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Xauusdlong

700 pip downside move in goldOne of the largest moves caused by the unexpected US inflation data has been in gold. Gold has finally broken through the monumentally important support level of $1,680 and has pushed all the way down to ~$1,660/oz. Gold achieved this huge break to the downside in one four-hour period. Before this, gold was already feeling the downside pressure, experiencing a drop from ~$1,730 to ~$1,700 in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s US inflation data. Total movement to the downside in gold since Tuesday now sits at around 700 pips. Gold weakness is being driven by the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will enact a greater-than-expected interest rate hike next week. The markets are currently pricing in the 30% chance that the Fed delivers a 100-basis-points rate hike. For one, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is calling for a 1% hike. The markets are now pricing in a 30% chance of a 75-basis-points hike because US inflation subsided less than expected (8.3% vs 8.1% expected) on Tuesday. However, the worst data point is the 0.1% increase in core CPI (excludes volatile energy and food prices), a shocking result after the markets got used to the idea that inflation (in all its measurements) had peaked.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD ANALYSIS OVER H4 CHART.Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD eyes $1,750 on the road to recovery Gold price is reversing an early dip but remains cautious at the start of the critical Fed week. The rebound in the US dollar from over two-week lows capped the bullion’s ongoing recovery momentum. The greenback climbed on the back of renewed risk-off flows, triggered by a revival of recession fears, as the Fed remains on track to hike rates by 75 bps to control inflation. Investors remain worried over a potential negative US GDP print in the second quarter, which would tip the world’s largest economy into a technical recession. The bright metal extended its recovery from 11-month lows and hit fresh weekly highs at $1,739 on Friday, tracking the slump in the US Treasury yields, as growth and inflation worries sapped investors’ confidence and boosted the safe-haven flows into the government bonds. Above 100 SMA, bulls will aim for the horizontal targets aligned at $1,745 and $1,752. After spotting a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the four-hour chart on Wednesday, gold price extended the downside and hit the pattern target measured at $1,781. On the flip side, if bears take out strong support around $1,713, the confluence zone of the 21 and 50 SMAs, then a drop towards the $1,700 mark cannot be ruled out. The multi-month troughs of 1,681 will be back on XAU sellers’ radars.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by charliedavies770
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