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Gold 1H – Slight Correction or Bullish Reaccumulation Ahead?XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Khang_Trader 📈 Market Context Gold is currently trading around $4,110/oz as traders digest a mix of macroeconomic signals and shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The market focus today centers on U.S. housing-starts and jobless-claims data. Strong data → could trigger short-term selling pressure on gold. Weak data → may fuel safe-haven demand, extending the current rally. Treasury yields remain steady, while dovish rate-cut bets for early 2026 are gaining traction. Expect liquidity sweeps around session highs/lows before a clear directional move, as institutional traders fine-tune their positioning within the week’s range. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Perspective) The overall market structure remains bullish, with recent BOS confirming continuation after a prior accumulation phase. A minor Change of Character (ChoCH) has appeared, signaling a short-term correction — likely a liquidity grab before the next bullish leg. Liquidity below $4,090-$4,100 has been swept, bringing price into the discount zone near $4,050-$4,080. A potential re-accumulation zone is forming around that area — buyers should wait for M15/M30 BOS or ChoCH confirmation before entering. Upside liquidity targets align with the $4,350-$4,380 region — a premium supply zone where sellers may re-enter. 🔴 Sell Setup Entry: 4378 – 4376 Stop-Loss: 4386 Take-Profit Targets: 1️⃣ 4325 2️⃣ 4260 📌 Only consider this setup if price reaches the supply zone and shows bearish confirmation (BOS/ChoCH on lower timeframe). 🟢 Buy Setup Entry: 4050 – 4080 Stop-Loss: 4045 Take-Profit Targets: 1️⃣ 4150 2️⃣ 4300 3️⃣ 4350 + 📌 Look for BOS or ChoCH confirmation on M15 before execution. Avoid entering right before U.S. data releases. ⚠️ Risk Management Tips Avoid trading during high-impact news — spreads can widen and cause slippage. Scale in/out gradually; take partial profits at liquidity zones. Once structure confirms continuation, trail stop-loss to lock profits. A clean break below $4,000 would invalidate the bullish continuation scenario — re-evaluate bias if that happens. Maintain a clear Risk : Reward ratio (ideally 1 : 3 or better). ✅ Summary Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above $4,000. Buy zone: 4050-4080 (watch for confirmation). Sell zone: 4376-4378 (look for reaction and BOS down). Key invalidation: Below 4000. Watch U.S. data this session — it will likely dictate short-term volatility and direction. FOLLOW RYAN FOR MORE USEFUL TRADING IDEAS!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Lucy_Avana
3
XAU/USD (Gold) chart on the 3-hour timeframe...XAU/USD (Gold) chart on the 3-hour timeframe, I can see my using the Ichimoku Cloud and have marked a range with a potential breakdown area and a target point already indicated on the chart. Here’s what the chart suggests: Current price: around 4031 USD Range low (support): around 4030 USD (which is currently being tested) Range high (resistance): around 4190–4200 USD Breakdown target (measured move): around 3940–3950 USD 📉 Analysis: Price has broken below the range box, indicating a bearish breakout. The Ichimoku Cloud ahead is bearish and thick, showing potential resistance. A measured move from the height of the range (≈ 150–170 points) projects downward to around 3940–3950 USD. My chart already marks 3944.299 as the target point, which aligns well with this projection. ✅ Target Summary Type Level (USD) Comment Short-term target 3,944 Measured move target after range breakdown Extended target 3,900–3,880 Possible continuation if bearish momentum sustains Invalidated above 4,090–4,100 If price re-enters the range and closes above the cloud
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HussaiN_JaNi
4
Gold Trading Strategy for 29th October 2025 (IST)🪙 TVC:GOLD Intraday Trading Plan 📈 Buy Setup: 🔹 Entry: Above the high of 15-min candle (Close > $3990) 🎯 Targets: $4000, $4015, $4030 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $3975 (or below candle low for confirmation) 📉 Sell Setup: 🔹 Entry: Below the low of 15-min candle (Close < $3915) 🎯 Targets: $3903, $3889, $3870 🛑 Stop Loss: Above $3930 (or above candle high for confirmation) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading in gold or any commodity involves substantial risk. This plan is for educational and informational purposes only — not financial advice. Always assess your own risk before entering any position. 📊
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 22, 2025) 🔹 1. Momentum D1: The D1 momentum is preparing to turn bullish, signaling the start of a new upward trend. → We can expect at least 3–5 consecutive bullish days ahead. H4: We need to wait for the H4 candle to close to confirm the reversal signal. If confirmed, there’s a strong possibility that today will form an intraday uptrend. H1: H1 momentum has already turned upward, but it’s now in the overbought zone. Therefore, the current rise won’t be strong, and a minor pullback is needed to bring momentum back to the oversold area — creating a foundation for a more stable bullish move. ________________________________________ 🔹 2. Wave Structure D1 Timeframe: Yesterday saw a sharp decline, but D1 momentum is now preparing to reverse upward. Counting the correction candles, we already have five candles, suggesting that the market may soon enter a new bullish phase lasting 3–5 days or more. During this recovery phase, we need to monitor two key scenarios: • If wave movements overlap and lack strength, and when D1 momentum returns to the overbought zone but price fails to break the previous high, then the Wave 4 (yellow) scenario is still in play. • If price rises sharply and decisively, the recent correction might only be part of Wave 3 (yellow), meaning the bullish trend is continuing. H4 Timeframe: Yesterday’s structure was identified as a Flat correction, and it remains valid. Price has retraced into the Wave 4 zone of the smaller degree structure, reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of Wave A. If Wave 5 (purple) is now developing, the ideal target would be around 4476. However, if price rises with overlapping waves, this could instead represent a corrective move within Wave 4 (yellow), targeting the previous high zone between 4381 and 4476. H1 Timeframe: Within Wave W, there is a small Flat correction, where Wave C extended to twice the length of Wave A. Now, Wave Y (blue) has also declined to 2× Wave W, suggesting weakening buying power. Even so, in the short term, we still expect an intraday bullish move today. → The trading bias remains buy-side until H4 momentum reaches the overbought area and reverses. ________________________________________ 🔹 3. Trading Plan Buy Zone: 4101 – 4098 Stop Loss (SL): 4088 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 4190 ________________________________________ 🔹 4. Notes Liquidity and resistance zones are already marked on the chart. → Wait for price to break and retest those areas to confirm a valid Buy setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
7
GOLD - ENTERS COREECTION PHASESymbol - XAUUSD Gold is currently undergoing a corrective phase following approximately six weeks of aggressive upward movement. Price action is forming a consolidation range while continuing to pressure the support zone. The recent record breaking rally became overheated, prompting profit-taking and long liquidation. Additionally, a gradual shift in market sentiment and macroeconomic backdrop is contributing to capital outflows. However, ongoing US–China trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, including the cancellation of Trump’s meeting with President Putin, continue to pose economic risks that could provide underlying support for the precious metal. Overall, the current pullback appears to be a healthy corrective pause within the broader structure. The 4000 level remains a critical support area. A sustained recovery above 4110 would indicate that buyers are interested, though further momentum largely depends on developments surrounding global trade policies. Resistance levels: 4100, 4110, 4163 Support levels: 4058, 4000 A decisive breakdown of the lower boundary of the trading range could trigger a deeper corrective wave. The 4000 level is the primary focus, as strong volatility may occur around this zone. Given the current market conditions - with declines matching the previous intensity of the rally, patience is warranted until momentum stabilizes, enabling more informed technical decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by akshit_official
2
XAUUSD/GOLD WEEKLY OVERVIEW PROJECTION 25.10.25“XAUUSD/GOLD WEEKLY OVERVIEW 25.10.25”: 🟡 Pair: XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) 📅 Timeframe: Weekly 📊 Chart Type: Price action with liquidity zone and retest entry plan 📌 Key Levels: Resistance / Upper Target Zone: ~4,360 – 4,400 Entry Zone / Supply-Demand Range: ~4,057 – 4,145 Support / Lower Target Zone: ~3,868 🧭 Market Structure Analysis: The price is currently consolidating inside a mid-range zone (4,057–4,145) after a strong previous down move. Liquidity zones are marked both above and below, suggesting potential breakout and retest setups. The market is showing accumulation or indecision before a big move. 🛒 Buy Scenario (Bullish Plan): Price may retest the lower boundary of the entry zone (~4,057–4,145). If a bullish retest/confirmation candle forms → Long Entry. Target: ~4,360 area (major resistance). Stop-loss likely placed slightly below 4,057. 🟢 This aligns with a potential reversal or continuation of higher timeframe bullish structure. 🐻 Sell Scenario (Bearish Plan): Price may break below the entry zone, retest it from the bottom, and reject. If a bearish retest/confirmation candle forms → Short Entry. Target: ~3,868 support level. Stop-loss likely placed slightly above 4,145. 🔴 This aligns with a continuation of the recent bearish momentum. ⚠️ Additional Notes: Watch for fake breakouts near the entry zone. Weekly candles can give strong direction but might take 1–2 weeks to fully play out. High impact news related to gold or USD can accelerate the move. ✅ Summary Plan: Buy entry: After bullish retest of 4,057–4,145 → TP 4,360 Sell entry: After bearish retest of 4,057–4,145 → TP 3,868 SL: Just outside the opposite edge of the entry zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
3
Gold Breaks Trendline: 4000 Back in FocusYesterday's trading session brought further downside pressure as gold pushed lower to test the 3880 zone, which is just above the monthly open. We have seen a decent recovery bounce from there, suggesting some buying interest is emerging at these lower levels. However, it's important to maintain perspective here while we're seeing short-term stabilization, the reversal signs on higher timeframes haven't materialized yet. We need to see more convincing price action and stronger closes on the larger timeframes before we can confidently call this as reversal to bullish case. Also today we have extremely narrow CPR positioned at 3954. When we see such tight CPR levels, it often signals either an impending trend reversal or the potential for a high volatility session ahead. The early Asian session has already given us something to work with price is attempting to reclaim this CPR zone, which is a constructive development. Adding to the bullish case, we've also seen a breakout from the descending trendline structure that had been capping rallies over the past few sessions. From a tactical perspective, the immediate support zone to monitor is 3900-3910.... If buyers can defend and sustain price action above this level, we could see gold make an attempt toward the first meaningful hurdle at 4000-4010. This target zone is particularly significant as it aligns with today's R1 pivot and the prior week's low, creating a confluence resistance area. A daily close above 4000-4010 would be an encouraging sign that momentum is genuinely shifting back in favor of the bulls and could open the door for further upside. As for my positioning, I'm maintaining my existing buy positions and continuing to manage them as the price action develops. The risk-reward from these levels still appears favorable given the technical setup unfolding.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle
2
Gold at Key Support — Will XAUUSD Bounce From 3900 - 3895?Gold is testing a crucial demand zone at 3900–3895, where buyers have previously stepped in. If this level continues to hold, we could see a bullish intraday rebound play out. 📊 Trade Setup Buy Zone: 3900 – 3895 Stop Loss: 3878 Target 1: 3924 Target 2: 3936 💡 Technical Outlook Price action is hinting at renewed buying pressure around 3900, with candles showing wicks and slowing momentum on the downside. This could indicate that bulls are defending this key zone, setting up for a short-term bounce toward the 3920–3935 area. Watch for: A bullish engulfing candle or strong rejection wick near 3895 Increasing volume confirmation on smaller timeframes (M15–H1) 🧭 Bias ✅ Expecting a bullish bounce from the 3900–3895 zone ❌ Invalidated if price closes below 3878 ⚠️ Disclaimer This is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always manage your risk and use proper position sizing.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by InvestPro_India
2
Arbitrage as the Invisible Hand of Market BalanceUnderstanding the Concept of Arbitrage and Why Cross-Market Opportunities Exist. Introduction: The Timeless Appeal of Arbitrage In the world of finance and trading, arbitrage is one of the oldest and most reliable concepts for making profits with minimal risk. The idea is simple yet powerful — taking advantage of price discrepancies for the same asset across different markets or instruments. Arbitrageurs act as the balancing agents of the financial ecosystem. By exploiting small differences in prices, they help maintain market efficiency and price stability. While it might sound straightforward — buy low here, sell high there — in practice, arbitrage is an intricate process driven by technology, timing, and global financial linkages. Cross-market arbitrage, in particular, shows how interconnected today’s world is, where an event in New York or London can instantly impact prices in Mumbai or Singapore. Let’s delve deeper into what arbitrage means, its types, and why cross-market opportunities continue to exist despite the rise of advanced trading systems and AI-driven algorithms. 1. What is Arbitrage? Arbitrage is the practice of simultaneously buying and selling an asset in different markets to profit from the difference in price. The key here is simultaneity — both transactions occur at the same time to lock in a risk-free profit. In essence, arbitrage ensures that the law of one price holds true: an identical asset should have the same price across all markets. When this is not the case, arbitrageurs step in, quickly exploiting the gap until prices converge again. Example: Suppose shares of Company X trade at ₹1,000 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and ₹1,005 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). A trader can buy on NSE and sell on BSE simultaneously, earning ₹5 per share in profit before transaction costs. While this seems small, when executed at scale with automation, such trades can generate significant returns. 2. The Core Principle: The Law of One Price At the heart of arbitrage lies the law of one price, which states that in an efficient market, identical assets should trade for the same price when exchange rates, transaction costs, and other frictions are considered. If gold is priced at ₹6,000 per gram in India and $70 per gram in the U.S., and the exchange rate is ₹85 per dollar, then ₹6,000/₹85 = $70.5 per gram — nearly identical. Any meaningful difference would invite traders to move gold (physically or virtually) from one market to another until prices align. However, real-world markets aren’t always perfectly efficient, which gives rise to temporary price imbalances — and hence, arbitrage opportunities. 3. Types of Arbitrage in Financial Markets Arbitrage comes in several forms, each suited to different asset classes and market structures. Below are the most common: a) Spatial (Geographical) Arbitrage This is the classic form of arbitrage where an asset is bought in one location and sold in another. Common examples include commodities, currencies, or stocks listed on multiple exchanges. b) Temporal Arbitrage This occurs when traders exploit price differences across time periods. For instance, buying a stock today and selling a futures contract for delivery next month when the future price is higher. c) Statistical Arbitrage Here, traders use quantitative models to identify mispriced securities based on historical relationships. It’s not purely risk-free but relies on probability and mean reversion. d) Triangular Arbitrage (Currency Markets) In the forex market, triangular arbitrage involves exploiting discrepancies among three currency pairs. For instance, if EUR/USD, USD/GBP, and EUR/GBP don’t align mathematically, a trader can profit by cycling through the three conversions. e) Merger or Risk Arbitrage This form occurs during corporate events such as mergers or acquisitions. Traders speculate on price movements between the target company’s current price and the offer price. f) Cross-Market Arbitrage This involves exploiting price differences for the same or related assets across different markets or asset classes — such as spot and futures, or equity and derivatives markets. Cross-market arbitrage is increasingly important in today’s globalized, interconnected trading landscape. 4. Understanding Cross-Market Arbitrage Cross-market arbitrage happens when traders take advantage of price differences for the same security, index, or commodity across multiple exchanges or platforms — often across borders. For example, if Reliance Industries trades at ₹2,500 on the NSE but ₹2,507 on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) as a derivative instrument, an arbitrageur could buy the cheaper one and sell the higher-priced version, profiting from the spread until prices converge. This form of arbitrage often occurs between: Spot and futures markets (cash-and-carry arbitrage) Domestic and international exchanges Equity and derivative markets Cryptocurrency exchanges across countries The profit margins may be narrow, but in high-volume or algorithmic environments, these trades can yield consistent gains. 5. Why Do Cross-Market Opportunities Exist? If markets are efficient, one might wonder — why do such price differences exist at all? Theoretically, arbitrage should eliminate inefficiencies quickly. However, several real-world frictions allow opportunities to emerge and persist, at least temporarily. Let’s explore the main reasons: a) Market Segmentation Not all investors have access to all markets. Regulatory barriers, currency restrictions, or exchange-specific membership requirements can create segmented markets, allowing the same asset to trade at different prices. For instance, Chinese A-shares often trade at higher valuations on mainland exchanges compared to Hong Kong-listed H-shares of the same company due to limited investor access in mainland markets. b) Currency Exchange Rates When assets are priced in different currencies, exchange rate movements can create temporary mispricing. Even slight discrepancies in forex rates can lead to arbitrage between markets. c) Liquidity Differences Some markets are more liquid than others. Lower liquidity can lead to price delays or inefficiencies, allowing faster traders to exploit differences between high-liquidity and low-liquidity venues. d) Information Asymmetry Not all markets react to information simultaneously. If news reaches one market faster, prices there adjust sooner, creating short-lived arbitrage opportunities elsewhere. e) Transaction Delays and Infrastructure Gaps Even in an era of high-frequency trading, minor lags in data transmission or order execution can result in tiny but exploitable differences between exchanges. f) Demand and Supply Imbalances Cross-market demand differences — due to institutional orders, fund flows, or hedging needs — can push prices temporarily away from equilibrium, creating room for arbitrage. g) Regulatory and Tax Factors Different tax structures, capital controls, or transaction charges across countries can cause effective price differences for the same asset. 6. How Arbitrage Helps Maintain Market Efficiency Arbitrage isn’t just about making profits — it plays a crucial stabilizing role in the global financial system. Whenever arbitrageurs exploit price gaps, their actions force prices back toward equilibrium. For example, buying in the cheaper market increases demand (raising the price) while selling in the expensive market increases supply (lowering the price). This self-correcting mechanism ensures that prices remain aligned across regions and instruments. In this sense, arbitrage acts as a natural regulator of market inefficiencies, contributing to: Price uniformity Efficient capital allocation Market liquidity Reduced volatility 7. The Role of Technology in Arbitrage In earlier decades, arbitrage required manual observation, phone calls, and physical trade execution. Today, it’s dominated by algorithms and high-frequency trading (HFT). Modern arbitrageurs use advanced systems to: Track price discrepancies in microseconds Execute simultaneous trades across exchanges Manage massive volumes with minimal latency Technological advancements such as co-location (placing servers near exchange data centers), API connectivity, and AI-driven analytics have transformed arbitrage from human-driven intuition to machine-executed precision. However, this also means that arbitrage opportunities now close much faster — often within milliseconds — requiring traders to invest heavily in technology. 8. Risks and Challenges in Arbitrage While arbitrage is considered “risk-free” in theory, in reality, several factors can turn it risky: Execution Risk: Prices may change before both sides of the trade are completed. Latency Risk: Delays in order processing can erase profits. Transaction Costs: Fees, taxes, and slippage can turn a profitable trade into a loss. Regulatory Restrictions: Some countries restrict cross-border or high-frequency trading. Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations can alter effective profits. Thus, while arbitrage is low-risk compared to speculative trading, it demands precision, capital, and infrastructure to succeed consistently. 9. Real-World Examples of Cross-Market Arbitrage a) NSE–BSE Price Differentials Large-cap Indian stocks often trade simultaneously on both exchanges. Automated systems constantly scan for minute price differences to execute cross-exchange arbitrage. b) SGX–Nifty Futures Arbitrage For years, the SGX Nifty index futures in Singapore traded slightly differently than Indian NSE Nifty futures. Arbitrageurs would buy in one market and sell in the other, balancing the two indices. c) Cryptocurrency Exchanges Crypto markets, being decentralized and fragmented, often exhibit significant cross-exchange price differences. For instance, Bitcoin might trade at a premium in South Korea compared to the U.S. — known as the “Kimchi Premium.” 10. The Future of Arbitrage in a Globalized Market As technology continues to advance and global connectivity deepens, traditional arbitrage margins are shrinking. However, new forms of arbitrage are emerging, especially with the rise of: Digital assets and tokenized securities Decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms Algorithmic and machine-learning-based trading strategies Cross-market inefficiencies will likely persist in newer, evolving markets where regulatory fragmentation, liquidity gaps, and data asymmetry continue to exist. In other words, while arbitrage profits might be slimmer, the scope of opportunities is expanding — not disappearing. Conclusion Arbitrage is more than just a trading strategy — it’s a mechanism that keeps the global financial system efficient and interconnected. By seizing fleeting opportunities born from imperfections, arbitrageurs ensure that prices reflect true value across geographies and instruments. Cross-market opportunities exist because no market is perfectly efficient. Differences in time zones, liquidity, regulation, and information flow continuously create temporary imbalances. For traders equipped with speed, strategy, and precision, these moments translate into consistent profits — and for the broader system, into greater market harmony and stability. In a world that trades 24/7 across borders, arbitrage will always find a way — adapting to new technologies, instruments, and markets — remaining one of the purest expressions of financial logic and opportunity.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
2
PCR Trading Strategies How Option Trading Works Let’s take an example. Suppose you believe Infosys stock will go up from ₹1,500 to ₹1,600 soon. You buy a call option with a strike price of ₹1,500 for a premium of ₹20. If the stock rises to ₹1,600, your option’s value also rises. You can sell it for a profit. If the stock stays below ₹1,500, the option expires worthless, and you lose only the ₹20 premium. Risks and Rewards Option trading can be highly rewarding but also risky. The risk for buyers is limited to the premium paid, but sellers (writers) of options can face unlimited losses if the market moves against them. Hence, it’s important to understand how options work before investing.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
Is Gold (XAUUSD) Set for a Major Pullback? Short Below 4185!Gold has been in a massive range between 3500 and 3120 (a 320-point base). Following the breakout, we witnessed an explosive rally up to 4380 —an 880-point surge, nearly 2.5x the previous range! But now, caution is warranted. Gold has formed a bearish reversal candle at the peak, and the RSI is deeply overbought . Despite the strong bullish trend, a confirmed short signal will trigger only if Gold breaks below 4185 . Trade Setup: Entry: Sell Gold (XAUUSD) below 4185 Sell on Rallies: Add to shorts near 4280 Targets: 1st target: 4050 - 4000 2nd target: 3850 Stop Loss / Invalidation: Close shorts if price moves above 4402 Why this setup matters: With Gold’s momentum stalling at key resistance and technical indicators signaling overextension, a well-timed short could capture a strong corrective move. Do you agree with this bearish outlook? 👍 Like if you’re ready to short! 💬 Comment your take or questions below — let’s build a powerful, informed trading community! Your feedback drives our content and keeps everyone trading smarter. Let’s make those pips together! 🚀 Happy Trading, – The InvestPro Team
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by InvestPro_India
6
Banking Sector Leadership & PSU Bank Rally – A Deep Dive1. Introduction The Indian stock market has witnessed several phases of leadership rotation over the years. At times, technology stocks dominate; at other times, energy or infrastructure sectors take the front seat. However, whenever the broader market gears up for a major uptrend or a new bull cycle begins, the Banking sector often takes the leadership role — and within that, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks frequently emerge as key outperformers. The recent rally in PSU banks and the resurgence of the banking sector as a whole highlight not just cyclical market behavior but also deep structural changes in the Indian economy. To understand this movement, it’s important to analyze both why banking leads and what’s fueling the PSU bank rally in particular. 2. Why Banking Sector Often Leads the Market a. Core to Economic Growth Banks are the financial backbone of any economy. When economic activity expands — whether through manufacturing, infrastructure, or consumer spending — banks benefit directly. Credit growth picks up, deposit bases rise, and loan demand strengthens. Therefore, the health and momentum of the banking sector often act as a mirror of economic strength. b. Credit Cycle Expansion A strong economy usually corresponds to an expanding credit cycle. When businesses borrow more for expansion, and individuals take more loans for consumption (homes, vehicles, education), banks record higher net interest income (NII) and better profitability. During the early-to-mid phase of a bull market, credit growth typically accelerates sharply, turning the banking sector into a market leader. c. Interest Rate Cycle and Net Interest Margins The interest rate environment plays a crucial role. When rates stabilize after a hiking cycle, banks — especially those with a large low-cost deposit base — witness margin expansion. With loan yields rising faster than deposit costs, Net Interest Margin (NIM) improves. This scenario often unfolds in the mid-stages of economic recovery — precisely when the stock market’s optimism about growth is at its peak. d. Heavy Market Weightage In indices like the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, banking and financial services account for around 35–40% of total weightage. Naturally, whenever large investors — both domestic and foreign — turn bullish on India, their first entry point is often the banking sector, leading to index-level leadership. 3. Banking Sector’s Structural Transformation The Indian banking landscape has undergone a major transformation over the last decade — both in private and public sectors. a. Clean-up of Balance Sheets Post the 2014–2018 NPA crisis, Indian banks, particularly PSUs, faced massive challenges due to bad loans, corporate defaults, and poor asset quality. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and RBI’s asset quality reviews forced banks to recognize, provision, and resolve bad assets. Today, most major banks — especially SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, and Union Bank — have net NPA ratios below 1%–1.2%, compared to 5–6% a few years ago. This clean-up has set the stage for a sustainable recovery. b. Digitization & Efficiency Gains The digital transformation in banking — UPI, mobile apps, digital KYC, and paperless loans — has enhanced operational efficiency, reduced cost-to-income ratios, and improved customer acquisition. PSU banks, once lagging behind in technology, have now made significant progress through partnerships with fintechs and internal digital drives (like SBI’s YONO or BoB World). c. Government Recapitalization and Consolidation Between FY2017 and FY2021, the Indian government infused over ₹3 lakh crore into PSU banks, strengthening their capital buffers. Additionally, bank mergers created stronger entities — for example: Bank of Baroda absorbed Dena and Vijaya Bank, Canara Bank merged with Syndicate Bank, Union Bank merged with Andhra and Corporation Bank. This consolidation reduced fragmentation, created scale, and enhanced competitiveness. 4. The PSU Bank Rally – What’s Driving It? The PSU bank rally has been one of the most notable themes in the Indian stock market in recent years. After a decade of underperformance, these stocks have turned into multi-baggers, with several PSU banks delivering 200–500% returns in just 2–3 years. Let’s decode the reasons behind this rally: a. Massive Valuation Re-rating For a long time, PSU banks traded at deep discounts to book value — often between 0.3x to 0.6x — reflecting investor pessimism. With the clean-up of balance sheets, profitability return, and stable management, the market started to re-rate these banks. Currently, large PSU banks trade at 1.0–1.5x P/B, still lower than private peers (2.5x–4x), leaving room for further revaluation. b. Return of Profitability Post-2020, PSU banks started showing consistent quarterly profits, driven by lower provisioning costs and higher NII. Example: SBI’s FY2025 profits are expected to exceed ₹75,000 crore, Canara Bank, BoB, and Union Bank are recording ROEs above 15%, levels not seen in over a decade. These results changed investor sentiment from skepticism to confidence. c. Credit Growth Momentum PSU banks are witnessing robust credit growth of 12–14%, led by retail loans (housing, personal, auto), SME lending, and corporate capex revival. Their strong presence in rural and semi-urban areas gives them an edge in deposit mobilization, leading to stable funding costs. d. Capital Adequacy & Improved Asset Quality Thanks to recapitalization and internal profit generation, most PSU banks now have Capital Adequacy Ratios above 14%, giving them room to expand their balance sheets. Their Gross NPA ratios have fallen below 4%, compared to 10–12% in 2018. e. FII and DII Interest Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have both turned net buyers of PSU banks. The segment is considered a proxy for India’s growth story — benefiting from both cyclical and structural drivers. Moreover, PSU banks offer attractive dividend yields (3–5%) and stable earnings visibility, making them a favorite in the current interest rate environment. 5. Comparing PSU vs Private Banks Parameter PSU Banks Private Banks Valuation (P/B) 0.9–1.5x 2.5–4.0x ROE/ROA Improving (12–15%) High (16–18%) NIM 3–3.3% 3.5–4.5% Asset Quality Improved, but slightly lower Very strong Technology Adoption Rapidly catching up Already advanced Growth Drivers Retail, Infra, SME, Rural Credit Premium Retail, Digital, Corporate Investor Sentiment Recovering fast Already strong The valuation gap between PSU and private banks has started narrowing, but PSUs still remain value plays, whereas private banks are seen as quality growth plays. 6. Banking Sector as Market Leader in 2025 Cycle In the ongoing market cycle, banking is again showing signs of leadership emergence, driven by several factors: a. Capex Revival India’s private and public sector capex is gaining momentum — from roads and ports to data centers and manufacturing. Banks will play a financing role in this multi-trillion-rupee expansion phase. b. Liquidity & Deposit Growth Despite competition from small finance and fintech banks, traditional banks — especially PSUs — have maintained strong CASA (Current Account Savings Account) ratios, ensuring liquidity. This gives them pricing power in a tightening liquidity environment. c. Credit Quality Cycle at Its Best With low slippages and strong recoveries, India is in the best credit quality cycle in two decades. Credit costs (provisions as a % of assets) are at multi-year lows, directly boosting profitability. d. Government Support & Reforms The government continues to push for PSU bank modernization, privatization of smaller entities, and improvement in governance. The “bad bank” (NARCL) initiative has further helped clear legacy NPAs. e. Rising Financialization of Savings With rising income levels and formalization, more money is flowing into banking and financial systems — deposits, mutual funds, and loans — further deepening the sector’s dominance. 7. Technical & Market Structure Perspective From a market structure angle, the Bank Nifty index is often the leading indicator for Nifty’s trend direction. Historically: When Bank Nifty outperforms Nifty, it signals broad-based bullishness. When PSU banks outperform private banks, it often indicates a mid-stage bull market, where value stocks catch up with growth stocks. As of 2025, both Bank Nifty and Nifty PSU Bank Index are trading near record highs, showing strong volume support, healthy price structure, and institutional accumulation — confirming that leadership lies with the banking pack. 8. Risks & Challenges Despite strong fundamentals, certain risks remain: Interest Rate Volatility: A sharp rate hike cycle can squeeze margins. Global Slowdown: If export demand or global growth falters, corporate loan demand may soften. Competition from Fintechs: Fintechs may eat into certain profitable retail segments. Policy Risks: Privatization delays or regulatory tightening can temporarily hurt PSU valuations. However, these are manageable risks in the current macro setup, as most PSU and private banks maintain high provisioning buffers and stable management practices. 9. Outlook for 2025 and Beyond The outlook for the banking sector remains constructive and bullish. Analysts expect: Credit growth of 12–14% CAGR, NIMs to remain steady, ROEs to sustain above 14%, Asset quality to remain stable. PSU banks are expected to narrow the valuation gap with private banks as they continue to deliver consistent profits, higher dividends, and improved governance. In the medium term (2025–2027), the PSU Bank Index could potentially outperform broader indices, supported by: Credit growth in infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs, Rising investor confidence, India’s macroeconomic resilience. 10. Conclusion The Banking sector’s leadership in the market is not accidental — it is rooted in economic cycles, financial system dominance, and investor psychology. Every major bull market in India’s history has been led, directly or indirectly, by banks. The PSU Bank rally represents not just a price recovery but a structural turnaround story — from being crisis-hit entities plagued by NPAs and inefficiency to becoming profitable, tech-savvy, dividend-paying institutions aligned with India’s growth narrative. As India’s GDP moves toward the $5 trillion mark, and capex, consumption, and credit cycles expand together, banks — both private and public — will remain the torchbearers of the next leg of India’s equity bull market.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) 4H chart:XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) 4H chart: I can see a clear double top pattern near the 4,330 zone (circled areas). Price has broken the ascending trendline and is currently retesting near the 4,080–4,100 resistance zone (previous support). The green zone shows the neckline area that price already broke below. 📉 Technical Breakdown: Pattern: Double Top Neckline: Around 4,130 Measured Move Target: Equal to the distance from the top (~4,330) to the neckline (~4,130), i.e. ≈ 200 points. Applying that below the neckline gives: → 4,130 - 200 = 3,930 However, my chart’s “Target Point” line is drawn slightly lower — around 3,848.57, which aligns with a deeper support level and the full projection of the trend break. ✅ Final Target Zone: Primary Target: 3,930 Extended / Full Target: 3,850 (3,848.57) So: > 🎯 XAU/USD Bearish Target = 3,850 – 3,930 zone
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HussaiN_JaNi
4
Gold Trading Strategy for 27th October 2025🪙 GOLD ($XAU/USD) Trading Plan 📈 Buy Setup Entry: Buy above the high of the 30-minute candle, only if price closes above $4145 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $4158 🎯 2nd Target: $4170 🎯 3rd Target: $4185 Stop Loss: Below the breakout candle’s low Notes: A strong close above $4145 could indicate bullish momentum continuation. Watch for volume confirmation before entry. 📉 Sell Setup Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle, only if price closes below $4080 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $4065 🎯 2nd Target: $4050 🎯 3rd Target: $4035 Stop Loss: Above the breakdown candle’s high Notes: A decisive close below $4080 may trigger a downside move — confirm with bearish momentum before taking a short position. ⚠️ Disclaimer 📜 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and you should consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred while following this analysis.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
Gold Under Pressure: Critical Support Lost, 4040 Reclaim Needed Yesterday's session provided clear confirmation of the bearish pressure building in gold as price faced strong resistance around the CPR area between 4094-4108. The early Asian session rejection was particularly telling, as buyers simply couldn't get enough strength to push through this zone. What followed was a decisive breakdown below the psychologically important 4000 level, which had been acting as major support throughout the recent price action. For today's session, CPR zone positioned at 4001-4040. This is now our critical battleground. Bulls need to reclaim at least 4040 (CPR TC) to suggest any meaningful recovery is underway. Without a clean breakout above this level, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, and bears are firmly in control of the near-term direction. The current price structure suggests sellers are gaining confidence, especially after yesterday's breakdown. On the downside, the first intraday support level for today is to watch at 3933. This could provide a temporary bounce zone if we see continued selling pressure. However, given the momentum shift and the loss of 4000 support, we need to approach any long positions cautiously here. The market is clearly favoring the bears at this point, and it would take a significant shift in sentiment to change that dynamic in the immediate term. My Position : I am still managing my buy entries and currently in floating loss ,max extension that I am expecting in lower side is at around 3800-50 area and that is manageable as per my current lot sizing.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle
Gold Trading Strategy for 28th October 2025🌟 💰 GOLD TRADING SETUP 💰 🌟 📊 Instrument: 🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) 🟢 BUY SETUP ➡️ Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle — once price closes above 💲4021 🎯 Targets: 🎯 T1: 💲4033 🎯 T2: 💲4045 🎯 T3: 💲4070 🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 💲4010 (or as per your risk tolerance) 🔴 SELL SETUP ➡️ Entry: Sell below the low of the 15-min candle — once price closes below 💲3944 🎯 Targets: 🎯 T1: 💲3932 🎯 T2: 💲3919 🎯 T3: 💲3903 🛡️ Stop Loss: Above 💲3955 (or as per your risk tolerance) ⚠️ Disclaimer: 📢 This is not financial advice. These are purely educational and technical analysis-based trading ideas. 💼 Always do your own research and use proper risk management before taking any trades. 📉 The market is volatile — trade at your own discretion and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
Gold Trading Strategy | October 29-30✅ From the 4-hour timeframe, gold remains within a medium-term bearish trend channel. The price has repeatedly been rejected around the MA10/MA20 levels, indicating that short-term rebounds are limited and sellers still dominate the market. The Bollinger Bands have opened downward, and the middle band (around 4003) is pressing lower, showing that recent rebounds are merely weak corrective moves rather than a trend reversal. Candlesticks have failed multiple times to stand above the middle band, facing pressure on every rebound — a typical weak, oscillating, downward structure. The support near 3886 is an important short-term defense level; if broken, price may further test the 3860–3840 region. ✅ On the 1-hour timeframe, gold briefly rebounded to the 4030 area before retreating sharply and breaking below the cluster of moving averages, showing heavy selling pressure above. Candles are currently running below the MA5 and MA10, with both sloping downward, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. The Bollinger middle band is also turning lower, strengthening the current downward pressure. Rebounds are repeatedly capped around the middle band, and there is a high chance of testing the lower band near 3888. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 3853 / 3980–3990 / 4000 🟢 Support Levels: 3920–3915 / 3886 / 3855 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference: 🔰 If gold rebounds to 3980–3990 and shows rejection, consider scaling into short positions, targeting 3920–3886 🔰 If gold drops to 3885–3890 and stabilizes, consider light-lot long positions, targeting 3950-3960. 🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingPro
XAUUSD/GOLD WEEKLY SELL PROJECTION 26.10.25Here’s a clear explanation of the 4H SELL SETUP shown in your chart 📊👇 📌 Chart Breakdown (XAU/USD — Gold 4H) Pattern: Rising wedge / structure breakdown Trendline: “4H Uptrend Line – Broken” ✅ Candle signal: Bearish Engulfing at ATH (strong reversal confirmation) 🧭 Key Levels 🟥 Stop Loss: Around 4,225.640 (above structure high) 🟡 Entry Zone: ~4,192 (below trendline break) 🟢 Targets: TP1: 4,125 TP2: 4,075 TP3: 4,031 🧠 Trading Logic Market formed a Bearish Engulfing at the top. The main trendline was broken, indicating possible trend reversal. After a retest of the broken structure, price is expected to continue downward. Multiple TPs (TP1, TP2, TP3) help scale out profits gradually. SL is placed above the previous high to protect against a fake breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
XAUUSD Intraday Trade Plan | Buy @ 4060Gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to hold above the 4060 support zone — a key level that acted as a strong base in previous sessions. If this level continues to hold, we could see a potential bullish rebound in the intraday session. 📊 Trade Setup: Buy Zone: 4060 – 4062 Stop Loss: 4052 Target 1: 4075 Target 2: 4090 💡 Analysis: Price action is showing signs of demand re-entering near the 4060 level, suggesting buyers are defending this zone. A clean break and hold above 4070 could trigger momentum toward 4090. However, a breakdown below 4052 would invalidate the setup. 🧭 Bias: Intraday Bullish (above 4060) ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Manage your risk accordingly.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by InvestPro_India
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H SELL LIMIT PROJECTION 28.10.251H Sell Limit Projection Chart for XAU/USD (Gold): 📝 Chart Summary (28.10.25) Timeframe: 1 Hour Setup Type: Sell Limit Projection Market Structure: Bearish 📈 Key Levels: Sell Limit Zone (Entry Area): Around $3,958 (Resistance R1) Stop Loss: Around $3,982 (Top of FVG + Trendline) Target 1 (TP1): Support S1 – around $3,920 Target 2 (TP2): Support S2 – around $3,883 📉 Technical Confluences: 🔹 1H Downtrend Line acting as dynamic resistance 🔹 FVG (Fair Value Gap) aligning with entry zone 🔹 Fibonacci retracement zone overlap 🔹 Resistance R1 matches previous supply zone 🧭 Trading Plan Idea: Wait for price to retrace back to $3,958 zone. Place Sell Limit order in the zone. Stop loss: Above $3,982 zone to protect from fakeouts. Take Profit: First target at $3,920 (partial booking), second target at $3,883 (runner). ⚠️ Risk Notes: Watch for liquidity grabs above R1 before rejection. Avoid market entry — wait for price confirmation near the zone. Adjust SL if price structure shifts on lower timeframes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97