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Xauusdanalysis

Gold Rejected at Highs as Bearish Harmonic Triggers🟡 Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Rejected at Highs as Bearish Harmonic Triggers 📉 Gold (Daily) has entered a major supply zone and witnessed a sharp rejection. A bearish harmonic pattern has completed near the highs, followed by aggressive selling pressure. Momentum is turning down and volatility is expanding — classic signals of a near-term top. 👉 Risk now favours a pullback or consolidation rather than fresh long positions at current levels 🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) – Medium-Term View Gold has completed a bearish harmonic structure and faced strong rejection near 4550–4560, a key supply area. The sharp decline from highs reflects rally exhaustion and indicates a shift toward consolidation or correction. ➡️ As long as prices remain below 4560, upside is likely to stay capped. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 4420 → 4550 Support: 4250 → 4000 🔮 Medium-Term Outlook Base Case: Range-bound to corrective move between 4250–4550 Bearish Risk: A breakdown below 4245 opens downside toward 4100–4000 Bullish Scenario: Fresh upside only on a sustained breakout above 4560 🧠 Final Takeaway Gold requires fresh macro triggers or sustained dollar weakness to resume its uptrend. Until then, expect time correction, higher volatility, and selective trading opportunities — not a one-way rally.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mr_Huntking
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 31/12/2025 Today is the final trading plan of 2025. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who has accompanied and supported me throughout this year. The market does not always move as we expect, but your continuous support—especially your honest feedback—has helped me improve and stay committed to this work. I wish all of you a successful, disciplined, and profitable year ahead in 2026. 1. Momentum Daily (D1) Daily momentum is currently declining. Including today’s candle, we can count approximately three consecutive bearish D1 candles. This suggests that D1 momentum is approaching the oversold zone, with a high probability of 1–2 more bearish daily candles before momentum reaches oversold and a reaction bounce appears. H4 H4 momentum remains bearish but is starting to compress. We need to wait for the current H4 candle to close for confirmation. There is still a high probability that price will continue lower to push H4 momentum into the oversold zone. H1 H1 momentum is preparing to turn bearish again, indicating that the short-term downside move is likely to continue. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily Structure (D1) On the Daily timeframe, price is still moving within purple wave Y of the Flat W–X–Y corrective structure. The current decline has already lasted around three D1 candles. Combined with D1 momentum approaching oversold, I expect this decline to extend for another 1–2 daily candles, followed by a corrective rebound driven by D1 momentum. The target zone for the completion of wave Y remains unchanged. H4 Structure On H4, price corrections are relatively shallow and the market is showing signs of continuation to the downside. Therefore, the primary scenario remains a 5-wave bearish structure. We will monitor whether H4 momentum moves into oversold or shows a clear reversal signal to confirm this count. H1 Structure On H1, the current decline is labeled as a 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5). H1 momentum has turned bearish again, while price has created a liquidity zone with a key boundary at 4372. As long as price remains below 4372, I expect the decline to continue toward 4266, which is the projected completion level of wave 5. In addition, there is a major liquidity support zone between 4317 – 4348 below current price. A daily or H1 close below 4317 would further strengthen the bearish wave count. 3. Primary Trading Scenario Once the decline completes near 4266, this area is expected to mark the completion of red wave 5. From this zone, we can look for buy opportunities, as it also aligns with a major high-to-low liquidity boundary. 4. Important Risk Note Although H4 momentum is currently compressing and still requires confirmation, this is an early warning signal. If an H4 candle closes bullish and confirms a momentum reversal, the current upward move would likely form a 3-wave corrective structure, which would invalidate the red 1–2–3–4–5 bearish count. In that case, the entire decline could be either a 3-wave or 5-wave structure on a higher timeframe, and I will update the wave count accordingly once confirmation appears. 5. Trading Plan (Reference) Buy Zone: 4227 – 4225 Stop Loss: 4207 TP1: 4317 TP2: 4372 TP3: 4471
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD liquidity grab done, awaiting next move.Market Context (Intraday) Gold has just completed a sharp sell-off, breaking below the previous structure and sweeping sell-side liquidity. The strong bearish displacement suggests a stop-hunt and rebalancing phase, not a clean trend continuation yet. Current price action shows consolidation after liquidity absorption. Technical Structure Market is trading below the descending trendline, keeping short-term pressure bearish. A clear liquidity sweep occurred below 4,321, followed by a weak rebound. Price is now reacting inside a key rebalancing zone, where both buyers and sellers may reposition. Key Levels to Watch Sell Reaction Zone: 4,455 – 4,460 → Strong supply + trendline resistance. Expect rejection if price rallies here. Mid Resistance / Decision Zone: 4,390 – 4,395 → Intraday flip zone. Failure here keeps bearish bias intact. Buy Zone (Liquidity): 4,245 – 4,255 → Major demand + sell-side liquidity. Area to watch for potential bullish reaction. Scenarios Bearish Scenario: If price fails below 4,390, expect continuation toward 4,320 → 4,250 to complete liquidity collection. Bullish Recovery Scenario: A strong reaction from 4,245–4,255 followed by acceptance above 4,395 could open a recovery move toward 4,455+. Macro Notes With year-end positioning and lower liquidity conditions, price is likely to be driven by liquidity hunts rather than clean trends. Avoid chasing moves; focus on reactions at key zones. Bias Neutral to bearish intraday, until price shows a clear acceptance above resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Gold (XAU/USD) — Bullish Continuation Setup on 1H📊 Technical Analysis 1. Overall Trend The market remains in an uptrend, confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. A trend line drawn from lower left is supporting price structure nicely. Price is above both the 9 EMA and 15 EMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. 2. Key Levels Resistance Zones Immediate resistance (red box): Currently challenging this level — price is struggling to break above. Larger supply area above: A wider grey zone above the immediate resistance — likely the next target once cleared. Major target: ~4580 — marked as the next significant upside. Support Zones Minor support (thin horizontal): Around ~4510, could act as intraday support. Strong demand zone: Around ~4475–4490 — significant buyers previously entered here. Trend line support beneath the candles — dynamic support reinforcing bullish bias. 3. Price Action & Structure Recent Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside indicates buyers are in control. After the BOS, price retraced slightly then resumed higher, a sign of healthy bullish behavior. Current consolidation at resistance suggests a potential shakeout / liquidity hunt before continuation. 4. Possible Scenarios (as annotated) Bullish Scenario (favored): Price consolidates slightly, retests support ~4510–trendline zone, Then breaks above the red resistance box, Targets the larger grey supply zone and then ~4580+. Alternative Short Pullback: Minor pullback into support, Then bounce for continuation. The dotted projected line on your chart reflects this potential pullback → rally sequence. 📉 Volume Context Buying volume tends to increase on bullish moves, Showing participation from demand zones — supportive of upside continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KingProTrader
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Week 1, January 2026 1. Momentum Weekly timeframe (W1): Observing the weekly momentum, we can see that momentum is rolling over within the overbought zone. This suggests a high probability that weekly momentum may reverse next week, or at least that a meaningful corrective move could take place. Daily timeframe (D1): Daily momentum is also showing signs of exhaustion and compression, indicating that short- to medium-term reversal risk is increasing. The probability of a corrective move during the coming week is relatively high. H4 timeframe: H4 momentum is currently declining, although signs of compression are emerging. We need to wait for the Monday session to confirm whether this is merely a short-term pullback or the beginning of a clearer bearish move. 2. Elliott Wave Structure – Weekly (W1) On the weekly chart, price has just printed a new high following a strong bullish candle last week. Prior to that, the market had formed a series of small-bodied candles, followed by a significantly larger candle, while volume did not expand accordingly. This behavior serves as a bull-trap warning signal, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually weakening. In addition, the flat corrective structure has not been invalidated. When combined with the fact that weekly momentum is preparing to reverse, the probability that price is forming a top and completing Wave X during the coming week is very high. Since Wave X has exceeded the low of Wave W, the first target for Wave Y is expected to be around 4072, equivalent to the length of Wave W. 3. Elliott Wave Structure – Daily (D1) Within the purple Wave X, price is forming a red ABC corrective structure. Notably, Wave C (red) contains an internal 5-wave impulsive structure (blue). If this 5-wave structure is fully confirmed, the next scenario is likely to be a sharp and steep decline, occurring immediately after the extended Wave 5 is completed. 4. Elliott Wave Structure – H4 On the H4 timeframe, within the blue Wave 5, we can observe a 5-wave structure labeled in red. Looking deeper, within red Wave 5, a black 5-wave structure is currently developing, and price is now in black Wave 5. Key characteristics of this black Wave 5 include: - Price has already reached its projected target - Waves are beginning to overlap Therefore, the preferred scenario at this stage is that black Wave 5 is likely forming an Ending Diagonal. Confirmation / Invalidation conditions: - Price must not break above the 4594 level. → A breakout above this zone would invalidate the Ending Diagonal scenario. - Price needs to decline strongly and close below 4471, which is a major liquidity support zone. → If this level is broken, the next major liquidity zone lies around 4348. 5. Market Condition Notice With only a few days left before the year-end, market liquidity remains very low. Under these conditions: - Price action often becomes choppy and directionless - False breakouts and stop hunts on both sides are more likely to occur For this reason, I recommend staying on the sidelines and limiting trading activity, especially for medium-term positions. Capital preservation should remain the top priority in this low-liquidity, high-risk environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
GolD Market Update | XAU/USDGold Market Update | XAU/USD Gold prices eased slightly to around $4,500 per ounce, retreating from record highs but remaining strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further US interest rate cuts. Optimism around Russia–Ukraine peace talks improved after US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations have made significant progress, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy noting that nearly 90% of the framework is agreed and security guarantees are in place. However, unresolved issues—particularly territorial control of the Donbas region—continue to limit downside pressure on gold. Additional support comes from persistent Middle East tensions and rising US–Venezuela frictions, keeping safe-haven demand elevated. Investors are now focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes for guidance on the Fed’s policy outlook, with markets currently pricing in two rate cuts next year. On a broader scale, gold is up over 70% year-to-date, on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, driven by aggressive central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tradewith_ritik
XAUUSD – Bullish structure intact, Buy pullbackGold remains within a mid-term ascending channel. After a strong bullish impulse, the price is currently in a technical rebalancing phase, not a trend reversal. The recent pullback is viewed as liquidity absorption, preparing for the next expansion. Structure & Order Flow (MMF / SMC) Overall market structure stays Higher High – Higher Low. Price has reacted clearly from the lower Demand / Order Block, confirming buyer presence. Buy-side liquidity remains above, acting as the next upside magnet. Key Technical Levels Primary BUY Zone: 4,485 – 4,490 Secondary BUY Zone: 4,480 – 4,483 (OB + trendline confluence) Resistance / Target 1: 4,520 Target 2 (Liquidity Zone): 4,560 – 4,590 Trading Scenarios Primary Scenario: Wait for the price to pull back into BUY zones, look for reaction / minor BOS, then follow the bullish trend. Alternative Scenario: If the price holds above 4,500 and breaks strongly above 4,520, wait for a retest to continue BUY positions. Invalidation: A clear H1 close below 4,480 invalidates the bullish setup and requires reassessment. Summary The dominant bias remains bullish continuation. Best strategy is to buy on pullbacks, stay patient, and avoid chasing price at premium levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Chumtrades XAUUSD Any pullback is an opportunity to buy higher.This morning’s move was a corrective sell-off, best understood as profit-taking from BUY-side, not a trend reversal. The overall structure remains within a rising trend channel, with no sign of a structural break → BUY bias stays intact, looking to buy pullbacks in line with the trend. 🟢 Key Support Zones 447x: near-term support (4476 – 4472 – 4470) 4450 – 4455 4430 – 4435 🔴 Key Resistance Zones 4548 – 4550 4560 – 4565 4599 – 4600 (upper resistance) 📌 Additional Note 453x is a mid-zone to watch closely for price reaction. 📊 Intraday Expectation Price is expected to range sideways on the H2 timeframe Range high: 4549 Range low: 4473 → Possible BUY near the lower boundary and SELL near the upper boundary if the range holds. ⚠️ Risk Management No major news at the moment; price is mainly driven by technical flows. Holiday period → thin liquidity, higher risk of stop hunts. Keep stops reasonable and avoid overtrading. Wishing everyone a productive trading day.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
XAUUSD H4 – Trading the Uptrend Channel with LiquidityXAUUSD H4 – Trading the Uptrend Channel with Liquidity and Volume Profile Gold remains bullish on the H4 timeframe and continues to respect a well-defined rising channel. With price approaching extended areas, the higher-probability approach is to buy pullbacks at value zones and treat the upper boundary as a short-term profit-taking area rather than chasing momentum. TECHNICAL CONTEXT The uptrend structure is still intact, with price forming higher lows inside the channel. After a strong impulsive leg, the market is now consolidating and rebalancing, which favours execution around Volume Profile and FVG zones. The upper channel boundary often acts as a short-term exhaustion area, while value zones below offer better risk-to-reward long entries. PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN PLAN Buy the pullback at key value and liquidity zones Buy POC: around 4485 Buy zone FVG support: around 4368 Rationale: The 4485 POC is a high-volume area where price frequently reacts during pullbacks. The 4368 FVG aligns with channel support and represents an imbalance area that price often revisits before continuation. Expected behaviour: A pullback into POC or the FVG zone, followed by a bullish reaction, can set up the next leg higher within the channel. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY PLAN Short-term sell scalp near the upper boundary Sell scalping zone: around 4600 Note: This is strictly a short-term scalp if price reaches the upper channel boundary and shows clear rejection. It is not a trend reversal thesis. KEY TAKEAWAYS The H4 trend remains bullish, but the channel range is wide, making chasing price riskier. Volume Profile and FVG zones define higher-probability execution areas. The best edge comes from buying pullbacks at value, while treating 4600 as a potential short-term reaction zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End SessionXAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End Session Gold remains in a bullish structure, but this is a holiday market with weaker liquidity as many banks are closed. The best approach here is to trade around liquidity and value areas, rather than chasing price during extended moves. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW On H1, price continues to respect an ascending channel, moving through expansion and pullback phases. After the latest strong push, the market is now consolidating and rotating, which typically favours level-based execution. Momentum remains positive overall, but it is not accelerating aggressively, suggesting selective buying and a higher probability of liquidity sweeps during thin conditions. PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN PLAN Buy the pullback at key liquidity zones inside the bullish channel Buy liquidity zone: 4475 – 4478 Buy POC zone: 4409 – 4412 Technical rationale: The 4475–4478 area is a near-term liquidity pocket within the channel where buyers often step in during technical pullbacks. The 4409–4412 region aligns with the Volume Profile POC, a value area where price frequently stabilises and rebalances supply and demand. Expected price behaviour: A corrective move into these liquidity zones, followed by a bullish reaction, can set up the next leg higher within the channel structure. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY PLAN Short-term sell only at the upper boundary as a scalp Sell zone: 4565 – 4469 Context: This zone sits near the upper channel boundary where profit-taking is common, especially when liquidity is thin. Any sell idea should be treated as a short-term scalp rather than a trend reversal. WHY LIQUIDITY-BASED TRADING MATTERS HERE Holiday sessions can produce irregular flows, sharp spikes, and stop runs Volume Profile helps define higher-probability execution areas instead of emotional entries Trading around value and liquidity improves consistency when price action becomes less reliable FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP AND MARKET SENTIMENT OANDA traders highlight multiple drivers behind the strength in precious metals, with longer-term projections pointing to further upside for gold and silver next year. The narrative remains supported by safe-haven demand, expectations of easier monetary conditions, and a softer USD tone. Still, in the short term, the holiday environment can distort price action, making liquidity zones even more important for execution.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAU/USD: Buy now as it accumulates below resistance!◆ Market Context (M30) Gold prices are maintaining a short-term uptrend. After the previous BOS increase, the market is currently accumulating just below the Resistance area, indicating that buyers are still in control but need more liquidity before expanding the range. ◆ SMC & Price Action • The current structure is still Higher High – Higher Low, with no bearish CHoCH. • Prices are compressing just below the Resistance Zone ~4,518, indicating the possibility of sweeping liquidity in both directions before a breakout. • Below exists Buy-side Liquidity + FVG, which is a good support area for the trend continuation scenario. ◆ Key Levels on the chart • Resistance Zone: ~4,518 • Buy Liquidity: 4,501 – 4,492 • FVG Buy: ~4,465 • Invalid bullish structure: M30 closes below 4,465 ◆ Trading Scenarios ➤ Scenario 1 – BUY pullback (priority) • Wait for the price to retrace to 4,501 – 4,492 (Buy Liquidity) • If there is a price holding reaction → continue to BUY according to the trend • Targets: 4,518 → 4,540+ • SL: below 4,465 ➤ Scenario 2 – BUY deep at FVG • In case the price sweeps more strongly to ~4,465 (FVG Buy) • This is the last defense area for buyers in the current structure • Expect a rebound to the old peak area ➤ Scenario 3 – Break & Continue • If the price breaks decisively above 4,518 and holds • Watch for a retest to BUY according to the expanding wave ◆ Summary • Main bias: Bullish. • Strategy: Buy the dip, do not SELL without a bearish CHoCH. • Important observation areas: 4,501 – 4,492 – 4,465. • Break above 4,518 will open a new upward phase.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
XAUUSD (H1) – Trading BUY Liquidity Stay bullish with the rising channel, buy the pullback into liquidity Quick view Gold is still moving inside a rising channel. After the strong impulsive push, price is now consolidating / compressing. For today, I’m prioritising BUY setups at liquidity + trendline retests, while keeping a reaction SELL plan at the premium Fibonacci zone above. Macro context (why volatility can stay elevated) Trump signing a record number of executive orders and the growing shift of power towards the executive branch increases policy uncertainty (tariffs, federal cuts, geopolitical moves). In uncertain environments, flows often rotate into safe-haven assets like gold. That said, this kind of headline risk can also move the USD sharply, so the best approach is still: trade the levels, not emotions. Key Levels (from your chart) ✅ Buy zone Liquidity: 4410 – 4413 ✅ Buy trendline retest: 4480 – 4483 ✅ Sell zone (Fibo 1.618): 4603 – 4606 Today’s trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level) 1) BUY scenario (priority) A. Trendline retest = best structural entry Buy: 4480 – 4483 SL: below the zone (guide: 4472–4475, adjust on lower TF / spread) TP1: 4515 – 4520 TP2: 4580 – 4600 B. Deeper liquidity buy (if we get a sweep) Buy: 4410 – 4413 SL: below the zone (guide: 4402–4405) TP: 4480 → 4520 Logic: These are the cleanest liquidity areas on the chart. No chasing mid-range — I only act when price returns to the zone and reacts. 2) SELL scenario (reaction only — no chasing) Sell: 4603 – 4606 SL: 4612 TP1: 4550 TP2: 4483 Logic: The 1.618 premium zone often attracts profit-taking. I only sell if price taps the zone and shows clear weakness on the lower timeframe. Notes If price keeps holding the trendline and printing higher lows → BUY bias remains stronger. If we break the trendline and fail to reclaim it → reduce size and wait for a fresh structure. Which side are you leaning today: buying the pullback, or waiting for 4603–4606 to sell the reaction?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
2
XAU/USD – Bullish trend, focus on Buying the DipMarket Context Gold remains in a bullish environment, trading within an ascending structure. The recent pullback appears to be a technical retracement after an impulsive move, not a trend reversal. From a fundamental perspective, expectations of a more accommodative Fed continue to weigh on the USD, keeping gold supported on dips. This backdrop favors trend-following BUY strategies rather than aggressive SELLs. Technical Structure (H1) Overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low Price is holding above the ascending trendline No confirmed bearish Break of Structure Current phase = rebalancing / pullback within uptrend Key Zones on Chart OBS BUY Zone: 4,483 – 4,475 Deeper Support: 4,457 Near Resistance: 4,515 Upper Resistance / Target: 4,534 Major Supply: 4,566 Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend Continuation BUY Wait for price to pull back into the OBS BUY zone (4,483 – 4,475) Look for bullish reaction / structure hold on lower timeframes This zone aligns with demand + trend support Targets TP1: 4,515 TP2: 4,534 TP3: 4,566 (expect reaction / profit-taking) Alternative Scenario If price breaks above 4,534 with acceptance → Expect a push toward 4,566, but avoid chasing at premium Invalidation A H1 close below 4,457 would weaken the bullish structure and shift bias to neutral. Summary Gold remains bullish as long as structure support holds. The priority is to buy pullbacks at key demand zones, manage risk near resistance, and avoid emotional entries at the highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | December 26, 2025 1. Momentum Analysis D1 (Daily) Daily momentum is currently preparing for a bearish reversal. There is a high probability that momentum will confirm a downside reversal today or tomorrow. If confirmed, the market is likely to enter a Daily corrective move lasting at least several candles. H4 H4 momentum remains bullish. Therefore, in the short term, the upward move or sideways consolidation on H4 may persist for approximately one to two more candles before clear signs of weakening appear. H1 H1 momentum is already turning down, indicating that short-term bearish pressure continues to dominate on the H1 timeframe. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Structure The Daily wave structure has not changed significantly. Price remains within wave X of a flat corrective structure inside wave 4 (yellow). With Daily momentum approaching a bearish reversal, I expect wave X to complete once D1 momentum confirms the reversal. H4 Structure Within the blue wave 5, we can observe a complete 5-wave structure in red. Price is currently in the final phase of red wave 5. Once red wave 5 is completed, this will confirm the completion of purple wave X. Notably, red wave 5 appears to be extended, and according to Elliott Wave characteristics, the first corrective leg following an extended wave 5 is often sharp and aggressive. Therefore, confirmation from momentum reversal signals will be essential to validate wave completion. H1 Structure Inside red wave 5, the H1 timeframe also shows a 5-wave internal structure (black 1–2–3–4–5). Price has already reached the 4514 target zone, yet at today’s session open, a new high was formed. When combined with Daily momentum preparing for a bearish reversal, contracting candle ranges, and the fact that price has already met its primary target, I am leaning toward the scenario that black wave 5 is forming a terminal triangle. At this stage, there is no confirmed terminal triangle yet, so continued observation is required before drawing final conclusions. 3. Volume Profile & Key Price Zones From the Volume Profile, price is currently trading within a high-liquidity range between 4471 and 4514. A strong breakout from this zone in either direction will provide important confirmation for the next directional move. - A daily close below 4471 would strongly suggest that wave 5 has completed, opening the door for a clearer bearish trend. - As long as price remains inside this range, the market is still in a late-stage consolidation phase. 4. Trading Plan The market is currently in a holiday period, resulting in low liquidity and unpredictable stop-hunting behavior. Additionally, the Elliott Wave structures on higher timeframes are still awaiting confirmation. Therefore: - Focus on short-term trades only, or remain patient and observe - Avoid large position sizing - Wait for clear confirmation from momentum and structural breaks I will update the analysis once clearer signals emerge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
Gold 1H – Smart Money Traps Near 4540–4450 Range🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (23/12) 📈 Market Context Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframes, but price is now trading inside a compression zone after a clear impulsive expansion. With year-end liquidity thinning and traders positioning ahead of fresh Fed rate expectations and USD yield fluctuations, Gold is vulnerable to liquidity manipulation rather than clean continuation. Recent USD softness and mixed macro headlines keep Gold supported, yet extended pricing near highs increases the probability of stop hunts on both sides before the next decisive move. Smart Money behavior here favors range engineering — drawing in breakout traders above highs and shaking out impatient long positions below key demand — before revealing true intent. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Bullish HTF structure with short-term distribution Key Idea: Expect liquidity interaction at premium (4540–4542) or discount (4450–4448) before displacement Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe bullish BOS remains intact • Recent CHoCH signals short-term distribution risk • Price is trading in premium, extended from equilibrium • Clear impulsive leg left unmitigated inefficiencies below • A defined scalping range has formed between premium and discount • Liquidity rests clearly above 4540 and below 4450 Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4540 – 4542 | SL 4560 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4450 – 4448 | SL 4440 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation: Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4540 – 4542 | SL 4560 Rules: ✔ Sweep above premium buy-side liquidity ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4510 2. 4485 3. 4450 – extension if USD strengthens or yields push higher 🟢 BUY GOLD 4450 – 4448 | SL 4440 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab into discount and prior demand ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand control ✔ Upside BOS with strong bullish displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FGV fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4480 2. 4510 3. 4540 – extension if USD weakens and bullish flow resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Premium trading increases fake breakout probability • No entry without MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect volatility during U.S. session and thin year-end liquidity • Reduce risk around Fed-driven or USD yield headlines 📍 Summary Gold is still bullish by structure, but current price action signals liquidity games inside a defined range. Smart Money is likely to engineer stops before expansion: • A sweep above 4540 may fade back toward 4485–4450, or • A liquidity grab near 4450 could reload long positions toward 4510–4540+ Let price show intent — Smart Money waits, retail reacts. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 23/12/2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily): The D1 momentum has already shifted to the upside. However, this reversal is occurring directly within the overbought zone. This suggests that the current bullish move may not be sustainable for long, and the risk of a medium-term reversal should be carefully monitored. H4: H4 momentum is currently compressed, indicating that the bullish move still has room to continue. That said, a momentum reversal can occur at any time. A single confirmed bearish H4 candle would likely trigger a corrective move lasting several H4 candles. H1: H1 momentum is currently turning down. Therefore, in the short term, there is a high probability of a pullback on the H1 timeframe, especially if the decline extends over several consecutive H1 candles. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1: The current D1 wave structure shows that price has broken above the Wave 3 high. Although this does not completely invalidate the flat correction scenario, it serves as an important warning signal that requires close attention. The 127% extension of the purple W wave is the next key observation zone. According to Elliott Wave theory, if price breaks below the base of wave W, wave X often extends toward the 127% level of wave W. If price decisively breaks this zone, we must prepare for the possibility of a new bullish trend, potentially with a larger upside expansion. In that case, an updated scenario will be provided. H4: Wave 5 (blue) is currently extending. At this stage, the priority remains observation and confirmation from H4 momentum. If a confirmed bearish H4 candle appears, we will reassess whether a short-term top has already been formed. H1: Within the red 5-wave structure, wave 5 is showing signs of extension. Inside this red wave 5, a smaller black 5-wave structure is developing. When wave 5 extends, precise target projection becomes more challenging. Therefore, at this stage, we use the 127% extension of the purple W wave on D1, around the 4514 price zone, as the primary observation target. If price breaks strongly above 4514, the probability of a new bullish trend increases significantly. If price reaches this zone and reverses downward, the D1 flat correction scenario remains valid, and the downside target of the purple Y wave may be adjusted higher than initially expected. 3. Trading Plan & Targets The 4514 zone is considered the primary Sell observation area. However, it is important to emphasize: - Top picking always carries very high risk, even though potential rewards may be large - With an extended wave 5, price action can become highly volatile and irregular - Therefore, position sizing and strict risk management are mandatory Sell Zone: 4514 – 4516 Stop Loss: 4535 Take Profit 1: 4420 Take Profit 2: 4348
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
XAU/USD: Buy at FVG + Fibo, sell at Upper Liquidity◆ Market Context (M30) Gold maintains an upward trend with previous BOS movements. After the push to the nearest peak, the price is undergoing a technical correction to rebalance liquidity before choosing the next direction. ◆ SMC & Price Action • The current decline is a pullback, with no bearish CHoCH confirming a reversal. • The retracement area coincides with FVG + Fibo (0.5–0.618) → potential BUY reaction zone. • Above exists Liquidity $$$ (Sell) – a target to attract liquidity if the price surges. ◆ Key Levels • FVG – Fibo BUY: 4,466 – 4,461 • Liquidity SELL: ~4,584 • Intermediate resistance: 4,524 • Invalid bullish: H1/M30 closes below 4,455 ◆ Trading Scenarios ➤ Scenario A – BUY Pullback (priority) • Wait for price to retrace to 4,466–4,461 • Condition: candle holds price, does not break structural low • Targets: 4,524 → 4,584 • SL: below 4,455 ➤ Scenario B – Break & Continue • If price holds above the current area and continues to close bullish candles • Follow the trend, take partial profits at 4,524 ➤ Scenario C – SELL Reaction (short-term) • When price hits Liquidity ~4,584 • Only SELL if a clear rejection appears (wick/engulfing) ◆ Summary • Main bias: Bullish. • Strategy: Buy the dip, avoid counter-trend SELL without CHoCH. • Decision zone: 4,466–4,461 | Target: 4,524 → 4,584.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
1
Bullish Trend Intact, Focus on Buy-the-Dip Market ContextGold continues to trade firmly within an ascending channel, maintaining its bullish momentum after the latest impulsive move. The market is currently in a technical pullback phase, which is considered healthy within an uptrend rather than a sign of reversal. On the fundamental side, dovish Fed expectations and the outlook for lower interest rates keep pressure on the USD, providing ongoing support for gold. As long as this macro backdrop remains unchanged, downside moves are expected to stay corrective. Technical Structure (H1) Bullish market structure remains valid (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) Price is holding above the ascending trendline No confirmed bearish break of structure Overall bias remains bullish continuation Key Price Zones Primary BUY Zone: 4,480 – 4,470 (Trendline support + demand zone + structure support) Deeper Support: 4,444 Upside Targets / Resistance: 4,512 → 4,563 Trading Plan – MMF Style Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY If price pulls back into 4,480 – 4,470 and holds on H1 → Look for BUY setups aligned with the main trend This zone represents a high-probability area for smart money re-entry Targets TP1: 4,512 TP2: 4,563 Scale out near major resistance areas Alternative Scenario If price does not retrace deeply and holds above 4,500 → Wait for a break & retest before considering continuation BUYs Avoid chasing price near the upper resistance zone Invalidation A H1 close below 4,444 would weaken the short-term bullish structure and require reassessment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold 1H – Traps form near 4500–4420.Gold 1H – Liquidity Compression Sets Traps Around 4500–4420 🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (23/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading inside a strong bullish structure after a clean impulsive expansion, currently hovering in a premium zone near recent highs. With price extended from the mean, the market is vulnerable to liquidity engineering rather than immediate continuation. CPI uncertainty and mixed USD flows continue to reduce directional conviction, favoring stop hunts at key psychological levels instead of clean breakouts. This environment often rewards patience and confirmation-based execution rather than anticipation. Smart Money is likely to manipulate both sides of the range — sweeping late buyers above 4500 or shaking out weak longs into the 4420 discount before the next meaningful expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Bullish structure with signs of short-term distribution Key Idea: Expect liquidity interaction at 4500–4502 (premium) or 4420–4418 (discount) before displacement Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe bullish BOS remains intact • Price is trading deep in premium, extended from equilibrium • Clear impulsive leg created unmitigated FVGs below current price • Momentum is slowing near highs → distribution risk • Liquidity is resting clearly above 4500 and below 4420 Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4500 – 4502 | SL 4510 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation: Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4500 – 4502 | SL 4510 Rules: ✔ Sweep above psychological 4500 buy-side liquidity ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4470 2. 4450 3. 4420 – extension if USD firms or risk-off accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab into discount and bullish structure support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand control ✔ Upside BOS with strong bullish displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4450 2. 4475 3. 4500 – extension if USD weakens and bullish flow resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Extended bullish moves increase fake breakout probability • No entry without MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect volatility during U.S. session • Reduce risk around CPI-related or Fed-driven headlines 📍 Summary Gold remains structurally bullish, but trading at premium levels where conviction is fragile. Smart Money is likely to engineer liquidity before the next expansion: • A sweep above 4500 may fade toward 4450–4420, or • A liquidity grab near 4420 could reload bullish flow toward 4475–4500+ Let price reveal intent — Smart Money waits, retail rushes. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold retests highs as upside momentum shows signs of fatigueGold saw a strong rally, reaching the 4497 zone before facing resistance and correcting toward 4431. The price later bounced and revisited the upper area near 4493, confirming it as a significant reaction zone. Multiple attempts at the highs indicate that buying strength may be losing pace, with price action showing hesitation near supply. After such an extended move, some rebalancing is natural. From the current area, selling pressure may slowly build, allowing room for a corrective move. A drift toward the 4400 zone is possible as volatility cools and short-term traders adjust positions. If sellers remain engaged, price action may stay subdued into the close and carry a softer tone into the next session. Staying disciplined with risk is important near these levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SwingTrade_Concept
XAU/USD: Buy on pullback in strong upward trend!◆ Market Context (M30) Gold is in a clear upward trend, demonstrated by a series of consecutive BOS and gradually higher lows/highs. After a strong push, the price is currently consolidating sideways in the premium area, indicating the market is pausing before choosing the next direction. ◆ SMC & Price Action • The upward structure remains intact, with no bearish CHoCH appearing. • The current adjustment area is the Buy Zone – where the price previously created a BOS. • This sideways movement is rebalancing, often a precursor to the next upward move if support is not broken. ◆ Key Levels • Buy Zone: 4,476 – 4,464 • Invalid upward: clear break below 4,464 • Upper targets: ▪ 4,531 ▪ 4,565 ◆ Trading Scenarios ➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (priority) • Wait for a pullback or hold within Buy Zone 4,476 – 4,464 • Condition: candle holds price, does not break structural low • Targets: ▪ 4,531 ▪ 4,565 • SL: below 4,464 ➤ Scenario B – Break & Continue • If price holds above the current area and continues to close bullish candles • Follow the trend, manage orders partially at target levels ➤ Scenario C – Defensive • If 4,464 is clearly broken • Short-term upward structure invalidated → stay out and wait for a new setup ◆ Summary • Main trend: Strong bullish. • Priority strategy: BUY with the trend, do not SELL against it. • Decision area: 4,476 – 4,464. • Next targets: 4,531 → 4,565.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital