RECESSION MONITOR
#DESCRIPTION
The RECCESION MONITOR is an early signaling tool based on bond yield trends to help identify a coming recession early. The US02Y And US10Y Government Bonds, are considered here in relation to bonds with different maturities to identify Contango or Backwardation. As a rule, bonds with short maturities should have lower yields than bonds with long maturities. If this relation is reversed, we are dealing with an inverse yield curve (backwardation). This is a very accurate signal of an impending recession.
The individual indicators and ticker symbols used in the calculation are:
Ticker Symbols
X = US10Y
Y = US03MY, US02Y, US05Y, US07Y, US10Y, US30Y, EFFR, SOFR!
For all of them:
X > Y box is GREEN
X < Y box is RED
#CATEGORY
The indicator serves as the leading indicator.
#MARKETS
The indicator is particularly suitable for stock markets.
#NOTE
The RECESSION MONITOR is not a timing indicator. The indicator only gives an indication of an impending recession. Please check the significance of the indicator in the backtest. Criticism and change requests are welcome.
#DIGGER QUOTES
"When all the boxes are red, we're in a recession. You bet your ass!"
#DESCRIPTION
The RECCESION MONITOR is an early signaling tool based on bond yield trends to help identify a coming recession early. The US02Y And US10Y Government Bonds, are considered here in relation to bonds with different maturities to identify Contango or Backwardation. As a rule, bonds with short maturities should have lower yields than bonds with long maturities. If this relation is reversed, we are dealing with an inverse yield curve (backwardation). This is a very accurate signal of an impending recession.
The individual indicators and ticker symbols used in the calculation are:
Ticker Symbols
X = US10Y
Y = US03MY, US02Y, US05Y, US07Y, US10Y, US30Y, EFFR, SOFR!
For all of them:
X > Y box is GREEN
X < Y box is RED
#CATEGORY
The indicator serves as the leading indicator.
#MARKETS
The indicator is particularly suitable for stock markets.
#NOTE
The RECESSION MONITOR is not a timing indicator. The indicator only gives an indication of an impending recession. Please check the significance of the indicator in the backtest. Criticism and change requests are welcome.
#DIGGER QUOTES
"When all the boxes are red, we're in a recession. You bet your ass!"