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Xauusdanalysis

XAUUSD: Hunting the 4,000 LiquidityThe current high-probability outlook for XAUUSD is heavily leaning bearish, with market structure and major indicators flashing a Strong Sell across multiple timeframes. The spot price has broken lower, trading broadly around the 4,020 – 4,070 range after facing substantial downward momentum. Here is the technical breakdown using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and standard structural analysis: 1. Market Structure & SMC Outlook Trend & BOS: The overall higher timeframe structure is strongly bearish. We have seen a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, with price consistently respecting lower highs. Supply & Order Blocks: Strong institutional supply zones are resting higher up in the 4,200 – 4,220 and 4,310 – 4,330 regions. Any short-term bullish pullbacks or Fair Value Gap (FVG) fills into these zones are being heavily eyed by sellers as high-probability entry areas to catch the next leg down. Liquidity Targets: The immediate downside target is the major pool of sell-side resting liquidity sitting around the 4,100 – 4,000 psychological zone. 3. Immediate Pivot Levels (Fibonacci) If you are mapping out intra-day entries or looking for structural failure/validation points, keep an eye on these standard Fibonacci pivot targets: Resistance 2 (R2): 4,105.02 Resistance 1 (R1): 4,093.34 Daily Pivot Point: 4,074.43 Support 1 (S1): 4,055.52 Support 2 (S2): 4,043.84 The Strategic Takeaway The highest-probability plays right now focus on selling the rallies. Buying immediately at current levels carries a lower probability unless you see a clear lower-timeframe Change of Character (ChoCH) or a sweep of the major 4,000 psychological liquidity pool followed by a sharp rejection. Until the asset shows structural signs of a reversal, the path of least resistance remains down toward the 4,000 baseline. Keep a close eye on upcoming macroeconomic data releases (like NFP or FOMC adjustments) that could cause a sudden shift in dollar strength.
TVC:GOLD
by The-AI-Gold-Strat-Master
XAUUSD H1: Weekly Low Se Recovery, 4,246 Important Level Fundamental Analysis Gold recent sell-off ke baad recovery karne ki koshish kar raha hai, lekin overall structure abhi bhi completely bullish nahi hai. Buyers ne weekly low 4,019 ke aas paas strong reaction diya, jis se short-term upside momentum bana. Ab sabse important level 4,246 hai. Agar price is resistance ke upar break karke hold karta hai, toh gold 4,339 ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Lekin agar support dobara fail hota hai, toh sellers phir se market control le sakte hain. Technical Analysis H1 timeframe par XAUUSD abhi bhi broader bearish structure ke andar trade kar raha hai, lekin weekly low se short-term recovery develop hui hai. Main support zone 4,070 - 4,090 hai. Agar buyers is area ko defend karte hain, toh bullish setup valid rahega. Key resistance 4,246 par hai. Is level ke upar breakout aane par price 4,339 ki taraf continue kar sakta hai. Lekin agar price 4,019 ke niche break karta hai, toh recovery structure invalid ho jayega. Key Price Zones Current price: 4,202 Buy reaction zone: 4,070 - 4,090 Weekly low: 4,019 Key resistance: 4,246 Upside target: 4,339 Higher resistance: 4,479 Supply zone: 4,560 - 4,590 Bullish invalidation: Below 4,019 Trading Plan Primary Scenario: Pullback Se Buy Entry: 4,070 - 4,090 bullish confirmation ke baad Stop Loss: 4,019 ke niche Take Profit 1: 4,246 Take Profit 2: 4,339 Take Profit 3: 4,479 Entry Conditions Price 4,070 - 4,090 zone mein pullback kare. Buyers bullish rejection show karein. Lower timeframe par bullish CHOCH appear ho. Agar price 4,019 ke niche break kare toh buy avoid karein. Alternative Scenario: Breakout Ke Baad Buy Entry: 4,246 ke upar breakout aur retest ke baad Stop Loss: 4,200 ke niche Take Profit 1: 4,339 Take Profit 2: 4,479 Take Profit 3: 4,560 - 4,590 Breakout Conditions Price strong momentum ke saath 4,246 ke upar break kare. Retest support ke roop mein hold kare. Agar 4,246 se strong rejection mile toh buy avoid karein. Sell Scenario Entry: Confirmed breakdown ke baad 4,019 ke niche Stop Loss: 4,070 ke upar Take Profit 1: 3,980 Take Profit 2: 3,940 Take Profit 3: 3,900 Sell Conditions Sell setup tab valid hoga jab price 4,019 ke niche break kare aur us level ko reclaim na kar paye, jo indicate karega ki sellers dobara control mein aa gaye hain. Overall View Gold weekly low se recover kar raha hai, lekin abhi bhi confirmation ki zarurat hai. Sabse important level 4,246 hai. Agar price is resistance ke upar breakout deta hai, toh market 4,339 ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Wahin agar price 4,019 ke niche break karta hai, toh bullish recovery invalid ho jayegi. Kya aapko lagta hai gold 4,246 ke upar breakout karke aur higher jayega, ya sellers price ko phir se weekly low ke niche push karenge?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Owen_Steele
XAUUSD: ABC recovery requires confirmation over 4119Gold is trying to recover after completing a sharp bearish wave sequence into the lower liquidity area. From Kelly’s view, the current structure is developing as an ABC corrective recovery, but the market still needs confirmation before the upside scenario becomes stronger. The key point is clear: gold can continue the rebound if price confirms above 4119, but the recovery weakens if price breaks below 4053. ⟡ Market structure Price has reacted from the recent low after a strong impulsive decline, suggesting that sellers may be losing short-term momentum. The current recovery is now moving from the buy liquidity zone around 4084, while price is trying to build a higher-low structure. However, gold is still trading below the Fibonacci resistance area around 4140–4150. This means the rebound is active, but not fully confirmed yet. The zone around 4119 is important because it acts as the first confirmation area for the recovery structure. A candle close above this level would support the idea that buyers are gaining control. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4084: buy zone liquidity and current support area ◌ 4119: bullish confirmation level ◌ 4140–4150: Fibonacci resistance zone ◌ 4206: main ABC recovery target ◌ 4053: bearish confirmation level ◌ Below 4053: area where the recovery setup loses quality ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming an ABC corrective structure after completing the previous bearish wave 5. The current movement can be read as wave A recovery from the low, followed by a possible wave B pullback into the buy liquidity zone. If buyers defend the support area and price confirms above 4119, wave C may start and push gold towards the 4140–4150 resistance first, then 4206 if momentum expands. If price breaks below 4053, the ABC structure weakens. That would suggest the correction has failed, and sellers may regain control. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for bullish confirmation above 4119 before expecting continuation. Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4119 Stop loss: below 4084 or below the confirmed higher low Take profit 1: 4140–4150 Take profit 2: 4206 Take profit 3: 4298 if the recovery expands strongly Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4053 with clear momentum, the bullish ABC setup becomes invalid, and the market may continue the bearish structure lower. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is a conditional ABC recovery setup. The bounce from the liquidity zone is meaningful, but price still needs to prove strength above 4119. As long as gold holds above 4084 and confirms above 4119, the recovery path remains open towards 4206. Gold is building a corrective rebound. But the real confirmation comes only above 4119, while a break below 4053 would shift the structure back to bearish. Share your view below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD UNDER BEARISH PRESSUREGold continues to trade under strong bearish pressure on the H1 chart. After losing the previous support structure, price has formed a clear lower-high and lower-low sequence, showing that sellers are still controlling the short-term trend. The current rebound should be treated as corrective while XAUUSD remains below the main Volume Profile resistance. Technical structure On the H1 chart, gold broke below support and swept the lower liquidity near 4,024. Price is now attempting to rebound, but the structure has not shifted bullish yet. The key area I am watching is the POC sell zone at 4,169 - 4,175. This is the main high-volume zone above current price and the cleanest area to wait for a sell reaction. As long as gold stays below this POC zone, the bearish structure remains valid. A rejection from this area can open the next continuation move lower. Important zones POC sell zone: 4,169 - 4,175 Main Volume Profile resistance and preferred sell area. Important resistance: 4,119 First short-term reaction level. Liquidity zone: 4,137 Intraday liquidity area before the POC. Today’s low: 4,024 Current downside reference. Lower trendline target: 3,950 - 3,960 Next bearish extension zone if selling pressure continues. Trading scenario Sell retest at POC 4,169 - 4,175 Entry: Look for sell positions only if price rebounds into 4,169 - 4,175 and shows clear rejection. Stop Loss: Above the POC zone or above the rejection high. Take Profit: TP1: 4,137 TP2: 4,024 TP3: 3,950 - 3,960 This setup is based on the main Volume Profile resistance, where price may meet stronger selling pressure again. Final view The H1 trend remains bearish. The current bounce is only a correction unless price can reclaim the POC zone with strong acceptance. For now, the plan is simple: wait for price to return into 4,169 - 4,175, then look for sell confirmation. Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD | Bearish Structure Remains IntactGold has confirmed a clear CHOCH (Change of Character), shifting market structure from bullish to bearish. Since then, price has been printing lower highs and lower lows, suggesting sellers remain in control. CHOCH is commonly used by SMC traders as an early sign of a potential trend reversal, while FVGs often act as areas where price may retrace before continuing in the prevailing direction. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • Weekly Demand Zone: 4,000 – 4,080 • Fibonacci Retracement Zone: 50% = 4,380 61.8% = 4,430 My preferred scenario is a short-term reaction from the weekly demand area, followed by a retracement into the 50%-61.8% premium zone. If sellers defend this area, it could provide a high-probability continuation setup toward lower targets. 🎯 Bearish Targets: • 4,100 • 4,000 • 3,900 ⚠️ Invalidation: A sustained move and acceptance above 4,430 would weaken the bearish outlook and increase the probability of a deeper recovery. As long as price remains below the Fibonacci resistance zone, rallies look corrective rather than impulsive. What is your bias on Gold this week?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KingProTrader
GOLD HITS NEW LOWS — IS CPI TOO LATE?Gold continues to trade under heavy pressure as sellers maintain full control of the market structure. Since the breakdown below major support zones following last week's strong Non-Farm Payrolls report, every recovery attempt has been aggressively sold, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. What stands out is not just the decline itself, but the absence of meaningful buying interest despite price reaching historically important support areas. From a macro perspective, the market is currently sending a clear message. Strong labor data, stable energy prices, easing geopolitical concerns, and reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts have created an environment that favors the U.S. dollar over gold. While inflation remains elevated, investors are increasingly focused on the possibility that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer rather than rushing toward policy easing. Tonight's CPI report will undoubtedly generate volatility. However, the market is no longer in a neutral phase waiting for direction. The trend has already chosen its side. CPI may influence the speed of the move, create temporary liquidity grabs, or trigger sharp short-term reactions, but it is unlikely to completely reverse a bearish structure that has been building for weeks unless the inflation data significantly misses expectations. The bigger story is that gold is approaching a critical liquidity area after a relentless selloff. This makes tonight's inflation report important not because it determines the trend, but because it may define where the next major liquidity transfer occurs before the trend continues. PRIMARY SCENARIO If CPI comes in near expectations or remains supportive of a higher-for-longer Fed narrative, gold could experience a temporary rebound toward the FVG + Demand + Fibonacci zone around 430x-433x. However, as long as sellers defend this resistance area, the broader downtrend remains intact. Under this scenario, gold is likely to continue pushing lower toward the next major Support + Fibonacci liquidity zone around 390x-395x, where larger buyers may begin to show interest. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO If CPI prints significantly below expectations and reignites aggressive rate-cut expectations, gold could stage a larger corrective rally. Even then, buyers would still need to reclaim multiple broken resistance levels before any meaningful trend reversal discussion becomes valid. At this stage, rallies should be viewed as opportunities for redistribution unless the market proves otherwise. SHORT-TERM BIAS Oversold conditions may trigger a corrective recovery toward resistance. LONG-TERM BIAS Strongly bearish while price remains below major descending trendlines, broken support structures, and key liquidity zones overhead. LucasGrayTrading "Markets do not need a reason to continue a trend. They only need a reason to stop. Until buyers prove they can reclaim control, every rally remains suspect within a confirmed bearish structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD CONTINUES SHARP H1 SELLINGGold is trading under strong bearish pressure after a heavy one-day decline. The H1 chart shows a clear breakdown structure, with price losing multiple support zones and continuing to accept lower levels. From a macro view, gold remains pressured by firm USD demand and cautious market sentiment. However, the chart is giving the clearest message now: sellers are still controlling the short-term structure, and rebounds remain vulnerable unless price can reclaim broken value. Technical structure On the H1 chart, gold broke below the previous support around 4,275 and continued lower after sweeping the liquidity area near 4,256. Price is now trading around 4,180 - 4,190, far below the active POC area near 4,327. This shows that the market has shifted away from the previous value zone and is expanding into lower liquidity. The main resistance is now 4,256 first, followed by the stronger POC retest zone around 4,320 - 4,330. As long as gold stays below these zones, the bearish structure remains active. The next major downside area is the H4 support zone around 4,100 - 4,105, where a technical buy reaction may appear. Key levels POC retest zone: 4,320 - 4,330 Main sell-retest resistance. Liquidity zone: 4,250 - 4,260 Broken intraday support, now near resistance. Current pressure area: 4,180 - 4,190 Price is still trading below value. H4 support zone: 4,100 - 4,105 Main reaction area if the decline continues. Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Sell the retest into 4,250 - 4,260 This is the first sell setup if gold makes a short-term rebound. Entry: Look for short positions only if price retests 4,250 - 4,260 and shows rejection. Stop Loss: Above the rejection high. Take Profit: TP1: 4,180 TP2: 4,130 TP3: 4,100 - 4,105 Scenario 2: Sell deeper pullback into POC If gold rebounds stronger, the cleaner sell zone is 4,320 - 4,330. Entry: Wait for price to test the POC zone and fail to reclaim value. Stop Loss: Above 4,350 or above the local rejection structure. Take Profit: TP1: 4,256 TP2: 4,180 TP3: 4,100 Scenario 3: Buy reaction from H4 support This is only a reaction trade, not a reversal. Entry: Consider longs only if price reaches 4,100 - 4,105 and shows a strong bullish reaction. Stop Loss: Below the H4 support zone. Take Profit: TP1: 4,180 TP2: 4,250 Final view The H1 bias remains bearish after gold broke support and accepted lower prices. The priority is still selling confirmed retests, especially around 4,250 - 4,260 or 4,320 - 4,330. Buying should only be considered if price reaches the H4 support zone near 4,100 and shows clear reaction. Confirmation first. Prediction second.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
(XAUUSD) Rejection at H1 Order Block – Short Setup to Range LowMarket Overview: XAUUSD recently put in a solid bullish recovery after breaking structure (BOS) out of an accumulation RANGE at the lows. However, the price has now run directly into a major RESISTANCE zone and is showing clear signs of exhaustion. Technical Analysis & Setup: Trend Change & Friction: While the intermediate momentum was bullish, the price has encountered a heavy supply zone (Resistance). H1 Order Block (H1-OB): Price has mitigated the H1 Order Block (marked in blue) and is currently respecting a local descending trendline/channel. Price Action: We are seeing immediate rejection candles inside the H1-OB, indicating that sellers are stepping in to defend this level. The Trade Plan:We are looking for a short position executed inside or just below the H1-OB. The projected path (red arrows) anticipates a corrective move downward as buyers take profits and bears take control of the local range. Trade Parameters ParameterLevel / Zone Entry Zone$4,210.00 - $4,212.00 (Inside the H1-OB) Stop Loss (SL)Above the recent swing high / Resistance line Take Profit (TP)$4,198.00 (The yellow TARGET line / local support)
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
GOLD TESTS H4 423X: RECOVERY OR BEARISH?Gold continues to recover from the extreme selling pressure seen earlier this week after finding temporary support around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone. The rebound has been supported by softer inflation expectations, a weaker USD, and some short-covering activity following the aggressive decline that started after Non-Farm Payrolls. However, from a broader macro perspective, very little has actually changed. The market is still pricing a relatively resilient U.S. economy despite recent inflation data cooling slightly. Fed rate-cut expectations have improved marginally, but not enough to trigger a meaningful return of safe-haven flows into gold. At the same time, geopolitical concerns and energy markets have stabilized compared to previous weeks, reducing one of the major drivers behind gold's earlier rally. This explains why the current recovery looks more technical than fundamental. From a market structure perspective, gold has now reached one of the most important decision zones on the H4 timeframe. Price is testing the confluence of the broken descending trendline, Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 retracement, and a previously identified Demand zone. This area represents a major liquidity pocket where the market will likely decide whether the current recovery can extend further or if sellers regain control. PRIMARY SCENARIO The broader structure remains bearish. Gold may continue pushing slightly higher into the Demand + Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 zone, sweeping liquidity above recent highs. However, if sellers successfully defend this confluence area, the recovery is likely to stall and the larger downtrend could resume. In that case, attention returns to the lower Supply + Fibonacci zones, with the market potentially revisiting the recent lows and extending toward deeper liquidity areas below. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO If buyers manage to reclaim the broken trendline and establish acceptance above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, gold could extend its recovery into the higher Demand and FVG zones overhead. Even so, the market would still need to break multiple liquidity levels before a meaningful trend reversal could be considered. SHORT-TERM BIAS Bullish recovery into major resistance and liquidity zones. LONG-TERM BIAS Bearish while price remains below the broader descending structure and major overhead liquidity. At this stage, the market is not confirming a new uptrend. Instead, it is testing a critical decision area where both technical structure and macro sentiment are about to collide. LucasGrayTrading 🚀📉
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
XAUUSD: Wave 2 at Key Decision ZoneGold is currently moving inside a wave 2 structure after the strong recovery from the lower liquidity area. From Kelly’s view, the market is now sitting in a sensitive accumulation zone, where the next confirmation will decide whether buyers continue the recovery or sellers regain control. The key point is clear: bullish confirmation comes above 4,245, while bearish confirmation comes below 4,170. ⟡ Market structure Price reacted strongly from the previous lower base and pushed into the upper area before starting to correct. The current pullback is now holding around the 4,170–4,180 accumulation zone, which makes this area important for the next directional move. As long as gold holds above 4,170, the wave 2 correction can still remain valid. If buyers defend this zone and price later breaks above 4,245, the recovery structure may continue into the next bullish wave. However, if price loses 4,170 with a clear confirmation candle, the wave 2 structure weakens and the market may rotate lower towards the buy liquidity area below. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4,170–4,180: accumulation and current decision zone ◌ 4,245: bullish confirmation level ◌ 4,204: key resistance before confirmation ◌ 4,135–4,145: buy-side liquidity reaction area ◌ 4,118: lower confirmation zone for uptrend recovery ◌ 4,053: deeper sell confirmation level if weakness expands ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing wave 2 after the initial recovery move. Wave 1 created the first bullish impulse from the lower range. The current move can be read as wave 2 correction, where price is testing whether buyers can hold the structure before wave 3 develops. If gold confirms above 4,245, the bullish wave count gains quality, and wave 3 may begin with stronger upside momentum. If gold breaks below 4,170, the wave 2 structure loses strength, and the market may need to search for lower liquidity before rebuilding another recovery base. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for price to confirm above 4,245 before expecting bullish continuation. Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4,245 Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 4,170 Take profit 1: 4,280 Take profit 2: 4,298 Take profit 3: 4,350 if wave 3 expands strongly Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4,170 with clear momentum, the bullish wave 2 setup weakens. In that case, price may rotate lower towards 4,135–4,145 first, then 4,118 or 4,053 if selling pressure expands. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is a confirmation-based wave 2 setup. The reaction around 4,170–4,180 is important, but the market still needs to prove strength above 4,245 before the bullish continuation becomes cleaner. Gold is holding the decision zone now. Above 4,245, the recovery can continue. Below 4,170, the structure turns fragile again. Share your view below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD BULLISH RECOVERYGold is showing a stronger recovery structure on the H1 chart after defending the lower Volume Profile area and breaking back above the previous compression range. Price is no longer moving in a clean sell-off. Buyers are starting to build acceptance above the lower liquidity base. The current structure suggests that gold may continue higher if price holds above the main buy zone and respects the high-volume support areas below. Technical structure On the H1 chart, gold reacted strongly from the lower POC area and pushed back above the previous value zone. The market is now pulling back towards the Buy zone liquidity around 4,154. This is the main area I am watching for a possible buy reaction. If buyers defend this zone, gold can continue the recovery towards the upper liquidity area around 4,363. The rising trendline below also supports the idea that buyers are trying to build a short-term bullish structure. As long as price stays above the lower value zones, pullbacks can be treated as buy opportunities rather than bearish continuation. Important zones Buy zone liquidity: 4,154 Main buy area and short-term decision zone. Buy scalping VAL: 4,105 - 4,115 Secondary support if price pulls back deeper. High liquidity POC area: 4,075 - 4,085 Deeper buy-reaction zone and lower value support. Liquidity target: 4,363 Main upside liquidity target if bullish momentum continues. Trendline support: Short-term bullish structure support. Trading scenario Buy reaction at 4,154 Entry: Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into the 4,154 liquidity zone and shows clear bullish rejection. Stop Loss: Below the buy zone or below the local swing low. Take Profit: TP1: 4,200 TP2: 4,240 TP3: 4,363 liquidity zone This setup is based on the main liquidity support above the Volume Profile base, where buyers may defend the next pullback. Final view Gold is shifting from a bearish sell-off into a short-term recovery structure on H1. The main plan is to wait for price to retest the 4,154 liquidity zone and watch for buy confirmation. If this area holds, gold can continue the bullish correction towards 4,240 and potentially 4,363. Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD — Sell Below EMA Trend From Liquidity Resistance Fundamental Analysis Gold remains under pressure as the market continues to watch USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. data. The current structure still favours sellers while price trades below the main EMA resistance. For now, any recovery should be treated as a technical pullback unless gold can reclaim the key resistance zone with strong confirmation. Technical Analysis On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is still trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This shows that the short-term trend remains bearish, with the EMA structure acting as dynamic resistance above price. Price is also moving inside a descending channel. After the previous bullish reaction from the lower area, gold is now slowing below the EMA zone again, which means sellers may still control the structure. The key sell area is around 4,249 - 4,283. This zone is important because it combines the previous key support zone, liquidity resistance, and the upper reaction area below EMA pressure. If price retests this area and rejects, the bearish continuation setup becomes cleaner. Below current price, the next liquidity zone is around 4,055 - 4,065. If sellers break this area, the next downside target may extend toward 4,024 and then 3,953. Important Key Levels Current price area: 4,178 Main sell zone: 4,249 - 4,283 Key support turned resistance: 4,249 - 4,283 EMA resistance area: 4,205 - 4,300 Nearest liquidity target: 4,055 - 4,065 Key downside level: 4,024 Extended bearish target: 3,953 Invalidation area: above 4,300 Trading Scenario Main Sell Scenario Entry: 4,249 - 4,283 Stop Loss: 4,300 Take Profit 1: 4,055 Take Profit 2: 4,024 Take Profit 3: 3,953 Sell Condition The preferred setup is to wait for gold to retest the 4,249 - 4,283 resistance zone. This is the main liquidity sell area on the chart and also aligns with the broken support structure. A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure. If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 4,159 - 4,150, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,055 - 4,065, followed by 4,024 and 3,953. Entry Conditions Wait for price to retest 4,249 - 4,283. Look for bearish rejection before entering sell. Do not sell directly at the lows without a pullback. If price breaks and holds above 4,300, the sell setup is invalid. Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the EMA structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for price to retest the 4,249 - 4,283 liquidity resistance zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,055, 4,024, and 3,953. Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the sell zone first?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAU_Macro_Pulse
XAUUSD — Doji Reversal From Psychological Buy Zone Fundamental Analysis Gold remains sensitive after a strong bearish move into lower liquidity. The market is still watching USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. data, which may create volatility around the current support zone. For now, the broader pressure is still bearish, but the reaction from the psychological buying zone shows that a short-term recovery may develop if buyers confirm control. Technical Analysis On the 6H chart, XAUUSD is still moving inside a descending channel, with EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 above price. This means the main trend has not fully turned bullish yet. However, price has reached the 4,090 - 4,110 psychological buying zone and formed a doji-style reversal candle. This shows seller hesitation and may support a corrective bounce. If buyers defend this zone, gold may recover toward 4,200 first, then 4,270 - 4,320, where the accumulation zone and descending trendline are located. This area will be important for the next reaction. Important Key Levels Current price area: 4,107 Psychological buying zone: 4,090 - 4,110 Doji reversal area: 4,090 - 4,110 Invalidation below: 4,047 Nearest recovery level: 4,200 - 4,220 Accumulation zone: 4,270 - 4,320 Trendline reaction zone: 4,270 - 4,320 EMA reaction area: 4,323 - 4,450 Higher EMA resistance: 4,566 Trading Scenario Main Buy Scenario Entry: 4,090 - 4,110 Stop Loss: 4,047 Take Profit 1: 4,200 Take Profit 2: 4,270 Take Profit 3: 4,320 Buy Condition The preferred setup is to wait for gold to hold the 4,090 - 4,110 psychological buying zone. The doji candle near this area is an early sign that bearish momentum may be slowing down. A buy setup becomes more valid if price confirms the doji reversal with bullish follow-through, such as a strong bullish candle close, higher low formation, or a reclaim above 4,120 - 4,140. If this confirmation appears, the recovery move may target 4,200 first, then 4,270 - 4,320. Alternative Sell Scenario Entry: 4,270 - 4,320 Stop Loss: 4,360 Take Profit 1: 4,200 Take Profit 2: 4,110 Take Profit 3: 4,047 Sell Condition This is not the main immediate view, but it should be monitored. If gold recovers into the accumulation zone and fails to break above the descending trendline, sellers may react again. A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from 4,270 - 4,320, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure. Entry Conditions Wait for bullish confirmation after the doji candle. A reclaim above 4,120 - 4,140 would strengthen the buy setup. If price breaks below 4,047, the recovery setup is invalid. Watch for rejection if price reaches 4,270 - 4,320. Always manage risk because gold can sweep liquidity before reversing. Overall, the current view is that gold may attempt a corrective recovery after forming a doji reversal candle near the psychological buying zone. If buyers defend 4,090 - 4,110, XAUUSD may recover toward 4,200 first, then 4,270 - 4,320 where the accumulation zone and trendline reaction area are located. Do you share the same view that gold may recover from this psychological buying zone, or are you waiting for stronger confirmation above 4,140?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by XAU_Macro_Pulse
2
XAUUSD - Bullish Recovery Confirmed, Buy Setup Remains Priority Gold is trading around $4,180 after a strong bullish displacement from the weekly low near $4,024. Price has created a clear CHoCH and reclaimed short-term structure, showing that buyers are starting to control the intraday move. From an SMC perspective, gold swept sell-side liquidity first, then reacted strongly from the lower OB and pushed through the previous structure. The current pullback is normal after the strong move up, and the key area to watch is the FVG buy zone around $4,115–$4,135. As long as gold holds above this FVG zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid. The next upside target is the IFVG area around $4,180–$4,200, followed by the higher OB zone around $4,330–$4,350. Buy setup Condition: Gold must pull back into the $4,115–$4,135 FVG buy zone and show bullish rejection. Entry is only valid after lower-timeframe MSS / CHOCH confirms buyers are stepping back in. Entry: $4,115–$4,135 SL: below $4,085 TP1: $4,180 TP2: $4,220 TP3: $4,330–$4,350 Continuation buy setup Condition: If gold holds above $4,180 and breaks back above $4,220 with bullish displacement, a continuation setup can be considered after retest. Entry: $4,180–$4,200 after breakout retest SL: below $4,155 TP1: $4,220 TP2: $4,280 TP3: $4,330–$4,350 Sell setup Condition: A sell setup is only valid if gold fails to hold above $4,115 and breaks below the FVG zone with bearish displacement. Entry: below $4,110 after bearish retest SL: above $4,140 TP1: $4,080 TP2: $4,045 TP3: $4,024 Key levels Current price area: $4,180 Main buy FVG zone: $4,115–$4,135 Lower OB support: $4,075–$4,095 Week low: $4,024 Short-term resistance: $4,220 Main upside target: $4,330–$4,350 Bullish invalidation: clean 1H close below $4,085 My current view is bullish while gold holds above the FVG buy zone. The best Prime Gold plan is to wait for price to return into a clean liquidity area, confirm rejection, then follow the next upside move. No confirmation, no trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Prime_Smc
Gold May Recover Into Fibonacci 0.5 Before Sellers React Again Gold is showing a short-term recovery after sweeping the weekly low area around 4,024. However, the broader H4 structure is still trading under the descending trendline and below the SMA 200, which means the current upside move should be treated as a corrective pullback unless price can break the higher resistance zone clearly. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Gold is still reacting strongly to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and upcoming U.S. data. The current rebound looks more like a technical recovery after sweeping lower liquidity, while the broader market has not confirmed a full bullish shift yet. For now, I prefer using fundamentals as background only and focusing more on price reaction around the key Fibonacci, FVG and trendline zones. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI From an SMC perspective, gold has swept the lower liquidity near the weekly low around 4,024 and created a strong rebound. This reaction shows that buyers are active in the lower zone, but price is now approaching a more important decision area above. The current buy zone around 4,160 – 4,182 is holding as short-term support. As long as price stays above this zone, gold may continue its corrective move toward the FVG and Fibonacci 0.5 area around 4,280 – 4,312. This upper area is very important because it combines several technical factors: Fibonacci 0.5 retracement, FVG, previous liquidity, and the descending trendline. If price reaches this zone and starts to reject, it may become the main sell reaction area. The bigger trend is still bearish while gold remains below the trendline and below the 4,363 buyside liquidity. A clean break above the sell zone would weaken the bearish view, but if sellers defend the Fibonacci area, gold may continue lower again toward 4,182, 4,116 and possibly back to the weekly low. KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH Current price area: 4,194 Short-term support / Buy zone: 4,160 – 4,182 Breakout level: 4,116 Fibonacci 0.5 / FVG sell zone: 4,280 – 4,312 Trendline reaction area: 4,280 – 4,312 Major buyside liquidity: 4,363 Nearest downside target: 4,182 Secondary downside target: 4,116 Weekly low: 4,024 Invalidation area for sell view: Above 4,312 – 4,363 TRADING SCENARIOS Buy Scenario – Short-Term Recovery View If gold holds above the 4,160 – 4,182 buy zone, I will watch for a short-term recovery toward the Fibonacci 0.5 area. Buy Zone: 4,160 – 4,182 Entry Condition: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH. Stop Loss: Below 4,160 or below the nearest swing low. Take Profit: TP1: 4,240 TP2: 4,280 TP3: 4,312 Sell Scenario – Priority Reaction View If gold reaches 4,280 – 4,312 and shows rejection, I will watch for a sell reaction from the Fibonacci 0.5, FVG and trendline confluence. Sell Zone: 4,280 – 4,312 Entry Condition: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe CHoCH. Stop Loss: Above 4,312 or above the nearest swing high. Take Profit: TP1: 4,182 TP2: 4,116 TP3: 4,024 Alternative Scenario If gold breaks below 4,160 – 4,182 with strong momentum, the recovery idea becomes weaker and sellers may return earlier. Sell Condition: Wait for a clean break and retest below the buy zone. Target: 4,116 – 4,024 MY VIEW ON GOLD My current view is that gold may continue its short-term recovery first, with the main upside area sitting around 4,280 – 4,312. This is the zone where I will watch sellers carefully because it combines Fibonacci 0.5, FVG and the descending trendline. The cleaner plan is not to chase price in the middle. I prefer watching two reactions on the smaller timeframe: first, whether buyers can hold 4,160 – 4,182 for a move higher; second, whether sellers appear strongly around 4,280 – 4,312. Overall, gold can still recover in the short term, but the main structure remains bearish unless price breaks above the trendline and holds above the sell zone. Do you think gold will reach the 4,280 – 4,312 Fibonacci zone before sellers react again?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hannah_Marland
Has gold bottomed at 40XX, or another selloff ahead?Gold entered a technical recovery phase after yesterday’s CPI release. However, the key point is that inflation data came in largely in line with market expectations and failed to deliver a meaningful surprise. As a result, the report was not strong enough to change broader market sentiment or trigger a significant shift in capital flows. Instead of rushing back into safe-haven assets, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer signals regarding U.S. economic growth and the Federal Reserve's policy path. This lack of conviction has become one of the main reasons behind gold's persistent decline over the past several sessions. With safe-haven demand fading and liquidity gradually drying up, gold has continued to lose support and slide lower, particularly after the bearish confirmation triggered by last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report. The market eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension zone, where buyers finally stepped in and created a temporary bottom. Although gold has recovered nearly 1,000 points from this area, the rebound remains relatively weak compared to the scale of the previous selloff. So far, the move appears to be driven more by short-covering and technical buying than by genuine institutional accumulation. The broader market narrative remains unchanged: capital is not aggressively returning to gold. Attention now turns to today's PPI and Unemployment Claims data. While these releases may create short-term volatility, they are unlikely to alter the dominant trend unless they significantly reshape expectations regarding Fed policy and economic growth. PRIMARY SCENARIO Gold continues to recover from the Supply + Fibonacci 1.618 zone, seeking liquidity at the overhead Demand + Fibonacci resistance areas. If sellers successfully defend these zones, the broader bearish trend is likely to resume. The market could then continue toward the next major liquidity targets around 400x–392x, where larger support and liquidity pools remain. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO If PPI comes in significantly weaker than expected and unemployment claims rise sharply, gold could extend its recovery into higher demand zones. However, any bullish move should still be viewed as corrective until price can reclaim major resistance levels and invalidate the current bearish structure. SHORT-TERM BIAS Bullish recovery toward overhead resistance and liquidity zones. LONG-TERM BIAS Still bearish while price remains below key liquidity areas and fails to reclaim the broader descending structure. Current rallies should be viewed as corrective moves within a larger downtrend until proven otherwise. LucasGrayTrading 🚀📉
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
XAUUSD Bearish Structure Continues, Sell Setup Remains Priority Gold is trading around $4,094 after a strong bearish displacement and multiple MSS confirmations to the downside. The current 2H structure remains bearish, with price still moving below the previous buy-side liquidity at $4,363. From an SMC perspective, gold has broken below several key structures and is now consolidating inside a short-term liquidity zone. This reaction can create a small pullback, but the main direction is still bearish while price stays below the sell zone at $4,121–$4,134. The key plan is to wait for price to retest the sell zone, confirm rejection, then follow the next downside move toward the weak low and deeper sell-side liquidity. Sell setup Condition: Gold pulls back into the $4,121–$4,134 sell zone and shows bearish rejection with lower-timeframe MSS / CHOCH. Entry: $4,121–$4,134 SL: above $4,155 TP1: $4,045 TP2: $4,024 TP3: $4,000 Continuation sell setup Condition: If gold breaks below $4,024 and retests this level as resistance, bearish continuation remains valid. Entry: below $4,024 after retest SL: above $4,050 TP1: $4,000 TP2: $3,960 TP3: $3,928 Buy setup Condition: A buy setup is only considered if gold sweeps the $3,928 liquidity zone and prints a clear bullish MSS / CHOCH. This is only a reaction setup, not the main trend. Entry: $3,928–$3,950 after liquidity sweep confirmation SL: below $3,900 TP1: $4,000 TP2: $4,045 TP3: $4,121 Key levels Current price area: $4,094 Sell zone: $4,121–$4,134 Weak low: $4,024 Sell-side liquidity: $4,000 Main liquidity target: $3,928 Buy-side liquidity: $4,363 Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,155 My current view remains bearish. Gold is still trading under a strong downside structure, and the best Prime Gold plan is to wait for price to retest the sell zone before looking for continuation. No confirmation, no trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold_Prime_Smc
Has gold's big short started or just fear?Following last week's aggressive post-Non-Farm selloff, gold has entered a short-term stabilization phase as safe-haven demand continues to fade. Ongoing ceasefire developments have reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while stable oil prices have eased immediate inflation concerns from the energy sector. At the same time, resilient U.S. labor data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. From a macro perspective, market attention is now shifting toward this week's CPI and PPI inflation reports. These releases are likely to become the primary drivers of sentiment, determining whether the Fed can maintain its hawkish stance through the summer. As long as inflation remains elevated, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are likely to stay supported, limiting upside potential for gold. Technically, the sharp Non-Farm decline broke several key support levels and pushed gold into lower liquidity territory. However, after such an aggressive move, markets often require a corrective rebound to rebalance positioning before establishing the next directional trend. Gold is currently reacting from the 427x support area and appears to be building a recovery toward overhead liquidity zones. PRIMARY SCENARIO The preferred scenario remains a technical recovery from current support toward the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance zone around 437x–439x. This area represents a major confluence of bearish structure, broken trendline resistance, and Fibonacci retracement levels. If sellers successfully defend this region, the broader downtrend could resume, targeting the 427x support zone and potentially extending toward lower liquidity areas below. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Should safe-haven demand unexpectedly return or upcoming inflation data weaken the U.S. dollar narrative, gold could extend its recovery beyond 439x and challenge the Demand + Fibonacci zone around 443x–445x. Nevertheless, this remains the lower-probability outcome while both H2 and H4 structures continue to favor the downside. SHORT-TERM BIAS Bullish recovery toward resistance. LONG-TERM BIAS Still bearish while price remains below the major descending trendline and key liquidity zones overhead. LucasGrayTrading After a sharp collapse, markets often revisit liquidity before choosing the next direction. Until buyers reclaim key resistance, rallies should be viewed as corrective moves within a broader bearish structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
XAUUSD H1: Bearish Trend, Waiting for the Next Selling Reaction Fundamental Analysis Gold is still trading under pressure as the market continues reacting to the stronger USD sentiment and cautious positioning ahead of important inflation data. After the recent sharp decline, buyers are attempting a short-term recovery from the lower levels, but the present structure has not yet confirmed any complete bullish reversal. At this stage, any upward movement should be considered only as a corrective bounce unless price manages to break and sustain above the important resistance zone with strong momentum. Technical Analysis On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD continues to trade within a well-defined bearish structure. The market has already formed several BOS and CHOCH confirmations, followed by a strong decline from the 4,360 region towards the weekly low near 4,022. This clearly indicates that sellers are still dominating the overall direction. Currently, price is attempting recovery from the low around 4,090. The first short-term liquidity zone to monitor is 4,105 - 4,114. If price sweeps this area but fails to continue upward, selling pressure may enter the market again very quickly. The important sell scalping zone stands at 4,154 - 4,197. This region is significant because it matches with the retracement structure and the reaction area highlighted on the chart. If gold retraces into this zone and gives bearish rejection signals, it may provide a cleaner selling opportunity in continuation with the main trend. If price successfully breaks and sustains above 4,197, then the recovery may continue towards 4,235 - 4,292. Even then, the move would still be treated as a correction unless the bearish H1 structure gets clearly invalidated. Key Price Zones Current price: 4,092 Buy-side liquidity: 4,105 - 4,114 Main sell scalping zone: 4,154 - 4,197 Recovery extension zone: 4,235 - 4,292 Sell-side liquidity zone: 4,320 - 4,345 Higher resistance: 4,479 Major supply area: 4,560 - 4,590 Weekly low: 4,022 Short-term bearish invalidation: Above 4,197 Trading Plan Primary Scenario: Sell From Pullback Entry: 4,154 - 4,197 after bearish confirmation Stop Loss: Above 4,215 Take Profit 1: 4,114 Take Profit 2: 4,050 Take Profit 3: 4,022 Entry Conditions Price should retrace back into the 4,154 - 4,197 sell zone. Bearish rejection confirmation should appear on H1 or lower timeframe. Price should not sustain above 4,197. Market structure should continue creating lower highs. Avoid initiating sell positions directly from the low without a proper pullback. Alternative Scenario: Buy Reaction From Weekly Low Entry: 4,022 - 4,050 only after bullish confirmation Stop Loss: Below 4,000 Take Profit 1: 4,105 - 4,114 Take Profit 2: 4,154 Take Profit 3: 4,197 Buy Conditions This setup is only meant for a short-term reaction trade and not for trend reversal. Price needs to sweep the weekly low region and form a clear bullish CHOCH before any buying setup becomes valid. Without proper confirmation, buying remains risky because the overall H1 trend is still bearish. Gold continues to remain bearish on the H1 timeframe. The better approach is to wait for price to retrace into the 4,154 - 4,197 sell scalping zone and watch for rejection before looking for continuation selling opportunities. Buying near the weekly low should only be considered as a short-term reaction setup. The overall market bias still supports selling on pullbacks while price remains below 4,197. Do you think gold will reject first from the 4,197 sell zone, or will it sweep the weekly low near 4,022 before starting a stronger recovery?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Owen_Steele
XAUUSD – Gold Remains Under Pressure After Liquidity Break Gold is still trading inside a bearish structure after the strong breakdown from the previous consolidation area. The current H4 chart shows that sellers are maintaining control below the descending trendline, while price is reacting near the short-term liquidity area around 4,021 – 4,092. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Gold remains highly sensitive to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and upcoming U.S. inflation-related data. When the market keeps pricing in a cautious Federal Reserve outlook, gold can stay under pressure, especially after a strong bearish technical move. At the moment, the fundamental background does not strongly support aggressive buying. Unless there is a clear shift in risk sentiment or weaker U.S. data, the upside recovery may still be limited and sellers may continue to defend the higher supply zones. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI From an SMC perspective, gold has already broken below several short-term structures and created bearish displacement on the H4 chart. The previous CHoCH areas have failed to support price, showing that the market has shifted into a lower-high and lower-low structure. The descending trendline is still pressing from above, while price is trading below the SMA 200, confirming that the broader momentum remains weak. The current Doji candle near the liquidity zone shows hesitation, but not yet a strong bullish reversal. The nearest upper reaction area is the liquidity zone around 4,161 – 4,182, which also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. If price pulls back into this area and fails to break higher, it may become a clean sell continuation zone. Above that, the FVG area around 4,286 – 4,294 remains a stronger supply zone. As long as gold stays below this region, the bearish scenario remains the main view. On the downside, the market is likely watching the day low around 4,024 and the lower liquidity zone near 4,021. If this zone breaks clearly, price may continue expanding toward the Fibonacci extension target around 3,833 – 3,817. KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH Current price area: 4,082 Nearest support / liquidity: 4,024 – 4,021 Short-term pullback zone: 4,161 – 4,182 Sell reaction zone: 4,161 – 4,182 Major FVG / supply zone: 4,286 – 4,294 Buyside liquidity: 4,363 Main bearish target: 3,833 – 3,817 Invalidation area: Above 4,294 TRADING SCENARIOS Sell Scenario – Priority View If gold recovers into the 4,161 – 4,182 zone and shows rejection, I will watch for a bearish continuation setup. Sell Zone: 4,161 – 4,182 Entry Condition: Wait for bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement from the liquidity zone. Stop Loss: Above 4,182 or above the nearest swing high. Take Profit: TP1: 4,024 – 4,021 TP2: 3,833 TP3: 3,817 if bearish momentum expands. Alternative Sell Scenario If gold breaks directly below 4,021 with strong momentum, sellers may continue to control the market. Sell Condition: Wait for a clean H4 break below 4,021, then watch for a retest and rejection from the broken support. Target: 3,833 – 3,817 Buy Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction A buy setup is not the main view today. However, if gold sweeps the 4,021 liquidity area and quickly recovers back above 4,024, a short-term corrective bounce may appear. Buy Zone: 4,024 – 4,021 Entry Condition: Only consider buying if there is a clear liquidity sweep, bullish rejection candle, and lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH. Take Profit: 4,161 – 4,182 Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,021, the buy idea is invalid. MY VIEW ON GOLD My main view for gold today is still bearish. The chart shows clear selling pressure, price remains below the descending trendline, and the major FVG zones above have not been filled yet. I prefer looking for sell setups after pullbacks rather than buying too early. The 4,161 – 4,182 zone is the key area for sellers to defend. If gold fails there, the next downside target may be the 3,833 – 3,817 Fibonacci extension zone. Overall, gold is still weak unless buyers can reclaim the higher FVG zone around 4,286 – 4,294. Do you think gold will retest 4,161 – 4,182 before continuing lower, or will sellers break 4,021 directly today?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hannah_Marland
XAUUSD - Bearish Continuation, Sell Setups Remain Priority Gold is currently trading around $4,143 after a strong bearish displacement and multiple MSS confirmations to the downside. Price continues to respect the descending channel, showing that sellers are still controlling the intraday structure. From an SMC perspective, gold has broken below previous support and is now moving toward the next major liquidity target around $4,075–$4,085. The market may create short pullbacks, but as long as price stays below the day high liquidity around $4,221 and the OB/FVG resistance zones above, the main bias remains bearish. The priority today is to wait for price to pull back into clean sell zones, not chase the low. Sell setup 1 Condition: Gold pulls back into the first OB sell zone and shows bearish rejection with lower-timeframe MSS / CHOCH. Entry: $4,165–$4,175 SL: above $4,190 TP1: $4,130 TP2: $4,100 TP3: $4,080 Sell setup 2 Condition: Gold makes a deeper pullback into the FVG sell zone and fails to reclaim it. Entry: $4,185–$4,200 SL: above $4,225 TP1: $4,150 TP2: $4,110 TP3: $4,080 Sell setup 3 Condition: If price sweeps buy-side liquidity near $4,221 and rejects strongly, this becomes the strongest sell reaction zone. Entry: $4,215–$4,225 SL: above $4,245 TP1: $4,180 TP2: $4,130 TP3: $4,080 Buy setup Condition: A buy setup is only considered if gold sweeps the $4,075–$4,085 target zone and prints a clear bullish MSS / CHOCH. This is only a reaction setup, not the main trend. Entry: $4,075–$4,085 after sweep confirmation SL: below $4,055 TP1: $4,110 TP2: $4,145 TP3: $4,175 Key levels Current price area: $4,143 OB sell zone 1: $4,165–$4,175 FVG sell zone 2: $4,185–$4,200 Buy-side liquidity / day high: $4,221 Main target zone: $4,075–$4,085 Bearish invalidation: clean 1H close above $4,245 My current view is bearish intraday while gold remains below $4,221. The cleanest Prime Gold plan is to sell pullbacks into OB/FVG zones and follow the structure toward the lower liquidity target. No confirmation, no trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold_Prime_Smc
Gold drops to support - CPI impact or geopolitical issues.The Gold market (XAUUSD) enters a highly volatile Wednesday session as market participants brace for the high-stakes US May CPI data. Market forecasts point toward a headline CPI surge to 4.2% year-on-year—crossing the 4% threshold for the first time since 2023—driven by soaring energy prices, sticky service costs, and tariff impacts. Bond traders are aggressively pricing in a "hawkish Fed," with interest rate futures now reflecting odds of a 25-basis-point hike as early as September, eliminating any hopes for rate cuts this year. However, a fierce tug-of-war is underway. While the prospect of higher-for-longer Fed rates exerts heavy pressure on non-yielding bullion, the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran is providing strong structural safe-haven demand underneath. A lower-than-expected CPI print could instantly crush these hawkish bets, causing a violent short-squeeze. Based on the Bearish Impulse Elliott Wave structure monitored on the H1 timeframe, the core structural levels include: Major Resistance: 4,252.855 – This area acts as the primary overhead Confluence Zone, aligning with the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement cluster. This is the key structural checkpoint where sellers are expected to re-defend the trend. Current Price Area: Trading near the ~4,177.950 handle. Interim Support: 4,108.786 – The Fibonacci Extension 1.272 layer, which serves as a potential bounce zone for a short-term relief rally. Major Liquidity Target: 4,037.146 – The ultimate target for the impulsive Wave (5), perfectly aligned with the Fibonacci Extension 1.618 level. What's your stance on this high-stakes H1 setup? Will the geopolitical shield protect Gold from a hawkish CPI print, or are we sliding straight to 4,037? Share your ideas and charts below!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptionGold_Trader