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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUD/USD Bulls Stay Defensive Ahead of NFP as Iran Risks Boost USThe Australian Dollar remains under pressure near 0.7025, with bulls sidelined as geopolitical tensions bolster the safe‑haven US Dollar (USD) ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Iran Strait of Hormuz Risk: Optimism over a US‑Iran peace deal has faded after reports that Tehran is reviewing a draft plan to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz until compensation is paid. This raises the geopolitical risk premium, supporting USD and capping AUD/USD upside. Red Sea Escalation: Iran‑backed Houthi forces struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, fueling concerns over energy supply disruptions. Oil Spike & Inflation Fears: Crude prices jumped overnight, reviving inflation worries and strengthening bets for a potential US Federal Reserve rate hike.
Short
by IndexTrader13
AUD/USD 4H Chart — A Bearish Reversal Setup Is Taking ShapeThis is my AUD/USD 4-hour chart and this is how I see the current structure. After a strong move higher, price is now showing signs of exhaustion and has started forming a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly visible, but the setup is not confirmed yet. The key level to watch is the neckline support. I want to see a strong break and a candle close below this area before considering any sell opportunity. If the neckline breaks successfully, it could signal that sellers are taking control again and open the way for a move toward the 0.69200 area. Until that confirmation happens, this is only a potential reversal pattern, not a completed setup. If buyers manage to defend the neckline and push price back higher, this idea will no longer be valid. Entry Reasons: Head and Shoulders reversal structure Strong rejection from resistance Possible bearish momentum shift Neckline breakdown confirmation needed
Short
by Fiona_Forex
AUDUSD 1H: Reclaiming the Base & Late Seller Trap (Long Setup)1. Market Context On the 1H chart, AUDUSD has successfully completed a deep liquidity sweep to flush out early retail buyers. After dropping below the local support to hit the absolute low of 0.65138 (marked by "Buyer Lose" and "No Buyer"), the price saw immediate institutional absorption. The market is now rallying and consolidating just below the local descending trendline. A confirmed breakout here will trigger a powerful short squeeze toward the major overhead resistance. 2. Sentiment & Price Trap Analysis • The Retail Buyer Shakeout (Buyer Lose): The sharp downward manipulation to 0.65138 successfully hunted the stop losses of weak-handed retail buyers who entered long positions too early. • The Late Seller Trap (No Buyer): As the price broke down looking extremely bearish, momentum retail traders aggressively chased the move by opening short positions near the bottom. However, the lack of follow-through and the quick rejection confirm that selling pressure has completely dried up, leaving these late sellers heavily trapped. • The Squeeze Catalyst (Break Signal): A decisive 1H candle close above the 0.65811 level (Break Signal) will instantly force these trapped sellers to cover their positions (by buying back). Their combined stop losses (buy stops) along with new buying momentum will act as rocket fuel to push the price toward the major descending trendline and key liquidity pool near 0.67200 (marked "Seller Wait Here"). 3. Trade Setup We target a high-reward long entry on the confirmed breakout of the local trendline to ride the short squeeze momentum. • Entry Zone: 0.65811 (Buying the confirmed breakout close / Break Signal) • Stop Loss (SL): 0.65138 (Placed safely below the ultimate manipulation low) • Take Profit (TP): 0.67200 (Targeting the major overhead descending trendline and key resistance) • Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx 2.1:1
Long
by gongroupvn
AUDUSD LONG Although the price action on AUD/USD isn't particularly clear, the pair is still trading above the 50 EMA on the weekly timeframe. Over the past two weeks, we've also seen strong bullish rejections, suggesting that buyers are still defending lower prices. The 10 EMA and 20 EMA are converging, which indicates slowing momentum, but there's still a reasonable possibility that price could break above the previous week's high. PDH is cleared. On the 4-hour timeframe, after the recent rejection, I can identify a good Fibonacci setup. Price has closed above the 61.8% retracement of the last bullish impulse, which adds confluence for a potential long position. My plan is to look for a long entry and target the previous week's high, with the possibility of extending the target slightly beyond it if momentum continues. That said, this isn't a perfect setup. There is still a chance that price could break below the previous week's low. Additionally, the 4-hour break of structure isn't very convincing since it was only a wick break rather than a candle close above the level. Overall, this isn't an A+ setup, but it's a valid trade idea with enough confluence to keep on my watchlist.
Long
by Coffee_addict_trader
AUDUSD: From Uptrend to Breakdown → 0.68850?AUDUSD has maintained a fairly steady uptrend recently, respecting an ascending trendline throughout the move. However, the structure has started to shift after price broke below that trendline. A break of a well-tested trendline like this is often the first sign that bullish momentum is fading and sellers are beginning to regain control. I’ll be watching for a pullback toward the broken trendline before considering any short setup. Ideally, I want to see a clear rejection or a strong confirmation candle around the retest area, as that would increase the probability of a bearish continuation. If that scenario plays out, my target will be 0.68850, in line with the current breakout direction. This is simply my personal view based on the current price structure, not financial advice. I’ll still wait for confirmation before taking any position and always prioritize proper risk management.
Short
by Laura_Bennett
how I Combine Market Structure, Order Blocks & Fibonacci This chart explains how I use Market Structure, Order Blocks, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement to identify high-probability trading setups. My process: ✅ Identify the current market structure. ✅ Wait for a Change of Character (CHOCH) to confirm a potential trend change. ✅ Look for a Break of Structure (BOS) in the new trend direction. ✅ Mark the strongest Order Block (Demand Zone). ✅ Use the 0.618 Fibonacci level for additional confirmation. ✅ Wait patiently for price to retrace into the zone before looking for an entry. The best setups usually occur when: Market Structure confirms the trend. BOS confirms momentum. The Order Block aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Price returns to the Demand Zone after creating liquidity. ⚠️ This chart is shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering any trade. #Trading #Forex #AUDUSD #MarketStructure #CHOCH #BOS #OrderBlock #DemandZone #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingEducation #TradingView
by sanketsingh81
5
How to Identify a Trend Change (CHOCH) Using Market Structure Many traders enter trades too early because they mistake a small pullback for a trend reversal. In this example, the market first forms a bearish structure with Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). After that, price breaks the previous Lower High, creating a Change of Character (CHOCH), which is the first sign of a potential Trend Change. However, a CHOCH alone is not enough. Wait for additional confirmation such as: ✅ Liquidity Sweep (IDM) ✅ Break of Structure (BOS) ✅ Strong Order Block ✅ Price reaction from key support/resistance or Fibonacci levels The chart demonstrates how market structure helps identify a possible trend reversal before looking for buying opportunities. Key Learning: Understand the current market structure first. Wait for a confirmed CHOCH (Trend Change). Don't buy or sell based on a single candle. Combine CHOCH with confluence for higher-probability setups. 📚 This chart is shared for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always use proper risk management before taking any trade. #Trading #Forex #AUDUSD #MarketStructure #CHOCH #TrendChange #BOS #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #Education #TradingView
by sanketsingh81
AUDUSD getting ready for a rally?After a decline of 5.6% that we saw form 6th may 2026 to 30th June 2026, price has formed a bottoming formation at a strong Support, from where it has seen bounce backs earlier, after the breakout of the bearish trendline and sustaining comfortably above the neckline we might expect a good rally from the current levels. Important levels: 0.6921 is an immediate support and below it 0.6883 can act as strong support. where as no any significant resistance is seen below 0.7041. Structurally AUDUSD seems to be transforming form bearish to bullish. In summary: Bullish for upcoming days but for fresh entries wait for the pullbacks! For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice, Always use strict Risk management measures. Regards CrazyTrades247.
Long
by CrazyTrades247
2
AUDUSD Sellers Stay Active Below 0.6900AUDUSD is struggling below the 0.6900 level, and the bounce attempts still look weak. After the sharp fall from 0.7030, price has not shown enough buying strength to suggest a real reversal. The macro picture also favours caution. USD strength, Fed rate expectations, softer Australian inflation, and weaker sentiment toward risk currencies are all keeping pressure on the Aussie. Trade Setup: Sell Zone: 0.6920 – 0.6945 Stop Loss: 0.6970 Take Profit 1: 0.6830 Take Profit 2: 0.6800
Short
by Skyler_Fx
AUDUSD Pullback Looks Weak Below 0.7100AUDUSD has recovered from the 0.6990 area, but buyers are still struggling near 0.7080–0.7090. The rebound looks slow, and recent candles suggest hesitation rather than strong bullish commitment. For traders, this remains a sell-on-rally setup unless price breaks back above 0.7100 with strength. Trade Setup: Sell Zone: 0.7080 – 0.7090 Stop Loss: 0.7115 Take Profit 1: 0.7030 Take Profit 2: 0.7000 Take Profit 3: 0.6980 Below 0.7100, sellers still hold the short-term advantage.
Short
by Skyler_Fx
Bearish on AUD/USDAUDUSD Short Setup – Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep + MSS + Premium Supply Entry Market Narrative My higher-timeframe bias remained bearish as AUDUSD continued to print lower highs and lower lows, indicating institutional selling pressure was still present. With the bearish order flow intact, my objective was to identify areas where price could engineer liquidity before continuing lower. Step 1: Identify Buy-Side Liquidity Price rallied into a clearly visible pool of buy-side liquidity resting above recent swing highs. Rather than chasing the move higher, I anticipated that the market would seek liquidity above these highs to facilitate larger sell orders. As expected, price traded above the liquidity pool and swept the highs. Step 2: Wait for Market Structure Shift A liquidity sweep alone is not sufficient for entry. After the sweep, I waited for confirmation in the form of a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS). The MSS confirmed that buyers were losing control and that institutional order flow was beginning to transition back to the downside. This was the first indication that the liquidity grab had likely completed. Step 3: Identify the Premium Supply Zone Following the MSS, price retraced back into the origin of the bearish displacement. This area contained: Fresh supply Institutional order flow Premium pricing relative to the current range The liquidity sweep region The confluence of these factors created a high-probability shorting opportunity. Entry Logic Entry: Retest of the supply zone after MSS Stop Loss: Above the liquidity sweep high Above the supply zone Take Profit: Major sell-side liquidity resting below Higher-timeframe demand zone Confluences ✅ Higher-timeframe bearish bias ✅ Buy-side liquidity sweep ✅ Bearish MSS confirmation ✅ Premium pricing ✅ Supply zone retest ✅ Strong risk-to-reward profile Risk Management The trade offers approximately 1:8 Risk-to-Reward, meaning the setup does not require a high win rate to remain profitable over a large sample size. The focus is not on predicting every move but on consistently executing high-quality asymmetric opportunities. Key Lesson Liquidity sweeps often create emotional buying at the highs. Instead of following the breakout, I waited for evidence that the move was engineered for liquidity collection. Once the sweep was followed by a bearish MSS and a retracement into premium supply, the market provided a structured and objective short opportunity. "Trade where liquidity is taken, not where retail traders are trapped.
Short
by lifeisbeautifultrade
AUD/USD Held Back by RBA's Passive RallyOANDA:AUDUSD AUD/USD pared all of its daily gains from earlier in the week and sluggishly hovered around 0.7050 throughout Tuesday's Asian session. Sentiment toward the Australian dollar suffered a double blow due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) loss of domestic hawkish bias and the release of a very disappointing Chinese economic data package. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ RBA Holds 4.35%: A Dry Oasis Without Hawkish Fuel The RBA's monetary policy meeting on Tuesday failed to surprise the market: - Official Cash Rate (OCR) Remains at 4.35%: As widely expected, the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, the lack of rhetoric or commitment to further tightening in the policy statement disappointed investors. - External Sensitivity: The RBA's passive stance has deprived the Aussie of its internal monetary defense, making it a highly vulnerable and sensitive antipodean currency to deteriorating external economic data. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ AUD/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4) Technically, AUD/USD failed to maintain its breakout momentum above the short-term trendline, confirming the return of a daily downside bias: - Fading Rally Pattern: The sharp rejection from the 0.7090 area demonstrates that every attempt at recovery in the Aussie pair was immediately exploited by institutions to open new short positions, capitalizing on the weakening momentum of Chinese Retail Sellers. - Least Resistance Line: Downward (Downside Dominance). As long as AUD/USD trades below the psychological level of 0.7100, the short-term bias remains tilted to the downside.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
AUDUSD H1 — Clean rejection from trendline resistance.Price is showing weakness after tapping the ascending trendline, and sellers are stepping in with momentum. 📍 Entry: 0.7134 🎯 Target: 0.7108 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.7146 Confluence: • Trendline rejection • Lower high formation • Bearish momentum candles • Liquidity resting near support zone If sellers maintain control below the trendline, price can continue sliding toward the demand area. Waiting for confirmation and proper risk management is key.
Short
by Scalper_San
AUDUSD CONTINUATION SETUPIn AUDUSD, price is currently trading in a continuation setup around the 10–20 EMA zone. Price remains above the 50 EMA, and at the same time, it is also holding above the 10–20 EMA, which keeps the overall structure bullish. However, the main concern right now is that the 10–20 EMA is still tightly compressed and not showing strong bullish separation yet, which means momentum confirmation is still somewhat lacking. Despite that, the latest daily candle managed to close strongly above the EMA zone, which is an encouraging sign for buyers. Another important factor is that the previous weekly candle closed bullish, and at the same time, we are entering a new monthly candle, which can often bring continuation momentum if higher timeframe strength remains intact. For now, I’m expecting possible bullish continuation, but I want to see strong bullish price action from this zone along with a proper flip and confirmation before considering any long positions. Until then, waiting for confirmation and observing how AUDUSD unfolds.
Long
by Coffee_addict_trader