Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason. The price of Bitcoin has declined following the release of labor market data (JOLTS) and the FOMC meeting minutes, where Fed officials expressed concerns about the impact of Donald Trump's policies on the U.S. economy. BTC's price has once again fallen below the 200 EMA line and is currently retesting the support block at 90,000–91,000, which it has repeatedly bounced off over the past month. If Bitcoin breaks below this level under selling pressure, we anticipate a continued correction into the 4H Imbalance zone, located between the 0.5 and 0.61 Fibonacci levels. In this area, reversal patterns can be sought for building short-term long positions in the 87,000–82,000 range. The likelihood of further decline is indicated by the crossing of the EMA 200 and EMA 50 moving average lines. At the same time, the RSI indicator is already near its lower limits, offering hope for a quick end to the correction if the support levels of 87,000 and 80,000 hold against the sellers' pressure.
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it needs to break above the dynamic resistance of the 200 EMA and hold above the psychological level of 100,000. In that case, we would expect further growth with a retest of the resistance block at 108,000–110,000 and a potential update of the all-time high.
📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start?
On the daily logarithmic chart, the RSI indicator has crossed below the midline, suggesting a continued correction is likely. During Bitcoin’s rapid growth in November 2024, an Imbalance 1D zone formed in the 77,000–85,000 range, characterized by significant gaps at horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled through consolidations.
After the correction is complete, the next target for Bitcoin's price growth could be the global trendline, drawn based on the two peaks of the previous growth cycle. This line may be tested around the 120,000 level, as confirmed by the analysis of large order blocks in exchange order books.
Meanwhile, the crypto market is gearing up for the much-anticipated altseason—a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in returns. Altseason typically follows Bitcoin's new all-time high and its consolidation within that range, as investors reinvest profits into other coins to maximize gains. However, the upcoming altseason will likely differ from previous ones due to the influx of institutional funds via Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and the tightening regulation of crypto assets.
Historically, in 2017 and 2021, the start of altseason coincided with a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance. A drop in Bitcoin's share of total market capitalization below 50% could signal the beginning of altseason. Additionally, altseason often aligns with moments when Bitcoin reaches the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart.
💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone - 69.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $3.19 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has risen to 57.94.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 80,000 - 91,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 105,000 - 120,000
Levels for long positions:
90,000 - psychological support level
87,000 - 88,000 - large support block
80,000 - large support block
Levels for short positions:
105,000 - largest resistance block
110,000 - largest resistance block
120,000 - ascending trend line of resistance
📊 Fundamental analysis
At the December meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) discussed various topics, ranging from inflation risks to the anticipated slowdown in rate cuts. Fed officials expressed concerns that Trump’s proposed trade and immigration policies could intensify inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, fresh U.S. labor market data may push the Fed to abandon further rate reductions. The cryptocurrency market reacted sharply, with significant price declines.
At the same time, financial analysts predict that the current bull market could become the longest in the history of the cryptocurrency industry. Investor optimism regarding a continued crypto rally surged after Bitcoin reclaimed levels above $100,000, following news that the largest BTC investor among public companies, MicroStrategy, resumed its coin purchases. The company acquired 1,070 Bitcoins for $101 million, bringing its total holdings to 447,470 BTC.
Experts believe the cryptocurrency market’s peak will occur in mid-2025, followed by a steep decline. Net liquidity of $57 billion, expected to flow into the market in the first quarter, may temporarily support the bull market. However, economic pressures are likely to trigger a correction. These projections are based on an analysis of market liquidity and the impact of political events, as U.S. dollar liquidity remains a critical factor in crypto market dynamics. Changes in Fed policy and U.S. Treasury operations could lead to significant volatility.
🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:
➤ 01/15, 16:30 - U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ 01/16, 16:30 - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims.
➤ 01/29, 22:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.
➤ 03/19, 22:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.
📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:
In December 2024, the price of Bitcoin updated its historical maximum, then a correction began. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎
Total price movement by all signals: + 45.09%
Maximum price movement: + 11.17%
Average price movement: + 5.01%
In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas
BTC#2 : Summary of things to watch out for in the current uptren🔥 The previous plan helped you make a profit. Leave a comment and share the joy. 🔥
Today I will continue to bring everyone a perspective on BTC and the next trading plan.
1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:**
📊 🔴US CPI rose slightly more than expected in December as energy costs rose, suggesting inflation is still rising
▫️ In addition, a recovery in Bitcoin was supported by the release of December PPI on Tuesday, which showed weaker-than-expected inflation data.
2️⃣ **Technical analysis:**
🔹 **D Frame**: Yesterday's candle close shows strong market confidence in BTC rising. However, the price has reacted when touching the trendline. This is the area we need to pay attention to
🔹 **H4 frame**: The bearish price structure was broken when the price crossed 968xx and went straight to the trendline, which caused the bullish momentum to slow down somewhat. It is likely that we will need a slight correction to gain momentum to break the resistance area above
🔹 **H1 frame**: Looking at the price structure, you can see more clearly. The bullish wave has not shown any signs of ending, but the important resistance area requires us to be more patient if we want to find profits.
3️⃣ **Trading plan:**
✅ If you want to have a BUY position at the moment, my advice is that we can patiently wait for the price to test the support area of 958xx as I marked on the chart. Don't be hasty, when the R:R ratio of the important resistance area is always low. The bullish price structure also needs confirmation by a higher bottom than the previous bottom. FOMO at this time is not a wise choice
⛔ The resistance zone will always make you want to stop the ship. However, wait for the bearish price structure in the small time frame M5. M15 to make sure your judgment is correct. If you have a good position, you should not expect high profits when the bearish price structure is temporarily broken, closing part of the profit when the price touches support and leaving SL positive will be a wise choice.
💪 **Wish you successful trading!** 🚀
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Zones to Watch on the 4-Hour ChartWhat is Happening in the Chart?
1. Resistance and Supply Zone (Order Block): Bitcoin is approaching a significant bearish order block (red zone) near the $100,000 mark. This area represents resistance where sellers may take control, pushing the price downward.
2. Potential Retracement: Before continuing its upward trend, Bitcoin may retrace to fill the fair value gap (FVG) and test the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. These zones are historically strong areas for buyers to re-enter the market.
3. Support and Demand Zone: The bullish order block (green zone) near $92,000 aligns with the retracement zone. This is where Bitcoin might find strong support before resuming its upward trajectory.
Outlook for BTC/USDT
The chart predicts a potential pullback to $92,000-$95,000, followed by a bullish rally aiming to break through resistance at $100,000. If Bitcoin clears the bearish OB, the price could target new highs, potentially surpassing $105,000.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $100,000 (Bearish OB)
Support: $92,000-$95,000 (Bullish OB and Fibonacci zone)
---
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and trading involves significant risks. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
BTCUSDT (Bitcoin) will move towards 100K$Scenario 1: Buy/Long Position
✅ Conditions for Entry:
BTC needs to hold the Demand H4 zone (91,000 - 92,500 USDT).
Wait for a pullback to the Demand zone with confirmation signals (e.g., Pin Bar, Bullish Engulfing, or a strong Breakout).
📌 Buy Order Details:
Item Value
Entry Point 92,000 - 93,000 USDT
Stop Loss (SL) 89,000 USDT
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 97,500 USDT
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 100,000 USDT
Take Profit 3 (TP3) 102,000 USDT
📝 Explanation:
Entry: Wait for the price to pull back to the Demand H4 zone before entering a long position.
Stop Loss: Place the Stop Loss below the Demand H4 zone to protect your capital if the price breaks the support.
Take Profit: Take partial profits at key resistance levels (97,500 - 102,000 USDT).
📈 Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R):
For an Entry at 92,500 USDT and Stop Loss at 89,000 USDT:
TP1 (97,500) = 1:1.4 R:R
TP2 (100,000) = 1:2 R:R
TP3 (102,000) = 1:2.7 R:R
🧩 Scenario 2: Sell/Short Position
✅ Conditions for Entry:
BTC must face strong resistance at the Supply Zone (98,000 - 100,000 USDT).
Look for rejection signals (e.g., Doji, Shooting Star, or Bearish Engulfing) in this zone.
The price should fail to break above the descending trendline.
📌 Sell Order Details:
Item Value
Entry Point 98,000 - 99,000 USDT
Stop Loss (SL) 101,000 USDT
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 95,000 USDT
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 93,000 USDT
Take Profit 3 (TP3) 91,000 USDT
📝 Explanation:
Entry: Wait for the price to hit the Supply Zone and show rejection signs before entering a short position.
Stop Loss: Place the Stop Loss above the Supply Zone to protect your capital if the price breaks the resistance.
Take Profit: Take partial profits at key support levels (95,000 - 91,000 USDT).
📉 Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R):
For an Entry at 98,500 USDT and Stop Loss at 101,000 USDT:
TP1 (95,000) = 1:1.4 R:R
TP2 (93,000) = 1:2.2 R:R
TP3 (91,000) = 1:3.0 R:R
Good luck!
Bearish Reversal: Supply Zone to Profit Zone
Uptrend and Resistance Trendline : Correct Analysis: The chart shows a clear uptrend marked by higher highs and higher lows. The price eventually breaks this uptrend with a significant downward move, indicating a possible Break of Structure (BOS) and trend reversal.
Break of Structure (BOS) : Correct Analysis: The BOS is valid as the price broke below a significant swing low within the uptrend, showing that bearish momentum has overpowered the bulls.
Change of Character (CoCh) : CoCh is visible in two locations, where the price shifts from making higher highs and higher lows to creating lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish reversal. This confirms the weakening of the bullish structure.
Supply Zone
The supply zone is well-marked, encompassing:
Order Block : A bearish candle before the strong down move, representing institutional sell orders.
Price Imbalance (FVG) : A visible gap in price action, where sellers were dominant and buyers failed to fill the gap completely. The price often retraces to these levels before continuing its direction.
The price has rejected this zone, suggesting it’s acting as resistance.
Overbought RSI : The RSI entered overbought territory during the prior rally, followed by divergence and a downward move. This supports the idea that the bulls are losing momentum.
Targets : The highlighted demand zone around 76,000 USDT aligns with a strong historical support level. If bearish momentum persists, this zone is a logical target. Below it, the next demand zone around 68,000 USDT is valid as a long-term target.
Potential Short Setup : Given the BOS, CoCh, supply zone rejection, and overbought RSI, a bearish bias is justified. A short trade targeting the demand zones you’ve marked aligns well with the analysis.
Refinement:
Volume Confirmation: Look at the volume profile to ensure that the BOS and CoCh are supported by high bearish volume. This strengthens the bearish thesis.
Bearish Candlestick Patterns: Monitor for further bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or pin bar) in the supply zone to increase trade confidence.
Lower Timeframe Analysis: If unsure about entry, drop to a lower timeframe (e.g., 1H or 15M) to confirm rejection or bearish structure.
Bitcoin will go downStrategy 1: Short from Supply H4 Zone (With 2 Entries)
Short Setup:
Entry 1: 96,500 USDT (First Supply H4 zone)
Entry 2: 99,200 USDT (Second Supply zone near the psychological level of 100k)
Stop Loss (SL): 100,500 USDT (Placed above the strong Supply zone and psychological level)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 93,000 USDT (Nearest support level)
TP2: 91,200 USDT (Close to the Demand Zone)
TP3: 89,800 USDT (Main Demand Zone)
Risk Management:
Split the position into two parts, each with 50% risk.
Entry 1 at 96,500 USDT
Entry 2 at 99,200 USDT
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~1:3 or better, depending on your take profit targets.
🟢 Strategy 2: Long from Demand Zone (Adjusted Stop Loss)
Long Setup:
Entry: 89,800 - 91,000 USDT (Strong Demand Zone)
Stop Loss (SL): 90,200 USDT
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 93,000 USDT
TP2: 96,500 USDT (Supply H4 Zone)
TP3: 98,000 USDT
Please leave a comment to let me know you've been following. Good luck.
BTC - At Support once againAfter touching earlier predicted first target of 102 price has fallen more than expected and holding at previous proven support levels. In my view BTC is once again at support and some fresh buying or accumulation is visible. For whatever reason price could dance for big players to buy more at support levels. Its popular idea to buy back whatever was partially booked at 102 levels. we cannot avoid this and we might see partial selling above 102K again and buying below 97K. Higher the price move up most will keep booking profits and more the price move low more buying is the trend now. Jan is the month we are waiting for banana spike to take price to 125 or above. Hope it happens once new president takes charge in office. As days near to this even I expect more bullish move in BTC. I do not see WW3 in Jan 2025.
SHORT BTCPattern Observed: Head and Shoulders
Left Shoulder: Formed with lower highs.
Head: The peak point of the pattern.
Right Shoulder: Slightly lower high, confirming the pattern.
Neckline: A horizontal support line at approximately 96,000 USD.
RSI Divergence
RSI shows a downward trend while price action forms higher highs during the head. This bearish divergence indicates potential weakness and supports the Head and Shoulders reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) goes to 102k. Scenario 1: Long (Buy) Setup
The idea is to wait for a pullback to the FVG H4 zone or Trendline H1 for a buying opportunity.
Entry Point (Long):
🔹 Entry 1: Around FVG H4 ($96,500 - $97,500).
🔹 Entry 2: If the price breaks below the FVG, consider entering around the Demand Zone ($92,500 - $93,000).
Stop Loss (SL):
🛑 Set your Stop Loss at $95,700
Take Profit (TP):
🎯 TP1: Around $100,500 - $101,000 (Supply H1).
🎯 TP2: Around $102,000 - $105,000 (Supply Zone).
📉 Scenario 2: Short (Sell) Setup
If the price reaches the Supply Zone, it offers a potential shorting opportunity to catch a reversal.
Entry Point (Short):
🔹 Supply Zone 1: $101,000 - $102,000.
🔹 Supply Zone 2: $103,000 - $105,000 (a stronger resistance level).
Stop Loss (SL):
🛑 Set your Stop Loss above $106,000.
Take Profit (TP):
🎯 TP1: Around $98,000.
🎯 TP2: Around $95,000.
🎯 TP3: Around $92,000 (Demand Zone).
update btcusdt hello.
This post is basically a personal reminder but, I am glad if you read it.
I keep the same position on btc. Who's renter at 91k good idea, you won't lose that much on the next drawdown. I won't suggest an exit and rentrance.
I am still waiting for 87-85K range (86K snaper).
The 0.618 weekly bearish ends around 101-102k which coincides with the 0.27 buy on several tf.
The 0.27 of this sell on weekly basis ends where the reintracement of the main bullish trends is supose to arrives, this so-oftern recalled, 86k.
I expect a bullishn rally from 86K but there are still ineffenciy left behind. For the nowadays political and governamental situation, i think a price of 78-71K is too low, unless BTC burning.
Bitcoin 2H SMC Chart Analysis: Bearish Outlook Bitcoin 2H Chart Analysis: Bearish Outlook
Currently, Bitcoin is forming a Lower Low (LL) and Lower High (LH) pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend in the short-term. Key support levels to watch are around $88,000 and $85,000.
📉 Next Targets: $88,000 → $85,000
🚫 Critical Level: A 2H close above $101,000 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Note: If Bitcoin holds below $100,000, expect a possible decline to $85,000.
Remember, always set your stop losses to protect your funds in case the trend shifts.