XAUUSD | Gold 4H Breakout Setup | Wait for Retest Before Long Gold is currently trading near the 4H resistance zone after a short-term recovery move. The price is approaching a key supply area where a breakout or rejection can decide the next direction. I am planning a long entry only after a proper retest to avoid chasing the move.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 4045 – 4075
• Strong Support: 3955 – 3980 (200 EMA zone)
• Major Upside Target after breakout: 4210 – 4230
Trade Plan:
1. Let price approach the resistance zone
2. Wait for breakout and then retest near 4045 – 4075
3. Look for bullish rejection candle to confirm entry
4. If retest holds, next leg up toward 4210 is possible
Why Wait for Retest?
Retest reduces false breakout risk and improves risk to reward. Market is still recovering from a previous strong sell-off, so patience gives a more controlled entry.
Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish
Timeframe: 4H
Style: Swing / Position
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice, just my personal price structure view.
Trade ideas
LiamTrading – Gold confirms medium-term uptrendLiamTrading – Gold confirms medium-term uptrend
Gold has officially broken the downward trendline, confirming the transition phase to a medium-term uptrend. After a prolonged accumulation phase, the market is beginning to show clear buying power, and the potential for an extended rally is gradually forming.
Macro – Fundamental Analysis
The latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that central banks continued to increase gold purchases significantly in September, totalling 39 tonnes, the highest level since the beginning of the year.
Most notably, the Central Bank of Brazil – for the first time this year – added 15 tonnes of gold to its national reserves.
Since the beginning of the year, the net purchases by central banks have reached 200 tonnes, clearly reflecting the trend of moving away from the USD amidst global economic and geopolitical instability. This capital flow provides a solid foundation for the medium and long-term uptrend of gold.
Technical Analysis
On the H2 chart, gold prices have broken the downward trendline, signaling a reversal and establishing a new upward structure.
The 3985–3988 zone is acting as dynamic support, potentially serving as a retest point before prices continue to rise.
The POC of the Volume Profile at the 4015–4017 zone is a short-term resistance, where the market may see profit-taking reactions before breaking higher.
The 4046 mark is considered a decisive zone; if surpassed and held, the medium-term uptrend will be strongly reinforced.
Today's Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy in line with the uptrend:
Entry: 3986–3988 (may wait for retest confirmation)
SL: 3980
TP: 4020 – 4045 – 4090
Scenario 2 – Short sell at resistance:
Entry: 4015–4017
SL: 4023
TP: 4002 – 3986
Summary
Gold is giving clear signals of establishing a medium-term uptrend, supported by buying flows from central banks. Traders should prioritise buying positions at strategic support zones and observe price reactions around the POC to confirm the next direction.
Gold Breaks Above $4000, Bulls Take Control for $4100.Dollar Index Meets Resistance at 100.35 near 50 Week EMA
.ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing data improved sentiments.
.Fed signals dovish tilt in monetary policy shift.
.Mid east tensions and global concerns on economic growth support safe haven demand.
.Gold gains strong momentum on breakout above $4000 psychological zone.
What's Going on in Gold?
After historical one sided bullish rally in Gold the technical indicators were extremely overbought with Monthly RSI reading above 92 screaming for a healthy price correction long overdue and the metal price has witnessed almost $500 correction since then, from $4380 down to $3886 which is very close, just $40 away from 50% Fibonacci retracement zone of $3846
The recent few weeks have witnessed dramatic volatility surge and several unseen records like a $300 intraday drop from the record high and wild swings like a giant roller-coaster.
The recent downward spike that dragged Gold prices to $3929 has attracted buyers once again leading to strong breakout above the psychological mark of $4000 reaching $4017 which is lower boundary of immediate resistance bracket $4017-$4028
What's Likely Scenario Ahead for Bulls?
This $4017-$4028 zone is significant as solid demand accumulation above this zone will extend rebound towards next resistance cluster of $4060-$4085 above which $4100 sits as next critical resistance.
If macro factors align together in favour of safe haven demand for Gold with consolidated break above $4100, the probability for bullish rebound extending further would increase with potential upside reaching $4130 followed by $4190 in near term.
Will the Bullish Rally Pause at $4200?
The probability of current rebound extending or pausing is purely subject to price reaction to key price levels aligned with Fibonacci retracements.
As of now considering the strong breakout above $4000 psychological mark and current consolidation above $4010, a strong push above $4018-$4020 will extend move to $4028-$4035-$4045 while next effective resistance areas are $4060 and $4085 with major hurdle $4100 which may act as supply zone.
If the rally has to pause, price action needs to be monitored at $4060 and $4085-$4100 for signs of rejection and momentum exhaustion.
If price resistance shows rejection on the critical areas, a sell off may be witnessed towards $4000-$3975
Short Term Outlook:
The breakout and price consolidation above $4000 is supportive for a short term bullish rebound which initially targets $4030-$4045-$4060 followed by $4085-$4100
Any pullback towards $3975-$3965 is likely to attract buyers on dips.
GOLD RANGE PLAY — CLEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND REACTIONS AHEAD🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN — GOLD (XAU/USD)
Date: Nov 3, 2025
Main Timeframe: M30 – H1
Strategy: SMC + Trendline Structure + Supply/Demand Zones
🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold continues to consolidate inside a symmetrical triangle, forming clear supply and demand zones within a tightening range.
Current structure shows a bearish bias below 4039 but still holding a bullish base above 3970–3980.
Both buyers and sellers have clear liquidity zones to play from — ideal for short-term reactions and fade setups.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
🔹 BUY SCENARIO 1 (Main Setup)
BUY 3980 – 3978
→ SL: 3973 (6 pips)
→ TP1: 4010 | TP2: 4038
Structure support + local BOS. Wait for bullish rejection or engulfing confirmation.
R:R ≈ 5–9 depending on TP target.
🔹 BUY SCENARIO 2 (Aggressive Entry)
BUY 3970 – 3968
→ SL: 3963
→ TP1: 4000 | TP2: 4038
Deep retest into lower trendline + demand imbalance zone.
Only valid if market respects structure and holds above 3960.
🔸 SELL SCENARIO 1
SELL 4027 – 4029
→ SL: 4034
→ TP1: 4000 | TP2: 3970
Short from supply zone with bearish CHoCH confirmation on lower timeframe.
Rejection at this level can target liquidity below 3980.
🔸 SELL SCENARIO 2 (Higher Supply)
SELL 4037 – 4039
→ SL: 4044
→ TP1: 4010 | TP2: 3970
This is the weak high area — potential sweep zone before reversal.
Look for liquidity grab + bearish candle confirmation before entry.
🧩 STRUCTURE RECAP
Bias: Range-bound → Bearish within triangle
BOS / CHoCH: Confirmed on M30 around 4029 zone
Weak High: 4039
Strong Support: 3970–3980
Major Resistance: 4045–4128
⚙️ TRADE MANAGEMENT
Risk per setup ≤ 1–2%
Move SL → BE after TP1
Avoid entries during high-impact news
Wait for confirmation (no blind limits)
🧠 SUMMARY
Gold is ranging within a compressed structure, where shorts from supply and buys from demand both align with liquidity targets.
The cleanest play remains:
→ Buy near 3978 / Sell near 4038, trade between zones until a breakout occurs.
If price breaks and holds above 4045, expect bullish continuation to 4128.
If breaks below 3960, bearish expansion likely resumes toward 3920.
Gold Holds 3,980$ as Bulls Eye Recovery Toward 4,020$🔍 Market Context
Gold steadies near the 3,980$ mark as traders weigh shifting expectations on US interest rates.
The latest ADP employment report showed a modest increase of 42,000 jobs — easing fears of an accelerated slowdown but reinforcing the broader cooling trend in the labor market.
While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have supported bullion throughout the year, the prolonged US government shutdown now clouds macro visibility, delaying key economic data.
Despite mixed sentiment, gold remains one of 2025’s strongest-performing assets, up over 50% year-to-date, driven by ETF inflows and central bank demand.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1–H4)
Gold has staged a notable rebound from the 3,947$–3,969$ demand zone, reclaiming short-term structure and approaching the 3,990$–4,000$ liquidity pocket.
This area aligns with the 0.618 Fib retracement and descending trendline resistance — making it the next decision point for intraday traders.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Support: 3,947$ – 3,969$ (Liquidity Base / Re-accumulation)
• 🎯 Resistance: 3,992$ – 4,024$ (Fibo 0.618 + Trendline Confluence)
• ⚙️ Extended Bull Target: 4,028$ – 4,033$ (1.272–1.618 Fibo Expansion)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → shifts bias toward 3,905$ liquidity pool.
🎯 MMFLOW View
Smart money continues to accumulate within the re-accumulation pocket near 3,950$, hinting at latent bullish intent.
If price holds above 3,970$ after today’s consolidation, an extension toward 4,020$–4,033$ remains highly probable.
However, failure to maintain intraday demand could invite another liquidity sweep before a larger push higher.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“Liquidity reveals intention — structure only confirms it.”
Gold Testing Resistance, Compression Structure Set to Break📊 Market Structure
On the H1 chart, gold is forming a compression structure between the Support 3,944 USD and Resistance 3,989 USD zones.
The recent lows create a series of Higher Lows along the rising trendline – indicating buyers are quietly absorbing supply around the lower region.
However, the 3,989 USD zone remains the central resistance axis , converging with the descending trendline formed from the previous peak (4,028 USD). Each time the price hits this zone, a short-term profit-taking reaction occurs, showing strong defense from sellers.
Below the support zone, the Premium Zone 3,944 USD continues to be the main pivot point – where the price has previously surged strongly in the last two sessions.
If this zone is breached, the short-term bullish structure will be invalidated, opening up the possibility of returning to the Liquidity Zone around 3,921 – 3,892 USD .
Conversely, if the price closes above 3,989 USD , the market will confirm a Bullish Break of Structure (BoS), triggering an extended target towards 4,028 – 4,052 USD .
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Resistance Zone 1: 3,989 USD → main resistance, strong reaction zone.
• Resistance Zone 2: 4,028 – 4,052 USD → upper liquidity target zone.
• Support Zone: 3,944 USD → dynamic support, converging with the rising trendline.
• Liquidity Zone: 3,921 – 3,892 USD → the last zone protecting the bullish structure.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Scenario – Await Confirmed Breakout:
If the price closes above 3,989 USD and successfully retests:
• Entry: 3,985 – 3,995
• SL: 3,965
• TP1: 4,015
• TP2: 4,028
• TP3: 4,052
2️⃣ SELL Scenario – React at Resistance:
If a reversal candlestick pattern appears at 3,989 USD:
• Entry: 3,985 – 3,990
• SL: 4,000
• TP1: 3,965
• TP2: 3,950
• TP3: 3,944
🧠 Vincent’s View
Gold is in a “compression before breakout” phase, with liquidity concentrated around the 3,989 USD zone.
If this zone is broken, the price could quickly surge to the supply area above 4,028 – 4,052 USD.
If it fails, a price rejection here could pull gold back to the rising trendline at 3,950 USD.
“Compression breeds expansion — let price show which side holds conviction.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 06/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical AnalysisGold (XAUUSD)🟡
Timeframe: 1H
Current Price: $3,989
Market Overview:
Gold prices are consolidating near the $3,985–$3,990 zone after recovering from recent lows. The metal maintains bullish momentum supported by strong price action above short-term moving averages, with buyers regaining control amid stable US Dollar movement.
Indicator Analysis:
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The price is currently trading above the 21-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a short-term bullish bias.
As long as Gold holds above the 21-EMA ($3,982), momentum remains favorable for buyers.
2. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
Price is above VWAP, suggesting active buying pressure and potential continuation toward the next resistance zones.
The VWAP band support sits around $3,977, acting as a key intraday cushion.
3. Bollinger/VWAP Bands:
Price is testing the upper VWAP band, showing possible short-term resistance but overall strength in the trend.
Any pullback toward mid-band levels ($3,975–$3,980) could attract new buying interest.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $4,000 / $4,015
Major Resistance: $4,035 / $4,050
Immediate Support: $3,980 / $3,972
Major Support: $3,965 / $3,950
Technical Bias:
Bullish above: $3,980
Neutral zone: $3,970–$3,980
Bearish below: $3,965
Outlook:
Gold remains in a short-term uptrend, with momentum favoring further upside as long as it holds above $3,980. A clean breakout above $4,000 could open room toward $4,015–$4,035. Conversely, a drop below $3,970 would signal weakening momentum, potentially retesting the $3,950 zone.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – November 6, 2025🔹 Momentum
D1 timeframe:
The D1 momentum is now closing in, signaling a possible transition phase with two potential outcomes:
• If today’s D1 candle closes bullish (green): momentum is likely to reverse upward, suggesting a short-term bullish correction.
• If today’s candle closes bearish (red): the downtrend may continue.
The current momentum behavior is unusual, reflecting market indecision between buyers and sellers after a strong decline. As a result, even a small impulse from either side could cause a quick momentum shift.
H4 timeframe:
Momentum on H4 is still in a downward phase but already showing early signs of closing and potential bullish reversal.
• If the current H4 candle closes bearish, the downtrend may extend.
• If it closes bullish and momentum turns upward, price could retest the 4028 zone.
H1 timeframe:
Momentum on H1 is now entering the oversold area, indicating that a reversal could occur within 1–2 more H1 candles.
If momentum turns down again from resistance, this could offer an opportunity for a short-term sell (scalp) around the nearest liquidity zone.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
D1 timeframe:
As discussed in previous plans, the current structure still forms a W–X–Y correction in yellow, representing wave (4) of the larger cycle.
• The W wave has already reached the 0.382 retracement of wave (3) yellow — which often marks the typical end zone of wave 4.
• Therefore, the following X and Y waves may take longer to complete to maintain time balance within wave (4).
Meanwhile, the X wave (purple) remains relatively shallow, having retraced only about 0.236 of wave W (purple). Combined with the still-uncertain momentum discussed above, a potential rise toward the 4149 zone remains a realistic scenario.
However, if today’s D1 candle closes bearish, price could continue lower to complete wave Y (purple).
Given the current structure favors time balance rather than depth, this Y wave may unfold sideways rather than deeply downward.
At this stage, price is compressed within a narrow range, reflecting market hesitation. It’s best to wait for major catalysts such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could trigger the next decisive move.
________________________________________
H4 timeframe:
The current X wave is developing within a narrow range under the form of a contracting triangle (a–b–c–d–e).
A triangle can only be confirmed once all five internal legs are completed.
Once that happens, a breakout above or below the triangle boundaries will define the next direction.
👉 For now, observation should be prioritized over action.
________________________________________
H1 timeframe:
Wave labeling on H1 is somewhat noisy due to overlapping three-wave structures within a tightening range.
Tentatively, the labeling shows a W–X–Y correction in green, where wave X appears to be a triangle formation.
A final small drop forming wave e could complete this triangle (wave X in green). Once it’s done, a new Y wave in green may start unfolding upward.
________________________________________
🔹 Summary
At present, the market remains noisy and compressed, making it unsuitable for swing entries.
• Avoid swing positions until the structure and momentum become clearer.
• Focus only on short-term scalp setups around key liquidity zones identified earlier.
• Wait for confirmation of direction and structure before committing to larger trades.
XAUUSD – INTRADAY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050💛 XAUUSD – INTRADAY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone 💬
Although the larger timeframe for gold still leans towards a bearish trend, today in the short term, I prioritise a bullish scenario.
On the M30 timeframe, the price structure is gradually increasing, indicating that short-term capital is shifting to the buying side.
Zone 3990 is a very important area – where a Break of Structure (BOS) has just appeared and is also a strong resistance that has reacted multiple times before.
Price needs to confirm breaking this zone to continue expanding the bullish trend.
💹 2. Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective)
📈 An ascending structure (BOS) has formed on M30.
🟣 Buy Zone 3977–3979 coincides with the support trendline – a beautiful confluence point for buyers.
🔹 Resistance zone 3990–4000 is the area to confirm the main direction.
💫 Higher target: Fibonacci Extension 1.618 around 4049–4050, coinciding with the psychological resistance 4050.
🎯 3. Trading Plan Reference
💖 MAIN BUY (priority)
Entry: 3977–3979 | SL: 3970
TP: 3988 – 4000 – 4022 – 4040 – 4050
💢 SHORT SELL (when price reacts strongly at resistance)
Entry: 4012–4014 | SL: 4020
TP: 4002 – 3988 – 3965
⚠️ 4. Important Notes
Price needs to confirm through zone 3990 to reinforce the bullish trend.
If it breaks below 3970, the ascending structure is temporarily invalidated.
Today, prioritise buying according to the capital flow, sell only when there is a clear signal at the resistance zone.
🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold is showing positive signals 💛
Patiently wait for reactions at the Buy Zone 3977–3979, this could be the starting point for a new upward move towards 4050.
This is not investment advice, just a personal perspective according to the ICT method.
If you find it useful, please 💛 like – 💬 comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 to update gold analysis with me every day ✨
XAUUSD – Intraday H1 Plan Range-Bound Volatility(November 5, 2025)
🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold is trading within a narrow range around ₹3,963 – ₹4,015, showing indecision between safe-haven demand and short-term profit-taking pressure.
After the previous New York session, price created a new local low near ₹3,962.92, then quickly rebounded as dip buyers stepped in.
However, the ₹4,015–₹4,020 zone remains a strong supply area, limiting further upside momentum.
Bias for today: Ranging with mild bullish potential
→ Prefer buying at lower supports and taking profits quickly near the ₹4,015–₹4,020 supply zone.
If price breaks below ₹3,962, deeper downside movement toward ₹3,945 may occur.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + LIQUIDITY STRUCTURE)
Market Structure: On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD is consolidating between the strong demand zone ₹3,962–₹3,965 and the supply zone ₹4,015–₹4,020, forming a clear sideways range.
Liquidity Map:
Below ₹3,962 lies heavy sell-side liquidity, which Smart Money may sweep before a reversal.
Above ₹4,015–₹4,020 sits buy-side liquidity, serving as the next liquidity target if a breakout occurs.
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES
Zone Type Price Range Description
Supply Zone ₹4,015 – ₹4,020 Short-term supply zone, likely to trigger sell reactions
Order Block ₹4,010 – ₹4,008 Quick reaction zone during London session
FVG zone ₹3,956-₹3,960 as a retest reaction area to look for confirmed Buy setups if the higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, or Sell on retest if price breaks below this zone
Deep Demand - OB ₹3,935 – ₹3,940 Deep buy zone, for liquidity sweep setups
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS
✅ BUY SCENARIO 2 – OB Reaction Entry
Entry: ₹3,935 – ₹3,934
Stoploss: ₹3,928
TP1: ₹3,970
TP2: ₹4,000
Logic: Price may sweep liquidity below the FVG and mitigate the H1 Bullish Order Block (₹3,935–₹3,944); if CHoCH/BOS confirms reversal, enter buy targeting the previous imbalance and liquidity above ₹4,000.
✅ BUY SCENARIO 2 – FVG Rebalance Entry
Entry: ₹3,955 – ₹3,954
Stoploss: ₹3,948
TP1: ₹3,985
TP2: ₹4,015
Logic: Price retraces to fill the ₹3,955–₹3,954 H1 FVG within the discount zone; if bullish CHoCH/BOS confirms a reversal, execute buy entry targeting liquidity above recent highs.
🔻 SELL SCENARIO – From Short-Term Supply Zone
Entry: ₹4,011 – ₹4,009
Stoploss: ₹4,017
TP1: ₹3,990.000
TP2: ₹3,965.000
Logic: Price reaches supply zone, forms rejection or bearish engulfing → valid short setup within range.
⚠️ SCALPING SELL – Quick Reversal Opportunity
Entry: ₹4,020 – ₹4,022
Stoploss: ₹4,028
TP: ₹4,000.000 – ₹3,985
Logic: If price spikes to ₹4,020–₹4,022 sweeping buy-side liquidity and quickly rejects → short scalp opportunity.
🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN
Focus on London and New York sessions when liquidity is highest.
Wait for H1 candle confirmation (wick, retest, or CHoCH) before entering any trade.
Avoid trading just because price touches the zone — confirmation is key.
Risk management: limit exposure to ≤1% per trade; maintain at least a 1:2 RR ratio.
When price approaches entry zones, use M15 timeframe to confirm structure and momentum before executing.
🏁 CONCLUSION
Within the ₹3,962.92 – ₹4,015.04 range, XAUUSD is consolidating tightly.
→ Prefer buying near ₹3,965–₹3,963 upon confirmation, or deep buys at ₹3,958–₹3,956 after liquidity sweep.
→ Conversely, if price rallies to ₹4,015–₹4,020 and shows rejection signals, short opportunities may arise.
Trade according to structure, wait for confirmations, and manage risk strictly to avoid stop-hunts.
Gold Trading Strategy for 06th November 2025💹 Trading Plan for Today
🕐 Time Frame: 1 Hour Candle
📈 Buy Setup (Long Trade)
💵 Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle once it closes above $4004
🎯 Targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: $4015
2️⃣ Target 2: $4027
3️⃣ Target 3: $4040
🛑 Stop Loss: Place your stop loss below the previous candle’s low for safety.
💡 Tip for Beginners: Wait for the candle to close above $4004 before entering. Don’t jump in early — confirmation matters!
📉 Sell Setup (Short Trade)
💵 Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle once it closes below $3942
🎯 Targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: $3929
2️⃣ Target 2: $3917
3️⃣ Target 3: $3904
🛑 Stop Loss: Place your stop loss above the previous candle’s high for protection.
💡 Tip for Beginners: Only enter after a confirmed close below $3942 — patience helps avoid false signals.
⚠️ Disclaimer
📢 This setup is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Always do your own analysis and use proper risk management before entering any trade. The author is not responsible for any profit or loss incurred based on this information.
Gold Trading Strategy | November 5–6✅ On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has gradually entered a weak consolidation and corrective phase after the previous decline. The current candlesticks are fluctuating near the Bollinger middle band (around 3984).
🔸 The MA5 and MA10 are flattening and slightly pointing downwards, indicating limited short-term bullish momentum. MA20 is suppressing the price, reflecting clear upside pressure. The moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, suggesting strong overhead resistance. This implies that the medium-term structure is still weak, and the current rebound is corrective in nature.
🔸 The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, with the middle band (3984) acting as a key resistance zone, while the upper band (4037) provides significant pressure. Lower highs in the candlestick structure indicate a weak rebound with pullback confirmations.
✅ On the 1-hour timeframe, gold is forming a continuous staircase-style rebound, showing obvious short-term bullish rhythm.
🔸 The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are aligned in a bullish formation, with the candlesticks consistently trading above the MA5, and the MA20 providing solid support from below. This reflects short-term strength. If the price breaks above the 3990–3995 resistance zone, it may open further upside potential.
🔴 Resistance levels: 3988–3990 / 3995–4000 / 4030
🟢 Support levels: 3975–3978 / 3963–3965 / 3930
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Rebound Short Setup
If gold rebounds to 3990–3995 and faces rejection,
→ Consider light short positions,
🎯 Targets: 3978 / 3975
⛔ SL above 4002
🔰 Pullback Long Setup
If gold pulls back toward 3975–3978 and stabilizes,
→ Consider light-lot long positions,
🎯 Targets:3988–3990
⛔ SL below 3968
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
XAU/USD – Gold Forms New Liquidity Low, Buyers Return🔍 Market Context
Gold has completed a significant liquidity sweep around the 3,929 – 3,921 USD zone, clearing out the stop-losses of weak buyers before bouncing back strongly.
The bullish candle reaction at this zone indicates strong absorption from large capital flows, opening the possibility of forming a technical recovery wave towards the supply zone (OB – FVG) above.
In the short term, the market structure temporarily shifts to a bullish bias , as long as the price holds above this Liquidity Zone.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Liquidity Sweep Zone: 3,929 – 3,921 USD → newly swept liquidity low, acting as main support.
• FVG 1: 3,951 – 3,959 USD → first target of the recovery wave.
• FVG 2: 3,977 – 3,985 USD → unfilled price balance zone.
• Order Block: 3,995 – 4,022 USD → strong supply resistance, expected reaction upon retest.
• Resistance Zone: 4,025 – 4,045 USD → watch for candle reactions to confirm upward momentum or reversal.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Liquidity Sweep Retest
• Entry: 3,932 – 3,922 USD (pullback to sweep zone)
• Stop Loss: below 3,912 USD
• Take Profit:
TP1: 3,965
TP2: 3,975
TP3: 3,987
TP4: 3,995
TP5: 4,022
➡️ “Buy the discount” strategy by Smart Money: buy after liquidity sweep to catch the technical rebound.
2️⃣ SELL Reaction – OB 4,022 USD
If the price approaches the OB 3,995 – 4,022 USD zone and shows reversal signals (strong rejection, bearish engulfing candle),
→ consider opening a short-term sell (counter-trend scalp)
• Entry: 4,015 – 4,020
• SL: 4,030
• TP: 3,990 → 3,970 → 3,940
⚙️ Market Structure
• Temporary uptrend line remains intact.
• Liquidity has been swept at the old low → confirming bullish ChoCH .
• Confluence structure of FVG + OB + trendline creates favorable conditions for recovery momentum.
📈 Summary
Gold has completed the old low liquidity sweep and is in a technical recovery phase.
As long as the price stays above 3,921 USD, the short-term trend leans towards bullish retracement .
Observe price reactions at the FVG 3,975 – 3,995 USD zone to determine buyer strength.
🔥 “Liquidity fuels direction — once the weak hands are out, the real move begins.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 05/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Gold Outlook: Bears Stay in ControlGold continues to operate within a bearish market environment characterized by persistent liquidation and declining momentum. The recent structural shift reflects an ongoing reallocation of capital away from defensive metals toward higher-yield instruments, signaling a broader change in market positioning.
Trading activity indicates that each upward movement is being met with renewed selling interest, suggesting limited participation from institutional buyers. This behavior aligns with the prevailing sentiment of caution, as investors prioritize stability over speculative exposure.
The broader outlook remains subdued, with market conditions favoring continued downside until clearer evidence of renewed demand emerges. Gold’s performance reflects a phase of market adjustment, where declining liquidity and moderate volatility reinforce the persistence of bearish sentiment across the short-term horizon.
Gold (XAU/USD): Potential bullish scenarioHey traders 👋
Wishing you a successful trade and a clear mindset today 💫
Gold (XAU/USD): Potential bullish scenario
After a deep correction, gold is showing signs of recovery above the 3980 area. A short-term accumulation zone is forming, which could serve as a base for further upward movement.
The first target is 4050 (TP1) — a breakout of this level may open the way toward 4140 (TP2), where a stronger resistance zone awaits.
However, a confirmed break below 3919 would invalidate this bullish scenario and signal renewed bearish pressure.
📈 TP1: 4050
📈 TP2: 4140
🛑 Invalidation: below 3919
Stay patient and disciplined — consistency always pays off.
Have a successful trade, traders 🌿
— Ivanna Trader
GOLD – AWAITING CONFIRMATION AFTER TRIANGLE BREAK🌸 GOLD – AWAITING CONFIRMATION AFTER TRIANGLE BREAK, BUY OPPORTUNITY AT FVG ZONE 🌸
💬 “The market always instills fear just before it makes its strongest surge.” – that's what Kristina wants to remind us today 💖
After the recent decline, gold has broken down from the triangle pattern on the H1 frame, leading many traders to start placing sell orders following the trendline. However, Kristina still hasn't seen a confirmation signal for a long-term downtrend – instead, the market is retesting strong liquidity zones, which could create a short-term rebound point.
📊 Technical Analysis:
The FVG zone around 3956–3958 is currently acting as a potential buying area, where the price may react to form a recovery.
Place a safe stop loss below the 3950 zone, with a further target towards 4100, where the Liquidity Strong cluster is concentrated according to the H4 frame.
Conversely, if the price breaks below 3930, only then can a long-term downtrend be confirmed, and Kristina will look for a sell setup in the direction of retesting the breakout zone, with a target of 3855.
🎯 Today's Trading Scenario:
Buy around 3956–3958, SL 3950, TP 4100.
If the price breaks 3930, wait to Sell when the price retests, TP 3855.
💡 Currently, the gold market is in a “hesitant” phase between two directions. Let the price action become clearer before deciding on a position. Sometimes, patience is the best position a trader can hold. 💪
🌷 The analysis reflects Kristina's personal perspective, not an investment recommendation.
If you share the same view, feel free to leave a comment below 💬✨
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (Nov 05, 2025)
🔹 Momentum
D1 timeframe:
Daily momentum has reversed to the downside, suggesting that the dominant trend for the next 4–5 days is likely to be bearish.
H4 timeframe:
H4 momentum is currently turning upward, indicating a potential short-term bullish correction lasting 4–5 H4 candles.
However, since price action is within a corrective wave, short-term momentum signals can be noisy. Still, this minor rally can provide valuable observation opportunities.
H1 timeframe:
H1 momentum is now in the overbought zone and about to turn down.
I usually take entries when H1 and H4 momentum align, but right now they are out of phase, so the best move is to wait and observe.
The 3891 level will be a key area to monitor in the short term.
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🔹 Wave Structure
D1 timeframe:
The corrective wave X (purple) within wave (4) (yellow) appears to be forming or nearing completion.
The downside reversal on D1 suggests that wave X might have already ended, and price could now be starting wave Y downward.
A break below 3892 would confirm that wave X is complete.
However, note that this X-wave retracement is quite shallow (around 0.283 of the previous W-wave), which reduces the reliability of the momentum signal — meaning we must stay cautious and monitor closely.
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H4 timeframe:
On H4, the structure of wave X (purple) shows signs of a contracting triangle, anchored around the 4028 resistance zone with higher lows.
In this scenario, an a–b–c correction is expected, where wave b forms the triangle, and wave c could rise toward 4050–4149 to complete the X-wave.
However, the strong drop yesterday is weakening this scenario, though not invalidated yet.
→ The bullish scenario would be fully invalidated if price breaks below 3892.
Thus, we must monitor two possible cases:
1. Case 1:
Wave X is still in progress – supported by the current H4 momentum upswing.
If price breaks above 4028 when H4 momentum reaches overbought, it will strengthen this view.
2. Case 2:
Wave X has already completed as a triangle (abcde) shown on H1.
In this case, the ongoing H4 rally is just a corrective bounce, and once H4 momentum enters overbought and price fails to close above 4028, a new bearish leg is likely to start.
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H1 timeframe:
The corrective X-wave (purple) seems to have completed as a triangle (abcde, black).
That means the market is now likely in wave Y (purple) on D1, where the main trend is bearish, and any upmove is only corrective.
Hence, the 3981 liquidity zone above is considered a high-probability sell area.
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🔹 Trading Plan
• Sell Zone: 3981 – 3983
• Stop Loss: 4002
• Take Profit 1: 3892
• Take Profit 2: 3814
⚠️ Note:
Current volatility is extremely high — each H1 candle covers more than 200 pips.
Therefore, the stop loss range is wide.
👉 To manage risk effectively:
• Either avoid trading during this phase, or
• Reduce position size to keep account safety intact.
Gold daily analysisintermediate 5 th wave completed rounded black numbers.Primary 3 wave also completed and now 4 th wave pull back is going on.it has not retraced 23.6 percent as of now.this rounded 3 rd wave red colour is extended one.primary 2 nd wave had retraced 50 percent of 1 st wave. we are waiting for completeion of the red colour 4 th wave .When 3 rd wave is extended it can jump after retracing even 23.6 percent. not sure of it.how it unflods.Daily chart.
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