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Micro Silver Futures (Aug 2021)Micro Silver Futures (Aug 2021)Micro Silver Futures (Aug 2021)

Micro Silver Futures (Aug 2021)

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Silver mcx upmove will continue buy on dip new ATH will comeParameter Data Data Asset Name Silver (SILVER1!) MCX Mar 2026 Futures Current Trade 🟨 WAIT & WATCH / Buy on Dips (Wait for a clear bounce near S1) Price Movement 🟨 Consolidation/Slightly Bearish (-0.29% approx. from previous close) SMC Structure 🟩 Strong Bullish Order Flow / High-level consolidation phase. Trap/Liquidity Zones Bullish Trap Zone: Above ₹1,84,400 (Falsi breakout possibility). Liquidity Target: ₹1,80,600 - ₹1,80,000 (Strong demand zone). Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,80,647 (Immediate Pivot/Demand) 🟩 S2: ₹1,78,942 (Key Technical Support) 🟩 S3: ₹1,76,894 (Major Structural Support/20 DEMA) Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹1,84,400 (Immediate Resistance/Supply) 🟥 R2: ₹1,86,448 (Strong Supply Zone) 🟥 R3: ₹1,88,153 (Major High/Target) Risk Reward 1 : 1.5 Probability 🟨 58% Upside Continuation (Trend is strong, but correction due) Confidence 🟨 22/30 (High structural conviction, low short-term momentum conviction) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (Minimal relevance for commodity futures) DEMA Levels 🟩 Price well above 20/50 DEMA (Strong long-term bullish trend) ADX/RSI/DMI 🟨 RSI (14) \approx 70-73 range (Overbought/High Momentum) / ADX \approx 32 (Strong Trend) Market Depth 🟩 Slightly Bullish (Low volume selling, quick absorption expected at supports) Volatility (IV/RV) 🟥 High/Rising Volatility (Sharp, two-sided moves expected) Source Ledger MCX, COMEX, Industrial Demand Data, COT Positioning OI (Open Interest) 🟨 Flat/Minor Contraction (Short-covering ke baad, fresh long buildup ka intezaar hai) PCR (Put-Call Ratio) 🟩 Favorable/Bullish (Options data lower support levels par strong buying dikha raha hai) VWAP 🟩 Price trading above daily VWAP (Intraday bias positive) Turnover 🟨 Moderate (Highs par volume kam hai) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A (Strong trending market) IV/RV 🟨 IV Skew: Neutral (Options market mein koi extreme panic nahi) Options Skew 🟨 Neutral-to-Positive (Call-side option demand hai) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Options Greek Data) Block Trades 🟩 Institutional Buys Detected (Lower levels par buying interest high) COT Positioning 🟩 Net Long (Speculators heavily net long) Cross-Asset Correlation 🟩 Strong Positive with XAUUSD / 🟥 Strong Inverse with DXY ETF Rotation 🟩 Strong Inflows (Global Silver ETF inflows strong hain) Sentiment Index 🟩 Greed (Bullish sentiment market mein haavi hai) OFI (Order Flow Index) 🟩 Positive (Buy-side flow active hai, lekin profit booking bhi) Delta 🟩 Call Delta Active (Upside momentum ka indication) VWAP Bands 🟨 Price VWAP bands ke upper side par trade kar raha hai Rotation Metrics 🟩 Commodity/Metals leading the rotation Market Phase 🟩 Mark-Up/Consolidation (Bullish phase mein temporary correction)
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver buy given continuesly from 151500 now sell for 11 dec falParameter Data Data Asset Name Silver Futures (MCX) (Mar 2026 Contract) Price Movement 🟩 Explosive Positive Momentum (LTP \sim ₹1,88,064/kg / +3.48\% change) Current Trade 🟩 STRONG BUY / PARABOLIC (Trading near All-Time Highs) SMC Structure 🟩 Explosive/Parabolic Move (Historic breakout above ₹1,90,000) Trap/Liquidity Zones Liquidity Target: Above ₹1,92,400 / Potential Trap: Aggressive shorting below ₹1,86,600 (Major Support Failure) Probability 🟩 Very High (85%) for testing ₹1,92,400 - ₹1,95,000. Risk Reward (R:R) 1 : 1.5 Confidence 🟩 High (Strong technical and fundamental support) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (Requires latest options data) DEMA Levels 🟩 Extreme Bullish (Price is significantly above all major DEMAs) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,86,600 (Immediate Pivot/Key Support), S2: ₹1,85,000 (Psychological Support), S3: ₹1,83,000 (Crucial Short-Term Base) Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹1,90,000 (Psychological/Recent High), R2: ₹1,92,400 (Next Target Zone), R3: ₹1,95,000 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14): \sim 75+ (Overbought/Extreme Strength) / ADX (14): \sim 45+ (Extreme Trend Strength) Market Depth 🟨 N/A (Requires live data feed) Volatility 🟩 Extremely High (ATR confirms a massive expansion phase) Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (MCX Futures Data, Dec 10, 2025 Close) OI 🟩 High (Long positions are aggressively being built) PCR 🟥 Extremely Bullish/Overbought (\sim 2.21 - Dec 23 Expiry) - Indicates high Put writing, suggesting traders are heavily positioned for no drop. VWAP 🟩 Strong Bullish (Price trading significantly above VWAP) Turnover 🟩 Exceptional (Volume confirms the breakout's validity) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A (Strong momentum wave) IV/RV 🟩 Implied Volatility (IV): Extremely High / Realized Volatility (RV): Record High Options Skew 🟩 Bullish Bias (Call premiums are high) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated options data feed) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated institutional data feed) COT Positioning 🟩 Strong Bullish (Global COT supports long-term structural demand) Cross-Asset Correlation 🟩 Strong Positive (Inverse correlation with weakening USD Index) ETF Rotation 🟩 Strong Bullish (Massive ETF inflows) Sentiment Index 🟩 Euphoria/Greed (Driven by the record breakout) OFI 🟩 Strong Positive (Institutional Order Flow is positive) Delta 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated options data feed) VWAP Bands 🟩 Extreme Bullish (Price trading outside the upper band) Rotation Metrics 🟩 Strong Momentum (Highest tier of rotational strength) Market Phase 🟩 Expansion/Parabolic Uptrend
MCX:SILVER1!Short
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver mcx buy given from last 2 week huge huge profit on upsideParameter Data Asset Name Silver MCX Futures (Mar 2026): ₹1,83,100/kg (LTP: Dec 5, 2025 Close) Price Movement Strong momentum targeting and . Downside possible if is broken, targeting and . Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active / T1: ₹1,85,200, T2: ₹1,90,000, T3: ₹1,93,000 / SL: ₹1,79,900 Risk Reward (R:R) 🟩 1 : 1.5 Confidence 🟩 29/30 (96.67%) (Near-maximum conviction; strong fundamental and technical alignment.) Probability 🟩 95% (Extremely high probability of continuation above the ₹1,80,000 floor.) Market Phase 🟩 Expansion/Impulse Wave (Price is actively trending upward with high volume and conviction.) DEMA Levels 🟩 Extreme Bullish (Price is trading significantly above all short and medium-term DEMA levels.) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,80,000 (Major Psychological Support/Pivot), 🟩 S2: ₹1,78,500 (Consolidation Low), 🟩 S3: ₹1,75,500 (Previous Resistance turned Support). Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹1,85,200 (Recent All-Time High/Intraday Pivot), 🟥 R2: ₹1,90,000 (Next Major Psychological Barrier), 🟥 R3: ₹1,93,000 (Fibonacci Extension Target). SMC Structure 🟩 Aggressive Bullish Order Flow. Price is respecting demand zones and aggressively clearing previous high-resistance areas. Trap/Liquidity Zones 🟥 Liquidity Target: Above ₹1,90,000. Potential Trap: Fake breakdown below ₹1,80,000 (Stop-run zone). Max Pain 🟨 N/A (Minimal relevance for high-momentum commodity futures.) ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14): 78 (Extremely Overbought, confirming strong momentum), ADX (14): 45 (Very strong trend conviction). Market Depth 🟩 N/A (Weekend data; Depth N/A.) Volatility 🟩 High (ATR is sharply elevated, consistent with a parabolic rally.) Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (Weekend Rule): Official MCX March 2026 Closing Data from Friday, Dec 5, 2025. OI 🟩 Up / Price Up (Open Interest increased significantly, confirming fresh buying interest in the March contract.) PCR 🟨 N/A (Data not readily available for weekend.) VWAP 🟨 N/A (Weekend data; VWAP N/A.) Turnover 🟩 Very High (High trading volumes and turnover driven by the record rally.) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A (Strong impulse wave; no reversal patterns active.) IV/RV 🟩 High IV / Steep Positive Skew (Implied Volatility is high, reflecting anticipation of large future moves.) Options Skew 🟩 Extreme Positive Skew (OTM Calls are aggressively priced, showing high expectation of upside continuation.) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Neutral.) Block Trades 🟩 Major institutional block buying detected across the ₹1,79,000 to ₹1,82,000 consolidation range. COT Positioning 🟩 Record Net Long (Managed Money positioning is aggressively long, supporting the rally.) Cross-Asset Correlation 🟩 Strong Inverse with USD Index (DXY), and Strong Positive with Gold (GC). ETF Rotation 🟩 Massive Inflows (Silver ETFs are seeing robust capital accumulation, signaling institutional interest.) Sentiment Index 🟩 90 (Extreme Euphoria). Market sentiment is highly confident in continued price appreciation. OFI 🟩 Overwhelming Buy-side pressure (Order Flow confirms sustained, aggressive buying.) Delta 🟩 Cumulative Delta: Strongly Positive (Buyers have maintained full control into the close.) VWAP Bands 🟨 N/A (VWAP band data not available.) Rotation Metrics 🟩 Alpha Generating (Silver is significantly outperforming most other asset classes.) Data Triangulation 🟩 Verified (Confirmed by MCX closing data, global COMEX prices, and overwhelming macro/industrial factors.)
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver buy on dip given now book profit and sell for 11 dec fallParameter Data Data Asset Name Silver Futures (SI) (Mar 2026 Contract) Price Movement 🟩 Explosive Positive Momentum (LTP \sim \$61.925/oz / +1.78\% change) Current Trade 🟩 STRONG BUY / EXPANSION (Trading near 52-Week High) SMC Structure 🟩 Strong Bullish Order Flow (Decisive Breakout and Price Discovery) Trap/Liquidity Zones Liquidity Target: Above 62.00 / Potential Trap: Aggressive shorting below 61.00 (Breakout Failure) Probability 🟩 Very High (80%) for testing $62.50 - 63.00 in the near term. Risk Reward (R:R) 1 : 1.5 Confidence 🟩 High (Strong technicals supported by a weak Dollar) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (Minimal relevance for commodity futures) DEMA Levels 🟩 Strong Bullish (Price comfortably above all short-term DEMAs) Supports 🟩 S1: 61.130 (Previous 52W High/Pivot), S2: 60.570 (Previous Open), S3: 60.00 (Strong Psychological Demand) Resistances 🟥 R1: 62.00 (Psychological Barrier), R2: 62.50 (Next Target Zone), R3: 65.00 (Long-Term Technical Target) ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14): \sim 65-70 (Strong Momentum, approaching Overbought) / ADX (14): \sim 39.492 (Strong Trend Strength) Market Depth 🟨 N/A (Live Depth Data Unavailable) Volatility 🟩 High (ATR is elevated, confirming expansion) Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (COMEX Futures Data, Updated Dec 10, 2025) OI 🟨 Neutral (Volume is High, \sim 19,231 contracts, OI data not latest) PCR 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated options data feed) VWAP 🟩 Bullish (Price trading significantly above VWAP) Turnover 🟩 High (Active participation in the rally) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A (No clear high-probability pattern active) IV/RV 🟩 Implied Volatility (IV): High (41.85%) / Realized Volatility (RV): High Options Skew 🟨 Bullish Bias (Call premium total is much higher than Put premium) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated options data feed) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated institutional data feed) COT Positioning 🟩 Bullish Bias (Long positioning still dominates, supporting the move) Cross-Asset Correlation 🟩 Strong Positive (Inverse correlation with weakening USD Index) ETF Rotation 🟩 Bullish (Silver ETFs like SLV are showing strong performance: +48.39\% in 3M) Sentiment Index 🟩 Extremely Optimistic (Breakout fuels euphoria) OFI 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated institutional data feed) Delta 🟨 N/A (Requires dedicated options data feed) VWAP Bands 🟩 Bullish (Price trading outside the upper band, signalling strong move) Rotation Metrics 🟩 Strong Momentum (Impulsive move up) Market Phase 🟩 Uptrend / Expansion
COMEX:SI1!Short
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Market Swings and Interest Rates–Inflation Dynamics1. What Are Market Swings? Market swings refer to rapid or significant changes in asset prices—either upward (rallies) or downward (corrections). These swings reflect shifts in sentiment, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and expectations for future growth. Markets don’t move in straight lines; instead, they react continuously to new information, especially related to interest rates and inflation. Causes of Market Swings Economic Data Releases Inflation reports, GDP numbers, unemployment data, and consumer spending directly influence investor expectations. Central Bank Decisions Changes in interest rates or monetary policy guidance drive sharp reactions across asset classes. Geopolitical Events Wars, trade conflicts, sanctions, and political instability often trigger sudden risk-off movements. Corporate Earnings Better-than-expected profits cause upward swings, while weak results trigger sell-offs. Global Liquidity Conditions Tight liquidity increases volatility; easy liquidity fuels risk taking. Investor Psychology Fear, greed, herd behavior, and algorithmic trading amplify swings. Market swings become more intense when inflation becomes unpredictable or interest rates change sharply, because these two variables determine the cost of money and purchasing power. 2. Inflation: The Root Variable Inflation is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services rises. Moderate inflation indicates healthy demand in an economy. Excessive inflation, however, erodes purchasing power, compresses profit margins, and destabilizes savings and investment. Types of Inflation Demand-pull inflation: When aggregate demand outpaces supply. Cost-push inflation: When production costs (energy, wages, commodities) rise. Built-in inflation: Wage-price spirals where higher prices lead to demands for higher wages. Why Inflation Matters for Markets Inflation directly influences: Corporate profits: Higher raw material and wage costs reduce margins. Consumer behavior: Purchasing slowdowns hurt sectors like retail, automotive, and housing. Bond yields: Investors demand higher returns for inflation-eroded value. Currency value: High inflation weakens the currency relative to trading partners. Asset valuation: Higher inflation reduces present value of future cash flows. Inflation affects every sector differently. For instance, banks may benefit from higher interest margins, but real estate might slow down as borrowing becomes expensive. 3. Interest Rates: The Policy Lever Interest rates—primarily influenced by central banks—represent the cost of borrowing money. They are the most powerful tool used to control inflation, regulate liquidity, and stabilize financial systems. How Central Banks Use Interest Rates When inflation rises: Central banks increase interest rates to cool consumption and credit growth. When economic growth slows: They cut interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. Impact of Interest Rate Movements on Markets Equity Markets: Rising rates reduce corporate earnings and lower stock valuations. Lower rates boost profits, lending, investment, and stock market rallies. Bond Markets: Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. They rise when interest rates fall. Currency Markets: Higher interest rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the currency. Lower rates weaken the currency. Commodity Markets: Higher rates usually push commodities down due to stronger currency and weaker demand. Lower rates boost commodities like gold and crude oil. Interest rates are the bridge between inflation and market swings: when they rise rapidly, volatility spikes across global markets. 4. The Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation Interest rates and inflation are strongly interconnected: When Inflation Rises Central banks raise rates. Borrowing becomes expensive. Consumption slows. Investment reduces. Inflation gradually falls. Markets often correct due to tightening liquidity. When Inflation Falls Central banks cut rates. Loans become cheaper. Business investment grows. Consumer spending increases. Economic activity expands. Markets rally. This push-and-pull relationship keeps the economy balanced. But when inflation rises too quickly, central banks hike rates aggressively, causing sharp market swings. 5. How Inflation and Interest Rates Create Market Swings A. Sudden Inflation Surges When inflation rises faster than expected: Bond yields jump. Stock markets decline due to fear of rate hikes. Growth stocks suffer more because future earnings become less valuable. Commodity markets become volatile. Currency markets react abruptly. Example: A spike in oil prices can raise inflation suddenly, forcing central banks to tighten policy sooner than expected. B. Aggressive Rate Hikes Rapid rate hikes lead to: Liquidity shortages Corporate borrowing stress Sell-offs in equity markets Currency appreciation Bond yield inversion Most market crashes historically have been linked to sharp tightening cycles, where rising rates choke liquidity. C. Rate Cuts After High Inflation When inflation cools and rates fall: Markets rally strongly. Growth and tech stocks lead recoveries. Housing and auto sectors revive. Emerging markets attract foreign capital. Investors reposition from defensive assets (like bonds and gold) to riskier assets. 6. Sector-Wise Impact of Rate and Inflation Movements 1. Banking & Financials Benefit from moderate rate hikes (higher interest margins). Get hurt during extreme hikes (loan defaults rise). 2. Technology & Growth Stocks Highly sensitive to rising interest rates (high future earnings valuation). 3. Real Estate & Infrastructure Dependent on borrowing; rate hikes reduce demand sharply. 4. FMCG & Consumer Goods Damaged by high inflation (cost pressures) Recover with falling inflation 5. Metals, Oil & Commodities Move with inflation trends Benefit from low interest rates and strong demand cycles 7. Psychological and Liquidity Effects Markets are not driven only by numbers—sentiment and liquidity play major roles. Rising inflation creates uncertainty; investors fear erosion of purchasing power. Rate hikes reduce liquidity; lower liquidity increases volatility. Algorithms and institutional money amplify moves, making swings sharper. When inflation stabilizes and liquidity improves, investor confidence returns, reducing volatility. 8. Final Thoughts Market swings are natural outcomes of changing economic conditions. Inflation and interest rates act as the core variables that shape the direction, magnitude, and speed of these swings. Investors who understand this relationship can anticipate major turning points, position portfolios wisely, and avoid panic during volatile periods. In a world where economic conditions shift rapidly, understanding the dynamics between inflation, interest rates, and market behavior becomes essential for long-term investment success.
MCX:SILVER1!Education
by TechnicalExpress
MCX Silver Mar-26 — Short Setup IdentifiedMCX:SILVER1! Silver Futures (MCX Mar-26) has formed 3 strong bullish candles with equal body size, which often signals momentum exhaustion. Price is now consolidating near resistance, creating a short-biased educational setup as per my analysis. 🔽 Short Setup (Educational Technical Analysis) 📌 Short Entry Zone: ₹185000 – ₹182000 🔴 Stop Loss: ₹190000 🎯 Target Zones (As per my analysis) Target 1: ₹171000 – ₹165000 Target 2: ₹149000 Target-1 aligns with the current Exit Zone shown in chart. Target-2 is for advanced traders with trailing SL to Cost-to-Cost. 📊 Why This Setup? 3 equal-sized bullish candles = possible buyer exhaustion Price hitting resistance zone Fresh consolidation indicating distribution Strong mean-reversion probability ⚠️ SEBI Advisory Note I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. This analysis is only for educational learning, not buy/sell signals. #Silver #MCXSilver #SilverFutures #MCX #CommodityTrading #ShortSetup #PriceActionTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #HeikinAshi #SupplyDemand #TrendReversal #BearishSetup #TradingEducation #ChartAnalysis #MarketPsychology #RiskManagement #AdijhonAnalysis
MCX:SILVER1!Short
by Adijohn
1
Silver last week we booked 10300 points profit & Gold 3800 pointParameters Data Reason 🟩 Extreme Bullish Momentum due to: 1) Global Breakout above $56. 2) Physical Scarcity driving spot premiums. 3) Aggressive Safe-Haven Buying ahead of the Fed meeting. Asset Name Silver MCX (Dec Futures) ₹1,71,850 Price Movement Buy side: 🟩 R1: ₹1,73,500, 🟩 R2: ₹1,75,000, 🟩 R3: ₹1,78,000. If break 🟥 S1: ₹1,69,800 then downside possible towards 🟥 S2: ₹1,65,000, 🟥 S3: ₹1,61,800. Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active / T1: ₹1,73,500, T2: ₹1,75,000 / SL: ₹1,69,800 Risk Reward 🟩 1 : 1.5 Confidence 🟩 27/30 (Dominant signals Bullish/Positive हैं, confirming very high conviction for the BUY trade.) Probability 🟩 95% (Momentum is backed by fundamental deficits and macro tailwinds.) Max Pain 🟨 ₹1,68,000 (Options data suggests writers are trapped below this level, fueling a short-covering rally.) DEMA Levels 🟩 20/50/100/200/250 DEMA: Price is significantly above all major averages (50-DEMA approx ₹1,58,000), indicating a "Blue Sky" zone. Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,69,800 (Immediate Breakout Support), 🟩 S2: ₹1,65,000, 🟩 S3: ₹1,61,800. Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹1,73,500 (Spot High/Target), 🟥 R2: ₹1,75,000 (Psychological), 🟥 R3: ₹1,78,000 (Fibonacci Extension). ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14): 76.4 (Overbought but typically stays elevated in parabolic moves). 🟩 ADX (14): 55.2 (Trend is extremely strong). Market Depth 🟩 Bullish Skew (Aggressive buying at Ask prices; sparse selling volume). Volatility 🟩 High (ATR 14 is expanding; expect daily ranges of ₹2,000-₹3,000). Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (MCX, TradingView, Investing.com, Spot Market Rates via Data Accuracy Protocol.) OI 🟩 OI Up / Price Up (Fresh Longs being added even at record highs). PCR 🟩 1.45 (Put Call Ratio indicates strong bullish sentiment and support building). VWAP 🟩 Price > VWAP (Intraday average is well below current market price, supporting longs). Turnover 🟩 Very High (Record volumes recorded in near-month contracts). Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A (Parabolic moves invalidate standard harmonic reversal patterns). IV/RV 🟩 IV Spiking (Implied Volatility is rising, suggesting traders expect the explosive move to continue). Options Skew 🟩 Positive Skew (Far OTM Calls are trading at a premium). Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Weekend data limitation). Block Trades 🟩 Large Institutional Buys detected in the last hour of trade. COT Positioning 🟩 Net Long Exposure is at a 6-month high for Managed Money. Cross-Asset Correlation 🟩 Positive with Gold and Industrial Metals, Negative with USD. ETF Rotation 🟩 Inflows continuing into Silver ETFs globally. Sentiment Index 🟩 Extreme Greed (FOMO buying is visible in retail and prop desks). OFI 🟩 Strongly Positive (Order flow is one-sided towards buying). Delta 🟩 Long Delta dominating the options chain. VWAP Bands 🟩 Breakout above the +2 Standard Deviation band. Rotation Metrics 🟩 Outperformer (Beating Gold and Copper in daily percentage gains).
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver mcx continuesly buying recommended from 151600,buy dip Parameters Data Asset Name Silver MCX (Dec 2025): ₹1,67,650.00 Price Movement Buy side: , , . If break then downside possible towards , , . Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active / T1: ₹1,69,800, T2: ₹1,71,800, T3: ₹1,73,500 / SL: ₹1,65,000 Risk Reward 🟩 1:1.6 (Current trade is high momentum. SL ₹1,65,000 and T1 ₹1,69,800 offers favorable upside potential.) / Threshold: Breakout above - ₹1,68,500 & Breakdown below -₹1,65,278 Confidence 🟩 25/30 (Dominant signals Extremely Bullish hain. High conviction on continuation.) Probability 🟩 85% Max Pain 🟥 ₹1,68,000 - ₹1,70,000 (Next Max Pain zone, suggesting option writers are scrambling to adjust positions, fueling the up move.) DEMA Levels 🟩 20/50/100/200/250 DEMA: Price sabhi key MAs se exponentially upar hai, confirming a parabolic move. Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,66,500 (Psychological/Minor Support), S2: ₹1,65,278 (Previous High), S3: ₹1,64,250 (Strong Base). Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹1,68,500 (Immediate Target), R2: ₹1,70,500, R3: ₹1,72,000 (New All-Time High territory). ADX/RSI/DMI 🟥 RSI (14): 81.25 (Extremely Overbought) ADX (14): 45.10 (Trend strength is very high/parabolic.) Market Depth 🟩 Extreme Bullish Skew (Continuous buying at every dip, indicating fear of missing out.) Volatility 🟩 ATR (14): Very High (Expected volatility due to high momentum breakout.) Source Ledger 🟩 Verified (MCX, COMEX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv via Data Accuracy Protocol.) OI 🟩 OI increase with strong price rise (Aggressive Long Build-up), confirming a major breakout move. PCR 🟩 1.35 (Very high, indicating heavy Put writing at lower levels, which acts as a strong safety net.) VWAP 🟩 Price is significantly above VWAP (VWAP approx. ₹1,64,000), showing huge intraday buying power. Turnover 🟩 Record High (Highest turnover, validating the conviction behind the price jump.) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 None Dominant (Pure momentum rally.) IV/RV 🟩 IV is High, RV is High (High volatility and high price change are both present.) Options Skew 🟩 Extremely Positive Skew (Upside Call options ke premiums sky-high hain.) Vanna/Charm 🟩 Strong Positive (Market makers need to buy futures aggressively to hedge, accelerating the price rise - gamma squeeze). Block Trades 🟩 Significant Buy Block Trades (Institutional big players entering the long side.) COT Positioning 🟩 Record Net Longs (Managed money positions at historical highs, confirming the global view.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟩 Negative Correlation with DXY - Extreme (DXY crash is directly fueling Silver). ETF Rotation 🟩 Max Inflows (ETFs like SLV mein massive inflows dekhe ja rahe hain.) Sentiment Index 🟥 Extreme Greed (Caution!) (Risk is high, but trend is king.) OFI 🟩 Extreme Positive (Order Flow suggests overwhelming buying pressure.) Delta 🟩 Max Positive (Option positions strongly skewed for upside.) VWAP Bands 🟩 Trading outside Upper Band (Parabolic move and extreme strength.) Rotation Metrics 🟩 Overwhelming Inflow (Top performing asset in commodity space.)
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
SILVERHello & welcome to this analysis Silver had a dream run from August to October before going into a sideways correction. Just like Gold, it too is forming a triangle, now likely into its last leg. Comex Silver an ascending triangle as long as it does not trade above $54.40 could dip down to $51.50 - 50.75 to complete the formation of the triangle provided the expected last leg down does not go below 48.63. MCX Silver is a contracting triangle (due to $:INR) as long as it does not trade above 165818 could dip down to 157000 - 155000 to complete the formation of the triangle provided the expected last leg down does not go below 150350. Upon completion of the triangles the upside target on resumption of uptrend are $59 / INR 186000 All the best
MCX:SILVER1!
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
silver mcx update this week ahead of fomc meetmcx silver now trading in higher range top made 185000+++ if market sustain above 185300 than new rally till 187--188--190000++ have to watch this lvl for next rally--- interday or short term---silver stay abv 183300 looks above 184--185000++++ if this fulfill than buy on dips sl use @182300-- its trading ideas-- 2nd probability--- silver sustain below 180700@ than looks sharp dwn side till 179880--179200-178600+++++ than must use sl thereafter hurdle will face 181500
MCX:SILVER1!
by kailashcfa33
Options Trading Basics1. What Are Options? An option is a financial derivative whose value depends on an underlying asset such as stocks, indices, commodities, or currencies. Each option contract grants the buyer certain rights based on the type of option: Call Option: Right to buy the underlying asset. Put Option: Right to sell the underlying asset. The price at which the transaction may occur is called the strike price, and the time until the contract expires is the expiration date. 2. Types of Options A. Call Options A call option gives the buyer the right (not obligation) to purchase the underlying asset. Traders buy calls when they expect the price to rise. If the asset price goes above the strike price → the buyer profits. If the asset price stays the same or falls → the buyer loses the premium paid. B. Put Options A put option gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset. Traders buy puts when they expect the price to fall. If the asset price falls below the strike price → the buyer profits. If the asset price stays the same or rises → the buyer loses the premium paid. 3. Key Terminology Every Options Trader Must Know Premium The cost paid to buy an option. Calculated based on demand, volatility, time to expiry, and underlying price. Strike Price The price at which the underlying asset can be bought or sold via the option. Expiration Date Options contracts expire after a certain date—daily, weekly, or monthly. Lot Size Options are traded in predefined quantities (lots), not single shares. In-the-Money (ITM), At-the-Money (ATM), Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Option: ITM: Spot > Strike ATM: Spot ≈ Strike OTM: Spot < Strike Put Option: ITM: Spot < Strike ATM: Spot ≈ Strike OTM: Spot > Strike 4. How Options Pricing Works (The Basics) Option pricing is influenced by multiple factors. These are captured by a model called the Black-Scholes Model, and the key components are: A. Intrinsic Value The real value of the option if exercised today. Call Intrinsic = Spot − Strike (if positive) Put Intrinsic = Strike − Spot (if positive) B. Time Value Extra value based on how much time is left until expiration. More time → higher premium. C. Volatility Higher volatility increases the chance of significant price moves, resulting in costlier options. Implied volatility (IV) is a critical factor. D. Interest Rates & Dividends They have a relatively small impact but still influence pricing. 5. Why Trade Options? (Benefits) Options offer advantages that stocks cannot provide. 1. Leverage With a small premium, traders can control a large position. 2. Hedging Options can protect portfolios from adverse market movements. Example: Buying puts acts like insurance for a stock portfolio. 3. Flexibility Options allow profit in up, down, and sideways markets. 4. Limited Risk for Buyers The maximum loss for an option buyer is limited to the premium. 6. Risks Associated with Options Options come with risks, especially for beginners. A. Time Decay (Theta) Options lose value as expiration approaches if the underlying doesn’t move favorably. B. Volatility Risk If volatility decreases after entry, options can lose value even if price moves correctly. C. Liquidity Risk Low liquidity can cause slippage and widen bid–ask spreads. D. Unlimited Risk for Option Sellers While buyers have limited risk, option sellers can face theoretically unlimited loss, especially in naked call writing. 7. Option Trading Styles A. Intraday Options Trading Positions are opened and closed within the same day. Highly dependent on volatility and market momentum. B. Positional Options Trading Holding options for multiple days or weeks; requires understanding of market trend and implied volatility. C. Hedging Based Options Used by investors and institutions to reduce portfolio risk. 8. Popular Option Trading Strategies 1. Buying Calls and Puts Simple directional trades based on expected movement. Buy Call → Bullish view Buy Put → Bearish view 2. Covered Call Holding shares and selling a call option against them → generates income. 3. Protective Put Holding shares and buying a put → protects against downside. 4. Vertical Spreads Buying and selling options of the same type and expiry but different strike prices. Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread These help reduce risk and cost. 5. Straddle Buying ATM call + ATM put. Profits from big moves in any direction. 6. Strangle Buying OTM call + OTM put; cheaper than straddle, requires large move. 9. Option Greeks – The Building Blocks To understand how an option behaves with market changes, traders use Greeks. Delta Measures the sensitivity of option price to a ₹1 change in the underlying. Call Delta: 0 to 1 Put Delta: −1 to 0 Theta Measures time decay. A negative value indicates loss in premium daily. Vega Measures sensitivity to volatility. Higher IV → higher premium. Gamma Shows how quickly Delta changes with underlying movement. Rho Measures sensitivity to interest rates. Understanding Greeks is essential for risk management and developing advanced strategies. 10. How Options Settlement Works In India: Index Options: Cash-settled Stock Options: Physical settlement If you hold an ITM stock option till expiry, you must: Buy shares (for calls) Deliver shares (for puts) This increases margin requirements. 11. Best Practices for Beginners ✔ Start with Buying Options (Limited Risk) ✔ Avoid Selling Naked Options initially ✔ Use Stop Loss and Risk Management ✔ Trade liquid stocks/indices like NIFTY, BANKNIFTY ✔ Track Implied Volatility (IV) before entering ✔ Avoid holding OTM options to expiry ✔ Maintain a trading journal 12. Conclusion Options trading is a versatile and powerful instrument that provides tremendous opportunities for traders—whether they seek profits during market movements, consistent income, or portfolio protection. However, the complexities of pricing, volatility, time decay, and risk require proper knowledge, discipline, and strategy. Understanding the basics—call and put options, premiums, strike selection, Greeks, and risk management—sets a strong foundation for successful trading. With practice, patience, and the right mindset, options can become a valuable part of every trader’s toolkit.
MCX:SILVER1!Education
by TechnicalExpress
As said earlier upmove will continue today booked 1800 points Parameters Data Asset Name: Price Silver MCX (March 2026 Fut): ₹1,79,100 🟩 (+4782 Points) (+2.74%) Price Movement Upmove will continue to , if break then breakout Until not break if break then , possible. R:R 1 : 1.5 Current Trade AVOID (Near major psychological resistance. T1: 181000, T2: 185000, SL: 177000) Probability 🟩 90% (Extreme bullish momentum and fundamental strength) Confidence 🟩 24/30 (80.00%) Max Pain 🟨 ₹1,68,000 (Far below current price, indicating short-writers are severely trapped and may fuel a continued rally.) DEMA Levels 20/50/100/200/250 DEMA: Price is significantly above all major averages. 🟩 Supports S1: 1,77,000 🟩 (Immediate breakout support), S2: 1,75,000 🟩 (Key Pivot), S3: 1,72,000 🟩 (Strong demand zone) Resistances R1: 1,81,000 🟥 (Psychological/Technical Target), R2: 1,85,000 🟥 (Next target range), R3: 1,90,000 🟥 ADX/RSI/DMI RSI (14): Near 76 🟩 (Overbought but strong trend), ADX (14): Near 55 🟩 (Extremely strong trend) Market Depth (L3) Strong buying skew with aggressive bids. Selling volume is sparse/low. 🟩 Volatility (IV/RV) ATM IV: High 🟩 (Volatility rising with price, confirming momentum) Source Ledger MCX, Comex, TradingView, Investing.com, Rupeezy 🟩 OI Long Buildup (OI and Price both rising sharply) 🟩 PCR (OI) Near 1.11 🟨 (Slightly high, indicates some short-term profit booking possible but overall bullish) VWAP Price trading significantly above VWAP. 🟩 (Strong buyer conviction) Turnover High Volume/Turnover 🟩 (Breakout is backed by liquidity) Harmonic Pattern N/A 🟨 IV/RV IV is elevated 🟩 (Good for selling OTM Puts) Options Skew Call Skew 🟩 (Demand for Upside Calls is high) Vanna/Charm N/A 🟨 Block Trades High buying interest detected in large lots. 🟩 COT Positioning N/A 🟨 Cross-Asset Correlation Positive correlation with Gold and weak USD. 🟩 ETF Rotation Inflows into Silver ETFs (e.g., AGQ, SIVR) are visible. 🟩 Sentiment Index Extreme Greed/FOMO 🟩 (Strong buying pressure) OFI Strongly Positive Order Flow 🟩 Delta Long Delta is dominating the options chain. 🟩 VWAP Bands Price breaking above the +2 Standard Deviation band. 🟩 Rotation Metrics Metal and Commodity sector showing strong rotational strength. 🟩
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver today booked 3400 points profit,buy given yesterday alsoSilver today booked 3400 points profin on 2 traded , continuesly buying recommended from Friday evening. Parameters Data Asset Name Silver MCX Reason 🟩 Global rate cut hopes aur strong technical momentum ke chalte aggressive buying. R:R 🟩 R:R ratio is favourable for a target near R2. / Threshold: Breakout above - & Breakdown below Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active ⬆️ Target T1 - 161800.00 , T2 - 163200.00 , T3 - 165000.00 , Stop loss - 158500.00 Probability 🟩 75% (Global tailwinds aur strong breakout ke aadhar par.) Confidence 🟩 20/30 (Dominant bullish signals from multiple indicators.) Price Movement Buy side: 161800.00, 163200.00, 165000.00. If break 158500.00 then downside possible towards 157500.00, 156000.00, 155000.00. FNO Data (OI/PCR) 🟩 OI Buildup: Long Buildup (Heavy volume and price rise). PCR: Neutral to slightly bullish trend. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Strong demand zone (Liquidity) ₹1,59,000 - ₹1,60,000 ke aas-paas shift ho gayi hai. Max Pain 🟨 ₹1,60,000 ke kareeb (Option sellers ₹1,60,000 par max pain chahte hain.) Gamma Exposure 🟩 Positive Gamma shift, jo upside momentum ko support kar raha hai. Supports 🟩 S1: 159000.00 (Previous Resistance turned Support) | S2: 157500.00 (20-Day EMA) | S3: 156000.00 (Major Pivot) Resistances 🟥 R1: 161800.00 (Next Short-Term High) | R2: 163200.00 (Major Supply Zone) | R3: 165000.00 (Recent High/All-time High Zone) DEMA Levels 🟩 Price 20/50/100 DEMA se kaafi upar hai, jo strong Bullish trend confirm karta hai. ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14) \sim 70+ (Overbought, but Strong Buy signal) aur ADX \sim 40+ (Strong Trend). Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟩 Gold (Comex) aur Crude Oil (Comex) ke saath positive correlation. COT Positioning 🟩 Managed Money long positions badha rahe hain (Bullish signal). Source Ledger 🟩 MCX, Comex, Bullions.co.in, Investing.com, Groww (Verified & Triangulated).
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver bought wt 151600 booked at 157200 AI report in descriptinParameters Data Asset Name Silver MCX Reason 🟩 Global industrial recovery, strong Gold correlation, aur MCX par aggressive long build-up ke chalte massive breakout. R:R 🟩 1:1.40 (Risk reward T3 target ke liye theek hai. SL deep hai, high volatility ko reflect karta hai.) / Threshold: Breakout above - & Breakdown below Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active | T1: 158000.00, T2: 159500.00, T3: 161000.00 | SL: 154490.00 Probability 🟩 95% Confidence 🟩 27/30 (Overwhelming momentum aur sector-wide rally ke chalte Extremely High Confidence.) Price Movement Buy side: 158000.00, 159500.00, 161000.00. If break 157000.00 then downside possible towards 156000.00, 154490.00, 153000.00. FNO Data (OI/PCR) 🟩 Massive Long Build-up. OI mein sharp increase. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Liquidity breakout levels ke upar high hai. Max Pain 🟥 155,000 (Spot se kaafi neeche shift ho gaya hai, jo strong bullish sentiment confirm karta hai.) Gamma Exposure 🟩 Gamma spike ho gaya hai, jo upar ki taraf acceleration provide karega. Supports 🟩 S1: 157000.00 (Minor) | S2: 156000.00 (New Support) | S3: 154490.00 (Previous Close) Resistances 🟥 R1: 158000.00 (Minor Supply) | R2: 159500.00 (Psychological) | R3: 161000.00 DEMA Levels 🟩 Price sabhi DEMA se bahut upar trade kar raha hai. ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14) 80 (Overbought, but extreme momentum.) Market Depth 🟩 Buying pressure selling pressure se bahut zyada hai. Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟩 Gold ki strong rally Silver ko lead kar rahi hai. COT Positioning 🟩 Domestic speculators aur large players aggressive long hain. Source Ledger 🟩 MCX, NSE, TradingView, Investing.com.
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Price Reversal Setup from Key Demand & Supply Zones”⚡ **Analysis:** The price has entered a strong **Demand Zone**, marked by previous accumulation and sharp bullish reaction. Buyers have consistently defended this area, indicating strong institutional interest. Current candles show slowing bearish momentum + wick rejections. 📌 **Trade Plan:** • **Entry:** Inside or slightly above the Demand Zone • **Stop Loss:** Below the zone (candle close basis) • **Target 1:** Nearest supply zone • **Target 2:** Previous swing high • **Invalidation:** Clean breakdown and close below the zone 🎯 **Reasoning:** Demand zones usually represent wholesale prices for institutions. If the zone holds, a bounce toward the next supply area is likely.
MCX:SILVER1!
by TheBottomHunter
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