Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 9, 2025
🔻 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone and may reverse upwards today or tomorrow.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone. The two momentum lines are converging, signaling weakening downward pressure and a potential reversal.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
The price level around 3318 (previous buy zone) failed to hold, despite a ~100-pip bounce before continuing to decline.
Currently, price is nearing the lower boundary of a contracting triangle – a typical abcde corrective pattern.
Based on the current wave structure:
Wave d (purple) appears to be complete.
Price is now likely forming wave e, expected to end near 3279, which coincides with the triangle’s bottom support.
If the pattern holds, a strong breakout above the upper triangle boundary is expected once wave e completes.
However, note: the formation of a triangle during a corrective wave often signals that the uptrend is nearing its end in the longer term.
📌 Trading Plan
Given the complex 3-wave structure typical of triangles, risk is elevated, so:
Trade with reduced position size, or
Preferably wait for a confirmed breakout above the triangle before entering.
Suggested Trade Setup:
✅ Buy Zone: 3280 – 3277
❌ Stop Loss: 3270
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 3309
TP2: 3342
TP3: 3390
