DX.F trade ideas
DXY heading for 90.50As expected, DXY continued to gain strength and move south on the chart. DXY stands at the moment at 89.70 area and is heading for 90.50 move. DXY strength may be temporary, as a retracement of the longer term downtrend, and if DXY reaches levels of 90.50 but does not manage to break above this structure, we may expect a stronger move downwards.
DXY will turn into bullish if head and shoulder bottom formedYou can see two head&shoulder in the chart. For the frist pattern, it's the beginning bearlish trend of DXY.
Now, the price is out of the decline channnel,it means that the decline trend has already change ! And the MACD is above the 0 zone.
If the head&shoulder bottom is formed ( it has not been formed yet!), the trend of USD will competely change! 94.25 will be the key point!
DXY how beautifully reached symmetrical traingle targetJust to put in a prospective, following traditional technical analysis can lead to good trades and necessarily no need to trade every other day. It is question to be asked if fundamental make the technical or fundamental can be predicted by the technical. Nevertheless it is always to good to have both technical and fundamental knowledge in your trading arsenal.
Dollar Index WDollar Index has been witnessing a freefall and the fall beyond critical supports around 94.30 mentioned in the last issue lead the DX lower. Currently, the U.S. currency's performance against the euro and five other currencies, hit its lowest level since May 3, 2016. The sharp weakness not witnessed since the period of January to July 1986 is driven by disappointing economic data, political uncertainty and positive developments abroad have sent the U.S. dollar lower despite two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The recent selling seems to be overdone and hence a stronger U.S. dollar rebound from current levels are expected by year-end 2017.
Dollar Index (DXY) MonthlyThe Dollar however continues to remain under pressure as the Trump’s administration reveals the involvement of Russia in last years election campaign. The impact of such admission on the Dollar remains yet to be seen while Federal Reserve continues to maintain a hawkish stance. Central banks around the globe seem to be either removing their accommodation or talking about removing their accommodation, except for the BOJ. The current situation seems pushing the Dollar into a great deal of uncertainty. Will it breach important supports of 94.30, only time will tell.
DXY TNX spreadThe USD would ususally move according to the USD strength i.e. DXY.
Lately, it hasn't been the case.
There could be multiple theories around it..from fundamental to political to technical.
I am wondering what gives!
One plausible explanation is may be the Fed policy has gone beyond what's needed. But then again, it's pretty much set in stone now!
Is it a coincidence that this is happening around G20 and North Korea missile launch?
Or may be Fed has something to do with it? But then again..Fed is never really out of the news. They are taking backseat most in last 10 years though. And it's good.
So what gives? Is it Trump? He alienated Yellen and now she has made sure that the policy won't change even if she is removed.
That fiscal stimulus better be coming soon.
DXY: LONGDXY: LONG
E: 99.56
SL: 99.46
TP1: 99.8
TP2: 100.01
market broke prior resistance level (change of polarity).
market made hit major demand level where price have difficulty making new lows.
price volume is increasing as it goes up to my take profit levels.
0.618 retracement is used for target 2 which is at the break of the previous resistance level (change of polarity) and 0.382 is used for target 1.
note: I am not an expert as yet, this is only my opinion.