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Xauusdanalysis

XAUUSD 45-Minute Chart – Strong Uptrend with Overbought MomentumMarket Structure & Trend XAUUSD is in a clear bullish trend, respecting a rising trendline on the 45-minute timeframe. Price is making higher highs and higher lows, confirming strong upside momentum. Recent candles show continuation strength, not a reversal pattern yet. 2. RSI (14) RSI is around 75.8, firmly in overbought territory. Multiple bearish divergence labels are visible: Price makes higher highs RSI makes lower or flat highs This suggests bullish momentum is weakening, not that price must immediately fall. Interpretation: Overbought + divergence = risk of pullback or consolidation, especially near resistance. 3. Awesome Oscillator (AO) AO is strongly positive (~88) and rising. Green histogram dominance confirms bullish momentum is still active. Slight flattening at the top hints momentum may be peaking. 4. MACD (12,26) MACD line above signal line → bullish continuation Histogram is positive but losing expansion, aligning with RSI divergence. This often precedes pause or shallow correction, not an instant reversal. 5. Price Behavior Price is still above trendline support No decisive bearish engulfing or breakdown candle yet Buyers remain in control, but late buyers face higher risk
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
2
Trump Davos Warning Keeps Gold in Strong Uptrend Market Context (News → Flow) Comments from Trump at Davos, including renewed threats and pressure around Greenland, have escalated geopolitical uncertainty during the Asian session. Markets reacted in classic risk-off mode: USD weakens amid political uncertainty Equities hesitate, risk appetite fades Safe-haven flows rotate into Gold, driving momentum higher Gold is not moving on speculation — it is reacting to capital seeking protection. Technical Structure (H1 – SMC) Overall structure remains bullish, confirmed by multiple BOS Price is trending inside a well-defined ascending channel Recent pullback respected the bullish FVG, showing strong demand No bearish acceptance below structure at this stage ➡️ FVG respected → continuation remains in play Key Decision Zones Upper FVG: 4,765.425 Mid support: 4,727.188 Current impulse high: 4,883.900 These are reaction zones, not chase levels. Scenarios (If – Then) Primary Scenario – Trend Continuation If price holds above 4,765.425 Bullish structure remains intact Gold can continue advancing toward higher channel resistance Alternative Scenario – Technical Pullback If price loses 4,765.425 A pullback toward 4,727.188 is possible for rebalancing Only a clear H1 close below 4,727.188 would weaken the bullish bias Summary Geopolitical rhetoric is accelerating volatility, but structure still leads the narrative. Gold is not reacting emotionally — it is pricing risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jeremy_NPC
Trump Davos Warning Keeps Gold in Strong UptrendMarket Context (News → Flow) Comments from Trump at Davos, including renewed threats and pressure around Greenland, have escalated geopolitical uncertainty during the Asian session. Markets reacted in classic risk-off mode: USD weakens amid political uncertainty Equities hesitate, risk appetite fades Safe-haven flows rotate into Gold, driving momentum higher Gold is not moving on speculation — it is reacting to capital seeking protection. Technical Structure (H1 – SMC) Overall structure remains bullish, confirmed by multiple BOS Price is trending inside a well-defined ascending channel Recent pullback respected the bullish FVG, showing strong demand No bearish acceptance below structure at this stage ➡️ FVG respected → continuation remains in play Key Decision Zones Upper FVG: 4,765.425 Mid support: 4,727.188 Current impulse high: 4,883.900 These are reaction zones, not chase levels. Scenarios (If – Then) Primary Scenario – Trend Continuation If price holds above 4,765.425 Bullish structure remains intact Gold can continue advancing toward higher channel resistance Alternative Scenario – Technical Pullback If price loses 4,765.425 A pullback toward 4,727.188 is possible for rebalancing Only a clear H1 close below 4,727.188 would weaken the bullish bias Summary Geopolitical rhetoric is accelerating volatility, but structure still leads the narrative. Gold is not reacting emotionally — it is pricing risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jeremy_NPC
XAUUSD – H2 Technical AnalysisXAUUSD – H2 Technical Outlook: Pullback Builds Value Before the Next Expansion | Lana ✨ Gold continues to trade within a strong bullish structure on the H2 timeframe. The recent rally was clearly impulsive, and the current move looks like a technical pullback to rebalance liquidity, not a trend reversal. 📈 Market Structure & Trend Context XAUUSD remains bullish, with the higher-high / higher-low structure still intact. Price is also respecting the ascending trendline, which has acted as key dynamic support throughout this uptrend. The current sequence aligns well with a classic bullish cycle: Impulse → Pullback → Continuation. As long as structural support holds, Lana’s primary bias remains: BUY with the trend, not sell against it. 🔍 Key Technical Zones & Value Areas Buy POC (Value Zone): 4764 – 4770 This area aligns with a high-volume node (POC/VAH) and the rising trendline, making it a strong value zone for dip-buying opportunities. Near-term resistance: 4843 A key level that needs to be re-accepted to confirm the next continuation leg. Psychological reaction zone: 4900 Likely to produce hesitation, profit-taking, or short-term volatility. Upper expansion targets: 5000 and potentially the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, where higher-timeframe liquidity may be resting. 🎯 Trading Plan (H2 Structure-Based) ✅ Primary Scenario: BUY the Pullback Buy entry: 👉 4766 – 4770 Lana prefers to engage only if price pulls back into the POC zone and shows bullish confirmation on H1–H2 (trendline hold, clear rebound / rejection of lower prices). Stop Loss: 👉 4756 – 4758 (Placed ~8–10 points below entry, under the POC zone and below the ascending trendline) 🎯 Take Profit Targets (Scaled Exits) TP1: 4843 First resistance — scale partial profits and reduce risk. TP2: 4900 Psychological level — expect possible reactions. TP3: 5000 Major psychological objective and expansion milestone. TP4 (extension): 5050 – 5080 Potential 2.618 Fibonacci extension / higher-timeframe liquidity zone. Lana’s approach is to scale out into targets, then protect the position by managing risk (e.g., moving SL to breakeven once price confirms continuation). 🌍 Macro Context (Brief) Gold remains supported by its role as a safe-haven and strategic reserve asset amid ongoing geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Recent headlines highlighting the rise in the value of large gold reserves reinforce that institutional demand for gold as a long-term hedge remains active, which supports the medium-term bullish bias. 🧠 Lana’s View This is a pullback within an uptrend, not a bearish reversal. Lana focuses on buying value, not chasing highs. Stay patient, trade the structure, and let price come into your zone. ✨ Respect the trend, stay disciplined, and let the market come to your levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 21, 2026 Momentum – Daily (D1) momentum is currently increasing, indicating that the bullish trend is still intact and the upward move has not yet finished. – H4 momentum is compressing in the overbought zone. This shows that the uptrend is still being maintained; however, momentum has weakened and a potential reversal may occur at any time. – H1 momentum has started to reverse, suggesting that a short-term corrective pullback on the H1 timeframe is likely. Wave Structure Daily (D1) Timeframe – On the daily chart, price remains within the blue Wave 5 structure, with Wave 5 continuing to extend. – The next key level to monitor is 4957, which corresponds to the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the Wave 1–3 range. H4 Timeframe – The current rally is steep and impulsive, suggesting that price is likely moving within orange Wave 3. – Inside orange Wave 3, we can clearly observe a five-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5) marked in green, as shown on the chart. – According to Elliott Wave principles, once Wave 3 is completed, the market should enter a corrective phase forming orange Wave 4. – It is important to note that H4 momentum is compressed in the overbought zone, signaling that while the bullish move may continue, momentum is weakening and reversal risk is increasing. – However, since the blue Wave 5 is still extending, by principle we should not attempt to fade or counter-trade an extending wave. H1 Timeframe – Within the green five-wave structure, we can also identify a purple 1–2–3–4–5 structure, with purple Wave 3 currently extending. – By principle, it is not advisable to project precise targets for an extending wave, as accuracy is typically very low. – At this stage, the best approach is to remain patient and continue observing for additional confirmation, rather than taking aggressive sell positions while the bullish structure remains dominant.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD H1 – Liquidity Grab Completed, Focus on Buy the DipMarket Context Gold has just completed a strong impulsive rally, leaving behind multiple liquidity pockets and imbalance zones below. The current pullback is technical in nature, serving as a rebalancing phase after expansion rather than a trend reversal. From a macro perspective, safe-haven demand and a cautious Fed outlook continue to support Gold, keeping the broader bias tilted to the upside. Technical Structure (H1 – MMF) Market structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. The recent sell-off is a liquidity grab into previous demand zones. No confirmed bearish CHoCH at this stage. Price is still holding above the major H1 GAP liquidity zone. Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY Prefer BUY setups on pullbacks into: BUY zone 1: 4,759 – 4,729 BUY zone 2 (deep): 4,669 – 4,600 Only execute BUYs after clear bullish reaction and structure hold. Avoid FOMO at premium levels. Upside Targets TP1: 4,817 TP2: 4,892 TP3: 4,898 (liquidity sweep zone) Alternative Scenario If price fails to hold above 4,729 and sweeps deeper liquidity into the GAP H1 zone, wait for re-accumulation signals before re-entering BUYs. Invalidation An H1 close below 4,600 invalidates the bullish setup and requires a full structure reassessment. Summary The broader trend remains bullish. The current move is a corrective pullback into liquidity, offering high-quality buy-the-dip opportunities. Patience and confirmation remain key — let price come to you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 20, 2026 1. Momentum D1 Timeframe – The D1 momentum has started to show signs of a bullish reversal. However, we still need to wait for today’s D1 candle close to fully confirm this reversal signal. – If confirmed, the bullish trend is likely to continue. – That said, since the reversal point is forming relatively close to the oversold zone, the upside potential of this move may be limited and expectations should be managed carefully. H4 Timeframe – H4 momentum is approaching the oversold area. – If the current price action holds and we get a bullish H4 candle close, momentum will officially enter the oversold zone and may reverse upward. – In that case, the bullish trend on the H4 timeframe will be reinforced. H1 Timeframe – H1 momentum is currently rising, indicating that the short-term bullish bias remains intact. – Alternatively, price may continue to move sideways before a clearer direction emerges. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Wave Structure – There is no major change in the D1 wave count. – Price remains within the blue Wave 5. – Combined with the emerging bullish reversal signal on D1 momentum, this suggests that Wave 5 may continue to extend higher. H4 Wave Structure – Within the blue Wave 5, the H4 structure consists of five yellow sub-waves. – Price is currently moving inside yellow Wave 5. – With H4 momentum preparing to reverse upward, yellow Wave 5 may continue its advance. – However, special attention should be paid to the price channel: if price rises and then returns back inside the channel, it may signal that yellow Wave 5 has already completed. H1 Wave Structure – Inside yellow Wave 5, we can identify five purple sub-waves. – At the moment, price is in the final stage of purple Wave 4 and preparing to enter purple Wave 5. 3. Targets & Key Price Zones – Purple Wave 5 target: 4737 – From the Volume Profile, the 4641 – 4661 zone is a liquidity void (FVG). – Price is currently being rejected from this area, indicating that 4661 is acting as a strong support level. – By combining strong support from the FVG zone with H4 momentum approaching oversold and preparing for a bullish reversal, this area becomes a high-quality zone to look for Buy opportunities targeting the completion of Wave 5. 4. Trading Plan – Buy Setup: 4667 – 4665 – Stop Loss: 4647 – Take Profit 1: 4687 – Take Profit 2: 4737
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
XAUUSD – Trend-Following StrategyXAUUSD – Trend-Following Plan: Prefer Buying the Dip (H1) Gold is still holding a bullish short-term structure with higher highs and higher lows. The recent push up shows buyers are in control, so my main focus is NOT chasing price, but waiting for a clean pullback into key support to join the trend with controlled risk. 🎯 MAIN SCENARIO – BUY THE DIP (Priority) Buy Zone: 4687 – 4690 Stop Loss: Below 4655 Take Profits: TP1: 4735 – 4745 TP2: 4780 TP3: 4804 – 4808 Why this zone? 4687–4690 is the key area highlighted on the chart as a major level. After price pushed above it, this zone can act as new support (previous resistance becomes support). If price retests and holds with clear rejection (wicks, bullish engulfing, strong bounce), this is the higher-probability buy location in line with the trend. 🔁 SECONDARY SCENARIO – DEEP BUY AT LIQUIDITY / IMBALANCE Buy Zone: 4620 – 4600 (Liquidity Imbalance area) Stop Loss: Below 4575 Take Profits: TP1: 4687 TP2: 4735 TP3: 4780+ Why this zone? The chart shows a clear liquidity imbalance below price that has not been fully filled. If the market performs a deeper sweep (stop-hunt / flush), this zone becomes a strong candidate for a trend continuation buy with better R:R. 📊 TECHNICAL VIEW (What the chart is telling us) Price is still trading within a bullish structure and respecting the rising trendline. The latest impulse up suggests active demand, not just a weak drift. The most logical approach is to let price come to you: buy support, not breakout candles. The upside magnet remains the 4804–4808 area, which is also the next major reaction zone. 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT (Keep it simple) Gold remains supported in the broader environment where risk sentiment can shift quickly. Unless USD strength returns aggressively, pullbacks are more likely to be bought than to start a full bearish reversal. That’s why the plan stays trend-following: wait for dips and execute with discipline. 🧠 EXECUTION RULES (Discipline > Opinions) No FOMO buys at extended highs. Only take the trade inside the planned zones and only with confirmation. Risk per trade stays controlled (1–2% max). If the idea is wrong, cut it fast and reassess—no “hope trading.” 📌 SUMMARY Bias: Bullish (H1) Strategy: Buy the dip at 4687–4690, or deeper at 4620–4600 Targets: 4735–4745 → 4780 → 4804–4808 If you want, I can also rewrite this in a shorter TradingView-post style (more punchy, fewer words) while keeping the same levels and rules.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
1
Greenland Tension Escalates – Gold Finds Its N Market Context (News → Capital Flow) Escalating tensions around the “Greenland purchase” narrative are increasing geopolitical risk. Markets are responding in a familiar pattern: USD weakens as political uncertainty rises Equities face corrective pressure amid risk-off sentiment Safe-haven flows return to Gold, supporting further upside In this environment, Gold is not rising on technicals alone, but because defensive capital is rotating back into the market. Technical Structure (H1 – SMC) Price previously executed a downside Liquidity Sweep A bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) followed The impulsive leg created a clear bullish FVG, signaling supply–demand imbalance Price is currently holding above the FVG, keeping the bullish structure intact ➡️ A familiar model in play: Liquidity Sweep → FVG → Continuation Key Zones (Decision Levels) Upper FVG: 4,642.447 Lower FVG: 4,622.238 Deeper support (OB): around 4,596.733 These are reaction zones, not FOMO areas. Scenarios (If – Then) Primary Scenario – Continuation (~70%) If price holds above 4,622.238 The FVG is considered defended Bullish continuation toward higher levels remains favored Aligned with USD weakness + risk-off environment Alternative Scenario – Pullback (~30%) If price loses 4,622.238 A corrective move toward the OB near 4,596.733 becomes likely Only an H1 close below the OB would materially weaken the bullish outlook Summary Geopolitical headlines are amplifying volatility, but the final decision lies in price reaction at the FVG. Gold is not chasing headlines — it is following capital seeking safety.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
“Liquidity Grab → Pivot Support Holds → Next Bullish Leg Loading🔍 Market Structure & Key Observations Overall market structure remains bullish with clear higher highs & higher lows ✔️ Price is respecting the upward trendline, confirming ongoing bullish momentum 📈 The recent sharp drop was a liquidity sweep into the Pivot Point / Demand zone, followed by a strong bullish reaction → Smart Money accumulation 💼💰 Multiple POI (Point of Interest) reactions below show buyers are active on dips Current consolidation above the Pivot Point zone suggests preparation for the next impulsive move up, not distribution 🎯 Suitable Target Zones (High Probability) 🎯 Primary Target (TP1) ➤ 4,615 – 4,625 🎯 Prior resistance / range high Liquidity resting above recent consolidation highs Most realistic short-term objective 🚀 Extended Target (TP2) ➤ 4,650 – 4,670 🚀💸 Measured move from the last bullish impulse Upper expansion of the ascending structure Valid if bullish momentum accelerates 📌 Optional BUY Trade Idea (Trend-Following) 🟢 Buy Zone (on pullback): ➤ 4,560 – 4,580 (confluence of Pivot Point + trendline support) ❌ Stop-Loss (invalidation): ➤ Below 4,540 🎯 Take Profit: TP1: 4,620 🎯 TP2: 4,660 🚀 📊 Risk–Reward: approx. 1:2.5 – 1:3+ 🧭 Market Outlook Summary Factor Bias Trend Bullish 📈 Momentum Buyers in control 💪 Structure Continuation pattern ✅ Liquidity Upside targets active 💧
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pipshunter27
2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | January 18, 2026 Momentum Weekly (W1) – Weekly momentum is currently preparing to move into the oversold zone. It is highly likely that when the Asian session opens tomorrow, W1 momentum will officially enter the oversold area. – However, we are observing a divergence: price continues to rise while momentum has already turned downward. This indicates that price may still maintain its upward movement, but the strength of the move is weakening. Daily (D1) – Daily momentum is currently declining. – With this condition, on the daily timeframe price is likely to continue a corrective move or move sideways in the near term. H4 – H4 momentum is showing signs of a bullish reversal. – Therefore, when the Asian session opens, there is a high probability of a bullish move during the next trading day. Elliott Wave Structure Weekly (W1) – On the weekly timeframe, price is still developing within orange wave 5. – Inside orange wave 5, we can clearly identify a 12345 impulsive structure in blue, and price is currently located in blue wave 5. – From experience, when price is near the peak of a wave on the daily timeframe, market behavior often becomes volatile with strong and irregular price swings. → Therefore, extra caution is required at this stage. Daily (D1) – By drawing a price channel for the blue 12345 structure, we can see that price has already reached the upper boundary of the channel. – This suggests that price may be approaching the target zone of blue wave 5. – Within blue wave 5, a smaller 12345 structure in yellow is forming. → To analyze this structure in more detail, we move down to the H4 timeframe. H4 – On the H4 timeframe, price is likely forming a yellow 12345 structure, with price currently positioned in yellow wave 4. – After drawing a channel for the yellow 5-wave structure, price is now trading near the lower boundary of this channel. – Combined with the fact that H4 momentum is preparing to reverse upward, and the appearance of a strong H4 pin-bar / long lower wick candle, the probability is high that price will produce a bullish leg to complete yellow wave 5. Price Targets & Trading Perspective – The projected targets for yellow wave 5 are located at 4661 and 4737. – These levels are derived from Fibonacci projections. When price reaches these zones, we will combine Fibonacci targets with the upper price channel to confirm where wave 5 is truly completed. – The current price zone around 4581 is considered a very good Buy area. – However, at this stage, risk management must be extremely strict, as price behavior near wave tops is often highly volatile before the final target is completed. Final Notes – Other potential price zones require additional confirmation after the market opens. – I will update these levels later once clearer price action develops for your reference.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD (Gold) 45-Minute Chart – Bullish Trend Holding with MomenTrend & Structure: Gold remains above the ascending trendline, confirming a valid short-term bullish trend. The recent candles show sideways consolidation after a strong impulsive rise, which typically favors continuation as long as support holds. Price Action: The market is forming higher lows while compressing below recent highs. This price behavior suggests indecision, not rejection—buyers are still defending dips. RSI (14): RSI is around 57–58, holding above the 50 level. This indicates bullish momentum, though momentum has stabilized rather than accelerated, consistent with consolidation. Awesome Oscillator (AO): AO bars remain above zero but decreasing, signaling that bullish momentum is cooling, not reversing. A fresh green expansion would confirm continuation. MACD: MACD histogram is slightly negative and contracting, while lines are flattening. This supports a pause within trend, not a confirmed bearish crossover. Key Levels: Immediate Support: Rising trendline / recent higher-low zone Resistance: Consolidation highs near the recent swing top Trend Failure: Strong close below the trendline
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
1
Gold Trapped in Liquidity Range – Expansion PendingGold is currently trading in a post-impulse environment after completing a clear Elliott Wave advance. With the higher-timeframe impulse exhausted, price action has transitioned into a controlled consolidation driven by liquidity, rather than trend continuation. At this stage, the market is not trending — it is preparing. Market Structure & Liquidity Context Price is now boxed between a well-defined Equal High and Equal Low, forming a classic liquidity range. This structure suggests that Smart Money is engineering both sides of liquidity before committing to the next directional move. The upper range aligns with premium pricing, where buy-side liquidity is resting. The lower range sits in discount territory, overlapping with higher-timeframe demand. This environment favors rotation and stop-hunt behavior, not impulsive expansion. Key Trading Scenarios 🔴 Sell reaction at the highs If price pushes above the Equal High and taps into the 4688–4690 premium zone , this area is expected to attract sell-side interest. A clear rejection or hesitation here would signal that buy-side liquidity has been taken, opening the door for a rotation back into the range. 🟢 Buy reaction at the lows If price drops and reaches the 4388–4390 discount zone , this level becomes a key area to watch for support. Strong rejection or stabilization would suggest Smart Money defense, favoring a bounce back toward equilibrium. Expectation & Bias This is a rotation market, not a trend market. Directional continuation should only be expected after a clear break and acceptance outside the range. Until then: Patience > prediction Liquidity > indicators Reaction > anticipation Let price show its hand. 💬 Do you expect expansion to come from the highs or the lows first? Your perspective matters — share your view.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Wendy_Grace
6
Trump Imposes Tariffs on EU – Gold Creates a R Market Context Trump’s announcement of new tariff measures on EU goods has triggered a strong risk-off wave, pushing capital out of risk assets and into Gold as a safe-haven. The USD shows mixed reactions, while Gold rallies sharply and forms a rare bullish GAP, clearly reflecting defensive market sentiment. The key question now is not whether Gold is strong or weak, but: Will this GAP be filled, or held for trend continuation? Technical Structure (H1) The broader structure remains bullish, confirmed by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS). The latest impulsive move has created a bullish Fair Value Gap (GAP) above the equilibrium zone. Price is currently holding above the FVG, with no clear acceptance back into lower levels. ➡️ In a geopolitical and trade-risk environment, GAPs are not required to be filled immediately. Decision Zones Upper FVG / GAP: 4,634.188 Equilibrium Zone: 4,619.928 Lower Support / GAP Base: 4,596.602 Scenarios (If – Then) Scenario 1 – GAP Holds & Continuation If price holds above 4,619.928, the GAP remains protected. Bullish continuation toward higher levels becomes likely as safe-haven flows persist. Scenario 2 – Technical GAP Fill If price loses 4,619.928, a retracement toward 4,596.602 is likely for rebalancing. Only a clear H1 close below 4,596.602 would confirm a deeper GAP fill. Summary Trade-related confrontation is changing price behavior, causing Gold to react more aggressively than usual. At this stage, the GAP represents the decision point between continuation and correction. Reaction at the GAP will define the next move. Trade the reaction, not the headline.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:8 RISK REWARD GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:8 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by tradergyan01
7
Chumtrades XAUUSD H2 | Is the Liquidity Sweep Over?Chumtrades – XAUUSD H2 | Has the Liquidity Sweep Finished, or Is There More Downside Ahead? On Friday, the market reacted strongly after Trump’s comments regarding Kevin Hassett, when Trump expressed his preference for Hassett to remain in his current role rather than taking a new position. 👉 As a result, gold printed a long wick liquidity sweep back into the prior ATH zone, around 4530–453X, before closing back above 456X. This brings us to the key question: Was this sweep enough for the BUY side, or is the market still looking to test lower levels? Political developments will be a key driver for gold direction in the coming week. 📰 Key Political Factors to Monitor 1. Trump – Greenland The US has imposed 10% tariffs, with the possibility of increasing them to 25% on countries that do not support the annexation of Greenland No fixed deadline, tariffs remain until Greenland becomes part of the US → This is a supportive factor for gold, especially amid rising geopolitical uncertainty → This news may directly impact the market open → If price reacts strongly, avoid SELLs near resistance 2. Iran – Protests Monitor the risk of Trump returning to direct intervention → A potential headline-driven volatility trigger 🟢 Key Support Zones to Watch 4530 – 4535 4515 – 4510 4480 – 4482 4462 4410 – 4407 🔴 Key Resistance Zones to Monitor 4618 – 4628 4648 – 4650 4655 – 4660 4698 – 4699 ⚠️ Trading Notes Price levels are zones for observation, not instant entry points SELL setups around 462X must be evaluated based on news reaction If momentum accelerates on headlines → stay flat and avoid trading against strength 💬 Question for the New Week Is the market finishing its liquidity collection on the BUY side, or was Friday’s sweep the final test before the next leg higher? 📌 Follow Chumtrades for proactive market analysis, structured trade planning, and risk management insights.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Gold weekly rotation between 4682 supply and 4420 demand🟡 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (17/01) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but weekly price action has clearly transitioned into a controlled Smart Money rotation. After delivering buy-side liquidity into premium, continuation has stalled. This week’s hot drivers — USD volatility, U.S. yield repricing, and renewed Fed rate-cut expectations amid sticky inflation data and geopolitical hedging flows — are creating ideal conditions for inducement and liquidity engineering rather than clean trend expansion. With risk sentiment fragile and positioning crowded, Gold is behaving typically at extremes: sweeps, fake breaks, and mean reversion, not impulsive continuation. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H4–H1) Current Phase: HTF bullish bias remains valid, but internal structure shows distribution from premium after liquidity delivery. Key Idea: Sell reactions from premium supply, or wait patiently for a deeper pullback into HTF demand to reload longs. Structural Notes: • HTF BOS confirms bullish dominance • Buy-side liquidity already taken above highs • Clear rotation channel forming • Liquidity shortage zone acting as magnet • Discount demand aligns with prior OB + channel support 💧 Liquidity Zones & Key Levels • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4680 – 4682 | SL 4690 • 🟢 OB BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → OB / FVG retest → expansion or deeper rotation 🎯 Execution Rules 🔴 SELL GOLD 4680 – 4682 | SL 4690 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium channel supply ✔ Buy-side liquidity taken above recent highs ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on H1–M15 ✔ Downside BOS confirms distribution ✔ Entry via bearish FVG or supply OB Targets: • 4620 — internal reaction • 4560 — liquidity shortage • 4480 — deeper weekly rotation • Trail aggressively (distribution play) 🟢 OB BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 Rules: ✔ Sweep into weekly discount zone ✔ Strong confluence: HTF OB + channel support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH on M15–H1 ✔ Impulsive BOS with displacement ✔ Entry via refined bullish OB Targets: • 4560 — first reaction • 4620 — mid-range liquidity • 4680+ — continuation if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Premium zones = liquidity traps • Expect false breaks during macro headlines • No entry without MSS + BOS • Reduce risk near HTF extremes 📍 Summary Gold is bullish by structure, but this week is about precision execution, not prediction: • Premium may deliver a Smart Money sell from 4680–4682, or • Discount at 4420–4418 may reload longs for the next impulsive leg. Let liquidity move first. Let structure confirm second. Smart Money controls — patience pays. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for weekly Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
Gold fluctuates between 4672 resistance and 4560 support.🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (16/01) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but intraday price action has shifted into controlled rotation. With today’s hot drivers — USD volatility, U.S. yield fluctuations, and ongoing Fed rate-cut speculation — Smart Money is no longer pushing continuation. Instead, liquidity is being engineered around premium and discount zones. Ahead of U.S. macro headlines and inflation-linked expectations, Gold is behaving typically at extremes: inducement, stop-hunts, and mean reversion rather than impulsive trend extension. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1–M15) Current Phase: HTF bullish bias intact, while intraday structure shows corrective rotation after buy-side liquidity was taken. Key Idea: Look for distribution from premium supply or a deeper pullback into discount demand for buying/entry reloads. Structural Notes: • HTF BOS confirms bullish dominance • Buy-side liquidity already delivered • Price rotating, not expanding impulsively • Internal FVG acting as downside magnet • Discount demand aligns with prior OB support 💧 Liquidity Zones & Triggers • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4670 – 4672 | SL 4680 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4561 – 4559 | SL 4551 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → OB/FVG retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules 🔴 SELL GOLD 4670 – 4672 | SL 4680 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium supply ✔ Buy-side liquidity taken above highs ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS ✔ Entry via bearish FVG or supply OB Targets: • 4620 — internal reaction • 4585 — liquidity pool • Trail aggressively (distribution play) 🟢 BUY GOLD 4561 – 4559 | SL 4551 Rules: ✔ Sweep into discount demand ✔ Confluence with OB + FVG ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Strong upside BOS with displacement ✔ Entry via refined bullish OB Targets: • 4620 — first reaction • 4670 — internal liquidity • 4700+ — continuation if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Premium zones = liquidity traps • Expect fake breaks during news volatility • No entry without MSS + BOS • Reduce size near extremes 📍 Summary Gold is bullish by structure, but today is about execution, not prediction: • Premium may deliver a Smart Money sell from 4670–4672, or • Discount at 4561–4559 may reload buying/entry for the next leg higher. Let liquidity move first. Let structure confirm second. Smart Money controls — patience pays. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
4
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 16, 2025 Momentum Daily (D1) – Daily momentum is currently showing signs of weakening and turning lower. – Yesterday’s daily candle has not yet confirmed this reversal; therefore, we still need to wait for today’s daily close. – If the D1 momentum reversal is confirmed, a bearish trend lasting at least several daily candles is expected. H4 – H4 momentum is currently declining; therefore, the bearish bias on the H4 timeframe remains valid. – Price is likely to continue moving lower until H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone. H1 – H1 momentum is preparing to reverse to the upside. – As a result, a short-term technical rebound on the H1 timeframe can be expected. Wave Structure Daily (D1) Wave Structure – On the D1 timeframe, a complete 5-wave impulse structure (1–2–3–4–5, marked in blue) is visible, with price currently trading within wave 5 (blue). – The length of wave 5 (blue) is currently positioned between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1–3 (blue). – At the same time, wave 5 is approximately equal in length to wave 1 (blue). – Combined with the weakening and potential reversal of D1 momentum, this confluence suggests that the top of wave 5 is likely forming. – After wave 5 completes, price is expected to decline in line with the D1 momentum reversal. H4 Wave Structure – The D1 wave 5 (blue) is subdivided into a smaller 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5, marked in yellow) on the H4 timeframe. – Price is currently trading within wave 5 (yellow). – Wave 5 (yellow) shows signs of extension, with its length approximately equal to wave 1–3 (yellow), and price has already reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel. – In addition, the price structure near the top suggests that a Head and Shoulders pattern is forming. – H4 momentum has already reversed to the downside, and once H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone, price is expected to break below the neckline drawn on the H4 chart. H1 Wave Structure – On the H1 timeframe, price is currently moving sideways for an extended period, creating a noisy and corrective structure. – Based on the Volume Profile, price is trading within a liquidity zone between 4581 and 4640. – At the moment, price is concentrated in the 4581 – 4621 liquidity area and is trading below the green POC line, indicating that sellers are temporarily in control. – The current H1 momentum rebound is very important. – If H1 momentum moves into the overbought zone but price fails to break above 4621, this area will be considered a valid sell opportunity. Trading Plan – Sell Zone: 4611 – 4613 – Stop Loss: 4631 – Take Profit 1: 4520 – Take Profit 2: 4473 – Take Profit 3: 4317 – The main downside target is the D1 wave 4 (blue) area around 4317, which is typically the level price retraces to following a completed 5-wave impulse.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
XAUUSD – Bearish pressure, monitor breakdown zone (H1)Market Context (H1) Gold is trading inside a descending structure, with price repeatedly rejected from the upper supply zones. The recent recovery attempts remain corrective and lack follow-through, suggesting sellers are still in control in the short term. From a fundamental angle, markets are cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. data, keeping gold vulnerable to downside moves while risk appetite remains unstable. This environment favors sell-on-rallies until structure shifts. Structure & Price Action H1 structure is bearish / corrective, with lower highs intact. Price continues to respect the descending trendline and supply layers above. The zone around 4,581 is a key breakdown level — loss of this area could accelerate selling pressure. Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – SELL Continuation Preferred SELL zones: 4,607 – 4,618 4,634 area (strong supply cap) Look for bearish reactions or rejection signals at these zones. Avoid chasing mid-range moves. Downside Targets TP1: 4,581 TP2: 4,557 Extension: deeper liquidity if momentum expands Alternative Scenario If price fails to break below 4,581 and reclaims 4,618 with strong H1 close, pause SELL bias and wait for structure confirmation. Invalidation H1 close above 4,634 → bearish scenario invalid, reassess market structure. Summary Bias remains bearish while below supply. The optimal strategy is patience — sell at premium zones or wait for a confirmed breakdown to follow momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Geopolitical Tensions Keep Gold Bid Macro & Fundamental Context Escalating geopolitical risks, ongoing regional conflicts, and rising political uncertainty continue to drive risk-off sentiment across global markets. In this environment: The USD shows mixed reactions as demand for safety competes with expectations of policy flexibility. Gold remains structurally supported as capital rotates into safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. As long as global tensions remain unresolved, downside moves in Gold are likely to be corrective rather than trend-breaking. Technical Structure (H1) Gold remains in a bullish market structure, confirmed by multiple BOS (Break of Structure). The current pullback is unfolding into stacked Fair Value Gaps (FVG) — a typical rebalancing phase in an uptrend. No confirmed bearish structure break at this stage. Key Price Zones Intraday Resistance: 4,581 Upper FVG: 4,569.369 Mid FVG: 4,545.716 – 4,535.432 Deep FVG / Structure Support: 4,512.551 Scenarios (If – Then) Scenario 1 – Bullish Rebalance If price holds above 4,535.432 – 4,512.551, expect buyers to step in. A recovery above 4,581 would reopen the path toward 4,620+. Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Sweep A deeper pullback into 4,512.551 is still acceptable within the bullish structure. Only a clear H1 close below 4,512.551 would weaken the bullish bias. Summary Gold is reacting to global uncertainty, not just technicals. As long as geopolitical risks persist, buy-the-dip remains the dominant mindset. Risk-off flows favor Gold. Structure defines the bias.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
1
Gold Before CPI: Top or Trap?Catching Gold’s Top Before CPI: A Good Trade or a Psychological Trap? 🧭 1. STRATEGIC CONTEXT Primary trend: GOLD remains in an uptrend; the higher-timeframe structure is still intact. Macro backdrop: CPI tonight may cause short-term volatility. However, geopolitics is currently a stronger driver than CPI. Key geopolitical risks: Greenland tensions → escalating global strategic rivalry. Protests in Iran, power and internet cuts → rising Middle East risks. 👉 Strategic implication: Gold continues to be supported as a safe-haven asset → pullbacks are for buying, not for chasing shorts. 📊 2. CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE Price is: Holding the ascending trendline Consolidating in a box, compressing ahead of CPI Market condition: High probability of false breakouts Top-catching traps are very likely before the news 📍 3. KEY PRICE LEVELS 🔴 RESISTANCE 4,680 – 4,700 → Previous high / ATH zone → Reactive sells only if clear rejection appears 4,655 – 4,660 → Intermediate resistance, easily swept pre-CPI 🟣 CONSOLIDATION BOX 4,595 – 4,630 → Sideways range ahead of CPI → No FOMO inside the box 🟢 SUPPORT 4,545 – 4,550 → Major confluence support 4,480 → Medium-term support, trendline retest 4,420 → Deep support, last bullish structure zone 📝 4. IMPORTANT NOTES Higher CPI: May trigger a technical pullback ❌ Does NOT automatically mean a top Lower / in-line CPI: Gold may consolidate above highs and break ATH Selling before CPI: → Reactive scalps only, no holding Buying: → Only when price reaches key zones with clear reaction 🎯 5. STRATEGIC MINDSET ❌ Don’t force top-catching while geopolitics supports gold ✅ Focus on risk management – wait for zones – wait for confirmation 🧠 Before CPI: survival > profit
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1