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Self-Organized Criticality - Avalanche DistributionHere's all you need to know: This indicator applies Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) theory to financial markets, measuring the power-law exponent (alpha) of price drawdown distributions. It identifies whether markets are in stable Gaussian regimes or critical states where large cascading moves become more probable. Self-Organized Criticality SOC theory, introduced by Per Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (1987), describes how complex systems naturally evolve toward critical (fragile) states. An example is a sand pile: adding grains creates avalanches whose sizes follow a power-law distribution rather than a normal distribution. Financial markets exhibit similar behavior. Price movements aren't purely random walks—they display: Fat-tailed distributions (more extreme events than Gaussian models predict) Scale invariance (no characteristic avalanche size) Intermittent dynamics (periods of calm punctuated by large cascades) Power-Law Distributions When a system is in a critical state, the probability of an avalanche of size s follows: P(s) ∝ s^(-α) Where: α (alpha) is the power-law exponent Higher α → distribution resembles Gaussian (large events rare) Lower α → heavy tails dominate (large events common) This indicator estimates α from the empirical distribution of price drawdowns. Mathematical Method 1. Avalanche Detection The indicator identifies local price peaks (highest point in a lookback window), then measures the percentage drawdown to the next trough. A dynamic ATR-based threshold filters out noise—small drops in calm markets count, but the bar rises in volatile periods. 2. Logarithmic Binning Avalanche sizes are sorted into logarithmically-spaced bins (e.g., 1-2%, 2-4%, 4-8%) rather than linear bins. This captures power-law behavior across multiple scales - a 2% drop and 20% crash both matter. The indicator creates 12 adaptive bins spanning from your smallest to largest observed avalanche. 3. Bin-to-Bin Ratio Estimation For each pair of adjacent bins, we calculate: α ≈ log(N₁/N₂) / log(s₂/s₁) Where N₁ and N₂ are avalanche counts, s₁ and s₂ are bin sizes. Example: If 2% drops happen 4× more often than 4% drops, then α ≈ log(4)/log(2) ≈ 2.0. We get 8-11 independent estimates and average them. This is more robust than fitting one line through all points—outliers can't dominate. 4. Rolling Window Analysis Alpha recalculates using only recent avalanches (default: last 500 bars). Old data drops out as new avalanches occur, so the indicator tracks regime shifts in real-time. Regime Classification 🟢 Gaussian α ≥ 2.8 Normal distribution behavior; large moves are rare outliers 🟡 Transitional 1.8 ≤ α < 2.8 Moderate fat tails; system approaching criticality 🟠 Critical 1.0 ≤ α < 1.8 Heavy tails; large avalanches increasingly common 🔴 Super-Critical α < 1.0 Extreme tail risk; system prone to cascading failures What Alpha Tells You Declining alpha → Market moving toward criticality; tail risk increasing Rising alpha → Market stabilizing; returns to normal distribution Persistent low alpha → Sustained fragility; heightened crash probability Supporting Metrics Heavy Tail %: Concentration of total drawdown in largest 10% of events Populated Bins: Data coverage quality (11-12 out of 12 is ideal) Avalanche Count: Sample size for statistical reliability Limitations This is a distributional measure, not a timing indicator. Low alpha indicates increased systemic risk but doesn't predict when a cascade will occur. Only that the probability distribution has shifted toward larger events. How This Differs from the Per Bak Fragility Index The SOC Avalanche Distribution calculates the power-law exponent (alpha) directly from price drawdown distributions - a pure mathematical analysis requiring only price data. The Per Bak Fragility Index aggregates external stress indicators (VIX, SKEW, credit spreads, put/call ratios) into a weighted composite score. Technical Notes Default settings optimized for daily and weekly timeframes on major indices Requires minimum 200 bars of history for stable estimates ATR-based dynamic sizing prevents scale-dependent bias Alerts available for regime transitions and super-critical entry References Bak, P., Tang, C., & Wiesenfeld, K. (1987). Self-organized criticality: An explanation of the 1/f noise. Physical Review Letters. Sornette, D. (2003). Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton University Press.
Pine Script® indicator
by HenriqueCentieiro
1
6-9 session & levels6-9 Session & Levels - Customizable Range Analysis Indicator Description: This indicator provides comprehensive session-based range analysis designed for intraday traders. It calculates and displays key levels based on a customizable session period (default 6:00-9:00 AM ET). Core Features: Session Tracking Monitors user-defined session times with timezone support Displays session open, high, and low levels Highlights session range with optional box visualization Shows previous day RTH (Regular Trading Hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM) levels Range Levels 25%, 50%, and 75% range levels within the session Range deviations at 0.5x, 1.0x, and 2.0x multiples Fibonacci extension levels (customizable, default 1.33x and 1.66x) Optional fill zones between Fibonacci levels Time Zone Highlighting Marks the 9:40-9:50 AM period as a potential reversal zone Vertical lines with shading to identify key time windows Statistical Analysis Calculates mean and median extension levels based on historical sessions Displays statistics table showing current range, average range, range difference, and z-score Customizable sample size (1-100 sessions) for statistical calculations Option to anchor extensions from either session open or high/low points Input Settings Explained: Session Settings Levels Session Time: Define your session window in HHMM-HHMM format (default: 0600-0900) Time Zone: Choose from UTC, America/New_York, America/Chicago, America/Los_Angeles, Europe/London, or Asia/Tokyo Anchor Settings Show Session Anchor: Toggle the session anchor line (marks session open price at 6:00 AM) Anchor Style/Color/Width: Customize appearance (Solid/Dashed/Dotted, color, 1-4 width) Show Anchor Label: Display price label for the anchor Session Open Line: Similar options for the session open reference line Range Box Settings Show Range Box: Display a shaded rectangle highlighting the session high-to-low range Range Box Color: Set the box background color and transparency Range Levels (25%/50%/75%) Show Range Levels: Toggle all three intermediate levels on/off Individual Level Styling: Each level (25%, 50%, 75%) has its own color, style, and width settings Show Range Level Labels: Display price labels for each level Range Deviations Show Range Deviations: Toggle deviation levels on/off 0.5x/1.0x/2.0x Settings: Each deviation multiplier can be customized with its own color, line style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted), and width Show Range Deviation Labels: Display labels showing the deviation price levels Previous Day RTH Levels Show Previous RTH Levels: Display yesterday's regular trading hours high and low RTH High/Low Styling: Separate color, style, and width settings for each level Show Previous RTH Labels: Toggle price labels for RTH levels Time Zones Show 9:40-9:50 AM Zone: Highlight this specific time period with vertical lines and shading Zone Color: Set the background fill color for the time zone Zone Label Color/Text: Customize the label appearance and text Fibonacci Extension Settings Show Fibonacci Extensions: Toggle Fib levels on/off Fib Extension Color/Style/Width: Customize line appearance Show Fib Extension Labels: Display price labels Fib Ext Level 1/2: Set custom multipliers (default 1.33 and 1.66, range 0-5 in 0.1 increments) Show Fibonacci Fills: Display shaded zones between Fib levels Fib Fill Color: Customize the fill color and transparency Session High/Low Settings Show Session High/Low Lines: Display the actual session extremes Style/Color/Width: Customize line appearance Show Labels: Toggle price labels for high/low levels Extension Stats Settings Show Statistical Levels on Chart: Display mean and median extension levels based on historical data Extension Anchor Point: Choose whether to anchor from "Open" or "High/Low" of the session Number of Sessions for Statistics: Set sample size (1-100, default 60) for calculating averages Mean/Median High Extension: Separate styling for each statistical level (color, style, width) Mean/Median Low Extension: Separate styling for downside statistical levels Tables Show Statistics Table: Display a summary table with current range, average range, difference, z-score, and sample size Table Position: Choose from 9 positions (Bottom/Middle/Top + Center/Left/Right) Table Text Size: Select from Auto, Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, or Huge Display Settings Projection Offset: Number of bars to extend lines forward (default 24) Label Size: Choose from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large Price Decimal Precision: Set decimal places for price labels (0-6) How It Works: The indicator tracks the specified session period and calculates the session's open, high, low, and range. At the end of the session (9:00 AM by default), it projects all configured levels forward for the trading day. The statistical features analyze the last N sessions (you choose the number) to calculate typical extension behavior from either the session open or the session high/low points. The z-score calculation helps identify whether the current session's range is normal, expanded, or contracted compared to recent history, allowing traders to adjust expectations for the rest of the day. Use Case: This indicator helps traders identify key support and resistance levels based on early session price action, understand current range context relative to historical averages, and spot potential reversal zones during specific time periods. Note: This indicator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Pine Script® indicator
by lucymatos
EMA + Sessions + RSI Strategy v1.0A professional trading strategy that combines multiple technical indicators for high-probability entries. This system uses EMA crossovers, RSI zone filtering, and trend confirmation to identify optimal trading opportunities while managing risk with advanced position management tools. Key Features: ✅ Dual Entry Signals (EMA21 + EMA100 crossover conditions) ✅ Trend Filter EMA750 (trade only with the major trend) ✅ Complete Risk Management (SL 1%, TP 3% default) ✅ Trailing Stop & Breakeven (maximize profits, protect capital) ✅ Compact Statistics Table (real-time performance metrics) ✅ RSI & Session Filters (avoid low-probability setups) ✅ Optional Pyramiding (scale into winning positions) Perfect for swing trading and trend-following on any timeframe. Fully customizable to match your trading style.
Pine Script® strategy
by jake_theboss
1
TMT Support & Resistance - Hitesh NimjeTMT Support & Resistance - HiteshNimje Indicator Overview The TMT Support & Resistance indicator is a professional pivot point analysis tool that automatically calculates and displays key support and resistance levels across multiple timeframe perspectives. It offers various pivot point calculation methods and provides customizable visual elements for comprehensive technical analysis. Key Features Pivot Point Calculation Methods 1. Traditional Pivot Points Standard pivot point calculation using Previous Period High, Low, and Close Creates P, S1, S2, S3, R1, R2, R3 levels Most widely used method for day trading and swing trading 2. Fibonacci Pivot Points Incorporates Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 61.8%) Uses traditional pivot as base with Fibonacci extensions Popular among traders following Fibonacci analysis 3. Woodie Pivot Points Alternative calculation method with different weighting Emphasizes opening price in calculations Preferred by some intraday traders 4. Classic Pivot Points Similar to traditional but with different level calculations Balanced approach to support/resistance identification Timeframe Options * Auto: Automatically selects optimal timeframe based on chart timeframe Intraday ≤15min → Daily Intraday >15min → Weekly Daily → Monthly * Fixed Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly * Extended Periods: Biyearly, Triyearly, Quinquennially, Decennially Level Management System Support Levels (Blue Colored) * TMT Support 1 (S1): First major support level * TMT Support 2 (S2): Second support level * TMT Support 3 (S3): Third support level * TMT Support 4 (S4): Fourth support level (Traditional/Camarilla only) * TMT Support 5 (S5): Fifth support level (Traditional/Camarilla only) Resistance Levels (Black Colored) * TMT Resistance 1 (R1): First major resistance level * TMT Resistance 2 (R2): Second resistance level * TMT Resistance 3 (R3): Third resistance level * TMT Resistance 4 (R4): Fourth resistance level (Traditional/Camarilla only) * TMT Resistance 5 (R5): Fifth resistance level (Traditional/Camarilla only) Central Pivot (Orange Colored) * Pivot Point (P): Central price level used for S/R calculations Customization Options Display Settings * Show Labels: Toggle pivot level identification labels * Show Prices: Display actual price values next to levels * Labels Position: Choose between Left or Right positioning * Line Width: Adjustable thickness (1-100 pixels) for all pivot lines Data Source Options * Use Daily-based Values: ON: Uses official daily OHLC values for calculations OFF: Uses intraday data with extended hours consideration * Number of Pivots Back: Historical pivot display (1-200 levels) Color Customization * Individual color selection for each support/resistance level * Default colors: Supports (Blue), Resistances (Black), Pivot (Orange) * Full color picker integration for all levels Technical Features Smart Display Logic * Intraday Charts: Automatically uses daily-based calculations when intraday data is insufficient * Multi-timeframe Compatibility: Adapts to chart timeframe and pivot timeframe differences * Extended Hours Handling: Incorporates extended trading hours when enabled on chart Dynamic Level Management * Real-time Updates: Levels update as new data becomes available * Historical Tracking: Maintains configurable number of historical pivot periods * Automatic Cleanup: Removes old pivot graphics when limit is exceeded Visual Elements * Time-based Lines: Lines extend across full time periods for clear visual reference * Price Labels: Contextual information showing level names and prices * Professional Styling: Clean, professional appearance suitable for any trading style Use Cases Day Trading Applications * Session Management: Use daily pivots for intraday trading decisions * Range Trading: Camarilla levels excellent for range-bound strategies * Breakout Confirmation: Use pivot breaks as entry/exit signals Swing Trading Applications * Weekly/Monthly Pivots: Identify key levels for multi-day positions * Trend Analysis: Track how price interacts with higher timeframe pivots * Risk Management: Set stop-losses and take-profits at pivot levels Long-term Trading Applications * Quarterly/Yearly Pivots: Major institutional levels for position trading * Support/Resistance Maps: Create comprehensive price level roadmap * Market Structure Analysis: Understand price behavior around key levels Benefits for Traders Professional Analysis * Multiple Methodologies: Choose pivot calculation that matches trading style * Timeframe Flexibility: Analyze from multiple temporal perspectives * Historical Context: See how price has historically responded to pivot levels Risk Management * Level Identification: Clear visual reference for stop-loss placement * Position Sizing: Use pivot distances for risk/reward calculations * Entry Timing: Identify optimal entry points near support/resistance Market Understanding * Psychological Levels: Understand where market participants react * Volume Confirmation: Cross-reference pivot levels with volume data * Trend Continuation: Identify pivot levels that may continue or reverse trends Technical Specifications * Pine Script Version: 6 * Overlay: True (displays on price chart) * Performance: Optimized for up to 200 historical pivot periods * Compatibility: All trading instruments and timeframes * Data Source: OHLC-based pivot calculations with security function integration Trading Strategy Integration 1. Support/Resistance Trading: Enter trades at S1/R1 with stops beyond S2/R2 2. Pivot Bounce Strategy: Trade bounces from established pivot levels 3. Range Trading: Use Camarilla pivots for tight range strategies 4. Breakout Strategy: Enter breakouts with confirmation from pivot breaks 5. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Combine daily, weekly, and monthly pivots for comprehensive analysis This indicator serves as a comprehensive support and resistance analysis tool, providing traders with institutional-quality pivot point analysis across multiple calculation methods and timeframes. It combines professional-grade pivot point calculations with intuitive customization options, making it suitable for traders of all experience levels and trading styles. TRADING DISCLAIMER RISK WARNING Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. NO FINANCIAL ADVICE This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute: * Financial advice or investment recommendations * Buy/sell signals or trading signals * Professional investment advice * Legal, tax, or accounting guidance LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS Technical Analysis Limitations * Pivot points are mathematical calculations based on historical price data * No guarantee of accuracy of price levels or calculations * Markets can and do behave irrationally for extended periods * Past performance does not guarantee future results * Technical analysis should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis Data and Calculation Disclaimers * Calculations are based on available price data at the time of calculation * Data quality and availability may affect accuracy * Pivot levels may differ when calculated on different timeframes * Gaps and irregular market conditions may cause level failures * Extended hours trading may affect intraday pivot calculations Market Risks * Extreme market volatility can invalidate all technical levels * News events, economic announcements, and market manipulation can cause gaps * Liquidity issues may prevent execution at calculated levels * Currency fluctuations, inflation, and interest rate changes affect all levels * Black swan events and market crashes cannot be predicted by technical analysis USER RESPONSIBILITIES Due Diligence * You are solely responsible for your trading decisions * Conduct your own research before using this indicator * Verify calculations with multiple sources before trading * Consider multiple timeframes and confirm levels with other technical tools * Never rely solely on one indicator for trading decisions Risk Management * Always use proper risk management and position sizing * Set appropriate stop-losses for all positions * Never risk more than you can afford to lose * Consider the inherent risks of leverage and margin trading * Diversify your portfolio and trading strategies Professional Consultation * Consult with qualified financial advisors before trading * Consider your tax obligations and legal requirements * Understand the regulations in your jurisdiction * Seek professional advice for complex trading strategies LIMITATION OF LIABILITY Indemnification The creator and distributor of this indicator shall not be liable for: * Any trading losses, whether direct or indirect * Inaccurate or delayed price data * System failures or technical malfunctions * Loss of data or profits * Interruption of service or connectivity issues No Warranty This indicator is provided "as is" without warranties of any kind: * No guarantee of accuracy or completeness * No warranty of uninterrupted or error-free operation * No warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose * The software may contain bugs or errors Maximum Liability In no event shall the liability exceed the purchase price (if any) paid for this indicator. This limitation applies regardless of the theory of liability, whether contract, tort, negligence, or otherwise. REGULATORY COMPLIANCE Jurisdiction-Specific Risks * Regulations vary by country and region * Some jurisdictions prohibit or restrict certain trading strategies * Tax implications differ based on your location and trading frequency * Commodity futures and options trading may have additional requirements * Currency trading may be regulated differently than stock trading Professional Trading * If you are a professional trader, ensure compliance with all applicable regulations * Adhere to fiduciary duties and best execution requirements * Maintain required records and reporting * Follow market abuse regulations and insider trading laws TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS Data Sources * Calculations based on TradingView data feeds * Data accuracy depends on broker and exchange reporting * Historical data may be subject to adjustments and corrections * Real-time data may have delays depending on data providers Software Limitations * Internet connectivity required for proper operation * Software updates may change calculations or functionality * TradingView platform dependencies may affect performance * Third-party integrations may introduce additional risks MONEY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS Conservative Approach * Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade * Use position sizing based on volatility * Maintain adequate cash reserves * Avoid over-leveraging accounts Portfolio Management * Diversify across multiple strategies * Don't put all capital into one approach * Regularly review and adjust trading strategies * Maintain detailed trading records FINAL LEGAL NOTICES Acceptance of Terms * By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read and understood this disclaimer * You agree to assume all risks associated with trading * You confirm that you are legally permitted to trade in your jurisdiction Updates and Changes * This disclaimer may be updated without notice * Continued use constitutes acceptance of any changes * It is your responsibility to stay informed of updates Governing Law * This disclaimer shall be governed by the laws of the jurisdiction where the indicator was created * Any disputes shall be resolved in the appropriate courts * Severability clause: If any part of this disclaimer is invalid, the remainder remains enforceable REMEMBER: THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES IN TRADING. THE MAJORITY OF RETAIL TRADERS LOSE MONEY. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK. Contact Information: * Creator: Hitesh_Nimje * Phone: Contact@8087192915 * Source: Thought Magic Trading © HiteshNimje - All Rights Reserved This disclaimer should be prominently displayed whenever the indicator is shared, sold, or distributed to ensure users are fully aware of the risks and limitations involved in trading.
Pine Script® indicator
by HiteshNimje_2026
Shezab AlgoLabs EMA Trend UtilityOverview This tool is a clean and practical EMA trend utility built to help traders quickly understand market direction, trend regime, and momentum shifts. It plots a fast EMA and slow EMA using a branded color theme and highlights transitions between bullish and bearish conditions. The script also includes optional visual crossover markers to make regime changes easier to spot. How it works The relationship between the fast and slow EMA is used to classify the trend environment: When the fast EMA is above the slow EMA, the market is considered in a bullish phase. When the fast EMA is below the slow EMA, the market is considered in a bearish phase. The script also provides optional: Colored bars reflecting trend direction Crossover labels to highlight momentum shifts Background cloud to visually emphasize trending or neutral conditions Optional alerts for crossover events These visual features help traders recognize potential trend transitions without implying a complete trading system. How to use it This tool is designed as a supplemental decision aid. Traders can combine it with their preferred structure analysis, volume tools, oscillators, or confirmation methods. The crossover markers and alerts highlight shifts in trend behavior but are informational rather than mechanical buy/sell signals. Users should apply their own risk-management and entry criteria. Originality This script goes beyond a standard EMA by combining multiple elements into a single, cohesive trend-clarification tool: • regime coloring • optional cloud regions • crossover markers • visual dynamic styling using a unified aesthetic palette It is not a mashup of existing scripts; all components are integrated specifically to support traders who prefer a simple-yet-clear visual framework for understanding trend behavior.
Pine Script® indicator
by Interakktive
1
Position Size Calculator + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH)Position Size + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH) Position Size + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH) is a professional-grade risk management and execution module built for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT Traders who require accurate, repeatable, institution-style trade planning. This tool delivers precise position sizing, R:R modeling, leverage and margin projections, fee-adjusted PnL outcomes, and real-time execution metrics—all directly on the chart. Optimized for crypto, forex, and futures, it provides scalpers, day traders, and swing traders with the clarity needed to execute high-quality trades with confidence and consistency. What the Indicator Does Institutional Position Sizing Engine Calculates position size based on account balance, % risk, and SL distance. Supports custom minimum lot size rounding across crypto, FX, indices, and derivatives. Intelligent direction logic (Auto / Long / Short) based on SMC/ICT structure. Advanced Risk/Reward & Profit Modeling Real-time R:R ratio using actual rounded position size. Live PnL readout that updates with price movements. Gross & net profit projections with full fee deduction. Execution Planning with Draggable Levels Entry, SL, and TP levels fully draggable for fast scenario modeling. Automatic projected lines backward/forward with clean label alignment. TP and SL tags include % movement from Entry, ideal for SMC/ICT journaling. Precise modeling of real exchange fee structures Maker fee per side Taker fee per side Mixed fee modes (Maker entry, Taker exit, Average, etc.) Leverage & Margin Forecasting Margin requirements displayed for 3 customizable leverage settings. Helps traders understand capital commitment before executing the trade. Useful for futures, crypto perps, and CFD setups. Clean HUD Panel for Rapid Decision-Making A full professional trading panel displays: Target & actual risk Position size Entry / SL / TP TP/SL percentage distance Gross profit Net profit (after fees) Fees @ TP and @ SL Live PnL Margin requirements Optimized for SMC & ICT Workflows Perfect for traders using: Breakers, FVGs, OBs Liquidity sweeps Session models Precision entries (OTE, Displacement, Rebalancing) Leverage-based execution (crypto perps, futures) How to Use It Attach the indicator to your chart. Set account balance, risk %, fee model, and leverage presets. Drag Entry, SL, and TP to shape the setup. View instant calculations of: Position size; R:R; Net PnL after fees; Margin required Use it as your pre-trade checklist & execution model. Originality & Credits This script is an original creation by @PueblaATH, released under the MPL 2.0 license. It does not copy, modify, or repackage any existing TradingView code. All logic—including the fee engine, margin calculator, responsive HUD, dynamic risk model, and visual execution system—is authored specifically for this indicator.
Pine Script® indicator
by PueblaATH
Monthly DCA & Last 10 YearsThis Pine Script indicator simulates a Monthly Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy to help long-term investors visualize historical performance. Instead of complex timing, the script automatically executes a hypothetical fixed-dollar purchase (e.g., $100) on the first trading day of every month. It visually marks entry points with green "B" labels and plots a dynamic yellow line representing your Global Break-Even Price, allowing you to instantly see if the current price is above or below your average cost basis. To provide deep insight, it generates a detailed performance table in the bottom-right corner that breaks down metrics year-by-year—including total capital invested, shares/coins accumulated, and Profit/Loss percentage—along with a grand total summary of the entire investment period.
Pine Script® indicator
by oojeson
Pair Correlation Master [Macro]The Main Idea Trading represents a constant battle between Systemic Flows (the whole market moving together) and Idiosyncratic Moves (one specific asset moving on its own). This tool allows you to monitor a "basket" of 4 assets simultaneously (e.g., the major USD pairs). It answers the most important question in forex and multi-asset trading: "Is this move happening because the Dollar is weak, or because the Euro is strong?" It separates the "Signal" (the unique move) from the "Noise" (the herd movement). 1. The Chart Lines: The "Race" (Macro Trend) Think of the lines on your chart as a long-distance race. They visualize the performance of all 4 assets over the last 200 candles (adjustable). - Bunched Together: If all lines are moving in the same direction, the market is highly correlated. (e.g., "The Dollar is selling off everywhere"). - Fanning Out: If the lines are spreading apart, specific currencies are outperforming others. - The Zero Line: This is the starting line. --- Above 0: The pair is in a macro uptrend. --- Below 0: The pair is in a macro downtrend. 2. The Dashboard: The "Health Check" (Micro Data) The table in the top right gives you the immediate statistics for right now. - A. The Z-Score (The Rubber Band) This measures how "stretched" price is compared to its normal behavior. - White (< 2.0): Normal trading activity. - Orange (> 2.0): The price is stretching. Warning sign. - Red (> 3.0): Critical Stretch. The rubber band is pulled to its limit. Statistically, a pullback or pause is highly likely. B. The Star (★) The script automatically calculates the average behavior of your group. If one asset is behaving completely differently from the rest, it marks it with a Star (★). - Example: EURUSD, GBPUSD, and NZDUSD are flat, but AUDUSD is rallying hard. AUDUSD gets the ★. This is where the unique opportunity lies. 🎯 Best Uses: 4H & Daily Timeframes This indicator is tuned for "Macro" analysis. It works best on the "4-Hour" and "Daily" charts to filter out intraday noise and capture swing trading moves. - Strategy 1: The "Rubber Band" Snap (Mean Reversion) - Setup: Look for a Z-Score in the RED (> 3.0) on the Daily timeframe. - Action: This indicates an unsustainable move. Look for reversals or exhaustion patterns to trade against the trend back toward the mean. - Strategy 2: The "Lone Wolf" (Trend Following) - Setup: Look for the asset with the Star (★). - Action: If the whole basket is flat (Balanced), but the Star asset is breaking out, that creates a high-quality trend trade because that specific currency has its own catalyst (News/Earnings). - Strategy 3: Systemic Flows (Basket Trading) - Setup: The dashboard footer says "⚠️ SYSTEMIC MOVE." - Action: This means everything is moving together (e.g., a massive USD crash). Don't look for unique setups; just join the trend on the strongest pair. Dashboard Footer Key The bottom of the table summarizes the current state of the market for you: - Balanced / Rangebound: The market is quiet. Good for range trading. - Focus: : Trade this specific pair. It is moving independently. - Systemic Move: The whole basket is moving violently. Trade the momentum. p.s. Suggestion - apply and use on the chart rather than an oscillator.
Pine Script® indicator
by siLve_R88
Probability Cone█ Overview: Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move . While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31. In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution. Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return. The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the standard deviation in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown at the edges of the probability cone. The shown 68% and 95% probabilities correspond to the full range between the two blue lines of the cone (68%) and the two purple lines of the cone (95%). The probabilities suggest the % of outcomes or data that are expected to lie within this range. It does not suggest the probability of reaching those price levels. Note: All these probabilities are based on the normal distribution assumption for returns. It's the estimated probability, not the actual probability. █ Volatility Models : Sample SD : traditional sample standard deviation, most commonly used, use (n-1) period to adjust the bias Parkinson : Uses High/ Low to estimate volatility, assumes continuous no gap, zero mean no drift, 5 times more efficient than Close to Close Garman Klass : Uses OHLC volatility, zero drift, no jumps, about 7 times more efficient Yangzhang Garman Klass Extension : Added jump calculation in Garman Klass, has the same value as Garman Klass on markets with no gaps. about 8 x efficient Rogers : Uses OHLC, Assume non-zero mean volatility, handles drift, does not handle jump 8 x efficient. EWMA : Exponentially Weighted Volatility. Weight recently volatility more, more reactive volatility better in taking account of volatility autocorrelation and cluster. YangZhang : Uses OHLC, combines Rogers and Garmand Klass, handles both drift and jump, 14 times efficient, alpha is the constant to weight rogers volatility to minimize variance. Median absolute deviation : It's a more direct way of measuring volatility. It measures volatility without using Standard deviation. The MAD used here is adjusted to be an unbiased estimator. You can learn more about each of the volatility models in out Historical Volatility Estimators indicator. █ How to use Volatility Period is the sample size for variance estimation. A longer period makes the estimation range more stable less reactive to recent price. Distribution is more significant on larger sample size. A short period makes the range more responsive to recent price. Might be better for high volatility clusters. People usually assume the mean of returns to be zero. To be more accurate, we can consider the drift in price from calculating the geometric mean of returns. Drift happens in the long run, so short lookback periods are not recommended. The shape of the cone will be skewed and have a directional bias when the length of mean is short. It might be more adaptive to the current price or trend, but more accurate estimation should use a longer period for the mean. Using a short look back for mean will make the cone having a directional bias. When we are estimating the future range for time > 1, we typically assume constant volatility and the returns to be independent and identically distributed. We scale the volatility in term of time to get future range. However, when there's autocorrelation in returns( when returns are not independent), the assumption fails to take account of this effect. Volatility scaled with autocorrelation is required when returns are not iid. We use an AR(1) model to scale the first-order autocorrelation to adjust the effect. Returns typically don't have significant autocorrelation. Adjustment for autocorrelation is not usually needed. A long length is recommended in Autocorrelation calculation. Note: The significance of autocorrelation can be checked on an ACF indicator. ACF Time back settings shift the estimation period back by the input number. It's the origin of when the probability cone start to estimation it's range. E.g., When time back = 5, the probability cone start its prediction interval estimation from 5 bars ago. So for time back = 5 , it estimates the probability range from 5 bars ago to X number of bars in the future, specified by the Forecast Period (max 1000). █ Warnings: People should not blindly trust the probability. They should be aware of the risk evolves by using the normal distribution assumption. The real return has skewness and high kurtosis. While skewness is not very significant, the high kurtosis should be noticed. The Real returns have much fatter tails than the normal distribution, which also makes the peak higher. This property makes the tail ranges such as range more than 2SD highly underestimate the actual range and the body such as 1 SD slightly overestimate the actual range. For ranges more than 2SD, people shouldn't trust them. They should beware of extreme events in the tails. The uncertainty in future bars makes the range wider. The overestimate effect of the body is partly neutralized when it's extended to future bars. We encourage people who use this indicator to further investigate the Historical Volatility Estimators , Fast Autocorrelation Estimator , Expected Move and especially the Linear Moments Indicator . The probability is only for the closing price, not wicks. It only estimates the probability of the price closing at this level, not in between.
Pine Script® indicator
by Motgench
Watermark | Bar Time | Average Daily RangeMulti Info Panel & Watermark Multi Info Panel & Watermark is a utility indicator that displays several pieces of chart information in a single, customizable panel. It is designed to support intraday and swing analysis by making key data—such as symbol details, date, and average daily range—easy to see at a glance, as well as providing simple tools for notes and backtesting. Features Watermark / Custom Note Optional text overlay that can be used as a watermark or personal note. Can display a strategy name, reminder, or any other user-defined label on the chart. Ticker Info Shows information about the currently active symbol on the chart (for example, symbol name and other basic details depending on the inputs). Helps keep track of which market or pair is being analyzed, especially when using multiple charts. Current Date Displays the current date directly on the chart. Useful for screenshots, journaling, and documenting analysis. Average Daily Range (ADR) Calculates the average daily range of the active symbol over a user-defined number of recent days. Helps visualize how much price typically moves in a day, which can support position sizing, target setting, or volatility awareness within your own trading approach. Open Bar Time Marker Marks the open time of a selected bar (for example, a session open or a specific reference bar). Primarily intended as a visual aid for manual backtesting and reviewing historical price action. Usage Use the watermark and ticker info to keep your charts labeled and organized. Refer to the ADR readout to understand typical daily volatility of the instrument you are studying. Use the date and open bar time marker when creating screenshots, trade journals, or when replaying historical sessions for review. This script does not generate trading signals and does not guarantee any performance or results. It is provided solely as an informational and visualization tool. Always combine it with your own analysis, risk management, and decision-making. Nothing in this indicator or description should be considered financial advice.
Pine Script® indicator
by AtomicPips
VWAP + RSI Bounce Strategy Hariss 369VWAP + RSI Bounce Strategy This strategy combines VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) and RSI momentum shift to capture high-probability reversal bounces. The idea is simple: price often reacts strongly around VWAP, which represents the true intraday fair value. When price pulls back towards VWAP and then bounces away with strength, it often marks a continuation move. A long signal forms when: Price touches or slightly dips below VWAP, showing a pullback Candle closes back above VWAP, confirming a strong bullish bounce RSI turns bullish (crosses 50 or crosses above its smoothing) A sell signal forms in the opposite conditions with a bearish bounce below VWAP. This combination filters out weak reactions and focuses only on momentum-backed bounces. Trend-colored VWAP helps visualize directional bias more clearly—green when VWAP is rising and red when falling. This approach is best used in trending markets and works well across intraday timeframes.
Pine Script® strategy
by Hariss369
RS Rating Multi-TimeframeRS Rating Multi-Timeframe (IBD-Style Relative Strength) Short Description: IBD-style Relative Strength Rating (1-99) comparing any stock's performance vs the S&P 500 across multiple timeframes. Full Description: Overview This indicator calculates an IBD-style Relative Strength (RS) Rating that measures a stock's price performance relative to the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. The rating scale ranges from 1 (weakest) to 99 (strongest), telling you how a stock ranks against all other stocks in terms of relative performance. How It Works The RS Rating uses a weighted formula based on quarterly performance: Last 63 days (1 quarter): 40% weight Last 126 days (2 quarters): 20% weight Last 189 days (3 quarters): 20% weight Last 252 days (4 quarters): 20% weight This weighting emphasizes recent performance while still accounting for longer-term strength. Rating Interpretation 90-99 (Elite): Top 10% of all stocks - exceptional relative strength 80-89 (Excellent): Top 20% - strong leadership candidates 50-79 (Average): Middle of the pack 30-49 (Below Average): Underperforming the market 1-29 (Weak): Bottom 30% - avoid or consider shorting Features Multi-Timeframe: Works on any timeframe from 1-hour to weekly (always uses daily data for calculation) Moving Average: Optional EMA or SMA of the RS Rating to smooth signals Visual Zones: Color-coded zones for quick identification of strength/weakness Signal Markers: Triangles appear when RS crosses key levels (80 and 30) Info Table: Displays current RS Rating, change, MA value, and raw score Alerts: Built-in alerts for key crossover events Settings Show Moving Average: Toggle MA line on/off MA Length: Period for the moving average (default: 10) MA Type: Choose between EMA or SMA Benchmark Index: Change the comparison index (default: SP:SPX) Show Rating Table: Toggle the info table on/off How To Use Buy candidates: Look for stocks with RS Rating above 80, ideally rising Avoid: Stocks with RS Rating below 30 or falling rapidly Confirmation: Use RS above its moving average as additional confirmation Divergence: Watch for RS making new highs before price (bullish) or new lows before price (bearish) Credits RS Rating calculation methodology inspired by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and adapted from Fred6724's RS Rating script. Percentile calibration based on analysis of ~6,600 US stocks. Tags: relative strength, RS rating, IBD, momentum, CAN SLIM, benchmark, SPX, market leaders, stock ranking Category: Relative Strength
Pine Script® indicator
by rwalk1979
PoC Migration Map [BackQuant]PoC Migration Map A volume structure tool that builds a side volume profile, extracts rolling Points of Control (PoCs), and maps how those PoCs migrate through time so you can see where value is moving, how volume clusters shift, and how that aligns with trend regime. What this is This indicator combines a classic volume profile with a segmented PoC trail. It looks back over a configurable window, splits that window into bins by price, and shows you where volume has concentrated. On top of that, it slices the lookback into fixed bar segments, finds the local PoC in each segment, and plots those PoCs as a chain of nodes across the chart. The result is a "migration map" of value: A side volume profile that shows how volume is distributed over the recent price range. A sequence of PoC nodes that show where local value has been accepted over time. Lines that connect those PoCs to reveal the path of value migration. Optional trend coloring based on EMA 12 and EMA 21, so each PoC also encodes trend regime. Used together, this gives you a structural read on where the market has actually traded size, how "value" is moving, and whether that movement is aligned or fighting the current trend. Core components Lookback volume profile - a side histogram built from all closes and volumes in the chosen lookback window. Segmented PoC trail - rolling PoCs computed over fixed bar segments, plotted as nodes in time. Trend heatmap - optional color mapping of PoC nodes using EMA 12 versus EMA 21. PoC labels - optional labels on every Nth PoC for easier reading and referencing. How it works 1) Global lookback and binning You choose: Lookback Bars - how far back to collect data. Number of Bins - how finely to split the price range. The script: Finds the highest high and lowest low in the lookback. Computes the total price range and divides it into equal binCount slices. Assigns each bar's close and volume into the appropriate price bin. This creates a discretized volume distribution across the entire lookback. 2) Side volume profile If "Show Side Profile" is enabled, a right-hand volume profile is drawn: Each bin becomes a horizontal bar anchored at a configurable "Right Offset" from the current bar. The horizontal width of each bar is proportional to that bin's volume relative to the maximum volume bin. Optionally, volume values and percentages are printed inside the profile bars. Color and transparency are controlled by: Base Profile Color and its transparency. A gradient that uses relative volume to modulate opacity between lower volume and higher volume bins. Profile Width (%) - how wide the maximum bin can extend in bars. This gives you an at-a-glance view of the volume landscape for the chosen lookback window. 3) Segmenting for PoC migration To build the PoC trail, the lookback is divided into segments: Bars per Segment - bars in each local cluster. Number of Segments - how many segments you want to see back in time. For each segment: The script uses the same price bins and accumulates volume only from bars in that segment. It finds the bin with the highest volume in that segment, which is the local PoC for that segment. It sets the PoC price to the center of that bin. It finds the "mid bar" of the segment and places the PoC node at that time on the chart. This is repeated for each segment from older to newer, so you get a chain of PoCs that shows how local value has migrated over time. 4) Trend regime and color coding The indicator precomputes: EMA 12 (Fast). EMA 21 (Slow). For each PoC: It samples EMA 12 and EMA 21 at the mid bar of that segment. It computes a simple trend score as fast EMA minus slow EMA. If trend heatmap is enabled, PoC nodes (and the lines between them) are colored by: Trend Up Color if EMA 12 is above EMA 21. Trend Down Color if EMA 12 is below EMA 21. Trend Flat Color if they are roughly equal. If the trend heatmap is disabled, PoC color is instead based on PoC migration: If the current PoC is above the previous PoC, use the Up PoC Color. If the current PoC is below the previous PoC, use the Down PoC Color. If unchanged, use the Flat PoC Color. 5) Connecting PoCs and labels Once PoC prices and times are known: Each PoC is connected to the previous one with a dotted line, using the PoC's color. Optional labels are placed next to every Nth PoC: Label text uses a simple "PoC N" scheme. Label background uses a configurable label background color. Label border is colored by the PoC's own color for visual consistency. This turns the PoCs into a visual path that can be read like a "value trajectory" across the chart. What it plots When fully enabled, you will see: A right-sided volume profile for the chosen lookback window, built from volume by price. Colored horizontal bars representing each price bin's relative volume. Optional volume text showing each bin's volume and its percentage of the profile maximum. A series of PoC nodes spaced across the chart at the mid point of each segment. Dotted lines connecting those PoCs to show the migration path of value. Optional PoC labels at each Nth node for easier reference. Color-coding of PoCs and lines either by EMA 12 / 21 trend regime or by up/down PoC drift. Reading PoC migration and market pressure Side profile as a pressure map The side profile shows where trading has been most active: Thick, opaque bars represent high volume zones and possible high interest or acceptance areas. Thin, faint bars represent low volume zones, potential rejection or transition areas. When price trades near a high volume bin, the market is sitting on an area of prior acceptance and size. When price moves quickly through low volume bins, it often does so with less friction. This gives you a static map of where the market has been willing to do business within your lookback. PoC trail as a value migration map The PoC chain represents "where value has lived" over time: An upward sloping PoC trail indicates value migrating higher. Buyers have been willing to transact at increasingly higher prices. A downward sloping trail indicates value migrating lower and sellers pushing the center of mass down. A flat or oscillating trail indicates balance or rotational behaviour, with no clear directional acceptance. Taken together, you can interpret: Side profile as "where the volume mass sits", a static pressure field. PoC trail as "how that mass has moved", the dynamic path of value. Trend heatmap as a regime overlay When PoCs are colored by the EMA 12 / 21 spread: Green PoCs mark segments where the faster EMA is above the slower EMA, that is, a local uptrend regime. Red PoCs mark segments where the faster EMA is below the slower EMA, that is, a local downtrend regime. Gray PoCs mark flat or ambiguous trend segments. This lets you answer questions like: "Is value migrating higher while the trend regime is also up?" (trend confirming value). "Is value migrating higher but most PoCs are red?" (value against the prevailing trend). "Has value started to roll over just as PoCs flip from green to red?" (early regime transition). Key settings General Settings Lookback Bars - how many bars back to use for both the global volume profile and segment profiles. Number of Bins - how many price bins to split the high to low range into. Profile Settings Show Side Profile - toggle the right-hand volume profile on or off. Profile Width (%) - how wide the largest volume bar is allowed to be in terms of bars. Base Profile Color - the starting color for profile bars, with transparency. Show Volume Values - if enabled, print volume and percent for each non-zero bin. Profile Text Color - color for volume text inside the profile. PoC Migration Settings Show PoC Migration - toggle the PoC trail plotting. Bars per Segment - the number of bars contained in each segment. Number of Segments - how many segments to build backwards from the current bar. Horizontal Spacing (bars) - spacing between PoC nodes when drawn. (Used to separate PoCs horizontally.) Label Every Nth PoC - draw labels at every Nth PoC (0 or 1 to suppress labels). Right Offset (bars) - horizontal offset to anchor the side profile on the right. Up PoC Color - color used when a PoC is higher than the previous one, if trend heatmap is off. Down PoC Color - color used when a PoC is lower than the previous one, if trend heatmap is off. Flat PoC Color - color used when the PoC is unchanged, if trend heatmap is off. PoC Label Background - background color for PoC labels. Trend Heatmap Settings Color PoCs By Trend (EMA 12 / 21) - when enabled, overrides simple up/down coloring and uses EMA-based trend colors. Fast EMA - length for the fast EMA. Slow EMA - length for the slow EMA. Trend Up Color - color for PoCs in a bullish EMA regime. Trend Down Color - color for PoCs in a bearish EMA regime. Trend Flat Color - color for neutral or flat EMA regimes. Trading applications 1) Value migration and trend confirmation Use the PoC path to see if value is following price or lagging it: In a healthy uptrend, price, PoCs, and trend regime should all lean higher. In a weakening trend, price may still move up, but PoCs flatten or start drifting lower, suggesting fewer participants are accepting the new highs. In a downtrend, persistent downward PoC migration confirms that sellers are winning the value battle. 2) Identifying acceptance and rejection zones Combine the side profile with PoC locations: High volume bins near clustered PoCs mark strong acceptance zones, good areas to watch for re-tests and decision points. PoCs that quickly jump across low volume areas can indicate rejection and fast repricing between value zones. High volume zones with mixed PoC colors may signal balance or prolonged negotiation. 3) Structuring entries and exits Use the map to refine trade location: Fade trades against value migration are higher risk unless you see clear signs of exhaustion or regime change. Pullbacks into prior PoC zones in the direction of the current PoC slope can offer higher quality entries. Stops placed beyond major accepted zones (clusters of PoCs and high volume bins) are less likely to be hit by random noise. 4) Regime transitions Watch how PoCs behave as the EMA regime changes: A flip in EMA 12 versus EMA 21, coupled with a turn in PoC slope, is a strong signal that value is beginning to move with the new trend. If EMAs flip but PoC migration does not follow, the trend signal may be early or false. A weakening PoC path (lower highs in PoCs) while trend colors are still green can warn of a late-stage trend. Best practices Start with a moderate lookback such as 200 to 300 bars and a moderate bin count such as 20 to 40. Too many bins can make the profile overly granular and sparse. Align "Bars per Segment" with your trading horizon. For example, 5 to 10 bars for intraday, 10 to 20 bars for swing. Use the profile and PoC trail as structural context rather than as a direct buy or sell signal. Combine with your existing setups for timing. Pay attention to clusters of PoCs at similar prices. Those are areas where the market has repeatedly accepted value, and they often matter on future tests. Notes This is a structural volume tool, not a complete trading system. It does not manage execution, position sizing or risk management. Use it to understand: Where the bulk of trading has occurred in your chosen window. How the center of volume has migrated over time. Whether that migration is aligned with or fighting the current trend regime. By turning PoC evolution into a visible path and adding a trend-aware heatmap, the PoC Migration Map makes it easier to see how value has been moving, where the market is likely to feel "heavy" or "light", and how that structure fits into your trading decisions.
Pine Script® indicator
by BackQuant
TF7 Option vs Index Change RatioOverview This indicator helps traders visualise the strength and direction of an option's price movement compared to its underlying index (NIFTY or SENSEX). It calculates a Change Ratio, which is the percentage move in the option compared to the index movement during the same bar. This is especially useful for intraday traders looking for signs of momentum, divergence, or unusual strength/weakness in option pricing. How It Works The ratio is calculated as: (Option LTP − Option Open) / (Index Close − Index Open) The value is capped between −10 and +10 to filter out extreme or invalid spikes. The ratio is displayed as a color-coded column chart: 🟩 Green bars: Option is moving in the same direction as the index. 🟥 Red bars: Option is underperforming or moving opposite to the index. A compact table shows the last 5 bars of: Option price change (with +/− sign) Index price change Calculated ratio (also color-coded) You can toggle the table visibility in the settings. Inputs & Features Select underlying index: NIFTY or SENSEX Toggle the data table display Clean formatting with signed values and conditional color highlights ⚠️ Disclaimer This is a visual analysis tool, not a buy/sell signal. Always validate with your trading strategy and risk management #OptionsTrading, #NIFTY, #SENSEX, #ChangeRatio, #IndexAnalysis, #Momentum, #Divergence, #Intraday
Pine Script® indicator
by TrendFinder007
2
NYMO Fib Levels - RGNYMO is a single-session tool built around Fibonacci projections from the New York morning move. It automatically marks the NYMO session, measures its high–low range and projects your custom fib multiples above and below price, with every level drawn and labelled so you always know exactly which multiple you are trading around. The core of the script is the 12:00–12:30 opening window. That first 30 minutes is treated as the price-discovery phase of the session: it captures the initial burst of liquidity, the repricing of overnight positions and the first real directional push. The high and low of 12:00–12:30 form the opening range, and all fib projections are anchored to that move, turning the very first half-hour into a structured map for the rest of the session. On top of the fib framework, NYMO can show the NYMO session box, compare the current range to recent NYMO statistics, and trigger alerts when price breaks the NYMO high or low or trades through key fib areas. It is built for traders who only care about the New York morning and want all of their structure, targets and alerts driven by fibs from that one defined opening window.
Pine Script® indicator
by rupeshgonte
Per Bak Self-Organized CriticalityTL;DR: This indicator measures market fragility. It measures the system's vulnerability to cascade failures and phase transitions. I've added four independent stress vectors: tail risk, volatility regime, credit stress, and positioning extremes. This allows us to quantify how susceptible markets are to disproportionate moves from small shocks, similar to how a steep sandpile is primed for avalanches. Avalanches, forest fires, earthquakes, pandemic outbreaks, and market crashes. What do they all have in common? They are not random. These events follow power laws - stable systems that naturally evolve toward critical states where small triggers can unleash catastrophic cascades. For example, if you are building a sandpile, there will be a point with a little bit additional sand will cause a landslide. Markets build fragility grain by grain, like a sandpile approaching avalanche. The Per Bak Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) indicator detects when the markets are a few grains away from collapse. This indicator is highly inspired by the work of Per Bak related to the science of self-organized criticality . As Bak said: "The earthquake does not 'know how large it will become'. Thus, any precursor state of a large event is essentially identical to a precursor state of a small event." For markets, this means: We cannot predict individual crash size from initial conditions We can predict statistical distribution of crashes We can identify periods of increased systemic risk (proximity to critical state) BTW, this is a forwarding looking indicator and doesn't reprint. :) The Story of Per Bak In 1987, Danish physicist Per Bak and his colleagues discovered an important pattern in nature: self-organized criticality. Their sandpile experiment revealed something: drop grains of sand one by one onto a pile, and the system naturally evolves toward a critical state. Most grains cause nothing. Some trigger small slides. But occasionally a single grain triggers a massive avalanche. The key insight is that we cannot predict which grain will trigger the avalanche, but you can measure when the pile has reached a critical state. Why Markets Are the Ultimate SOC System? Financial markets exhibit all the hallmarks of self-organized criticality: Interconnected agents (traders, institutions, algorithms) with feedback loops Non-linear interactions where small events can cascade through the system Power-law distributions of returns (fat tails, not normal distributions) Natural evolution toward fragility as leverage builds, correlations tighten, and positioning crowds Phase transitions where calm markets suddenly shift to crisis regimes Mathematical Foundation Power Law Distributions Traditional finance assumes returns follow a normal distribution. "Markets return 10% on average." But I disagree. Markets follow power laws: P(x) ∝ x^(-α) Where P(x) is the probability of an event of size x, and α is the power law exponent (typically 3-4 for financial markets). What this means: Small moves happen constantly. Medium moves are less frequent. Catastrophic moves are rare but follow predictable probability distributions. The "fat tails" are features of critical systems. Critical Slowing Down As systems approach phase transitions, they exhibit critical slowing down—reduced ability to absorb shocks. Mathematically, this appears as: τ ∝ |T - T_c|^(-ν) Where τ is the relaxation time, T is the current state, T_c is the critical threshold, and ν is the critical exponent. Translation: Near criticality, markets take longer to recover from perturbations. Fragility compounds. Component Aggregation & Non-Linear Emergence The Per Bak SOC our index aggregates four normalized components (each scaled 0-100) with tunable weights: SOC = w₁·C_tail + w₂·C_vol + w₃·C_credit + w₄·C_position Default weights (you can change this): w₁ = 0.34 (Tail Risk via SKEW) w₂ = 0.26 (Volatility Regime via VIX term structure) w₃ = 0.18 (Credit Stress via HYG/LQD + TED spread) w₄ = 0.22 (Positioning Extremes via Put/Call ratio) Each component uses percentile ranking over a 252-day lookback combined with absolute thresholds to capture both relative regime shifts and extreme absolute levels. The Four Pillars Explained 1. Tail Risk (SKEW Index) Measures options market pricing of fat-tail events. High SKEW indicates elevated outlier probability. C_tail = 0.7·percentrank(SKEW, 252) + 0.3·((SKEW - 115)/0.5) 2. Volatility Regime (VIX Term Structure) Combines VIX level with term structure slope. Backwardation signals acute stress. C_vol = 0.4·VIX_level + 0.35·VIX_slope + 0.25·VIX_ratio 3. Credit Stress (HYG/LQD + TED Spread) Tracks high-yield deterioration versus investment-grade and interbank lending stress. C_credit = 0.65·percentrank(LQD/HYG, 252) + 0.35·(TED/0.75)·100 4. Positioning Extremes (Put/Call Ratio) Detects extreme hedging demand through percentile ranking and z-score analysis. C_position = 0.6·percentrank(P/C, 252) + 0.4·zscore_normalized What the Indicator Really Measures? Not Volatility but Fragility Markets Going Down ≠ Fragility Building (actually when markets go down, risk and fragility are released) The 0-100 Scale & Regime Thresholds The indicator outputs a 0-100 fragility score with four regimes: 🟢 Safe (0-39): System resilient, can absorb normal shocks 🟡 Building (40-54): Early fragility signs, watch for deterioration 🟠 Elevated (55-69): System vulnerable 🔴 Critical (70-100): Highly susceptible to cascade failures Further Reading for Nerds Bak, P., Tang, C., & Wiesenfeld, K. (1987). "Self-organized criticality: An explanation of 1/f noise." Physical Review Letters. Bak, P. & Chen, K. (1991). "Self-organized criticality." Scientific American. Bak, P. (1996). How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. Copernicus. Feedback is appreciated :)
Pine Script® indicator
by HenriqueCentieiro
3