“The Art of Traps: Understanding Fake Breakouts in XAUUSD”“The Art of Traps: Understanding Fake Breakouts in XAUUSD”
This chart illustrates how gold (XAUUSD) is currently navigating a critical battle between resistance and support.
At the top, the resistance zone (3440–3460) has already shown signs of rejection, hinting at a possible fake breakout scenario. Such traps are common in financial markets—they draw traders into buying late, only for price to reverse and capture liquidity.
On the downside, the chart highlights two important stages:
The first target lies around 3400, where short-term buyers may start taking profits.
The final target sits at the key support zone (3330–3320), which has acted as a structural backbone in past moves. If this level holds, we can expect another bullish leg; if broken, deeper downside pressure could unfold.
The sequence of higher lows in recent weeks demonstrates strength in the broader trend, but it also warns that markets are building energy before a larger move. Liquidity sweeps (marked in the chart) serve as reminders that price does not move randomly—it often seeks zones where orders are concentrated.
🔑 Educational Takeaway:
Trading is not just about spotting breakouts; it’s about understanding whether those moves are genuine or deceptive. By studying price behavior at resistance and support, traders can avoid falling into liquidity traps and position themselves with the “smart money.”
GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 3, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 3, 2025: Gold prices are stable, heading towards the $3,550 mark with ETF capital flows boosting and the market is also waiting for employment data and developments from the FED.
Basic news: Spot gold prices remained stable in today's Asian trading session, after rising sharply in the previous session. The current international gold price is around $3,531/ounce, according to CMC Group's FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in nearly 92% of the possibility that the Fed will cut 25 basis points at the meeting on September 17.
Technical analysis: Spot gold prices continue to increase strongly. The rising price channel remains. Currently, the MA lines and the Fib frame are still very good support areas for prices, however, the RSI is in the overbought area; we should be careful that prices will have a correction first and then increase again. We limit FOMO, continue to wait at support zones combined between MA, Fib and FVG zone.
Important price zones today: 3500 - 3505 and 3475 - 3480.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3500 - 3502
SL 3497
TP 3505 - 3515 - 3530 - 3550.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3475 - 3477
SL 3472
TP 3480 - 3490 - 3500 - 3530.
Wish you a safe, effective and profitable trading day.💯💯💯💯💯
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Report📊 Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Report
🔹 Fundamental Outlook
Gold remains supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank policies. With global inflation pressures stabilizing but geopolitical tensions persisting, institutional demand for gold as a hedge is intact. The US dollar’s fluctuations and interest rate expectations continue to influence short-term moves, but central banks’ ongoing gold accumulation provides strong long-term demand. Investor sentiment leans toward risk-hedging assets, keeping gold fundamentally supported.
🔹 Technical Structure
This week’s chart shows that gold has recently completed a downward corrective phase and executed a clear breakout from its descending channel. The breakout has been followed by strong bullish momentum, suggesting renewed institutional buying interest.
The market is now showing a healthy impulsive leg upward, with higher highs and higher lows forming. After this strong move, short-term price action indicates a potential cooling-off period—a common consolidation stage before continuation.
Volume flow reflects increasing participation during the breakout, confirming strength in the move. The broader price structure remains trend-reversal aligned, favoring further upside if momentum sustains.
XAUUSD – Sell Strategy ActivatedXAUUSD – Sell Strategy Activated
Hello traders,
Gold has followed the expected scenario, reacting precisely around the 3508–3510 zone. This correction is a good signal to consider a bearish outlook. However, for a clearer confirmation, price needs to close an M15 candle below 3466. If that happens, the previous bullish wave will be considered invalid, giving a stronger probability for the Sell setup.
Structurally, gold is still within the main rising channel, which means an early short entry should wait until liquidity from the small FVG zone above is fully taken.
Technical indicators are supporting this view:
MACD has shown consistent bearish momentum in the last 4 H1 candles.
Several indicators are already showing divergence, pointing to weakening bullish strength.
Sell zone to watch: around 3488–3491.
Setup invalidated if price breaks above the nearest resistance.
At this stage, the appetite for new long positions is fading, and buying at these levels carries greater risk. Remember, no trend moves in one direction forever – for price to reach higher targets, secondary corrective moves are necessary.
This is my trading scenario for gold in the coming sessions. Take it as reference and share your thoughts in the comments.
AI Trading Psychology1. The Role of Psychology in Traditional Trading
Before AI, trading was primarily a human-driven endeavor. Every market move reflected the collective emotions of thousands of participants. Understanding traditional trading psychology provides the foundation for how AI modifies it.
Key Psychological Factors in Human Trading
Fear and Greed: Fear leads to panic selling; greed fuels bubbles. Together, they explain much of market volatility.
Loss Aversion: Traders hate losing money more than they enjoy making money. This leads to holding losing trades too long and selling winners too early.
Overconfidence: Many traders believe their analysis is superior, leading to risky positions and underestimating market uncertainty.
Herd Behavior: People often follow the crowd, especially in uncertain conditions, which creates manias and crashes.
Confirmation Bias: Traders seek information that supports their views and ignore contradictory evidence.
Example
During the 2008 financial crisis, fear spread faster than rational analysis. Even fundamentally strong stocks were sold off because investor psychology turned negative. Similarly, the Dot-com bubble of 2000 was fueled more by collective greed and hype than by realistic fundamentals.
In short, psychology is central to markets. AI trading challenges this dynamic by removing emotional decision-making from the execution layer.
2. How AI Transforms Trading Psychology
AI changes trading psychology in two major ways:
On the trader’s side, by reducing the emotional burden of decision-making.
On the market’s side, by reshaping collective behavior through algorithmic dominance.
AI’s Strengths in Overcoming Human Weaknesses
No emotions: AI doesn’t panic, doesn’t get greedy, and doesn’t second-guess itself.
Data-driven: It relies on massive datasets instead of gut feelings.
Consistency: It sticks to strategy rules without deviation.
Speed: It reacts in milliseconds, often before human traders even notice market changes.
Example
High-frequency trading (HFT) firms use algorithms that can execute thousands of trades per second. Their strategies rely on speed and mathematics, not human intuition. The psychological edge comes from removing human hesitation and inconsistency.
The Psychological Shift
For traders, using AI means learning to trust algorithms over instinct. This is not easy, because humans are naturally emotional and skeptical of machines making high-stakes financial decisions. The new psychological challenge is not just controlling one’s emotions but balancing trust and oversight in AI systems.
3. Human-AI Interaction: Trust, Fear, and Overreliance
One of the most important psychological dimensions of AI trading is human trust in technology. Traders must decide how much autonomy to give AI.
Trust Issues
Overtrust: Believing AI is infallible, leading to blind reliance.
Undertrust: Constantly interfering with AI decisions, which undermines performance.
Fear of the Unknown
Many traders feel anxious about “black-box AI” models like deep learning, where even developers cannot fully explain why the system makes certain decisions. This lack of transparency creates psychological unease.
Overreliance
Some traders outsource their entire decision-making process to AI. While this removes emotional interference, it also creates dependency. If the system fails or encounters unseen market conditions, the trader may be ill-prepared to respond.
Example
The 2010 Flash Crash showed the danger of overreliance. Algorithms created a cascade of selling that temporarily erased nearly $1 trillion in market value within minutes. Human oversight was slow to react because many traders trusted the machines too much.
This highlights a paradox: AI reduces human psychological flaws but introduces new psychological risks related to trust, dependence, and control.
4. Cognitive Biases in AI Trading
Although AI itself is not emotional, the humans designing and using AI systems bring their own biases into the process.
Designer Bias
AI reflects the assumptions, goals, and limitations of its creators.
For example, if a model is trained only on bullish market data, it may perform poorly in bear markets.
User Bias
Traders may interpret AI outputs selectively, aligning them with pre-existing beliefs (confirmation bias).
Some traders only follow AI signals when they match their own intuition, which defeats the purpose.
Automation Bias
Humans tend to favor automated suggestions over their own judgment, even when the machine is wrong. In trading, this can lead to dangerous blind spots.
Anchoring Bias
If an AI system provides a target price, traders may anchor to that number instead of re-evaluating based on new data.
In essence, AI does not eliminate psychological biases; it shifts them from direct decision-making to the way humans interact with AI systems.
5. Emotional Detachment vs. Emotional Influence
AI offers emotional detachment in execution. A machine doesn’t panic-sell during volatility. But human emotions still play a role in how AI systems are used.
Benefits of Emotional Detachment
Prevents irrational trades during panic.
Maintains discipline in following strategies.
Reduces stress and fatigue from constant monitoring.
The Emotional Influence Remains
Traders still feel anxiety when giving up control.
Profit or loss generated by AI still triggers emotional reactions.
Traders may override AI decisions impulsively, especially after losses.
Example
A retail trader using an AI-based trading bot may panic when seeing consecutive losses and shut it down prematurely, even if the system is statistically sound in the long run. Here, psychology undermines the benefit of AI’s discipline.
6. AI’s Psychological Impact on Market Participants
AI does not only affect individual traders—it changes the psychology of entire markets.
Increased Efficiency but Reduced Transparency
Markets with high algorithmic participation move faster and more efficiently. However, the lack of transparency in AI strategies creates uncertainty, which increases anxiety among traditional traders.
Psychological Divide
Professional traders with AI tools feel empowered, confident, and competitive.
Retail traders without access often feel disadvantaged and fearful of being exploited by machines.
Market Sentiment Acceleration
AI can amplify psychological extremes:
Positive sentiment spreads faster due to automated buying.
Negative sentiment cascades into rapid sell-offs.
This leads to shorter cycles of fear and greed, creating more volatile but efficient markets.
7. Ethical and Behavioral Implications
AI trading psychology extends into ethics and behavior.
Ethical Questions
Should traders use AI to exploit behavioral weaknesses of retail investors?
Is it ethical for algorithms to manipulate order books or engage in predatory strategies?
Behavioral Shifts
Younger traders may grow up trusting AI more than human intuition.
Traditional investors may resist, clinging to human-driven analysis.
This divide reflects not just technological adoption but also psychological adaptation to a new era of finance.
8. The Future of AI Trading Psychology
Looking ahead, AI trading psychology will continue to evolve.
Human-AI Symbiosis
The best outcomes will likely come from a hybrid approach:
AI handles execution and data analysis.
Humans provide judgment, ethical oversight, and adaptability.
Enhanced Transparency
To build trust, future AI systems may integrate explainable AI (XAI), allowing traders to understand the reasoning behind decisions. This will reduce anxiety and increase confidence.
Education and Adaptation
As traders become more familiar with AI, the psychological barriers of fear and mistrust will decline. Training in both technology and behavioral finance will be essential.
Market Psychology Evolution
Over time, collective market psychology may shift. Instead of being dominated by fear and greed of individuals, markets may increasingly reflect the programmed logic and optimization goals of algorithms. However, since humans still control AI design, psychology will never fully disappear—it will just manifest differently.
Conclusion
AI trading psychology is a fascinating blend of traditional behavioral finance and modern technological adaptation. While AI removes human emotions from execution, it introduces new psychological dynamics: trust, fear, overreliance, and ethical dilemmas.
The key insight is that psychology doesn’t vanish with AI—it transforms. Traders must now master not only their own emotions but also their relationship with algorithms. At the same time, AI reshapes the collective psychology of markets, accelerating cycles of fear and greed while creating new layers of uncertainty.
In the future, the traders who succeed will not be those who fight against AI, but those who learn to integrate human intuition with machine intelligence, balancing emotional wisdom with computational power.
High probability 1:7 Gold buy scenario.Gold is developing nice scenario for upside move. Currently it is under consolidation. We are expecting manipulation toward FVG (1 and 15m overlapping) and then upward movement after liquidity sweep. Below is detail
1. Price has created Break of Structure.
2. Displacement happened, which created FVGs in 5 and 15m overlapping.
3. FVGs are formed in Discount and OTE zone.
4. FVGs are overlapping BB on 5m.
5. HTF bias is also upside.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:7) trade scenario.
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Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share.
Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
All-Time High Achieved: Can Gold Hold Above 3500?Gold has successfully tested the 3500 level, printing a fresh all-time high, and momentum remains strong. However, looking at the H4 chart, price action appears slightly stretched, hinting at the possibility of a short-term pullback. A retest toward the previous month’s high / previous week’s high zone (around 3450–3460) cannot be ruled out, and that level will be key to watch for a bullish bounce. As long as gold manages to hold above the 3400 daily close support, any retracement can be seen as a healthy dip-buying opportunity within the broader bullish trend. For now, 3500 stands as immediate resistance, while 3450 is short-term support, and 3400 remains a major level to defend. A sustained daily close above 3500 will open the door for further upside continuation and fresh breakout territory.
XAU/USD Bullish Setup – Buy from POI Zone Towards 3545 TargetXAU/USD (15M Chart) Analysis
Trend Analysis:
Price is in a clear uptrend, supported by higher highs and higher lows above the EMA 70 & EMA 200. Both EMAs are pointing upward, confirming bullish momentum.
POI & FVG Zone:
A POI/FVG buying zone (highlighted in pink) is marked between 3481 – 3491, acting as a strong demand area for re-entry if price retraces.
Chart Pattern:
Price has broken out of a rising wedge formation and is retesting the breakout zone, showing potential continuation to the upside.
Support & Resistance:
Support: 3481 – 3491 zone (FVG & EMA confluence).
Resistance/Target: 3545.608 (major target point).
Entry & Risk Management:
Entry: Buy near 3491 or 3481 (within POI/FVG zone).
Stop Loss: Below 3480 (to protect against false break).
Target: 3545 (approx. +55 points).
Strategy Confirmation:
Trend-following: Bullish continuation above EMAs.
FVG/POI: Perfect re-entry buying zone.
Breakout strategy: Price broke wedge → retest → continuation expected.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Around 1:4, favorable trade setup.
✅ Summary:
XAU/USD remains bullish above EMAs. Ideal trade is to buy the dip at 3481–3491 zone with a target at 3545 and stop loss below 3480. Multiple strategies align for upside continuation.
Gold Trading Strategy for 02nd September 2025📊 Gold Intraday Trading Plan
🔼 Buy Setup
Entry: Buy above the high of a 15-min candle that closes above $3484
Targets:
1st Target: $3495
2nd Target: $3505
3rd Target: $3515
🔽 Sell Setup
Entry: Sell below the low of a 1-hour candle that closes below $3467
Targets:
1st Target: $3453
2nd Target: $3440
3rd Target: $3428
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in commodities, forex, or stocks involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your invested capital. Always do your own research, use proper risk management, and consult with your financial advisor before taking any trades.
XAU USD KEY LEVELS 01-09Greetings,
Hello traders, this is the XAU-USD 15m pivot resistance zone.
Based on market trend and previous day movement.
Intraday pivot resistance 2 line is represented by the yellow line. (3485)
Key levels;
Entry: 3485
Target: 3480
Stop loss: 3490
Risk Reward Ratio 1:1
Your likes and boosts motivate us to keep learning and sharing ideas!
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 1, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy September 1, 2025: Gold reversed its decline and surged to its weekly target, boosted by U.S. PCE data and concerns about Fed independence.
Fundamentals: Gold prices reversed course in the U.S. trading session last week, erasing all losses and rising to a new high. After the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report largely met expectations, the precious metal traded near $3,454, its highest level since June 16. The weakening dollar supported gold prices, while traders continued to bet on the Federal Reserve's monetary easing measures in September.
Technical analysis: Gold prices, after breaking the 3,420 - 3,425 area, rose sharply to the 3,485 area and are heading towards the old ATH area of 3,500. We will now trade in an uptrend, waiting for a trading point at the combined support zones of MA, Fib and FVG.
Important price zones today: 3,420 - 3,425 and 3,445 - 3,450.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3445 - 3447
SL 3442
TP 3450 - 3460 - 3480 - 3500.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3420 - 3422
SL 3417
TP 3425 - 3435 - 3455 - 3500.
Wish you a new week of safe, effective trading and lots of profit.🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Gold Next MoveExecution Plan
1. Entry
Primary Long Setup:
Wait for price to dip into the $3,429–$3,423 demand zone.
Look for bullish rejection candles (wicks, engulfing, or strong bounce).
Enter long above $3,430–$3,433 confirmation.
Aggressive Entry:
If price holds above $3,437, a long can be initiated with tighter risk.
⸻
2. Stop Loss
Conservative: Below $3,423 (around $3,420).
Aggressive: Below $3,404 (major support/invalidation).
⸻
3. Targets
Target 1: $3,445 (near-term bounce).
Target 2: $3,453–$3,455 (recent high/resistance).
Target 3 (extended): $3,470+ if momentum continues.
⸻
4. Alternative Scenario
If price breaks below $3,404, bullish setup is invalid → stay out or switch bias to short.
In that case, downside may extend to $3,380–$3,385.
⸻
In summary:
Buy the dip near $3,429–$3,423 zone with stop below $3,404.
Take profits near $3,453–$3,470.
Only flip bearish if $3,404 is broken with strong momentum.
Basics of Derivatives in IndiaIntroduction
The financial market is like a vast ocean where investors, traders, institutions, and governments interact. Within this ocean, different instruments allow participants to manage risk, invest, or speculate. One of the most powerful tools in modern finance is Derivatives.
In India, derivatives have become an essential part of the stock market, commodity market, and even the currency market. They allow investors to hedge risk, speculate on price movements, and improve liquidity. Since the early 2000s, India’s derivative market has grown to become one of the largest in the world.
This write-up will explain derivatives in India in simple, detailed, and structured language, covering their meaning, types, uses, risks, and the overall market structure.
1. Meaning of Derivatives
A Derivative is a financial instrument whose value is “derived” from the price of another underlying asset. The underlying asset can be:
Stocks (Equities)
Indices (Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, Sensex, etc.)
Commodities (Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Wheat, Cotton, etc.)
Currencies (USD/INR, EUR/INR, etc.)
Interest Rates or Bonds
The derivative itself has no independent value — it is only a contract based on the future value of the underlying asset.
Example:
Suppose Reliance Industries stock is trading at ₹2,500. You and another trader enter into a derivative contract (say, a future) where you agree to buy Reliance stock after one month at ₹2,600. The value of your contract will move up or down depending on Reliance’s market price in the future.
2. History of Derivatives in India
The journey of derivatives in India is relatively new compared to developed markets like the US.
Before 2000: Indian markets mainly had spot trading (buying/selling shares). Informal forward trading existed but was unregulated.
2000: SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) introduced derivatives officially. NSE launched index futures on Nifty 50 as the first derivative product.
2001: Index options were introduced.
2002: Stock options and stock futures were introduced.
2003 onwards: Derivatives expanded to commodities (MCX, NCDEX) and later to currencies.
Present: India has one of the world’s most actively traded derivatives markets, with Nifty and Bank Nifty options among the highest traded globally.
3. Types of Derivatives
There are four primary types of derivatives:
(a) Forward Contracts
A forward contract is a customized agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a future date at a pre-decided price.
These contracts are over-the-counter (OTC), meaning they are private and not traded on exchanges.
Example: A farmer agrees to sell 100 quintals of wheat to a trader at ₹2,000/quintal after three months.
Issues: High risk of default because there’s no exchange guarantee.
(b) Futures Contracts
Futures are standardized forward contracts that are traded on exchanges (NSE, BSE, MCX).
The exchange guarantees settlement, reducing counterparty risk.
Example: Buying a Nifty 50 Futures Contract expiring in September at 24,000 means you’re betting Nifty will be higher than that price.
Key Features:
Standardized contract size
Daily settlement (Mark-to-Market)
High liquidity
(c) Options Contracts
An option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price before or on a certain date.
Types of options:
Call Option: Right to buy
Put Option: Right to sell
Example: You buy a Reliance Call Option at ₹2,600 strike price. If Reliance rises to ₹2,800, you can exercise your option and profit. If the stock falls, you can let the option expire by only losing the premium paid.
(d) Swaps
A swap is a contract where two parties exchange cash flows or liabilities.
In India, swaps are mainly used by institutions, not retail traders.
Example: An Indian company with a loan at floating interest rate swaps it with another company having a fixed interest rate loan.
4. Derivative Instruments in India
In India, derivatives are available in:
Equity Derivatives: Nifty Futures, Bank Nifty Options, Stock Futures & Options.
Commodity Derivatives: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Agricultural commodities (via MCX, NCDEX).
Currency Derivatives: USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR futures and options.
Interest Rate Derivatives: Limited but available for institutional participants.
5. Participants in the Derivative Market
Different participants enter derivatives for different purposes:
Hedgers
Businesses or investors who want to protect themselves from price volatility.
Example: A farmer hedging against falling crop prices.
Speculators
Traders who try to make profits from price fluctuations.
Example: Buying Nifty options hoping for a rally.
Arbitrageurs
They exploit price differences between markets.
Example: If Reliance stock trades at ₹2,500 in the spot market but the futures is at ₹2,520, arbitrageurs will sell futures and buy in spot to lock in profit.
Margin Traders
Traders who use leverage (borrowed money) to amplify gains and losses.
6. Role of SEBI and Exchanges
SEBI is the regulator of the Indian derivative market. It ensures transparency, fairness, and prevents market manipulation.
NSE & BSE provide trading platforms for equity derivatives.
MCX & NCDEX are major exchanges for commodities.
Clearing Corporations ensure smooth settlement and eliminate counterparty risk.
7. Trading Mechanism in Indian Derivatives
Open a demat and trading account with a broker.
Maintain margin money to enter into derivative trades.
Place orders (buy/sell futures or options).
Daily profit/loss is settled through Mark-to-Market (MTM).
On expiry date, contracts are either cash-settled or physically settled.
8. Margin System in India
Initial Margin: Minimum amount required to enter a derivative position.
Maintenance Margin: Minimum balance to be maintained.
Mark-to-Market Margin: Daily profit/loss adjustment.
This ensures traders don’t default.
9. Risks in Derivatives
While derivatives offer opportunities, they are risky:
Market Risk: Sudden price movements can cause big losses.
Leverage Risk: Small margin allows big positions, amplifying losses.
Liquidity Risk: Some contracts may not have enough buyers/sellers.
Operational Risk: Mismanagement or technical issues.
Systemic Risk: Large defaults affecting the whole market.
10. Advantages of Derivatives in India
Risk Management (Hedging)
Price Discovery
High Liquidity (especially Nifty & Bank Nifty options)
Lower Transaction Costs compared to cash markets
Speculative Opportunities
11. Real-Life Examples in Indian Market
Nifty & Bank Nifty Options: Most traded globally, used by retail traders, institutions, and FIIs.
Reliance Futures: Highly liquid individual stock future.
Gold Futures on MCX: Popular among commodity traders.
USD/INR Futures: Widely used by importers/exporters to hedge currency risk.
12. Growth of Derivatives in India
India is among the largest derivative markets globally by volume.
NSE ranked No.1 worldwide in derivatives trading (by contracts traded) for several years.
Rising retail participation due to online trading platforms and lower costs.
13. Challenges in Indian Derivatives Market
High speculation and retail losses due to lack of knowledge.
Complexity of products for small investors.
Need for better risk management education.
Regulatory challenges in commodities (e.g., banning certain agri contracts due to volatility).
Conclusion
Derivatives in India have grown from a niche financial instrument to a core pillar of financial markets. They provide risk management, speculation, arbitrage, and liquidity benefits. However, they are a double-edged sword — while they can magnify profits, they can also magnify losses.
For Indian traders and businesses, understanding derivatives is crucial. From Nifty and Bank Nifty options dominating retail trade to commodity hedging by farmers and corporates, derivatives touch every corner of the economy.
As SEBI continues to strengthen regulations and technology makes access easier, the future of derivatives in India looks promising, provided participants use them wisely with proper risk management.
Will Gold Return to 3400?Market Context
Price has registered multiple bullish break of structure, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
A supply zone around 3449 – 3451 may trigger liquidity-driven reactions.
The fair value gap between 3360 – 3310 is still open and could pull price down before continuation.
Key Levels
Supply Zone: 3449 – 3451
Buy Zone 1: 3396 – 3400 (Stop Loss: 3390)
Buy Zone 2: 3310 – 3315 (Stop Loss: 3303)
FVG Zone: 3360 – 3310
Trading Scenarios
Primary Buy Setup
Entry: 3396 – 3400
Stop Loss: 3390
Target: 3449 – 3460 liquidity sweep
Secondary Buy Setup
Entry: 3310 – 3315
Stop Loss: 3303
Target: 3396 – 3449
Counter-trend Sell
Entry: 3449 – 3451, provided rejection is visible
Stop Loss: above 3458
Target: 3400 demand
Summary
The overall bias stays bullish with two key demand zones in play: 3400 for a shallow retracement and 3310 for a deeper liquidity sweep. Short positions near supply remain valid only as quick counter-trend trades.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (01/09/2025)
Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum has been stuck in the overbought zone for the past 4 days, showing strong buying pressure. However, this also creates noise since extended overbought conditions can reverse at any time.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is about to turn down in the overbought zone. Once an H4 candle closes with confirmation, we can expect a correction lasting around 4–5 H4 candles.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is heading into the overbought zone. Within 1–2 more H1 candles, a short-term pullback is likely.
________________________________________
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
Price has risen sharply and steeply, with momentum staying overbought for a long time. This suggests that wave 4 has likely completed, and the market is entering a long-term uptrend. The minimum target is 3684 (equal to the length of wave W).
• H4 timeframe:
Price is currently in red wave 3. We expect a correction into red wave 4, which aligns with H4 momentum preparing to turn down.
• H1 timeframe:
o Wave i (green) is labeled as a leading diagonal, even though wave ii (green) did not retrace as deeply as expected.
o Price is now in an extended wave iii (green).
o Within wave iii (green), a 5-wave structure 1-2-3-4-5 (red) is unfolding. Red wave 3 has already completed with its internal 5-wave (black).
o The target for black wave 5 was achieved at the Fibonacci 0.618 projection of black waves 1–3 → confirming that red wave 3 has completed and price is now correcting into red wave 4.
• Red wave 4 outlook:
Likely to take shape as a zigzag, flat, or triangle. Two retracement zones are identified:
1. 3462 – 23.6% retracement of red wave 3.
2. 3447 – 38.2% retracement of red wave 3.
Considering the guideline that wave 4 often returns to the territory of wave 4 of a smaller degree, and that H4 momentum needs more time to move into the oversold zone, we select 3447 as the primary target for a sell setup.
________________________________________
Trade Plan
• Buy Zone: 3448 – 3446
• Stop Loss: 3438
• Take Profit:
o TP1: 3485
o TP2: 3521
XAUUSD SD + OTE Long Trade (Smart Money Logic)This is my recent LONG trade on OANDA:XAUUSD on the 15 min chart.
When everyone was waiting to SHORT , I was waiting patiently in my LONG position.
Entry :
$3378 - Order Block + FVG + 0.5 Optimal Trade Entry level
Exit :
1st Target - $3400 (Standard Deviation Target 1 + 3400 psychological level)
2nd Target - $3418 (Standard Deviation Target 2)
NOTE: Smart Money DOES NOT HUNT stoplosses , they trigger their positions slightly below where they find maximum liquidity, because their positions are WAY TOO HUGE and need all the anti-orders (buy/sell stops) basically buy side or sell side liquidity so that they can fill in their orders. They are literally there to HELP YOU push the price up or down, you just need to place your stoplosses right! not too tight not too far off which may cause market structure shifts. SLs need to be absolutely perfect
Trade Explanation :
OANDA:XAUUSD should have used the 1D Bearish Order Block and we should have seen a fall or at least a decent enough retracement, but only 1 thing saved us, that is 15 min Bullish INDUCMENT and 1H BIAS . I never entered in a short trade!
I hope everyone saw these liquidity pools at the bottom and waited for them to get swept, but yeah, not always will liquidity be hunted right? Pools are areas with the most number of orders + stops. So aren't they supposed to be a good thing? :)
So, yes, DAILY bias is good, but again, LTF bias is also very necessary. Markets won't always respect the DAILY bias. Else, they would always be stuck in a sideways momentum right?
Think about it!
Also, do let me know in the comments what you feel about this trade and also share your analysis!
Gold Trading Scenario – Start of the WeekGold Trading Scenario – Start of the Week
Hello traders,
A new week begins with gold holding above the 34xx zone, establishing a fresh value area. The current structure has already broken through major resistance levels on the higher timeframe – including trendline and H4 barriers – confirming strong bullish momentum.
The uptrend played out exactly as expected, reaching the target around 3450 (specifically 3454). Now price is seeing a mild pullback. This will only be considered a trend reversal if price breaks below 3404. Otherwise, it is just a secondary correction as per Dow theory.
Wave 5 may be complete, but the ABC structure is still unclear. For that reason, the plan is to continue with long positions in line with the trend, which increases the probability of success.
Buy zone for today: 3408–3412, an area where sellers previously failed at resistance and which was broken through the trendline on Friday.
This is my outlook for Monday, viewed from a medium-term perspective. Take it as reference, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Part 4 Learn Institutional TradingBasics of Options (Calls & Puts)
There are two main types of options:
Call Option: Gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price (called the strike price) before or on the expiry date.
Example: You buy a Reliance call option with a strike price of ₹2500. If Reliance rises to ₹2700, you can buy at ₹2500 and gain from the difference.
Put Option: Gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price before expiry.
Example: You buy a Nifty put option with a strike price of 22,000. If Nifty falls to 21,500, your put gains in value since you can sell higher (22,000) while the market trades lower.
In simple terms:
Calls = Right to Buy
Puts = Right to Sell
How Options Work (Premiums, Strike Price, Expiry, Moneyness)
Every option has certain key components:
Premium: The price you pay to buy the option. This is determined by demand, supply, volatility, and time to expiry.
Strike Price: The fixed price at which the option holder can buy/sell the asset.
Expiry Date: Options are valid only for a certain period. In India, index options have weekly and monthly expiries, while stock options usually expire monthly.
Moneyness: This defines whether an option has intrinsic value.
In the Money (ITM): Already profitable if exercised.
At the Money (ATM): Strike price equals the current market price.
Out of the Money (OTM): Not profitable if exercised immediately.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 03/09/2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is still overlapping. As mentioned in the previous plan, with 6 consecutive daily candles in this condition, a reversal may occur today or tomorrow.
• H4: Momentum is preparing to turn bearish. If a confirming candle closes, we may see a downward move on H4.
• H1: Momentum is also turning bearish but right above the oversold zone. This suggests the correction on H1 may be near completion, followed by another upward move.
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Wave Structure
• D1: Price is still in an uptrend, possibly wave 1 of wave 5 or the final larger wave 5. Current wave targets are 3602 or 3667. This aligns with momentum on D1, which has been overlapping for 6 candles, signaling that in 1–2 more candles a reversal is likely.
• H4: A 5-wave purple structure is forming – the dominant structure of the current rally. Price is currently running in wave iii (purple).
o Inside wave iii purple, a 5-wave green structure has already formed and is nearing its final stage.
o Wave iii and iv green appear completed, and price is now in wave v green, which has broken the previous high of wave iii green, confirming its development.
• H1:
o The first target of wave v green was hit at 3542. The second target remains at 3585.
o Within wave v green, a 5-wave black sub-structure is visible.
o The Asian session opened with a breakout above the previous high, implying 2 scenarios:
1. Wave 5 black has completed after reaching the first target (3542).
2. Or it is forming a wave 4 black flat, holding above 3525 before heading to 3570–3585.
If price drops below 3525, it means wave 5 black has completed. Then, wave iv purple will target the zones 3498 and 3469 – areas to look for the next buy opportunity.
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Trading Plan
• Buy Zone 1: 3500 – 3498
o SL: 3400
o TP1: 3524
• Buy Zone 2: 3471 – 3469
o SL: 3459
o TP1: 3500
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for Monday✅ Daily Chart: The Bollinger Bands continue to expand, and spot gold is trading near the upper band, showing strong momentum. The MACD is running in a golden cross, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating that gold has clear demand for a bottom rebound.
However, close attention should be paid to the 3450–3455 trendline resistance. If the price fails to break above this level effectively, it could limit further upside potential.
✅ 4-Hour Chart: The Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with gold trading just below the upper band. The MACD golden cross momentum is narrowing, and the RSI has retreated from overbought levels, suggesting that the upward trend is slowing and that short-term correction pressure may emerge.
✅ 1-Hour Chart: Gold is currently trading near the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a death cross, and the RSI has fallen back from overbought levels, indicating weakening upward momentum and highlighting the risk of a pullback after overbought conditions.
🔴 Resistance Level: 3450–3455
🟢 Support Level: 3415–3420
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 Long Strategy: The overall trend remains bullish, so the main approach is to buy on pullbacks. If gold retraces to the 3415–3420 support zone and holds, light long positions may be considered with targets at 3440–3450.
🔰 Short Strategy: If the price tests the 3450–3455 resistance zone multiple times without a valid breakout, and bearish signals such as divergence or a shooting star candlestick appear, light short positions can be considered. Stop-loss above 3460, with downside targets at 3430–3420.
✅ Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after rebounding, with upward momentum showing signs of weakening. The key for Monday’s trading lies in whether the 3450–3455 resistance zone can be broken. The recommended approach is to buy on pullbacks as the primary strategy, and sell on rebounds as a secondary strategy, while strictly enforcing stop-loss measures to control risk.