GOLD STUCK IN A RUT - A MAJOR CORRECTION LIKELY? POSITIONAL VIEWSymbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 2907
Gold is currently consolidating and trading sideways within a defined support zone of 2892 and resistance at 2921. The metal is showing no signs of further growth as it remains stuck within this range. While there has been an aggressive sell-off in the US dollar, a typical scenario that would support gold, the precious metal has failed to show any upward momentum, suggesting a lack of bullish sentiment in the market.
From a technical perspective, the larger time frames indicate strong resistance levels at 2921, 2942 and 2954. These levels are acting as significant barriers to any substantial upward movement, and it appears that gold is attempting to make lower lows in its price action - A bearish indication in the current trend. This behavior supports the notion that the market may be gearing up for further downward pressure.
Furthermore, there is an expectation of a rebound in the US dollar from its current level around 104. Such a rebound would exert additional downward pressure on gold, reinforcing the ongoing bearish structure. Market participants are also anticipating the upcoming NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data release, which could have a significant impact on the trajectory of the dollar, gold and, by extension, Fed policy. Should the data point toward a stronger labor market, it could trigger a rally in the dollar, further dampening gold's potential upside.
Despite the weaker dollar and expectations of potential Fed policy easing, gold has struggled to capitalize on these factors, likely due to the pause in Trump's tariff measures. The absence of significant external catalysts for growth means gold remains largely range-bound. If the bearish structure continues, a larger correction toward the 2800 levels could be on the horizon positionally.
However, if gold manages to break through the resistance zone at 2921 and move upward due to any unexpected news, there is potential for a rise towards the 2960 and even 3000 levels. That said, this scenario seems less likely given the current market conditions, with the overall outlook remaining tilted towards further downside.
Key Support Levels: 2892, 2881
Key Resistance Levels: 2921, 2942, 2954,
Overall, the market remains in a corrective phase, with the risk of further downside outweighing the chances of a breakout to the upside unless significant catalysts arise.
