XAUUSD (H3) – Liam PlanXAUUSD (H3) – Liam Plan
Late-stage expansion | Look for distribution and sell reactions
Quick summary
Gold has rallied aggressively and is now trading in late-stage bullish expansion, sitting near premium pricing after multiple impulsive legs.
On the macro side, political commentary from Europe highlights a structural shift in global power:
Europe’s influence is weakening as US–Russia discussions bypass Brussels.
BRICS and SCO now represent over half of the world’s population.
Calls for renewed EU–Russia energy cooperation underline long-term uncertainty in Europe’s geopolitical positioning.
This backdrop keeps gold structurally supported, but at current levels, risk shifts toward distribution rather than clean continuation.
Macro context (supportive, but asymmetric risk)
The global balance of power continues to shift from West to East, reinforcing long-term demand for hard assets.
However, much of the near-term geopolitical premium is already priced in after the recent vertical move.
Result: upside continuation is possible, but risk/reward now favors reaction sells over fresh buys.
➡️ Conclusion: don’t fight the macro trend, but don’t chase price either.
Technical view (H3 – based on the chart)
Gold remains in a broader uptrend, but price action shows signs of deceleration and potential distribution near the highs.
Key levels from the chart:
✅ Premium sell zone: 5000 – 5050 (upper range / distribution area)
✅ Sell reaction zone: 4920 – 4950 (local highs / rejection area)
✅ Bullish retracement support: 4700 – 4750 (fib + structure)
✅ Major liquidity / deep support: 4350 – 4450
Price is trading far above equilibrium, increasing the probability of rotation back into value or sell-side liquidity.
Trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
1️⃣ SELL scenarios (priority – late-stage reaction)
A. SELL at premium / distribution zone
✅ Sell: 5000 – 5050
Condition: clear rejection / loss of momentum on M15–H1
SL: above the high
TP1: 4920
TP2: 4750
TP3: 4450 (if distribution expands)
Logic: Late-stage rallies often form rounded tops or distribution patterns before rotating lower. This zone favors risk-defined shorts, not breakout buys.
B. SELL lower high / reaction
✅ Sell: 4920 – 4950
Condition: failure to hold highs + bearish shift on lower TF
TP: 4750 → 4450
Logic: This area acts as a reaction zone inside the distribution range — ideal for tactical sells.
2️⃣ BUY scenario (secondary – value only)
BUY only at deep retracement
✅ Buy zone: 4350 – 4450
Condition: liquidity sweep + strong bullish reaction
TP: 4700 → 4920
Logic: This is the first area where long-term buyers regain a clear R:R edge. No interest in buying above value.
Key notes
Late-stage trends punish impatience.
Avoid mid-range entries.
Expect false breakouts near the highs.
Confirmation > conviction.
What’s your bias here:
selling distribution near the highs, or waiting patiently for a deeper pullback into 4700–4450 value?
— Liam
