Gold for the week 16th sep to 20th sep 2024.Gold is technically long above 2530.
Wait for a fall till 2560 and if it retraces and forms a green candle in 4hr time frame then buy above the high of the Candle
Sell below the low of the day candle close below 2530
Movement is based on FED's interest rate decision. My view is that FED may cut 0.50 basis point since the American economy is on the edge of falling into a recession.
Disclaimer.
The above views are my own and for educational purpose. You may do you own analysis before taking a position.
Xauusdanalysis
XAUUSD 12/9/2024 will the gold price continue to decrease
Looking at H1, we see a complete Elliot structure has been completed including 5 main waves and 3 abc correction waves, I used purple to symbolize on the chart
- Following a complete structure is a new trend that coincides with the main trend with a 5-wave structure
- Currently, we predict that wave 1 in the new trend has been completed and wave 2 is being completed
- The target area of wave 2 I measured at the area of 2508 - 2505, we will use this price area as the target to BUY up according to wave 3
- At that time, we measure the target of wave 3 at least at the area of 2538 - 2541 and this price area will be our Sell target to catch the wave 4 correction down
- I still reserve a case that the current price wave 2 continues to adjust according to the abc structure that has not ended, then we will have a target BUY at 2494 - 2491
Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 2508 - 2505
SL: 2498
TP1: 2516
TP2: 2525
TP3: 2532
BUY ZONE: 2494 - 2491
SL: 2484
TP1: 2500
TP2: 2508
TP3: 2520
SELL ZONE: 2538 - 2541
SL: 2548
TP1: 2531
TP2: 2525
TP3: 2517
Gold analysis September 11Fundamental Analysis The steady rise continued throughout the early part of the European session and took the commodity to a fresh weekly high, with buyers now looking to build on the upside momentum beyond the $2,525-2,526 supply zone. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on the gains recorded over the past three days and withdrawn from the monthly top amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a weaker risk-on sentiment in general has prompted some safe-haven flows and lifted Gold closer to its all-time high in the last hour. However, bulls may refrain from positioning for any further upside moves and prefer to pause ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. The key US CPI report will play a key role in investigating market expectations on the size of the Fed's September rate cut and determine the next leg of the directional move for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis Gold's push to 2529 in European trading promises a breakout of all-time highs early today. The current key zone around 2529 in European trading could push prices back to 2540. The top is a push to the psychological port zone which is also the Fibonacci level of 2555. Contrary, if 2029 fails to break, prices could soon push to the 2517 zone before the CPI data and also the US session. and revisit the 2495 support zone and 2555 resistance when the news is released. because if the news pushes up, there will be no good entry to sell until the 2540 and 2555 areas.
Resistance above: 2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555…
Support: 2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485
SELL 2537 - 2529 Stoploss 2442
SELL 2554 - 2556 Stoploss 2559
BUY 2508 - 2506 Stoploss 2503
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 2491
XAUUSD 1H SELL PROJECTION 10.09.24Reason for Bearish
Gold prices have continued to hit fresh highs in 2024 due to a wide range of factors — from escalating geopolitical risks and the interest rate outlook to budget deficit concerns, inflation hedging and central bank buying.
Gold’s blistering rally this year was partly fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates as many as three times in 2024, as stubborn inflation started to ease. But current projections suggest only one rate cut is penciled in for the remainder of 2024.
Traditionally, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. interest rates increase the appeal of non-yielding bullion. But a significant decoupling started to emerge in early 2022 and gold’s relationship with U.S. real yields has broken down even further this year.
“Gold’s resurgence has come earlier than expected, as it further decouples from real yields. We have been structurally bullish gold since the fourth quarter of 2022 and with gold prices surging past $2,400 in April, the rally has come earlier and has been much sharper than expected. It has been especially surprising given that it has coincided with Fed rate cuts being priced out and U.S. real yields moving higher due to stronger labor and inflation data in the U.S,” said Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
XAUUSD 15M ASCENDING TRIANGLE BUY PROJECTION 09.09.24Reason for Bullish
Key Takeaways
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically break out of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle, although this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
A long trade is taken if the price breaks above the top of the pattern.
A short trade is taken if the price breaks below the lower trendline.
A stop loss is typically placed just outside the pattern on the opposite side from the breakout.
A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point.
XAUUSD DowntrendIntro Gold
Gold price hangs near daily low amid modest USD strength, cautious market mood lends support.
Gold price drifts lower for the second straight day amid reduced bets for a larger rate cut by the Fed.
An uptick in the US bond yields underpins the USD and further contributes to the intraday downfall.
Worries about an economic downturn in the US and geopolitical tensions should limit further losses.
Price Tag
Sell Gold Near $2505-$2509 SL 2513
TP $2496 >>>>>>>>>$2490>>>>>>$2480
Latest gold analysis☘️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices witnessed an intraday reversal from an all-time high and fell below the psychological $2,500 level after the release of key US monthly employment data on Friday. The mixed US employment report reduced the chances of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, which prompted some cover in the US dollar (USD) prices and weighed on the precious metal.
That said, concerns about a US recession dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets and acted as a driver for safe-haven Gold prices. Additionally, the lack of progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas became another factor supporting XAU/USD during the Asian session on Monday. This warrants caution for bearish traders amid the prospect of an impending Fed rate cut cycle.
☘️Technical Analysis
Gold is below the 2500 round port level, in fact this port area is no longer strong enough to push gold prices lower. The area of interest in today's European session is around the 2507 Fibonacci 0.5 retracement zone and the 2512 Fibonacci final extension zone. These are two areas of interest for a SELL plan. When 2512 is broken, the downtrend on Friday is reversed. The main candle h4 is broken and ATH comes early this week, the expected level is 255x. The 2331 area is no longer valuable when gold pushes up. The opposite direction is the 2470-2460 2433 area playing an important support role.
🌸Trading signal
SELL zone 2505 - 2507 Stoploss 2511
BUY zone 2484 - 2482 Stoploss 2479
BUY zone 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
XAUUSD/GOLD 30M BUY PROJECTION 09.09.24nternally, factors such as domestic demand, currency exchange rates, and government policies play a significant role in shaping gold's trajectory. For instance, a surge in demand for gold during cultural festivities or a weakening domestic currency can propel prices upwards
Golden Indicator level Xauusd New All Time Hig 2519.50 to 2540++Buy Condition above only 2519.50
Current price running 2513.70
Buy above...... 2519.50
Stoploss........ 2512......7 pts
Tp-1..............2523.50......4 pts
Tp-2...............2528.50......9 pts
Tp-3................2535.........14 pts
Tp-4................2540.........20 pts
This level based on Golden Indicator and education purpose only
Gold Price Analysis September 6Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices attracted some buyers for the third straight day on Friday and traded near weekly highs heading into the European session. However, the gains lacked bullish sentiment as investors opted to wait for the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing any fresh bets. Meanwhile, rising bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September weighed on the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day and provided some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a mixed batch of US employment data released this week suggested the labour market is losing momentum and raised concerns about the health of the economy. This, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampened investor appetite for riskier assets and turned out to be another factor that acted as a driver of safe-haven Gold prices. However, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the two-day uptrend ahead of key US macro data risks.
Technical Analysis
Gold is looking to make an ATH in today’s US session. The re-approach to the 2523 zone in yesterday’s evening session and the liquid pullback to the 2508 zone and back to the top as the European session began have prompted investors to buy to push prices higher in the US session. The key price zone of 2526 on the breakout in today’s European session is definitely a new all-time high for Gold.
Gold will at least reach 2526 or 2533 before a sharp decline. Now the US session begins and gold pushes down first, the US's upward force will be greater and it is possible to reach the sell zone of 254x.
Resistance: 2526 - 2532 - 2542 - 2555
Support: 2493 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536
BUY price zone 2499 - 2497 stoploss 2492
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
XAUUSD/GOLD NFP NEWS FORCAST 06.09.24The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a monthly US labor market indicator that measures the number of jobs added or lost in the previous month. The NFP report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is usually available on the first Friday of each month.
The NFP report is a significant economic indicator that can have a big impact on the global financial markets. Here are some reasons why the NFP report is important:
Forex market
The NFP report is one of the most significant news announcements in the foreign exchange (forex) market, causing large movements in the market.
Interest rate policy
The Federal Reserve pays close attention to the NFP report when setting interest rate policy.
Economic expansion
Increasing NFP numbers may indicate economic expansion, but they may also be a sign of inflation.
Economic concerns
Decreasing NFP numbers may indicate broader economic concerns.
There are two ways to trade the NFP report:
Before the release
Use deductive reasoning to predict the market's direction before the NFP number is released.
XAUUSD 6/9/2024 Where will the uptrend end?
Looking at H1 we are seeing a 5-wave bullish structure forming,
- Currently looking at the price data, the wave 4 structure is forming, the completion of wave 4 and wave 5 are confirmed when the price breaks through 2523, then we have the confirmation of wave 5.
- After a 5-wave structure will be an adjustment according to the 3-wave ABC structure.
- I have estimated the wave 5 target at the price range of 2530 - 2533, which is also our SELL target
- Then the ABC correction structure has a target to end at the price range of 2500 - 2497, which will be our BUY target.
- I still do not rule out the possibility that the big correction wave has not been completed yet, then the target of wave C that I mentioned in the previous plan is the price zone of 2464 - 2467, which will be our BUY target when the price breaks through 2472
Our trading plan will trade according to the ABC downtrend and wait for the ABC downtrend structure to complete, then we will BUY up
Trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2530 -2533
SL: 2540
TP1: 2523
TP2: 2518
TP3: 2509
BUY ZONE: 2500 - 2497
SL: 2400
TP1: 2518
TP2: 2523
TP3: 2530
BUY ZONE: 2467 - 2464
SL: 2457
TP1: 2482
TP2: 2493
TP3: 2518
XAUUSD - Accumulation , Manipulation and Distribution
Today before "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: news
big players took the advantage of news and followed
ICT PO3 pattern which is
ACCUMULATION
MANIPULATION
DISTRIBUTION
ICT power of three is the strategy which exposes the smart money traps for retail traders.
ICT power of 3 concept is also known as AMD setup because of the three main concepts accumulation, manipulation and distribution.
Accumulation phase is when market ranges near important level and smart money accumulate their positions in this area.
Manipulation phase, as obvious from the name, is to manipulate the retail traders. After accumulation smart money moves the market in opposite direction .
Distribution phase is the real move. After manipulating retail traders smart money add their positions toward the real direction of market hence moving market opposite to retail mindset.
In above chart i tried to show this po3 strategy developed by ICT .
Before the red folder news market was ranging.. post that big players
manipulated towards the order block and made high 2523..
and started distribution and till now made low near 2504.
Elliott wave and ICT concepts are very easy to learn if one keeps positive mindset of learning.
Disclaimer : Study is for educational purpose
Gold Analysis September 5Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices edged up in Asian trade on Thursday. A US jobs report showed on Wednesday that employment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in July, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in September, which in turn acted as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, concerns about the health of the US economy dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, further supporting the safe-haven precious metal.
However, gold prices lacked strong buying interest as traders appeared reluctant to place strong bullish bets, preferring to wait for key details on the US monthly employment report - commonly known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - due on Friday. Meanwhile, the US economic agenda on Thursday - including the ADP report on private sector employment, the weekly jobless claims and the ISM services PMI - will be looked at for short-term opportunities. However, expectations of the imminent start of the Fed's policy easing cycle could continue to support Gold.
Technical Analysis
Gold is moving back in the sideways range of 2490-2505. After an old liquidity sweep to 2472. The Asian session's upside momentum is not strong enough to break the technical level of 2508. When the European session pushes up to 2508 without breaking through, we can set up a SELL signal at this area. The sell trend may extend further than there is still a way to move up to ATH. Today, when the US session enters, pay attention to the resistance zone of 2512-2514 for a SELL strategy. And the push to the low zone this week and next week could create momentum for the FOMC to push gold to a new ATH.
Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535
Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
BUY price zone 2480 - 2478 stoploss 2475
Golden indicator based Xauusd 23 pts targetCondition Buy above only 2491
Now price running 2488.70
Stoploss............2480.....11 pts
Tp-1................2498......7 pts
Tp-2...............2506......15 pts
Tp-3...............2514.... 23 pts
overall 1% gain chance oneside move only
This level based on Golden Indicator and Education purpose only
XAUUSD 4/9/2024 complex correction has ended?
Looking at H1, the complex correction process will create very difficult conditions for determining the specific structure of the wave. In such a situation, we will rely on the Fibonacci measure to determine the target price zones for the end of the entire correction process based on the previous up wave.
- With such an approach, I will determine the target price levels for this correction downtrend.
- Looking at the chart, we have a temporary 5-wave structure formed. We will rely on this combined with Fibonacci to set up trading zones
- Case 1 if wave 5 has ended, then we expect the price zone 2482 - 2479 to BUY
Case 2 if the price breaks below 2473, then the price zone ending wave 5 will be the price zone 2464 - 2467
- Above the strong supply zone 2510 - 2507 has not been broken yet, so this is still our target to SELL
- Next is the zone 2515 - 2518, this is the strong supply zone above that we choose to place a SELL order/
Trading plan
BUY ZONE: 2482 - 2479
SL: 2472
TP1: 2492
TP2: 2582
TP3: 2499
BUY ZONE: 2464 - 2467 SL: 2454 TP1: 2478 TP2: 2492 TP3: 2499 SELL ZONE: 2510 - 2507 SL: 2520 TP1: 2510 TP2: 2491 TP3: 2482 SELL ZONE: 2515 - 2518 SL: 2525 TP1: 2510 TP2: 2491 TP 3: 2482
XAUUSD 2560Golden Information
Gold prices fell during the North American session as traders returned to their desks following the Labor Day holiday. Data from the United States (US) hinted that business activity contracted, though traders bought the Greenback. The XAU/USD trades at $2,490, down 0.34%.
Gold prices fall despite stronger US Dollar amid economic slowdown signs.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction; employment sub-component improvement offers market some relief.
Despite a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to 3.84%, Gold only briefly recovers after dipping to $2,473.
Price Tag
1. >>2440>>>
2. >>2535>>>
3. >>Short-term up>>2630
XAUUSD STRONGINTRO Current Status
1.Gold prices fall despite stronger US Dollar amid economic slowdown signs.
2.US ISM Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction; employment sub-component improvement offers market some relief.
3.Despite a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to 3.84%, Gold only briefly recovers after dipping to $2,473.
Gold price is upwardly biased, even though momentum shifted in sellers’ favor and opened the door for a drop to $2,470. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hints that buyers are in charge, but in the near term the yellow metal could weaken.
In that event, if XAU/USD drops below $2,500, the next support would be the August 22 low at $2,470. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the confluence of the August 15 swing low and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $2,427-$2,431 area.
GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARDGOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD
DUE TO THESE REASON
A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market
which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable
B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break
C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region
all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward
please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules
that will help you to to become a bettertrader
thank you
XAUUSD 3/9/2024 Downtrend is over?
Looking at H1 we see that the price has reached the target of wave 4 that we expected and then decreased near TP3. Once again I would like to congratulate all of us on continuing to have a big win near Full TP3.
- So now the price is completing the down wave 5 to then continue to increase
- Looking at the overall correction, we can easily identify that this is a complex correction with many intertwined correction structures.
- In a complex correction trend, it is difficult for us to determine when the new trend starts. But with real trading, we only care about the setups that qualify for our trading, I will not try to predict each wave accurately
- Currently, I expect the target of wave 5 to end at the price zone of 2487 - 2484 and this is also our BUY target
- Above, I see 2 large supply concentration zones, which are the 2507 - 2510 zone, this zone is the target zone, the last time the price approached this zone, it was pushed down very quickly, and the 2525 - 2528 zone, looking at the chart, we see that the price was pushed down very deeply after approaching this zone last Friday. and these 2 zones are also our SELL target zones
BUY ZONE: 2487 - 2484
SL: 2477
TP1: 2499
TP2: 2507
TP3: 2518
BUY ZONE: 2471 - 2469
SL: 2461
TP1: 2485
TP2: 2499
TP3: 2510
SELL ZONE: 2507 - 2510
Sl: 2517
TP1: 2500
TP2: 2487
TP3: 2470
SELL ZONE: 2525 - 2528
SL: 2535
TP: 2518
TP2: 2510
TP3: 2500
XAUUSD 9/2/2024 price continues to decrease?
Looking at H1, we see a sharp decline on Friday last week to the 2494 area, signaling that this is wave 3 in the red 5-wave trend above.
- According to the 5-wave structure, the price is currently completing wave 4 and then the price will continue to move in a downward trend to complete wave 5. The target is measured for wave 4 at the price range of 3507 - 2510, this will be our SELL target price range.
- After reaching the target of wave 4, the price continues to move to complete the target of wave 5. Then we measure the target of wave 5 at the range of 2487 - 2484, this is our BUY target price range.
Trading Plan
SELL ZONE: 2507 - 2510
SL: 2517
TP1: 2499
TP2: 2493
TP3: 2487
BUY ZONE: 2487 -2484
SL: 2477
TP1: 2494
TP2: 2499
TP3: 2509
XAUUSD GOLD AT MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL!!FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
XAUUSD (GOLD) Analysis
Current Market Price (CMP): 2503.44
Time Frame: 15 minutes
Market Outlook:
Gold is currently positioned near a critical level, with potential for further upward movement. A key resistance level at 2505 may be tested. If the price holds above this level, there is potential for further gains towards 2510, 2515, 2520, 2525, 2530, and 2545.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels: 2505, 2510, 2515, 2520, 2525, 2530, 2545
Support Zone: 2499 - 2497
Potential Buying Opportunity: Around 2499 to 2497
Major Support Level: 2495
A break below this level could lead to a bearish move towards 2487.
If 2487 is broken, the setup may turn bearish for the upcoming week.
Conclusion:
Traders should mark these levels on their charts and be prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Consider buying near the support zone between 2499 and 2497 for potential upside gains, while keeping an eye on 2487 as a crucial level for potential bearish reversal.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.