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Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 2, 2026 🎉 Happy New Year 2026 Wishing everyone a disciplined, consistent, and profitable trading year ahead. 1. Momentum Analysis Daily (D1) Daily momentum is currently approaching the oversold zone and preparing for a bullish reversal. This suggests that in the coming period, the market is likely to see a corrective rebound lasting at least several days, until D1 momentum reaches the overbought area. H4 H4 momentum is currently in the overbought zone, which increases the probability of a bearish momentum reversal on the H4 timeframe in the near term. H1 H1 momentum is compressed and overlapping within the overbought zone, indicating a high probability that H1 momentum will continue to turn bearish. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily (D1) After the strong sell-off, we can identify approximately five consecutive bearish D1 candles, which aligns well with the observation that D1 momentum is preparing to reverse upward from oversold conditions. Therefore, the upcoming advance is likely to be Wave 2 or Wave B, within the structure of the purple Wave Y. This expected rebound may move in sync with D1 momentum. As a result, we should closely monitor price behavior as D1 momentum enters the overbought zone for confirmation. - If D1 momentum reaches overbought but price fails to create a new high, this will further confirm the continuation of the purple Wave Y scenario. - The projected targets for Wave Y remain at 4072 and 3761. H4 The prior decline on H4 can be counted as Wave 1 or Wave A within the purple Wave Y structure. The current recovery is likely forming Wave 2 or Wave B. ⚠️ If price breaks decisively above 4549 while D1 momentum is already overbought, the current wave-count scenario would be invalidated and require reassessment. H1 A complete five-wave bearish structure (red) has already formed. According to Elliott Wave principles, a completed five-wave move is typically followed by at least a three-wave corrective structure. With D1 momentum preparing to reverse bullishly, if today’s D1 candle closes with bullish confirmation, this corrective rally could extend for several days, but should not break above the 4549 level. Since this advance is likely Wave 2 or Wave B, its characteristics are expected to be: - Slow price movement - Overlapping and choppy sub-waves 👉 For this reason, I recommend short-term trading only at this stage and avoiding aggressive long-term buy positions. 3. Resistance Zones & Key Levels The expected completion zones for the corrective rebound are: - 4376 - 4405 - 4445 Among these: - 4405 and 4445 are strong confluence resistance zones, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline. - These areas are considered ideal zones to look for long-term sell opportunities, targeting the completion of the purple Wave Y. 4. Trading Plan Sell Scenario 1 - Sell zone: 4404 – 4406 - Stop loss: 4415 - TP1: 4344 - TP2: 4275 - TP3: 4072 Sell Scenario 2 - Sell zone: 4444 – 4446 - Stop loss: 4465 - TP1: 4405 - TP2: 4275 - TP3: 4072
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD December 30, 2025 Momentum Daily (D1): Daily momentum is currently turning bearish. This suggests the downside trend is likely to continue for the next few days. H4: H4 momentum is turning bullish, indicating a short-term corrective rebound is developing. H1: H1 momentum is compressed, which implies the current upward move may continue, but a potential bearish reversal on H1 remains a risk. Wave Structure Daily Wave Structure (D1): Yesterday’s strong bearish candle with wide range has confirmed a bearish shift in D1 momentum and closed below the Wave 3 high at 4396. This behavior strongly suggests that Wave X has completed, and price has now entered Wave Y. The characteristics of Wave Y were explained in detail in yesterday’s plan. The fact that Wave X exceeded the 4396 high significantly increases the probability of a strong bearish Wave Y. Wave Y targets: - Primary target: 4072 - Extended target: 3761 H4 Wave Structure: The current steep and impulsive decline on H4 suggests a 5-wave structure, which can be interpreted as: - Wave 1 if Wave Y develops as a 5-wave impulse, or - Wave A if Wave Y unfolds as a 3-wave ABC correction. Since the dominant D1 momentum remains bearish, the strategy is to wait for H4 momentum to reach overbought and reverse, then look for sell opportunities on H1. H1 Wave Structure: On H1, a potential 5-wave structure (12345, marked in red) may be forming. The current rebound aligns with the H4 momentum correction, as highlighted in yesterday’s update. Therefore, we will wait for H4 momentum to reverse bearish from overbought conditions before executing sell setups. From the Volume Profile, there is a major high-liquidity boundary around 4405, with an additional liquidity zone above 4471. Given the strength of the current downtrend, 4405 is expected to act as a strong resistance, likely completing Wave 4 (red). This would be followed by Wave 5 (red) pushing price below 4266, or potentially deeper toward 4217. This scenario gains further confirmation if price closes below 4317. If price rallies into the upper liquidity zone above 4471, the current rebound would no longer be considered Wave 4, but instead could be Wave 2 or Wave B within a larger corrective structure. In that case, the plan will be updated accordingly. Trading Plan - SELL ZONE: 4402 – 4405 - Stop Loss: 4422 - TP1: 4348 - TP2: 4317 - TP3: 4266
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 31/12/2025 Today is the final trading plan of 2025. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who has accompanied and supported me throughout this year. The market does not always move as we expect, but your continuous support—especially your honest feedback—has helped me improve and stay committed to this work. I wish all of you a successful, disciplined, and profitable year ahead in 2026. 1. Momentum Daily (D1) Daily momentum is currently declining. Including today’s candle, we can count approximately three consecutive bearish D1 candles. This suggests that D1 momentum is approaching the oversold zone, with a high probability of 1–2 more bearish daily candles before momentum reaches oversold and a reaction bounce appears. H4 H4 momentum remains bearish but is starting to compress. We need to wait for the current H4 candle to close for confirmation. There is still a high probability that price will continue lower to push H4 momentum into the oversold zone. H1 H1 momentum is preparing to turn bearish again, indicating that the short-term downside move is likely to continue. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily Structure (D1) On the Daily timeframe, price is still moving within purple wave Y of the Flat W–X–Y corrective structure. The current decline has already lasted around three D1 candles. Combined with D1 momentum approaching oversold, I expect this decline to extend for another 1–2 daily candles, followed by a corrective rebound driven by D1 momentum. The target zone for the completion of wave Y remains unchanged. H4 Structure On H4, price corrections are relatively shallow and the market is showing signs of continuation to the downside. Therefore, the primary scenario remains a 5-wave bearish structure. We will monitor whether H4 momentum moves into oversold or shows a clear reversal signal to confirm this count. H1 Structure On H1, the current decline is labeled as a 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5). H1 momentum has turned bearish again, while price has created a liquidity zone with a key boundary at 4372. As long as price remains below 4372, I expect the decline to continue toward 4266, which is the projected completion level of wave 5. In addition, there is a major liquidity support zone between 4317 – 4348 below current price. A daily or H1 close below 4317 would further strengthen the bearish wave count. 3. Primary Trading Scenario Once the decline completes near 4266, this area is expected to mark the completion of red wave 5. From this zone, we can look for buy opportunities, as it also aligns with a major high-to-low liquidity boundary. 4. Important Risk Note Although H4 momentum is currently compressing and still requires confirmation, this is an early warning signal. If an H4 candle closes bullish and confirms a momentum reversal, the current upward move would likely form a 3-wave corrective structure, which would invalidate the red 1–2–3–4–5 bearish count. In that case, the entire decline could be either a 3-wave or 5-wave structure on a higher timeframe, and I will update the wave count accordingly once confirmation appears. 5. Trading Plan (Reference) Buy Zone: 4227 – 4225 Stop Loss: 4207 TP1: 4317 TP2: 4372 TP3: 4471
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
Gold (XAU/USD) — Bullish Continuation Setup on 1H📊 Technical Analysis 1. Overall Trend The market remains in an uptrend, confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. A trend line drawn from lower left is supporting price structure nicely. Price is above both the 9 EMA and 15 EMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. 2. Key Levels Resistance Zones Immediate resistance (red box): Currently challenging this level — price is struggling to break above. Larger supply area above: A wider grey zone above the immediate resistance — likely the next target once cleared. Major target: ~4580 — marked as the next significant upside. Support Zones Minor support (thin horizontal): Around ~4510, could act as intraday support. Strong demand zone: Around ~4475–4490 — significant buyers previously entered here. Trend line support beneath the candles — dynamic support reinforcing bullish bias. 3. Price Action & Structure Recent Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside indicates buyers are in control. After the BOS, price retraced slightly then resumed higher, a sign of healthy bullish behavior. Current consolidation at resistance suggests a potential shakeout / liquidity hunt before continuation. 4. Possible Scenarios (as annotated) Bullish Scenario (favored): Price consolidates slightly, retests support ~4510–trendline zone, Then breaks above the red resistance box, Targets the larger grey supply zone and then ~4580+. Alternative Short Pullback: Minor pullback into support, Then bounce for continuation. The dotted projected line on your chart reflects this potential pullback → rally sequence. 📉 Volume Context Buying volume tends to increase on bullish moves, Showing participation from demand zones — supportive of upside continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KingProTrader
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Week 1, January 2026 1. Momentum Weekly timeframe (W1): Observing the weekly momentum, we can see that momentum is rolling over within the overbought zone. This suggests a high probability that weekly momentum may reverse next week, or at least that a meaningful corrective move could take place. Daily timeframe (D1): Daily momentum is also showing signs of exhaustion and compression, indicating that short- to medium-term reversal risk is increasing. The probability of a corrective move during the coming week is relatively high. H4 timeframe: H4 momentum is currently declining, although signs of compression are emerging. We need to wait for the Monday session to confirm whether this is merely a short-term pullback or the beginning of a clearer bearish move. 2. Elliott Wave Structure – Weekly (W1) On the weekly chart, price has just printed a new high following a strong bullish candle last week. Prior to that, the market had formed a series of small-bodied candles, followed by a significantly larger candle, while volume did not expand accordingly. This behavior serves as a bull-trap warning signal, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually weakening. In addition, the flat corrective structure has not been invalidated. When combined with the fact that weekly momentum is preparing to reverse, the probability that price is forming a top and completing Wave X during the coming week is very high. Since Wave X has exceeded the low of Wave W, the first target for Wave Y is expected to be around 4072, equivalent to the length of Wave W. 3. Elliott Wave Structure – Daily (D1) Within the purple Wave X, price is forming a red ABC corrective structure. Notably, Wave C (red) contains an internal 5-wave impulsive structure (blue). If this 5-wave structure is fully confirmed, the next scenario is likely to be a sharp and steep decline, occurring immediately after the extended Wave 5 is completed. 4. Elliott Wave Structure – H4 On the H4 timeframe, within the blue Wave 5, we can observe a 5-wave structure labeled in red. Looking deeper, within red Wave 5, a black 5-wave structure is currently developing, and price is now in black Wave 5. Key characteristics of this black Wave 5 include: - Price has already reached its projected target - Waves are beginning to overlap Therefore, the preferred scenario at this stage is that black Wave 5 is likely forming an Ending Diagonal. Confirmation / Invalidation conditions: - Price must not break above the 4594 level. → A breakout above this zone would invalidate the Ending Diagonal scenario. - Price needs to decline strongly and close below 4471, which is a major liquidity support zone. → If this level is broken, the next major liquidity zone lies around 4348. 5. Market Condition Notice With only a few days left before the year-end, market liquidity remains very low. Under these conditions: - Price action often becomes choppy and directionless - False breakouts and stop hunts on both sides are more likely to occur For this reason, I recommend staying on the sidelines and limiting trading activity, especially for medium-term positions. Capital preservation should remain the top priority in this low-liquidity, high-risk environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
XAUUSD/GOLD 4H BUY PROJECTION 28.12.25Pair: XAUUSD / Gold Timeframe: 4H Bias: Bullish (Buy continuation) Date: 28-12-2025 Market is in a strong uptrend, respecting a parallel ascending channel. 📈 Technical Structure Explained 1️⃣ Trend & Pattern Price is moving inside a Parallel Uptrend Channel A Bullish Flag formed after a strong impulsive move Then price formed a V-Continuation Pattern → strong bullish sign Breakout happened with momentum candles 👉 This confirms trend continuation, not reversal 2️⃣ Key Levels Marked 🟦 Supports Support S1: ~4520 Support S2: ~4500 These are dip-buy zones if price retraces. 🟥 Resistance / Breakout Area Immediate Resistance: ~4530 Price broke & retested this zone Also aligns with Fibonacci retracement + structure break 👉 This level is now acting as support 3️⃣ Entry Logic (Buy Setup) ✅ Buy Confirmation Zone After breakout + retest Strong bullish candle close above 4530 Momentum continuation (higher highs & higher lows) 🟩 Safe Buy Area: 4525 – 4535 (retest zone) 4️⃣ Targets (Upside Projection) 🎯 Target 1 (R1 / Previous High): ~4560 🎯 Target 2 (Expected ATH): ~4620 🎯 Extended Target: ~4660 – 4680 (Top of the channel / projected ATH) 5️⃣ Stop Loss (Risk Management) 🛑 SL Options: Conservative SL: below 4500 Aggressive SL: below 4510 ATR-based SL preferred for volatility control
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | December 26, 2025 1. Momentum Analysis D1 (Daily) Daily momentum is currently preparing for a bearish reversal. There is a high probability that momentum will confirm a downside reversal today or tomorrow. If confirmed, the market is likely to enter a Daily corrective move lasting at least several candles. H4 H4 momentum remains bullish. Therefore, in the short term, the upward move or sideways consolidation on H4 may persist for approximately one to two more candles before clear signs of weakening appear. H1 H1 momentum is already turning down, indicating that short-term bearish pressure continues to dominate on the H1 timeframe. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Structure The Daily wave structure has not changed significantly. Price remains within wave X of a flat corrective structure inside wave 4 (yellow). With Daily momentum approaching a bearish reversal, I expect wave X to complete once D1 momentum confirms the reversal. H4 Structure Within the blue wave 5, we can observe a complete 5-wave structure in red. Price is currently in the final phase of red wave 5. Once red wave 5 is completed, this will confirm the completion of purple wave X. Notably, red wave 5 appears to be extended, and according to Elliott Wave characteristics, the first corrective leg following an extended wave 5 is often sharp and aggressive. Therefore, confirmation from momentum reversal signals will be essential to validate wave completion. H1 Structure Inside red wave 5, the H1 timeframe also shows a 5-wave internal structure (black 1–2–3–4–5). Price has already reached the 4514 target zone, yet at today’s session open, a new high was formed. When combined with Daily momentum preparing for a bearish reversal, contracting candle ranges, and the fact that price has already met its primary target, I am leaning toward the scenario that black wave 5 is forming a terminal triangle. At this stage, there is no confirmed terminal triangle yet, so continued observation is required before drawing final conclusions. 3. Volume Profile & Key Price Zones From the Volume Profile, price is currently trading within a high-liquidity range between 4471 and 4514. A strong breakout from this zone in either direction will provide important confirmation for the next directional move. - A daily close below 4471 would strongly suggest that wave 5 has completed, opening the door for a clearer bearish trend. - As long as price remains inside this range, the market is still in a late-stage consolidation phase. 4. Trading Plan The market is currently in a holiday period, resulting in low liquidity and unpredictable stop-hunting behavior. Additionally, the Elliott Wave structures on higher timeframes are still awaiting confirmation. Therefore: - Focus on short-term trades only, or remain patient and observe - Avoid large position sizing - Wait for clear confirmation from momentum and structural breaks I will update the analysis once clearer signals emerge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 23/12/2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily): The D1 momentum has already shifted to the upside. However, this reversal is occurring directly within the overbought zone. This suggests that the current bullish move may not be sustainable for long, and the risk of a medium-term reversal should be carefully monitored. H4: H4 momentum is currently compressed, indicating that the bullish move still has room to continue. That said, a momentum reversal can occur at any time. A single confirmed bearish H4 candle would likely trigger a corrective move lasting several H4 candles. H1: H1 momentum is currently turning down. Therefore, in the short term, there is a high probability of a pullback on the H1 timeframe, especially if the decline extends over several consecutive H1 candles. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1: The current D1 wave structure shows that price has broken above the Wave 3 high. Although this does not completely invalidate the flat correction scenario, it serves as an important warning signal that requires close attention. The 127% extension of the purple W wave is the next key observation zone. According to Elliott Wave theory, if price breaks below the base of wave W, wave X often extends toward the 127% level of wave W. If price decisively breaks this zone, we must prepare for the possibility of a new bullish trend, potentially with a larger upside expansion. In that case, an updated scenario will be provided. H4: Wave 5 (blue) is currently extending. At this stage, the priority remains observation and confirmation from H4 momentum. If a confirmed bearish H4 candle appears, we will reassess whether a short-term top has already been formed. H1: Within the red 5-wave structure, wave 5 is showing signs of extension. Inside this red wave 5, a smaller black 5-wave structure is developing. When wave 5 extends, precise target projection becomes more challenging. Therefore, at this stage, we use the 127% extension of the purple W wave on D1, around the 4514 price zone, as the primary observation target. If price breaks strongly above 4514, the probability of a new bullish trend increases significantly. If price reaches this zone and reverses downward, the D1 flat correction scenario remains valid, and the downside target of the purple Y wave may be adjusted higher than initially expected. 3. Trading Plan & Targets The 4514 zone is considered the primary Sell observation area. However, it is important to emphasize: - Top picking always carries very high risk, even though potential rewards may be large - With an extended wave 5, price action can become highly volatile and irregular - Therefore, position sizing and strict risk management are mandatory Sell Zone: 4514 – 4516 Stop Loss: 4535 Take Profit 1: 4420 Take Profit 2: 4348
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs USD) – Daily Chart Analysis: Strong UptrendOverall Trend Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a strong long-term uptrend on the daily timeframe. Price is making higher highs and higher lows, trading near the upper range around 4,485. The broader bullish structure is intact despite minor pullbacks. Price Action Recent candles show steady bullish continuation, but momentum is slightly slowing. Price is approaching a descending trendline resistance (blue dashed line), which could act as a short-term cap. A breakout above this trendline would confirm further upside continuation. RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI is around 81, clearly in the overbought zone. Previous “Bear” divergence labels suggest that momentum has weakened before at similar RSI levels. This increases the probability of a short-term correction or consolidation, even if the main trend remains bullish. Volume Volume has picked up recently, supporting the latest price advance. However, volume is not expanding aggressively, hinting at possible buyer exhaustion near current highs. MACD MACD remains above the signal line and in positive territory, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram is modest, suggesting momentum is positive but not accelerating strongly. Key Levels Resistance: 4,500 – 4,550 zone and the descending trendline. Support: 4,350 – 4,300 (previous consolidation zone). A daily close below support could trigger a deeper pullback toward 4,100–4,200. Outlook: Bullish bias remains dominant, but conditions are overbought. Short-term traders should be cautious of a pullback or sideways consolidation. Medium- to long-term traders may look for buy-the-dip opportunities as long as price holds above key support.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DrForexPhd
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Week 4 of December 1. Momentum Overview Weekly (W1) Weekly momentum is currently preparing to reverse to the downside. If a confirmation candle appears next week, a weekly bearish trend is likely to be established. This would indicate the beginning of a multi-week corrective phase. Daily (D1) Daily momentum has already confirmed a bearish reversal. Therefore, the downside bias is expected to dominate in the coming week. H4 H4 momentum is approaching bearish confirmation. This suggests that selling pressure may begin to emerge as early as the Asian session at the start of the week. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Weekly (W1) The price structure on W1 clearly shows that the market is positioned at the top of Wave 3 (yellow). Combined with the weekly momentum preparing to reverse, the market is likely to continue into Wave 4 (yellow), developing as a flat corrective structure. After Wave X is completed, price is expected to decline in line with weekly momentum to complete Wave Y. The completion of Wave Y may take several weeks, until weekly momentum reaches the oversold zone. Daily (D1) Within the purple Wave X structure, price is forming a red ABC corrective pattern. Inside red Wave C, we observe a five-wave impulse structure (1–2–3–4–5) in blue. At present, price is trading in blue Wave 5. With daily momentum already reversing to the downside, I expect blue Wave 5 to be complete, which implies: - Red Wave C has finished - Purple Wave X has also completed Following this, the market should enter a declining phase to form Wave Y. Regarding time symmetry: - Wave W previously took approximately 3 weeks to complete - Therefore, Wave Y is expected to last at least a similar duration In the coming week, I want to see strong selling pressure, with sharp downside movement, forming a clear five-wave bearish structure. H4 Structure Looking at the blue Wave 5, we can identify an internal five-wave red structure (1–2–3–4–5). The breakout above 4365 suggests that the price objective of red Wave 5 has already been achieved. Currently: - Daily momentum has reversed bearish - H4 momentum is also turning bearish - Price failed to break and hold above 4365 - The latest candle closed below 4348 Based on these combined signals, I expect the top of Wave 5 to be in place. 3. Volume Profile & Price Scenarios From the Volume Profile perspective: - 4348 is a high-liquidity zone acting as a strong resistance - Price has not yet been able to break decisively above this area Primary bearish scenario: If price closes below 4317 (a low-liquidity void) at the start of the next session, the market is likely to move quickly through this area and decline toward the next high-liquidity zone near 4215. This scenario would provide strong confirmation that Wave 5 has completed. Alternative scenario: If price breaks above and holds above 4348, Wave 5 may extend further, potentially forming a terminal triangle. In that case, I will continue to monitor higher target zones and provide updates once additional data becomes available. 4. Trading Plan At current levels, this is a potentially strong sell zone. However, to define a precise entry plan, I need additional confirmation from price action at the market open tomorrow. Once clearer signals appear, I will update the trading plan accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD December 18, 2025 1. Momentum Analysis Daily (D1) Daily momentum is showing early signs of a bearish reversal. However, confirmation is still required by waiting for today’s D1 candle close. If the reversal is confirmed, this would suggest that Wave X is topping, and price is likely to move lower following D1 momentum to complete Wave Y. H4 H4 momentum is currently declining. In the near term, this suggests: - A corrective decline on H4, or - Sideway consolidation until H4 momentum reverses back to the upside H1 H1 momentum is showing signs of a bullish reversal, indicating: - A potential short-term upward move, or - Continued sideways movement within a tightening range 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily (D1) The D1 wave structure remains largely unchanged from the previous plan. However, with D1 momentum weakening and starting to reverse, the probability of a Wave X top forming within today or the next few sessions is increasing. H4 On H4, price may still be developing Wave 5 (blue) of Wave C (red) within the larger Wave X structure. Given that the D1 structure resembles a Flat pattern, a move toward or equal to Wave 3 high near 4396 remains a realistic scenario. H1 Within Wave 5 (blue), we can observe an internal 5-wave structure (red). At this stage, price may be forming: - Wave 4 (red), or - Wave 5 (red), depending on upcoming price behavior Current advances are: - Overlapping - Lacking clear impulsive strength When combined with declining H4 momentum, this leads to two primary scenarios. 3. Main Scenarios 🔹 Scenario 1: Wave 4 Triangle Price remains in Wave 4, developing a triangle structure. In this case: - Wave d is likely complete - Price is currently forming Wave e 📌 The expected termination zone for Wave e: - Aligns with a bullish reversal in H4 momentum - Converges with the lower boundary of the triangle From Volume Profile analysis: - Price is currently trading around the POC (Point of Control), which also aligns with the Wave 3 top - Below, the 4301 zone represents a key liquidity boundary → this is the primary expectation for Wave e completion - Further below, 4271 marks a strong High–Low volume boundary ⚠️ A daily close below 4271 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper bearish scenario. 🔹 Scenario 2: Wave 5 (Red) – Ending Triangle Another high-probability scenario is that price is currently within Wave 5 (red). This Wave 5 may be forming an Ending Triangle with an internal 5-wave black structure. Key characteristics: - Gradually rising price - Strong overlap - Weakening momentum In this scenario: - Price should remain supported above the current POC - A final push higher toward 4365 is expected - Completion of Wave 5 would likely be followed by a sharp and steep bearish move, which is typical after an ending triangle 📌 This scenario requires additional price confirmation, and updates will be provided as structure becomes clearer. 4. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4302 – 4300 Stop Loss: 4290 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 4332 TP2: 4365 TP3: 4393
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 17/12/2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily) After the D1 candle closed, the daily momentum is currently compressed. This condition does not invalidate the ongoing bullish move, but it also does not confirm a reversal yet. We still need to wait for a clear momentum confirmation on D1. H4 H4 momentum is also compressing and showing early signs of a potential reversal. At this stage, there is no confirmed bearish H4 candle, so the correct approach is to remain patient and observe. H1 H1 momentum is weakening, suggesting that a short-term pullback or sideways movement may be developing on the H1 timeframe. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Wave Structure The D1 wave count remains largely unchanged. With daily momentum still compressed, it is possible that price may produce one to two more bullish D1 candles. The upside target near 4396 is still valid to complete wave X. H4 Wave Structure Although H4 momentum has reached the overbought zone, price failed to break the previous high at 4354. This is an early warning signal that bullish momentum is weakening. While the signal is not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, it supports the potential development of a bearish wave Y, as discussed in previous plans. H1 Wave Structure The failure of price to break the H4 high while momentum reached overbought creates two main scenarios on H1: Scenario 1 – Corrective triangle (abcde – blue): + Price may be in the final phase of a triangle correction. + If price drops below the lower boundary to complete wave e, the expected termination zone is around 4284. +Currently, price is still trading above the POC (green area), so it is possible that wave e has already completed. + In that case, a break above the b–d trendline would confirm a breakout entry. Scenario 2 – Impulsive 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5 – black): +Price is currently forming wave 2 (black). +The projected target for wave 2 is also near 4284. 👉 Key Confluence Zone: Both scenarios converge around 4284, making this area a high-probability Buy zone. ⚠️ Risk Note: If price closes below 4274, we must be prepared for a deeper downside scenario, and the current Buy plan should be reconsidered. 3. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4285 – 4283 Stop Loss: 4273 Take Profit 1: 4329 Take Profit 2: 4353 Take Profit 3: 4365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 16, 2025 1. Momentum D1 (Daily): Daily momentum is showing signs of a bearish reversal. However, we must wait for today’s D1 candle to close to confirm this signal. This is a critical confirmation, as it will determine whether the market has formed a medium-term top. H4: H4 momentum is currently in the oversold zone and is preparing for a bullish reversal. Once confirmed, we can expect a technical rebound lasting approximately 4–5 H4 candles. H1: H1 momentum remains bearish and is moving toward the oversold area. We will wait for price to reach oversold conditions and for momentum to confirm a bullish reversal, which would signal a short-term H1 corrective rally. --- 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1: With D1 momentum turning down, if today’s daily candle confirms the reversal, price is likely forming the top of the purple wave X. After wave X completes, the market may enter purple wave Y, which is most likely developing as a Flat correction. → The projected target for wave Y is near the 3888 zone. H4: Price is currently trading within green wave 5. Once this wave 5 completes, it will also mark the completion of wave C and wave X on the higher timeframe. Given that H4 momentum is oversold, a short-term upward move is expected before the broader structure completes. H1: The current decline is likely forming a red 1–2–3–4–5 structure within green wave 5. At this stage, price is developing red wave 4. This red wave 4 is unfolding as a Flat corrective structure, consistent with the scenario outlined in yesterday’s plan. Target for red wave C: around 4260 Above this level, 4274 represents a high-liquidity / low-liquidity boundary Therefore, when price reaches the 4260–4274 zone, we will combine this area with H1 momentum bullish confirmation to look for long entries. Expected targets for red wave 5: Target 1: 4365 Target 2: 4393 3. Key Notes As discussed in previous plans, the recent rebound did not reach the 4353 level. This does not invalidate the scenario in which green wave 5 completes near this area (refer to the weekly plan). Therefore, if: D1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal at today’s close, and The upcoming H4 rebound fails to break above 4353, → We must be prepared for the scenario in which purple wave Y on the D1 timeframe has already begun. 4. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4261 – 4259 Stop Loss: 4240 Take Profit 1: 4286 Take Profit 2: 4319 Take Profit 3: 4365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold Looks Prime for All-Time High Breakout📈 Technical Analysis of the Chart The chart shows XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) moving in what appears to be an upward-sloping channel — higher lows are marked by trend-line support. Price recently revisited the lower boundary (support zone + trendline) and appears to have held firm — a bullish signal (i.e. a “retest & bounce”). The annotation “POI” (Point of Interest) near that bounce suggests a probable pivot from support → initiating the next leg up. On the upside, the chart projects a move toward a new all-time high (ATH) — the red horizontal line — implying a breakout of the current consolidation zone. If gold breaks above current resistance and stays above the channel’s upper boundary, that increase could accelerate with bullish momentum. This aligns with typical breakout + retest strategies often used in gold trading. Conversely, if price fails to hold this support zone and drops below the trendline, the bullish setup would be invalidated — a risk to watch, especially if sentiment shifts. Technical conclusion: The chart shows a classic channel-retest setup — if upward momentum continues, a move toward the all-time high is well justified. The current bounce from support provides a favorable entry setup for bulls, with manageable risk if a stop-loss is set just below the channel support. 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Context Gold’s recent strength is driven by expectations of lower interest rates: as a non-yielding asset, gold tends to benefit when rates fall because the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases. A weaker U.S. dollar — often accompanying potential rate cuts — makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, adding further demand support. Broad economic context: unsteady global growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising demand for safe-haven assets help maintain strong gold demand. Market forecasts remain bullish: some analysts see gold reaching as high as $4,950/oz by 2026, with a more likely base-case target around $4,500/oz — assuming rate cuts and continued macroeconomic uncertainty. That said, the key risk remains in a potential rebound of the U.S. Dollar or abrupt shift in monetary policy (e.g. fewer rate cuts than expected) — either could undercut gold’s rally. Fundamental conclusion: The macro backdrop — rate-cut expectations, weak USD, and global uncertainty — strongly supports a continuation of gold’s upward trajectory. If these tailwinds persist, gold’s push toward new highs is fundamentally justified. ✅ What This Setup Means & What to Watch If bullish scenario plays out Expect price to challenge the all-time high. A breakout may target or even exceed prior ATHs. A bounce-and-run scenario may attract momentum traders, fueling further upside. Key triggers to monitor Keep an eye on announcements from Federal Reserve: rate-cut decisions or dovish signals accelerate gold demand. Watch USD strength: a strong dollar could cap gains or reverse the uptrend. Monitor global risk sentiment — geopolitical events or economic slowdown fears tend to push money into gold. Risk control considerations Use the channel support / trendline as a stop-loss anchor. A breakdown below could invalidate the bullish bias. Consider that strong moves in the dollar or surprising inflation data might compress gold’s upside or spark a pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KingProTrader
3
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – Week 3 of December 2025 1. Momentum Weekly (W1): Weekly momentum is approaching the overbought zone. There is a high probability that in the coming week, W1 momentum will enter the overbought area and start showing signs of a bearish reversal. Daily (D1): D1 momentum is currently in the overbought zone and preparing to turn down. We need confirmation from a clear bearish D1 candle. Once confirmed, the market is likely to enter a corrective move lasting approximately 4–5 days. H4: H4 momentum has already turned bearish. However, it still needs around 2–3 more H4 candles to reach the oversold zone, indicating that short-term downside momentum remains intact. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Weekly Timeframe (W1) On the weekly chart, wave X (purple) appears to be in its final phase. Price is currently trading near the base of wave W, suggesting a high probability that this structure is forming a flat correction. Key characteristics of a flat pattern: - Price can retrace back to the origin of wave W. - It may even exceed the W low/high and create a marginal new extreme. - However, this breakout is typically limited before price reverses to complete wave Y. In the current context, weekly momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. Therefore, the possibility of one final upward push in wave X cannot be ruled out before a larger decline begins. Daily Timeframe (D1) On the daily chart, wave X (purple) is developing as an ABC structure. At present: - The red wave C has already completed a 5-wave internal structure. - Price is now trading within the green wave 5 of wave C. With D1 momentum already in the overbought zone, there is a high probability that green wave 5 is nearing completion. Once this wave ends, price is expected to decline to form wave Y. However, an important caution remains: - D1 momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. - Therefore, attempting to catch the exact top of wave X carries risk. - As discussed on the weekly timeframe, flat corrections can allow price to equal or slightly exceed the wave W level before reversing. H4 Timeframe Looking more closely at the H4 structure: - The 5-wave sequence (1–2–3–4–5 in green) within the red wave C has completed. - Wave 5 reached its projected target near 4334, after which price started to decline sharply. H4 momentum still requires 2–3 candles to reach oversold conditions, suggesting: - The current bearish leg still has room to extend. - The most probable scenario is a continuation lower toward the POC zone (green line) around 4215 – 4187, followed by a corrective bounce. If this scenario unfolds: - The current decline is likely forming wave 1 down of a new 5-wave structure for wave Y. - The subsequent recovery would be wave 2, typically unfolding as an ABC corrective move. - This wave 2 rally would provide a high-probability sell opportunity, especially if H4 momentum rebounds into the overbought zone again. 3. Key Notes & Risk Awareness One critical point to emphasize: - Weekly momentum is preparing to enter the overbought zone and potentially reverse. - Daily momentum is already overbought. - This momentum confluence suggests that the coming decline could be more extended, aiming to push weekly momentum back toward oversold conditions. In practice, weekly momentum often requires multiple oscillations (commonly around three reversals) to complete a full corrective cycle. Therefore: - Patience is essential during this phase. - Avoid prematurely adopting a long-term bullish bias. - Always wait for price action confirmation. This analysis represents a directional warning and scenario planning only. All expectations must be confirmed by real-time price behavior. 4. Conclusion For the upcoming week, the primary bias favors a bearish corrective phase. Detailed trading plans (entries, stop loss, and targets) will be updated daily as new price data becomes available.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
2
Gold (XAU/USD) 30-Minute: Liquidity Grab Setup with Order Block1. Current Price Structure Price is trending upward on the 30-min timeframe. Recent candles show higher highs and higher lows, indicating short-term bullish pressure. 2. Liquidity Zone & Order Block The grey shaded area marked as “liquidity + orderblock” is a confluence zone where stops and institutional orders are likely clustered. Expect price to revisit this area for a shake-out of weak hands before moving higher. The up arrow suggests that this zone could act as a launchpad for the next bullish leg. 3. Potential Pullback and Continuation The scrawled black path shows a probable scenario: Minor pullback to liquidity/order block area Support test on the trendline or zone Followed by a rejection and bullish continuation 4. Key Indicators EMA 9 (blue) is below current price — supports short-term bullish momentum. Ichimoku cloud is mostly supportive, with price above key lines (suggests trend stamina). 5. Resistance Ahead The horizontal red zone near ~4,353 to 4,382 is a major supply area. A breakout above this would confirm bullish continuation. However, failure there could lead to deeper pullbacks. 🔥 Summary Bias Bullish (higher probability setup) Price is likely to: Pull back to the support or order block area Grab liquidity Rally toward or above the resistance zone 🎯 Key Levels to Watch Level Significance ~4,353 – 4,382 Major resistance / breakout target Order Block Zone Liquidity grab & support Trendline (rising) Dynamic support EMA 9 Short-term support
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KingProTrader
4
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD 12 12 2025 1. Momentum D1: Daily momentum has already entered the overbought zone, indicating that the strength of the current upward cycle is weakening. If D1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal, it may signal the completion of this entire upward phase. H4: H4 momentum has converged tightly, which also reflects a loss of bullish strength. We need to wait for a bearish candle to confirm a momentum reversal on this timeframe. H1: H1 momentum is preparing to turn upward from the oversold zone, suggesting a short-term upward swing may appear first on the H1 timeframe. 2. Wave Structure D1: With D1 momentum now in the overbought zone and price approaching our projected targets, the green wave C is likely nearing completion. Once wave C finishes, the purple wave X will also complete. When D1 momentum confirms a reversal, that level will likely become the wave X top, followed by a decline into the purple wave Y. H4: Price broke above yesterday’s high, which increases the probability that wave 4 has already completed. After wave 4 completes, the market continues higher into wave 5 (green). The projected target for wave 5 is around 4334. H1: The corrective structure appears to have formed a triangle (abcde) for the green wave 4. In the current advance, price is developing a 5-wave sequence in red, and we are currently in red wave 3. Inside red wave 3, a smaller 5-wave black structure is unfolding, and the market is now correcting within black wave 4. Red wave 3 target: around 4311 Black wave 4 shows characteristics of a flat correction, with a target near 4260 However, H4 momentum is tightly compressed — something I do not prefer, because this condition often carries the risk of a momentum reversal. If H4 confirms a bearish momentum turn, the market could produce a decline lasting roughly 4–5 H4 candles, pushing price deeper. For now, the upward momentum from H1 is still supportive. 3. Trading Plan I select the 4260 area as the preferred buy zone to trade upward into black wave 5, targeting 4311. One important note: if green wave 4 is indeed a triangle as labeled, then green wave 5 can accelerate very quickly. After that, a reversal is likely, because triangles typically appear right before the end of a larger trend. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4261 – 4259 SL: 4248 TP1: 4292 TP2: 4311
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
ChumTrades XAUUSD intraday outlookXAUUSD – Intraday Plan (M15) Market Context Price is currently ranging in a very tight consolidation. Momentum is weak → market favors intraday range trading rather than chasing breakouts. Short-term structure remains intact; focus on price reaction at key levels. Daily Strategy Main approach: trade the range, trade the reaction. Buy at predefined support / Fibonacci zones, sell at clear resistance. If a breakout occurs, wait for a retest before following the move. Avoid entries in the middle of the range. Key Buy Zones 4246 – 4244 (Fibo 0.5) 4236 – 4233 (Fibo 0.618) 4210 – 4208 (deep support reaction) ❌ Bullish structure invalidation: M15 close below 4200 Key Sell Zones 4300 – 4305 (psychological resistance) 4310 (Fibonacci extension – reaction sell) Special Notes (Friday) No major economic news today, but it is Friday – end of week. Price action may become choppy and unpredictable, especially during the US session (a pattern seen in recent weeks). Risk management is key: Focus on short-term trades Take profits early Avoid holding positions over the weekend Good luck Bro !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 11, 2025 1. Momentum D1: D1 momentum continues to rise, suggesting that the upward move is likely to extend until momentum reaches the overbought zone and begins to turn downward. H4: H4 momentum is currently rising, but the strong bearish H4 candle is causing momentum to contract. We need to wait for the current H4 candle to close to confirm the next momentum signal. H1: H1 momentum is declining, indicating the possibility of continued short-term downside movement. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure D1: The D1 wave structure remains unchanged. Price continues to unfold within the green wave C. Previous analyses can be referenced for detailed D1 structural scenarios. H4: Price tested the VAH zone at 4245 and rejected downward toward the POC (green line). It is currently holding at this support area. Although price has broken above the POC—a positive early signal for a potential bullish continuation—price has not yet escaped the VAH zone, meaning the strength of a new uptrend is still unconfirmed. A key condition is that price must break above 4245 to reinforce the bullish scenario. H1: Price has corrected below 4221—the assumed wave 1 high from yesterday—thereby invalidating the 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive count for a new uptrend. As a result, the more appropriate structure is a contracting triangle abcde. In a triangle, each leg consists of corrective three-wave structures. Therefore, the current decline could develop into a zigzag, flat, or smaller triangle. We need further price action to distinguish these patterns. For now, I am temporarily monitoring the zigzag scenario as the working model. ________________________________________ 3. Key Price Levels & Expected Targets On the H4 chart, price is approaching the POC. If price breaks above the POC and then retests it, this zone will act as strong support and may generate a bullish reaction. This is the reason I am temporarily using the zigzag structure as the primary observation model. The projected completion zone for wave e of the triangle is located near the lower boundary of the pattern. When aligned with Fibonacci confluence and liquidity zones, two key target areas emerge: • 4200 • 4187 At this stage, the market is only forming wave A of the decline. We will wait for the wave B retracement. Once wave B develops, the market will provide clearer data to pinpoint the exact target region for wave C. ________________________________________ 4. Trading Plan For now, we wait for the wave B pullback. Once the corrective bounce completes, I will define the precise target zones and provide an updated trade plan.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
“Support Bounce → Bullish Continuation Toward 4,245🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bullish Rejection from Support & Breakout Potential 🚀📈 🔍 Key Technical Analysis Price respected the Support Level (4,185 – 4,190) and bounced strongly ✔️ Price is currently following an ascending Support Line → bullish structure intact 📈 Previous liquidity sweep (POI Points) shows buyers absorbing sell pressure 💰 Multiple breakouts indicate strong bullish momentum returning 🔥 Current consolidation suggests accumulation before next move up 🎯 Suggested Targets (with stickers) Target Type Price Range Sticker TP1 → Breakout Target 4,235 – 4,245 🎯 TP2 → Upper Expansion Zone 4,255 – 4,265 🚀💸 📌 TP1 = High-probability target 📌 TP2 = If bullish momentum continues strongly 📌 Trade Idea (Based on Chart Structure) 🟩 Buy Entry Zone: ➤ 4,195 – 4,205 🟢 Take Profit: ➤ TP1: 4,240 🎯 ➤ TP2: 4,260 🚀 🧭 Market Outlook Factor Bias Trend Bullish above support ✔️ Liquidity Upside liquidity open 💧 Momentum Strengthening 📈
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pipshunter27
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 10, 2025 1. Momentum D1: The D1 momentum has already turned upward. Therefore, we expect an upward move on the daily timeframe lasting through the end of this week to complete the green wave C. H4: H4 momentum is currently turning down. If the current H4 candle closes confirming this downward signal, the market is likely to form a short-term H4 decline. H1: H1 momentum is still rising but is starting to contract and show signs of a bearish reversal. The most recent strong bearish candle with wide downside range indicates that the next downward swing may begin from the H1 timeframe. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure D1: The D1 wave structure has not changed from the previous plan. Price is still progressing within the green wave C. When the green wave C completes, the purple wave X will also complete, followed by a decline forming wave Y. With D1 momentum turning upward, our expected targets for the purple wave C remain 4329 or 4336. H4: Yesterday, price touched the projected target area at 4167 and then bounced back to the POC zone, as anticipated. The current bearish reversal on H4 momentum is critical: • If price can remain above 4187 while H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone and then reverses upward, we may see the formation of a 5-wave green structure, which would be an early signal that the corrective wave (4) has completed. • If price fails to hold above 4187 while H4 momentum continues downward, the green wave (4) may extend further. H1: Yesterday’s decline toward the 4168 target strengthens the expectation that wave (C) of the black flat structure (A)-(B)-(C) has completed, meaning green wave (4) may also be complete. Price then rallied toward the POC at 4215, which we expect to be wave 1. The current decline shows a 3-wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) in red, which we expect to be wave 2. The projected completion zones for wave 2 (the end of red wave (C)) are: • Equal to wave (A): 4197 • 1.618 × wave (A): 4187 From the H4 Volume Profile: • The two key levels discussed yesterday were POC 4215 and the liquidity boundary at 4187. • With H4 momentum now turning down and price reacting to POC from below, selling pressure remains dominant. • Level 4187 acts as the liquidity boundary—if buyers can defend this level, a breakout above 4215 becomes likely. • If 4187 does not hold while H4 momentum moves into oversold, the green wave (4) could still be ongoing. ________________________________________ 3. Trading Plan We will look to capture the end of wave 2. Since the two target zones (4197 and 4187) are close to each other, the best approach is to wait for price to reach these areas and observe the reaction before entering. If placing a limit order, I prefer the upper zone with a slightly wider stop. BUY ZONE: 4198 – 4196 SL: 4177 TP1: 4218 TP2: 4245 TP3: 4329
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD Bullish Reversal Setup Toward 4252 – Smart Money StructurChart Analysis 1. Market Structure Price previously formed a strong swing high near 4252, marked with the red circle. After that, the market corrected downward and consolidated in a sideways range (highlighted box). Price has since broken out of that range and is now retesting the breakout zone. 2. Current Zone Price is hovering around 4198–4200, which appears to be: A support retest level A higher-low formation, indicating bullish intent 3. Bullish Expectation Your arrows and markup suggest: A small pullback Followed by a bullish move toward: First target: ~4219 Main target: 4252, the previous liquidity grab area This aligns with: Break of structure (BOS) Imbalance fill Smart money concepts (liquidity resting at prior highs) 4. Stop Loss SL marked near 4180 This sits below the retest zone and protected liquidity — a logical invalidation area. 5. Overall Bias Bullish, with expectation of: Retest → Higher-low → Move toward major liquidity at previous highs
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
XAUUSD/GOLD JOLTS Job Openings News Projection 09.12.25Main Idea Gold is currently ranging between 4,191 – 4,210 zones. During JOLTS news volatility, price may either break upward or break downward from this zone. Your plan is a breakout + retest entry with a 1:3 Risk–Reward Ratio. 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup) Conditions to Buy: Price breaks above 4,210 zone Retests the same zone and holds as support Enter after bullish confirmation Target: 4,250 zone Stoploss: Below 4,191 zone 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup) Conditions to Sell: Price breaks below 4,191 zone Retests the level as resistance Enter after bearish confirmation Target: 4,163 zone Stoploss: Above 4,210 zone 🎯 Risk–Reward Ratio: 1:3 Both setups aim for a low-risk and high-reward breakout trade using news momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by kripsonfx97
3