XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week
Hello Traders,
Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD.
Technical Perspective
On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel.
Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates.
This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend.
The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend.
Fundamental Context
The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold.
Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down.
Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset.
Trading Scenario
1. Buy (main priority):
Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline).
TP: 3960 – 4000.
SL: manage below the trendline.
2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks):
Condition: 3853 is breached.
At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated.
Conclusion
Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week.
Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853.
The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
Xauusdanalysis
Daily Plan: Gold Targets 7th Straight Weekly Gain |MMFLOWTRADING📊 Market Context
Gold holds firm above $3,850, aiming for its 7th consecutive weekly gain.
🔥 Main driver: Risks from a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
📉 54% probability of the shutdown lasting 29 days (Polymarket) → directly impacting gold sentiment.
🛡 Safe-haven demand & BUY-side FOMO keep fueling momentum.
⚖️ Still, profit-taking at higher resistance zones could trigger sharp swings before the next directional move.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
📈 Main trend: Bullish, but consolidating near 3,850.
🚧 Key Resistances: 3882–3884 & 3934–3936 (Liquidity Sell Zones).
🏦 Key Supports: 3797–3795 & 3756–3754 (Buy Zones).
🎯 Key Levels: 3850 – 3880 – 3900.
📈 Trading Scenarios & Plan
✅ SELL ZONE 1: 3882–3884
SL: 3890
TP: 3878 – 3874 – 3870 – 3865 – 3860 – 3850 – 3840 – ???
✅ SELL ZONE 2: 3934–3936
SL: 3940
TP: 3930 – 3925 – 3920 – 3910 – 3900 – ???
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3797–3795
SL: 3790
TP: 3800 – 3810 – 3820 – 3830 – 3840 – ???
✅ BUY ZONE 2: 3756–3754
SL: 3750
TP: 3760 – 3770 – 3780 – 3790 – 3800 – ???
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
🌀 U.S. shutdown headlines may spark unexpected volatility.
🕵️♂️ Focus on BUY setups at support, avoid chasing FOMO at highs.
❌ Consider SELL only if clear rejection signals form at resistance zones.
✅ Summary
Gold remains supported by safe-haven flows, eyeing a 7-week winning streak.
🎯 Strategy:
BUY setups: 3797–3795 & 3756–3754.
SELL setups: 3882–3884 & 3934–3936.
📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates & BIGWIN setups!
XAUUSD – New York Session Outlook (End of Week Setup)
Gold is currently testing the highs for the third time, but a fresh ATH this week seems increasingly unlikely. The ideal sell zone has already been tapped, leaving limited upside momentum in the short term.
Following today’s economic data, trading volume has remained muted, suggesting the market is waiting for clearer waves before committing further positions. Yesterday’s sharp drop already flushed out many short-term traders, which may keep activity lighter into the weekly close.
⚖️ Trading Plan – New York Session
For today’s US session, preference is given to short positions ahead of the weekly candle close:
Sell Entry: Around current levels (3,88x) or ideally at 3,890
Stop Loss: Strictly above the ATH
Take Profit: Targeting a deeper correction towards the 3,83x area into weekly close
📊 Market View
Momentum has clearly slowed, with repeated rejections around the highs.
Short-term volume remains thin, so expect choppy price action before any decisive move.
Patience will be key – look for small price reactions to refine entries.
📌 Conclusion: End-of-week price action looks tilted towards a corrective pullback rather than a breakout. For the New York session, selling rallies remains the higher-probability play.
Good luck with your trades, and trade safe! 🚀
XAUUSD H4 – WAITING FOR NFP, TRADING WITHIN PRICE CHANNEL
Hello trader 👋
Gold continues to hold within the H4 rising price channel, but buying momentum has clearly weakened after yesterday's sharp drop. The price reaction at the lower trendline indicates that selling pressure is not yet strong enough to break the structure, yet the market's hesitation reflects a wait-and-see attitude for the NFP data and a series of important US news tonight.
In the European session, the price might move slowly and frustratingly – typical for a Friday – before potentially exploding in the US session. Therefore, the sensible strategy now is short-term trading within the channel, adapting to each small wave on the M5–M15 timeframe.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3,874 – 3,876 (Sell entry)
Near Support: 3,794 – 3,795 (Buy scalping zone)
Deep Support: 3,760 (Important Buy zone)
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Short-term Sell Scenario:
Entry: 3,874 – 3,876
SL: 3,885
TP: Expecting break of lower trendline → 3,79x – 3,76x
🟢 Buy Scalping Scenario:
Entry: 3,794
SL: 3,785
TP: 3,820 → 3,835 → 3,855 → 3,876 → 3,890
🟢 Deep Buy Zone Scenario:
Entry: 3,760
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,782 → 3,795 → 3,810 → 3,825
📊 General Outlook
Main Trend: Gold remains in an upward channel, but buying strength is waning and the risk of a breakdown is present.
European Session: Slow fluctuations, prone to “whipsaw” → prioritise short-term scalping.
US Session: NFP news might create strong waves, breaking the price channel → traders need to closely monitor reactions around 3,794 and 3,760 to decide on the next buy or sell move.
📌 Conclusion: Before NFP, gold remains in an upward channel but technical factors suggest a possible correction. Sensible strategy: Short sell at 3,874–3,876, or buy around support 3,794 – 3,760 depending on price action. Manage capital tightly, as the US session will determine the next major direction.
Follow my journey as I share trading experiences with you.
LiamTrading – Gold Plan: Wide Range + US Politics Exert PressureLiamTrading – Gold Plan: Wide Range + US Politics Exert Pressure
Gold continues to fluctuate within a wide range as market sentiment is heavily influenced by news from the United States. On 3rd October, the US Senate is expected to re-vote on the temporary budget bill. If it fails, the federal government could shut down, extending into the next week. This will undoubtedly have a significant impact on safe-haven flows, making gold more sensitive to key technical resistance zones.
📊 Technical Analysis – Chart H1
Gold is moving within a wide sideways structure, oscillating around strong resistance – support zones.
Fibonacci Resistance + Psychological level around 3878–3881 → suitable for short-term Sell scalping.
Confluence support (Retest + Volume) around 3828–3830 → ideal zone to watch for Buy, expecting a recovery wave.
The larger trend still leans towards an increase, however, in the short term, the market will experience several liquidity sweeps.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Sell (short-term – prioritise on M15):
Entry: 3878–3881
SL: 3886
TP: 3860 – 3855 – 3840 – 3822 – 3810
Buy (retest support + volume):
Entry: 3828–3830
SL: 3822
TP: 3845 – 3860 – 3877 – 3890
📌 Conclusion
Today's range is quite wide, suitable for scalping according to psychological resistance zones.
Short-term Sell at Fibonacci resistance points.
Buy when price retests confluence support with volume.
Political news from the US will be a catalyst causing significant gold volatility, so it's crucial to maintain disciplined capital management.
👉 Keep a close watch on the scenarios, I will update regularly as the market experiences new movements.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 10/03/2025📊
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🔹 Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining → the corrective process is likely to continue until D1 enters the oversold zone and reverses.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn upward → today we may see a bullish move.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is heading into the oversold zone → the current H1 decline is weakening, which may lead to a bullish move aligned with H4. This potential rally could last for about 4–5 H4 candles.
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🔹 Wave Structure
• D1: Price is still within the wave 5 target zone without a clear breakout. However, D1 momentum suggests that a corrective decline may continue.
• H4: An ABC structure has formed → the current rebound may be:
o The start of a new uptrend.
o Or part of a more complex correction.
• H1: Showing a rebound, which could be:
o Wave 1 of a new uptrend.
o Or wave A of a corrective 3-wave ABC move.
⏩ In either case, the current decline can be identified as wave 2 (purple) or wave B (blue).
• Downside targets:
o Zone 1: 3842
o Zone 2: 3830
Afterward, the market is expected to rise:
• If it is wave C → target equals wave A at 3885 (after 3842 support) or 3874 (after 3830 support).
• If it is wave 3 (purple) → minimum target = 1.618 of wave 1 (purple).
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🔹 Trading Plan
Scenario 1
• Buy Zone: 3843 – 3841
• SL: 3833
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
Scenario 2
• Buy Zone: 3831 – 3829
• SL: 3818
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
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👉 Main strategy: Look for buy entries around 3842 or 3830 support zones, targeting 3874 – 3885.
Gold Trading Plan | Limited Downside, Key Fibo Zones in Play🌍 Market Context
Gold is facing renewed selling pressure after yesterday’s bounce from the $3,820 area.
Risk-on sentiment and fresh USD buying are weighing on XAU/USD.
However, expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year and geopolitical tensions remain supportive, limiting deeper downside moves.
📊 Technical Analysis – Fibo Matrix Setup
🔴 SELL Reaction Zones
386x – 388x (Fibo retracement 0.5 – 0.618 + 0.786 confluence)
→ Intraday SELL scalp zone with strong rejection probability.
3881 – 3892 (Fibo 1.5 – 1.618 downtrend extension)
→ Key SELL liquidity zone for deeper rejection.
🟢 BUY Support Zones
3820 – 3819 (short-term recovery base) → Initial intraday support.
3795 – 3793 (Fibo 1.5 – 1.618 recovery zone) → Major liquidity pocket, ideal for BUY setups if tested.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ SELL Setup
Entry: 386x – 388x (watch rejection candlesticks).
Target: 3820 → 3795.
Stop Loss: Above 3892.
2️⃣ BUY Setup
Entry: 3795 – 3793 with bullish confirmation.
Target: 3860 → 3880.
Stop Loss: Below 3785.
⚡ Key Notes
USD momentum is crucial – if dollar strength continues, Gold may retest 379x zones.
Fed’s rate cut outlook and geopolitical headlines remain the “floor” for Gold.
Stick to clear Fibo reaction zones for best risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Insight:
Do you expect Gold to hold 3820 before bouncing, or will we see a flush into 379x liquidity?
Drop your setups below 👇
XAUUSD – Prioritise Sell After Breaking Trendline
Hello Traders,
Gold has experienced a strong upward movement for several consecutive days, but currently, the market is showing significant reversal signals. The upward trendline on H4 has been broken, confirming the weakening buying momentum. In the medium term, the preferred scenario will be selling rather than continuing to chase buys.
Basic Context
The US Treasury has just repurchased an additional 2 billion USD in bonds, raising the total repurchase this week to 4.9 billion USD. This move indicates an effort to stabilise the bond market but also reflects significant pressure on the USD and the US financial situation.
In the short term, the injection of additional bond liquidity makes gold's movement more unpredictable, and the trendline break at this time is an important warning signal.
Technical Perspective
Breaking the upward trendline → confirms a structural change.
MACD signals weakening, with buyers losing clear strength.
The 3865 – 3868 zone is a beautiful resistance retest point to Sell.
If the price falls deeply, the support zones around 3830 – 3810 – 3790 will be the next targets.
Today's Trading Scenario
Sell (main priority):
Entry: 3865 – 3868
SL: 3875
TP: 3855 – 3832 – 3810 – 3790
Buy Scalping (counter-trend – high risk):
Entry: 3803 – 3805
SL: 3795
TP: 3822 – 3835 – 3850
Conclusion
Gold has broken the trendline, prioritising Sell in the short and medium term.
News from the US bond market further emphasises the risk of instability, making counter-trend Buy moves suitable only for short-term Scalping.
Follow me for the earliest updates on scenarios as price paths change.
LiamTrading – INTRADAY TRADING SCENARIO
When we look at the global financial landscape, an interesting picture emerges:
Equities – All Time High (ATH)
Housing Prices – ATH
Bitcoin – ATH
Gold – ATH
Money Supply – ATH
National Debt – ATH
CPI Inflation – averaging 4% per year since 2020, double the Fed’s “target”
Federal Reserve – continuing rate cuts this month
Clearly, easy money combined with inflationary pressure is a powerful driver pushing gold to new historical levels. This makes buying with the trend more reasonable than ever.
📊 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
Gold is moving within a well-defined upward channel.
Volume Profile highlights the POC around 3840–3850, a key zone to watch for scalping buys.
The VAL coincides with the rising trendline near 3820–3822, offering strong confluence for medium-term buys.
If price breaks above 3895 to confirm a new ATH, trend-following buys remain the priority.
Key resistance: 3913–3915, suitable for short-term scalping sells.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping: 3845 | SL 3839 | TP 3856 – 3870
Buy zone (main): 3820 – 3822 | SL 3816 | TP 3832 – 3845 – 3860 – 3875 – 3890
Sell scalping: 3915 – 3913 | SL 3920 | TP 3900 – 3885 – 3872 – 3860
Buy breakout: If price breaks ATH 3895 and confirms, continue buying with the trend → Open targets towards 3915+
📌 Conclusion
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, both fundamentally and technically. Short-term pullbacks are simply opportunities to add to buy positions. However, traders should watch the immediate resistance zones to optimise entries.
👉 This is my personal outlook on XAUUSD, not financial advice.
Follow me to stay updated with the latest daily gold scenarios 🔥
XAUUSD – WOLFE WAVE CONTINUES, PRIORITISE BUYING
Hello trader 👋
On 02/10, we begin with the continuation scenario of the Wolfe Wave pattern. In yesterday's session, gold prices followed the upward rhythm of the pattern, but the decline at the upper line was not truly effective. Today, the market is forming a new price channel with a wider range, opening opportunities for both buy and sell orders during the session.
Regarding fundamentals, geopolitical tensions between Russia and France are escalating, while safe-haven flows continue to pour into gold. Long-term analyses suggest the $4,000 mark is entirely feasible, although there are still technical fluctuations in the near term.
⚖️ Today's trading scenarios
🟢 Buy Scenario (prioritise following the main trend):
Entry: 3,863 – 3,865
SL: 3,857
TP: 3,880 → 3,895 → 3,910 → 3,920
👉 You can enter at the current zone, or wait for a breakout confirmation above 3,871 to increase winning probability.
🔴 Sell Scalping Scenario (short-term):
Entry: 3,885
SL: 3,891
TP: Short around 3,870 (depending on price reaction)
👉 Suitable for quick scalping traders at the upper edge of the channel.
🔴 Wolfe Wave Sell Scenario (wide range):
Entry: 3,925 – 3,927
SL: 3,935
TP: Long-term expectation according to the Wolfe pattern, can be managed by closing 50% at 3R profit level, letting the rest ride the trend.
📊 General Outlook
The main trend remains bullish, buying continues to be the priority strategy.
Sell orders should only be considered as short-term opportunities at the upper range, or when the price tests strong resistance.
Volatility may increase during the day due to political news, so risk management needs to be tight.
📌 Conclusion: Gold is following the Wolfe Wave pattern with an expanding price channel. Buying at support – short selling at resistance is the suitable strategy for the day. Long-term investors can continue to expect the $3,950 – $4,000 mark in the upcoming cycle.
(XAU/USD) – Gold likely to touch $4,000/oz: Ideal buying levels?1. Market Structure & Trend Outlook
On the H1 chart, gold is sustaining its bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows.
After the BoS (Break of Structure), price retraced near 3,862 Buy Zone and bounced upward.
At present, price trades above EMA34 and EMA89, keeping bullish bias intact.
2. Important Levels
Buy Zone: 3,862 – 3,865. Acts as short-term support. Holding above strengthens the bullish case.
OB1: 3,806 – 3,810. Next support in case Buy Zone breaks.
OB2: 3,763 – 3,770. Deeper support, triggered only if market corrects heavily.
Sell Scalping Zone (Fibo): 3,912. A short-term resistance, profit booking expected.
Sell Zone / ATH: 3,933 – 3,935. Breakout here may lead to fresh record highs.
3. Trade Setups
Bullish Setup: Buy on retest of 3,862 – 3,865.
SL: Below 3,850.
TP1: 3,912.
TP2: 3,933 – 3,935.
Bearish Setup (Defensive): If below 3,860, expect test of 3,806 – 3,810.
If this fails, price may decline towards 3,763 – 3,770.
4. Conclusion
Trend remains positive on H1. Best strategy: Buy on dips near support, manage SLs carefully, and book partial profits near resistances. Sustaining above 3,933 may open doors for new highs.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 2/10/2025🔎
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Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to reverse → this signals that the bullish trend is becoming very weak.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning upward → today we may see a recovery move, with price either rising further or moving sideways to push H4 momentum into the overbought zone.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the overbought zone → the recovery continues for now, but once H1 reverses inside the overbought zone, the next downward move may begin.
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Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe
o Price reached the second target yesterday.
o Momentum on D1 is showing signs of reversal → if today closes with a bearish candle, it may confirm that the yellow wave 5 top has been completed.
o In that case, a 3-wave correction on D1 will unfold.
o The duration of this correction will likely be longer than the previous yellow wave 2 and wave 4 corrections.
• H4 timeframe
o A downward move has completed, and momentum is turning upward.
o If H4 enters the overbought zone without creating a new high, it provides strong evidence that the purple wave 5 has been completed.
o The current structure shows the confluence of multiple wave 5s, fulfilling the condition of an ending diagonal triangle:
Features: new highs and new lows are created, but they become progressively smaller, forming a rising triangle.
Once completed → a sharp decline is expected.
• H1 timeframe
The structure is noisy, so we consider 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1 – Black wave 5 has already completed
o Price is currently in a corrective structure.
o Combined with H4 momentum reaching the overbought zone and reversing:
If price fails to break above 3897, then:
1. Price drops from the current level 3866 → toward 3830. Then retraces back to 3865 → this offers a very good shorting opportunity.
2. Price rallies to 3885 → but only if H4 momentum is in the overbought zone and starts to weaken → this also provides a great short setup.
Scenario 2 – Price breaks the high
o In this case, we consider the possibility of an ending diagonal triangle, combining channel structure and H4 momentum to find the short entry.
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Trading Plan
• Although we already have potential targets, placing limit orders at this stage is not effective.
• The key condition to wait for: H4 momentum must reach the overbought zone and reverse → that will provide a clearer and safer entry.
• I will update the entry point once H4 momentum reaches the overbought zone, to avoid the same situation as yesterday: correct wave direction, but wide volatility caused stop-loss hits.
Gold Record: Shutdown 'Blinds' the Fed Hello, traders!
Gold shows absolutely no sign of slowing down, closing the October 1st session at $3,866.66/oz, while futures contracts hit a record high of $3,897.50/oz. The precious metal has climbed nearly 50% year-to-date and just set its 39th record high this year!
Fundamental Analysis: Shutdown Risk Hits at the Worst Time
While government shutdowns usually have a minor impact, the timing of this one is critical:
Delayed Jobs Data: The crucial jobs report (scheduled for Oct 3rd) will be postponed. This uncertainty will leave the market and the Fed 'blind' regarding the economy's health just weeks before the next policy meeting, triggering strong demand for safe-haven assets (Gold).
Threat of Staff Cuts: President Trump threatened to use the shutdown to cut "a lot of" federal employees, escalating tensions beyond typical closures and increasing political instability.
Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
Gold accelerated past the $387x region during the US session, confirming the upward momentum is still very strong. However, the market is prone to more "Stop Loss hunting" (liquidity sweeps). Continue to Prioritize Buy, but manage SL carefully due to wider price swings.
Resistance: $3887, $3895, $3904
Support: $3870, $3854, $3843
Suggested Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY ZONE
Zone: $3870 - $3868 / SL: $3860
TP: $3878 - $3888 - $3898 - $3908
SELL ZONE (High Risk)
Zone: $3903 - $3905 / SL: $3913
TP: $3895 - $3885 - $3875
Gold is running on a foundation of fear. Do you think the $3900 mark will be breached this session? 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #GovernmentShutdown #TradingView #FinancialMarkets #RecordHigh
Gold 1H – Will Liquidity Above 3903 Fuel Reversal?Gold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating near 3,872 after multiple ChoCHs, with the next liquidity cluster resting above 3903–3901. Market structure shows engineered liquidity sweeps possible at premium supply, aligning with short-term sell opportunities. On the downside, a defined FVG buy zone and discount demand around 3832–3834 provide scope for continuation if tapped.
From the macro side, traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data, while a resilient dollar and persistent geopolitical risks in energy markets continue to shape volatility. This backdrop supports tactical plays: fading rallies into premium supply while preparing to join the move from discount demand zones.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3903–3901 (SL 3910): Premium liquidity sweep zone. Downside targets at 3880 → 3860 → 3845.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE SUPPORT 3832–3834 (SL 3825): Discount demand aligned with FVG mitigation. Upside targets at 3855 → 3875 → 3890+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Sweep at 3903–3901
• Entry: 3903–3901
• Stop Loss: 3910
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3880
• TP2: 3860
• TP3: 3845
🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Mitigation at 3832–3834
• Entry: 3832–3834
• Stop Loss: 3825
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3855
• TP2: 3875
• TP3: 3890+
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🔑 Strategy Note
Gold remains range-bound but liquidity-driven. Expect engineered sweeps above 3903 before deeper corrections, while discounted dips into 3832–3834 offer potential continuation setups. Flexibility is key: fade rallies at premium, but scale into buys if liquidity clears into discount demand.
XAUUSUS | Government Shutdown Confirmed | Gold awaits ADP & ISM🔎 Context & News
US Politics : The US government officially shut down after the Senate failed to pass the federal funding bill. A major political risk catalyst, triggering safe-haven flows into Gold.
FED : Probability of a -25bps rate cut in October rises to 96.2% → almost certain.
Key Events Today (ET / UTC) :
• ADP Employment Change: 08:15 ET / 12:15 UTC
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC
→ Both will be crucial data points that may shake Dollar and Gold.
📌 Summary : US politics + FED easing = Gold remains supported, but ADP & ISM tonight could spark strong volatility in the US session.
📈 Technical Analysis (H1)
Main Trend : Bullish after multiple BoS.
EMA : EMA 34 > EMA 89 → bullish momentum intact.
Resistance :
3,897 – 3,907 (Sell scalp – Fibo 0.5–0.618).
3,920 – 3,921 (Liquidity / ATH test).
Support :
3,872 – 3,876 (old high retest).
3,833 – 3,841 (OB zone).
3,814 – 3,822 (deep Support Zone – losing this shifts bias).
🎯 Trade Plan
✅ Buy (trend priority)
Buy Zone 1 : 3,872 – 3,876
• SL: 3,869
• TP: 3,897 → 3,907 → 3,920
Buy Zone 2 (OB) : 3,833 – 3,841
• SL: 3,826
• TP: 3,872 → 3,897 → 3,907
Buy Zone 3 (Deep Support) : 3,814 – 3,822
• SL: 3,808
• TP: 3,841 → 3,872 → 3,897
⚡ Sell (short scalps only – lower RR)
Sell Zone 1 : 3,897 – 3,907
• SL: 3,912
• TP: 3,885 → 3,876 → 3,841
Sell Zone 2 (ATH sweep) : 3,920 – 3,921
• SL: 3,925
• TP: 3,907 → 3,885 → 3,876
📝 Conclusion
Gold remains strongly supported by the US government shutdown + FED rate cut expectations.
Strategy today: Prioritize Buy at support; Sell only for short scalps around 3,907 – 3,921.
⚠️ Watch out: ADP & ISM tonight may trigger unexpected volatility → manage risk carefully and move SL to BE after TP1.
📢 If you find this Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow Captain Vincent ⚓ for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think, crew? Will Gold break ATH 3,920 right after ADP & ISM tonight?
XAUUSD – Maintaining the Core Uptrend (BUY Bias)
Hello traders,
On the H4 timeframe, gold continues to show a steady upward trend. After testing the upper trendline, price bounced back and is now consolidating around the 386x region. This suggests the market may be in an accumulation phase, awaiting major news.
Fundamental Context
Tomorrow, the market will look towards the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an event that often brings strong volatility to gold prices.
In addition, concerns around the potential US Government shutdown are adding to the macro uncertainty, further supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
At present, there is little evidence to suggest gold will decline, particularly when other markets are also breaking higher.
Technical Analysis
Price continues to trade within the ascending channel on H4, with buyers holding the advantage.
MACD remains above the zero line, showing no clear signs of weakness.
Price is likely to consolidate further in the 3860 – 3870 range before a sharp move triggered by news.
Trading Plan
Buy Setup (preferred – trend following)
Entry: 3829 – 3832
SL: 3825
TP: 3845 – 3862 – 3877 – 3890
Sell Scalping (counter-trend, higher risk)
Entry: 3927 – 3930
SL: 3934
TP: 3915 – 3900 – 3882 – 3865
Note: Sell setups should be treated only as short-term scalps, as the primary bias remains on the buy side.
Conclusion
Gold is holding firmly within the uptrend structure, with no significant weakness yet. Given the backdrop of political uncertainty and the upcoming NFP release, the priority remains buying at suitable support zones. Any sell trades should be viewed as quick reactions rather than core positions.
👉 Follow me to get the latest updates as soon as price structure changes.
ATH $3871: Shutdown Fear & 97% Fed Cut Fuel Gold Surge
Hello, investors and traders!
Gold continues to show phenomenal strength, setting a new ATH at $3,871.45/oz (on Sept 30), and closing at $3,843.43/oz. This gain confirms the strongest September since 2011, solidly confirming the explosive growth trend for the yellow metal.
Fundamental Analysis: Politics and the Fed Drive Buying Wave
Two core drivers are pushing gold prices higher, making any attempt to short (call the top) extremely risky:
Political Instability: The risk of a looming US Government shutdown is ratcheting up uncertainty and strongly boosting safe-haven demand.
Low-Rate Expectations: Weakening US jobs data has nearly locked in the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in October. The market is currently pricing in a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut.
Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
After a recent shock drop of 70 points, Gold quickly absorbed the selling pressure and created a new ATH, proving that buying pressure is overwhelming. The strong upward bias is undeniable.
Outlook: Continue to Prioritize Buy given the powerful trend and supportive fundamentals. Only attempt Sell strategies near psychological resistance levels with an extremely tight Stop Loss (SL).
Key Resistance: $3894, $3904, $3914, $3924
Key Support: $3869, $3843, $3834
Suggested Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY SCALP
Zone: $3870 - $3868 / SL: $3864
TP: $3875 - $3885 - $3900
BUY ZONE
Zone: $3834 - $3832 / SL: $3824
TP: $3842 - $3862 - $3892
SELL SCALP (High Risk)
Zone: $3904 - $3906 / SL: $3910
TP: $3901 - $3891 - $3876
SELL ZONE (High Risk)
Zone: $3925 - $3927 / SL: $3935
TP: $3917 - $3907 - $3897 - $3887 - $3877 - $3867
The market is running on fear and rate-cut anticipation. Are you betting on the $3900 mark this week? 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #GovernmentShutdown #TradingView #InterestRates #FinancialMarkets
XAUUSD – Gold Smashes to New ATH: Bulls in Full Control📊 Market Overview
Gold has surged into uncharted territory, breaking through to a fresh All-Time High (ATH). The earlier dip toward 3,800 USD acted as nothing more than a springboard, allowing buyers to reload before launching this powerful breakout.
Safe-haven demand continues to fuel the rally, as concerns over a potential US government shutdown and expectations of more Fed rate cuts strengthen bullish momentum.
📍 Crucial Levels to Watch
🔴 SELL Reaction Zone
3,911 – 3,915 (Liquidity Resistance) → Potential short-term ceiling, profit-taking may appear here.
🟢 BUY Reaction Zones
3,830 – 3,820 (Fibo Support) → First pullback level for intraday buyers.
3,808 – 3,810 → Secondary support zone for a deeper correction.
3,747 – 3,752 (Liquidity BUY Zone) → Stronger base for swing buyers.
🎯 Trading Setups
1️⃣ Buy the Dip (Primary Play)
Entry: 3,830 – 3,820, confirmation needed.
Targets: 3,900 → 3,915, extend toward 3,950+ if momentum remains strong.
Stop: Below 3,808.
2️⃣ Sell the Spike (Countertrend)
Entry: 3,911 – 3,915, only on visible rejection.
Targets: 3,871 → 3,830.
Stop: Above 3,922.
3️⃣ Swing Buy Opportunity
Entry: 3,752 – 3,747 (Fibo confluence).
Targets: 3,830 → 3,900.
Stop: Below 3,735.
⚡ Pro Tips
Trend bias = Strongly Bullish, prioritize long setups.
Countertrend shorts are tactical; keep stops tight.
Headlines from the US political scene and Fed could trigger extra volatility at highs.
💬 Discussion
Will gold extend to 3,950 – 4,000 USD, or is a sharp pullback around the corner? Drop your views and charts below 👇
GOLD H1 – THE WOLF WAVE SCENARIO IS FORMINGHello trader 👋
Gold has surged back strongly after a nearly 70-point drop yesterday. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the newly established ATH, with the potential to extend short-term targets towards 3,960 – 4,000 if the upward trend continues to hold.
On the H1 chart, the price structure indicates the possibility of forming a Wolfe Wave pattern. This will be the main reference frame for trading throughout the day, capitalising on the oscillation range within the pattern.
⚖️ Short-term Trading Strategy
🟢 Buy Scenario (priority in line with the main trend):
Entry: 3,852 – 3,854
SL: 3,847
TP: 3,865 → 3,878 → 3,890
👉 Trend-following trade, suitable for holding positions and maximising profits.
🔴 Sell Scenario (scalping at the upper boundary):
Entry: 3,877 – 3,879
SL: 3,884
TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,838
👉 Short-term sell order, only for wave-trading within the pattern boundary.
📊 General Outlook
Gold continues to be supported by the major upward trend, but the H1 range suggests there might be some tug-of-war within the Wolfe Wave.
Buying positions remain a priority for the day, as they align with the trend and allow for more effective order management.
Traders need to closely monitor price action at the upper and lower boundaries to make flexible decisions.
💡 News Factors to Note
In the next hour, the market will focus on political news from the US, especially the potential US Government shutdown. This could be a catalyst causing more significant gold volatility during the session.
📌 Conclusion: Day trading prioritises Buying at support zones – Selling scalps at the upper boundary within the H1 Wolfe Wave pattern. Tight capital management and clear SL to mitigate risks. I will continue to update new scenarios for you – stay tuned to not miss out 🚀.
US Government Shutdown, Gold Benefits & FOMO BUY Continues📊 Market Context The gold market kicks off Q4/2025 with great enthusiasm as safe-haven flows continue to surge.
Not only that, the potential delay of the NFP employment report this week further fuels the market's "thirst" for directional information, positioning gold as the central asset in everyone's sights. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure from political uncertainties and expectations that the Fed is moving closer to further rate cuts.
Combined, the current picture shows that gold is not only maintaining its strength after a breakout rally but also has the opportunity to expand and conquer new high price territories, as safe-haven capital and FOMO momentum from the BUY side continue to amplify.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
The price maintains the main upward trend, staying above the support structure.
Important BUY ZONE: 3833–3831 (Fibo + CP zone) – this area is likely to react strongly.
Secondary BUY ZONE: 3817–3815 (OBS zone) – stronger support, suitable for accumulating additional BUY orders.
Resistance area 3919–3923 (Liquidity Sell Zone) may be where liquidity traps appear.
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3833–3831
SL: 3827
TP: 3838 - 3842 - 3846 - 3850 - 3855 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ BUY ZONE 2: 3817–3815
SL: 3810
TP: 3822 - 3826 - 3830 - 3835 - 3840 - 3850 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ Summary Gold is directly benefiting from political instability and the delay in US economic data. The main trend remains BUY with safe-haven flows, with strategic zones at 3833–3831 and 3817–3815. The expansion target aims for 3870–3880 and beyond to 3920+ if buying momentum remains strong.
Gold 1H – Correction or Continuation After Supply Test?Gold on the 1H timeframe is trading near 3,861 after consolidating below a premium supply zone at 3876–3874. Structure shows a recent BOS to the upside, but current rejection signals potential engineered liquidity sweeps into the nearby FVG and discount demand zones. The first support rests at 3796–3798, aligning with discount territory and previous accumulation, offering scope for continuation if price reacts positively.
From the macro side, today’s headlines point to persistent U.S. dollar strength as traders await fresh Federal Reserve guidance on inflation and rate path. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical concerns in energy markets are maintaining safe-haven flows, adding volatility to gold’s intraday swings.
This dual backdrop sets up a tactical approach: fading rejections at supply while being prepared to enter on discounted dips at demand.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3876–3874 (SL 3883): Premium supply zone, downside targets at 3850 → 3835 → 3815.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE SUPPORT 3796–3798 (SL 3790): Discount demand zone aligned with BOS, upside targets at 3820 → 3845 → 3860+.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Supply Rejection (3876–3874)
• Entry: 3876–3874
• Stop Loss: 3883
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3850
TP2: 3835
TP3: 3815
🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Mitigation (3796–3798)
• Entry: 3796–3798
• Stop Loss: 3790
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3820
TP2: 3845
TP3: 3860+
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Gold remains in a corrective phase after testing supply. Expect liquidity sweeps into discount levels before continuation. With the dollar strengthening and Fed commentary in focus, intraday traders should:
• Fade supply rejections at 3876–3874.
• Scale into buys around 3796–3798 if liquidity is cleared.
XAUUSD Daily Plan – Gold’s Pullback Before the Next Leg Higher📊 Market Overview
Gold has pulled back from its fresh record highs but the move looks more like healthy accumulation than a reversal. The 3,800 zone has acted as a strong support, absorbing selling pressure and keeping the broader bullish trend intact. Immediate rebounds confirm that buyers are still in control, preparing for the next breakout.
📍 Key Levels to Watch
🔴 SELL Reaction Zone
3,871 – 3,872 → First resistance level, possible short-term rejection.
3,915 – 3,920 (Fibo Liquidity Zone) → Stronger sell wall where profit-taking may appear.
🟢 BUY Zones
3,808 – 3,810 (Fibo 0.786 Support) → Important reaction zone for intraday buy setups.
3,747 – 3,752 (Fibo Liquidity Buy Zone) → Deep correction level, strong long-term demand area.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
Entry: Buy near 3,808 – 3,810 on bullish candlestick confirmation.
Targets: 3,871 → 3,900+
Stop: Below 3,795
2️⃣ Deep Pullback Opportunity
Entry: 3,747 – 3,752 if price flushes lower.
Targets: 3,808 → 3,871
Stop: Below 3,735
3️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
Entry: 3,915 – 3,920 only with strong rejection.
Targets: 3,871 → 3,808
Stop: Above 3,928
⚡ Trading Notes
Gold remains in a strong bullish channel – selling should only be tactical and short-term.
Watch US political headlines and end-of-month flows, as they could trigger volatility.
Stick to defined Fibo zones for best risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Discussion
Do you think Gold will test 3,900+ this week or will we see a deeper correction first? Share your charts and ideas below 👇
GOLD ATH: US Shutdown Drama! Buy The Dip, Yaar? Gold just smashed a new record at $3,833.37/oz (Sept 29) on high safe-haven demand due to the impending US Govt shutdown (Oct 1) and solid FED rate cut hopes. USD pullback (0.2%) also playing its part.
The sudden dip to $3,794 looks like pure end-of-month profit-booking, not a proper reversal. If US tensions worsen, the Buy opportunity is still very much active!
📈 Technical View & Intraday Trade Setup
Gold has done a major flush, stopping out the weak hands. Selling pressure is there, but the drop without big news suggests caution. Look for a technical bounce to fill the FVG before a potential continuation lower.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3827 / $3846 / $3870
Support: $3787 / $3778 / $3763
Detailed Trading Strategy (US Session):
1. BUY Zone (Aggressive Dip Buy):
Entry: $3784 - $3782
SL: $3774
TP: $3792 / $3812 / $3832
2. SELL Scalp (Quick Short):
Entry: $3827 - $3829
SL: $3833
TP: $3824 / $3814 / $3804
3. SELL Zone (Main Short Entry):
Entry: $3866 - $3868
SL: $3876
TP: $3858 / $3838 / $3818
⚠️ Alert! The US Government Shutdown news is the main event. If budget talks are positive, Gold might see a sharp fall. Manage risk (SL) like a boss!
Kya lagta hai? Will Gold fly to $4K or take support near $378x? 👇
#XAUUSD #Gold #MCX #TradingStrategy #USShutdown #FED #TechnicalAnalysis #Intraday #MarketUpdate #Commodities






















