ReutersReuters

Latam currencies head for worst monthly performance since August

Key points:
  • Colombia central bank rate decision on tap
  • Mexico economy grows 0.2% in Q1 from previous quarter
  • Brazil's job creation outpaces expectations in March
  • Argentina lower house approves Milei reform bill
  • Latam FX down 0.8%, stocks shed 1.4%

Stocks and currencies in Latin America fell on Tuesday, with both indexes headed for monthly losses as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's interest rate easing path and geopolitical tensions drove a rush to safe-haven assets.

The MSCI index for Latin American currencies (.MILA00000CUS) fell 0.8% and was on track for its worst monthly performance in eight months, while regional stocks (.MILA00000PUS) shed 1.4% by 1442 GMT.

Weighing on emerging market currencies, investors have continually had to dial back expectations for the timing and magnitude of U.S. rate cuts this year after hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

"The pressures working against EM currencies are relentless, as the Fed pulls back from its pivot late last year and the USD proves resilient," said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC.

"It does not help that several EM central banks are cutting their policy rates. Doubts have been lingering for some time that this could play out too fast, calling their actions into question. "

The dollar index DXY rose 0.3%, with all eyes now on the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, when it is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged.

The Mexican peso USDMXN slipped 0.3% against a firm dollar after data showed the South American country's economy posted better-than-expected first-quarter growth versus the previous three months.

Brazil's real USDBRL, Chile's peso USDCLP and Colombia's peso USDCOP shed nearly 1% each against the strengthening dollar.

Investors awaited an interest rate decision by the Colombian central bank later in the day when it is expected to cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points.

On the economic data front, Brazil's creation of formal jobs in March significantly outpaced expectations, while Chile's unemployment rate rose to 8.7% in the quarter through March as expected.

Manufacturing production in Chile fell 2.1% in March on a yearly basis, the country's INE statistics agency said, well below the growth of 4.7% expected, while the Andean nation's copper output was flat.

Bucking regional weakness, Argentina's MerVal IMV jumped 3.2% to hit a record high after its lower house of Congress approved a sweeping economic reform plan proposed by President Javier Milei in an overall vote.

More broadly, emerging market stocks were set to end their third month higher supported by recovery in China stocks, while emerging market currencies (.MIEM00000CUS) were set for a monthly decline.

Local currency emerging market bonds have lost investors 2.2% this month.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1442 GMT:

rtrs

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets EEFS

1046.72

-0.44

MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)

2453.27

-1.42

Brazil Bovespa IBOV

126458.27

-0.7

Mexico IPC ME

57720.40

-0.19

Chile IPSA SP_IPSA

6503.24

-0.72

Argentina MerVal IMV

1349835.38

3.193

Colombia COLCAP (.COLCAP)

1379.21

-0.13

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real (BRBY)

5.1754

-1.18

Mexico peso USDMXN

17.0553

-0.31

Chile peso USDCLP

954.1

-1.32

Colombia peso USDCOP

3895.53

-1.01

Peru sol USDPEN

3.75

-0.85

Argentina peso (interbank) USDARS

876.5000

0.06

Argentina peso (parallel) (ARSB=)

1020

2.45

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