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USDJPY slumps to seven-month low amid risk aversion, BoJ biasUSDJPY begins the week on a back foot while declining for the fifth consecutive day to the lowest since early January. The Yen pair’s latest fall could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood and concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) further rate hikes versus the fresh bias about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) requirement for more rate cuts. Also keeping the bears hopeful is the quote’s clear downside break of an upward-sloping support line from January 2023. With this, USDJPY bears are completely in control and can move further toward the late 2023 bottom of around 140.25, quickly followed by the 140.00 threshold. However, the oversold RSI (14) line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s January 2023 to July 2024 upside, near 140.40, can challenge the quote’s further declines. If the pair drops past 140.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward July 2023 low of near 137.20 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from a 50% Fibonacci ratio of 144.55. Following that, the lows marked during February and March of the current year, respectively near 145.90 and 146.50, will precede the multi-month-old support-turned-resistance of surrounding 148.60 to challenge the Yen pair buyers. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the rejection of the latest bearish trend signals will only be possible if the quote stays successfully above the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.60. Overall, the USDJPY pair sneaked into the bearish trend but the road toward the south is long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Starmer - Lessons for India from UKIndian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position. This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our correct economic policies of the last decade - including a once in a century pandemic - against the global backdrop
TVC:GB10Y
by MBIPL
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US. It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebound appears elusive below 155.70USDJPY bounces off a one-month low to snap a three-day winning streak early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of its March-April upside amid a nearly oversold RSI. Given the receding bearish strength of the MACD signals and the quote’s rebound from the key Fibonacci ratio, as well as the RSI (14) line’s recovery from the oversold territory, the latest run-up in price is likely to prevail for a bit. The same highlights the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 155.00 for short-term buyers. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA, a two-month-old previous support line, and a downward-sloping resistance line from April 29, around 155.60-70, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Following that, the pair’s gradual rise toward the monthly high of nearly 158.00 and then to the recent multi-year peak surrounding 160.00 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci ratio put a short-term floor under the USDJPY pair at around 153.30. In a case where the sellers keep control past the 153.30 support confluence, the Yen pair bears could again jostle with the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 151.70, also known as the Golden Fibonacci ratio. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 151.70 will make it vulnerable to revisit the lows marked in March near 146.50. During the fall, the 150.00 threshold and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 149.40 can act as intermediate halts. USDJPY is likely to extend the latest corrective bounce, especially amid the Japanese holiday, but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY hovers around multi-year high as bulls run out of steamUSDJPY edges higher past 154.00 while making rounds to the 34-year top marked the previous day, mildly bid within a four-month-old rising trend channel early Tuesday. In doing so, Yen pair buyers take a breather at the multi-year high as the overbought RSI (14) line joins sluggish market conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a 6.5-month-old ascending resistance line, now support around 151.85, keep the bulls in the driver's seat. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s December-March moves and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 153.05 and 152.00, restrict the quote’s immediate downside. Following that, a two-month-old horizontal support zone near 150.90-80 and the aforementioned bullish channel’s support line, close to 149.60 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the pair buyers, a successful break of which could give control to the bears. Meanwhile, the 78.6% FE level surrounding 154.85 guards the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair ahead of the multi-month-old rising trend channel’s top line, near 155.20 as we write. It’s worth mentioning that the Yen pair’s sustained run-up beyond 155.20 will need validation from the June 1990 peak of 155.80 to keep the bulls in control. Following that, the pair’s gradual advances toward the 100% FE level of 157.15 can’t be ruled out. That said, the 156.00 and the 157.00 round figures will act as intermediate halts during the rise. Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers appear exhausted, suggesting a pullback in the prices, but the broadly bullish trend is likely to remain intact unless the quote breaks the 149.60 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY jumps 100 pips even as BoJ exits negative-rate policyUSDJPY refreshes a two-week high during a six-day uptrend even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) takes a historical decision to end the Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), as well as the Yield Curve Control (YCC). It’s worth noting, however, that such a move was widely anticipated and hence, a “sell the fact” reaction appeared on the chart. However, a three-week-old falling resistance line surrounding the 150.00 psychological magnet and the overbought RSI (14) conditions seem to challenge the Yen pair buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the 150.00 hurdle, a slightly downward-sloping trend line from mid-February, near 150.80 at the latest, quickly followed by the 151.00 round figure, will challenge the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s pullback appears widely expected and hence the short-term sellers can aim for the 149.20-15 support confluence comprising the 100 and 200 SMAs. However, a one-week-old rising support line surrounding 148.85 could test the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the bears keep the reins past 148.85, the February 07 swing low of around 147.60 and the current monthly bottom of 146.48 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the USDJPY pair’s immediate reaction to the BoJ’s decision appears less logical and is likely to be reversed. However, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision will be the key in determining the same.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY probes four-day losing streak despite upbeat Japan GDPUSDJPY seesaws at the lowest level in five weeks as bulls and bears jostle after the biggest weekly loss in eight months. In doing so, the Yen pair fails to justify better-than-previous Japanese GDP while challenging the four-day losing streak. That said, the oversold RSI (14) conditions and the 200-SMA support of near 146.30-25 also challenge the quote’s further downside. Following that, the mid-2023 peak of around 145.00 could act as an intermediate halt before directing the bears toward the late 2023 bottom of 140.25. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s rebound needs validation from the 100-SMA level of 147.60, as well as the support-turned-resistance line stretched from early January, close to 148.80 at the latest. However, the 150.00 threshold and multiple tops surrounding 151.00 could check the Yen pair buyers afterward. Also acting as the upside filter is the previous yearly high of 151.90 and a one-year-old previous support line, now resistance around 152.80. Overall, the USDJPY pair’s sustained trading beneath the key technical supports, now resistances, join the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful. However, the oversold RSI and nearness to the 200-SMA might challenge the quote’s short-term downside.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls struggle but bears need validation from 149.00USDJPY reverses the first weekly loss in five while printing mild gains around 150.50 early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair seesaws near a three-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 150.90-151.00. It’s worth noting that the lackluster RSI and sluggish MACD signals suggest further grinding of the quote below the stated key resistance. The bearish momentum, however, appears less likely until the prices stay beyond a convergence of the 200-SMA and a two-month-long rising support line, close to 149.00. Apart from the 149.00 support confluence, January’s high of near 148.80 will also try to challenge the Yen pair sellers before giving them control. Meanwhile, an upside break of the 150.90-151.00 resistance region will allow the USDJPY buyers to aim for the double tops marked during late 2022 and 2023 near 152.00. It should be observed that the Yen pair’s run-up beyond the 152.00 hurdle highlights the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990 peak of around 160.40 for the bulls. In that case, the overbought RSI line and likely adjustments in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy will challenge the pair’s further upside. Overall, the USDJPY pair’s upside momentum runs out of steam but the bearish move is yet to gain acceptance and hence needs validation from the key support of near 149.00, as well as the US/Japan fundamental catalysts scheduled for publishing during this week.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls lack momentum as US, Japan inflation clues loomUSDJPY rose in the last four consecutive weeks even if the US Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a five-week uptrend, amid an increase in the near-term US Treasury bond yields and chatters about a delay in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) delay in ending the ultra lose monetary policy. It’s worth noting, however, that the technical signals are against the Yen pair buyers as the nearly overbought RSI (14) line joins the bearish MACD conditions. Also challenging the upside momentum is the quote’s retreat from a week-old horizontal resistance around 150.80. Even if the pair crosses the immediate upside hurdle, he previous yearly high of 151.90 and an ascending resistance line from late December 2023, forming part of a rising wedge bearish chart formation near 153.80, will be tough nuts to crack for the bulls. On the contrary, the USDJPY pair’s pullback remains elusive unless the price stays above the lower line of a 10-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation’s bottom line, close to 149.80 at the latest. Following that, a quick fall to January’s top surrounding 148.80 can’t be ruled out. However, the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) will test the Yen pair bears near 147.10 and 145.00 respectively before directing the quote toward the theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation, namely around 139.40. It should be It should be observed that the 140.00 threshold and the mid-2023 swing low of near 137.25 act as additional downside filters to watch. Overall, the USDJPY pair lacks upside momentum but the bears need confirmation from the short-term rising wedge chart formation before taking control. Also important are the initial inflation clues from Japan and the US.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY recovers within two-month-old rising wedgeUSDJPY snaps a two-day losing streak early Friday while challenging the previous day’s rising wedge bearish chart pattern’s confirmation. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies an upbeat RSI (14) line, as well as an impending bull cross on the MACD. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of 150.50 support-turned-resistance becomes necessary to defy the downside signals. Following that, an ascending trend line from January 31, also forming part of a short-term rising wedge near 151.70, will lure the bulls. It’s worth noting that the upper line of a broader rising wedge, close to 152.40 at the latest, appears the last defense of the pair sellers before directing the quote toward the June 1990 swing high of around 155.80. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s failure to cross the 150.50 immediate upside hurdle will drag it back below the 150.00 threshold. In that case, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line surrounding 148.40 will be a crucial level to watch for the pair sellers as a clear break of that will open doors for a theoretical fall toward 137.90. During the fall, the 200-SMA level of 147.00, monthly low of near 145.90 and December’s trough surrounding 140.25 will act as intermediate halts. Overall, USDJPY remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest recovery move.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY portrays bullish consolidation, further downside expectedOn Tuesday, the USDJPY pair snapped a two-day winning streak while reversing from a 13-day-old horizontal resistance surrounding 148.80-90. The pullback move also justifies the upbeat RSI and bearish MACD signals. With this, the Yen pair is likely to decline further toward the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of nearly 146.60. However, the 100-EMA of 146.20 and the monthly low of 145.90 will challenge the sellers afterward, suggesting another U-turn in the price. In doing so, the quote manages a fortnight-long trading range that consolidates the pair’s gains marked since late December. Meanwhile, USDJPY buyers remain off the table unless they witness a daily closing beyond the aforementioned horizontal resistance of around 148.80-90. Even so, the late November 2023 swing high of around 149.80 and the 150.00 threshold will test the Yen pair’s upside moves. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 150.00, the odds of witnessing the quote’s run-up toward the previous yearly high of around 151.90 can’t be ignored. Overall, USDJPY remains in the bullish consolidation mode and hence likely witnessing further downside. However, the yields and the US Dollar moves are telling a different story and may test the sellers, which in turn requires caution on the part of the pair traders.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY lures bears as FOMC, NFP week beginsUSDJPY makes rounds to 148.00 early Monday as the key week comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the US employment report begins. That said, the Yen pain snapped a three-week uptrend in the last while fading the bounce within a three-week-old triangle. While the hawkish hopes from the Fed and likely firmer prints of the US job numbers seem to tease the US Dollar bulls, hopes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from ultra-easy policy and positioning for the US data/events lure sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line, respectively near 147.50 and 147.35, could test the bears before welcoming them. Even so, the 200-EMA level of around 146.10, quickly followed by the 146.00 round figure, will act as the final defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 148.50 guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair. Following that, the previously stated triangle’s top line, near 149.30 by the press time, will be important to watch for the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Yen pair buyers keep the reins past 149.30, the 150.00 threshold and November’s peak of around 151.90 are likely to gain the market’s attention. Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers lack momentum as the top-tier US data/events loom.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY extends pullback from key EMA confluence below 144.00USDJPY drops half a percent to 143.55 during the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair extends Friday’s retreats from a convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-EMA. Adding strength to the downside pressure is the Doji candlestick on the top and the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line, not to forget the sluggish MACD. With this, the sellers appear set to approach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-November upside, near 142.90. Following that, the previous monthly low and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 140.40 and the 140.00 threshold will challenge the bears before directing them to the mid-2023 bottom surrounding 137.35. On the flip side, the aforementioned EMA convergence stops the USDJPY buyers’ entry near 145.50-60. Also acting as a short-term upside filter is the stated Doji candlestick’s peak of around 146.00. In a case where the Yen pair manages to stay firmer past 146.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of near 148.40 will act as the final defense of the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct buyers toward the previous yearly peak of 151.90. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to extend the latest downside, at least until Wednesday’s US inflation data comes out.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY defends falling wedge breakout above 143.00USDJPY remains dicey around 143.30 as traders await the key US employment clues early Thursday, after rising in the last two consecutive days. In doing so, the Yen pair floats above the 100-SMA while keeping the early week’s confirmation of a bullish chart formation, namely the falling wedge. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI and cautious mood ahead of the key US data could have stopped the pair buyers. However, the falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals join the 100-SMA breakout to suggest the quote’s further advances toward the mid-December swing high of around 145.00. Following that, the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding the 145.50 will be the last defense of the pair bears before giving to the bull, who in turn could aim for November’s bottom of nearly 146.70. Meanwhile, intraday selling can be witnessed on a downside break of the 100-SMA, close to the 143.00 threshold. In that case, the aforementioned wedge’s top line, around 141.20, will gain the USDJPY seller’s attention. Following that, the recent bottom of 140.25, the 140.00 psychological magnet and the wedge’s bottom line near 139.90 will act as the final stops for the bears before allowing them to aim for the late July swing low of around 138.00. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to reverse the late 2023 fall but the recovery needs validation from the US data and the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
Rupee best performer 2023. 2024 looks even better.Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%. Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian equity investors. If you are not in India - You are missing the biggest global party!
TVC:IN10Y
by MBIPL
USDJPY stays pressured toward 141.00 on last trading day of 2023USDJPY fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a five-month low amid sluggish markets on the final trading day of 2023. In doing so, the Yen pair extends the mid-week pullback from 200-SMA even as the oversold RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals challenge bears. Also putting a floor under the risk-barometer pair is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-November upside, as well as May’s peak, surrounding 140.80. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading below 140.80 makes it vulnerable to drop toward a broad horizontal support zone comprising levels marked since early March, between 137.90-70. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce could aim for the 200-SMA level of 143.00 whereas a seven-week-old descending trend line, close to 143.40 at the latest, will test the USDJPY buyers afterwards. Should the Yen pair manage to defend the recovery moves past 143.40, June’s peak of around 145.10 will be on the bull’s radar. Following that, a gradual run-up toward 148.00 and the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY pair appears bearish even if a corrective bounce appears imminent.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD gyrates within bullish pennantEURUSD seesaws within a week-long bullish pennant formation, bracing for the second weekly gain, as markets await this week’s key US data. Not only the bullish pennant but the bullish crossover of the 50-SMA to the 100-SMA also keeps the Euro buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD fail to inspire the pair bulls. As a result, a fresh long position can wait until the quote confirms the bullish chart pattern by crossing the 1.0980 immediate hurdle. To make matters more clear, in case of big positions, the buyers should seek the pair’s successful trading beyond the 1.1010-20 resistance area. Following that, a run-up toward 1.1100 will be imminent before highlighting the yearly peak of 1.1275 for the bulls. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s downside break of 1.0920 support will defy the bullish pennant and can drag the prices toward the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.0880 and 1.0870. However, an upward-sloping support line from early November, close to 1.0800 by the press time, will be a crucial support to watch for defending the bulls, a break of which will give control to the bears targeting the monthly low of 1.0723 and early November bottom surrounding 1.0650. Overall, the EURUSD remains on the buyer’s radar despite the recent inaction.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls prod 200-EMA resistance after BoJ status quoUSDJPY prints a three-day uptrend while extending the previous week’s recovery from the lowest level since late July after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) defends the current monetary policy. In doing so, the Japanese central bank rules out concerns surrounding its gradual exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy amid a recent increase in inflation. With this, the Yen pair pokes the 200-EMA hurdle, extending recovery from a five-month-old horizontal support. The rebound also justifies the RSI (14) line’s U-turn from the oversold territory, which in turn suggests the quote’s further run-up beyond the key EMA surrounding 143.80. However, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-November, close to 145.30 by the press time, will challenge further advances. In a case where the buyers keep reins past 145.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the monthly high near 148.35 and then toward the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, growing chatters about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts in early 2024 could join the downbeat yields to weigh on the USDJPY pair, which in turn highlights the aforementioned horizontal support region of around 141.50-142.00. Should the Yen pair sellers manage to break the 141.50 support, it can quickly drop to the 140.00 psychological magnet before highlighting July’s low of 137.23 as the key support. Following that, the pair’s bearish trajectory towards the yearly bottom of 127.20 appears a favorite for the bears. Overall, USDJPY regains upside momentum but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA prods USDJPY’s bounce off 4.5-month lowUSDJPY prints mild gains around 142.00 to snap a three-day losing streak at the lowest level since late July. In doing so, the Yen pair portrays a corrective bounce amid oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the bearish MACD signals and the 200-SMA hurdle, at 142.50 by the press time, challenge the quote’s recovery. Even if the pair manages to cross the 142.50 hurdle, a 5.5-month-long horizontal resistance line and a falling trend line from mid-November will test the buyers around 144.00 and 145.85 in that order. It’s worth noting that the previous support line stretched from March 24, surrounding 147.60, acts as the final defense of the Yen pair sellers. Meanwhile, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-November upside, near 140.85, acts as an immediate downside support for the USDJPY pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of around 138.20 to prod the Yen pair sellers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 138.20, July’s bottom of 137.23 appears the final battleground for the bulls before surrendering their weapons to the sellers. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to remain bearish even if the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY extends pullback from 50-SMA despite firmer yieldsAfter multiple failures to cross the 50-SMA hurdle the last week, USDJPY sellers attack the 149.00 round figure amid a sluggish start to the key week comprising US GDP and Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, not to forget Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The pullback move also justifies the bearish MACD signals amid an absence of the oversold RSI (14). With this, the Yen pair is likely to revisit the monthly low of 147.15, marked the last Monday. However, the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from late March, respectively near 146.80 and 146.30, could challenge the risk-barometer pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote breaks the 146.30 level on a daily closing basis, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the five-month-old resistance-turned-support of around mid-143.00s. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 50-SMA hurdle of 149.65 becomes necessary for the USDJPY buyers to retake control. Even so, the 150.00 psychological magnet will play its role in testing the upside momentum. Following that, the monthly horizontal resistance surrounding 151.80 and an upward-sloping resistance line from late June, close to 153.00 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the bears. Overall, the USDJPY is likely to remain weak but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal