McClellan Oscillator for DAX (GER30) [aftabmk modified]About McClellan Oscillator
Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator derived from Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average of Net Advances from the 19-day exponential moving average of Net Advances forms the oscillator.
As the formula reveals, the McClellan Oscillator is a momentum indicator that works similar to MACD .
McClellan Oscillator signals can be generated with breadth thrusts, centerline crossovers, overall levels and divergences.
About my version
This version here is a modification, though:
- It can only be used on the DAX index (DAX 30 or GER 30)
- It only considers the DAX 30 stocks
- The data window will provide a summary about rising and declining stocks
- The data window will output the last change for each of the 30 stocks
BUG
I am only publishing this version because I am not sure if my current version is saved when I leave tradingview.com without publishing the script.
This version still contains a bug - the if/else clauses do not correctly recognize declining stocks. So the oscillator should not be used as it is.
Working on it these days. Feel free to provide feedback!
Stuff I am working on
- Coloring the area green/red according to the value
- Fixing this bug/making this script more efficient
DISCLAIMER
This script was mainly written for educational purposes (training myself how to write custom indicatotors).
As you can see, the code is really messy.
Credits
Based on the simple version of aftabmk
You can find the original version by searching for McClellan Oscillator for nifty 50.
Search in scripts for "收集一只股票30个交易日的成交量、开盘价、最高价和最低价和收盘价"
Gann RetracementThe indicator is based on W. D. Gann's method of retracement studies. Gann looked at stock retracement action in terms of Halves (1/2), Thirds (1/3, 2/3), Fifths (1/5, 2/5, 3/5, and 4/5) and more importantly the Eighths (1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, and 7/8). Needless to say, {2, 3, 5, 8} are the only Fibonacci numbers between 1 to 10. These ratios can easily be visualized in the form of division of a Circle as follows :
Divide the circle in 12 equal parts of 30 degree each to produce the Thirds :
30 x 4 = 120 is 1/3 of 360
30 x 8 = 240 is 2/3 of 360
The 30 degree retracement captures fundamental geometric shapes like a regular Triangle (120-240-360), a Square (90-180-270-360), and a regular Hexagon (60-120-180-240-300-360) inscribed inside of the circle.
Now, divide the circle in 10 equal parts of 36 degree each to produce the Fifths :
36 x 2 = 72 is 1/5 of 360
36 x 4 = 144 is 2/5 of 360
36 x 6 = 216 is 3/5 of 360
36 x 8 = 288 is 4/5 of 360
where, (72-144-216-288-360) is a regular Pentagon.
Finally, divide the circle in 8 equal parts of 45 degree each to produce the Eighths :
45 x 1 = 45 is 1/8 of 360
45 x 2 = 90 is 2/8 of 360
45 x 3 = 135 is 3/8 of 360
45 x 4 = 180 is 4/8 of 360
45 x 5 = 225 is 5/8 of 360
45 x 6 = 270 is 6/8 of 360
45 x 7 = 315 is 7/8 of 360
where, (45-90-135-180-225-270-315-360) is a regular Octagon.
How to Use this indicator ?
The indicator generates Gann retracement levels between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low.
Input :
Swing High (significant high price point, such as a top)
Swing Low (significant low price point, such as a bottom)
Degree (degree of retracement)
Output :
Gann retracement levels (color coded as follows) :
Swing High and Swing Low (BLUE)
50% retracement (ORANGE)
Retracements between Swing Low and 50% level (RED)
Retracements between 50% level and Swing High (LIME)
Bollinger Bands %B + ATR This indicator is best suitable for the 30-minutes interval OIL charts, due to ATR accuracy.
BB%B is great for showing oversold/overbought market conditions and offers excellent entry/exit opportunities for Day Trading (30 minutes chart), as well as reliable convergence/divergence patterns. ATR is conveniently combined and shows potential market volatility levels for the day when used in 30-minutes charts, thus demarcating your day trade exit point.
To use the ATR on this indicator: Just read the ATR value of the lowest (for a new bull trend) or the highest (for a new bear trend) candlestick of the newly formed trend leg. Let's suppose the ATR reads 0.2891, then you project a move of 2.891 points towards the given trend direction using the ruler tool (30-minutes charts). That's all, and there you have your take profit target!
Good Luck!!!
ADX strategy (considering ADX and +DI only )I have been checking the strategies on ADX indicator.
I have found that +DI crossing above ADX line under threshold 30 and exit on crossdown when ADX above 30 has better results than just following crossovers of +DI and -DI , ADX crossing above 30 .
BUY Rule
========
fast ema is above slow ema (default 13 and 55 , you can change these values in settings)
+DI cross above ADX well beloe threshold level (default 30)
Exit reule
========
when +DI cross down ADX , well above on threshold level
Stop Loss
=========
Default is set to 8%
Take a look and let me know how your symbol works with this strategy
Note : Bar color changes to yellow when the BUY condition is met.
Bar color and Background color shows to blue --- if Long position is active
fast ema and long ema doesnt print on the chart -- please add manually to the chart
Warning : for the use of educational purposes only
EulerMethod: DeltaEN
Shows the Integral Volume Delta (IVD)
It is a detailed OBV. Each bar sums up the volume for bars of a shorter timeframe.
For example, inside a 1M bar, every 12h bar is added up, and inside a 1h bar, every 1min bar is added. Thus, a conditional volume delta inside the bar is obtained.
The indicator for each bar shows the volume of purchases (positive), sales (negative) and the difference — IVD
The delta histogram is thicker than the volume histograms
Settings detalisation
M — 6 hours, 12 hours and 1 day for the M timeframe (720 by default)
W — 4 hours, 6 hours and 12 hours for the W timeframe (240 by default)
D — 30 minutes, 1 hour and 2 hours for the D timeframe (60 by default)
H — 1 minute, 5 minutes and 15 minutes for timeframes [1h, D) (default is 1)
For timeframes of 15m and less, the calculation is carried out by minute bars
VSA mode
The classic OBV adds volume to the cumulative sum under the condition Сlose (n) > Close (n-1) and subtracts it under the condition Close (n) < Close (n-1)
When VSA mode is disabled, all volumes are summed up under these conditions.
When the VSA approximation is turned on, the volume per bar of detail is divided by the factor (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
That is, it takes into account the spread per bar and closing relative to the spread. VSA is enabled by default
A/D mode
Shows the cumulative Accumulation / Distribution Index
The delta of the detail bar is multiplied by (High + Low + Close) / 3 bars, the result is added to the cumulative sum
No additional price conversions required due to integral summation
Index line view is customizable
EM Delta does not receive intermediate values in real time.
To see the result, wait until the bar closes or switch to a smaller timeframe
RU
Показывает Интегральную Дельту Объёма (ИДО)
Представляет собой детализированный OBV. В каждом баре суммируется объём за бары меньшего таймфрейма.
Например, внутри 1М-бара суммируется каждый 12h-бар, а внутри 1h — каждый 1m-бар. Таким образом получается условная дельта объёма внутри бара
Индикатор на каждый бар показывает объём покупок (положительный), объём продаж (отрицательный) и разницу — ИДО
Гистограмма дельты толще гистограмм объёмов
Настройки детализации внутри бара
M — 6 часов, 12 часов и 1 день для таймфрейма M (по-умолчанию 720)
W — 4 часа, 6 часов и 12 часов для таймфрейма W (по-умолчанию 240)
D — 30 минут, 1 час и 2 часа для таймфрейма D (по-умолчанию 60)
H — 1 минута, 5 минут и 15 минут для таймфреймов [1h, D) (по-умолчанию 1)
Для таймфреймов 15m и меньше расчёт ведётся по минутным барам
Режим VSA
Классический OBV прибавляет объём к кумулятивной сумме при условии Сlose(n) > Close(n-1) и отнимает при условии Close(n) < Close(n-1)
При отключении режима VSA все объёмы суммируются по этим условиям
При включённой VSA-аппроксимации объём за бар детализации делится по фактору (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
То есть учитывает спред за бар и закрытие относительно спреда. По-умолчанию режим VSA включен
Режим A/D
Показывает кумулятивный индекс Накопления/Распределения
Дельта бара детализации умножается на (High + Low + Close) / 3 бара, результат прибавляется к кумулятивной сумме
Дополнительные преобразования цены не требуются ввиду интегрального суммирования
Вид линии индекса настраивается
EM Delta не получает промежуточные значения в реальном времени.
Чтобы увидеть результат, дождитесь закрытия бара или перейдите на меньший таймфрейм
Crypto Trading Hours UTC based on Berlin time (UTC +2)Although crypto markets trade 24/7, there are spikes in volume according to the general hours at which different parts of the world do the majority of their trading.
This Script highlights the US, European and Asian markets when they are most active. The normal market hours are always from 08:00 to 16:30 local time.
US market opens at 8:00 Silicon Valley local time, and closes at 16:30 New York local time.
European market opens at 8:00 London local time, and closes at 16:30 Frankfurt local time.
Asian market opens at 8:00 Hong Kong local time, and closes at 16:30 Sydney local time.
Supertrend MTF LAG ISSUEThis script based on
we all use Super trend but it main issue is the lag as it buy too late or sell too late
using Deavaet study of Heat map MTF we can do a little trick
if you look on his study you can see that major signal for example will happen in the time frame before it happen at larger time frame
so in this example if signal at MTF 30 min and signal at MTF 60 min happen at the same time at 2 hours or 4 hours candles then this signal are more likely to be true then random signal at each time frame specific.
since we use shorter time frame on larger time frame we can remove the lag issue that make supertrend not so effective
In this example I set the signal to be MTF 30 +60 om 2 hour TF , can be good also for 4 hour candles..
So you get the signal to close inside the larger candle
now if you want to make on even shorter TF then change the code to 15 and 30 MTF on candles on 1 hour
or 1 and 5 min on 30 min or 15 min
Panchang Time//This indicator is required in NimblrTA and can be used to define timeslots for the trend confirmation
study("Panchang Time", overlay=true)
timeinrange(res, sess) => time(res, sess) != 0
premarket = #C0C0C0
regular = #0000FF
regularslot2 = #00CCFF
postmarket = #5000FF
notrading = na
sessioncolor = timeinrange("30", "0915-0930") ? premarket : timeinrange("30", "0915-0930") ? regular : timeinrange("30", "0931-1200") ? regularslot2 : timeinrange("30", "1201-1305") ? postmarket : notrading
bgcolor(sessioncolor, transp=90)
extended session - Regular Opening-Range- JayyOpening Range and some other scripts updated to plot correctly (see comments below.) There are three variations of the fibonacci expansion beyond the opening range and retracements within the opening range of the US Market session - I have not put in the script for the other markets yet.
The three scripts have different uses and strengths:
The extended session script (with the script here below) will plot the opening range whether you are using the extended session or the regular session. (that is to say whether "ext" in the lower right hand corner is highlighted or not.). While in the extended session the opening range has some plotting issues with periods like 13 minutes or any period that is not divisible into 330 mins with a round number outcome (eg 330/60 =5.5. Therefore an hour long opening range has problems in the extended session.
The pre session script is only for the premarket. You can select any opening range period you like. I have set the opening range to be the full premarket session. If you select a different session you will have to unselect "pre open to 9:30 EST for Opening Range?" in the format section. The script defaults to 15 minutes in the "period Of Pre Opening Range?". To go back to the 4 am to 9:30 pre opening range select "pre open to 9:30 EST for Opening Range?" there is no automatic 330 minute selection.
The past days offset script only works in 5 min or 15 minute period. It will show the opening range from up to 20 days past over the current days price action. Use this for the regular session only. 0 shows the current day's opening range. Use the positive integers for number of days back ie 1, 2, 3 etc not -1, -2, -3 etc. The script is preprogrammed to use the current day (0).
Scripts updated to plot correctly: One thing they all have in common is a way of they deal with a somewhat random problem that shifts the plots 4 hours in one direction or the other ie the plot started at 9:30 EST or 1:30PM EST. This issue started to occur approximately June 22, 2015 and impacts any script that tried to use "session" times to manage a plot in my scripts. The issue now seems to have been resolved during this past week.
Just in case the problem reoccurs I have added a "Switch session plot?" to each script. If the plot looks funny check or uncheck the "Switch session plot?" and see the difference. Of course if a new issue crops up it will likely require a different fix.
I have updated all of the scripts shown on this chart. If you are using a script of mine that suffers from the compiler issue then you will find an update on this chart. You can get any and all of the scripts by clicking on the small sideways wishbone on the left middle of the chart. You will see a dialogue box. Then click "make it mine". This will import all of the scripts to your computer and you can play around with them all to decide what you want and what you don't want. This is the easiest way to get all of the scripts in one fell swoop. It is also the easiest way for me to make all of the scripts available. I do not have all of the plots visible since it is too messy and one of the scripts (pre OR) is only for the regular session. To view the scripts click on the blue eye to the right of the script title to show it on this script. If you can only use the regular session. The scripts will all (with the exception of the pre OR) work fine.
If for any reason this script seems flakey refresh the page r try a slightly different period. I have noticed that sometimes randomly the script loves to return to the 5 min OR. This is a very new issue transient issue. As always if you see an issue please let me know.
Cheers Jayy
X 4H ORThis indicator plots the 30-second opening range (high/low) for six New-York–time anchors—2am, 6am, 10am, 2pm, 6pm, and 10pm—and extends each box to a fixed end time (e.g., 2am→9am, 6am→1pm, etc.). It samples true 30-second data regardless of the chart timeframe, so the captured highs/lows are precise.
What it does
Builds the first 30s OR for each selected anchor and draws a time-anchored box for that session.
Archives every day’s boxes (up to a cap) so you can study how price interacts with past ranges.
Adds per-anchor show toggles to display the latest box for that anchor.
Adds a global History toggle to show/hide all archived boxes without deleting them (clean view vs. context view).
Uses borderless, color-coded fills per anchor to avoid edge distortion while keeping levels easy to read.
Why it’s useful
Quickly spot session inflection zones where liquidity, breakouts, or reversals cluster.
Compare how current price trades relative to recent session ranges for bias and risk framing.
Perform lightweight post-session review/backtesting on OR breaks, retests, and range rotations.
Keep charts decluttered on demand (latest only), or flip on history for deeper context.
ORBs, EMAs, AVWAPThis Pine Script (version 6) is a multi-session trading indicator that combines Opening Range Breakouts (ORBs), Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and an Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) system — all in one overlay script for TradingView.
Here’s a clear breakdown of its structure and functionality:
🕒 1. Session Logic and ORB Calculation
Purpose: Identify and plot the high and low of the first 30 minutes (default) for the Tokyo, London, and New York trading sessions.
Session Anchors (NY time):
Tokyo → 20:00
London → 03:00
New York → 09:30
(All configurable in inputs.)
ORB Duration: Default is 30 minutes (orbDurationMin), also user-configurable.
Resets:
London and NY ORBs reset at the start of each new New York trading day (17:00 NY time).
Tokyo ORB resets independently using a stored timestamp.
Process:
For each session:
While the time is within the ORB window, the script captures the session’s high and low.
Once the window closes, those levels remain plotted until reset.
Plot Colors:
Tokyo → Yellow (#fecc02)
London → Gray (#8c9a9c)
New York → Magenta (#ff00c8)
These form visible horizontal lines marking the prior session ranges — useful for breakout or retest trading setups.
📈 2. EMA System
Purpose: Provide trend and dynamic support/resistance guidance.
It calculates and plots four EMAs:
EMA Period Color Purpose
EMA 9 Short-term Green Fast signal
EMA 20 Short-term Red Confirms direction
EMA 113 Medium Aqua Trend filter
EMA 200 Long-term Orange Macro trend baseline
Each EMA is plotted directly on the price chart for visual confluence with ORB and VWAP levels.
⚖️ 3. Anchored VWAP (AVWAP)
Purpose: Display a volume-weighted average price anchored to specific timeframes or events, optionally with dynamic deviation or percentage bands.
Features:
Anchor Options:
Time-based: Session, Week, Month, Quarter, Year, Decade, Century
Event-based: Earnings, Dividends, Splits
VWAP resets when the chosen anchor condition is met (e.g., new month, new earnings event, etc.).
Bands:
Up to three levels of symmetric upper/lower bands.
Choose between Standard Deviation or Percentage-based widths.
Display Toggles:
Each band’s visibility is optional.
VWAP can be hidden on 1D+ timeframes (hideonDWM option).
Color Scheme:
VWAP: Fuchsia (magenta-pink) line
Bands: Green / Olive / Teal with light-filled zones
⚙️ 4. Technical Highlights
Uses ta.vwap() with built-in band calculations.
Handles instruments with or without volume (errors if missing volume).
Uses time-zone aware timestamps (timestamp(NY_TZ, …)).
Uses timeframe.change() to detect new anchors for the VWAP.
Employs persistent variables (var) to maintain session state across bars.
💡 In Practice
This indicator is designed for multi-session intraday traders who:
Trade Tokyo, London, or NY open breakouts or retests.
Use EMA stacking and crossovers for trend confirmation.
Use Anchored VWAP as a fair-value or mean-reversion reference.
Need clear visual structure across different market sessions.
It provides strong session separation, trend context, and volume-weighted price reference — making it ideal for discretionary or semi-systematic trading strategies focused on liquidity zones and session momentum.
RSI VWAP v1 [JopAlgo]RSI VWAP v1.1 made stronger by volume-aware!
We know there's nothing new and the original RSI already does an excellent job. We're just working on small, practical improvements – here's our take: The same basic idea, clearer display, and a single, specially developed rolling line: a VWAP of the RSI that incorporates volume (participation) into the calculation.
Do you prefer the pure classic?
You can still use Wilder or Cutler engines –
but the star here is the VW-RSI + rolling line.
This RSI also offers the possibility of illustrating a possible
POC (Point of Control - or the HAL or VAL) level.
However, the indicator does NOT plot any of these levels itself.
We have included an illustration in the chart for this!
We hope this version makes your decision-making easier.
What you’ll see
The RSI line with a 50 midline and optional bands: either static 70/30 or adaptive μ±k·σ of the Rolling Line.
One smoothing concept only: the Rolling Line (light blue) = VWAP of RSI.
Shadow shading between RSI and the Rolling Line (green when RSI > line, red when RSI < line).
A lighter tint only on the parts of that shadow that sit above the upper band or below the lower band (quick overbought/oversold context).
Simple divergence lines drawn from RSI pivots (green for regular bullish, red for regular bearish). No labels, no buy/sell text—kept deliberately clean.
What’s new, and why it helps
VW-RSI engine (default):
RSI can be computed from volume-weighted up/down moves, so momentum reflects how much traded when price moved—not just the direction.
Rolling Line (VWAP of RSI) with pure VWAP adaptation:
Low volume: blends toward a faster VWAP so early, thin starts aren’t missed.
Volume spikes: blends toward a slower VWAP so a single heavy bar doesn’t whip the curve.
You can reveal the Base Rolling (pre-adaptation) line to see exactly how much adaptation is happening.
Adaptive bands (optional):
Instead of fixed 70/30, use mean ± k·stdev of the Rolling Line over a lookback. Levels breathe with the market—useful in strong trends where static bounds stay pinned.
Minimal, readable panel:
One smoothing, one story. The shadow tells you who’s in control; the lighter highlight shows stretch beyond your lines.
How to read it (fast)
Bias: RSI above 50 (and a rising Rolling Line) → bullish bias; below 50 → bearish bias.
Trigger: RSI crossing the Rolling Line with the bias (e.g., above 50 and crossing up).
Stretch: Near/above the upper band, avoid chasing; near/below the lower band, avoid panic—prefer a cross back through the line.
Divergence lines: Use as context, not as standalone signals. They often help you wait for the next cross or avoid late entries into exhaustion.
Settings that actually matter
RSI Engine: VW-RSI (default), Wilder, or Cutler.
Rolling Line Length: the VWAP length on RSI (higher = calmer, lower = earlier).
Adaptive behavior (pure VWAP):
Speed-up on Low Volume → blends toward fast VWAP (factor of your length).
Dampen Spikes (volume z-score) → blends toward slow VWAP.
Fast/Slow Factors → how far those fast/slow variants sit from the base length.
Bands: choose Static 70/30 or Adaptive μ±k·σ (set the lookback and k).
Visuals: show/hide Base Rolling (ref), main shadow, and highlight beyond bands.
Signal gating: optional “ignore first bars” per day/session if you dislike open noise.
Starter presets
Scalp (1–5m): RSI 9–12, Rolling 12–18, FastFactor ~0.5, SlowFactor ~2.0, Adaptive on.
Intraday (15m–1H): RSI 10–14, Rolling 18–26, Bands k = 1.0–1.4.
Swing (4H–1D): RSI 14–20, Rolling 26–40, Bands k = 1.2–1.8, Adaptive on.
Where it shines (and limits)
Best: liquid markets where volume structure matters (majors, indices, large caps).
Works elsewhere: even with imperfect volume, the shadow + bands remain useful.
Limits: very thin/illiquid assets reduce the benefit of volume-weighting—lengthen settings if needed.
Attribution & License
Based on the concept and baseline implementation of the “Relative Strength Index” by TradingView (Pine v6 built-in).
Released as Open-source (MPL-2.0). Please keep the license header and attribution intact.
Disclaimer
For educational purposes only; not financial advice. Markets carry risk. Test first, use clear levels, and manage risk. This project is independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by TradingView.
Fish OrbThis indicator marks and tracks the first 15-minute range of the New York session open (default 9:30–9:45 AM ET) — a critical volatility period for futures like NQ (Nasdaq).
It helps you visually anchor intraday price action to that initial opening range.
Core Functionality
1. Opening Range Calculation
It measures the High, Low, and Midpoint of the first 15 minutes after the NY market opens (default 09:30–09:45 ET).
You can change the window or timezone in the inputs.
2. Visual Overlays
During the 15-minute window:
A teal shaded box highlights the open range period.
Live white lines mark the current High and Low.
A red line marks the midpoint (mid-range).
These update in real-time as each bar forms.
3. Post-Window Behavior
When the 15-minute window ends:
The High, Low, and Midpoint are locked in.
The indicator draws persistent horizontal lines for those values.
4. Historical Days
You can keep today + a set number of previous days (configurable via “Previous Days to Keep”).
Older days automatically delete to keep charts clean.
5. Line Extension Control
Each day’s lines extend to the right after they form.
You can toggle “Stop Lines at Next NY Open”:
ON: Yesterday’s lines stop exactly at the next NY session open (09:30 ET).
OFF: Lines extend indefinitely across the chart.
MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0 - Publish Summary
📊 Overview
A professional-grade trading indicator designed specifically for MNQ futures traders using TopStep funded accounts. Combines 7 technical confirmations with 5 advanced safety filters to deliver high-quality trade signals while managing drawdown risk.
🎯 Key Features
Core Signal System
7-Point Confirmation: VWAP, EMA crossovers, 15-min HTF trend, MACD, RSI, ADX, and Volume
Signal Grading: Each signal is rated A+ through D based on 7 quality factors
Quality Threshold: Adjustable minimum grade requirement (A+, A, B, C, D)
Advanced Safety Filters (Customizable)
Mean Reversion Filter - Prevents chasing extended moves beyond VWAP bands
ATR Spike Filter - Avoids trading during extreme volatility events
EMA Spacing Filter - Ensures proper trend separation (optional)
Momentum Filter - Requires consecutive directional bars (optional)
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation - Aligns with 15-min trend (optional)
TopStep Risk Management
Real-time drawdown tracking
Position sizing calculator based on remaining cushion
Daily loss limit monitoring
Consecutive loss protection
Max trades per day limiter
Visual Components
VWAP with 1σ, 2σ, 3σ bands
EMA 9/21 with cloud fill
15-min EMA 50 for HTF trend
Comprehensive metrics dashboard
Risk management panel
Filter status panel
Detailed trade labels with entry, stops, and targets
⚙️ Default Settings (Balanced for Regular Signals)
Technical Indicators
Fast EMA: 9 | Slow EMA: 21 | HTF EMA: 50 (15-min)
MACD: 10/22/9
RSI: 14 period | Thresholds: 52 (buy) / 48 (sell)
ADX: 14 period | Minimum: 20
ATR: 14 period | Stop: 2x | TP1: 2x | TP2: 3x
Volume: 1.2x average required
Session Settings
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (adjustable)
Avoids first 15 minutes after market open
Customizable trading hours
Safety Filters (Default Configuration)
✅ Mean Reversion: Enabled (2.5σ max from VWAP)
✅ ATR Spike: Enabled (2.0x threshold)
❌ EMA Spacing: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ Momentum: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ MTF Confirmation: Disabled (can enable for quality)
Risk Controls
Minimum Signal Quality: C (adjustable to A+ for fewer/better signals)
Min Bars Between Signals: 10
Max Trades Per Day: 5
Stop After Consecutive Losses: 2
📈 Expected Performance
With Default Settings:
Signals per week: 10-15 trades
Estimated win rate: 55-60%
Risk-Reward: 1:2 (TP1) and 1:3 (TP2)
With Aggressive Settings (Min Quality = D, All Filters Off):
Signals per week: 20-25 trades
Estimated win rate: 50-55%
With Conservative Settings (Min Quality = A, All Filters On):
Signals per week: 3-5 trades
Estimated win rate: 65-70%
🚀 How to Use
Basic Setup:
Add indicator to MNQ 5-minute chart
Adjust TopStep account settings in inputs
Set your risk per trade percentage (default: 0.5%)
Configure trading session hours
Set minimum signal quality (Start with C for balanced results)
Signal Interpretation:
Green Triangle (BUY): Long signal - all confirmations aligned
Red Triangle (SELL): Short signal - all confirmations aligned
Label Details: Shows entry, stop loss, take profit levels, position size, and signal grade
Signal Grade: A+ = Elite (6-7 points) | A = Strong (5) | B = Good (4) | C = Fair (3)
Dashboard Monitoring:
Top Right: Technical metrics and market conditions
Top Left: Filter status (which filters are passing/blocking)
Bottom Right: TopStep risk metrics and position sizing
⚡ Customization Tips
For More Signals:
Lower "Minimum Signal Quality" to D
Decrease ADX threshold to 18-20
Lower RSI thresholds to 50/50
Reduce Volume multiplier to 1.1x
Disable additional filters
For Higher Quality (Fewer Signals):
Raise "Minimum Signal Quality" to A or A+
Increase ADX threshold to 25-30
Enable all 5 advanced filters
Tighten VWAP distance to 2.0σ
Increase momentum requirement to 3-4 bars
For TopStep Compliance:
Adjust "Max Total Drawdown" and "Daily Loss Limit" to match your account
Update "Already Used Drawdown" daily
Monitor the Risk Panel for cushion remaining
Use recommended contract sizing
🛡️ Risk Disclaimer
IMPORTANT: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results
All trading involves substantial risk of loss
Use proper risk management and position sizing
Test thoroughly in paper trading before live use
The indicator does not guarantee profitable trades
Adjust settings based on your risk tolerance and trading style
Always comply with your broker's and TopStep's rules
MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0 - Publish Summary📊 OverviewA professional-grade trading indicator designed specifically for MNQ futures traders using TopStep funded accounts. Combines 7 technical confirmations with 5 advanced safety filters to deliver high-quality trade signals while managing drawdown risk.🎯 Key FeaturesCore Signal System
7-Point Confirmation: VWAP, EMA crossovers, 15-min HTF trend, MACD, RSI, ADX, and Volume
Signal Grading: Each signal is rated A+ through D based on 7 quality factors
Quality Threshold: Adjustable minimum grade requirement (A+, A, B, C, D)
Advanced Safety Filters (Customizable)
Mean Reversion Filter - Prevents chasing extended moves beyond VWAP bands
ATR Spike Filter - Avoids trading during extreme volatility events
EMA Spacing Filter - Ensures proper trend separation (optional)
Momentum Filter - Requires consecutive directional bars (optional)
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation - Aligns with 15-min trend (optional)
TopStep Risk Management
Real-time drawdown tracking
Position sizing calculator based on remaining cushion
Daily loss limit monitoring
Consecutive loss protection
Max trades per day limiter
Visual Components
VWAP with 1σ, 2σ, 3σ bands
EMA 9/21 with cloud fill
15-min EMA 50 for HTF trend
Comprehensive metrics dashboard
Risk management panel
Filter status panel
Detailed trade labels with entry, stops, and targets
⚙️ Default Settings (Balanced for Regular Signals)Technical Indicators
Fast EMA: 9 | Slow EMA: 21 | HTF EMA: 50 (15-min)
MACD: 10/22/9
RSI: 14 period | Thresholds: 52 (buy) / 48 (sell)
ADX: 14 period | Minimum: 20
ATR: 14 period | Stop: 2x | TP1: 2x | TP2: 3x
Volume: 1.2x average required
Session Settings
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (adjustable)
Avoids first 15 minutes after market open
Customizable trading hours
Safety Filters (Default Configuration)
✅ Mean Reversion: Enabled (2.5σ max from VWAP)
✅ ATR Spike: Enabled (2.0x threshold)
❌ EMA Spacing: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ Momentum: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ MTF Confirmation: Disabled (can enable for quality)
Risk Controls
Minimum Signal Quality: C (adjustable to A+ for fewer/better signals)
Min Bars Between Signals: 10
Max Trades Per Day: 5
Stop After Consecutive Losses: 2
📈 Expected PerformanceWith Default Settings:
Signals per week: 10-15 trades
Estimated win rate: 55-60%
Risk-Reward: 1:2 (TP1) and 1:3 (TP2)
With Aggressive Settings (Min Quality = D, All Filters Off):
Signals per week: 20-25 trades
Estimated win rate: 50-55%
With Conservative Settings (Min Quality = A, All Filters On):
Signals per week: 3-5 trades
Estimated win rate: 65-70%
🚀 How to UseBasic Setup:
Add indicator to MNQ 5-minute chart
Adjust TopStep account settings in inputs
Set your risk per trade percentage (default: 0.5%)
Configure trading session hours
Set minimum signal quality (Start with C for balanced results)
Signal Interpretation:
Green Triangle (BUY): Long signal - all confirmations aligned
Red Triangle (SELL): Short signal - all confirmations aligned
Label Details: Shows entry, stop loss, take profit levels, position size, and signal grade
Signal Grade: A+ = Elite (6-7 points) | A = Strong (5) | B = Good (4) | C = Fair (3)
Dashboard Monitoring:
Top Right: Technical metrics and market conditions
Top Left: Filter status (which filters are passing/blocking)
Bottom Right: TopStep risk metrics and position sizing
⚡ Customization TipsFor More Signals:
Lower "Minimum Signal Quality" to D
Decrease ADX threshold to 18-20
Lower RSI thresholds to 50/50
Reduce Volume multiplier to 1.1x
Disable additional filters
For Higher Quality (Fewer Signals):
Raise "Minimum Signal Quality" to A or A+
Increase ADX threshold to 25-30
Enable all 5 advanced filters
Tighten VWAP distance to 2.0σ
Increase momentum requirement to 3-4 bars
For TopStep Compliance:
Adjust "Max Total Drawdown" and "Daily Loss Limit" to match your account
Update "Already Used Drawdown" daily
Monitor the Risk Panel for cushion remaining
Use recommended contract sizing
🛡️ Risk DisclaimerIMPORTANT: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results
All trading involves substantial risk of loss
Use proper risk management and position sizing
Test thoroughly in paper trading before live use
The indicator does not guarantee profitable trades
Adjust settings based on your risk tolerance and trading style
Always comply with your broker's and TopStep's rules
Stochastic Enhanced [DCAUT]█ Stochastic Enhanced
📊 ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
The Stochastic Enhanced indicator builds upon George Lane's classic momentum oscillator (developed in the late 1950s) by providing comprehensive smoothing algorithm flexibility. While traditional implementations limit users to Simple Moving Average (SMA) smoothing, this enhanced version offers 21 advanced smoothing algorithms, allowing traders to optimize the indicator's characteristics for different market conditions and trading styles.
Key Improvements:
Extended from single SMA smoothing to 21 professional-grade algorithms including adaptive filters (KAMA, FRAMA), zero-lag methods (ZLEMA, T3), and advanced digital filters (Kalman, Laguerre)
Maintains backward compatibility with traditional Stochastic calculations through SMA default setting
Unified smoothing algorithm applies to both %K and %D lines for consistent signal processing characteristics
Enhanced visual feedback with clear color distinction and background fill highlighting for intuitive signal recognition
Comprehensive alert system covering crossovers and zone entries for systematic trade management
Differentiation from Traditional Stochastic:
Traditional Stochastic indicators use fixed SMA smoothing, which introduces consistent lag regardless of market volatility. This enhanced version addresses the limitation by offering adaptive algorithms that adjust to market conditions (KAMA, FRAMA), reduce lag without sacrificing smoothness (ZLEMA, T3, HMA), or provide superior noise filtering (Kalman Filter, Laguerre filters). The flexibility helps traders balance responsiveness and stability according to their specific needs.
📐 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
Core Stochastic Calculation:
The Stochastic Oscillator measures the position of the current close relative to the high-low range over a specified period:
Step 1: Raw %K Calculation
%K_raw = 100 × (Close - Lowest Low) / (Highest High - Lowest Low)
Where:
Close = Current closing price
Lowest Low = Lowest low over the %K Length period
Highest High = Highest high over the %K Length period
Result ranges from 0 (close at period low) to 100 (close at period high)
Step 2: Smoothed %K Calculation
%K = MA(%K_raw, K Smoothing Period, MA Type)
Where:
MA = Selected moving average algorithm (SMA, EMA, etc.)
K Smoothing = 1 for Fast Stochastic, 3+ for Slow Stochastic
Traditional Fast Stochastic uses %K_raw directly without smoothing
Step 3: Signal Line %D Calculation
%D = MA(%K, D Smoothing Period, MA Type)
Where:
%D acts as a signal line and moving average of %K
D Smoothing typically set to 3 periods in traditional implementations
Both %K and %D use the same MA algorithm for consistent behavior
Available Smoothing Algorithms (21 Options):
Standard Moving Averages:
SMA (Simple): Equal-weighted average, traditional default, consistent lag characteristics
EMA (Exponential): Recent price emphasis, faster response to changes, exponential decay weighting
RMA (Rolling/Wilder's): Smoothed average used in RSI, less reactive than EMA
WMA (Weighted): Linear weighting favoring recent data, moderate responsiveness
VWMA (Volume-Weighted): Incorporates volume data, reflects market participation intensity
Advanced Moving Averages:
HMA (Hull): Reduced lag with smoothness, uses weighted moving averages and square root period
ALMA (Arnaud Legoux): Gaussian distribution weighting, minimal lag with good noise reduction
LSMA (Least Squares): Linear regression based, fits trend line to data points
DEMA (Double Exponential): Reduced lag compared to EMA, uses double smoothing technique
TEMA (Triple Exponential): Further lag reduction, triple smoothing with lag compensation
ZLEMA (Zero-Lag Exponential): Lag elimination attempt using error correction, very responsive
TMA (Triangular): Double-smoothed SMA, very smooth but slower response
Adaptive & Intelligent Filters:
T3 (Tilson T3): Six-pass exponential smoothing with volume factor adjustment, excellent smoothness
FRAMA (Fractal Adaptive): Adapts to market fractal dimension, faster in trends, slower in ranges
KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive): Efficiency ratio based adaptation, responds to volatility changes
McGinley Dynamic: Self-adjusting mechanism following price more accurately, reduced whipsaws
Kalman Filter: Optimal estimation algorithm from aerospace engineering, dynamic noise filtering
Advanced Digital Filters:
Ultimate Smoother: Advanced digital filter design, superior noise rejection with minimal lag
Laguerre Filter: Time-domain filter with N-order implementation, adjustable lag characteristics
Laguerre Binomial Filter: 6-pole Laguerre filter, extremely smooth output for long-term analysis
Super Smoother: Butterworth filter implementation, removes high-frequency noise effectively
📊 COMPREHENSIVE SIGNAL ANALYSIS
Absolute Level Interpretation (%K Line):
%K Above 80: Overbought condition, price near period high, potential reversal or pullback zone, caution for new long entries
%K in 70-80 Range: Strong upward momentum, bullish trend confirmation, uptrend likely continuing
%K in 50-70 Range: Moderate bullish momentum, neutral to positive outlook, consolidation or mild uptrend
%K in 30-50 Range: Moderate bearish momentum, neutral to negative outlook, consolidation or mild downtrend
%K in 20-30 Range: Strong downward momentum, bearish trend confirmation, downtrend likely continuing
%K Below 20: Oversold condition, price near period low, potential bounce or reversal zone, caution for new short entries
Crossover Signal Analysis:
%K Crosses Above %D (Bullish Cross): Momentum shifting bullish, faster line overtakes slower signal, consider long entry especially in oversold zone, strongest when occurring below 20 level
%K Crosses Below %D (Bearish Cross): Momentum shifting bearish, faster line falls below slower signal, consider short entry especially in overbought zone, strongest when occurring above 80 level
Crossover in Midrange (40-60): Less reliable signals, often in choppy sideways markets, require additional confirmation from trend or volume analysis
Multiple Failed Crosses: Indicates ranging market or choppy conditions, reduce position sizes or avoid trading until clear directional move
Advanced Divergence Patterns (%K Line vs Price):
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower low while %K makes higher low, indicates weakening bearish momentum, potential trend reversal upward, more reliable when %K in oversold zone
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher high while %K makes lower high, indicates weakening bullish momentum, potential trend reversal downward, more reliable when %K in overbought zone
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Price makes higher low while %K makes lower low, indicates trend continuation in uptrend, bullish trend strength confirmation
Hidden Bearish Divergence: Price makes lower high while %K makes higher high, indicates trend continuation in downtrend, bearish trend strength confirmation
Momentum Strength Analysis (%K Line Slope):
Steep %K Slope: Rapid momentum change, strong directional conviction, potential for extended moves but also increased reversal risk
Gradual %K Slope: Steady momentum development, sustainable trends more likely, lower probability of sharp reversals
Flat or Horizontal %K: Momentum stalling, potential reversal or consolidation ahead, wait for directional break before committing
%K Oscillation Within Range: Indicates ranging market, sideways price action, better suited for range-trading strategies than trend following
🎯 STRATEGIC APPLICATIONS
Mean Reversion Strategy (Range-Bound Markets):
Identify ranging market conditions using price action or Bollinger Bands
Wait for Stochastic to reach extreme zones (above 80 for overbought, below 20 for oversold)
Enter counter-trend position when %K crosses %D in extreme zone (sell on bearish cross above 80, buy on bullish cross below 20)
Set profit targets near opposite extreme or midline (50 level)
Use tight stop-loss above recent swing high/low to protect against breakout scenarios
Exit when Stochastic reaches opposite extreme or %K crosses %D in opposite direction
Trend Following with Momentum Confirmation:
Identify primary trend direction using higher timeframe analysis or moving averages
Wait for Stochastic pullback to oversold zone (<20) in uptrend or overbought zone (>80) in downtrend
Enter in trend direction when %K crosses %D confirming momentum shift (bullish cross in uptrend, bearish cross in downtrend)
Use wider stops to accommodate normal trend volatility
Add to position on subsequent pullbacks showing similar Stochastic pattern
Exit when Stochastic shows opposite extreme with failed cross or bearish/bullish divergence
Divergence-Based Reversal Strategy:
Scan for divergence between price and Stochastic at swing highs/lows
Confirm divergence with at least two price pivots showing divergent Stochastic readings
Wait for %K to cross %D in direction of anticipated reversal as entry trigger
Enter position in divergence direction with stop beyond recent swing extreme
Target profit at key support/resistance levels or Fibonacci retracements
Scale out as Stochastic reaches opposite extreme zone
Multi-Timeframe Momentum Alignment:
Analyze Stochastic on higher timeframe (4H or Daily) for primary trend bias
Switch to lower timeframe (1H or 15M) for precise entry timing
Only take trades where lower timeframe Stochastic signal aligns with higher timeframe momentum direction
Higher timeframe Stochastic in bullish zone (>50) = only take long entries on lower timeframe
Higher timeframe Stochastic in bearish zone (<50) = only take short entries on lower timeframe
Exit when lower timeframe shows counter-signal or higher timeframe momentum reverses
Zone Transition Strategy:
Monitor Stochastic for transitions between zones (oversold to neutral, neutral to overbought, etc.)
Enter long when Stochastic crosses above 20 (exiting oversold), signaling momentum shift from bearish to neutral/bullish
Enter short when Stochastic crosses below 80 (exiting overbought), signaling momentum shift from bullish to neutral/bearish
Use zone midpoint (50) as dynamic support/resistance for position management
Trail stops as Stochastic advances through favorable zones
Exit when Stochastic fails to maintain momentum and reverses back into prior zone
📋 DETAILED PARAMETER CONFIGURATION
%K Length (Default: 14):
Lower Values (5-9): Highly sensitive to price changes, generates more frequent signals, increased false signals in choppy markets, suitable for very short-term trading and scalping
Standard Values (10-14): Balanced sensitivity and reliability, traditional default (14) widely used,适合 swing trading and intraday strategies
Higher Values (15-21): Reduced sensitivity, smoother oscillations, fewer but potentially more reliable signals, better for position trading and lower timeframe noise reduction
Very High Values (21+): Slow response, long-term momentum measurement, fewer trading signals, suitable for weekly or monthly analysis
%K Smoothing (Default: 3):
Value 1: Fast Stochastic, uses raw %K calculation without additional smoothing, most responsive to price changes, generates earliest signals with higher noise
Value 3: Slow Stochastic (default), traditional smoothing level, reduces false signals while maintaining good responsiveness, widely accepted standard
Values 5-7: Very slow response, extremely smooth oscillations, significantly reduced whipsaws but delayed entry/exit timing
Recommendation: Default value 3 suits most trading scenarios, active short-term traders may use 1, conservative long-term positions use 5+
%D Smoothing (Default: 3):
Lower Values (1-2): Signal line closely follows %K, frequent crossover signals, useful for active trading but requires strict filtering
Standard Value (3): Traditional setting providing balanced signal line behavior, optimal for most trading applications
Higher Values (4-7): Smoother signal line, fewer crossover signals, reduced whipsaws but slower confirmation, better for trend trading
Very High Values (8+): Signal line becomes slow-moving reference, crossovers rare and highly significant, suitable for long-term position changes only
Smoothing Type Algorithm Selection:
For Trending Markets:
ZLEMA, DEMA, TEMA: Reduced lag for faster trend entry, quick response to momentum shifts, suitable for strong directional moves
HMA, ALMA: Good balance of smoothness and responsiveness, effective for clean trend following without excessive noise
EMA: Classic choice for trending markets, faster than SMA while maintaining reasonable stability
For Ranging/Choppy Markets:
Kalman Filter, Super Smoother: Superior noise filtering, reduces false signals in sideways action, helps identify genuine reversal points
Laguerre Filters: Smooth oscillations with adjustable lag, excellent for mean reversion strategies in ranges
T3, TMA: Very smooth output, filters out market noise effectively, clearer extreme zone identification
For Adaptive Market Conditions:
KAMA: Automatically adjusts to market efficiency, fast in trends and slow in congestion, reduces whipsaws during transitions
FRAMA: Adapts to fractal market structure, responsive during directional moves, conservative during uncertainty
McGinley Dynamic: Self-adjusting smoothing, follows price naturally, minimizes lag in trending markets while filtering noise in ranges
For Conservative Long-Term Analysis:
SMA: Traditional choice, predictable behavior, widely understood characteristics
RMA (Wilder's): Smooth oscillations, reduced sensitivity to outliers, consistent behavior across market conditions
Laguerre Binomial Filter: Extremely smooth output, ideal for weekly/monthly timeframe analysis, eliminates short-term noise completely
Source Selection:
Close (Default): Standard choice using closing prices, most common and widely tested
HLC3 or OHLC4: Incorporates more price information, reduces impact of sudden spikes or gaps, smoother oscillator behavior
HL2: Midpoint of high-low range, emphasizes intrabar volatility, useful for markets with wide intraday ranges
Custom Source: Can use other indicators as input (e.g., Heikin Ashi close, smoothed price), creates derivative momentum indicators
📈 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Responsiveness Characteristics:
Traditional SMA-Based Stochastic:
Fixed lag regardless of market conditions, consistent delay of approximately (K Smoothing + D Smoothing) / 2 periods
Equal treatment of trending and ranging markets, no adaptation to volatility changes
Predictable behavior but suboptimal in varying market regimes
Enhanced Version with Adaptive Algorithms:
KAMA and FRAMA reduce lag by up to 40-60% in strong trends compared to SMA while maintaining similar smoothness in ranges
ZLEMA and T3 provide near-zero lag characteristics for early entry signals with acceptable noise levels
Kalman Filter and Super Smoother offer superior noise rejection, reducing false signals in choppy conditions by estimations of 30-50% compared to SMA
Performance improvements vary by algorithm selection and market conditions
Signal Quality Improvements:
Adaptive algorithms help reduce whipsaw trades in ranging markets by adjusting sensitivity dynamically
Advanced filters (Kalman, Laguerre, Super Smoother) provide clearer extreme zone readings for mean reversion strategies
Zero-lag methods (ZLEMA, DEMA, TEMA) generate earlier crossover signals in trending markets for improved entry timing
Smoother algorithms (T3, Laguerre Binomial) reduce false extreme zone touches for more reliable overbought/oversold signals
Comparison with Standard Implementations:
Versus Basic Stochastic: Enhanced version offers 21 smoothing options versus single SMA, allowing optimization for specific market characteristics and trading styles
Versus RSI: Stochastic provides range-bound measurement (0-100) with clear extreme zones, RSI measures momentum speed, Stochastic offers clearer visual overbought/oversold identification
Versus MACD: Stochastic bounded oscillator suitable for mean reversion, MACD unbounded indicator better for trend strength, Stochastic excels in range-bound and oscillating markets
Versus CCI: Stochastic has fixed bounds (0-100) for consistent interpretation, CCI unbounded with variable extremes, Stochastic provides more standardized extreme readings across different instruments
Flexibility Advantages:
Single indicator adaptable to multiple strategies through algorithm selection rather than requiring different indicator variants
Ability to optimize smoothing characteristics for specific instruments (e.g., smoother for crypto volatility, faster for forex trends)
Multi-timeframe analysis with consistent algorithm across timeframes for coherent momentum picture
Backtesting capability with algorithm as optimization parameter for strategy development
Limitations and Considerations:
Increased complexity from multiple algorithm choices may lead to over-optimization if parameters are curve-fitted to historical data
Adaptive algorithms (KAMA, FRAMA) have adjustment periods during market regime changes where signals may be less reliable
Zero-lag algorithms sacrifice some smoothness for responsiveness, potentially increasing noise sensitivity in very choppy conditions
Performance characteristics vary significantly across algorithms, requiring understanding and testing before live implementation
Like all oscillators, Stochastic can remain in extreme zones for extended periods during strong trends, generating premature reversal signals
USAGE NOTES
This indicator is designed for technical analysis and educational purposes to provide traders with enhanced flexibility in momentum analysis. The Stochastic Oscillator has limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Important Considerations:
Algorithm performance varies with market conditions - no single smoothing method is optimal for all scenarios
Extreme zone signals (overbought/oversold) indicate potential reversal areas but not guaranteed turning points, especially in strong trends
Crossover signals may generate false entries during sideways choppy markets regardless of smoothing algorithm
Divergence patterns require confirmation from price action or additional indicators before trading
Past indicator characteristics and backtested results do not guarantee future performance
Always combine Stochastic analysis with proper risk management, position sizing, and multi-indicator confirmation
Test selected algorithm on historical data of specific instrument and timeframe before live trading
Market regime changes may require algorithm adjustment for optimal performance
The enhanced smoothing options are intended to provide tools for optimizing the indicator's behavior to match individual trading styles and market characteristics, not to create a perfect predictive tool. Responsible usage includes understanding the mathematical properties of selected algorithms and their appropriate application contexts.
Session-Conditioned Regime ATRWhy this exists
Classic ATR is great—until the open. The first few bars often inherit overnight gaps and 24-hour noise that have nothing to do with the intraday regime you actually trade. That inflates early ATR, scrambles thresholds, and invites hyper-recency bias (“today is crazy!”) when it’s just the open being the open.
This tool was built to:
Separate session reality from 24h noise. Measure volatility only inside your defined session (e.g., NYSE 09:30–16:00 ET).
Judge candles against the current regime, not the last 2–3 bars. A rolling statistic from the last N completed sessions defines what “typical” means right now.
Label “large” and “small” objectively. Bars are colored only when True Range meaningfully departs from the session regime—no gut feel, no open-bar distortion (gap inclusion optional).
Overview
Purpose: objectively identify unusually big or small candles within the active trading session, compared to the recent session regime.
Use cases: volatility filters, entry/exit confirmation, session bias detection, adaptive sizing.
This indicator replaces generic ATR with a session-conditioned, regime-aware measure. It colors candles only when their True Range (TR) is abnormally large/small versus the last N completed sessions of the same session window.
How it works
Session gating: Only bars inside the selected session are evaluated (presets for NYSE, CME RTH, FX NY; custom supported).
Per-bar TR: TR = max(high, prevRef) − min(low, prevRef).
prevRef is the prior close for in-session bars.
First bar of the session can include the overnight gap (optional; default off).
Regime statistic: For any bar in session k, aggregate all in-session TRs from the previous N completed sessions (k−N … k−1), then compute Median (default) or Mean.
Today’s anchor: Running statistic from today’s session start → current bar (for context and the on-chart ratio).
Color logic:
Big if TR ≥ bigMult × RegimeStat
Small if TR ≤ smallMult × RegimeStat
Colored states: big bull, big bear, small bull, small bear.
Non-triggering bars retain the chart’s native colors.
Panel (top-right by default)
Regime ATR (Nd): session-conditioned statistic over the past N completed sessions.
Today ATR (anchored): running statistic for the current session.
Ratio (Today/Regime): intraday volatility vs regime.
Sample size n: number of bars used in the regime calculation.
Inputs
Session Preset: NYSE (09:30–16:00 ET), CME RTH (08:30–15:00 CT), FX NY (08:00–17:00 ET), Custom (session + IANA timezone).
Regime Window: number of completed sessions (default 5).
Statistic: Median (robust) or Mean.
Include Open Gap: include overnight gap in the first in-session bar’s TR (default off).
Big/Small thresholds: multipliers relative to RegimeStat (defaults: Big=1.5×, Small=0.67×).
Colors: four independent colors for big/small × bull/bear.
Panel position & text size.
Hidden outputs: expose RegimeStat, TodayStat, Ratio, and Z-score to other scripts.
Alerts
RegimeATR: BIG bar — triggers when a bar meets the “Big” condition.
RegimeATR: SMALL bar — triggers when a bar meets the “Small” condition.
Hidden outputs (for strategies/screeners)
RegimeATR_stat, TodayATR_stat, Today_vs_Regime_Ratio, BarTR_Zscore.
Notes & limitations
No look-ahead: calculations only use information available up to that bar. Historical colors reflect what would have been known then.
Warm-up: colors begin once there are at least N completed sessions; before that, regime is undefined by design.
Changing inputs (session window, multipliers, median/mean, gap toggle) recomputes the full series using the same rolling regime logic per bar.
Designed for standard candles. Styling respects existing chart colors when no condition triggers.
Practical tips
For a broader or tighter notion of “unusual,” adjust Big/Small multipliers.
Prefer Median in markets prone to outliers; use Mean if you want Z-score alignment with the panel’s regime mean/std.
Use the Ratio readout to spot compression/expansion days quickly (e.g., <0.7× = compressed session, >1.3× = expanded).
Roadmap
More session presets:
24h continuous (crypto, index CFDs).
23h/Globex futures (CME ETH with a 60-minute maintenance break).
Regional equities (LSE, Xetra, TSE), Asia/Europe/NY overlaps for FX.
Half-day/holiday templates and dynamic calendars.
Multi-regime comparison: track multiple overlapping regimes (e.g., RTH vs ETH for futures) and show separate stats/ratios.
Robust stats options: trimmed mean, MAD/Huber alternatives; optional percentile thresholds instead of fixed multipliers.
Subpanel visuals: rolling TodayATR and Ratio plots; optional Z-score ribbon.
Screener/strategy hooks: export boolean series for BIG/SMALL, plus a lightweight strategy template for backtesting entries/exits conditioned on regime volatility.
Performance/QOL: per-symbol presets, smarter warm-up, and finer control over sample caps for ultra-low TF charts.
Changelog
v0.9b (Beta)
Session presets (NYSE/CME RTH/FX NY/Custom) with timezone handling.
Panel enhancements: ratio + sample size n.
Four-state bar coloring (big/small × bull/bear).
Alerts for BIG/SMALL bars.
Hidden Z-score stream for downstream use.
Gap-in-TR toggle for the first in-session bar.
Disclaimer
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Validate thresholds and session settings across symbols/timeframes before live use.
Session First 5-Min High/LowHere's a professional description for your indicator:
Session First 5-Min High/Low Marker
This indicator automatically identifies and marks the high and low price levels established during the first 5 minutes of major trading sessions, helping traders identify key intraday support and resistance zones.
Key Features:
Tracks three major trading sessions in IST (Indian Standard Time):
Asian Session: 5:30 AM - 5:35 AM
London Session: 12:30 PM - 12:35 PM
New York Session: 5:30 PM - 5:35 PM
Draws horizontal lines at the highest and lowest prices reached during each session's opening 5-minute window
Color-coded for easy identification (Yellow for Asian, Blue for London, Red for New York)
Lines extend across the chart to help track price reactions throughout the day
Clean, minimal design with optional labels
Best Used For:
Identifying key intraday support and resistance levels
Session breakout trading strategies
Understanding institutional order flow at market opens
Works on 1-minute timeframe for precise tracking
Customizable Settings:
Toggle line extensions on/off
Adjust line width (1-5)
Change colors for each session
Show/hide session labels
Perfect for day traders and scalpers who trade around major session openings and want to identify high-probability support/resistance zones established during peak liquidity periods.
This description explains what the indicator does, its practical applications, and its key features in a way that's clear for TradingView users.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Session Volume Spike DetectorSession Volume Spike Detector (Buy/Sell, Dual Windows, MTF + Edge/Cooldown)
What it does
Detects statistically significant buy/sell volume spikes inside two DST-aware Mountain Time sessions and projects 1m / 5m / 10m signals onto any chart timeframe (even 1s). Spikes are confirmed at the close of their native bar and are edge-triggered with optional cooldowns to prevent duplicate alerts.
How spikes are detected
Volume ≥ SMA × multiplier
Optional jump vs recent highest volume
Optional Z-Score gate for significance
Separate Buy/Sell logic using your Direction Mode (Prev Close or Candle Body)
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) display
Shows 1m, 5m, 10m arrows on your current chart
Each HTF fires once on its bar close (no repaint after close)
Sessions (DST-aware, MT)
Morning: 05:30–08:30
Midday: 11:00–13:30
Spikes only count inside these windows.
Inputs & styling
Thresholds: SMA length, multipliers, recent lookback, Z-Score toggle/level
Toggles for which TFs to display (chart TF, 1m, 5m, 10m)
Per-TF colors + cooldowns (seconds) for Any TF, 1m, 5m, 10m
Alerts (edge + cooldown)
MTF Volume Spike (Any TF) — fires on the first qualifying spike across enabled TFs
1m / 5m / 10m Volume Spike — per-TF alerts, Buy or Sell
Recommended: set alert Trigger = Once per bar close. Cooldowns tame “triggered too often” warnings.
Great with
FVG zones, bank/insto levels, session range breaks, and trend filters. Use the MTF arrows as a participation/pressure tell to confirm or fade moves.
Notes
Works on any symbol/timeframe; best viewed on 1m or sub-minute charts.
HTF spikes appear on the bar close of 1m/5m/10m respectively.
No dynamic plot titles; Pine v6-safe.
Short summary (≤250 chars):
MTF volume-spike detector for intraday sessions (DST-aware, MT). Projects 1m/5m/10m buy/sell spikes onto any chart, with edge-triggered alerts and per-TF cooldowns to prevent duplicates. Ideal for spotting institutional participation.
Session Volume Spike Detector (MTF Arrows)Overview
The Session Volume Spike Detector is a precision multi-timeframe (MTF) tool that identifies sudden surges in buy or sell volume during key market windows. It highlights high-impact institutional participation by comparing current volume against its historical baseline and short-term highs, then plots directional markers on your chart.
This version adds MTF awareness, showing spikes from 1-minute, 5-minute, and 10-minute frames on a single chart. It’s ideal for traders monitoring microstructure shifts across multiple time compressions while staying on a fast chart (like 1-second or 1-minute).
Key Features
Dual Session Windows (DST-aware)
Automatically tracks Morning (05:30–08:30 MT) and Midday (11:00–13:30 MT) activity, adjusted for daylight savings.
Directional Spike Detection
Flags Buy spikes (green triangles) and Sell spikes (magenta triangles) using dynamic volume gates, Z-Score normalization, and recent-bar jump filters.
Multi-Timeframe Projection
Displays higher-timeframe (1m / 5m / 10m) spikes directly on your active chart for continuous visual context — even on sub-minute intervals.
Adaptive Volume Logic
Each spike is validated against:
Volume ≥ SMA × multiplier
Volume ≥ recent-high × jump factor
Optional Z-Score threshold for statistical significance
Session-Only Filtering
Ensures spikes are only plotted within specified trading sessions — ideal for futures or intraday equity traders.
Configurable Alerts
Built-in alert conditions for:
Any timeframe (MTF aggregate)
Individual 1m, 5m, or 10m windows
Alerts trigger only when a new qualifying spike appears at the close of its bar.
Use Cases
Detect algorithmic or institutional activity bursts inside your trading window.
Track confluence of volume surges across multiple timeframes.
Combine with FVGs, bank levels, or range breakouts to identify probable continuation or reversal zones.
Build custom automation or alert workflows around statistically unusual participation spikes.
Recommended Settings
Use on 1-minute chart for full MTF display.
Adjust the SMA length (default 20) and Z-Score threshold (default 3.0) to suit market volatility.
For scalping or high-frequency environments, disable the 10m layer to reduce visual clutter.
Credits
Developed by Jason Hyde
© 2025 — All rights reserved.
Designed for clarity, precision, and MTF-synchronized institutional volume detection.
Williams Alligator Spread Oscillator (WASO)Short description (About box)
Williams Alligator Spread Oscillator (WASO) converts Bill Williams’ Alligator into a 0–100 oscillator that measures the average distance between Lips/Teeth/Jaw relative to ATR. High = expansion/trend (default), low = compression/range — making sideways markets easier to spot. Includes adaptive normalization, configurable thresholds, background shading, and alerts.
Full description (Description field)
What it does
The Williams Alligator Spread Oscillator (WASO) transforms Bill Williams’ Alligator into a single, adaptive 0–100 scale. It computes the average pairwise distance among the Alligator lines (Lips/Teeth/Jaw), normalizes it by ATR and a rolling min–max window, and smooths the result. This makes the signal robust across symbols and timeframes and explicitly improves detection of sideways (ranging) conditions by highlighting compression regimes.
Why it helps
Sideways detection made easier: Low WASO marks compressed regimes that commonly align with consolidation/range phases, helping you identify chop and plan breakout strategies.
Trend/expansion clarity: High WASO indicates the Alligator lines are widening relative to volatility, pointing to trending or expanding conditions.
You can flip the direction if you prefer “High = Range.”
How it is calculated (plain English)
Smooth price with RMA (SMMA-like) to get Jaw, Teeth, Lips.
Compute the average pairwise distance between these three lines.
Divide by ATR to remove price-scale effects.
Normalize with a rolling min–max window to map values to 0–100.
Optionally apply EMA smoothing to the oscillator.
Key settings
Jaw/Teeth/Lips Lengths: Alligator periods (SMMA-like via ta.rma).
ATR Length: Volatility benchmark for scaling.
Normalization Lookback: Longer = steadier; shorter = more responsive.
Smoothing (EMA): Evens out noise.
High Value = Large Spread (Trend): Toggle to invert semantics.
Upper/Lower Thresholds: 70/30 are practical starting points.
Signals / interpretation
Sideways / Compression (easier to spot):
Default direction: WASO below Lower Threshold (e.g., <30).
With inverted direction OFF: WASO above Upper Threshold (e.g., >70).
Trend / Expansion:
Default direction: WASO above Upper Threshold (e.g., >70).
With inverted direction OFF: WASO below Lower Threshold (e.g., <30).
Midline (50): Neutral zone; flips around 50 can hint at regime shifts.
Alerts included
Range Start (sideways/compression)
Trend Start (expansion/trend)
Notes & limitations
This implementation omits the classic forward shift of Alligator lines to keep signals usable on live bars.
If market behavior shifts (very quiet or very volatile), tune Lookback and ATR Length.
Combine WASO with breakout levels or momentum filters for entries/exits.
Credits & disclaimer
Inspired by Bill Williams’ Alligator.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Release Notes (v1.0):
Initial release of Williams-Alligator Spread Oscillator (WASO) with ATR-based scaling and adaptive 0–100 normalization.
Direction toggle (High = Trend by default), adjustable thresholds, background shading, and two alert conditions.
FirstStrike Long 200 - Daily Trend Rider [KedArc Quant]Strategy Description
FirstStrike Long 200 is a disciplined, long-only momentum strategy designed for daily "strike-first" entries in trending markets. It scans for RSI momentum above a customizable trigger (default 50), confirmed by EMA trend filters, and limits you to *exactly one trade per day* to avoid overtrading. It uses ATR for dynamic risk management (1.5x stop, 2:1 RR target) and optional trailing stops to ride winners. Backtested with realistic commissions and sizing, it prioritizes low drawdowns (<1% max in tests) over aggressive gains—ideal for swing traders seeking quality setups in bull runs.
Why It's Different from Other Strategies
Unlike generic RSI crossover bots or EMA ribbon mashups that spam signals and bleed in chop, FirstStrike enforces a "one-and-done" daily gate, blending precision momentum (RSI modes with grace/sustain) with robust filters (volume, sessions, rearm dips).
How It Helps Traders
- Reduces Emotional Trading: One entry/day forces discipline—miss a setup? Wait for tomorrow. Perfect for busy pros avoiding screen fatigue.
- Adapts to Regimes: Switch modes for trends ("Cross+Grace") vs. ranges ("Any bar")—boosts win rates 5-10% in backtests on high-beta names like .
- Risk-First Design: ATR scales stops to vol capping DD at 0.2% while targeting 2R winners. Trailing option locks +3-5% runs without early exits.
- Quick Insights: Labels/alerts flag entries with RSI values; bgcolor highlights signals for visual scanning. Helps spot "first-strike" edges in uptrends, filtering ~60% noise.
Why This Is Not a Mashup
This isn't a Frankenstein of off-the-shelf indicators—while it uses standard RSI/EMA/ATR (core Pine primitives), the innovation lies in:
- Custom Trigger Engine: Switchable modes (e.g., "Cross+Grace+Sustain" requires post-cross hold) prevent perpetual signals, unlike basic `ta.crossover()`.
- Daily Rearm Gate: Resets eligibility only after a dip (if enabled), tying momentum to mean-reversion—original logic not found in common scripts.
- Per-Day Isolation: `var` vars + `ta.change(time("D"))` ensure zero pyramiding/overlaps, beyond simple session filters.
All formulae are derived in-house for "first-strike" (early RSI pops in trends), not copied from public repos.
Input Configurations
Let's break down every input in the FirstStrike Long 200 strategy. These settings let you tweak the strategy like a dashboard—start with defaults for quick testing,
then adjust based on your asset or timeframe (5m for intraday). They're grouped logically to keep things organized, and most have tooltips in the script for quick reminders.
RSI / Trigger Group: The Heart of Momentum Detection
This is where the magic starts—the strategy hunts for "upward energy" using RSI (Relative Strength Index), a tool that measures if a stock is overbought (too hot) or oversold (too cold) on a 0-100 scale.
- RSI Length: How many bars (candles) back to calculate RSI. Default is 14, like a 14-day window for daily charts. Shorter (e.g., 9) makes it snappier for fast markets; longer (21) smooths out noise but misses quick turns.
- Trigger Level (RSI >= this): The key RSI value where the strategy says, "Go time!" Default 50 means enter when RSI crosses or holds above the neutral midline. Why is this trigger required? It acts as your "green light" filter—without it, you'd enter on every tiny price wiggle, leading to endless losers. RSI above this shows building buyer power, avoiding weak or sideways moves. It's essential for quality over quantity, especially in one-trade-per-day setups.
- Trigger Mode: Picks how strict the RSI signal must be. Options: "Cross only" (exact RSI crossover above trigger—super precise, fewer trades); "Cross+Grace" (crossover or within a grace window after—gives a second chance); "Cross+Grace+Sustain" (crossover/grace plus RSI holding steady for bars—best for steady climbs); "Any bar >= trigger" (looser, any bar above—more opportunities but riskier in chop). Start with "Any bar" for trends, switch to "Cross only" for caution.
- Grace Window (bars after cross): If mode allows, how many bars post-RSI-cross you can still enter if RSI dips but recovers. Default 30 (about 2.5 hours on 5m). Zero means no wiggle room—pure precision.
- Sustain Bars (RSI >= trigger): In sustain mode, how many straight bars RSI must stay above trigger. Default 3 ensures it's not a fluke spike.
- Require RSI Dip Below Rearm Before Any Entry?: A yes/no toggle. If on, the strategy "rearms" only after RSI dips below a low level (like a breather), preventing back-to-back signals in overextended rallies.
- Rearm Level (if requireDip=true): The dip threshold for rearming. Default 45—RSI must go below this to reset eligibility. Lower (30) for deeper pullbacks in volatile stocks.
For the trigger level itself, presets matter a lot—default 50 is neutral and versatile for broad trends. Bump to 55-60 for "strong momentum only" (fewer but higher-win trades, great in bull runs like tech surges); drop to 40-45 for "early bird" catches in recoveries (more signals but watch for fakes in ranges). The optimize hint (40-60) lets you test these in TradingView to match your risk—higher presets cut noise by 20-30% in backtests.
Trend / Filters Group: Keeping You on the Right Side of the Market
These EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) act like guardrails, ensuring you only long in uptrends.
- EMA (Fast) Confirmation: Short-term EMA for price action. Default 20 periods—price must be above this for "recent strength." Shorter (10) reacts faster to intraday pops.
- EMA (Trend Filter): Long-term EMA for big-picture trend. Default 200 (classic "above the 200-day" rule)—price above it confirms bull market. Minimum 50 to avoid over-smoothing.
Optional Hour Window Group: Timing Your Strikes
Avoid bad hours like lunch lulls or after-hours tricks.
- Restrict by Session?: Yes/no for using exact market hours. Default off.
- Session (e.g., 0930-1600 for NYSE): Time string like "0930-1600" for open to close. Auto-skips pre/post-market noise.
- Restrict by Hour Range?: Fallback yes/no for simple hours. Default off.
- Start Hour / End Hour: Clock times (0-23). Defaults 9-15 ET—focus on peak volume.
Volume Filter Group: No Volume, No Party
Confirms conviction—big moves need big participation.
- Require Volume > SMA?: Yes/no toggle. Default off—only fires on above-average volume.
- Volume SMA Length: Periods for the average. Default 20—compares current bar to recent norm.
Risk / Exits Group: Protecting and Profiting Smartly
Dynamic stops based on volatility (ATR = Average True Range) keep things realistic.
- ATR Length: Bars for ATR calc. Default 14—measures recent "wiggle room" in price.
- ATR Stop Multiplier: How far below entry for stop-loss. Default 1.5x ATR—gives breathing space without huge risk
- Take-Profit R Multiple: Reward target as multiple of risk. Default 2.0 (2:1 ratio)—aims for twice your stop distance.
- Use Trailing Stop?: Yes/no for profit-locking trail. Default off—activates after entry.
- Trailing ATR Multiplier: Trail distance. Default 2.0x ATR—looser than initial stop to let winners run.
These inputs make the strategy plug-and-play: Defaults work out-of-box for trending stocks, but tweak RSI trigger/modes first for your style.
Always backtest changes—small shifts can flip a 40% win rate to 50%+!
Outputs (Visuals & Alerts):
- Plots: Blue EMA200 (trend line), Orange EMA20 (price filter), Green dashed entry price.
- Labels: Green "LONG" arrow with RSI value on entries.
- Background: Light green highlight on signal bars.
- Alerts: "FirstStrike Long Entry" fires on conditions (integrates with TradingView notifications).
Entry-Exit Logic
Entry (Long Only, One Per Day):
1. Daily Reset: New day clears trade gate and (if required) rearm status.
2. Filters Pass: Time/session OK + Close > EMA200 (trend) + Close > EMA20 (price) + Volume > SMA (if enabled) + Rearmed (dip below rearm if toggled).
3. Trigger Fires: RSI >= trigger via selected mode (e.g., crossover + grace window).
4. Execute: Enter long at close; set daily flag to block repeats.
Exit:
- Stop-Loss: Entry - (ATR * 1.5) – dynamic, vol-scaled.
- Take-Profit: Entry + (Risk * 2.0) – fixed RR.
- Trailing (Optional): Activates post-entry; trails at Close - (ATR * 2.0), updating on each bar for trend extension.
No shorts or hedging—pure long bias.
Formulae Used
- RSI: `ta.rsi(close, rsiLen)` – Standard 14-period momentum oscillator (0-100).
- EMAs: `ta.ema(close, len)` – Exponential moving averages for trend/price filters.
- ATR: `ta.atr(atrLen)` – True range average for stop sizing: Stop = Entry - (ATR * mult).
- Volume SMA: `ta.sma(volume, volLen)` – Simple average for relative strength filter.
- Grace Window: `bar_index - lastCrossBarIndex <= graceBars` – Counts bars since RSI crossover.
- Sustain: `ta.barssince(rsi < trigger) >= sustainBars` – Consecutive bars above threshold.
- Session Check: `time(timeframe.period, sessionStr) != 0` – TradingView's built-in session validator.
- Risk Distance: `riskPS = entry - stop; TP = entry + (riskPS * RR)` – Asymmetric reward calc.
FAQ
Q: Why only one trade/day?
A: Prevents revenge trading in volatile sessions . Backtests show it cuts losers by 20-30% vs. multi-entry bots.
Q: Does it work on all assets/timeframes?
A: Best for trending stocks/indices on 5m-1H. Test on crypto/forex with wider ATR mult (2.0+).
Q: How to optimize?
A: Use TradingView's optimizer on RSI trigger (40-60) and EMA fast (10-30). Aim for PF >1.0 over 1Y data.
Q: Alerts don't fire—why?
A: Ensure `alertcondition` is enabled in script settings. Test with "Any alert() function calls only."
Q: Trailing stop too loose?
A: Tune `trailMult` to 1.5 for tighter; it activates alongside fixed TP/SL for hybrid protection.
Glossary
- Grace Window: Post-RSI-cross period (bars) where entry still allowed if RSI holds trigger.
- Rearm Dip: Optional pullback below a low RSI level (e.g., 45) to "reset" eligibility after signals.
- Profit Factor (PF): Gross profit / gross loss—>1.0 means winners outweigh losers.
- R Multiple: Risk units (e.g., 2R = 2x stop distance as target).
- Sustain Bars: Consecutive bars RSI stays >= trigger for mode confirmation.
Recommendations
- Backtest First: Run on your symbols (/) over 6-12M; tweak RSI to 55 for +5% win rate.
- Live Use: Start paper trading with `useSession=true` and `useVol=true` to filter noise.
- Pairs Well With: Higher TF (daily) for bias; add ADX (>25) filter for strong trends (code snippet in prior chats).
- Risk Note: 10% sizing suits $100k+ accounts; scale down for smaller. Not financial advice—past performance ≠ future.
- Publish Tip: Add tags like "momentum," "RSI," "long-only" on TradingView for visibility.
Strategy Properties & Backtesting Setup
FirstStrike Long 200 is configured with conservative, realistic backtesting parameters to ensure reliable performance simulations. These settings prioritize capital preservation and transparency, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders testing on stocks.
Initial Capital
$100,000 Standard starting equity for portfolio-level testing; scales well for retail accounts. Adjust lower (e.g., $10k) for smaller simulations.
Base Currency
Default (USD) Aligns with most US equities (e.g., NASDAQ symbols); auto-converts for other assets.
Order Size
1 (Quantity) Fixed share contracts for simplicity—e.g., buys 1 share per trade. For % of equity, switch to "Percent of Equity" in strategy code.
Pyramiding
0 Orders No additional entries on open positions; enforces strict one-trade-per-day discipline to avoid overexposure.
Commission
0.1% Realistic broker fee (e.g., Interactive Brokers tier); factors in round-trip costs without over-penalizing winners.
Verify Price for Limit Orders
0 Ticks No slippage delay on TPs—assumes ideal fills for historical accuracy.
Slippage
0 Ticks Zero assumed slippage for clean backtests; real-world trading may add 1-2 ticks on volatile opens.
These defaults yield low drawdowns (<0.3% max in tests) while capturing trend edges. For live trading, enable slippage (1-3 ticks) to mimic execution gaps. Always forward-test before deploying!
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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