot drivers — USD volatility, U.S. yield fluctuations, and ongoing Fed rate-cut speculation — Smart Money is no longer pushing continuation. Instead, liquidity is being engineered around premium and discount zones. Ahead of U.S. macro headlines and inflation-linked expectations, Gold is behaving typically at extremes: inducement, stop-hunts, and mean reversion rather than impulsive trend extension. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1–M15) Current Phase: HTF bullish bias intact, while intraday structure shows corrective rotation after buy-side liquidity was taken. Key Idea: Look for distribution from premium supply or a deeper pullback into discount demand for buying/entry reloads. Structural Notes: • HTF BOS confirms bullish dominance • Buy-side liquidity already delivered • Price rotating, not expanding impulsively • Internal FVG acting as downside magnet • Discount demand aligns with prior OB support 💧 Liquidity Zones & Triggers • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4670 – 4672 | SL 4680 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4561 – 4559 | SL 4551 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → OB/FVG retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules 🔴 SELL GOLD 4670 – 4672 | SL 4680 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium supply ✔ Buy-side liquidity taken above highs ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS ✔ Entry via bearish FVG or supply OB Targets: • 4620 — internal reaction • 4585 — liquidity pool • Trail aggressively (distribution play) 🟢 BUY GOLD 4561 – 4559 | SL 4551 Rules: ✔ Sweep into discount demand ✔ Confluence with OB + FVG ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Strong upside BOS with displacement ✔ Entry via refined bullish OB Targets: • 4620 — first reaction • 4670 — internal liquidity • 4700+ — continuation if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Premium zones = liquidity traps • Expect fake breaks during news volatility • No entry without MSS + BOS • Reduce size near extremes 📍 Summary Gold is bullish by structure, but today is about execution, not prediction: • Premium may deliver a Smart Money sell from 4670–4672, or • Discount at 4561–4559 may reload buying/entry for the next leg higher. Let liquidity move first. Let structure confirm second. Smart Money controls — patience pays. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
2
Gold Before CPI: Top or Trap?Catching Gold’s Top Before CPI: A Good Trade or a Psychological Trap? 🧭 1. STRATEGIC CONTEXT Primary trend: GOLD remains in an uptrend; the higher-timeframe structure is still intact. Macro backdrop: CPI tonight may cause short-term volatility. However, geopolitics is currently a stronger driver than CPI. Key geopolitical risks: Greenland tensions → escalating global strategic rivalry. Protests in Iran, power and internet cuts → rising Middle East risks. 👉 Strategic implication: Gold continues to be supported as a safe-haven asset → pullbacks are for buying, not for chasing shorts. 📊 2. CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE Price is: Holding the ascending trendline Consolidating in a box, compressing ahead of CPI Market condition: High probability of false breakouts Top-catching traps are very likely before the news 📍 3. KEY PRICE LEVELS 🔴 RESISTANCE 4,680 – 4,700 → Previous high / ATH zone → Reactive sells only if clear rejection appears 4,655 – 4,660 → Intermediate resistance, easily swept pre-CPI 🟣 CONSOLIDATION BOX 4,595 – 4,630 → Sideways range ahead of CPI → No FOMO inside the box 🟢 SUPPORT 4,545 – 4,550 → Major confluence support 4,480 → Medium-term support, trendline retest 4,420 → Deep support, last bullish structure zone 📝 4. IMPORTANT NOTES Higher CPI: May trigger a technical pullback ❌ Does NOT automatically mean a top Lower / in-line CPI: Gold may consolidate above highs and break ATH Selling before CPI: → Reactive scalps only, no holding Buying: → Only when price reaches key zones with clear reaction 🎯 5. STRATEGIC MINDSET ❌ Don’t force top-catching while geopolitics supports gold ✅ Focus on risk management – wait for zones – wait for confirmation 🧠 Before CPI: survival > profit
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
XAUUSD – Bearish pressure, monitor breakdown zone (H1)Market Context (H1) Gold is trading inside a descending structure, with price repeatedly rejected from the upper supply zones. The recent recovery attempts remain corrective and lack follow-through, suggesting sellers are still in control in the short term. From a fundamental angle, markets are cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. data, keeping gold vulnerable to downside moves while risk appetite remains unstable. This environment favors sell-on-rallies until structure shifts. Structure & Price Action H1 structure is bearish / corrective, with lower highs intact. Price continues to respect the descending trendline and supply layers above. The zone around 4,581 is a key breakdown level — loss of this area could accelerate selling pressure. Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – SELL Continuation Preferred SELL zones: 4,607 – 4,618 4,634 area (strong supply cap) Look for bearish reactions or rejection signals at these zones. Avoid chasing mid-range moves. Downside Targets TP1: 4,581 TP2: 4,557 Extension: deeper liquidity if momentum expands Alternative Scenario If price fails to break below 4,581 and reclaims 4,618 with strong H1 close, pause SELL bias and wait for structure confirmation. Invalidation H1 close above 4,634 → bearish scenario invalid, reassess market structure. Summary Bias remains bearish while below supply. The optimal strategy is patience — sell at premium zones or wait for a confirmed breakdown to follow momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | November 15, 2025 Momentum – Daily (D1) momentum is currently compressing and overlapping, with early signs of a potential reversal starting to appear. We need to wait for clear confirmation from D1 momentum; once confirmed, the market is likely to experience at least several bearish days. – H4 momentum is currently preparing to reverse to the upside. Therefore, during today’s session, we expect a short-term bullish move lasting at least several H4 candles. – H1 momentum is also preparing to reverse higher, suggesting that in the near term, price may form a short-term bullish move. Wave Structure – On the D1 timeframe, under the newly updated wave labeling, price is currently trading around the top of Wave 5. We continue to wait for confirmation of a bearish reversal from D1 momentum, which is highly likely to mark the peak of Wave 5. – On the H4 timeframe, price action near the top of Wave 5 shows overlapping wave structures. Combined with D1 momentum preparing to reverse lower, this indicates that the bullish trend is weakening. The scenario of Wave 5 developing into an ending triangle is gradually becoming clearer. – On the H1 timeframe, the low of the black Wave 4 has been confirmed around the 4566 price zone. If the current decline breaks below this level, it would strongly suggest that black Wave 5 has already completed and the market has entered a corrective phase. – From the Volume Profile perspective, strong support is identified around the 4581 zone. Together with H1 and H4 momentum being in the oversold area and preparing to reverse higher, we expect the current pullback to be Wave 2 within the bullish structure of black Wave 5. – The target area for the current corrective move is expected to complete around this support region, which is also the preferred area for executing buy positions. – However, due to the ongoing wave overlap, the possibility of Wave 5 forming an ending triangle cannot be ruled out. At this stage, it is still too early to confirm this scenario; therefore, continued observation and confirmation are required. – The upside targets for black Wave 5 remain unchanged at the 4654 and 4706 zones. According to yesterday’s plan, we continue to look for sell opportunities around these areas. Nevertheless, under the current conditions, special caution is required at the 4654 zone, and short positions should only be considered after clear confirmation. Trading Plan – Buy Now: 4591 – 4589 – Stop Loss: 4571 – TP1: 4622 – TP2: 4654
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD (Gold) | BULL VS BEAR | Technical Level Gold (XAUUSD) | Strategy: Buy on Dip & Breakdown Trade | Timeframe: Intraday Buy on Dip Strategy (Trend-Following) * Trade Type: Buy Stop * Entry: 4,603 * Target 1: 4,616 * Target 2: 4,632 * Stop Loss: 4,588 View: * This setup aligns with the higher-timeframe bullish trend. Buying above 4,600 indicates continuation strength, targeting recent resistance zones. Ideal if price holds above the intraday pivot. Breakdown Strategy (Risk-Off Move) Trade Type: Sell Stop * Entry: 4,586 * Target 1: 4,574 * Target 2: 4,566 * Stop Loss: 4,601 View: This trade activates only if key support breaks, signaling short-term bearish momentum and profit booking. Suitable during USD strength or sudden risk-off sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tradewith_ritik
XAUUSD – Pullback or Trend Continuation?Gold is trading inside a well-defined ascending channel, but the recent decline reflects short-term profit-taking after the push from recent highs. Price is now moving toward key demand zones, where the next directional decision is likely to occur. Structure & Price Action The broader structure remains bullish within the rising channel. The current decline is a technical pullback, not a confirmed trend reversal. Price reaction at the demand zones below will determine the next move. Key Price Levels Resistance / Reaction Zone: 4,568.874 Near Demand: 4,538.893 Core Demand: 4,521.158 Deep Demand: 4,503.001 Trading Scenarios (If – Then) Primary Scenario – Pullback & Continuation If price holds above 4,521.158, a short-term base may form, opening the path for a rebound toward 4,568.874 and higher. Alternative Scenario – Deeper Liquidity Sweep If price breaks below 4,521.158, a deeper sweep toward 4,503.001 becomes likely before fresh buying interest appears. Only a clear candle close below 4,503.001 would raise concerns about the bullish structure. Summary Gold is trading at a key decision zone within the pullback. Priority is to read price reaction at demand, not to chase entries prematurely. Trade structure, not emotion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
XAUUSD (Gold) | Technical Outlook | 15th Jan'2026XAU/USD – Gold Technical Analysis Price: 4,604 | Intraday: -0.47% Gold is trading near 4,600 after a minor pullback. While short-term momentum shows selling pressure on lower timeframes, the overall trend remains strongly bullish on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts. Price continues to hold well above key moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200), keeping the broader uptrend intact. Key Levels Resistance: 4,616 → 4,632 → 4,648 Support: 4,598 → 4,586 → 4,551 Pivot: 4,599 Bullish Scenario Above 4,600, buyers may push Gold toward 4,616–4,632. A strong breakout can extend gains toward 4,648. Bearish Scenario Below 4,586, selling pressure may increase, dragging price toward 4,566–4,551 (intraday correction). Intraday Trading Strategy Buy on dips: 4,590–4,600 | SL: below 4,566 | Targets: 4,616 / 4,632 Sell below: 4,586 (confirmation) | SL: 4,616 | Targets: 4,566 / 4,551 Bias: Bullish trend with short-term volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tradewith_ritik
2
XAUUSD Daily Chart – Bullish Trend Intact, Momentum ModeratingTrend Structure Price remains firmly above the rising trendline, confirming a strong medium- to long-term bullish trend. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is still intact. No confirmed trendline break so far → buyers remain in control. 2. Price Action Current price is consolidating near recent highs rather than selling off aggressively — a bullish continuation characteristic. The latest pullback appears corrective, not impulsive. As long as price holds above the trendline and recent higher low, upside bias remains. 3. RSI (14) RSI is around 68, just below overbought territory. Previous bearish divergences appeared earlier in the trend, but none are currently active. RSI holding above 50 supports bullish momentum, though upside may slow short term. 4. Awesome Oscillator (AO) AO remains positive, indicating bullish momentum is still present. Histogram shows some fluctuation → momentum is moderating, not reversing. 5. MACD MACD lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish market structure. Momentum has cooled slightly, suggesting consolidation before the next directional move rather than a trend reversal. Key Levels Immediate Support: Rising trendline / recent higher low Major Support: Prior consolidation zone (mid-range of the trend) Resistance: Psychological and projected trendline extension toward the upper channel / 5,000 zone Outlook Bias: Bullish Short-term: Sideways to mild pullback possible Medium-term: Trend continuation favored unless trendline breaks decisively Bullish continuation remains the higher-probability scenario, with any dips toward trend support likely to attract buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
XAUUSD – Intraday retracementXAUUSD – Intraday Pullback & Continuation Setup | Lana ✨ Gold is entering a technical correction phase after testing the ATH zone, while the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. Today’s move looks more like a controlled pullback to rebalance liquidity, not a trend reversal. 📉 Current Price Behaviour Price has reacted from the ATH supply zone, forming a short-term lower high. The market is currently testing the rising trendline, which is a key dynamic support in this bullish cycle. As long as price holds above structural support, the broader bias stays bullish. This correction is technically healthy after a strong impulsive leg. 🔑 Key Technical Zones to Watch Sell test / rejection zone: ATH area Short-term sellers are active here, causing the current pullback. Buy zone 1: 4495 – 4498 A former value level and trendline confluence zone, suitable for reaction buys. Buy zone 2: 4442 – 4446 Stronger support and deeper liquidity area if the pullback extends. These zones are where buyers are expected to step back in. 📈 Trading Scenarios Primary scenario: Wait for price to complete the pullback into 4495–4498, then look for bullish confirmation to rejoin the trend. Alternative scenario: If sell pressure increases, the 4442–4446 zone becomes the key level to watch for stronger buy reactions. A clean hold above the trendline keeps the upside structure valid, with ATH retest as the next objective. 🌍 Fundamental Context According to CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in January. The probability of a January rate cut remains very low at 5%. Expectations for March also lean toward no change, with rate cuts still uncertain. This reinforces a stable macro backdrop for gold, where pullbacks are more likely to be driven by profit-taking and positioning, rather than a shift in monetary policy. 🧠 Notes This is a pullback within an uptrend, not a bearish reversal. Focus on buying value, not chasing highs. Let price confirm at key zones before entering. ✨ Stay patient, respect the structure, and let the market come to your levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
Technical pullback in uptrend, waiting for discount buy.Market Context (H1) After a strong impulsive rally, gold is entering a short-term corrective and liquidity-absorption phase. The current decline is technical in nature, following rejection from the upper resistance zone, and does not signal a trend reversal at this stage. From a fundamental standpoint, the broader macro backdrop remains supportive for gold, with cautious monetary policy expectations and sustained safe-haven demand. As a result, downside moves are still viewed as corrective pullbacks rather than the start of a bearish trend. Structure & Price Action H1 market structure remains bullish as long as key demand lows are not broken. Price is pulling back from supply and rotating toward lower demand + Fibonacci confluence zones. No confirmed bearish CHoCH so far → bias remains pullback for continuation. Upper zones remain valid liquidity targets once bullish momentum resumes. Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY Priority is to wait for price to retrace into discounted areas and only BUY after clear bullish reactions and structure protection. Preferred BUY Zones: BUY zone 1: 4,600 – 4,580 (short-term demand + balance area) BUY zone 2: 4,560 – 4,550 (major demand + deep Fibonacci retracement) Note: Avoid FOMO while price is correcting mid-range. Upside Targets: TP1: 4,616 TP2: 4,637 TP3: 4,676 (upper resistance / extension target) Alternative Scenario If price fails to pull back deeply and breaks and holds above 4,637, wait for a retest to look for continuation BUY setups in line with the trend. Invalidation If an H1 candle closes below 4,550, the short-term bullish structure is invalidated. Stand aside and reassess for a new market structure. Summary Gold’s primary bias remains bullish. The current downside move is a corrective pullback following short-term distribution. The MMF approach favors patience and buying at discount zones, trading in alignment with the dominant trend rather than chasing price.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
XAUUSD Momentum Bullish /Dollar Weakness & Geopolitical Risks!Hello traders , The momentum of gold is still bullish , the recent weakness in the US Dollar continues to support upside momentum in Gold. Additionally, US tensions with Venezuela and Russian attack on Ukraine has increased geopolitical uncertainty, the Russia-Ukraine war remains unresolved and periodically escalates — maintaining risk premiums in markets, and ✔ political uncertainty (including issues surrounding Trump and U.S. leadership stability) increases overall market volatility and fear sentiment, Gold is likely to stay in an upward trend as investors continue seeking protection from risk, making it a compelling safe-haven asset in the current global environment. now gold is heading towards (ATH) All time high but this time it may form a new All time high as Price recently broke structure to the upside and price is respecting an ascending trendline. here we can plan a upside entry at 4,480–4,460 demand area (previous structure flip) our targets will be Targets TP1: ~4,549 (first resistance) TP2: ~4,582 (higher resistance zone) TP3: Breakout extension above 4,600
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KingProTrader
Gold oscillates between 4690 supply and 4576 demand.🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (14/01) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish after printing fresh ATH territory, but price action has clearly slowed into rotation. With markets reacting to today’s hot drivers — U.S. inflation expectations, USD volatility, and shifting Treasury yields — Smart Money is no longer chasing upside. Instead, liquidity is being engineered around premium and discount zones. Ahead of key U.S. data and rate-cut speculation, Gold is behaving exactly as expected at extremes: stop hunts, inducement, and controlled rebalancing rather than clean continuation. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1–M15) Current Phase: HTF bullish bias intact, while intraday structure shows corrective rotation after buy-side liquidity was delivered near ATH. Key Idea: Expect distribution from premium supply near ATH, or a deeper pullback into discount demand to reload longs. Structural Notes: • HTF BOS confirms bullish dominance • ATH zone has delivered buy-side liquidity • Price rotating, not expanding impulsively • Internal FVG acting as downside magnet • Discount demand aligns with HTF EMA support 💧 Liquidity Zones & Triggers • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4688 – 4690 | SL 4700 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4578 – 4576 | SL 4568 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → OB/FVG retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules 🔴 SELL GOLD 4688 – 4690 | SL 4700 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium ATH supply ✔ Buy-side liquidity taken above highs ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS ✔ Entry via bearish FVG or supply OB Targets: • 4635 — internal reaction • 4600 — liquidity pool • Trail aggressively (distribution play) 🟢 BUY GOLD 4578 – 4576 | SL 4568 Rules: ✔ Sweep into discount demand ✔ Confluence with OB + FVG ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Strong upside BOS with displacement ✔ Entry via refined bullish OB Targets: • 4620 — first reaction • 4680 — internal liquidity • 4720+ — ATH extension if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • ATH zones are liquidity traps • Expect false breaks during news volatility • No entry without MSS + BOS • Reduce size near ATH — range expansion risk 📍 Summary Gold is bullish by structure, but today is about execution, not prediction: • Premium may deliver a Smart Money sell from 4688–4690, or • Discount at 4578–4576 may reload longs for the next ATH push. Let liquidity move first. Let structure confirm second. Smart Money controls — patience pays. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
XAUUSD – Uptrend remains intactXAUUSD – The uptrend is still intact; we just need that decisive break. Gold is maintaining a strong bullish momentum within the rising channel, consistently printing higher lows. However, price is now approaching a psychological resistance cluster, so the next move could easily include a sharp shakeout to sweep liquidity before the market commits to direction. Macro context In periods where markets are sensitive to news flow and interest-rate expectations, gold often finds support from safe-haven demand. But when price is trading at elevated levels, the optimal approach remains the same: don’t chase candles — only act when price reaches key technical zones. Technical view (H1) The primary trend remains bullish, with price respecting the rising trendline. The current area sits in a “premium” zone (prone to profit-taking / sharp pullbacks). Two key clusters stand out on the chart: Near psychological resistance: 4630–4640 Next psychological resistance: 4765 (expanded upside target) Key levels Near resistance: 4630–4640 Major resistance: 4760–4765 Support / pivot level: 4540 (previous resistance, now potential support) Deeper support: 4400 (base zone, only relevant if a strong reversal develops) Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Trend BUY (priority) Condition: Price holds above 4630–4640 and continues forming bullish structure. Entry: Buy the pullback at 4605–4615 SL: 4595 TP1: 4685–4700 TP2: 4760–4765 This is the cleanest setup: a mild retracement, then continuation with the trend. Scenario 2: Safer BUY on support retest If price spikes down to sweep liquidity: Entry: Buy 4540–4545 SL: 4528 TP: 4630 → 4685 → 4765 4540 is a key line in the sand — as long as it holds, the uptrend stays strong. Scenario 3: Reaction SELL (short-term only) Only consider sells if there’s clear rejection at resistance: Sell: 4760–4765 SL: 4778 TP: 4685 → 4635 → 4540 Or, if price fails to hold 4630–4640 and closes weak: Sell: 4625–4635 SL: 4650 TP: 4545 Conclusion The dominant trend remains bullish, but price is pressing into psychological resistance — so execution must be “right level, right reaction.” The priority remains buying with the trend, and only selling if there’s a clean rejection at 4765 or a confirmed failure to hold 4630–4640. 👉 If this plan helps, follow LiamTradingFX for daily XAUUSD updates as early as possible.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – H2 Technical OutlookXAUUSD – H2 Technical Outlook | Lana ✨ Gold continues to trade within a strong bullish structure, and price action is confirming that the market is still respecting the ascending trend channel on the H2 timeframe. 📈 Market Structure & Trend Context The overall trend remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows clearly intact. Price has successfully flipped the 4445–4450 zone from resistance into support, confirming strong buyer commitment. The impulsive leg toward the current highs suggests we are still in a continuation phase, not a distribution phase. 🔍 Key Technical Zones & Liquidity Buy resistance flip: 4445–4450 This zone has already shown clean reactions and acts as a structural base for further upside. POC Buy zone: 4595–4600 This is a high-volume node where price is likely to rebalance liquidity before the next expansion. Sellside liquidity sits just below current price, making a shallow pullback into value very possible before continuation. 🎯 Bullish Scenarios Primary plan: Look for BUY setups on pullbacks into 4595–4600 (POC) with bullish confirmation. Continuation target: If price accepts above current highs, the next upside objective sits around 4747, where higher-timeframe liquidity is resting. A clean hold above the trendline keeps the bullish thesis valid. 🧠 Notes Avoid chasing price at highs; wait for pullbacks into value and liquidity zones. Trade in alignment with trend + structure, not short-term noise. Patience is key while the market builds liquidity before the next expansion. ✨ Stay disciplined, trade the structure, and let price come to your zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
XAUUSD – Pullback finished, focus on Buy the Dip.Market Context (H1) After a strong impulsive rally, gold has entered a technical pullback phase and is now showing signs of completing liquidity absorption. The recent decline is corrective in nature and does not indicate a trend reversal. From a fundamental standpoint, the macro backdrop remains supportive for gold as expectations of a cautious Fed stance persist and safe-haven demand continues. As a result, short-term downside moves are viewed as opportunities to rejoin the primary bullish trend. Structure & Price Action H1 structure remains bullish, with key swing lows still intact. Price has reacted at short-term demand zones, aligned with Fibonacci retracement and prior balance areas. No confirmed bearish CHoCH so far → bullish continuation remains the preferred view. Upper resistance zones act as liquidity targets. Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY Focus on BUY setups only after price shows clear bullish reactions and structure protection. Preferred BUY zones: BUY zone: 4,596 – 4,580 (demand + Fibonacci confluence) Deeper BUY zone: 4,578 – 4,570 (structure low / strong support) Note: Enter trades only with confirmation. Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range. Upside Targets: TP1: 4,610 TP2: 4,630 TP3: 4,670 (upper resistance / extension area) Alternative Scenario If price does not pull back deeply and instead breaks and holds above 4,630, wait for a retest before looking for continuation BUY opportunities. Invalidation If an H1 candle closes below 4,570, the short-term bullish structure is invalidated. Pause BUYs and wait for a new structure to form. Summary Gold’s primary bias remains bullish. The current pullback is corrective, not a reversal. The MMF approach favors patience and buying at discounted zones, trading in alignment with higher-timeframe flow rather than chasing price.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | January 13, 2025 Momentum – Daily (D1) momentum is currently compressing and overlapping, indicating an overextended bullish move. – This condition suggests that price may still continue higher, however the momentum is clearly weakening, and a reversal can occur at any time. – H4 momentum is preparing to move into the oversold zone, therefore in the near term we may see a short-term bullish rebound lasting several H4 candles. – H1 momentum has already reversed to the upside, which supports the possibility of a short-term bullish move over the next few H1 candles. Wave Structure (Elliott Wave) Daily (D1) – Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the previous high at 4549, however D1 momentum remains in the overbought zone. – Although momentum compression suggests the bullish move may extend, the risk of reversal remains high. – Previous wave-count scenarios have not been fully invalidated, while the new wave count has not yet received strong confirmation. – For this reason, on the D1 timeframe we continue to observe and wait for clearer confirmation. H4 Timeframe – Price is currently trading near the target zone at 4616. – H4 momentum is approaching the oversold area and showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. – At this stage, monitoring H4 momentum is critical. We will focus on structural breaks that align with momentum reversals to confirm the next directional move. – In addition, we can trade along the short-term bullish H4 momentum until a clear break in structure occurs, forming lower highs and lower lows, accompanied by a confirmed H4 momentum reversal. At that point, the probability of a trend reversal will increase. H1 Timeframe – I have drawn a temporary price channel for the ABC wave structure (blue). – Price is currently trading within this channel and is confluent with the 4600 resistance zone. – In this scenario, we should wait for a clear candle close above 4600 before looking for buy opportunities. – If both H4 and H1 momentum move into the overbought zone while price remains trapped below 4600, we will look for sell opportunities. – The 4520 area becomes a potential short-term target, and this zone is also a potential scalp buy area if price reaction confirms. Trading Plan – Wait for confirmation before executing sell setups, as outlined above. – Watch for price reaction at high-liquidity zones if price pulls back toward 4520. Buy Zone: 4522 – 4520 Stop Loss: 4500 TP1: 4549 TP2: 4600
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD (15M) – Liquidity Sweep → Distribution SetupPrice is currently trading inside a clearly defined range. Previous sell-side liquidity has already been swept from the equal lows, triggering a sharp displacement to the upside. This move looks corrective rather than impulsive. Key observations: Upside move is targeting equal highs / range high liquidity. Area near the range high aligns with premium zone + likely supply. Expecting buy-side liquidity grab above highs to trap late longs. Plan & Bias: Allow price to run the highs and complete the liquidity sweep. Watch for bearish shift in market structure (MSS) on lower timeframe near the range high. Look for short entries on retest of supply / FVG after MSS. Target is a range rotation back to sell-side liquidity near the range lows. Narrative: Classic range manipulation. Market clears the downside, entices breakout buyers at the highs, then distributes and reverses. Patience until liquidity is taken, then execution. 📌 Bias remains short after buy-side liquidity is swept.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by YCGH_Capital
1
XAUUSD 1H – Bearish Pullback From Recent Highs, Momentum WeakeniGold (XAUUSD) remains in a broader short-term uptrend, but price is currently in a corrective phase. A descending trendline from the recent high is capping price, showing lower highs and loss of bullish momentum. Current price (~4583) is consolidating below the recent peak near 4635–4640, suggesting distribution rather than continuation. Momentum Indicators RSI (14): Around 50, indicating neutral momentum. Previous bearish divergences near the top warned of the current pullback. No strong bullish reversal signal yet. Awesome Oscillator (AO): Histogram has turned red and below zero, confirming bearish momentum in the short term. MACD (12,26,9): Bearish crossover completed. Histogram is negative and expanding → downside pressure still active. Key Levels Resistance: 4600–4640 (trendline resistance & recent high) Immediate Support: 4550–4530 Deeper Support: 4480–4450 (prior structure zone) Bias & Scenarios Short-term bias: Bearish / corrective As long as price stays below the descending trendline, sellers control the market. A break and close above 4600 would invalidate the bearish correction and reopen upside continuation. A break below 4530 could accelerate selling toward 4480. Summary Gold is showing momentum exhaustion after a strong rally, with multiple indicators aligning bearish on the 1H timeframe. This favors short-term pullbacks or consolidation before the next major directional move. Trend continuation will require a clear bullish breakout; otherwise, downside correction remains the higher-probability scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DrForexPhd