DXY DXY: slight recovery overnight after falling some more; just around the pivot at 99.00; this is a tricky phase for the USD; Data mixed is the theme; which is actually ok for an economy as large as the US; but when seen in context of the Fed next week, it assumes significance; support at 99.00 & 98.60; resistance at 99.20; sell on rise.
DXY DXY: remember a few days ago, I kept harping on how important the level of 100.25 was; once that proved impregnable, the index is already down 1%; no longer a buy on dips- first signs of a bearish structure; wait for confirmation; the current level around 98.80-99.00 is key: this is where we have the weekly 21 WMA; below this, support at 98.17; quite deep; resistances at 99.00 & 99.20
DXY DXY: the move above the 50 WMA did not sustain again highlighting the weak momentum that the buy on dips structure has; supports at 99.20 & 99.00 now; resistance at the 50 WMA- around 99.45 and then 99.64; services PMI will be keenly watched after a set of disappointing economic data thus far; the US 10y bond yields also slipped a bit after threatening to look alive.
DXY DXY: seemed to make a recovery, but that was not to be; finding support at the 50 WMA now; below this support is at 99.20; resistance at 99.64 & the trend line; structure remains a buy on dips, but with low momentum; after 2 days of US holidays and thin liquidity, we have the key PMI nos today.
DXY DXY: found support at the 50 WMA; but no meaningful move up; liquidity is thin as pretty much all but the really crazy American traders & Algos are out of action; structure remains a buy on dips; resistance at 99.64; and then the 21 WMA- around 99.80; support at the 50 WMA at around 99.40 & then at 99.20
DXY DXY: the dollar slips quite a bit even more so in early Asian trading; the trend line broke and the next support is at the 50 WMA at 99.40 & below that at 99.20; the structure remains a buy on dips, but momentum not supportive. Incidentally this happens when the index finally turned a buy on dips on weekly charts; resistance now at the trend line & before that at 99.64
DXY DXY: Fell on account of multiple reasons; but the key takeaway is this; 100.25 held like a wall; this is why I kept harping about that level; just above the trend line for now; below this the support is at 98.64 & below that at 99.20; pretty heavy data today ahead of a very long weekend starting tomorrow; if the trend line holds, we are back to testing 100.25; buy on dips.
DXY DXY: can’t stop talking about 100.25; it’s held despite multiple attempts and Fed commentary is not helping the cause; the 10y US yield has moved down nearly 10 bps in 2 sessions; so the narrative remains unchanged- until 100.25 breaks convincingly, the USD will remain below 100 & quiet; below 100.25, support at 99.64; buy only on dips
DXY DXY: Weekly chart; 100.25 remains a strong resistance; the index was a buy on dips on a daily timeframe, now we have the first signs of it becoming a Buy on a weekly timeframe too; buy only IF 100.25 breaks; if it does then the targets are 100.57 & 100.99; support If 100.25 holds are at 99.64-99.20; not much by way of data; but a lot of data ahead this week; Buy on dips.
DXY DXY: 100.25 holds again; multiple attempts to break above this has failed. The struggle is not so obvious on the daily candle. So this is the thing- if 100.25 does not break, then we are back to the small range the index has been trading in these past few months. Support at 99.64; above 100.25, first target is 100.57; buy on dips
DXY DXY: slight recovery overnight after falling some more; just around the pivot at 99.00; this is a tricky phase for the USD; Data mixed is the theme; which is actually ok for an economy as large as the US; but when seen in context of the Fed next week, it assumes significance; support at 99.00 & 98.60; resistance at 99.20; sell on rise.