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Dow Jones technical analysis ahead of FOMCThe US headline CPI data released last week surprised the market with a smaller drop than expected. As such, a higher chance is being given to a 75-basis-points rate hike in the upcoming September FOMC meeting. The US stock market reacted with a major sell-off last week, signalling that the summer rally has overstayed its welcome. The Dow Jones plunged by 1,300 points or 4.2% last week. The S&P500 dropped by 5.2%, while the NASDAQ declined by 6.0%. The interest rate decision from the Fed due this Wednesday (UTC -4) will be a significant event for US markets this week. The market is currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 75bps rate hike and a 15% chance of a 100bps hike. Looking at the current price action for the Dow Jones in combination with the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator, indicates that the downside's strength still present and may continue to stick around. The Schaff Trend Cycle is currently sitting far below the 25 level at sub-5. However, this indicator’s current condition may also be a sign that the Dow Jones may be oversold. In such a case, we might expect the index to perform a reversal and retest the 31,200 level, before continuing the downtrend. Traders looking for a counter-trend trade might want to watch and wait for the Schaff Trend Cycle to close above the 25 levels. With the upcoming FOMC meeting and the expectation of a 75bps or greater rate hike, we may expect a reaction to the downside during the day and a hitting of the 30,000-support area. Breaking below the 30,000-demand zone will open up the 29,500 to 29,000 targets.
BLACKBULL:US30
by BlackBull_Markets
Dow JonesI have put before you what I perceive to be the DJIA analysis based on EW. Since the DJIA history is far more complex and goes way way back even before we had any sort of exchange in India, I have taken the Liberty of avoiding the minute/minor waves as the Chart would get tooooo Messy. However, I have marked out the wave counts from 29568, and so far it is playing to the HILT as per EW. On the Current wave going ON on DJIA. We have completed i/3 and are currently in ii/3 down. This ii/3 can be calculated @ 38.2 to 61.8% of the ENTIRE RISE from 18213 to 36679. If you calculate it, you will get a figure of 29600 @ 38.2% retracement. However I have gone just a Little bit below to show it as a THROW UNDER which it will do to throw out every BULL. The WORLD is Totally Bearish and BULL MARKETS are created on FEAR ( covid) ( ukrain) etc etc. History shows and Each One of you needs to see this..... whenever Interest rates have Risen, Markets have had a Temporary BLIP downwards, but in the subsequent years have given a CAGR of almost 12% more or less. To Me, it seems like WORLD MARKETS WILL ALLIGN WITH THE DOW JONES NOW. They are all going to move forward in very similar directions/patterns/trends. Nifty will align with the DJIA as both are in wave ii/3 currently. Once the Divergence on Both comes to some sort of Same Level...... markets are likely to take off.
DJ:DJI
by deepgups
DOW JONESThis chart of the DOW JONES was posted by Me a few days ago. Just a follow up of how things played out. Just look where it dropped from and and where it stopped exactly. I have REPEATEDLY explained to you all HOW.... WHEN.... WHYYYYY.... 1. When you are Convinced of your work, when you are convinced of your set up.... you STOP asking people and follow your set up ONLY. You DO NOT follow the HERD, you stand away from it and follow a different direction. I cannot teach any of you how to trade by just posting charts and Indicators . BUT what I can do is to HELP you all. Eventually the person who will Rise/Fall is YOU. How badly it hurts when you fall is what You alone as an Individual can understand and no one else. The ONLY other person who will feel you PAIN is your MOTHER. 2. Instead of coming out into the markets and trying out your Luck at Gambling..... Do your home work 1st. There is enough material on the Net regarding EW. Trading is a SCIENCE and Not a CASINO 3. As stupid as I may sound, Yesterday I liquidated my entire portfolio. Why????? Let Us ASSUME I am completely WRONG. But here is the LOGIC to it. Assume that we are in the 1st LEG of another STRUCTURAL BULL CYCLE. We could very well be, and my markings are ALL WRONG, then what ???? It would ONLY Mean that we are in the 1st wave UP, BUT a 2 down will follow at some point. That is the GOSPEL TRUTH.... 12345. The 2 down is the Most LETHAL wave as it takes your PANTS off. It compels you to GET OUT of the Market. Well, I will wait for the 2 down to Complete with patience if I am wrong. At MOST, I'll loose a few hundred point??? SO BE IT. When the 2 down is happening MOST would have FLED the markets by then, this is where I will BUY at Lower rates.
DJ:DJI
by deepgups
Dow JonesI should be keeping my Mouth Shut here as this is an OPEN FORUM for everyone to see. Yet I am just STICKING my NECK out to take all the blame when it does'nt happen. 1. Who amongst you remembers the TOP of 18600 odd Last year and figured out that while we TOPPED out, Dow was Still Rising... The HERD moved IN to BUY n BUY n BUY for Further upside, but while the Dow was still Rising, we fell from 18600 to 15200 just a few months ago. The Most surprising part is this. BEAR RALLYS Downwards happen very fast, but THE BULL RALLYS TAKE TIME. 2. Now figure this OUT...... from 18600 to 15200 odd, it took Almost 8-9 months, While from 15200 to 17900 ( CURRENT NOW), we have taken just 2 months. That SURPRISES ME !!!!!! 3. So WHY are we RALLYING INTO this phase ????? Because the DOW has made an INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM and Rallied from there. Therefore helping the Indian Market to Complete its waves, and to Suck in the SUCKERS. 4. Do any of you still expect 20000....21700...... etc etc etc on the NIFTY while the Dow keeps falling hereon???? 5. Lastly, I have give the DOWNSIDE TARGETS for the DOW. This is based on some complex calculations/ Fibonacci calculations. I do not mean to SCARE anyone, nor is it my Intention to do so here. All I am saying is this........ STAY CAUTIOUS
DJ:DJI
by deepgups
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