Classic Case of Priced In Optimism & Intraday Liquidity TrapThe market’s behaviour on the Bihar election result day followed a pattern that repeats itself almost every time political outcomes are broadly expected. By the time counting began in the morning, the market had already made its real move. The rally from the 25,350 zone to the 26,000 area in the previous sessions had priced in the possibility of political continuity. Exit polls and early sentiment didn’t leave much room for a fresh surprise, and because of that, the result day itself turned out to be a range-bound session instead of a trend day.
The 5-minute chart shows exactly how the trap formed. The index opened firm, pushed towards 26,000, and immediately met selling pressure. Traders who entered on the assumption that a clear political mandate would trigger a one-way rally were trapped right at the open. Through the middle of the session, the market drifted back into a narrow band, forming lower highs and repeatedly slipping toward the 25,750 support. This is typical behaviour when a major event gets fully discounted before the actual announcement. Without fresh triggers, the market simply rotated around intraday liquidity.
Global cues didn’t help either. Asian markets were soft, risk sentiment was weak, and domestic buying lacked strength. Even with a favourable political outcome, the backdrop wasn’t strong enough to push the index beyond the 26,000 supply zone. This created a clean intraday squeeze: optimism at the open, hesitation through the day, and then a sharp reversal in the last half-hour.
The late spike—more than 100 points in a single 5-minute candle around 3 PM—was largely mechanical. It had the signature of short-covering, expiry-related adjustment, and institutional book-closing rather than genuine trend buying. Moves like this usually appear when intraday shorts square off and larger players rebalance their positions into the close.
The higher timeframe tells the same story. On the 1-hour chart, the index had already hit resistance earlier, and each attempt near 26,000 was met with supply. The trend remains intact on the broader scale, but momentum clearly slowed down once the market realised that the result did not introduce any new variable—it simply confirmed what was already anticipated.
Overall, this session was a textbook example of how markets behave when the news is entirely expected. The initial reaction pulls in emotional traders, the mid-day choppiness shakes out both sides, and the final burst is more about positioning than sentiment. Until Nifty closes decisively above 26,050 on strong breadth, the index is likely to stay in a sideways-to-cautious zone with support near 25,750.
In short, the market didn’t rally because there was nothing new to rally about. The optimism was already embedded in the previous move, and the result day turned into a classic liquidity trap rather than a directional breakout.
