Advanced Fractal and Hurst IndicatorAdvanced Fractal and Hurst Indicator (AFHI)
Description:
The Advanced Fractal and Hurst Indicator (AFHI) is a custom technical analysis tool designed to identify market trends and potential reversals by leveraging the concepts of Fractal Dimension and the Hurst Exponent . These advanced mathematical concepts provide insights into the complexity and persistence of price movements, making this indicator a powerful addition to any trader's toolkit.
How It Works:
Fractal Dimension (FD) :
The Fractal Dimension measures the complexity of price movements. A higher Fractal Dimension indicates a more complex, choppy market, while a lower value suggests smoother trends.
The FD is calculated using the log difference of price movements over a specified length.
Hurst Exponent (HE) :
The Hurst Exponent indicates the tendency of a time series to either regress to the mean or cluster in a direction. Values below 0.5 indicate a tendency to revert to the mean (mean-reverting), while values above 0.5 suggest a trending market.
The HE is calculated using the rescaled range method, comparing the range of price movements to the standard deviation.
Composite Indicator :
The Composite Indicator combines the smoothed Fractal Dimension and Hurst Exponent to provide a single value indicating market conditions. This is done by normalizing the FD and HE values and combining them into one metric.
A positive Composite Indicator suggests an uptrend, while a negative value indicates a downtrend.
Smoothing :
Both FD and HE values are smoothed using a simple moving average to reduce noise and provide clearer signals.
Trend Confirmation :
A 50-period moving average (MA) is used to confirm the trend direction. The price being above the MA indicates an uptrend, while below the MA indicates a downtrend.
Background Shading :
The indicator pane is shaded green during uptrend conditions (positive Composite Indicator and price above MA) and red during downtrend conditions (negative Composite Indicator and price below MA).
How Traders Can Use It:
Identifying Trends :
Traders can use the AFHI to identify current market trends. The background shading in the indicator pane provides a visual cue for trend direction, with green indicating an uptrend and red indicating a downtrend.
Trend Confirmation :
The Composite Indicator line, plotted in purple, helps confirm the trend. Positive values suggest a strong uptrend, while negative values indicate a strong downtrend.
Entry and Exit Signals :
Traders can use the transitions of the Composite Indicator and the background shading to time their entry and exit points. For instance, a shift from red to green shading suggests a potential buy opportunity, while a shift from green to red suggests a potential sell opportunity.
Alerts :
The script includes alert conditions that can notify traders when the Composite Indicator signals a new trend direction. Alerts can be set up for both uptrends and downtrends, helping traders stay informed of key market changes.
Strategy Development :
By integrating AFHI into their trading strategies, traders can develop more robust systems that account for market complexity and persistence. The indicator can be used alongside other technical tools to enhance decision-making and improve trade accuracy.
Hurstexponent
Hurst Exponent (Dubuc's variation method)Library "Hurst"
hurst(length, samples, hi, lo)
Estimate the Hurst Exponent using Dubuc's variation method
Parameters:
length : The length of the history window to use. Large values do not cause lag.
samples : The number of scale samples to take within the window. These samples are then used for regression. The minimum value is 2 but 3+ is recommended. Large values give more accurate results but suffer from a performance penalty.
hi : The high value of the series to analyze.
lo : The low value of the series to analyze.
The Hurst Exponent is a measure of fractal dimension, and in the context of time series it may be interpreted as indicating a mean-reverting market if the value is below 0.5 or a trending market if the value is above 0.5. A value of exactly 0.5 corresponds to a random walk.
There are many definitions of fractal dimension and many methods for its estimation. Approaches relying on calculation of an area, such as the Box Counting Method, are inappropriate for time series data, because the units of the x-axis (time) do match the units of the y-axis (price). Other approaches such as Detrended Fluctuation Analysis are useful for nonstationary time series but are not exactly equivalent to the Hurst Exponent.
This library implements Dubuc's variation method for estimating the Hurst Exponent. The technique is insensitive to x-axis units and is therefore useful for time series. It will give slightly different results to DFA, and the two methods should be compared to see which estimator fits your trading objectives best.
Original Paper:
Dubuc B, Quiniou JF, Roques-Carmes C, Tricot C. Evaluating the fractal dimension of profiles. Physical Review A. 1989;39(3):1500-1512. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevA.39.1500
Review of various Hurst Exponent estimators for time-series data, including Dubuc's method:
www.intechopen.com
HurstExponentLibrary "HurstExponent"
Library to calculate Hurst Exponent refactored from Hurst Exponent - Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
demean(src) Calculates a series subtracted from the series mean.
Parameters:
src : The series used to calculate the difference from the mean (e.g. log returns).
Returns: The series subtracted from the series mean
cumsum(src, length) Calculates a cumulated sum from the series.
Parameters:
src : The series used to calculate the cumulative sum (e.g. demeaned log returns).
length : The length used to calculate the cumulative sum (e.g. 100).
Returns: The cumulative sum of the series as an array
aproximateLogScale(scale, length) Calculates an aproximated log scale. Used to save sample size
Parameters:
scale : The scale to aproximate.
length : The length used to aproximate the expected scale.
Returns: The aproximated log scale of the value
rootMeanSum(cumulativeSum, barId, numberOfSegments) Calculates linear trend to determine error between linear trend and cumulative sum
Parameters:
cumulativeSum : The cumulative sum array to regress.
barId : The barId for the slice
numberOfSegments : The total number of segments used for the regression calculation
Returns: The error between linear trend and cumulative sum
averageRootMeanSum(cumulativeSum, barId, length) Calculates the Root Mean Sum Measured for each block (e.g the aproximated log scale)
Parameters:
cumulativeSum : The cumulative sum array to regress and determine the average of.
barId : The barId for the slice
length : The length used for finding the average
Returns: The average root mean sum error of the cumulativeSum
criticalValues(length) Calculates the critical values for a hurst exponent for a given length
Parameters:
length : The length used for finding the average
Returns: The critical value, upper critical value and lower critical value for a hurst exponent
slope(cumulativeSum, length) Calculates the hurst exponent slope measured from root mean sum, scaled to log log plot using linear regression
Parameters:
cumulativeSum : The cumulative sum array to regress and determine the average of.
length : The length used for the hurst exponent sample size
Returns: The slope of the hurst exponent
smooth(src, length) Smooths input using advanced linear regression
Parameters:
src : The series to smooth (e.g. hurst exponent slope)
length : The length used to smooth
Returns: The src smoothed according to the given length
exponent(src, hurstLength) Wrapper function to calculate the hurst exponent slope
Parameters:
src : The series used for returns calculation (e.g. close)
hurstLength : The length used to calculate the hurst exponent (should be greater than 50)
Returns: The src smoothed according to the given length
Hurst ExponentMy first try to implement Full Hurst Exponent.
The Hurst exponent is used as a measure of long-term memory of time series. It relates to the autocorrelations of the time series and the rate at which these decrease as the lag between pairs of values increases
The Hurst exponent is referred to as the "index of dependence" or "index of long-range dependence". It quantifies the relative tendency of a time series either to regress strongly to the mean or to cluster in a direction.
In short, depending on the value you can spot the trending / reversing market.
Values 0.5 to 1 - market trending
Values 0 to 0.5 - market tend to mean revert
Hurst Exponent is computed using Rescaled range (R/S) analysis.
I split the lookback period (N) in the number of shorter samples (for ex. N/2, N/4, N/8, etc.). Then I calculate rescaled range for each sample size.
The Hurst exponent is estimated by fitting the power law. Basically finding the slope of log(samples_size) to log(RS).
You can choose lookback and sample sizes yourself. Max 8 possible at the moment, if you want to use less use 0 in inputs.
It's pretty computational intensive, so I added an input so you can limit from what date you want it to be calculated. If you hit the time limit in PineScript - limit the history you're using for calculations.
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Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Simple Hurst Exponent [QuantNomad]This is a simplified version of the Hurst Exponent indicator.
In the meantime, I'm working on the full version. It's computationally intensive, so it's a challenge to squeeze it to PineScript limits. It will require some time to optimize it, so I decided to publish a simplified version for now.
The Hurst exponent is used as a measure of long-term memory of time series. It relates to the autocorrelations of the time series, and the rate at which these decrease as the lag between pairs of values increases
The Hurst exponent is referred to as the "index of dependence" or "index of long-range dependence". It quantifies the relative tendency of a time series either to regress strongly to the mean or to cluster in a direction.
In short depend on value you can spot trending / reversing market.
Values 0.5 to 1 - market trending
Values 0 to 0.5 - market tend to mean revert
####################
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
[NLX-L2] Hurst Exponent Signal Filter- Hurst Exponent Signal Filter -
The Hurst Exponent Signal Filter is meant to be used with an external signal source, this can be any indicator with a signal plot output (-1 Sell / 1 Buy)
It filters out a lot of noisy signals and improves the performance of many indicators.
- Example: How to Use -
1. Add a trend Indicator like Trend Index MTF to your chart
2. Add an indicator with a signal plot like Fishers Stochastic Center of Gravity to your Chart and select the Trend Index MTF with Type L1 in the Settings as Signal Source
3. Add this Hurst Signal Filter to your Chart and select the Fishers Stochastic Center of Gravity with Type L2 in the Settings as Signal Source
4. Add the Backtest Module to your Chart and select the Hurst Signal Filter with Type L2 as Source
- Alerts for Automated Trading -
See my signature below. Contact me for the Alert module.
