Position Management Intelligence Pro

Position Management Intelligence Pro is a post-entry position management indicator designed to help traders evaluate the quality and risk of an open trade using a structured, rule-based state engine.
This script does not generate buy or sell entries. It analyzes price behavior after entry to classify the trade environment into one of five management states:

1. HOLD
   
2. TRIM
   
3. MOMENTUM FADING
   
4. RISK RISING
   
5. EXIT RISK

Core Concepts Used
The indicator combines four market dimensions:
1. Momentum Quality
Measured using:

• Direction of a fast EMA (20)
  
• Price position relative to the fast EMA
  

Logic:

• Rising EMA + price above EMA → positive momentum
  
• Falling EMA + price below EMA → negative momentum
  

This avoids using oscillators and instead focuses on trend structure.

2. Market Participation (Volume)
Participation is evaluated by comparing current volume to a 20-period volume average:

• Strong participation = volume > 1.3 × average
  
• Weak participation = volume < configurable fraction of average
  

This helps distinguish healthy continuation from low-commitment moves.

3. Volatility Expansion (Risk Detection)
ATR (14) is compared to its own moving average:

• Volatility spike is detected when current ATR exceeds its average by a multiplier depending on trading mode (Intraday / Swing / Positional)
  

This highlights environments where risk is increasing even if price direction has not yet reversed.

4. Effort vs Result (Distribution Risk)
A classical Wyckoff-style concept:

• High volume
  
• Small price change relative to ATR
  

This condition signals potential absorption or distribution, indicating that large participants may be exiting into strength.

State Engine Logic (Simplified)
The script uses deterministic rules to classify each bar:

• EXIT RISK → Effort-vs-result condition detected
  
• RISK RISING → Volatility expansion detected
  
• TRIM → Negative momentum + weak participation
  
• MOMENTUM FADING → Negative momentum only
  
• HOLD → Positive momentum with strong participation
  

Each state is calculated on bar close and does not repaint.

Trading Modes & Risk Profiles
The indicator allows users to adapt the behavior of the risk engine using two configuration layers:

Trading Modes
These adjust how sensitive the system is to volatility expansion based on the intended holding period:

Intraday

• Uses lower ATR thresholds
  
• Detects volatility expansion earlier
  
• Designed for short-term trades where risk changes quickly

Swing

• Balanced volatility sensitivity
  
• Default mode
  
• Suitable for multi-day trades

Positional

• Uses higher ATR thresholds
  
• Filters out short-term noise
  
• Designed for longer holding periods and wider price swings

This affects how aggressively the script flags the RISK RISING state.

Risk Profiles
Risk profiles adjust how the script interprets market participation (volume weakness):

Aggressive

• Tolerates lower volume before flagging weakness
  
• Produces fewer TRIM / warning states

Balanced

• Neutral sensitivity
  
• Default setting

Conservative

• Flags weak participation earlier
  
• Produces earlier warnings during trend deterioration

This influences the detection of momentum weakening and trimming conditions.

Dashboard & Confidence Metric
The dashboard summarizes:

• Trading mode
  
• Risk profile
  
• Current state
  
• State duration
  
• A perception-based “confidence” score
  

The confidence score is not predictive and not a probability. It is a normalized representation of how favorable the current trade environment is based on the above factors.

Intended Use
This indicator is designed to be applied after entering a trade to:

• Detect weakening trends
  
• Identify increasing risk
  
• Highlight distribution conditions
  
• Support partial exits and risk reduction decisions
  

It is not a signal generator and should be used alongside the trader’s own entry strategy.

Disclaimer
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.