Gold Trading Strategy for 23rd Sember 2025GOLD TRADING STRATEGY
🟢 Buy — Enter only when a 15-minute candle closes above 3765; buy a tick/point above that candle’s high. Targets: 3775, 3785, 3800.
🔴 Sell — Enter only when a 1-hour candle closes below 3728; sell a tick/point below that candle’s low. Targets: 3715, 3703, 3685.
BUY SETUP — 15-minute candle (very detailed)
🔎 Condition to enter
Wait for a 15-minute candle to close above 3765.
Only after the candle closes above 3765 do you prepare to buy.
🧭 Entry execution
Identify the high of that confirmed 15-min candle (call it C_high).
Place a Buy-Stop order a small tick above the candle high (e.g., Entry = C_high + 1 tick), so your order triggers only if price continues up.
🛡 Stop-loss (SL)
Place SL just below the low of the same candle (call it C_low - 1 tick).
This is a clean, candle-based SL — simple for beginners to manage.
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 3775
Target 2: 3785
Target 3: 3800
SELL SETUP — 1-hour candle (very detailed)
🔎 Condition to enter
Wait for a 1-hour candle to close below 3728.
Only after the hourly candle closes below 3728 do you prepare to sell.
🧭 Entry execution
Identify the low of that confirmed 1-hour candle (H_low).
Place a Sell-Stop order a small tick below H_low (e.g., Entry = H_low − 1 tick).
🛡 Stop-loss (SL)
Place SL just above the high of the same 1-hour candle (H_high + 1 tick).
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 3715
Target 2: 3703
Target 3: 3685
⚠️ Disclaimer (READ CAREFULLY)
📢 This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading gold or any financial instrument involves substantial risk — you can lose more than your initial capital. Use proper risk management (e.g., limit risk per trade to 1–2% of your account). Always verify instrument point/contract value with your broker and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
XAUUSD-UPCOMING PROBALBE DIRECTIONAL ANALYSIS1. We can see a retracement in XAUUSD upto retesting area.
2. Also the move take more time as compaired to previous uptrend, means we can't see clear downtrend here.
3. The lines marked at chart are the characters of the trend, means we can see a bit candle which cross the line.
4. The characters are:
1.Minor character-3692.290
2. Major Characters-3547.005, 3581.210,3546.050 & 3478.350.
XAUUSD – Strategic Selling Zone and Detailed Trading ScenarioTechnical Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is experiencing a strong upward trend and has now reached the Fibonacci extension zone of 1.618 – 2.618, a region often associated with profit-taking and short-term distribution.
Sell Zone Fibo 2.618 (3,730–3,735): The first potential supply area, if a bearish confirmation candle appears on H1/H4, a corrective phase is likely to commence.
Sell Zone Swing (3,745–3,750): A strong supply zone confluencing with multiple Fibonacci extensions, posing a higher reversal risk.
Short-term Buy Zone (3,690–3,700): An intermediate support area after breaking the previous peak, suitable for short-term buy orders if the price retests and confirms.
Buy Swing (3,645–3,650): The main support zone, confluencing with EMA200 H1 and an old trendline, considered a 'safe buying point' if a deep correction occurs.
The RSI (14) is currently at 77, indicating that the price has entered the overbought territory. Historically, whenever the RSI exceeds 75, a significant correction follows. This serves as a warning signal for traders to consider gradually taking profits on short-term Buy positions and preparing for Sell or Buy scenarios at lower price levels.
Trading Scenario
Scenario 1 – Sell at Supply Zone:
Entry: 3,732–3,735 (Fibo 2.618) or extend to 3,745–3,750 (Sell Zone Swing)
SL: above 3,740
TP1: 3,707
TP2: 3,690–3,700 (Buy Zone)
TP3: 3,661
TP4: 3,645
Scenario 2 – Short-term Buy (regression scalping):
Entry: 3,670–3,700 (after H1 confirmation candle)
SL: below 3,690
TP1: 3,718
TP2: 3,730
Scenario 3 – Long-term Buy Swing:
Entry: 3,645–3,648 (EMA200 + main support zone)
SL: below 3,640
TP1: 3,690
TP2: 3,707
TP3: 3,730
Price Levels to Watch
3,730–3,750: The strongest current supply zone, suitable for a Sell scenario based on Fibonacci extensions.
3,690–3,700: Short-term Buy Zone, a crucial retest area to confirm the trend.
3,661: An intermediate level, if breached, could lead to a decline towards EMA200.
3,645: Potential Buy Swing, the main support of the upward structure.
Overall Assessment
The main trend on H1 remains upward; however, the current price level has entered the overbought zone, indicating a likely correction towards support before continuing the trend.
The most suitable strategy at this time: Monitor for short-term Sell opportunities at the supply zone – take profits at the support zone, then wait for Buy Swing at lower levels to follow the main trend.
Gold Consolidating Near All-Time HighLast week Gold made a new all-time high around the 3707 level, and we have seen minor pullback after this high, leading to a pullback towards the 3620 -30 area. From there, the price bounced back strongly and is now trading close to the 3700 mark again. Currently, the market seems to be consolidating in a range between 3620 and 3700-07. The overall trend still looks bullish, but for the next clear direction, we need a strong higher time frame close either above 3700 for further upside or below 3600 for possible deeper correction.
Immediate resistance 3700-07
Weekly R1 3719
Weekly R2 3754
Pivot 3672 (As immediate support)
Weekly S1 3628
Gold Market Analysis: September 20, 2025Gold (XAU/USD) continues its remarkable bullish run in 2025, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, a weakening US dollar, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of today, the spot price stands at approximately $3,685 per ounce, marking a 1.06% increase from the previous day and a staggering 40.47% year-over-year gain. This follows a 26% rise in the first half of the year and nearly 41% year-to-date, with the metal recently touching an all-time high near $3,707 earlier this month. The market remains in a structural uptrend, though short-term volatility—exacerbated by the recent FOMC meeting—has led to some profit-taking and consolidation.
Technical Analysis
Gold's chart on the daily and H1 timeframes shows a bullish bias, with the price trading above key moving averages (50-day MA at $3,520 and 200-day MA at $3,200). The recent pullback from $3,707 appears corrective, testing demand zones around $3,638-$3,644 where buyers stepped in aggressively.Key Support Levels:Immediate: $3,644–$3,638 (recent demand zone; strong buying interest here).
Long term Support and resistance
Support : $3,525–$3,580
Key Resistance Levels: $3,900 - $4,000
Trend Bullish
~~ Disclaimer ~~
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational \ educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
# Boost and comment will be highly appreciated.
A bullish outlookWaves 1, 2, and 3: The chart shows a completed impulse sequence with a long and strong Wave 3, which followed a Bull Flag continuation pattern.
Wave 4 Correction: Gold is currently believed to be in a corrective Wave 4. This correction is taking the shape of an Ascending Broadening Wedge, a pattern characterized by two upward-slanting, diverging trendlines.
Support: A key support level is marked at approximately $3,324.790, which served as the base for the recent major rally.
Price Target: The red arrow indicates an expected rally towards the region between the 2.414 ($3,818.931) and 3.0 ($3,865.262) Fibonacci levels.
Gold is poised for another significant rally to new highs, potentially reaching the $3,820 - $3,865 price range.
GOLD – Breakout / Swept High – Where to BUY?1. Market Overview
Gold prices are consolidating around 3655 – 3660 after showing a short-term bearish structure.
On the H1 chart, we can see clear supply and demand zones:
• Liquidity Buy Zone near 3640 (potential demand area).
• Imbalance / Supply Zone around 3670 – 3680.
The broader higher-timeframe trend is still bullish, but in the near term the market is retesting liquidity levels.
________________________________________
2. Key Levels & Zones
• Liquidity Buy Zone: 3640 – 3645 → important support.
• Sell Scalp Zone / Imbalance: 3670 – 3680 → short-term resistance.
• Higher High Target (HH): 3700 – 3710 → strong higher-timeframe resistance.
• Long-term Support: 3620 – 3630.
________________________________________
3. Main Trading Scenarios
🟢 Long Setup (with trend)
• Wait for price to revisit the Liquidity Buy Zone (3640 – 3645).
• If bullish reversal signals appear (pin bar, engulfing candle, etc.), consider entering a Long position.
🎯 Targets:
• Short-term: 3678 (trendline break retest).
• Mid-term: 3700 – 3710 (higher high).
🔴 Short Setup (scalp only)
• If price pushes into the Sell Scalp Zone (3670 – 3680) and faces strong rejection → take a Short scalp.
• 🎯 Target: 3640 – 3645.
⚠ Note: Shorts go against the main bullish trend, so they should be managed quickly and not held for long.
________________________________________
4. Trade Management Notes
• Focus on Long trades near support, as higher timeframe bias is still bullish.
• Short positions should only be taken as scalp setups near resistance.
• Risk control: limit risk to 1–2% per trade, avoid holding trades against the main trend.
________________________________________
📌 Conclusion
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently testing the descending trendline and resistance zone.
• A successful breakout may lead price towards 3700+.
• Otherwise, the market is likely to dip back into 3640 before starting the next bullish leg.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Major Levels, Market Structure, and 🔎 Current Snapshot
Price now: ~$3,684.98 per ounce.
Investing.com
Today’s trading range: ~$3,632.28 → $3,686.33.
Investing.com
Technical indicators (on sites like Investing.com) are showing a Strong Buy bias. Many moving averages & oscillators are in bullish territory.
⚙ Updated Key Levels (Support & Resistance)
Here are revised zones to watch, given the current price:
Immediate Resistance - $3700 Psychological round level; has been acting as near-term ceiling.
Immediate Support - $3,650 – $3,670 Zone of recent higher lows; a break below this could see more downside.
Stronger support - $3,600
Major Support Below - $3,500 – $3,550 A deeper correction zone; important in case of more aggressive downward moves.
🔄 Market Structure
Gold is in an uptrend, but there are signs of short-term weakening:
Some indicators are showing overbought conditions.
Price is consolidating just below resistance at ~$3,700 – so momentum is there, but pushing higher might require a catalyst.
On the downside, the structure holds so far — previous swings are supporting, but if support zones (like $3,650) fail, that could shift to a correction mode.
📝 Conclusion
XAU/USD is consolidating within a crucial range, balancing supply and demand forces. The dual-trendline structure signals a potential breakout in the coming sessions. Short-term traders can leverage the 5M CHoCH for early entries, while swing traders should focus on the interplay between the higher timeframe zones and trendlines.
📌 Reminder: Always wait for confirmation before entering trades and manage risk according to your trading plan.
🔔 Follow for updates! Let me know if you have any questions or want to discuss your own analysis. Happy trading! 🚀✨
PCR Trading Strategies1. Strategic Approaches to Options Trading
Options strategies can be simple or complex, depending on the trader’s risk tolerance, market outlook, and capital. These strategies are categorized into basic, intermediate, and advanced levels.
1.1. Basic Strategies
Buying Calls and Puts: Simple directional trades.
Protective Puts: Hedging against portfolio declines.
Covered Calls: Generating income from existing holdings.
1.2. Intermediate Strategies
Spreads: Simultaneous buying and selling of options to limit risk and reward.
Vertical Spread: Buying and selling options of the same type with different strike prices.
Horizontal/Calendar Spread: Exploiting differences in time decay by using options of the same strike but different expiration dates.
Diagonal Spread: Combining vertical and horizontal spreads for strategic positioning.
Collars: Combining protective puts and covered calls to limit both upside and downside.
1.3. Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor: Selling an out-of-the-money call and put while buying further OTM options to limit risk, profiting from low volatility.
Butterfly Spread: Exploiting low volatility by using three strike prices to maximize gains near the middle strike.
Ratio Spreads and Backspreads: Advanced plays to profit from skewed market expectations or strong directional moves.
2. Identifying Option Trading Opportunities
Successful options trading requires analyzing market conditions, volatility, and liquidity. Key factors include:
2.1. Market Direction and Momentum
Use technical indicators (moving averages, RSI, MACD) to gauge trends.
Trade options in alignment with market momentum for directional strategies.
2.2. Volatility Analysis
Historical Volatility (HV): Measures past price fluctuations.
Implied Volatility (IV): Market’s expectation of future volatility.
Opportunities arise when IV is underpriced (buy options) or overpriced (sell options).
2.3. Earnings and Event Plays
Companies’ earnings announcements, product launches, or macroeconomic events create volatility spikes.
Strategies like straddles or strangles are ideal to capitalize on such events.
2.4. Liquidity and Open Interest
Highly liquid options ensure tight spreads and efficient entry/exit.
Monitoring open interest helps identify support/resistance levels and market sentiment.
3. Risk Management in Options Trading
While options offer significant opportunities, risk management is crucial:
Position Sizing: Limit exposure to a small percentage of capital.
Defined-Risk Strategies: Use spreads and collars to control maximum loss.
Stop-Loss Orders: Protect against rapid adverse movements.
Diversification: Trade multiple assets or strategies to reduce concentration risk.
Implied Volatility Awareness: Avoid buying expensive options during volatility spikes unless justified by market events.
Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global MarketsIntroduction
Geopolitical risks encompass a broad spectrum of political, economic, and military events that can disrupt the global economic landscape. These risks, ranging from armed conflicts and trade wars to policy shifts and regime changes, have profound implications for financial markets, investment strategies, and economic stability. Understanding the nature of these risks and their potential impacts is crucial for investors, policymakers, and businesses operating in an increasingly interconnected world.
1. Nature and Sources of Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical risks arise from various sources, each with unique characteristics and potential consequences:
Armed Conflicts and Wars: Military engagements, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, can lead to significant disruptions in global supply chains, especially in energy and commodities markets. For instance, attacks on critical infrastructure can cause immediate price spikes and long-term supply shortages.
Trade Wars and Sanctions: Economic measures like tariffs, export controls, and sanctions can alter trade flows and affect the profitability of multinational corporations. The U.S.-China trade tensions are a prime example, influencing global supply chains and market sentiments.
Political Instability and Regime Changes: Shifts in political power, especially in key economies, can lead to policy uncertainties that affect investor confidence and market stability. Changes in leadership can result in abrupt policy shifts, impacting sectors such as energy, finance, and technology.
Cybersecurity Threats: Increasing reliance on digital infrastructure makes economies vulnerable to cyberattacks, which can disrupt financial systems, trade, and national security.
Environmental and Resource Conflicts: Competition for scarce resources, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions dependent on natural resources.
2. Mechanisms of Market Impact
Geopolitical events influence markets through several channels:
Market Volatility: Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events can lead to increased volatility in stock and bond markets. Investors often react swiftly to news, leading to sharp price movements.
Commodity Price Fluctuations: Conflicts in resource-rich regions can disrupt supply chains, leading to price increases in commodities like oil, gas, and metals. For example, tensions in the Middle East often result in spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions.
Currency Instability: Geopolitical risks can affect investor confidence in a country's currency, leading to depreciation or volatility. Countries directly involved in conflicts may see their currencies weaken due to capital outflows.
Capital Flows and Investment Patterns: Heightened risks can lead to shifts in investment strategies, with investors seeking safe-haven assets like gold, government bonds, or stable currencies. Emerging markets may experience capital outflows as investors seek safer investments.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Conflicts and trade restrictions can interrupt the flow of goods and services, leading to shortages and increased costs for businesses and consumers.
3. Case Studies of Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 led to significant disruptions in global energy markets. Sanctions imposed on Russia resulted in soaring oil and gas prices, affecting global inflation rates and energy security.
U.S.-China Trade War: The imposition of tariffs between the U.S. and China in 2018-2019 disrupted global supply chains, affecting industries from electronics to agriculture. Markets experienced heightened volatility as investors adjusted to the changing trade landscape.
Brexit: The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union introduced uncertainties regarding trade agreements, regulatory standards, and economic relations, leading to fluctuations in the British pound and stock market volatility.
Middle East Tensions: Periodic conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have led to spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions, impacting global markets.
4. Quantifying Geopolitical Risk
Measuring geopolitical risk is challenging due to its multifaceted nature. However, several indices and models have been developed to assess and quantify these risks:
Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR): Developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), this index quantifies geopolitical tensions based on news coverage and policy uncertainty. It provides a historical perspective on the frequency and intensity of geopolitical events.
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI): This indicator tracks market attention to geopolitical risks by analyzing brokerage reports and financial news stories. It helps investors gauge the level of concern in the market regarding specific geopolitical events.
Market-Driven Scenarios (MDS): Employed by institutions like BlackRock, MDS frameworks estimate the potential impact of geopolitical events on global assets by analyzing historical parallels and expert insights.
5. Investor Strategies in the Face of Geopolitical Risks
Investors can adopt several strategies to mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks:
Diversification: Spreading investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographies can reduce exposure to specific geopolitical events.
Hedging: Utilizing financial instruments like options, futures, and currency swaps can help protect portfolios from adverse market movements.
Focus on Fundamentals: Investing in companies with strong fundamentals, such as robust balance sheets and resilient business models, can provide stability during turbulent times.
Monitoring Geopolitical Developments: Staying informed about global events and understanding their potential implications can help investors make timely and informed decisions.
Scenario Planning: Developing and regularly updating risk scenarios can prepare investors for potential geopolitical shocks and guide strategic responses.
6. Implications for Policymakers and Businesses
Policymakers and businesses must recognize the significance of geopolitical risks and take proactive measures:
Policy Formulation: Governments should develop policies that enhance economic resilience, promote diversification, and reduce dependence on volatile regions.
Crisis Management Plans: Establishing frameworks to respond to geopolitical crises can help mitigate their impact on national security and economic stability.
Public-Private Collaboration: Cooperation between governments and businesses can lead to more effective risk management strategies and resource allocation during crises.
Investment in Technology and Infrastructure: Strengthening digital infrastructure and cybersecurity can reduce vulnerabilities to cyber threats and enhance economic resilience.
Conclusion
Geopolitical risks are an inherent aspect of the global economic landscape, with the potential to influence markets, investment strategies, and economic policies. While these risks cannot be entirely eliminated, understanding their sources, mechanisms, and potential impacts allows investors, businesses, and policymakers to develop strategies to mitigate their effects. By adopting proactive risk management approaches and staying informed about global developments, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of geopolitical risks and maintain stability in an interconnected world.
XAUUSD – The Decisive Zone and Trading ScenariosTechnical Analysis
Gold prices on the H4 chart are in a recovery phase after retesting the support at 3,661–3,662. The latest candle has rebounded strongly to the 3,684 zone, yet the structure still indicates a clear tug-of-war.
The upward trendline was breached in the previous decline, and currently, the price is retracing to test this area again. This is a crucial point to determine whether the short-term uptrend will continue.
The Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed around the 3,613–3,626 zone, along with the Fibonacci extension, becomes a point of interest for deeper pullbacks.
The Volume Profile indicates the main Point of Control (POC) lies lower, around 3,551, a potential target for gold to revisit if selling pressure increases.
The RSI (14) is at ~59, leaning towards the buyers but hasn't crossed into the overbought territory → the current momentum is more of a recovery rather than a sustainable uptrend.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy following the short-term trend:
Entry: wait for a retest at 3,673–3,662
SL: below 3,655
TP1: 3,690–3,700
TP2: 3,708–3,715 (2.0–2.618 Fib extension)
Scenario 2 – Short sell after confirmed failure:
If the price fails to hold above 3,661 and there is a reversal signal on H4, consider selling.
Entry: 3,661–3,650 (after confirmation candle)
SL: above 3,673
TP1: 3,626–3,613 (FVG + support)
TP2: 3,579
TP3: 3,551 (POC Volume Profile)
Key Price Levels to Watch
3,708–3,715: extended resistance zone, Fibonacci confluence, important target for buyers.
3,661–3,662: short-term support, the boundary to determine the next trend.
3,613–3,626: FVG + intermediate support, a zone prone to reactions.
3,551: volume POC, a deeper target if the market breaks all support.
I will apply the long-term trading scenario in the new week, give me a follow for motivation to write more!
Gold holds firm at 3,63x | Caution for Friday session🟡 XAU/USD – 19/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
FED : Probability of a 25bps cut in October is 91.9%, while holding rates is only 8.9% → almost certain FED will continue easing.
US News : No major data today, market remains quiet.
Gold : Sharp moves in Asia session, but support 3,632 – 3,630 held strong.
Yesterday’s Buy at 3,62x delivered 200 pips , confirming this zone as a “fortress” support.
Note : Today is Friday – end of the week session, unexpected volatility may occur before the weekly close → strict risk management required.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold remains bullish, but caution is needed with end-of-week swings. Golden Harbor around 3,63x continues to be a solid anchor.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,661 – 3,663 (intraday resistance)
3,683 – 3,685 (strong OB, likely profit-taking zone)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,602 – 3,605 (FVG zone – deeper support if 3,63x breaks, waiting for strong demand)
Market Structure
After rebounding from 3,62x, Gold consolidated around 3,65x – 3,66x.
Main trend stays bullish, but needs support retest to confirm buyers’ strength.
3,66x is the pivot barrier:
• Breakout → targets 3,68x
• Rejection → retest 3,64x – 3,62x
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Entry: 3,602 – 3,605
SL: 3,588
TP: 3,629 – 3,661 – 3,683
⚡ Sell (short scalp)
Entry: 3,683 – 3,685
SL: 3,695
TP: 3,665 – 3,645
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The 3,63x fortress continues to hold, keeping the Golden ship safe on its northward journey. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,602 – 3,605) remains the main dock for sailors to gather strength. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,683 – 3,685) may raise waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . Today is Friday – the sea can shift unexpectedly, so keep the sails full but hands steady on the helm.”
XAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market InsightsXAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market Insights
Gold is showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations, with price consolidating around the mid-range levels. The chart highlights repeated sequences of structural breaks and shifts, indicating that liquidity has been actively swept on both the buy and sell side.
The latest market move shows a controlled decline, followed by an attempt to absorb selling pressure. Current positioning suggests the possibility of a short-term liquidity grab to the downside, which could fuel a stronger recovery leg in the sessions ahead.
The projected outlook favors a scenario where buyers regain momentum, aiming to retest the upper price zones. If this momentum develops, the market may establish a renewed upward leg in alignment with the broader bullish cycle observed across higher timeframes.
From a macro perspective, gold continues to be supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing global financial uncertainty and shifting monetary policies. This backdrop enhances the probability of gold sustaining its mid-term bullish trajectory despite temporary corrective phases.
XAUUSD - Flag PatternWhats your take on Guys.
#Institutions Consolidation going on - #Accumulation or #Distribution.
Kind of #Triangle #pattern in formation, ##Flagpattern. DO your analysis, Enter trade on Breakout and confirmation side. Trade with #confluence. i would say accumulate at bottom of pattern with SL and Participate in full swing before #Breakout.
Gold XAUUSD feeling exhausted start sell on rise Gold sell on rise until recent high high 3705 not break and sustain above, profit booking will come , if break 3615 then short term downtrend will start , 3560, 3515 ,3480 downside target
Avoid any buy trade at current price risk of trapping on buy side at top
GOLD - Breakout / Swept High appear - Where to BUY ? 🟡 OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD Daily Plan – September 19, 2025
1. Market Overview
Price is consolidating around 3655 – 3660 after forming a short-term bearish structure.
On H1, several supply & demand zones are highlighted:
Liquidity Buy Zone around 3640 (potential demand).
Imbalance / Supply Zone around 3670 – 3680.
The overall higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, but in the short term, the market is retesting liquidity areas.
2. Key Levels & Zones
Liquidity Buy Zone: 3640 – 3645 → key support.
Sell Scalp Zone / Imbalance: 3670 – 3680 → short-term resistance.
Higher High Target (HH): 3700 – 3710 → strong higher-timeframe resistance.
Longer-term Support: 3620 – 3630.
3. Main Trading Scenarios
🟢 Long Setup (trend-aligned)
Wait for price to retest Liquidity Buy zone 3640 – 3645.
If reversal signals appear (pin bar, engulfing, etc.), consider opening Long.
Targets:
Short-term: 3678 (trendline break retest).
Mid-term: 3700 – 3710 (HH).
🔴 Short Setup (scalp only)
If price retraces into Sell Scalp Zone 3670 – 3680 and shows strong rejection → Short scalp opportunity.
Target: 3640 – 3645.
Note: Short trades are counter-trend, so manage quickly.
4. Trade Management Notes
Prioritize Longs from support zones since the higher-timeframe trend is still bullish.
Shorts should only be seen as short-term scalp opportunities near resistance.
Risk management: limit to 1–2% per trade, avoid holding against the main trend.
📌 Conclusion: XAUUSD is currently testing the descending trendline and resistance area. A successful breakout could target 3700+. Otherwise, the market is likely to revisit 3640 before launching the next bullish leg.
Gold Trading Inside Channel – Key Support & Resistance Levels!Hello Traders!
Gold is currently moving inside a well-defined ascending channel on the 30-min chart. Both buyers and sellers are respecting the levels of this channel, giving us clear trading opportunities.
Key Observations
Price has tested the upper channel resistance multiple times, facing rejection near $3,710–$3,720.
The lower channel support around $3,650 has been well respected, creating strong buying reactions.
A minor resistance trendline is now forming, which could temporarily limit upside momentum.
Short-term path suggests: rejection from minor resistance → retest of channel bottom → potential bounce back toward the upper channel.
Trading Plan
Bullish bias remains intact as long as Gold holds above $3,650 channel support.
A bounce from support may target $3,710–$3,720 zone again.
If support breaks, deeper correction may follow.
Rahul’s Tip
Always wait for confirmation near channel edges. Trading inside the channel can be tricky, but respecting support and resistance gives you high-probability setups.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Analysis By @TraderRahulPal (TradingView Moderator) | More analysis & educational content on my profile
👉 If you found this helpful, don’t forget to like and follow for regular updates.
The Gold/Silver Ratio: Why It Matters So Much?The Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. It’s one of the oldest indicators in commodity markets, with data going back centuries.
Long-term average: ~65
Extreme high: 105 in 2020 (COVID panic, gold as pure safe-haven while silver crashed)
Current level: ~80
1. Why the Ratio Is So Powerful
When the GSR is high (above 90–100), it means silver is undervalued relative to gold.
When the GSR falls, it signals that silver is outperforming gold – usually during the most explosive parts of precious metals cycles.
In simple terms:
👉 High ratio = silver cheap
👉 Falling ratio = silver catching up/outperforming
2. The Recent Move
At the 105 peak (2020), silver was ignored and gold was everyone’s safe-haven. That extreme stretched the ratio to historic highs.
Since then, the ratio has broken down to ~80. This collapse in the ratio coincided with silver’s recent 48–50% rally since April 2025.
So there’s already a tight correlation between GSR falling and silver surging.
3. Forward Projection
If we assume the ratio continues mean-reverting towards its historical average (~65):
From 80 → 65 = a ~20% decline in the ratio.
Given how silver has tracked ratio moves so far, that could translate to another ~50% upside.
🖊️ That math gives me:
Current silver ~$50 → my target range $70–73
Which also aligns with the inflation-adjusted 2011 top of Quarterly Silver chart
This alignment across technical (Cup & Handle), ratio math, and inflation-adjusted targets strengthens the conviction.
4. Where This Gets Interesting
The GSR chart you provided shows a trendline break risk:
If the ratio decisively breaks down from ~80, it confirms silver is in outperformance mode.
A breakdown projects to ~65 (mean), and potentially overshoot lower if momentum builds.
Historically, when the GSR enters a sustained downtrend, silver rallies parabolically.
🎈 Key Takeaway:
The Gold/Silver ratio is not just a technical indicator here – it’s the bridge linking your macro thesis (ETF demand, industrial pull, Fed distrust) with your chart targets.
The ratio tells us that:
Silver’s catch-up has already started.
There’s room for another 50% upside.
This lands silver in the $70–73 zone – exactly where the inflation-adjusted 2011 high sits.
(XAU/USD) – Gold likely to touch $4,000/oz: Ideal buying levels?1. Market Structure & Trend Outlook
On the H1 chart, gold is sustaining its bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows.
After the BoS (Break of Structure), price retraced near 3,862 Buy Zone and bounced upward.
At present, price trades above EMA34 and EMA89, keeping bullish bias intact.
2. Important Levels
Buy Zone: 3,862 – 3,865. Acts as short-term support. Holding above strengthens the bullish case.
OB1: 3,806 – 3,810. Next support in case Buy Zone breaks.
OB2: 3,763 – 3,770. Deeper support, triggered only if market corrects heavily.
Sell Scalping Zone (Fibo): 3,912. A short-term resistance, profit booking expected.
Sell Zone / ATH: 3,933 – 3,935. Breakout here may lead to fresh record highs.
3. Trade Setups
Bullish Setup: Buy on retest of 3,862 – 3,865.
SL: Below 3,850.
TP1: 3,912.
TP2: 3,933 – 3,935.
Bearish Setup (Defensive): If below 3,860, expect test of 3,806 – 3,810.
If this fails, price may decline towards 3,763 – 3,770.
4. Conclusion
Trend remains positive on H1. Best strategy: Buy on dips near support, manage SLs carefully, and book partial profits near resistances. Sustaining above 3,933 may open doors for new highs.
US Government Shutdown Sends Gold Flying HigherWhat's Happening With Gold?
Gold continues recording new high despite monthly RSI reading of 89-90 signalling extremely overbought conditions and casual pullbacks are attracting buyers on any dip towards value areas resuming higher high and higher low structure which is precisely bullish.
Disappointing ADP numbers keep dollar under pressure and Gold gets substantial support as bond yields remain neutral or dull.
Recent record high of $3895 witnessed a minor pullback to $3852 which was quickly absorbed by buyers retesting $3893 today and prices stand at striking distance of record high.
What's Driving the Bullish Rally?
Fundamental Drivers:
The US government shutdown and fiscal stress has caused global concerns triggering increased bets for risk off sentiments driving investors for higher Gold prices on safe haven buying.
Continued Dollar Weakness below critical resistance 98 is supportive for dollar denominated Gold reducing opportunity cost of holding the non yielding asset.
Sticky Inflation makes Gold a preferred hedge against inflation as store of value.
Geo political concerns across Europe, mid east keep safe haven demand strong and boost Gold prices further.
Robust buying by major Central Banks create further structural demand for Gold as several central banks continue increasing Gold in reserve than dollar and no central bank selling Gold despite record high prices.
Any surprise hawkish message from the Fed members or strong economic data can cause a pullback in Gold prices while any dovish tone by Fed will further boost Gold prices.
Technical Drivers:
Technical structure is still bullish favouring further continuation supported by price stability above immediate support $3852 and moving within a strong ascending bullish parallel channel as seen on the 4 hourly chart while further bullish extension requires strong break and stability above immediate resistance $3898 which targets next leg higher $3914 followed by $3934
Overbought conditions on Monthly RSI reading 89-90 urges caution on heights as break below crucial support may trigger profit booking pressure, especially if some news about potential agreement on US shutdown strengthens dollar and treasury yields.
If Gold breaks below $3872, expect a retest of $3860-$3858 while break below $3852 will expose $3845 followed by $3830-$3820
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 2/10/2025🔎
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Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to reverse → this signals that the bullish trend is becoming very weak.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning upward → today we may see a recovery move, with price either rising further or moving sideways to push H4 momentum into the overbought zone.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the overbought zone → the recovery continues for now, but once H1 reverses inside the overbought zone, the next downward move may begin.
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Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe
o Price reached the second target yesterday.
o Momentum on D1 is showing signs of reversal → if today closes with a bearish candle, it may confirm that the yellow wave 5 top has been completed.
o In that case, a 3-wave correction on D1 will unfold.
o The duration of this correction will likely be longer than the previous yellow wave 2 and wave 4 corrections.
• H4 timeframe
o A downward move has completed, and momentum is turning upward.
o If H4 enters the overbought zone without creating a new high, it provides strong evidence that the purple wave 5 has been completed.
o The current structure shows the confluence of multiple wave 5s, fulfilling the condition of an ending diagonal triangle:
Features: new highs and new lows are created, but they become progressively smaller, forming a rising triangle.
Once completed → a sharp decline is expected.
• H1 timeframe
The structure is noisy, so we consider 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1 – Black wave 5 has already completed
o Price is currently in a corrective structure.
o Combined with H4 momentum reaching the overbought zone and reversing:
If price fails to break above 3897, then:
1. Price drops from the current level 3866 → toward 3830. Then retraces back to 3865 → this offers a very good shorting opportunity.
2. Price rallies to 3885 → but only if H4 momentum is in the overbought zone and starts to weaken → this also provides a great short setup.
Scenario 2 – Price breaks the high
o In this case, we consider the possibility of an ending diagonal triangle, combining channel structure and H4 momentum to find the short entry.
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Trading Plan
• Although we already have potential targets, placing limit orders at this stage is not effective.
• The key condition to wait for: H4 momentum must reach the overbought zone and reverse → that will provide a clearer and safer entry.
• I will update the entry point once H4 momentum reaches the overbought zone, to avoid the same situation as yesterday: correct wave direction, but wide volatility caused stop-loss hits.
Gold Record: Shutdown 'Blinds' the Fed Hello, traders!
Gold shows absolutely no sign of slowing down, closing the October 1st session at $3,866.66/oz, while futures contracts hit a record high of $3,897.50/oz. The precious metal has climbed nearly 50% year-to-date and just set its 39th record high this year!
Fundamental Analysis: Shutdown Risk Hits at the Worst Time
While government shutdowns usually have a minor impact, the timing of this one is critical:
Delayed Jobs Data: The crucial jobs report (scheduled for Oct 3rd) will be postponed. This uncertainty will leave the market and the Fed 'blind' regarding the economy's health just weeks before the next policy meeting, triggering strong demand for safe-haven assets (Gold).
Threat of Staff Cuts: President Trump threatened to use the shutdown to cut "a lot of" federal employees, escalating tensions beyond typical closures and increasing political instability.
Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
Gold accelerated past the $387x region during the US session, confirming the upward momentum is still very strong. However, the market is prone to more "Stop Loss hunting" (liquidity sweeps). Continue to Prioritize Buy, but manage SL carefully due to wider price swings.
Resistance: $3887, $3895, $3904
Support: $3870, $3854, $3843
Suggested Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY ZONE
Zone: $3870 - $3868 / SL: $3860
TP: $3878 - $3888 - $3898 - $3908
SELL ZONE (High Risk)
Zone: $3903 - $3905 / SL: $3913
TP: $3895 - $3885 - $3875
Gold is running on a foundation of fear. Do you think the $3900 mark will be breached this session? 👇
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