Gold Prices Likely Supported by Central Bank DemandGold Prices Likely Supported by Central Bank Demand
Gold prices are expected to find continued support from strong central bank buying. Since the start of the Ukraine war, average annual central bank gold purchases have doubled from 500 to 1,000 tons.
The primary drivers remain gold’s role as a crisis hedge, portfolio diversifier, and store of value.
While de-dollarization is not an explicit motivation, many central banks anticipate a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves.
Technical Outlook:
Gold remains in bullish territory as long as it trades above 3365. This supports a move toward 3403, and if the price stabilizes above that level, the uptrend may extend toward 3430 and 3448.
A break below 3364 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift momentum downward, with potential targets at 3347 and 3322.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3403 / 3430 / 3448
• Support: 3365 / 3347 / 3322
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold (XAUUSD) Short Trade Breakdown
Timeframe used 30 min & 1 hour
Reason for Entry:
A clear trendline with 6 solid touch points was respected on both 30 min and 1hr.
Finally, a strong 1hr candle closed below the trendline — this is a major confluence and confirms a breakout.
In my experience, when a trendline is tested multiple times (like 6 times here), the breakout after that usually carries more weight, especially on higher timeframes like 1hr.
Entry taken right after candle close and break of structure.
Target : 3350.96 (based on support level & previous reaction zone)
Analysis of Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart
Historical Trend: The chart displays the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) price movement on a 15-minute timeframe from June 19 to June 22, 2025. The price was in a clear downtrend, defined by a descending trendline, until a recent shift.
Key Levels:
Resistance: The $3,395.724 level (green line) has emerged as a significant resistance following the breakout. A break above this could confirm further upside.
Support: The $3,350.743 level (red line) acted as a major support during the downtrend and was recently breached upward.
Recent Price Action: The price broke above the downtrend line (highlighted with a yellow circle and labeled "TREND LINE BREAKOUT" in red), indicating a potential reversal. This breakout occurred around 12:00 on June 21, followed by a sharp upward move into a consolidation zone (light green).
Projected Movement: The upward projection (blue arrow) suggests the price could target levels around $3,380.00-$3,400.00 if the breakout momentum continues. The consolidation above $3,350.743 supports the bullish outlook.
Volume and Indicators: The chart includes Bollinger Bands (O3,368.320 H3,369.500 L3,367.660 C3,368.750) with a -0.360 (-0.01%) change, indicating low volatility. The breakout suggests increasing buying interest, though specific volume data is not detailed.
Outlook: The trend line breakout signals a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Maintaining above $3,350.743 is crucial for the uptrend to continue. A failure to hold this level could see the price retest the downtrend line or lower supports. Monitor for confirmation of sustained momentum above resistance.
Gold Day Trade analysis - 20-6-2025Gold has decisively broken below the HVZ , confirming a structural shift in momentum. The bias is confidently bearish as the price now trades under key value, rejecting any bullish reclaim attempts. A temporary support exists near 3350, but it lacks strength unless backed by volume and momentum reversal.
Unless gold reclaims the HVZ range, the current structure favors continued downside. The day trade target is set at 3322, which aligns with the next demand zone from prior price action. Any pullbacks toward 3360–3365 can be seen as opportunities to build shorts with invalidation above 3370. As of now, all signs point to further weakness ahead.
Gold on the Rise! – Bullish Setup in Focus The chart shows a repeating consolidation‑then‑breakout pattern, with Gold forming ascending swing structures, consolidating in rectangles (green), then riding higher along a rising trendline (purple). Price has just bounced off that trendline again, signaling a possible new leg up—potentially targeting the upper range near $3,448–3,450. A clear breakout above that level could open the door toward $3,500+.
📍 Trading Plan
🎯 Entry
Long on breakout above recent consolidation highs (~$3,440–3,448).
Alternatively, buy the dip near the purple trendline (~$3,385–3,390), with confirmation (hammer candle, bounce).
🛑 Stop‑Loss
For breakout: just below the top of the rectangle consolidation (~$3,389).
For trendline entry: slightly below recent swing low (~$3,358–3,360).
🎯 Profit Targets
Primary: upper rectangle level (~$3,448–3,450).
Extension: historic all‑time high region (~$3,500) → next major zone.
🎥 Path
Potential minor pullback toward trendline.
Bounce establishes support.
Surge toward top of range.
Breakout with trend continuation to new highs.
📊 Trade Risk & Reward
Target ~60–100 pts above entry, stop ~50 pts below → ideal Risk:Reward ≥ 1:1.2.
📌 Key Levels to Monitor
Level Role
$3,360 Swift dip support (green base line)
$3,390–3,400 Trendline confluence zone
$3,440–3,450 Breakout area & top of rectangle
$3,500 Next major resistance/all‑time high
🧭 Market Context & Drivers
Broad uptrend remains intact amid geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel–Iran situation, which continues to support safe-haven flows
investing.com
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reuters.com
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barrons.com
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forex24.pro
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goldpredictors.com
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Markets are positioning ahead of Fed’s June 18 decision; dovish signals could fuel continuation toward new highs (~$3,500+)
fxempire.com
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Technical structure reflects bullish momentum—ascending wedge patterns with shallow dips and strong trendline bounces
fxstreet.com
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✅ Summary
Bias: Bullish – uptrend intact.
Strategy: Go long on dip near trendline or on breakout above $3,445.
Stop‑Loss: Just below last swing low ($3,360).
Targets:
Near-term: $3,448–3,450
Medium-term: $3,500+
Stay tuned for Fed statements and Middle East headlines—they’ll be catalysts.
XAU/USDPrice action trading is a methodology in financial markets where traders make decisions based on the actual price movements of an asset over time, rather than relying heavily on technical indicators or fundamental analysis. It involves observing and interpreting patterns and trends in price charts to predict future price movements.
GOLD: Further levels using Elliott Wave TheoryWe successfully forecasted the path of gold in our post on May 12th.
Now, GOLD is looking like it's entering an impulse wave.
Wave (1) of this impulse was completed on 23rd May. The price then falls between the zone 38.2% and 50% to form wave (2). This was also predicted by us.
Currently, GOLD is in wave (3).
Now, to get the targets of wave (3), we have two possibilities.
1. Wave (3) goes to 100% and then reverses. This case is of the Terminal impulse. And the further path of GOLD can be predicted later.
2. Wave (3) goes to 161.8% (minimum). This is the case of Trending or normal impulse. And further path of GOLD can be predicted accordingly.
For now, GOLD is looking like going to touch at least the 100% (3490.81) level.
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
This is not any buying recommendations.
GOLD PRICES STEADY AHEAD OF US CPI & TRADE TALKSSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3324
Gold is currently testing the liquidity zone during the Asian trading session, exhibiting signs of a potential false breakout. While the metal is showing signs of recovery, the broader fundamental backdrop remains uncertain.
As of Monday, gold is trading steadily around the 3300 level, supported by a weaker US dollar and cautious sentiment among market participants ahead of upcoming US-China discussions and the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday. Robust Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures for May have strengthened the dollar and diminished expectations for a near term FED rate cut. Nonetheless, ongoing domestic challenges in the US are exerting downward pressure on the currency. Investors are repositioning ahead of the CPI release.
From a technical standpoint, the trend remains bullish. Although the price previously breached structural support, it has rebounded during the Asian session following a false breakdown of both the order block and the 3300 liquidity zone. Price action in the near term will be influenced by the 3300–3335 range.
Resistance levels: 3325, 3343, 3375
Support levels: 3303, 3275
Gold appears to be approaching the 3325–3335 zone for a potential retest. Should the dollar continue to weaken and gold sustain a move above the 3340 level, the bullish momentum may persist. However, caution is warranted-a false breakout within the 3325–3335 area could signal a breakdown of the bullish structure and result in a renewed downward move.
Gold 4 hour Elliot Wave AnalysisThe current state of the market shows that we are in Wave 3. This is currently at 1.618 of Wave 1 possibly making one alert to near the end of this. This is being confirmed by liquidity sweep on the 1 hour time frame at the top. We can enter Wave 4 which shows a 500 pip decline to near 3380 levels. Post this we will start Wave 5 which can take us to 3515 levels which will be Fibonacci extension of 1 of Wave 3. After this it is possible to see a big fall. Will update when we get there.
GOLD: Retesting support will lead to a riseHello to all dear traders, Lucas_Reid here!
Gold has now broken upward out of the wedge and confirmed the recent bullish momentum. A major player is building a trading position above the wedge and is ready to distribute. But the main question is: how long will it last?
Basically, the recent surge in gold prices is due to the tensions in the Middle East and the large-scale missile exchanges between Iran and Israel – attracting safe-haven inflows. Interestingly, gold slightly declined at the end of Friday’s trading session, hovering around $3,368 at the time of writing (which is generally reasonable after the spike). However, the broader macro context still supports Gold in the medium term, with continued demand from central banks and persistent geopolitical risks providing support.
In addition, the Dollar is in a global downtrend and traders are waiting for a decision from Powell (who is under pressure from Trump to cut interest rates).
From a technical perspective, if we look at the big picture, we can see that buyers are in control, suggesting a continuation is likely. The price has broken out of the recent consolidation. The subsequent move was followed by consolidation and a reaction above the breakout level. Theoretically, we can speculate that major players are building positions above the current wedge. This can only imply the possibility of future deployment (distribution).
BUT, failure to stay above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a retracement toward the lower boundary of the channel.
Sincerely,
Lucas_Reid!
Gold Consolidating at Key Support: Is the Next Move a Reversal?XAUUSD 17 June – Gold Consolidating at Key Support: Is the Next Move a Reversal?
After a strong rally to 3,448 – the highest level in 8 weeks – gold faced profit booking and pulled back sharply towards 3,385. However, price is now sitting at a critical confluence of technical zones, and smart money may be preparing for the next strategic leg. Let’s decode the structure...
🌐 Macro & Market Sentiment
Geopolitical heat remains: Israel–Iran tension is far from cooling. Trump's statements about evacuating Tehran and pushing for a new nuclear deal are fueling safe-haven demand.
Fed policy meeting + US Retail Sales ahead: These upcoming events will shape inflation expectations and rate path clarity. Traders are cautious but alert.
Capital rotation: Large funds may be temporarily exiting gold and shifting into oil and stocks—triggering short-term volatility, not trend reversals.
📊 Technical Breakdown (M30-H1 Confluence)
Trend channel: Gold is currently trading within a descending short-term channel after failing to hold above the 3,440–3,448 supply zone.
EMA alignment (13-34-89-200): Squeezing closer, indicating momentum exhaustion and possible bullish crossover if support holds.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) + historical support + ascending trendline align near 3,345 → strong liquidity pocket forming here.
🎯 Trade Setups for Today
✅ BUY Setup (Liquidity Rebound)
BUY ZONE: 3,344 – 3,342
SL: 3,338
Targets:
→ 3,348 → 3,352 → 3,356 → 3,360
→ 3,364 → 3,368 → 3,372 → 3,380+
🧠 Ideal entry if price forms bullish rejection candle in this zone, especially during London open. Look for long-tail or inside bar confirmation.
⚠️ SELL Setup (Scalp-Only if Rejected)
SELL ZONE: 3,440 – 3,442
SL: 3,446
Targets:
→ 3,436 → 3,432 → 3,428 → 3,424
→ 3,420 → 3,415 → 3,410
📌 Only short if there's strong rejection from this supply zone. No blind entry—wait for clear bearish momentum or reversal wick with high volume.
🧭 Market Psychology
Retail traders were trapped on the breakout—smart money likely unloading at highs.
Price is now retracing to gather liquidity. If the 3,344 zone holds, we could see a powerful impulsive recovery.
Don’t trade the noise — trade the zones. Volume behavior around these levels will reveal market intention.
📌 Final Thoughts
This is a classic case of controlled retracement after a breakout. If gold finds support at the BUY ZONE, the next bullish wave could target 3,400+ again. But if the 3,345 area fails, deeper correction toward 3,320 is possible.
🧘♂️ Stay patient. Let price come to you.
✅ Follow structure, respect SL, and trade with clarity.
Gold Trading Strategy for 17th June 2025🟡 GOLD XAUUSD - INTRADAY STRATEGY 🔁
📅 Date: June 17, 2025
📈 Type: Price Action-based Buy/Sell Setup
🕘 Session: Suitable for London / US Market Hours
🟢 BUY SETUP - Long Trade Opportunity
📌 Condition:
🔼 Enter Buy only above the high of the 1-Hour Candle,
✅ After a 1-Hour candle closes above 3405.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 🎯 3413
Target 2: 🎯 3426
Target 3: 🎯 3438
🔒 Stop Loss: Just below the 1-hour candle low (Dynamic – Based on setup)
💡 Ideal for momentum breakouts and bullish sentiment continuation.
🔴 SELL SETUP - Short Trade Opportunity
📌 Condition:
🔽 Enter Sell only below the low of the 15-Min Candle,
✅ After a 15-Min candle closes below 3365.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 🎯 3350
Target 2: 🎯 3338
Target 3: 🎯 3322
🔒 Stop Loss: Just above the 15-min candle high (Dynamic – Based on setup)
💡 Suitable for breakdown traders catching the bearish wave.
🧠 Tips for Execution:
Confirm breakout with volume and trend alignment.
Avoid false breakouts—wait for candle close confirmation.
Use appropriate risk-reward (at least 1:2).
Stay updated with macroeconomic events 🗓️ (e.g., Fed speeches, CPI data).
⚠️ Disclaimer:
📌 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
💼 Trading in commodities and forex involves high risk.
💸 Always consult with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
🚫 We are not responsible for any profits or losses incurred based on this analysis.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Day Trade Analysis – June 16, 2025Gold currently trades around $3,429 after rejecting from the $3,441 zone, which has now turned into a clear new resistance. The recent rally into this zone was driven by panic buying, not rooted in organic demand, as highlighted in the chart. This weak rally structure suggests limited sustainability unless new panic triggers emerge. The HVZ BASE (High-Volume Zone Base) near $3,380 will act as the critical support zone. If price revisits this zone and panic fades, we may see a bearish breakdown below it.
Three key intraday scenarios emerge:
A return to the HVZ base, followed by deeper downside continuation if the panic sentiment disappears.
A choppy range between $3,380–$3,441, with multiple whipsaws, trapping both longs and shorts.
A sharp spike above $3,441 only if panic resurges, pushing price toward the $3,460–$3,480 region quickly.
The dominant bias remains neutral to bearish unless a fresh wave of geopolitical panic reignites another vertical rally.
Gold Trading Strategy for 19th June 2025📈 GOLD Intraday Trading Plan – $XAU/USD
🟩 Buy Setup (Long Position)
Entry: 💰 Buy above the high of a 15-minute candle that closes above $3380
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3394
🎯 Target 2: $3406
🎯 Target 3: $3419
Suggested Stop Loss: 📉 Below $3370 (or use your risk management rule)
🟥 Sell Setup (Short Position)
Entry: 💰 Sell below the low of a 15-minute candle that closes below $3358
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3345
🎯 Target 2: $3335
🎯 Target 3: $3320
Suggested Stop Loss: 📉 Above $3368 (or as per your risk strategy)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
📌 Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before taking any positions. Use proper risk management and position sizing based on your capital.
Gold Trading Strategy for 18th June 2025🟢 BUY SETUP
📌 Condition:
Buy only if a 1-hour candle closes above $3400, and price breaks above the high of that candle.
🎯 Targets:
🥇 Target 1: $3413
🥈 Target 2: $3426
🏅 Target 3: $3438
🔒 Stop Loss: Below $3395 (or candle’s low if using dynamic SL)
🔴 SELL SETUP
📌 Condition:
Sell only if a 1-hour candle closes below $3379, and price breaks below the low of that candle.
🎯 Targets:
📉 Target 1: $3365
📉 Target 2: $3355
📉 Target 3: $3345
🔒 Stop Loss: Above $3385 (or candle’s high if using dynamic SL)
📊 TRADE MANAGEMENT TIPS
✅ Use 1-hour timeframe for setup
✅ Wait for candle close for confirmation
✅ Use trailing SL once Target 1 is hit
✅ Trade with the overall trend for higher probability
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
📢 This strategy is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own analysis and consult a licensed financial advisor. Trading in gold and financial markets involves risk of capital loss. Use proper risk management and only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Analysis of Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 15-Minute ChartHistorical Trend: The chart displays the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) price movement on a 15-minute timeframe from June 22 to June 23, 2025. The price experienced a sharp decline from a peak around $3,369.447, followed by a potential reversal pattern.
Key Levels:
Stop Loss: Set at $3,369.447 (red line), indicating the upper limit to exit a short position if the price reverses upward.
Entry: Positioned at $3,362.463 (gray line), marking the entry point for a potential short trade after the peak.
Target 1: $3,353.009 (green line), the first profit-taking level.
Target 2: $3,340.915 (green line), the second profit-taking level.
Target 3: $3,323.157 (green line), the final target for the short trade.
Recent Price Action: The price peaked near $3,369.447 and began a downward move, forming a potential shorting opportunity (labeled 1-5). The chart suggests a bearish pattern with the price breaking below a support level, followed by a retest (2) and continuation downward (3, 4). The current position (5) indicates the price is approaching Target 1.
Projected Movement: The downward projection suggests the price could reach Target 1 at $3,353.009, with potential to hit Target 2 at $3,340.915 and Target 3 at $3,323.157 if the bearish momentum persists. A break above $3,369.447 would invalidate the short setup.
Volume and Indicators: The chart includes Bollinger Bands (O3,362.860 H3,363.070 L3,361.747 C3,362.295) with a -0.615 (-0.02%) change, indicating low volatility. The pattern suggests a momentum shift, though specific volume data is not detailed.
Outlook: The chart outlines a shorting strategy with clear entry and exit levels. The price is currently in a bearish phase, with potential targets at $3,353.009, $3,340.915, and $3,323.157. Monitor for a break above $3,369.447 to reassess the trade, as it would signal a bullish reversal.
Accumulate and then hit 3500 soonPlan XAU next week: 16 June - 20 June 2025
Related Information:
Recently, US President Trump told Axios that Israel’s attack could help him reach an agreement with Iran. He urged Iran to make a deal, adding, 'There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to bring this slaughter to an end, with the next planned attacks expected to be even more brutal.'
The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment report for June showed that households are becoming more optimistic about the economy. The Sentiment Index increased from 52.2 to 60.5, while inflation expectations declined for both the one-year and five-year outlooks—from 6.6% to 5.1%, and from 4.2% to 4.1%, respectively.
personal opinion:
Gold prices will tend to accumulate at the beginning of the week around 3400, news of Middle East tensions will push gold prices back to 3500 by the middle of next week.
Important price zone to consider :
sell point: 3500, 3536
buy point: 3410, 3376
Sustainable trading to beat the market
XAUUSD – Strong bullish momentum, but key resistance remainsGold on the H4 chart is maintaining a steady uptrend, consistently forming higher lows while respecting the ascending trendline and both key EMAs (EMA34 & EMA89). After a brief pullback, price is now approaching a major resistance zone around 3,441 USD — a level that previously rejected bullish attempts.
The market structure suggests two possible scenarios:
If price breaks above 3,441 USD with strong buying pressure, the uptrend will be confirmed and could extend toward higher levels.
Conversely, if rejected again, price may retreat toward the support zone at 3,347–3,356 USD for accumulation before resuming the upward move.
On the fundamental side, expectations of a Fed rate cut—driven by significantly weaker U.S. retail sales—are pressuring the USD, which in turn supports gold prices in the short term.
XAUUSD – Is a Major Reversal Coming as US Debt Sparks Global ConGold has been stuck in a narrow range for nearly six weeks now... But with Goldman Sachs raising fresh red flags on the US debt situation, Indian traders may want to keep a close eye on what’s brewing beneath the surface...
🌐 MACRO VIEW – US DEBT APPROACHING A DANGEROUS TIPPING POINT
America's financial discipline is under serious stress. The US national debt is expected to surpass even historical wartime highs, with interest payments possibly crossing $1 trillion by 2025 — more than what the country spends on defence or healthcare.
Goldman Sachs has warned that without timely action, the US government might be forced into sudden austerity — which could hit GDP hard without really fixing the debt load.
📉 What this means for Indian gold traders:
A weakening US dollar is often bullish for gold...
Gold’s traditional role as a safe haven and inflation hedge becomes more attractive in times of economic imbalance...
This environment often sees increased interest from Indian investors — both retail and institutional...
📉 TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT (M30 / H1)
Gold price is respecting a downward-sloping channel on the lower timeframes.
A key pivot sits near 3,338.422, with resistance around the top channel line near 3,368.048.
EMA ribbon is sloping down — confirming short-term bearish pressure.
👉 If price fails to break above 3,368, we could see a pullback towards the FVG zone near 3,325.783, or even down to 3,309.256.
✅ ACTIVE TRADING LEVELS
🟢 Buy Zone: 3310 – 3308
Stop: 3303
Targets: 3314 → 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → ...
🟢 Buy Scalp: 3325 – 3323
Stop: 3318
Targets: 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3342 → 3346 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 → ...
🔴 Sell Zone: 3418 – 3420
Stop: 3424
Targets: 3414 → 3410 → 3405 → 3400 → 3396 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380
🔻 Sell Scalp: 3396 – 3398
Stop: 3403
Targets: 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370
🇮🇳 FOR INDIAN TRADERS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
As the US market resumes activity post-holiday, sharp moves in gold can’t be ruled out...
These may lead to either a proper breakout or smart money traps — stay alert!
🔐 Your edge lies in discipline:
Stick to your stop-loss and take-profit plans...
Wait for price confirmation — don’t get caught in the noise...
While short-term pressure remains bearish, any fresh trigger from the US economy could flip sentiment quickly...
Trade with clarity. React with reason. Let the market prove your view.
Stay safe. Stay strategic.
BUY XAU and Take profit 3.421$The price is continuously forming bearish candles on the M15 timeframe, while a false channel breakout appears at the diagonal resistance. The target of $3,421 is considered achievable
On the sell side, crowd participation is high with a downward bias, which is not a favorable choice. Enter a buy position and wait for a take-profit opportunity
Stoploss and take profit in this picture
good luck!1
Sell Area for Short Position on XAU/USD Based on Trading AnalysiBased on the trading analysis chart published by NaviPips on TradingView.com on June 20, 2025, at 23:09 UTC+5:30, here’s a recommendation for a sell area to take a short position on XAU/USD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) as of 11:17 PM IST on June 20, 2025. The chart provides a 4-hour timeframe with key support and resistance levels, aligned with recent price action and technical patterns.
Context and Technical Analysis
Current Price: The chart shows XAU/USD with an open of $3,371.525, a high of $3,371.790, a low of $3,368.065, and a close of $3,369.115, reflecting a slight decline of -0.07% for the period. This suggests a consolidation phase near the current level of approximately $3,369–$3,371.
Resistance Zone: A significant resistance zone is identified between $3,425.000 and $3,457.047, marked by a red shaded area where price has previously faced rejection. This aligns with a potential triple top formation, indicating strong selling pressure at these levels.
Support Zones: Multiple support levels are outlined:
Support 1: $3,250.000–$3,275.000, a key area where price may find initial buying interest.
Support 2: $3,150.000–$3,169.121, a deeper support zone if the decline accelerates.
Support 3: $3,100.000, a psychological and technical level for a potential bottom.
Trend and Pattern: The chart features a descending triangle pattern, with a downward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs (e.g., around $3,425) and a horizontal support near $3,250–$3,275. A break below this support could confirm a bearish move.
Volume and Momentum: The chart includes volume bars and a momentum indicator (not fully detailed), but the price rejection at higher levels suggests fading bullish momentum, supporting a short opportunity.
Sell Area for Short Position
The optimal sell area for a short position on XAU/USD is in the $3,425–$3,457 resistance zone. This recommendation is based on:
Resistance Confirmation: The red shaded area on the chart indicates a strong resistance where XAU/USD has repeatedly failed to break through, forming a triple top. A retest of this zone (e.g., after a bounce from current levels) offers a high-probability entry for a short.
Trendline Rejection: The descending trendline intersecting near $3,425 suggests that a rejection here would reinforce bearish momentum.
Current Price Context: With XAU/USD currently at $3,369–$3,371, a move back toward $3,425–$3,457 (potentially driven by short-term profit-taking or a weaker dollar pause) would align with the chart’s resistance setup.
Trading Strategy
Entry Zone: Sell XAU/USD on a 4-hour candle close below $3,425 or after a clear rejection (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern) at $3,435–$3,457. This confirms resistance holding and initiates the downward move.
Target Levels:
Target 1: $3,250–$3,275 (first support zone, as marked on the chart).
Target 2: $3,150–$3,169 (secondary support for a deeper correction).
Target 3: $3,100 (final support if bearish momentum strengthens).
Stop Loss: Place above $3,460 (just above the resistance high) or $3,470 (tighter risk management) to protect against a breakout above the triangle.
Risk Management: Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. For example, risking 15–25 pips ($3,435–$3,460 stop loss) to target 50–75 pips ($3,250–$3,275). Adjust lot size based on your risk tolerance (e.g., 1% of account per trade).
Confirmation: Wait for a 4-hour candle close below $3,425 or a rejection signal (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing) at $3,435–$3,457 to avoid false breakouts. Monitor volume for increased selling pressure.
Rationale
Powell’s Speech Impact: Following Jerome Powell’s June 18, 2025, speech, where he projected only two 0.25% rate cuts for 2025 with a data-dependent stance, the U.S. dollar may remain supported, pressuring gold downward from resistance levels like $3,425–$3,457.
Technical Setup: The descending triangle and triple top at $3,425–$3,457 indicate a high likelihood of a reversal, with support targets at $3,250–$3,275 aligning with the chart’s levels.
Market Context: The slight decline to $3,369 and consolidation suggest a pause before a potential retest of resistance, offering a strategic short entry.
Risks and Considerations
Breakout Risk: A strong bullish candle above $3,457 could invalidate the short setup, potentially targeting higher levels. Tight stop losses are critical.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing Middle East tensions could drive safe-haven buying, pushing XAU/USD above resistance. Monitor news for sudden spikes.
Data Events: Upcoming U.S. economic data (e.g., retail sales) could influence dollar strength and gold prices, requiring real-time adjustments.
Conclusion
The recommended sell area for a short position on XAU/USD on June 20, 2025, is $3,425–$3,457, with a 4-hour candle close below $3,425 or rejection at $3,435–$3,457 as confirmation. Target $3,250–$3,275, $3,150–$3,169, and $3,100, with a stop loss above $3,460. This strategy leverages the chart’s resistance zone and Powell’s cautious rate cut outlook. Practice proper risk management due to gold’s volatility.
If you’d like a chart to visualize these levels further or additional analysis, let me know!
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact.