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BUYER FOMO: BREAK ALL THE RULES📌 GOLD – Trading Plan OANDA:XAUUSD Follow Signals On weekend Linda published you got SELL PLAN 3720 +120PIPS Absolutely that up first down after: 1. Market Context (H1) Main trend: Bullish (following several upward BOS). The price has just broken the peak and created new liquidity above the 3715 – 3720 zone. Below, there are CP Orders + FVG at 3693 / 3669 / 3650 → the price may retrace to test demand before continuing to rise. Above: the 3749 – 3750 zone is a strong resistance, likely to see liquidity sweeps. 2. Main Scenario – BUY with the trend Entry 1: CP ORDER + Trend Timing Zone: 3693 – 3695. Stoploss: 3685. TP1: 3715. TP2: 3730+. R:R ratio: ~1:3. Entry 2: Deeper CP ORDER Zone: 3669 – 3670. Stoploss: 3660. TP1: 3710. TP2: 3730+. R:R: ~1:4. Entry 3: Final FVG Zone: 3650 – 3655. Stoploss: 3640. TP: 3710 – 3720. This is the final entry; if it breaks, consider the trend reversed. 3. Alternative Scenario – SELL counter-trend (scalp) Entry Sell Zone: 3749 – 3750 (resistance + liquidity). Stoploss: 3757. TP1: 3730 – 3735. TP2: 3695 – 3670 (if selling pressure is strong). Confirmation required on M5/M15: MSS down. Bearish engulfing. Long wick rejection. 4. Capital Management Total risk for the day: max 3 – 4% of the account. Each trade risk 1 – 1.5%. Prioritize Buy, Sell is just a small scalp. If the price hits TP1 → move SL to entry, let the rest run. 5. Notes Main trend: Bullish, don't attempt too many counter-sells. Only sell when clear signals appear at 3749 – 3750. The 3693/3669 mark is a key zone → if it breaks strongly, wait for trend confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
7
Part 2 Support and Resistance1. Who Participates in Option Markets? There are two main participants in options trading: Option Buyers: Pay premium upfront. Limited risk, unlimited profit potential (in calls). They speculate on price movement. Option Sellers (Writers): Receive premium from buyers. Limited profit (only premium collected), but potentially large risk. Often institutions or experienced traders who use hedging. 2. Why Trade Options? Options are not just for gambling on price. They are multipurpose: Leverage: You control more value with less money. A small premium can give exposure to big stock moves. Hedging: Protect your stock portfolio from market crashes. Flexibility: You can profit whether the market goes up, down, or even stays flat. Income: Selling options regularly earns premiums, like rental income. 3. Option Pricing (The Premium) The premium of an option has two parts: Intrinsic Value: The real value if exercised today. Example: Stock price ₹1,500, Call strike ₹1,450 → Intrinsic value = ₹50. Time Value: Extra amount based on time left until expiration and market volatility. The longer the time, the higher the premium. Higher volatility also increases premium because big moves are more likely. So, Option Price = Intrinsic Value + Time Value. 4. Types of Option Trading Strategies Options are flexible because you can combine calls, puts, buying, and selling to create different strategies. Here are some important ones: A. Basic Strategies Buying Calls – Bullish view. Cheap way to bet on rising prices. Buying Puts – Bearish view. Cheap way to bet on falling prices. Covered Call – Hold stock + sell call to earn extra income. Protective Put – Hold stock + buy put to protect against fall. B. Intermediate Strategies Straddle – Buy one call and one put at the same strike. Profits from big moves in either direction. Strangle – Similar to straddle, but with different strikes. Cheaper but needs bigger move. Spread Strategies – Combining buying and selling options of different strikes to limit risk. Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Iron Condor C. Advanced Strategies Butterfly Spread – Limited risk and reward, used when expecting no big movement. Calendar Spread – Exploits time decay by selling short-term and buying long-term options.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
5
GOLD WEEKPLAN: UP FIRST DOWN AFTEROANDA:XAUUSD Footprint Analysis The Footprint chart provides a more detailed view of the order flow. Here are some key points: Price Pullback: The recent candles show a decrease in buying pressure (green) and an increase in selling pressure (red). Volume Footprint: The trading volume (Total) and Delta (the difference between buying and selling pressure) on each candle show the order distribution. The candle on the 19th has a negative Delta (~ -5.96 K), indicating that selling pressure is dominant, which aligns with the corrective pullback. However, there's no major volume divergence, suggesting that this may only be a typical correction. Detailed Footprint Analysis: The numbers within each candle show the number of buy orders (on the left) and sell orders (on the right) at each price level. When the price pulls back to the Imbalance or Strong OB zone, it's crucial to monitor the Footprint for signs of buying pressure returning (Delta turning positive or significant buying volume at key price levels), which would serve as a confirmation signal for a long entry. OANDA:XAUUSD General Analysis The XAUUSD market is in a strong uptrend, confirmed by the market structure: Higher Highs (HH): Each new peak is higher than the previous one. Higher Lows (HL): Each new trough is higher than the previous one. Recently, the price created a Break of Structure (BOS), breaking the previous high, which indicates a continuation of the uptrend. After the BOS, the price established a new high (HH) and is now making a corrective pullback to find a strong support zone before continuing its upward momentum. Imbalance (Fair Value Gap - FVG): This is a liquidity void created when the price moves too quickly. According to SMC theory, the market tends to return to fill this gap. Location: The price range is from ~$3660 to ~$3670 USD. Significance: This zone could act as a temporary support level. If the price returns to this area, it might fill the Imbalance and then continue to rise. Strong OB (Order Block): This is a large block of orders left behind by "Smart Money" and often serves as a strong support or resistance zone. Location: The price range is from ~$3645 to ~$3655 USD. Significance: This is the strongest support zone to consider for a long entry. The price is likely to pull back to this area, tap into the order block, and then bounce back up to continue the trend. Additionally, there are two important liquidity zones to note: Buy Side Liquidity ($$$): Located above the most recent high (~$3700 USD). The price has the potential to move up to sweep this liquidity. Sell Side Liquidity ($$$): Located below the most recent low (~$3620 USD). This zone could be swept if there is a sharp market drop, but it's highly likely that the price will respect the bullish structure and not break this low.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
6
GOLD – Breakout / Swept High – Where to BUY?1. Market Overview Gold prices are consolidating around 3655 – 3660 after showing a short-term bearish structure. On the H1 chart, we can see clear supply and demand zones: • Liquidity Buy Zone near 3640 (potential demand area). • Imbalance / Supply Zone around 3670 – 3680. The broader higher-timeframe trend is still bullish, but in the near term the market is retesting liquidity levels. ________________________________________ 2. Key Levels & Zones • Liquidity Buy Zone: 3640 – 3645 → important support. • Sell Scalp Zone / Imbalance: 3670 – 3680 → short-term resistance. • Higher High Target (HH): 3700 – 3710 → strong higher-timeframe resistance. • Long-term Support: 3620 – 3630. ________________________________________ 3. Main Trading Scenarios 🟢 Long Setup (with trend) • Wait for price to revisit the Liquidity Buy Zone (3640 – 3645). • If bullish reversal signals appear (pin bar, engulfing candle, etc.), consider entering a Long position. 🎯 Targets: • Short-term: 3678 (trendline break retest). • Mid-term: 3700 – 3710 (higher high). 🔴 Short Setup (scalp only) • If price pushes into the Sell Scalp Zone (3670 – 3680) and faces strong rejection → take a Short scalp. • 🎯 Target: 3640 – 3645. ⚠ Note: Shorts go against the main bullish trend, so they should be managed quickly and not held for long. ________________________________________ 4. Trade Management Notes • Focus on Long trades near support, as higher timeframe bias is still bullish. • Short positions should only be taken as scalp setups near resistance. • Risk control: limit risk to 1–2% per trade, avoid holding trades against the main trend. ________________________________________ 📌 Conclusion Gold (XAUUSD) is currently testing the descending trendline and resistance zone. • A successful breakout may lead price towards 3700+. • Otherwise, the market is likely to dip back into 3640 before starting the next bullish leg.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
5
Why Gold and US Bonds Move Together!Hello Traders! If you follow global markets, you’ll notice that Gold and US Bonds often move in the same direction. When one rises, the other usually does too. But why does this happen? Let’s understand the link in simple words. 1. Both Are Seen as Safe Havens In times of uncertainty, whether it’s recession fears, geopolitical tension, or market crashes, investors rush towards safety. Gold is considered a timeless store of value. US Bonds are backed by the US government, making them the safest fixed-income asset globally. So, in panic situations, both attract inflows together. 2. Driven by Interest Rates & Inflation When inflation rises or central banks cut interest rates: Bond yields fall, but bond prices rise as investors lock in fixed returns. At the same time, low yields make gold more attractive since the “opportunity cost” of holding it decreases. That’s why both often rally when interest rates are falling. 3. Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel Both gold and US bonds are influenced by the US dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for global buyers, pushing prices up. Foreign investors also buy US bonds when the dollar weakens, supporting bond demand. 4. Why Traders Must Watch This Correlation If both gold and US bonds are rising, it usually signals fear and risk-off sentiment in global markets. If both are falling, it often reflects rising risk appetite, money moving back into equities. This correlation can help you gauge global market mood even before equities react. Rahul’s Tip: Don’t just watch Nifty in isolation. Keeping an eye on gold and US bonds can give you early clues about global risk sentiment. It’s like reading the heartbeat of safe-haven flows. Conclusion: Gold and US bonds move together because they serve the same purpose, safety in uncertain times . Understanding this relationship can help you read the bigger picture and prepare for market shifts more confidently. If this post helped you connect the dots, like it, share your views in comments, and follow for more global market insights!
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TraderRahulPal
3
GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by tradergyan01
4
FOMC XAUUSD: Time to Hold Super SELL before FOMC🟡 XAUUSD Daily Trading Plan – Ahead of FOMC 📊 Market Context Gold (XAUUSD) has recently moved out of its accumulation/manipulation zone and is now trading in the 3,684–3,690 range. The market structure is bullish after a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by a Break of Structure (BOS). Still, imbalances remain below the present price level, suggesting the possibility of a retracement before further upside continuation. Liquidity pools are forming around 3,721–3,725, which increases the risk of false breakouts (liquidity traps) near the FOMC. 🔎 Technical Analysis (SMC Perspective) Structure: Bullish bias on H1/H4, confirmed by higher highs and BOS. Imbalance Zone: 3,674 → 3,664 (likely to be revisited). Liquidity Pools: Buy-side liquidity: 3,721–3,725 (Sell Zone). Sell-side liquidity: 3,626–3,624 (Equal Low Zone). 🔑 Key Levels Resistance / Sell Zones 3,686.88 (Immediate resistance) 3,721–3,725 (Liquidity Sell Zone) Support / Buy Zones 3,668 (Front End Buy – imbalance retest) 3,656–3,654 (Back End CP Buy Zone) 3,626–3,624 (Equal Low Liquidity Zone) ✅ Priority Scenario – BUY Entry 1 Buy Limit: 3,668 (Front End Zone – imbalance retest) SL: 3,661 TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721 Entry 2 Buy Limit: 3,656–3,654 (Back End CP Buy Zone) SL: 3,648 TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721 Entry 3 Buy Limit: 3,626–3,624 (Equal Low Liquidity) SL: 3,618 TP: 3,690 → 3,700 → 3,721 🔻 Alternative Scenario – SELL (Counter-trade) If the price touches 3,721–3,725 (Liquidity Zone) before revisiting the lower buy zones → look for rejection patterns. Enter SELL if bearish confirmation appears. SL: 3,730 TP: 3,698 → 3,690 → 3,676 ⚠️ Risk Management & Notes Expect high volatility during FOMC – liquidity traps are very likely. Reduce lot size before the news release to minimise risk. Take trades only with confirmation (avoid blind buys/sells). Main directional bias: Bullish as long as 3,648 holds.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
4
GOLD TREND 23/09 SIMPLE ANALYSIS1. Market Context Price is currently moving within an ascending channel. A recent BOS (Break of Structure) indicates that buyers are still in control. There is an untested FVG (Fair Value Gap) and CP (Demand Zone) below. 2. Key Levels Immediate resistance: around 3,758 – 3,760 USD. FVG zone: 3,700 – 3,720 USD. CP (strong demand): around 3,650 USD. Mid-level of interest: 3,702.8 USD (possible retracement point). 3. Trading Scenarios 🅰️ Scenario 1 – Pullback before continuation (higher probability) Price may touch the resistance zone at 3,758 → retrace to test the FVG (3,700 – 3,720). If the pullback extends deeper, it could sweep into the CP zone at 3,650 before bouncing strongly upwards. Entry: Buy around 3,700 – 3,650. SL: Below 3,630. TP1: 3,758 (previous high). TP2: 3,800+. 🅱️ Scenario 2 – Strong breakout continuation If price breaks clearly above 3,760 with high volume → possible breakout buy. Entry: Buy above 3,765 after a retest. SL: 3,740. TP1: 3,800. TP2: 3,830 – 3,850. 🅾️ Risk scenario – Reversal If price breaks down below the channel and closes H4 candles under 3,630 → bullish structure is invalidated. In this case, best to stay out or look for short setups towards 3,580. 4. Risk Management & Notes Risk per trade < 1–2% of account. Prioritise long entries from the FVG/CP zones, avoid chasing highs. Keep an eye on USD & Gold-related news (economic calendar may cause strong volatility).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
2
Part 1 Support and Resistance1. Introduction: What Are Options? In financial markets, traders and investors use different instruments to make profits or manage risks. Among these, options are one of the most powerful yet misunderstood tools. Unlike stocks, where you directly own a share in a company, or bonds, where you lend money, options are derivative contracts — meaning their value comes from an underlying asset (like a stock, index, commodity, or currency). An option gives its buyer a right, but not an obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a fixed price within a certain period. This ability to choose, without being forced, is why it’s called an option. Options are widely used for three reasons: Speculation – Traders use them to bet on price movements. Hedging – Investors use them to protect against losses in their portfolios. Income Generation – Some traders sell options to collect premium income. Now, let’s break it down step by step. 2. Key Terms in Option Trading Before going deeper, you need to know the language of options: Call Option: A contract that gives the buyer the right to buy an asset at a set price within a specific time. Put Option: A contract that gives the buyer the right to sell an asset at a set price within a specific time. Strike Price (Exercise Price): The price at which the option buyer can buy (call) or sell (put) the underlying. Premium: The price you pay to buy an option. This is like a ticket fee for getting the right. Expiration Date: The date when the option expires. After this, the contract becomes worthless if not exercised. In the Money (ITM): An option that already has value if exercised. Out of the Money (OTM): An option that would not make money if exercised now. At the Money (ATM): When the stock price and strike price are nearly equal. Example: Suppose Infosys is trading at ₹1,500. A Call option with a strike of ₹1,450 is ITM because you can buy lower than market. A Put option with a strike of ₹1,550 is ITM because you can sell higher than market. 3. How Options Work Think of options like an insurance policy. When you buy a call option, it’s like booking a movie ticket in advance. You pay a small fee (premium) to reserve the seat (stock at a certain price). If the stock rises, you use your ticket. If not, you just lose the fee, not more. When you buy a put option, it’s like buying insurance for your car. If something bad happens (stock falls), you can still sell at a higher strike price. If nothing happens, your premium is the cost of insurance. This is the beauty of options: limited risk (only the premium), but potentially unlimited reward (especially for calls).
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
A bullish outlookWaves 1, 2, and 3: The chart shows a completed impulse sequence with a long and strong Wave 3, which followed a Bull Flag continuation pattern. Wave 4 Correction: Gold is currently believed to be in a corrective Wave 4. This correction is taking the shape of an Ascending Broadening Wedge, a pattern characterized by two upward-slanting, diverging trendlines. Support: A key support level is marked at approximately $3,324.790, which served as the base for the recent major rally. Price Target: The red arrow indicates an expected rally towards the region between the 2.414 ($3,818.931) and 3.0 ($3,865.262) Fibonacci levels. Gold is poised for another significant rally to new highs, potentially reaching the $3,820 - $3,865 price range.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by hilmiyus
3
Gold Today Intraday TradeDear Trader I,m Analysis Gold has recently hit fresh highs around $3,700/oz, but now there’s profit-booking and resistance in that zone. Support is seen near $3,640–$3,630/oz, which has acted as a demand zone in recent dips. Some indicators are overbought (like RSI / Williams %R) or showing signs that upside momentum could be weakening unless price breaks certain resistance levels. There is a possible bearish bias now if gold fails to clear resistance—to the upside, a breakout above ~$3,700+ could trigger further gains --- 📈 Key Levels to Watch Level Type Approximate Price ($/oz) Strong Resistance ~ $3,700–$3,707 Near Resistance ~$3,678–$3,680 Strong Support ~$3,640–$3,630 Deeper Support ~$3,600
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldUsdt
2
Gold Demand Zone Holding – Upside Potential Toward 3710!Gold is currently testing a demand zone around 3640–3650 , which aligns well with moving average support. As long as this zone holds, price action favors a potential bounce toward the falling trendline and eventually the key resistance area near 3710 . Short-term buyers may look for confirmation inside the demand zone before positioning, while a breakdown below 3614 would invalidate this setup. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before investing.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TraderRahulPal
2
Gold Trading Strategy for 18th September 2025📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Trading Strategy 🔔 This is a structured intraday setup for Gold. Follow carefully with strict risk management. ✨ Buy Setup (Bullish Scenario) 🔼 Condition to Enter Long: Wait for a 1-Hour Candle Close above $3692. Entry is valid only if the candle closes above this level, not just a spike. 💰 Entry Price: Above $3692 🎯 Profit Targets: 1️⃣ First Target: $3707 (Quick scalp level) 2️⃣ Second Target: $3715 (Moderate resistance zone) 3️⃣ Third Target: $3728 (Extended bullish move) 🛡️ Suggested Stop-Loss: Place a protective stop below $3682 (approx. 10 points below breakout level). ✨ Sell Setup (Bearish Scenario) 🔽 Condition to Enter Short: Wait for a 15-Minute Candle Close below $3642. Entry is valid only if the candle closes below, not just a wick test. 💰 Entry Price: Below $3642 🎯 Profit Targets: 1️⃣ First Target: $3630 (Initial support break) 2️⃣ Second Target: $3618 (Deeper push) 3️⃣ Third Target: $3605 (Major support zone) 🛡️ Suggested Stop-Loss: Place a protective stop above $3652 (approx. 10 points above breakdown level). ⚠️ Risk Management & Notes Always use strict stop-loss to protect capital. Do not over-leverage; risk only 1–2% of your capital per trade. Wait for candle close confirmation before entering. Avoid emotional entries. If first target is achieved, consider trailing stop-loss to secure profits. Trade only when market conditions align with your plan. ⚠️ Disclaimer 📌 This content is shared for educational & informational purposes only. 📌 This is not financial advice. Always do your own analysis before taking trades. 📌 Trading in gold, forex, and commodities carries significant risk of capital loss. 📌 Past performance does not guarantee future results.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
1
Gold Trading Strategy for 24th September 2025 (IST 0445 AM)📊 GOLD TRADING SETUP (XAU/USD) ✨ Buy Setup 🔼 Entry: Buy above the high of 1-hour candle close above 3792 🎯 Targets: 🥇 3805 🥈 3815 🥉 3825 🛡️ Stop Loss (SL): Place SL a few points below 3792 (manage according to risk appetite). ⚡ Sell Setup 🔽 Entry: Sell below the low of 15-min candle close below 3749 🎯 Targets: 🥇 3739 🥈 3729 🥉 3719 🛡️ Stop Loss (SL): Place SL a few points above 3749 (manage according to risk appetite). 📌 Key Notes 📉 Always wait for candle close confirmation before entering trade. 📈 Position sizing should match your risk tolerance. 🔍 Monitor news/events impacting gold volatility (USD data, Fed updates, geopolitical events). ⚖️ Do not over-leverage. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading in gold and financial markets involves high risk, including possible loss of capital. Always do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
2
Gold Trading Strategy for 17th September 2025✨ GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ✨ 📈 BUY Setup ➡️ Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour closing candle 🎯 Targets: 1st Target – 3715 2nd Target – 3725 3rd Target – 3735 📉 SELL Setup ➡️ Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour closing candle 🎯 Targets: 1st Target – 3660 2nd Target – 3650 3rd Target – 3640 ⚠️ Disclaimer 📌 This is for educational and informational purposes only. 📌 Not a buy/sell recommendation. 📌 Trading in commodities, forex, or stock markets involves risk; please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before taking positions.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
2
LiamTrading – XAUUSD Trading Scenario for TodayGold continues its robust upward momentum and is now approaching the critical resistance zone around 3,697 – 3,700. This is a confluence point with the Fibonacci extension level and also a zone where sellers might re-enter strongly. Technical Analysis On the H1 chart, the price has tested the resistance zone multiple times but hasn't broken through decisively. This indicates that profit-taking pressure is emerging. The sell confirmation zone will form if the price breaks below 3,685 – 3,686, at which point the correction target could be around 3,673. The main Buy Zone is located at 3,650 – 3,645, coinciding with previous support and a strong liquidity area. This is a region where a price increase reaction is likely. Further down, the 3,628 – 3,630 zone is considered solid support on the larger frame, and if retested, it will be a long-term buying opportunity. Conversely, if the price decisively surpasses the strong resistance zone of 3,720 – 3,730, the upward trend will be confirmed to continue, opening up higher targets around 3,750+. Trading Plan Reference Short-term sell around 3,697 – 3,700, SL 3,707, TP 3,686 – 3,673. Short-term buy around 3,650 – 3,645, SL 3,640, TP 3,673 – 3,690. Long-term buy around 3,628 – 3,630, SL 3,620, TP 3,660 – 3,690 – 3,720. These are my personal views on XAUUSD, and you can use them as a reference to build your own plan. If you find this useful, follow me for the latest updates on new gold trading scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
1
Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global MarketsIntroduction Geopolitical risks encompass a broad spectrum of political, economic, and military events that can disrupt the global economic landscape. These risks, ranging from armed conflicts and trade wars to policy shifts and regime changes, have profound implications for financial markets, investment strategies, and economic stability. Understanding the nature of these risks and their potential impacts is crucial for investors, policymakers, and businesses operating in an increasingly interconnected world. 1. Nature and Sources of Geopolitical Risks Geopolitical risks arise from various sources, each with unique characteristics and potential consequences: Armed Conflicts and Wars: Military engagements, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, can lead to significant disruptions in global supply chains, especially in energy and commodities markets. For instance, attacks on critical infrastructure can cause immediate price spikes and long-term supply shortages. Trade Wars and Sanctions: Economic measures like tariffs, export controls, and sanctions can alter trade flows and affect the profitability of multinational corporations. The U.S.-China trade tensions are a prime example, influencing global supply chains and market sentiments. Political Instability and Regime Changes: Shifts in political power, especially in key economies, can lead to policy uncertainties that affect investor confidence and market stability. Changes in leadership can result in abrupt policy shifts, impacting sectors such as energy, finance, and technology. Cybersecurity Threats: Increasing reliance on digital infrastructure makes economies vulnerable to cyberattacks, which can disrupt financial systems, trade, and national security. Environmental and Resource Conflicts: Competition for scarce resources, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions dependent on natural resources. 2. Mechanisms of Market Impact Geopolitical events influence markets through several channels: Market Volatility: Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events can lead to increased volatility in stock and bond markets. Investors often react swiftly to news, leading to sharp price movements. Commodity Price Fluctuations: Conflicts in resource-rich regions can disrupt supply chains, leading to price increases in commodities like oil, gas, and metals. For example, tensions in the Middle East often result in spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions. Currency Instability: Geopolitical risks can affect investor confidence in a country's currency, leading to depreciation or volatility. Countries directly involved in conflicts may see their currencies weaken due to capital outflows. Capital Flows and Investment Patterns: Heightened risks can lead to shifts in investment strategies, with investors seeking safe-haven assets like gold, government bonds, or stable currencies. Emerging markets may experience capital outflows as investors seek safer investments. Supply Chain Disruptions: Conflicts and trade restrictions can interrupt the flow of goods and services, leading to shortages and increased costs for businesses and consumers. 3. Case Studies of Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 led to significant disruptions in global energy markets. Sanctions imposed on Russia resulted in soaring oil and gas prices, affecting global inflation rates and energy security. U.S.-China Trade War: The imposition of tariffs between the U.S. and China in 2018-2019 disrupted global supply chains, affecting industries from electronics to agriculture. Markets experienced heightened volatility as investors adjusted to the changing trade landscape. Brexit: The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union introduced uncertainties regarding trade agreements, regulatory standards, and economic relations, leading to fluctuations in the British pound and stock market volatility. Middle East Tensions: Periodic conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have led to spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions, impacting global markets. 4. Quantifying Geopolitical Risk Measuring geopolitical risk is challenging due to its multifaceted nature. However, several indices and models have been developed to assess and quantify these risks: Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR): Developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), this index quantifies geopolitical tensions based on news coverage and policy uncertainty. It provides a historical perspective on the frequency and intensity of geopolitical events. BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI): This indicator tracks market attention to geopolitical risks by analyzing brokerage reports and financial news stories. It helps investors gauge the level of concern in the market regarding specific geopolitical events. Market-Driven Scenarios (MDS): Employed by institutions like BlackRock, MDS frameworks estimate the potential impact of geopolitical events on global assets by analyzing historical parallels and expert insights. 5. Investor Strategies in the Face of Geopolitical Risks Investors can adopt several strategies to mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks: Diversification: Spreading investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographies can reduce exposure to specific geopolitical events. Hedging: Utilizing financial instruments like options, futures, and currency swaps can help protect portfolios from adverse market movements. Focus on Fundamentals: Investing in companies with strong fundamentals, such as robust balance sheets and resilient business models, can provide stability during turbulent times. Monitoring Geopolitical Developments: Staying informed about global events and understanding their potential implications can help investors make timely and informed decisions. Scenario Planning: Developing and regularly updating risk scenarios can prepare investors for potential geopolitical shocks and guide strategic responses. 6. Implications for Policymakers and Businesses Policymakers and businesses must recognize the significance of geopolitical risks and take proactive measures: Policy Formulation: Governments should develop policies that enhance economic resilience, promote diversification, and reduce dependence on volatile regions. Crisis Management Plans: Establishing frameworks to respond to geopolitical crises can help mitigate their impact on national security and economic stability. Public-Private Collaboration: Cooperation between governments and businesses can lead to more effective risk management strategies and resource allocation during crises. Investment in Technology and Infrastructure: Strengthening digital infrastructure and cybersecurity can reduce vulnerabilities to cyber threats and enhance economic resilience. Conclusion Geopolitical risks are an inherent aspect of the global economic landscape, with the potential to influence markets, investment strategies, and economic policies. While these risks cannot be entirely eliminated, understanding their sources, mechanisms, and potential impacts allows investors, businesses, and policymakers to develop strategies to mitigate their effects. By adopting proactive risk management approaches and staying informed about global developments, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of geopolitical risks and maintain stability in an interconnected world.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
4
Gold holds firm at 3,63x | Caution for Friday session🟡 XAU/USD – 19/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context FED : Probability of a 25bps cut in October is 91.9%, while holding rates is only 8.9% → almost certain FED will continue easing. US News : No major data today, market remains quiet. Gold : Sharp moves in Asia session, but support 3,632 – 3,630 held strong. Yesterday’s Buy at 3,62x delivered 200 pips , confirming this zone as a “fortress” support. Note : Today is Friday – end of the week session, unexpected volatility may occur before the weekly close → strict risk management required. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold remains bullish, but caution is needed with end-of-week swings. Golden Harbor around 3,63x continues to be a solid anchor. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,661 – 3,663 (intraday resistance) 3,683 – 3,685 (strong OB, likely profit-taking zone) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) 3,602 – 3,605 (FVG zone – deeper support if 3,63x breaks, waiting for strong demand) Market Structure After rebounding from 3,62x, Gold consolidated around 3,65x – 3,66x. Main trend stays bullish, but needs support retest to confirm buyers’ strength. 3,66x is the pivot barrier: • Breakout → targets 3,68x • Rejection → retest 3,64x – 3,62x 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (priority) Entry: 3,602 – 3,605 SL: 3,588 TP: 3,629 – 3,661 – 3,683 ⚡ Sell (short scalp) Entry: 3,683 – 3,685 SL: 3,695 TP: 3,665 – 3,645 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The 3,63x fortress continues to hold, keeping the Golden ship safe on its northward journey. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,602 – 3,605) remains the main dock for sailors to gather strength. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,683 – 3,685) may raise waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . Today is Friday – the sea can shift unexpectedly, so keep the sails full but hands steady on the helm.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
1
XAUUSD – Wave (4) Pullback Could Launch Wave (5)Namaste Traders Gold on the M30 chart remains bullish, but the push into the upper channel line signals short-term profit booking. For those trading Gold/USD or tracking Gold in INR terms on MCX, here’s my plan for the upcoming sessions: 🔍 Technical Overview Price completed Wave (3) around 3697.40, tagging the upper trend channel – a natural zone for sellers to take profits. The 3666–3670 region has acted as a pivot/support multiple times. I expect a Wave (4) correction into this zone before a fresh rally. 3657 is deeper support and also serves as the invalidation level for the bullish scenario. If Wave (4) holds, Wave (5) could push towards 3720–3725. 📈 Key Levels Type Price Level Notes Resistance 3695–3700 Wave (3) top + upper channel edge – watch for rejection Support (1) 3666–3670 Primary buy zone for Wave (4) Support (2) 3657 Strong support & invalidation Target (5) 3720–3725 Expected Wave (5) extension target ⚙️ Trading Plan ✅ Primary Setup – Buy the Dip (Trend Continuation) Entry Zone: 3666–3670 (or a small sweep to ~3657). Confirmation: Look for a bullish engulfing candle, pin bar, or MACD crossover on the M30 chart. Take Profit: TP1: 3695–3700 (previous high/resistance) TP2: 3720–3725 (Wave (5) projection) Stop Loss: Below ~3652. Risk/Reward: Aim for 1:2 to 1:3. ⚠️ Secondary Setup – Countertrend Short If price retests 3695–3700 and forms a strong rejection, a quick countertrend short is possible. Targets: 3670 → 3657. Stop Loss: Above ~3703–3707. Use small position sizing, as this is against the primary trend. 🛡 Risk & Invalidation A close below 3656 plus a break of the lower trend channel invalidates the bullish Wave (5) scenario. For Indian traders watching MCX Gold (in INR), keep in mind USD/INR fluctuations – a weaker rupee can amplify gold gains even if spot prices pause. Always keep risk ≤1–1.5% per trade and avoid chasing late entries. 🧭 Final Thoughts Gold’s trend is still bullish on the short-term chart. A healthy correction into 3666–3670 could offer a prime entry for Wave (5). Be patient, wait for confirmation, and let the price come to your zone. Countertrend shorts are valid only on a clear rejection at 3695–3700 – otherwise, stick with the trend. Good luck and happy trading,
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 16, 2025 Momentum • D1: Momentum is currently in an uptrend, suggesting that price may continue to rise for the next 5–6 days. • H4: Momentum is turning downward, indicating the possibility of a correction today. • H1: Recently showed a bullish reversal signal, but now there are signs of weakening again. This suggests that the downward move on H1 may not yet be complete. Wave Structure • D1: Yesterday’s daily candle created a new high, which indicates that wave iv (black) has likely been completed. The market is now developing in wave v (black). • H4: Wave iv (black) is likely finished. With H4 momentum turning lower, wave 1 of wave v (black) may already be completed, and the market is now entering a corrective phase. • H1: Wave v (black) is unfolding into a 5-wave structure (green). Combined with weakening H4 momentum, there are two possible scenarios: 1. This is wave 4 (green), with a maximum correction level around 3662. 2. This is wave 2 of wave v (black – D1), with a potential correction target around 3657. Since both scenarios point to a similar price zone, we select 3662–3660 as the buy entry zone. Trading Plan • Buy Zone: 3662 – 3660 • SL: 3650 • TP: 3698
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
2
GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by tradergyan01
2