Gold Awaits NFP Data: Will It Explode or Break Down from Range?XAUUSD – Gold Awaits NFP Data: Will It Explode or Break Down from Range?
Gold remains in a consolidation phase, coiling tightly ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. With traders on edge, the market is poised for a breakout – but in which direction?
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL INSIGHT
Donald Trump reignited pressure on the Federal Reserve, calling for an immediate rate cut, especially after the recent ADP Employment Report showed the weakest job growth in over two years.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing that “no rush” to cut rates unless inflation convincingly trends lower.
Meanwhile, U.S. national debt is projected to hit $55 trillion by 2034, with unchecked fiscal expansion. This is fueling a global central bank gold-buying spree, with many purchases not even officially reported.
💡 This confluence of macroeconomic stress, monetary uncertainty, and geopolitical tension is pushing gold into the spotlight as a safe haven.
🔍 MARKET POSITIONING & SHORT-TERM DRIVERS
Unemployment Claims released today: 236K vs previous 240K – slightly positive, but not strong enough to offset weak labor momentum.
Treasury yields remain high (10Y at 4.55%), suggesting that while inflation fears persist, risk appetite is fragile.
The NFP release will likely serve as the catalyst for gold's next directional move, especially as liquidity builds up in a narrowing technical structure.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 – EMA 13/34/89/200)
Price is consolidating within a sideways range between 3333–3380, forming a classic liquidity trap just below key resistance.
The 3352–3333 zone is a critical structural support. A break below this level opens the door for a dip toward the FVG liquidity zone around 3320–3318.
On the upside, 3388–3400 remains a rejection zone. A clean breakout could target 3409 and even Fibonacci extension resistance at 3435–3445.
🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
Resistance: 3388 – 3392 – 3400 – 3409
Support: 3355 – 3333 – 3320 – 3318
🧭 TRADING STRATEGY
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3320 – 3318
SL: 3314
TP: 3324 → 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → ???
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3408 – 3410
SL: 3414
TP: 3404 → 3400 → 3396 → 3390 → 3386 → 3380 → 3370
✅ FINAL THOUGHTS
Gold is currently at the eye of the storm, with both fundamental and technical indicators aligned for volatility. The coming NFP release could tilt the balance sharply.
Stay disciplined: trade key zones only, wait for confirmation, and prioritize risk management. In markets like these, precision beats prediction.
Xauusdanalysis
Gold on it’s target - Next Move BullishOur yesterday analysis went TRUE . As expected after reaching high gold came down for correction. As you all know today there is PMI news today, so market will come down and after that take upward momentum. So do wait for it and after that execute the trade.
Key point.
Support - 3348, 3335, 3329
Resistance - 3354, 3362, 3371
Any Query Reach Us or comment down
Rudra Vasaikar Wishes You A Great And Very Amazing Trading Life. Trade Safe, Trade Right.
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Gold Stalls Ahead of Key Trade TalksGold Stalls Ahead of Key Trade Talks – Will Price Explode Out of the 3345–3370 Range?
After Monday’s explosive rally, gold is currently consolidating within a tight price range. The market is at a critical juncture, awaiting high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China — an event that could serve as a major catalyst for the next directional move.
🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT
A major trade call between Trump and President Xi Jinping is on the horizon. This conversation could reset global trade expectations and potentially trigger large moves in risk assets.
Last week’s strong U.S. jobs data (NFP) pushed back expectations of Fed rate cuts. Treasury yields remain elevated, which is temporarily capping gold’s upside.
Market sentiment is neutral-to-cautious, with traders waiting for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown before committing capital to new positions.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 – EMA 13/34/89/200)
Gold appears to be in a wave 4 correction, consolidating after completing wave 3.
EMAs remain aligned to the upside (bullish), suggesting the broader trend still favors buyers.
Key range:
Above 3370 → breakout confirmation → momentum push toward 3400–3410
Below 3345 → breakdown → fast dip to 3310–3300 to complete wave 4 and initiate wave 5 upward
🧭 STRATEGIC ZONES
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3317 – 3315
Stop Loss: 3310
Take Profits:
3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3345 → 3350 → 3360
This zone aligns with a strong FVG + EMA89 support. A bullish reaction here could provide a high-probability entry for the next impulsive leg upward (wave 5).
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3372 – 3374
Stop Loss: 3378
Take Profits:
3368 → 3364 → 3360 → 3356 → 3350 → 3345
3370 is a critical resistance zone. Any rejection at this level with weak momentum or divergence could open a short-term bearish correction back toward 331x levels.
✅ SUMMARY
Gold is trapped in a decision zone between 3345–3370. The market awaits clarity from macro headlines and technical breakout signals. Until then, traders should watch key levels closely, stay patient, and position accordingly based on price action confirmation at strategic zones.
XAU/USD Bearish Rejection at Resistance – Potential Drop Ahead!XAU/USD Bearish Rejection at Resistance – Potential Drop Ahead! 💥
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Instrument: Gold vs US Dollar (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: Daily
Current Price: $3,363.26
Resistance Zone: $3,380 – $3,470
Support Zone: $2,970 – $3,100
🧠 Market Context:
Gold has recently approached a well-defined resistance zone near the $3,380–$3,470 range. Price action shows multiple rejection wicks and failed attempts to break above this level, indicating strong selling pressure from bears. 🐻
The current candlestick structure suggests the market is printing lower highs, which may indicate a transition from a consolidation phase into a potential bearish trend.
📉 Projection:
The chart projects a move down toward the support zone, around $2,970–$3,100, possibly due to:
Repeated rejections at the resistance zone 🔄
Lack of bullish momentum near highs ⚠️
Bearish engulfing or reversal candlestick formations 🔻
✅ Key Levels to Watch:
Level Type Price Zone Action
🔴 Resistance $3,380 – $3,470 Strong rejection expected
🟢 Support $2,970 – $3,100 Major demand zone; potential bounce
🧭 Trading Outlook:
⚠️ If price fails to break above the resistance zone, short opportunities may develop with a target near the support zone. A confirmed break and close below $3,300 would strengthen bearish sentiment.
📌 Bearish Bias Maintained Until Resistance Breaks
MARKET WAITS FOR TRUMP–XI TRADE CALL XAUUSD PLAN – JUNE 3XAUUSD PLAN – JUNE 3 | GOLD CORRECTS AFTER $100 SURGE | MARKET WAITS FOR TRUMP–XI TRADE CALL
After an explosive $100+ rally earlier this week, gold has entered a sharp correction phase, dropping $30 during the Asian session. This pullback comes as the market anticipates a high-level trade call between former President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which could reshape short-term expectations around US–China relations and global risk sentiment.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – POLITICS MEETS FINANCE:
The upcoming Trump–Xi call is expected to guide markets over the next few sessions and may impact trade risk positioning.
Investors have begun profit-taking following the aggressive rally, leading to temporary risk-off sentiment and cash-out flows.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, wave 3 (the strongest wave) may have completed, and price could now retrace into lower FVG zones to gather liquidity for the next upward move.
📈 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE (H1–H4 – EMA 13/34/89/200):
On higher timeframes (H4 and D1), gold maintains a strong bullish structure.
Price appears to have peaked near 3,402 – 3,409, and is now retracing toward the key FVG support zone between 3,320 – 3,310.
EMAs are beginning to compress after a strong expansion – suggesting the market may consolidate or correct further in the short term.
🧭 KEY PRICE LEVELS:
Support: 3,346 – 3,340 – 3,318 – 3,310 – 3,295
Resistance: 3,374 – 3,388 – 3,402 – 3,410
🔍 TRADE SETUPS:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,320 – 3,318
Stop Loss: 3,314
Take Profits:
3,324 – 3,328 – 3,332 – 3,336 – 3,340 – 3,344 – 3,350 – 3,360 – 3,374+
Buy on dips into the liquidity zone or after confirmation candles near EMA13–34 support. Ideal entry for positioning ahead of a potential wave 5 continuation.
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,388 – 3,390
Stop Loss: 3,394
Take Profits:
3,384 – 3,380 – 3,376 – 3,370 – 3,366 – 3,360 – 3,350
Sell only if there is a strong rejection or bearish divergence near the recent highs – this zone marks the top of wave 3 and potential exhaustion.
📌 SUMMARY:
Gold’s macro structure remains bullish, but short-term corrections are expected. Price may dip into FVG zones to absorb liquidity before launching the next move. Avoid FOMO and follow technical zones with disciplined SL.
XAU/USD Price Action Analysis – Bullish Breakout Setup XAU/USD Price Action Analysis – Bullish Breakout Setup 🚀
🔍 Chart Overview:
This chart illustrates the price movement of XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on a mid-term time frame, highlighting a potential bullish breakout scenario from a key resistance zone.
🟩 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 🛡️
➤ $3,140 – $3,200
This zone has acted as a strong support multiple times, preventing further declines and serving as a springboard for bullish moves.
Breakout Zone (Current Level): ⚡
➤ $3,340 – $3,390
Price is currently testing this crucial resistance-turned-potential-breakout zone. A successful close above this level could confirm bullish continuation.
First Target: 🎯
➤ $3,435.87
This intermediate resistance aligns with a previously tested high. It may act as the first barrier after the breakout.
Second Target: 🥇
➤ $3,502.13
This is the major resistance zone. If bulls maintain momentum, this area will likely be tested.
🧭 Market Structure & Bias:
Price is forming higher lows, signaling growing bullish strength.
The chart shows a bullish breakout of a sideways consolidation zone.
The upward arrows and curved projection suggest a potential pullback-retest scenario at the breakout level before rallying towards targets.
🧠 Trading Plan (Illustrated by Chart):
📈 Breakout Entry:
Wait for confirmation above $3,390 with strong bullish candles and volume.
🔁 Retest Opportunity:
If price pulls back to the breakout zone ($3,340 – $3,390), this may serve as a solid re-entry point for long positions.
🎯 Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,435
TP2: $3,502
🛑 Invalidation:
A strong close back below $3,320 may invalidate the bullish bias.
📌 Conclusion:
The chart indicates a bullish continuation setup for XAU/USD with clearly defined breakout, retest, and target zones. Traders should monitor price action closely around the breakout area for confirmation before entering long positions. Risk management remains key. 🧮⚖️
Gold (XAU/USD) – Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout Setup🧠 Chart Pattern Identified: Inverse Head & Shoulders
🟡 Left Shoulder ➡️ Formed at a local dip.
⚫ Head ⬇️ Deepest low around 3,274.103.
🟡 Right Shoulder ➡️ Bouncing near the same zone.
🔁 This is a classic bullish reversal pattern — a break above the neckline could signal a strong upside move.
📊 Key Levels & Zones
🔵 Support Zone:
🟦 Area: 3,274 – 3,294
✅ Strong bounce seen here (highlighted by the head and shoulders base)
🔵 Resistance Zone:
📏 Just below 3,305 (marked as neckline)
✋ Price must break this to confirm the reversal
🔵 Target Point:
🎯 3360 📈
📏 Based on the height from head to neckline
🔵 Stop Loss Zone:
❌ 3,274.526
🔻 Below the head for safe risk control
⚙️ Trading Setup Summary
🔹 📍 Entry Point:
📌 Around 3,294.449
🚪 Enter on breakout above neckline
🔹 🎯 Target Point:
🏁 3360
🔹 🛑 Stop Loss:
🚫 3,274.526
🔹 Risk-Reward Setup:
🔍 Targeting a move of ~65 points
⚖️ Risk of ~20 points → solid R/R ratio
📈 Indicator:
🧮 EMA 70 ➡️ 3,305.005
⏳ Price currently testing it — a break above EMA would boost bullish confirmation.
📅 Economic Events:
📆 Multiple event icons suggest upcoming news — expect volatility!
⚠️ Be cautious during these times.
✅ Final Thoughts:
📊 Pattern suggests a bullish breakout is near 🚀
🔒 Use stop-loss and enter after breakout to manage risk effectively
🎯 Keep an eye on volume during breakout — it confirms strength
BULLISH GAP CONFIRMS BREAKOUT STRUCTUREXAUUSD PLAN – JUNE 2 | BULLISH GAP CONFIRMS BREAKOUT STRUCTURE | GOLD REGAINS SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND
The new trading week kicks off with a strong bullish gap in gold, signaling renewed investor confidence in safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions. With the US dollar showing early signs of weakness and no clear direction from the Fed, gold is quickly regaining strength as a defensive play.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
US–China trade tensions and renewed Middle East geopolitical risks are pushing capital into gold as a risk hedge.
The US dollar is pulling back slightly, weighed by concerns over the upcoming labor data and persistent inflation.
Institutional portfolios are reportedly increasing exposure to gold as a hedge against macro instability.
➡️ In this context, gold has strong short-term upside potential, especially if price holds above the key breakout zone.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 – EMA 13/34/89/200):
Price has broken out above the descending trendline and EMA200, confirming bullish momentum.
All EMAs (13–34–89–200) are aligned upward, supporting continuation of the uptrend.
As long as gold holds above 3,309, bulls will likely target previous highs near 3,348 and 3,361.
🔍 TRADE PLAN – JUNE 2:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,295 – 3,293
Stop Loss: 3,289
Take Profit Targets:
3,300 – 3,304 – 3,308 – 3,312 – 3,316 – 3,320
Ideal scenario: wait for a retest of the breakout zone or EMA support (13/34) for a low-risk long entry.
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,347 – 3,349
Stop Loss: 3,353
Take Profit Targets:
3,343 – 3,340 – 3,336 – 3,332 – 3,328 – 3,324 – 3,320
Only consider SELL if there's a strong rejection or bearish divergence at the highs.
📌 SUMMARY:
The bullish gap at the start of the week is a strong signal of trend continuation. Priority should be given to long setups if the price structure stays above key EMAs. Watch for potential fakeouts during NY session or Fed-related headlines. Stick to tight risk management.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan | June 2, 2025
🌀 Current Wave Structure
On the H1 timeframe, wave 2 (black) appears to have completed as a zigzag pattern, with price reacting strongly after touching the 3272 level — signaling that the abc corrective wave (green) may be finished.
Zooming into the M10 timeframe, the recent rally shows a 5-wave leading diagonal, indicating that wave 1 (red) is complete.
Currently, price is in the pullback phase of wave 2 (red).
📍 The ideal correction zone for wave 2 (red) is around 3281, which is our key area to look for Buy opportunities.
However, if price breaks below 3272, this wave count becomes invalid, and we’ll wait for a new setup aligned with deeper correction.
🔋 Momentum Outlook
• D1: Momentum is preparing to turn bullish ⇒ supports the start of wave 3 (black) and a bullish outlook for the week
• H4: Momentum is bottoming and about to reverse ⇒ supports wave 3 (red) forming in upcoming sessions
• H1: Currently declining ⇒ expect early-session pullback. Watch for bullish reversal signals as long as 3272 holds for potential entries
✅ Trade Setup
🎯 BUY ZONE: 3282 – 3279
🛑 Stop Loss: 3272
🎯 Take Profits:
• TP1: 3308
• TP2: 3324
• TP3: 3346
⏳ Note: Price action around the 3272–3281 zone will be key to confirming whether wave 2 (red) is complete.
If confirmed, wave 3 could begin with strong momentum — especially after breaking above 3296.
GOLD - RETESTING SUPPORT BEFORE THE NEXT CLIMBSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3327
Gold continues to strengthen, supported by a complex and evolving fundamental landscape.
A false breakdown below the 3285 support level has facilitated a move to a new local high at 3365
Despite a weaker US dollar, gold experienced a modest pullback from the 3365 high amid subdued market activity caused by US market holiday. Investor sentiment reflects profit-taking ahead of key US inflation data releases. Additional downward pressure is linked to optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement between the United States, Europe and Japan. Nonetheless, the decline in gold prices remains limited, as safe-haven demand persists in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions, US fiscal concerns, and instability in the Middle East.
Support levels: 3321, 3308, 3300
Resistance levels: 3363
From a technical perspective, gold appears to be executing a false breakout above consolidation resistance and is entering a corrective phase. During this correction, the price may target liquidity zones in the 3320-3303 range before resuming its upward trajectory.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Major Levels, Market Structure, and 🔍 XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Major Levels, Market Structure, and Trade Ideas
In this detailed analysis of XAU/USD, we highlight key supply and demand zones, dynamic trendlines, and the interplay of structural shifts to help traders navigate the current price action effectively.
🔴 Key Supply Zone (Week & Day A+ Selling Area)
Location: Above 3,320- 3,330
Significance: This red zone has historically acted as a strong resistance area. Price has failed multiple times to break above it convincingly, suggesting institutional selling pressure.
Implication: Any revisit to this zone could trigger bearish rejection, making it a key level for short setups.
🟢 Major Demand Zone (Week & Day A+ Buying Area)
Location: 3,230–3,260 region
Significance: This green zone has consistently provided support for price, as shown by multiple bounces from it. It suggests strong buying interest from institutions or large market participants.
Implication: Traders can watch for bullish price action in this area to confirm potential long opportunities.
📈 Dynamic Trendlines
🔵 4H Down-to-Up Trend Line:
This ascending trendline, drawn from major swing lows, suggests that the broader 4H market structure remains bullish.
Use: Acts as dynamic support for possible bounces.
🔴 4H Up-to-Down Trend Line:
This descending trendline captures the bearish structure in the 4H timeframe, connecting the lower highs and indicating ongoing selling pressure.
Use: Functions as a dynamic resistance area.
✅ 15M Change of Character (CHoCH)
This micro timeframe level marks a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish, providing early confirmation for potential reversals or continuation plays.
Use: Intraday traders can utilize this for short-term entries in line with the broader bias.
🔻 Monthly Low Level
Location: Around 3,120
Significance: This level marks the lowest point in the recent monthly cycle and serves as a crucial support area for the broader trend.
Implication: A break below this level would suggest further downside potential.
💡 Trade Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Scenario
If price retests the Week & Day A+ Buying Area (3,240–3,260) and forms bullish confirmation (like a bullish engulfing candle or 15M CHoCH shift), a long trade could be initiated.
Potential Targets:
4H descending trendline near 3,300
Week & Day A+ Selling Area above 3,320
2️⃣ Bearish Scenario
If price reaches the 4H descending trendline or the selling zone above 3,320 and forms bearish rejection, shorts can be considered.
A break below the 4H ascending trendline and the demand zone would open the door for deeper downside, with the ultimate target at the Month Low near 3,120.
📝 Conclusion
XAU/USD is consolidating within a crucial range, balancing supply and demand forces. The dual-trendline structure signals a potential breakout in the coming sessions. Short-term traders can leverage the 15M CHoCH for early entries, while swing traders should focus on the interplay between the higher timeframe zones and trendlines.
📌 Reminder: Always wait for confirmation before entering trades and manage risk according to your trading plan.
🔔 Follow for updates! Let me know if you have any questions or want to discuss your own analysis. Happy trading! 🚀✨
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD H1 30/05/2025
🔍 Wave Structure Update
As of now, price has broken above the X wave high and is undergoing a retracement. This is a positive signal, suggesting that Wave 1 (black) of the larger green impulsive wave may have completed. Currently, price is likely in Wave 2 (black) – offering a good opportunity to position for the upcoming Wave iii (green).
Within Wave 2, we expect classic corrective structures such as zigzag or flat to form. Based on current price action, a short-term bounce followed by another leg down is anticipated to complete the corrective phase.
🎯 Potential Wave 2 Target Zones
• Target 1: 3290
• Target 2: 3272
❗ If price drops further to 3245, the assumption that Wave 2 has ended may be invalid. In that case, the broader correction could continue toward 3215 (Wave Y target).
📈 Momentum Outlook
D1 Chart: Momentum shows signs of reversal to the upside – supporting a bullish bias for the coming week.
H4 Chart: Momentum is weakening, suggesting price may move sideways or pull back today as part of Wave 2 development.
H1 Chart: Currently oversold, indicating a likely short-term bounce or sideways movement to maintain this oversold condition until H4 also reaches oversold.
🧭 Trading Plan
🔹 Scalp Buy
• Entry: 3291 – 3289
• SL: 3286
• TP1: 3306
• TP2: 3324
• TP3: 3346
🔹 Main Buy Zone
• Entry: 3272 – 3269
• SL: 3262
• TP1: 3290
• TP2: 3324
• TP3: 3373
XAUUSD PLAN END-OF-MONTH CASHOUT OR TREND REVERSAL? XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 30 | GOLD DROPS SHARPLY IN ASIAN SESSION | END-OF-MONTH CASHOUT OR TREND REVERSAL?
Gold surprised the market this morning with a sharp drop of nearly $30/oz, despite closing yesterday with a strong bullish daily candle. Profit-taking pressure near month-end and uncertainty surrounding US–China trade negotiations have returned gold to a bearish technical structure in the short term.
🌍 MACRO OVERVIEW:
US–China trade talks show no clear progress, with both sides signaling a cautious and non-committal stance.
Hedge funds and large players may be exiting ahead of monthly/weekly candle closes, causing increased volatility.
Meanwhile, investors are waiting for key US PCE inflation data and more Fed speeches, keeping risk sentiment fragile.
➡️ The market remains technically weak and highly reactive. Price is vulnerable to quick liquidity sweeps and false breakouts — best to stay reactive and trade confirmed zones.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 – EMA 13/34/89/200):
Gold has broken below EMA89 and is now trading beneath all major EMAs, indicating a strong short-term downtrend.
The resistance zone at 3,322–3,324 aligns with the EMA200 and a descending trendline, making it a prime area for short entries on rejection.
Key support sits at 3,266–3,264. A break below could send price to test deeper levels at 3,235 or even 3,210, following the broader descending channel.
The 3,274–3,276 zone (EMA13 crossing below EMA34) may offer minor reactions for scalpers in the London session.
🔍 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,266 – 3,264
Stop Loss: 3,260
Take Profits:
3,270 – 3,274 – 3,278 – 3,282 – 3,286 – 3,290 – 3,300
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,322 – 3,324
Stop Loss: 3,328
Take Profits:
3,318 – 3,314 – 3,310 – 3,306 – 3,300 – 3,295 – 3,290 – 3,280
🎯 INTRADAY SCALPING IDEAS:
BUY SCALP: 3,274 – 3,276 | SL: 3,270 | TP: 1R (50 pips max)
SELL SCALP: 3,302 – 3,304 and 3,310 zone | SL: 50–60 pips | Flexible TP
📌 SUMMARY:
The current momentum is bearish. Focus on short setups unless price clearly reclaims key EMAs. Scalping opportunities exist around reaction zones. With month-end volatility at play, avoid FOMO and stick to strict SL discipline.
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XAUUSD (Gold) Analysis – Daily & Intraday OutlookOn the daily timeframe, we are observing a bearish price action structure. If the market continues to move lower, potential downside targets could range between 3288 to 3259.
However, on the 1-hour timeframe, post the Asian session liquidity hunt, the market has started to show signs of selling pressure. If the market retraces during the London session, it could present a high-probability sell opportunity on the lower timeframes, potentially offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
That being said, as we all know, trading is a game of probabilities. With every opportunity comes risk, and no trading setup or strategy can guarantee 100% success. This analysis is purely for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice.
Disclaimer :
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author is not liable for any losses incurred from trading or investing based on this analysis.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD H1 Timeframe 29/05/2025🔍 Current Wave Structure
Price is currently correcting within a WXY structure, also known as a double zigzag. At the moment, the market is progressing through wave Y, with two potential targets:
🎯 Target 1: 3245 – already reached, and price has bounced sharply from this zone.
🎯 Target 2: 3215 – a deeper target, requiring further confirmation from price action and real-time momentum.
📈 If wave Y has already ended at 3245, the market may now be in wave 1 of a new bullish cycle. Once wave 1 completes, we’ll look for wave 2, which typically offers a prime entry point for wave 3.
👉 Wave 2 often forms as a zigzag or flat correction. Using Fibonacci confluence and liquidity zones, the potential wave 2 pullback area is 3265 – 3262.
⚡️ Momentum Outlook
🕯 D1: Momentum is entering oversold territory → high probability of bullish reversal today or tomorrow.
🕯 H4: Reversal setup is forming; current H4 candle closes in just over an hour → watch for confirmation.
🕯 H1: Momentum is rising. Wait for a pullback in H1, followed by renewed bullish momentum without breaking below 3245 — that’s likely the end of wave 2 and the entry point for wave 3.
📌 Important Note:
If H4 momentum reverses downward and price fails to break above 3324, it could signal a continuation of the broader downtrend, with 3215 remaining as the next wave Y target.
🛒 Trade Setu p
BUY ZONE: 3265 – 3262
Stop Loss: 3255
Take Profits:
• TP1: 3290
• TP2: 3324
• TP3: 3346
❗️ If price breaks below 3245, it would confirm that wave Y is still in progress. In that case, monitor the 3215 zone for a new buying opportunity.
GOLD RETESTING KEY ZONES AHEAD OF INFLATION DATA XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 29 | GOLD RETESTING KEY ZONES AHEAD OF INFLATION DATA | HOLDING OR BREAKING?
After yesterday’s sharp decline, GOLD is showing signs of stabilization around the 3,270 region. This appears to be a consolidation phase before the market reacts to key macro events — particularly the upcoming Core PCE inflation report and a string of Fed speeches this week.
🌍 MACRO LANDSCAPE:
US 10-year yields are holding steady near 4.5%, continuing to pressure gold in the short term.
Fed officials remain cautious about rate cuts, pushing back against dovish expectations.
However, concerns over structural fiscal pressure (including Fed losses and budget cuts) support the long-term bullish case for gold.
➡️ In the short term, the market remains range-bound, and tactical entries near key zones offer the best opportunities.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
Gold is consolidating below a major resistance zone at 3,308–3,310, which aligns with the descending trendline and 200 EMA.
Fibonacci retracement zones (0.5–0.618) also highlight strong resistance around 3,297–3,309.
On the downside, support at 3,263 is key; a break below may expose the broader demand zone near 3,246.
🔍 TRADE SETUPS – MAY 29:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,247 – 3,245
Stop Loss: 3,241
Take Profit Targets:
3,251 – 3,255 – 3,260 – 3,264 – 3,270 – 3,275 – 3,280
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,263 – 3,261
Stop Loss: 3,257
Take Profit Targets:
3,266 – 3,270 – 3,275 – 3,280 – 3,290 – 3,300
🔻 SELL SCALP: 3,294 – 3,296
Stop Loss: 3,300
Take Profit Targets:
3,290 – 3,286 – 3,282 – 3,278 – 3,274 – 3,270 – 3,260
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,308 – 3,310
Stop Loss: 3,314
Take Profit Targets:
3,304 – 3,300 – 3,296 – 3,292 – 3,288 – 3,280
📌 STRATEGY TIP:
Price is range-bound ahead of key data. Avoid entering mid-range. Wait for price to reach the edges (BUY/SELL zones) and look for clear rejection or confirmation candles. Stick to strict risk management.
XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 28 |WATCHING FOMC + EU TRADE TENSIONS XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 28 | GOLD REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE | WATCHING FOMC + EU TRADE TENSIONS
Gold staged a mild technical recovery after last week’s heavy sell-off of nearly $100. While the bounce offers short-term opportunities, overall structure remains under bearish pressure unless bulls can reclaim the upper distribution zone.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – TRADE POLICY & MONETARY UNCERTAINTY:
Trump has delayed the 50% tariff on EU goods until July, calling recent trade talks “positive.”
In response, US 10-year yields spiked back above 4.55%, signaling market expectations for prolonged high interest rates.
Meanwhile, the Fed has announced a 10% workforce cut due to ongoing operational losses from interest payments — a rare move that underscores deeper fiscal constraints.
➡️ With mixed risk sentiment and no clear policy direction, Gold remains a safe-haven focus — but vulnerable in the short-term if yields and the dollar continue to rise.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
Gold is currently trading below the 3,335–3,346 resistance zone, which has repeatedly rejected bullish attempts.
If price fails to reclaim this zone, we could see renewed bearish momentum toward the lower FVG support.
The Fair Value Gap near 3,248 remains a major zone of interest if sellers regain control.
🔍 TRADE PLAN – UPDATED LEVELS:
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,344 – 3,346
Stop Loss: 3,350
Take Profit: 3,340 – 3,336 – 3,332 – 3,328 – 3,324 – 3,320
🔻 SELL SCALP: 3,326 – 3,328
Stop Loss: 3,332
Take Profit: 3,322 – 3,318 – 3,314 – 3,310 – 3,305 – 3,300
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,278 – 3,276
Stop Loss: 3,272
Take Profit: 3,282 – 3,286 – 3,290 – 3,294 – 3,298 – 3,302 – 3,310
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,246 – 3,244
Stop Loss: 3,240
Take Profit: 3,250 – 3,254 – 3,258 – 3,262 – 3,266 – 3,270 – 3,280
📌 STRATEGY TIP:
Avoid mid-range entries. Let price come to your zones. Prioritize confirmed reactions, especially near structural levels like 3,335 and 3,248.
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Observation (XAUUSD):
If Gold (XAUUSD) breaks below the 3279.05 level on the 1-hour time frame, there is a possibility of a move towards the weekly support around the 3241 level. This is purely a technical observation based on current price action and support levels.
Disclaimer:
This is not a trade setup or a trading signal. The content shared is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
GOLD TRADING INSIDE COMPRESSION ZONE WAITING FOR A CLEAR BREAK XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 27 | GOLD TRADING INSIDE A COMPRESSION ZONE – WAITING FOR A CLEAR BREAKOUT
Gold continues to consolidate below the 3,364 resistance zone after a rejection late last week. The market is currently trading within a compression range, preparing for a breakout – but direction still depends heavily on macro triggers and technical structure.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
U.S. 10-year yields remain above 4.5%, keeping the dollar stable and applying short-term pressure on precious metals.
The Fed’s cost-cutting moves and operational losses are raising deeper concerns about long-term monetary stability.
Risk sentiment is mixed, and institutional money continues to flow cautiously into gold as a long-term value hedge, especially with equities showing signs of exhaustion.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
Price failed to break through the 3,345–3,364 resistance zone, triggering a pullback toward the mid-range.
Key support around 3,311 is now being tested – a decisive level that could determine whether bulls can regain momentum or bears take control.
If price breaks below 3,311, we could see a deeper dip toward the 3,298–3,288 demand zone, which may offer a better re-entry for buyers.
On the upside, a confirmed break above 3,364 could open the door for a move into the Fair Value Gap toward 3,407.
🔹 TRADE SETUPS:
🔵 BUY SCALP
Entry: 3,314 – 3,312
Stop Loss: 3,308
Take Profit Targets:
3,318 – 3,322 – 3,326 – 3,330 – 3,340 – 3,350
🔵 BUY ZONE
Entry: 3,298 – 3,296
Stop Loss: 3,292
Take Profit Targets:
3,302 – 3,306 – 3,310 – 3,314 – 3,320 – 3,330
🔻 SELL SCALP
Entry: 3,346 – 3,348
Stop Loss: 3,350
Take Profit Targets:
3,342 – 3,338 – 3,334 – 3,330 – 3,320 – 3,310
🔻 SELL ZONE
Entry: 3,364 – 3,366
Stop Loss: 3,370
Take Profit Targets:
3,360 – 3,356 – 3,352 – 3,348 – 3,344 – 3,340 – 3,330
📌 Note:
Price is trading in the mid-range of a larger structure. Best opportunities remain near the edges of support/resistance with confirmation. Avoid overtrading in the middle zone. Let the market come to your areas of value.
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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan – 27th May 2025
📊 Wave Structure – XAUUSD – H1 Timeframe
Price is likely in a corrective phase — wave iv (orange) — after completing five internal green waves within wave iii.
During this correction, we’ve seen an abc zigzag form, followed by an unclear upward bounce. This gives rise to two key scenarios:
🔸 Scenario 1: Wave iv is complete
The abc pattern is finished, and price appears to be forming an initial triangle structure. We could currently be in wave 2.
👉 A breakout and H1 candle close above 3343 would confirm the start of a new uptrend. In this case, prefer buying on dips.
🔸 Scenario 2: Zigzag correction is still ongoing
Wave X seems complete, and price may now be developing wave Y — either as another abc or triangle.
👉 This scenario gets confirmed if price breaks below the wave c (green) low at 3324.
🎯 Wave Y downside targets (based on Fibonacci + Volume Profile):
• Target 1: 3317
• Target 2: 3290
🔍 Momentum Analysis
D1 Momentum has already confirmed bearish → Downside pressure likely to persist through the week.
H4 Momentum is currently rising → Price could see a short-term rally or sideways action today.
H1 Momentum is nearing oversold → We wait for it to flip to overbought. If price fails to break 3349, there may be room for a scalp sell.
However, if 3349 is broken, wave X could extend further — or it might mark the start of a new bullish leg. We’ll reassess accordingly.
📌 Trade Plan
Buy Zone: 3317 – 3314
Stop Loss: 3307
Take Profit 1: 3334
Take Profit 2: 3373
✅ Only execute if H1 momentum shifts bullish.
❗ If this zone breaks, next buy opportunity lies around 3290.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – Plan for May 27, 2025📊 Price is likely in the middle of a wave iv (orange) correction, following the completion of a 5-wave structure (green) that formed wave iii.
During this correction, an ABC zigzag pattern has already formed. The recent upward move remains unclear, which opens up two possible scenarios:
🔸 Scenario 1 – Wave iv is completed
The ABC structure looks complete. Price appears to be forming a leading diagonal, currently in wave 2.
A confirmed breakout above 3343 with a candle close would validate a new bullish trend → favoring Buy entries in line with the larger trend.
🔸 Scenario 2 – Ongoing zigzag correction (double structure)
Wave X has completed, and price may now be developing wave Y (either an ABC or triangle pattern).
This scenario is confirmed if price breaks below wave c (green) at 3324.
🎯 Wave Y Target Zones (based on Fibonacci + Volume Profile):
• Target 1: 3317
• Target 2: 3290
🔍 Momentum Outlook:
• Daily (D1): Bearish momentum confirmed → downside likely to dominate into the end of the week
• H4: Momentum rising → short-term bounce or consolidation expected today
• H1: Near oversold → watch for bullish reversal.
If price fails to break above 3349, scalp shorts may be considered.
However, a break above 3349 could mean wave X continues as an extended ABC, or a new bullish trend has started — to be updated accordingly.
📌 Trading Plan:
Buy Zone: 3317 – 3314
Stop Loss: 3307
Take Profit 1: 3334
Take Profit 2: 3373
✅ Only enter on H1 bullish momentum reversal
❗ If this zone fails, watch for the next Buy opportunity near 3290
Will Gold Break Through 3366 or Pull Back Before NFP Week?XAUUSD PLAN – 26/05 | Will Gold Break Through 3366 or Pull Back Before NFP Week?
Gold is currently trading near a major resistance zone after a sharp rebound last week. With Fed policies still hawkish and trade tensions between the US and EU on hold, the market is entering a wait-and-see phase — ideal for structured trades.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
Trump Delays 50% Tariffs on EU Until July 9: This cooled market tension temporarily but doesn’t eliminate the risk long term.
US 10-Year Yields Surge Back Above 4.55% right after, showing bond markets are still pricing in tighter conditions.
The Fed Faces Strategic Losses: As rate hikes increase reserve interest payments, the Fed is trimming 10% of its workforce — a rare signal of operational pressure.
➡️ Investors should brace for volatility ahead of NFP and watch closely for central bank reactions.
🔍 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – H1/H4 View:
Gold is respecting a rising channel while consolidating near the 3360–3366 region — a key sell zone with potential for reversal.
The chart also shows clear Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) above and below current price, signaling pending liquidity sweeps.
🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
🔺 Resistance Zones:
3364 – 3366 → Local top and key reversal zone
3406 – 3408 → FVG upper bound, potential blow-off target if breakout occurs
🔻 Support Zones:
3324 – 3326 → 20 EMA retest, potential bullish bounce
3310 – 3308 → Trendline + EMA89 confluence
3304 → Break below this area could invalidate short-term bull bias
🎯 TRADE SETUPS
🟢 BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3326 – 3324
Stop-Loss: 3320
Take-Profit: 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3342 → 3346 → 3350
🟢 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3310 – 3308
Stop-Loss: 3304
Take-Profit: 3314 → 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340
🔴 SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3364 – 3366
Stop-Loss: 3370
Take-Profit: 3360 → 3356 → 3352 → 3348 → 3344 → 3340
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3406 – 3408
Stop-Loss: 3412
Take-Profit: 3400 → 3396 → 3392 → 3388 → 3385 → 3380
⚠️ STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION:
If price breaks above 3366 with momentum, expect a run to 3408 and possibly 3450.
If price rejects 3366 or fails to hold above 3320, scalpers can look for quick shorts with tight stops.
📌 Avoid chasing price in the middle of the range. Wait for strong rejection or breakout confirmation to enter.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Chart Overview🔍 Current Market Position
Price: $3,358.125
Currently near resistance zone ($3,420–$3,470)
Historical reaction in this zone shows multiple rejections 🛑
📌 Key Levels
🔺 Resistance Point: ~$3,420–$3,470
Rejected here 3 times ➡️ strong supply zone
🔻 Support Level: ~$3,150
Past price bounced here multiple times 🟠
💪 Strong Support: ~$2,950
Major bounce seen in early May 👊
🧭 Pattern Outlook
Repeated resistance test 🔁 ➡️ potential double/triple top
📉 Blue arrow suggests bearish projection towards $3,050–$2,950
If support at $3,150 fails 🔓, expect deeper drop to strong support
🔮 Forecast
🔽 Bearish Bias
High chance of reversal from resistance
Target: $3,050 and possibly $2,950 🎯
⚠️ Watch for
Price Action at Resistance: Rejection = short opportunity 🔧
Break of $3,150 Support: May accelerate bearish move 🧨
📌 Summary:
Market shows clear resistance rejection history. If it plays out again, we may see a strong drop toward lower support zones. Ideal for short setups 📉💼