POST-FOMC MARKET OUTLOOK | Is Gold Poised for More Gains?🟡 GOLD 08/05 – POST-FOMC MARKET OUTLOOK | Is Gold Poised for More Gains?
After last night’s FOMC meeting, the outcome came in line with expectations — the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. Powell reinforced that there is no urgency to cut rates and that future policy will depend on incoming economic data.
Despite some dovish hopes from the market, the Fed remained cautious — no pivot, no surprises.
🔥 Geopolitical Tensions:
Meanwhile, geopolitical stress between India and Pakistan is escalating again around the Jammu-Kashmir region. This could continue to act as a bullish driver for gold, especially in Asia where safe-haven demand is more sensitive to border conflicts.
🧠 Market View: BUY Setup Still Dominates
Over the past few sessions, gold has shown strong accumulation followed by solid bullish momentum. As long as candle structure remains healthy, buying dips near 338x–336x remains the preferred strategy.
However, if an unexpected catalyst drives a breakdown below 336x with confirmation from candle close, this could invalidate the short-term bullish bias and open the door for a sell setup, targeting the large liquidity gap between 3354 to 3340.
Until then, trade the range — respect top and bottom of key intraday zones.
📉 TECHNICAL ZONES TO WATCH:
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3396
3408
3430
3455
🔻 Support Levels:
3384
3366
3354
3334
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3336 – 3334
SL: 3330
TP: 3340 → 3344 → 3348 → 3352 → 3356 → 3360
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3430 – 3432
SL: 3436
TP: 3426 → 3422 → 3418 → 3414 → 3410 → 3400
⚠️ Key Event Ahead:
Today’s US session brings the Unemployment Claims report — known to trigger high volatility in precious metals. Stay alert, and always wait for confirmation candles before executing trades near critical zones.
✅ Follow for real-time updates and mid-session trade setups.
💬 Drop your view in the comments below – are we going to break higher or revisit liquidity zones?
Xauusdanalysis
Gold Plunges from 3435 After China Rate Cut FOMC Storm Incoming?Gold Plunges from 3435 After China Rate Cut – FOMC Storm Incoming?
📅 May 7, 2025 | XAU/USD Intraday Outlook
Gold faced a sharp decline in early sessions today, dropping nearly 800 PIPS from 3,435 down to the 3,36x range. While the fall appeared aggressive, the macro backdrop may provide clues — especially ahead of tonight's high-stakes FOMC meeting.
🔍 What Triggered the Sell-off?
1️⃣ China Cuts Rates by 10bps Unexpectedly:
Just ahead of U.S.–China trade talks, China slashed its benchmark interest rate by 10bps. While the move supports Chinese markets, it also boosts the U.S. Dollar (DXY), creating headwinds for gold.
2️⃣ Investors Awaiting FOMC Clarity:
Traders are hesitant to buy gold near recent highs, especially with the Fed expected to signal rate direction tonight. There’s growing speculation that today's events are part of a broader setup for potential Fed easing.
3️⃣ Geopolitical Tensions Not Helping Gold – Yet:
Despite renewed tensions between India and Pakistan, and a volatile global climate, gold hasn't responded bullishly — a sign that technicals and macro shifts are temporarily outweighing news-based fear.
📈 Technical Analysis – Dual Scenarios in Play
Gold is now moving in a wide, volatile range. Liquidity grabs at both ends are likely, and traders should adopt a flexible, confirmation-based approach rather than sticking to one directional bias.
🔺 Key Resistance Zones:
3,390
3,402
3,416
3,432
3,444
3,468
🔻 Key Support Zones:
3,365
3,356
3,332
3,314
🎯 Trade Plan – May 7, 2025 (Pre-FOMC Strategy)
🔵 BUY SCALP
• Entry: 3,355
• SL: 3,350
• TP: 3,360 → 3,364 → 3,368 → 3,372 → 3,376 → 3,380
🔵 BUY ZONE
• Entry: 3,332 – 3,330
• SL: 3,326
• TP: 3,336 → 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,348 → 3,352 → 3,358 → 3,365
📌 KEY BUY LEVEL to Watch:
→ 3,314 – 3,312
⚠️ This is a critical Fibonacci zone. If broken, trend structure may be compromised. Use wide SL (~6 PIPS) with open TP structure.
🔴 SELL SCALP
• Entry: 3,430 – 3,432
• SL: 3,436
• TP: 3,425 → 3,420 → 3,415 → 3,410 → 3,400
🔴 SELL ZONE
• Entry: 3,468 – 3,470
• SL: 3,474
• TP: 3,464 → 3,460 → 3,455 → 3,450 → 3,445 → 3,440 → 3,430
⚠️ Final Thoughts:
Today’s FOMC statement will likely dominate market direction for the rest of the week. Volatility is expected to increase sharply. With both macro and geopolitical catalysts in play, risk management is non-negotiable.
🔐 Stick to key zones. Avoid trading the news blindly. Wait for price action confirmation — and remember: capital protection beats every setup.
📌 Follow this post to get real-time updates after FOMC and new breakout zones for Thursday.
GOLD IN PLAY - RISKY ROADS AHEAD BUT GOLD KEEPS SURGINGSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3468
Gold continues to show strength, testing resistance within the established range, with bullish momentum persisting. The price has moved above the flat consolidation line and entered the buying zone, further progress now depends on the actions of the bulls.
The metal is advancing for a second consecutive session, supported by a weakening of US dollar, heightened demand for safe-haven assets, and intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Market sentiment remains fragile due to trade-related uncertainties and regional instability across Asia, as investors look ahead to forthcoming Federal Reserve decisions and remarks from Powell.
Gold is currently breaking out of its previous neutral range. Immediate attention is on the 3369 level and nearby resistance at 3381. The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold. If bullish positions are maintained above these key thresholds, upward continuation remains likely.
Resistance Levels: 3369, 3381, 3408
Support Levels: 3352, 3330
A potential retest of the local liquidity zone around 3352, possibly triggering a long squeeze, cannot be ruled out prior to a resumed upward move. For now, the focus remains on the 3369–3370 area, which currently serves as a critical support zone.
Gold Surges Amid War Tensions Is This the Start of a New Bull 🟡 Gold Surges Amid War Tensions – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?
📈 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook – May 6, 2025
Gold made a strong comeback this morning, jumping over 600 PIPS as investor demand surged in response to escalating geopolitical risks and massive physical demand in Asia — particularly from China and Japan. The current breakout momentum suggests a high probability of new ATHs if macro and political tensions continue.
🔥 Why is Gold Rising Again?
1️⃣ Geopolitical Flashpoint:
19+ Ukrainian UAVs struck Moscow overnight.
The attack came just ahead of Russia's Victory Day (May 9) — a symbolic blow that rattled global markets.
2️⃣ China Ramping Up Gold Imports:
Reports show China has been quietly stockpiling gold at aggressive levels.
Institutional and retail demand has returned strongly to the Asian bullion market.
3️⃣ Fear and FOMO in the Market:
Asian investors are driving early-session buying frenzies.
Technical retracements are being ignored as price accelerates without respecting classic resistance zones.
📊 Technical Outlook – H4 + D1 Focus
Gold has successfully defended the 3312 zone and surged past resistance zones with ease. Current MA13/MA34/MA89 crossovers on higher timeframes confirm a trend reversal and sustained bullish momentum.
🔑 Key Technical Zones to Watch:
🔻 Support Levels:
3355
3335
3313
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3380
3405
3443
3470
🎯 Trade Plan for May 6 – BUY Bias Dominant
🚫 Avoid SELL positions unless confirmed exhaustion appears — momentum is extremely bullish and politically driven.
🔵 BUY ZONE #1:
Entry: 3314 – 3312
SL: 3308
TP: 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340 → 3350 → ???
🔵 BUY ZONE #2:
Entry: 3335 – 3332
SL: 3329
TP: 3340 → 3344 → 3348 → 3352 → 3356 → 3360
🔴 SELL ZONE (High Risk):
Entry: 3343 – 3345
SL: 3359
TP: 3339 → 3335 → 3330 → 3326 → 3320
🧭 Final Thoughts
Gold is currently in hyper bullish mode. Key level 3313 is now confirmed as a volume-based support (VPOC + FIBO 0.5) and will likely be the base for the next wave. As global headlines point to uncertainty, investors are shifting capital back into gold, supported by physical buying from China.
💬 Patience and proper entry are key. Avoid early sell traps. Focus on the Asia-led FOMO rallies and align your strategy with safe-haven flows.
GOLD - Will Geopolitical Shocks Fuel a Bigger Rally?🚨 GOLD SURGES IN ASIA OPEN – Will Geopolitical Shocks Fuel a Bigger Rally?
Gold opened the week with a powerful bullish spike in the Asia session, rallying nearly $30/oz amid renewed global tensions and policy uncertainty. The strong upside momentum marks a potential shift in sentiment after recent corrections.
🌍 What’s Driving the Market?
🔺 Geopolitical Risks Back on the Radar:
Tensions are rising again between Russia–Ukraine and India–Pakistan with no clear diplomatic resolution in sight.
This reintroduces safe-haven demand for gold as global uncertainty climbs.
🔺 Trump’s Pressure on the Fed:
Former President Trump has urged the Fed to cut interest rates sooner, adding further speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting this week.
These combined factors have sparked strong buying interest right from the Asia open, with the yellow metal attempting to reclaim lost ground from previous sessions.
📈 Technical Overview (H1 – H2 Focus):
🟢 Key Support Zones:
3250
3246
3238
3224
3204
🔴 Key Resistance Zones:
3278
3288
3301
3314
🎯 Trade Setup for the Day:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3246 – 3244
SL: 3240
TP: 3250 → 3254 → 3258 → 3262 → 3266 → 3270 → 3280
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3300 – 3302
SL: 3306
TP: 3296 → 3292 → 3288 → 3284 → 3280 → 3270
⚠️ Final Notes:
With the FOMC meeting ahead and geopolitical developments unfolding, traders should expect heightened volatility this week. Gold may continue to attract safe-haven flows if headlines escalate, but any dovish surprise from the Fed could accelerate the rally even further.
📌 Stay alert. Let price come to your zones. Trade the reaction, not the assumption.
GOLD LOSES ITS SHINE - DISTRIBUTION PHASE BEGINSSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3244
Gold breaks below 3270, entering a distribution phase amid a strengthening US dollar. The market appears to be in the early stages of a potential trend reversal.
On Thursday, gold remained under sustained pressure, trading at a two-week low, as market sentiment responded to statements by President Trump regarding potential trade agreements with multiple countries, including China. Growing optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, thereby diminishing demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. Notably, even weak US GDP and inflation figures failed to support gold prices, as investor focus remains firmly on trade developments and upcoming labor market data.
Gold's price trajectory is shifting due to the strengthening of the dollar and evolving macroeconomic fundamentals. A break below the recent local low could further reinforce the downward momentum. The initial downside target is set at 3190. A potential retest of the previously breached consolidation support at 3268 may occur before the downward movement resumes.
Resistance levels: 3245, 3270
Support levels: 3190, 3186, 3167
A break below the local low of 3221 could act as a catalyst for a deeper decline, with 3190 as the initial target. A retest of the 3245–3270 resistance range cannot be ruled out prior to the continuation of the downtrend.
GOLD EYEING A BOUNCE - BULLS PUSH BACK AS DOLLAR DIPSSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3260
Gold is currently forming a local bottom and is not poised to continue its downward trajectory. The price is breaking through downward resistance, driven by a weakening US dollar and a complex fundamental environment.
At the start of the week, gold stabilized above the 3250 mark as investors gravitated toward defensive assets in response to ongoing uncertainties surrounding US trade negotiations with China and Japan, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The dollar’s weakness, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, alongside diminishing expectations for an interest rate cut, is further supporting gold’s demand. The market’s focus remains on developments regarding US trade policies and the potential for a more hawkish stance from the Fed in the coming week.
From a technical standpoint, gold is testing the bottom of the trading range as resistance. Should there be no significant reaction to a false breakout and the price continues to challenge the 3268 level, a breakout and subsequent consolidation above this point could pave the way for further gains, with potential targets at 3292 and 3314
Resistance levels: 3269, 3294, 3314
Support levels: 3243, 3222, 3204
The price is currently undergoing a second test of the 3269 resistance level since the session commenced. Buyers are actively testing this resistance for a potential breakout. If the bulls manage to break through 3269 and establish a solid consolidation above the 3271 level, the outlook for further growth would be favorable. However, a retest of the liquidity zone at 3243 remains a possibility before any sustained upward movement.
GOLD - XAU/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of May 5–9, 2025Technical Analysis
a. Price Structure and Trend
Trend: Gold remains in a broader uptrend within an ascending channel on higher timeframes (weekly / Monthly ), but it’s currently in a corrective phase after failing to sustain above $3,500. The price is testing key support levels.
Recent Price Action: Gold broke below $3,300 and tested a weekly low of $3,260 before recovering slightly. It’s now consolidating near $3,315, with a potential triangle pattern forming, indicating compression before a breakout.
b. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
$3,227: to $3,163 a critical dynamic support. A sustained break below could signal further downside.
Resistance Levels:
$3,384–$3,348: Immediate resistance, previously a support level. A close above could signal a bullish reversal.
$3,400–$3,500: A major Weakly resistance zone, aligning with the recent breakdown level and psychological resistance.
GOLD - Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?💥 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?
As we head into a critical trading week, gold is at a crossroads, navigating through conflicting macro signals and important structural levels. Last week’s developments — ranging from strong US NFP data to China’s unexpected SGX:40B tariff waiver — have significantly reshaped sentiment in the precious metals market.
🌐 Macro Backdrop – Shift in Global Risk Tone
🔹 China’s Tariff Waiver on selected US goods hints at improving trade ties. This eases geopolitical risks and reduces the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.
🔹 Stronger-than-expected NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) further solidifies a hawkish bias for the Fed. A robust labor market may push the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
🔹 DXY & Bond Yields are holding firm. A stronger USD and rising yields typically weigh on gold — unless major risks re-emerge.
📌 FOMC Meeting This Week – Traders are now watching the Fed’s next move closely. Any dovish tone could fuel gold’s rebound. A surprise hawkish tone? Expect further selloffs.
🔍 Technical Landscape (H4 + Daily Focus)
Gold is currently forming a descending wedge pattern, with lower highs and solid support holding around the 3,224 – 3,204 zone.
Last week’s rejection at the 3,277 resistance aligns with macro-driven selling pressure. However, price continues to respect key Fibonacci levels and internal trendline dynamics, suggesting a potential for large breakout movement after FOMC.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,240
3,250
3,264
3,277
3,311
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,224
3,210
3,204
🎯 Trade Plan – Week of May 6th, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3,204 – 3,202
SL: 3,198
TP: 3,208 → 3,212 → 3,216 → 3,220 → 3,225 → 3,230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 → 3,240
⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor This Week:
🏛 FOMC Statement & Powell’s Press Conference
→ Any hint of rate cuts = Gold bullish
→ Any reaffirmation of higher for longer = More downside
💼 Trade Developments (US–China)
→ Further easing of tariffs = Negative for gold
→ Any new friction = Potential rebound
📉 DXY & Bond Yields
→ Keep an eye on Dollar strength. If DXY breaks above 106.5, gold may face deeper pressure.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
The gold market is no longer driven by one-sided risk-off flows. As macro tensions ease, gold is transitioning into a more range-bound, news-driven phase.
This week is all about reaction, not prediction.
Let the market come to your zone. Wait for confirmation before executing. The best trades come from discipline — not prediction.
📌 Follow this account for real-time updates during FOMC and Friday’s CPI preview.
NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?🚨 Gold Pauses at Crossroads – NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?
Gold is entering the US session with a quiet rebound after an intense selloff phase. Following its historic rally to $3,500/oz, the yellow metal has come under significant pressure — not from fundamentals alone, but from massive profit-taking across Asia, especially from retail investors in China.
Such sharp pullbacks are not abnormal after parabolic runs. Instead, this pullback seems like a healthy technical reset before the market processes two major catalysts later today:
1️⃣ The US Nonfarm Payrolls report (May edition)
2️⃣ Official White House comments on tariffs and trade direction
Together, they’re likely to dictate where Gold is heading next — either a retracement deeper into the demand zones, or a renewed upside attempt toward recent resistance.
📊 DXY & Macro Lens:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded strongly from its base near 98.xx, now reclaiming levels near 100.00. Whether it continues higher depends largely on labor data and economic signals from the White House tonight.
For now, traders should remain neutral-biased but responsive — and treat every key level with surgical precision. Use the H1–H2 timeframe for intraday bias and structure-based execution.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3260
3275
3285
3312
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3244
3230
3215
3200
🎯 Trade Plan for Today – May 3rd, 2025:
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3232 – 3230
SL: 3226
TP: 3236 → 3240 → 3244 → 3248 → 3252 → 3256 → 3260
🔵 BUY ZONE B: 3214 – 3212
SL: 3208
TP: 3218 → 3222 → 3226 → 3230 → 3235 → 3240
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3276 – 3278
SL: 3282
TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3250
⚠️ Final Notes:
Volatility today could spike sharply during the US session. With nonfarm data + political headlines colliding at once, this is the kind of session where fortunes are made — or lost.
📌 Avoid emotional trades. Let price reach your zones, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL rules like a professional.
🚀 The real move hasn't happened yet — but it's coming.
Be ready. Be sharp. Trade with discipline.
HEAD & SHOULDERS IN GOLD - WATCH THAT NECKLINESymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3288
Gold, after a sharp decline, is now trading and consolidating at important levels. The recent movement follows a strong sell-off as geopolitical and tariff-related issues between the US and China began to ease. This decline pushed gold back from its all-time high of 3500, with the metal currently hovering near key support.
The market remains cautious, with attention shifting toward potential shifts in FED policy and broader macroeconomic cues.
A Head & Shoulders pattern is in formation, with gold currently testing its neckline around the critical support zone of 3300–3287. A breakdown and retest of this level may trigger further downside momentum, potentially opening the path toward 3220 and 3075 on a positional basis.
Key Resistance Levels: 3300, 3317
Key Support Levels: 3288, 3215, 3122, 3075
From a technical perspective, gold remains within a corrective structure, maintaining a bearish outlook. Attention is now on the Head & Shoulders neckline - if it breaks to the downside and retests, short positions can be initiated.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Plan – Daily TimeframeGold ( FXOPEN:XAUUSD ) has finally broken below the lower boundary of the rising channel after a strong bullish rally that peaked above $3,450. Today's bearish candle closed below the trendline support, indicating potential short-term weakness.
🔍 Technical Highlights:
Breakdown from Rising Channel
Price has broken below the lower channel, hinting at a short-term reversal or deeper pullback.
Immediate Support Zones
Watch the horizontal zones around $3,194 and $3,168 – these could act as short-term supports.
Further Downside Targets
If these levels break, next major supports lie at $3,055 and $2,972.
💡 Trade Ideas:
Bearish Bias Below $3,220
Look for short entries if price retests and rejects the lower channel boundary.
Target Levels: $3,168 > $3,055 > $2,972
Invalidation: Daily close back above $3,250 would negate the bearish setup.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Always manage risk with stop-loss orders and proper position sizing. Volatility remains high, so wait for confirmation candles or retests.
Gold’s Calm Before the US Data Storm – Are You Ready?Consolidation Continues Amid Global Holidays – Is Gold Gearing Up for Another Leg?
🌐 Fundamental Insight:
After last week’s historic rally toward $3,500/oz, gold has entered a cooling phase as markets digest evolving geopolitical developments and economic signals. The recent de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, triggered by President Trump’s plan to ease tariffs on auto parts and imports, has reduced immediate risk sentiment.
China’s response — lifting retaliatory duties on select US goods — further eased tensions, leading to a safe-haven selloff in precious metals. However, with uncertainty still looming ahead of this week’s US labour data (ADP + NFP), investors remain cautious.
Adding to this, today’s Bank Holidays in parts of Asia and Europe are contributing to reduced trading volumes. A sideways market with erratic moves is likely until the US session opens, where higher volume and stronger direction may emerge.
🔍 Technical Picture (H1 – H4 Outlook):
Gold is currently forming a compression pattern between the 3278 resistance zone and the 3196 demand area. Price is holding above key structure support near 3192, indicating buyer interest remains intact.
The market may continue to oscillate in this tight intraday range before US traders step in. All eyes are now on upcoming ADP employment data — often a lead indicator for Friday’s NFP — which could provide the next directional push.
🔺 Key Resistance Zones:
3248
3260
3278
🔻 Key Support Zones:
3230
3225
3215
3196
🎯 Trade Strategy – April 30
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3198 – 3196
Stop-Loss: 3192
Take-Profits: 3202 → 3206 → 3210 → 3215 → 3220 → 3225 → 3230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3276 – 3278
Stop-Loss: 3282
Take-Profits: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260
🧠 Note: Short-term traders may consider scalping within the range, while swing traders can wait for a break and retest of either key zone before committing with volume.
⚠️ Things to Watch Today:
Thin liquidity due to Labour Day holidays across Asia & Europe
ADP report release in the US session (potential volatility spike)
End-of-month candle close — watch out for liquidity grabs and false breakouts
US 10Y bond yields and DXY movements will continue to influence gold sentiment
📌 Final Thoughts:
Gold is in pause mode, but not for long. The market is clearly building energy ahead of high-impact US data. With the broader trend still bullish and structure holding above 3190s, we stay cautiously optimistic — but flexible.
Risk management will be critical today. Expect the unexpected during low-volume sessions and be prepared for sharp moves when the US opens.
📈 Stay disciplined. Respect your zones. And let the data lead the way.
WAITING GAME - GOLD STUCK IN A HOLDING PATTERNSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3307
Gold continues to consolidate within a defined range, with immediate attention on the 3370–3269 zone. With key economic data scheduled for release, the metal is expected to remain within this consolidation band for the next several sessions.
Renewed optimism surrounding US trade negotiations has lifted risk sentiment and strengthened the US dollar. The US Treasury Secretary reported constructive progress in discussions with India, while President Trump’s more measured rhetoric regarding China further supported the dollar. Meanwhile, investors are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of first-quarter US GDP data. Should the data underwhelm, gold may experience a sharp uptick as safe-haven demand intensifies.
Overall, the gold market remains highly reactive to trade headlines and macroeconomic indicators, particularly amid anticipated portfolio adjustments at month-end. In the context of current momentum and corrective movement, a short-term recovery is anticipated from the 0.5–0.7 Fib zone. A possible retest of the 3323–3325 resistance area could precede a continuation of the correction within the prevailing consolidation structure.
Key Resistance Levels: 3323, 3352, 3370
Key Support Levels: 3290, 3270
Traders remain attentive to both the resolution of ongoing tariff disputes and the forthcoming economic releases. While price action remains confined within a consolidation pattern, a rebound from support is the base case scenario. However, if price action continues to compress toward either boundary - particularly toward support, the probability of a breakout from the consolidation base may increase accordingly.
XAU/USD Outlook – Will This Tight Range Explode Soon?🔥 XAU/USD Outlook – Will This Tight Range Explode Soon?
📊 Technical Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a consolidation phase after last week's sharp swings. The market is currently trapped within a tightening structure between 3,274 and 3,336, forming a potential wedge or triangle pattern. This type of structure often precedes a breakout.
Price is still hovering below the 200 EMA on the H1 timeframe, while key support zones are starting to show signs of buying interest. A hold above 3,301 could lead to a potential rally toward the upper resistance levels at 3,352 – 3,366.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,336.767
3,352.159
3,357.689
3,366.067
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,301.370
3,291.885
3,274.779
🎯 Trade Setups:
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3,274 – 3,276
SL: 3,270
TP: 3,284 – 3,291 – 3,301 – 3,336
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3,357 – 3,366
SL: 3,370
TP: 3,336 – 3,301 – 3,291
📰 Today’s Market Focus:
No major economic data is expected today. However, markets may begin pricing in expectations ahead of this week’s key releases — ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
Geopolitical tensions in South Asia and statements from FED officials may act as surprise catalysts for gold volatility.
🧭 Conclusion:
Gold remains stuck in a tight sideways channel. Traders should continue range trading while waiting for a confirmed breakout. A strong breakout above 3,366 or breakdown below 3,274 will set the tone for the next directional move.
👉 Trade smart and manage your risk. All eyes on U.S. data and geopolitical headlines!
XAU/USD Elliott Wave Count: Preparing for Final ImpulseXAU/USD appears to be in a textbook 5-wave impulsive structure on the 4H chart, with the market now completing Wave 4 as a classic ABC corrective flat/pennant.
The impulsive move from the Wave 2 low has formed clear internal substructures, with Wave 3 exhibiting extended price action, consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines.
Currently, price is consolidating in a contracting pattern labeled Wave 4 (A-B-C), which looks to be near completion. Based on wave symmetry and Fibonacci projections, a strong upside move is anticipated once Wave 4 concludes, leading into the final Wave 5 rally.
Entry Zone: 3286.875
Target: 3367.440– 3410.210
Stop Loss: Below 3260.190.
> "Gold (XAU/USD) - Demand Zone Bounce Targeting 3500 "Current Price: $3,319.59
Indicator: 70 EMA at $3,324.95 ➡️ 📈 (still slightly above price = bearish pressure)
---
Main Observations:
🔵 Demand Zone (📦 Buyers' Area):
Between $3,253 - $3,280
Every time price dips here ➡️ buyers react!
✏️ Descending Trendline:
⬇️ Short-term trend is bearish
Price is trying to break above it now (watch closely!)
🎯 Target Point:
$3,500 🏹 (Big upside if breakout succeeds!)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
$3,253 🔥 (just below the demand zone = good protection)
Trade Idea:
✅ Buy near demand zone 🔵 after breakout confirmation 📈
✅ Target: $3,500 🎯
✅ Stop-Loss: $3,253 🛡️
Quick Dots Summary:
🔵 Demand zone is strong (buyers defending)
🔻 Still under 70 EMA (bearish until breakout)
✏️ Watching for breakout of trendline = key signal
🎯 Massive Risk:Reward ratio if it works
⚡ If no breakout and price falls, stop-loss saves capital.
Gold Retreats as Trump’s Trade Talk Flip Sparks CautionGold Retreats as Trump’s Trade Talk Flip Sparks Caution – Friday Volatility Expected 💥📉
🟡 Market Recap & Sentiment
Gold prices jumped over 1% this week, reaching around $3,500/oz, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid a weakening USD and global uncertainty. However, analysts believe this Price surge is driven by greed and needs a healthy correction.
“Gold might consolidate in the near term, but we’re still in a bull market. Dips will be bought,” said analyst Wong.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar and equities are losing their appeal as investors digest contradictory signals from President Trump. He confirmed that US-China trade negotiations are ongoing, while China denied any talks – sending shockwaves across markets and triggering a sharp pullback in gold during the Asian session.
This political flip-flop is adding confusion, and traders are advised to stay cautious before jumping into any positions.
📉 Fundamental Triggers Today
Core Retail Sales (US) – releasing later today during the US session.
It’s also Friday – which means potential for weekly candle closure volatility and liquidity grabs.
Coupled with the ongoing tariff headlines and geopolitical drama, today could be extremely unpredictable.
📍 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 3366 – 3384 – 3406 – 3428 – 3445
Support: 3308 – 3288 – 3270
🔹 Trade Setup Suggestion
🔸 BUY ZONE: 3288 – 3286
SL: 3282
TP: 3292 – 3296 – 3300 – 3304 – 3310
🔸 BUY ZONE: 3270 – 3268
SL: 3264
TP: 3274 – 3278 – 3282 – 3286 – 3290
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3384 – 3386
SL: 3390
TP: 3380 – 3376 – 3372 – 3368 – 3364 – 3360 – ???
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3406 – 3408
SL: 3412
TP: 3400 – 3396 – 3392 – 3388 – 3384 – 3380 – 3370 – 3360
⚠️ Risk Management Reminder
Be cautious today – it’s a Friday with major data and geopolitical uncertainty.
✅ Always respect TP/SL levels.
✅ Let the market show confirmation before entering positions.
Sit tight and let the market come to your zone – don’t rush in with FOMO during uncertain sentiment.
Gold Surge: 80 Price Bounce from Key Support Gold Surge: 80 Price Bounce from Key Support – What’s Next for the Market? 💰📈
Market Overview:
Gold has surged by 80 pips today, bouncing from the support level at the end of the U.S. session yesterday after liquidity was swept at the 3260 zone. Investors are now looking to buy the dip after the 250+ pip drop in gold over the past few days. Currently, after the strong 80 pip rally, gold is consolidating at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, with selling pressure mounting.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3343, 3358, 3376, 3410, 3446
Support: 3210, 3286, 3275, 3230
Market Sentiment:
There’s a strong sell reaction at current levels, which suggests that the price could continue to push lower in both the Asian and European sessions to fill liquidity in the Fair Value Gap (FVG). After the 80 pip rally and 40 pip reaction, the market seems to be consolidating between 3328 and 3320. We expect a price movement range of 80-100 pips today, so caution is advised, especially around key levels at 3376-3378, where a potential sell can be placed.
Next Potential Movements:
If gold fails to break through the 3376-3378 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the downward move. If the 3376-3378 zone holds strong, this could be a good opportunity to sell.
Should the price break through this zone, we’ll observe the next key resistance around 3410. A break above 3410 could signal a reversal to the upside, turning the trend into a BUY instead of SELL.
Today's Strategy:
For today, the focus will be more on SELL opportunities as gold pushes back to fill the FVG liquidity around 3288. Once we see how the price reacts at these levels, we can start planning for BUY entries.
Watch out for Unemployment Claims data from the U.S. later in the session, as this could trigger volatility. Be cautious when trading around news events, especially in a sensitive market.
Trade Setup:
BUY ZONE: 3230 - 3228
SL: 3224
TP: 3234 - 3238 - 3242 - 3246 - 3250 - 3254 - 3260
SELL ZONE: 3376 - 3378
SL: 3382
TP: 3372 - 3368 - 3364 - 3360 - 3355 - 3350
SELL ZONE: 3408 - 3410
SL: 3414
TP: 3402 - 3398 - 3394 - 3390 - 3386 - 3382 - 3375 - 3370
Risk Management:
It’s important to manage your risk appropriately given the current market conditions. Ensure you’re following your TP/SL levels strictly to protect your capital from market volatility.
Gold Faces 200 Pips Drop – Will It Recover or Continue Falling?Gold Faces 200 Pips Drop – Will It Recover or Continue Falling? 🔥📉
Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) saw a sharp drop of nearly 200 pips yesterday, falling from the historic high of around $3500 to $3318. This marks the strongest correction in the recent bullish trend. The market is currently volatile, and the question is whether gold will find support at lower levels or continue its downward movement.
What’s Causing the Drop?:
Fed Rate News: The latest news from the Federal Reserve triggered strong profit-taking, which resulted in the sharp decline.
USD Technical Rebound: The USD has rebounded after significant losses, putting pressure on gold.
Market Sentiment Shift: Investor sentiment changed rapidly, leading to mass sell-offs.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3300-3320 (Critical level for a potential bounce)
Resistance: 3378-3380 (Key resistance area)
Next Steps for Gold:
Support at 3300-3320: If gold holds above this range, a strong recovery could follow.
Break below 3300: A breakdown below 3300 may lead to further declines, potentially towards the next support at 3250.
Trading Strategy:
SELL ZONE:
3378 - 3380
SL: 3384
TP: 3374 - 3370 - 3366 - 3362 - 3358 - 3350
SELL ZONE:
3408 - 3410
SL: 3414
TP: 3404 - 3400 - 3396 - 3392 - 3386 - 3380
BUY ZONE:
3292 - 3290
SL: 3286
TP: 3296 - 3300 - 3304 - 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320
Important Notes:
Risk Management: Due to high volatility, make sure to use appropriate stop losses (SL) and take profits (TP).
Watch for Key Levels: Pay close attention to the 3300-3320 zone for signs of a potential bounce or further breakdown.
Adapt to Market Movement: Given the uncertainty, stay flexible and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Conclusion:
Gold’s market is in a highly volatile phase. Key support and resistance levels will determine the next move. Keep a close eye on market reactions and act accordingly.
GOLD PEAKS, BEARS PEEK IN - CORRECTION KICKS INSymbol - XAUUSD
Gold, having recently reached the psychologically significant level of 3500, has entered a corrective phase. This movement was partially driven by a slight de-escalation in the trade tensions between the United States and China.
Following a decline that did not reach the key support zone at 3288, gold prices began to rebound in early European trading hours, as market participants await the release of US PMI data. The precious metal had previously recorded an all-time high of 3500 but subsequently retreated, influenced by optimism surrounding potential easing in the US - China trade dispute.
The US dollar has also shown signs of recovery amid this correction. However, investor confidence remains cautious due to concerns over the unpredictability of President Trump. During this period of uncertainty, gold continues to consolidate in a corrective pattern.
Attention is now focused on the upcoming S&P Global PMI release, which may shape expectations for future adjustments in the US FED’s interest rate policy and influence the broader market direction.
Key Resistance Levels: 3340, 3360, 3366
Key Support Levels: 3317, 3288
From a technical perspective, gold remains within a corrective structure, maintaining a bearish outlook. Nonetheless, any unexpected statements from Trump could trigger renewed speculative buying. At this stage, a potential pullback from the 3340-3366 resistance range is plausible. Long positions may be considered either on a confirmed retest of support levels or upon a decisive breakout and close above 3370