Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | 14/11/2025
1. Momentum
D1 Timeframe:
Daily momentum is showing clearer signs of reversal. We need to wait for today’s close for confirmation. If D1 momentum truly reverses, I expect a strong bearish move next week.
H4 Timeframe:
H4 momentum is preparing to turn upward, so a short-term bullish move may appear on this timeframe.
H1 Timeframe:
H1 momentum is getting ready to reverse downward, so I expect a decline from the current H1 structure.
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2. Wave Structure
D1 Wave Structure
Price is still forming wave X. Yesterday’s D1 candle was bearish but not very strong. Today, we want to see another strong bearish candle to further confirm the possibility of a new decline on the daily timeframe. For now, we continue to observe today’s market reaction.
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H4 Wave Structure
On the H4 chart, we’re seeing two strong bullish candles, which is not what we want to see if the market is forming a top. A proper top should show strong downward momentum, while the pullback should appear as short-bodied candles.
We now wait for the upward reversal of H4 momentum:
• If price breaks above the high, it suggests the current high is not the real top but only a temporary corrective move, and the market may form a new higher high.
• If price does not break the high, then once H4 momentum reverses downward, we can expect a stronger and deeper decline.
(This section keeps your original meaning exactly, with smoother wording.)
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H1 Wave Structure
The recent decline resembles a clear 3-wave structure, creating three possible scenarios:
3 Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Correction Completed
If the recent decline is a completed 3-wave structure, the correction may already be over. Combined with H4 momentum preparing to rise, price may form a new high once H4 enters overbought territory.
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Scenario 2 – Wave A of a Flat or Triangle
If the decline is only wave A, then a larger Flat or Triangle correction may be forming.
• Price may revisit 4248 when H4 momentum reaches overbought.
• After that, price may decline again but not deeply:
o Flat: drop toward 4145 (wave A low).
o Triangle: a shallower drop.
• After completing this correction, price will begin a new upward swing.
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Scenario 3 – Beginning of a 5-Wave Decline
If the previous drop was wave 1 of a 5-wave bearish sequence:
• The current rise is wave 2, meaning price must not break 4248.
• When H4 reaches overbought and consolidates below the peak, price may drop sharply into wave 3.
• Another possibility: H4 and H1 momentum “stick together”; once H1 reverses downward, price may fall aggressively — a typical wave 3 characteristic.
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4. Overall Bias
While multiple scenarios are listed for monitoring,
our primary expectation remains bearish, based on signals observed over the past several days.
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🎯 5. Trading Plan
Sell Zone: 4211 – 4213
SL: 4231
TP1: 4145
TP2: 4096
TP3: 4046
