Gold Smashes Records: Trade the Fed Drama & Rate Cut Hype!Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold Keeps Breaking Records! 🌟
New Peaks: Spot gold hit a record $3,527.5/oz on September 2, with analysts predicting a climb to $3,600-$3,900 this year, potentially surpassing $4,000 by 2026 if economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Reuters polls show 2025 average price forecasts rising from $2,756/oz (January) to $3,220/oz (July). 📈
Fed Rate Cut Buzz: Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising job market risks, boosting bets for a September rate cut. “A weakening USD, fueled by rate cut expectations, investor aversion to US assets, and tariff-related economic uncertainty, supports gold,” says Ricardo Evangelista from ActivTrades. Gold thrives in low-rate environments! 🏦
USD Weakness: The USD has lost nearly 11% since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, making gold more attractive to foreign currency holders. 📉
Fed Drama: Trump’s criticism of Powell and attempts to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook have raised fears about Fed independence, driving safe-haven gold demand. “Speculative bullishness stems from potential Fed interference and concerns over the USD’s safe status,” notes Carsten Menke from Julius Baer. ⚖️🇺🇸
Other Drivers: Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and central bank buying (e.g., China’s PBOC added gold for the 9th consecutive month in July 2025). The World Gold Council (WGC) reports central banks plan to increase gold reserves while reducing USD holdings. “Rising gold prices and central bank accumulation are boosting gold’s share in reserves,” says Michael Hsueh from Deutsche Bank. Gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Trust saw holdings rise 12% YTD to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Surge Continues, Prioritize BUY but Watch for Pullbacks! 📉
Gold keeps setting new highs, breaking through the round 3,500 level, dipping briefly to 3,469, then surging to 3,54x—near the Fibonacci extension 0.618. No clear reversal signals yet, so prioritize BUY if gold retraces to 3,52x or 3,51x. Bulls remain in control!
Key Resistance: 3,554 - 3,564 - 3,574
Key Support: 3,521 - 3,508 - 3,450 - 3,475
Trading Opportunities:
Sell Scalp : 3,543 - 3,545
SL: 3,549
TP: 3,540 - 3,535 - 3,530
Sell Zone : 3,571 - 3,573
SL: 3,581
TP: 3,563 - 3,553 - 3,543 - 3,523
Buy Scalp: 3,510 - 3,508
SL: 3,504
TP: 3,513 - 3,518 - 3,528
Buy Zone: 3,475 - 3,473
SL: 3,465
TP: 3,483 - 3,493 - 3,503 - 3,513 - Open
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GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
XAU/USD Bullish Setup – OB Zone to $3,590 TargetChart Overview (XAU/USD – 30m):
Current price: $3,534
Price is in a strong bullish channel (higher highs & higher lows).
Market forming an ATH (All-Time High) and consolidating.
📌 Strategies Applied:
1. Trendline Strategy:
Price respecting support & rejection lines inside ascending channel.
Trend remains bullish as long as price holds above support.
2. Order Block (OB) Zone:
Identified buying zone at $3,501 – $3,514.
Strong support + liquidity area → possible rebound point.
3. Moving Averages (EMA):
EMA 70 (3,508) and EMA 200 (3,464) both acting as dynamic support.
EMA alignment confirms bullish momentum.
4. Risk–Reward Setup:
Entry near OB Zone: $3,501 – $3,514
Stop-loss: below $3,500
Target: $3,590 (R:R ~ 1:3).
✅ Summary:
Gold is in a strong bullish trend 🚀. The OB Buying Zone aligns with EMA support, offering a low-risk long entry. As long as $3,500 holds, price likely pushes towards the target zone $3,589 – $3,590.
Gold surges to a record highGold surges to a record high: Risk aversion and a weakening economy collide
Amidst growing global economic uncertainty, gold has once again demonstrated its status as the king of safe havens. On Tuesday (September 2nd), spot gold prices surged over 1%, breaking through the $3,500 per ounce mark, reaching a new all-time high of $3,539.88 per ounce before closing at $3,533.40 per ounce. So far this year, gold has risen 34.5%, significantly outperforming other major asset classes. This trend is no accident, but rather a profound market response to the weakening US economy, volatile trade policies, and global geopolitical risks.
🔹 Fundamentals: Multiple positive factors are converging, providing solid support for gold prices.
1. US manufacturing continues to contract, increasing recession risks.
The latest data shows that while the US manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 48.7 in August, it remained in contraction territory (below the 50 mark), marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Manufacturing accounts for over 10% of the US economy, and its weakness has impacted employment, investment, and consumption. Particularly alarming is that some manufacturers have bluntly stated that the current environment is "worse than the Great Recession," blaming high tariffs for soaring costs, squeezing profits, and outsourcing capacity. Factory construction spending fell 6.7% year-on-year, further confirming subdued manufacturing confidence.
2. The legitimacy of tariff policies has been undermined, heightening market volatility.
A recent US appeals court ruling that the Trump administration's tariff measures are "unlawful" has temporarily suspended their implementation until October 14th, but this move has exacerbated policy uncertainty. Wall Street stocks tumbled, and the bond market also saw a sell-off. The 30-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, and global sovereign bond yields also climbed. The VIX (Volatility Index) rose, accelerating capital flows into gold for safe havens.
3. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthen, easing liquidity is in sight.
The market is betting on a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a cumulative reduction of 57 basis points expected for the year. A weak non-farm payroll data on Friday could further fuel expectations of a rate cut. While the US dollar index has rebounded in the short term, it has weakened overall this year, providing support for gold prices. Furthermore, gold ETF holdings increased to 977.68 tons, the highest level since August 2022, with continued institutional inflows solidifying the upward trend.
4. Global risks are intertwined, with concerns about stagflation emerging.
Eurozone inflation is hovering near central bank targets, the Bank of Japan's dovish stance is weighing on the yen, and UK fiscal concerns continue to simmer. Some market participants are even concerned about the risk of "stagflation"—a combination of economic stagnation and inflationary pressures. Gold has historically been an ideal hedge against such an environment.
🔹 Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Stable, Pullbacks Present Opportunities
From a technical perspective, gold has seen consecutive daily gains, demonstrating a typical bullish acceleration pattern. Yesterday, gold prices surged strongly above the 3472 level, breaking through 3500 before retracing to confirm the decline. They rose again in the early morning hours, closing at a higher level, demonstrating strong bullish control. Key support has now shifted to the 3510-3515 area, with short-term resistance above at 3550. A break above this level is expected to open up further potential.
Trading Strategy:
Main Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, avoid shorting against the trend.
Specific Plan:
Go long on gold pullbacks to the 3510-3516 area. Cover long positions if it reaches 3500-3505, with a stop-loss below 3493.
Target 3535-3550. Hold above 3570 after a break.
Risk Warning: Unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data could suppress gold prices in the short term, but the overall risk-averse outlook remains unchanged.
💡 Final Note: A "Golden Age"?
The current rise in gold prices is the result of a combination of economic weakness, policy volatility, and market anxiety. It's no longer a simple commodity; it's a vote of confidence for investors against uncertainty. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and escalating global risks, gold is likely to continue its strength. However, be wary of volatility caused by short-term data disruptions; sticking to a trend-following strategy is the best approach.
Evening focus: U.S. July factory orders monthly rate, JOLTs job vacancy data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may provide the market with new trading clues.
XAUUSD – Is Fibo 1.618 Strong Enough to End the Rally?XAUUSD – Is Fibo 1.618 Strong Enough to End the Rally?
Hello traders,
Gold has now posted six straight daily gains, showing the strong momentum behind this buying wave. This reflects the current sentiment in global markets, where gold continues to be treated as one of the most important safe-haven assets amid ongoing tariff discussions and a flood of news.
Part of this move has been driven by speculation around former US President Trump. While the news itself is unclear and not fully verified, it has been enough to influence global financial markets and push gold higher in recent sessions.
From a technical perspective, gold has already broken out of its daily trend channel and extended strongly higher. Right now, price is pausing around the Fibonacci 1.618 extension at 3536, which is acting as a dynamic resistance. If a bearish structure forms on the M15 timeframe, a short entry could be activated at this level.
Short scenario: Watch 3536 – if bearish confirmation appears on M15, short positions may be considered.
Buy scenario: The broader uptrend remains intact. A retest of the previous highs at 3500–3505 could offer a strong long entry for the medium to long term.
From a market psychology standpoint, this price area will be closely observed: buyers have already taken profits, while sellers have been partially liquidated. This means lower timeframes will be crucial for spotting clean entries.
This is my view on gold for today. Take it as reference, trade with discipline, and share your thoughts in the comments.
Gold on Fire – Will XAUUSD Keep Breaking Higher?Gold (XAUUSD) is showing unstoppable momentum this month. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakening and markets expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, investor sentiment is shifting away from holding cash. For Indian traders, this means one thing: Gold is the ultimate safe-haven play right now.
🔎 Macro View
FED rate cut expectations → Pressure on USD → Bullish for Gold.
Risk sentiment: Investors worldwide are running to gold for safety.
With strong global inflows, gold could continue to make new all-time highs (ATHs) in the coming months.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1/H4)
Gold has been forming sideway accumulation zones followed by strong breakouts. This shows volume and market flow still favor bulls.
BUY ZONE:
3482 – 3480
SL: 3474
TP: 3486 – 3490 – 3495 – 3500 – 3505 – 3510 – 3520 – 3530 – 3540 – ???
SELL ZONE (only for short-term counter-trade):
3540 – 3542
SL: 3548
TP: 3530 – 3520 – 3510 – 3500 – ???
At the moment, there are no strong signals for selling. Trend bias = BUY on dips until we see sentiment reversal.
⚠️ Risk Note
The market is highly volatile right now with sudden liquidity sweeps. Always stick to TP/SL discipline to protect your account.
💡 Conclusion:
Gold remains in a powerful bullish trend, supported by both macro and technical factors. For Indian traders, the best strategy is to stay aligned with the bulls — buy dips and ride the wave.
✅ Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily market plans and gold insights. Let’s capture this historic rally together!
XAUUSD Alert| Liquidity Grab or Trend Reversal?”XAUUSD Alert 🚨 | Liquidity Grab or Trend Reversal?”
Gold has recently pushed into the 3525 – 3550 rejection zone, a level that has historically acted as strong supply. After this extended bullish rally, price is now showing early signs of exhaustion. This could be a liquidity grab above resistance before the market corrects lower.
My expectation here is a short-term pullback. The first key area I’ll be watching is around 3450, which lines up with a smaller demand zone and could act as a temporary support. If buyers fail to defend that level, then I expect continuation toward the 3330 – 3320 zone, which is my final target and also a major higher-timeframe support point.
This level is very important because it was previously a strong base for accumulation, and if tested again, it could provide a potential long opportunity. However, if price breaks below 3320 decisively, it would open the door for a much deeper correction.
Overall, my short-term outlook is bearish retracement, but I’ll be closely watching how price reacts once we reach the deeper support levels.
XAUUSD Market Update - Sep 02, 2025XAUUSD Market Update
Current Price: $3,478
Gold is consolidating within a triangle pattern structure, approaching a decisive phase. The next move will depend on whether price sustains above support or confirms a false breakout.
🔼 Bullish Scenario
Sustained close above $3,500 will confirm strength.
Upside targets: $3,600 – $3,700.
Key support to hold: $3,420.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold $3,420 would signal a false breakout.
Downside targets: $3,265 – $3,200.
Extended weakness could lead towards $3,145.
✅ Recommendation
Short-term traders: Wait for a confirmed breakout above $3,500 before entering long positions.
Risk management: Keep stops below $3,420 to avoid false breakout traps.
Medium-term investors: Watch for retests near $3,265 – $3,200 as potential accumulation zones if bearish retracement occurs.
Xau USD Bullish Structure Xau USD is making Higher High pattern . From 3325 it's moving upward with Higher High pattern . It's moving up . From here I m seeing again 10 -15 point movement . It's bullish Structure at higher level . We can wait for retracement if you are safe player. Consult your financial advisor before making any position in stock market.
XAUUSD Daily Report | Dollar Weakness Fuels Bullish ContinuationXAUUSD Daily Report | Dollar Weakness Fuels Bullish Continuation
Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Report
🔎 Technical Outlook (Daily)
Daily structure is showing strong bullish momentum, with impulsive legs dominating over corrective phases.
Price action highlights continuation strength, as buyers maintain control with consistent liquidity grabs.
Trend rhythm remains intact, suggesting that intraday pullbacks are only corrective, not structural reversals.
🌍 Fundamental Outlook
US Dollar Weakness continues to fuel daily gold strength.
Monetary Policy Expectations of a dovish Fed keep yields under pressure, driving capital into gold.
Geopolitical Tensions & Inflation Concerns sustain gold’s role as a safe-haven hedge.
Central Bank Buying underpins demand, reinforcing institutional support.
Gold jumps to $3,490 as US court ruling invalidates Trump tariffRate Cut Expectations Boost Gold to $3490.
Dollar Index Retests 97.50.
US Court Invalidates Trump Tariff.
Global Central Banks Step Up Gold Purchases.
Markets Await Nonfarm Payrolls.
Fundamental drivers
With the beginning of 1st trading day of September, Gold witnessed strong buying rush as rising expectations of rate cut by Fed pushed Dollar index to 97.50 adding tailwinds to Gold rallying all the way to $3490, only $10 short of record $3500.
A US court ruling has invalidated trade tariffs imposed by the US president Donald Trump which increases political uncertainty as Trump's egoistic ambitions to control the Fed's independence creates deadlock.
The world watches SCO where India, Russia, China meet to discuss cooperation signalling a paradigm shift for dollar hegemony.
Macro risks and safe haven buying are boosting Gold rush for safety against global economic uncertainties.
Technical drivers
4 hourly 14 period RSI reading 80 reaches overbought territory and indicates presence of bulls and any pullback towards support zone is attracting buyers for further rally.
Price action shows sideways trades with consolidation below $3490 high and upcoming sessions may witness a retracement to local demand area $3454-$3447 where buying is likely to resume for another leg up.
If the metal breaks below $3454-$3447, look for further retracement towards $3436-$3428 below which next support sits at $3415-$3405 which aligns with horizontal breakout zone and turning point.
On the higher side, consolidated break above $3490 will signal retest of $3500 record high and a break above the psychological zone $3500 opens the way for bullish extension to triangular breakout targets $3545 followed by $3568.
Gold consolidates as new alliances emerge | Captain Vincent 1. News Wave 🌍
At the two-day summit in Shanghai, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping announced that India and China will become development partners rather than competitors.
The meeting also included Russia and four Central Asian nations, aiming to form a Southern Hemisphere bloc to counterbalance the US and the West.
👉 This signals a shift in geopolitical power, heightening concerns of global polarization → Gold continues to hold its safe-haven position.
2. Technical Analysis ⚙️
On the H2 chart, Gold has formed a Higher High after the recent strong breakout.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3511 – 3518): Strong resistance, potential for supply if price retests.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3450 – 3448): Confluence with FVG + Fibonacci 0.5/0.618, a key support for pullback entries.
Main Trend: Gold likely to move sideways between 3450 – 3510 before choosing a major direction.
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Reaction)
Entry: 3511 – 3508
SL: 3518
TP: 3505 → 3500 → 3497 → 349x → 348x
🏝️ Golden Harbor (BUY Zone – Strong Support)
Entry: 3450 – 3448
SL: 3440
TP: 3453 → 3456 → 3459 → 3462 → 346x
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
"Political news continues to stir the golden sea 🌊. Bears are waiting at Storm Breaker 3511, but the safe harbor remains Golden Harbor 3450 – 3448. In such unpredictable waters, prioritise short-term sells to flow with safe-haven demand, rather than recklessly facing the storm."
Gold’s Relentless Rally – A Lesson for Every TraderIn the past week, Gold surged strongly without any meaningful pullback, leaving many traders who were holding sell positions trapped. Without a retracement based on technical analysis, countless accounts went into heavy drawdown – some even facing complete wipeouts.
👉 What happened here?
Markets don’t always follow textbook technicals.
In volatile phases, traders often let losing trades run, ignoring their Stop-Loss.
This “hope mindset” is exactly what destroys capital faster than anything else.
💡 The key lesson for us all:
Risk management is not optional – it’s the foundation of survival in trading. A single trade without an SL may not seem dangerous, but over time, it’s the biggest reason traders lose their hard-earned money.
The market will always be unpredictable. But these are the moments where discipline and patience separate serious traders from those who get punished by the market.
🔑 MMFlow Insight for Indian Traders:
Markets don’t owe us profits. They reward only those who respect risk, stay calm, and stick to their trading rules. Protect your capital first – opportunities will always come.
👉 Stay disciplined. Respect your stop. Trade smart, trade safe.
XAU/USD 4H – Strong Breakout from ConsolidationGold has broken out above its descending resistance line and is now trading at $3,447, reaching fresh highs. The breakout also cleared the key resistance at $3,409, turning it into immediate support.
📈 Price is well above the 200 EMA ($3,357), confirming strong bullish momentum.
📊 Indicators:
RSI (14): At 81, showing overbought conditions — momentum is strong, but a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out.
ADX (14): At 34, indicating a strengthening trend.
🔺 Bullish Scenario: As long as Gold holds above $3,409, continuation towards $3,460 and beyond remains likely.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: A rejection at current highs could trigger a retest of $3,409 or even the EMA zone near $3,357.
⚡ Momentum favors the bulls, but caution is warranted with RSI in overbought territory.
XAU/USD – Gold Targets 3,440 USDHello traders, gold has successfully broken through the key resistance at 3,400 USD and is now approaching the 3,420 USD zone. A decisive move above this level could open the way toward 3,440 USD. On the downside, the 3,375–3,380 USD support range remains effective, helping the bullish structure to hold.
From the macro side, US Q2 GDP grew by 3.3%, beating forecasts and confirming a solid economic recovery. Yet, this also fuels inflation concerns, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Additionally, the upcoming PCE data for August is expected to rise, limiting the chances of early Fed rate cuts, which continues to support gold prices.
What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts below.
XAU/USD – Short-Term Structure & Key ZonesXAU/USD – Short-Term Structure & Key Zones
✨ Technical Outlook
✅ Breakout Confirmed: Price broke out of the downward channel and retested 3370 as new support.
📈 Momentum: Higher lows forming → buyers in control.
🎯 Upside target: 3425–3450 (major resistance zone).
⚠️ Risk: Failure at 3450 may trigger retracement back toward 3370 / 3320.
🌍 Fundamental Drivers
💵 USD Weakness: Market pricing in softer Fed stance → supports Gold.
🏦 Yields Stable: Lower real yields = bullish for non-yielding assets like Gold.
📉 Global Risk Factors: Central bank accumulation & geopolitical uncertainty continue to add safe-haven demand.
📌 Trading Plan (Pro View)
As long as price holds above 3370, bias remains bullish.
Watch for rejection signals near 3450 → potential short setup.
Captain Vincent | Gold holds 3400, breakout or pullback next?” FED turns dovish, Gold challenges a new Storm Breaker
1. News Wave 🌍
FED – Waller: “Tariffs are a kind of tax and do not increase inflation. I’m back with the ‘transitory team’ on inflation.”
👉 A clear dovish hint supporting a 25bps rate cut in September, with potential for 1–2 more cuts in the next 3–6 months.
US Senate: Hearing scheduled on Sept 4th for FED nominee S. Miran → Political–monetary spotlight.
Tonight: Market awaits PCE data, FED’s preferred inflation measure.
➡️ Summary: FED leaning dovish = mid-term bullish for Gold.
But short-term, Gold faces profit-taking pressure near resistance.
2. Technical Outlook ⚙️
On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed bullish BOS and crossed above 3,400.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3375 – 3373): Large volume accumulation, aligned with FVG → Attractive entry if price pulls back.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3432 – 343x): At old ATH zone, high probability of supply pressure if tested.
Key Levels:
3,375 → Critical support “anchor”.
3,438 → Resistance target if bullish momentum continues.
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY Zone – Priority)
Entry: 3375 – 3373
SL: 3365
TP: 3378 → 3381 → 3384 → 3387 → 33xx
🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Zone – Old ATH Reaction)
Entry: 3432 – 343x
SL: 3442
TP: 3428 → 3425 → 3423 → 3420 → 33xx
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
"The Gold ship has sailed past 3400, but Storm Breaker 🌊 at 343x remains a tough challenge. If corrective waves appear, patiently wait at Golden Harbor 🏝️ to board for a more bullish September journey."
Gold 29/08: Smart Money Looks at 3444 or 3395 LevelsMarket Context (SMC View):
Gold faced rejection from the 3423 liquidity zone and is now pulling back.
Demand is seen near 3397–3395, which can give a bounce if price tests it.
Premium supply zones above 3422 and 3442 are good areas to look for selling opportunities.
🔼 BUY SCENARIO
Buy Zone: 3397 – 3395
Stop Loss: 3389
Targets: 3405 → 3415 → 3425
🔽 SELL SCENARIO 1 (Price Action)
Sell Zone: 3422 – 3424
Stop Loss: 3430
Targets: 3412 → 3400
🔽 SELL SCENARIO 2 (Swing)
Sell Zone: 3442 – 3444
Stop Loss: 3452
Targets: 3425 → 3412 → 3400
📌 Conclusion & Notes
Bias: Buy near 3397–3395, then watch for possible liquidity grabs at 3422–3424 or a bigger sweep near 3442–3444 to go short.
Key Levels: 3422–3424 is the first intraday supply zone, while 3442–3444 is the major swing sell zone.
Tip: Wait for rejection candles or confirmation before selling.
Risk: Gold is very volatile; use strict stop losses and manage capital carefully.
Gold Trading Scenario – Friday OutlookGold Trading Scenario – Friday Outlook
Hello traders,
Fridays are often challenging for forex traders. As the week closes, bankers wrap up their positions, creating unpredictable market moves. This is especially tricky for those who rely on timing-based strategies, so it’s important to watch the smaller fluctuations closely today.
Looking at the current gold structure, the uptrend remains intact. Buying pressure is strong enough to push towards the next projected levels. Technical indicators continue to support a bullish view, with MACD showing steady momentum as both volume and moving averages remain positive.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold is moving in **wave 5**, which is typically an extended wave. This allows us to maintain a bullish outlook unless price breaks below **3386** and confirms with at least one candle close on the M15 timeframe or higher. In that case, the scenario would be invalidated. Until then, buying around this level with a stop-loss just below the key support zone (about 1 dollar lower) remains the preferred approach.
Selling opportunities are not yet ideal, but for those looking at short setups, the **3450 zone** should be monitored as a major resistance. In the shorter term, **3430** can act as a reaction level for temporary sells.
Fridays also tend to bring more news-driven traps, so be extra cautious. It’s a day that can really test less experienced traders.
This is my view for today’s session – use it as reference, and trade with discipline.
---
Steady Climb: Gold Confirms Breakout, Support Shifts to 3400We have seen impressive strength on gold with a slow but steady breakout above 3400, confirming a bullish tone in the market. Price has also cleared the previous swing high near 3410, turning this zone into fresh support (3400–3410). Alongside this, the rising trendline support (black line) continues to guide the uptrend, adding confidence to the move.
From a price action perspective, this breakout looks healthy and signals that buyers are gaining control. The next big level to watch is the 3450 zone, which stands as the key breakout area for a larger move higher. On the flip side, as long as 3400–3410 holds, the bullish outlook remains intact.
With both the monthly and weekly closing happening today, the candle close will be crucial in setting the tone for the next leg. A strong close above 3410 would further validate the bullish breakout, while any failure to hold above support could bring some profit-taking. For now, the overall structure favors the bulls.
Gold Holds Uptrend – Eyes on 3.395 BreakHello everyone,
Observing the latest chart, gold’s uptrend remains firmly in place. The price moves consistently above the Ichimoku cloud, while the forward cloud thickens and tilts slightly upward, forming a supportive cushion for the next leg higher. Below, the recently formed FVG demand zone at 3.372–3.380 has been lightly tested multiple times and rebounded, showing solid absorption by buyers. Conversely, above, the thin FVG supply around 3.395–3.405 acts as the “gate” for the market to enter a new upward leg.
Volume data also reinforces the bullish scenario: green candles often come with higher volumes than red ones, especially after the breakout on 27–28/8. The “higher highs – higher lows” structure since the 22/8 rebound indicates buyers remain in control.
Moreover, news factors are creating a tailwind. US tariff tightening, temporary halts on international mail in several countries, and supply shortage risks have sparked inflation and supply chain concerns, supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Trend-following strategy: prefer buying while price holds above 3.372–3.380 (both FVG zone and Ichimoku cloud edge), targeting 3.413 first, then 3.433. This scenario fails if price closes below 3.360, losing the cloud cushion and breaking the recent low. The 3.395–3.405 zone is a key confirmation: a clean breakout here often leads to a smoother, stronger upward move.
Do you think gold has enough strength to break 3.395 in the coming sessions?
XAU/USDThis XAU/USD setup is a sell trade, highlighting a bearish short-term outlook on gold. The entry price is 3414, with a stop-loss at 3423 and an exit price at 3396. This trade seeks to capture an 18-point profit while risking 9 points, maintaining a balanced 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.
Selling at 3414 suggests the trader expects downward pressure, possibly triggered by strength in the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, or profit-booking after recent gains. The exit at 3396 is strategically placed near a support area where buyers might re-enter, making it a logical profit-taking level. The stop-loss at 3423 limits potential losses if bullish momentum resumes, ensuring disciplined risk management. This setup is ideal for short-term traders looking to ride intraday weakness.