One must admit it is remarkable where the unemployment level was pre-covid. There would have been a considerable melt up within the market at peak employment like that.
It is a trying state of affairs as the unemployment rate is viciously targeting various sectors relentlessly.
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Here you will clearly see the highest Unemployement rate ever recorded in the US. This chart only goes back so far, but if you could go back further you would see that it is definetly the highest rate ever.
The Awesome Oscillator (graph below) went from negative to positive this month (MAY 2020). The last two times this happened in 2001 and 2008, recessions hit the US and the world economies were shacked. Is this the starting point of the downward acceleration spiral?
I've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing...
This indicator has proven a fairly one as to turns in the market over the years and if (and it is a big if with the situation ever fluid and the US chucking literally trillions to keep the economy afloat)) but if this Covid-19 pandemic does send the US into a recession and the unemployment rates up with it then perhaps we shall have to start looking for a more...
I don't hear to much debate about what part of the business cycle we're in. We were in the part of the cycle when no profit generating companies go parabolic ( the of the cycle if you don't get the reference). This unemployment chart suggests we might be in for some darker days ahead.