DOW JONES PREDICTIONWhy analysis of DJI?
It is mostly seen that Indian markets follow US markets as FII infuse lot of investment in our markets. However there psychology is to follow the trend in US markets. However it is not entirely true as Indian markets do spring to life and at times do there own trajectories. eg In end Sep DJI touched its pre Covid levels of 28700, however Indian markets were at 15300 much away from pre COVID levels of 12400.
However the similarities of market structures can't be ignored, both of the indexes had a similar structures of HH/HL & LL/LH. In a globalised world the interconnected things can be easily seen. Whats next?
On monthly chart DJI has formed a flag pattern with two point touch at the bottom of flag around 31500.
Twin Trendline Concept
First Trendline. On weekly charts, following twin trendline and four point touch concept is elucidated on the chart. The first trendline clearly shows touch points at apr 22, aug 22 & oct 22. Thereafter at fourth touch point Nov 22 there was a breakout seen and DJI made a high of 34800. The first trendline also has acted as support twice in Dec22 and mar 23.
Second Trendline. The touch points occurred at 34800 in Dec 22, 34300 Feb 23 & going by the geometry the fourth touch Pont should happen in Apr 23 at 34000 levels.
This will entail a 2200 point move from current 32717 to 34000 levels. Of course this will be not a straight move but it will have some zigzags.
Price action.
Montly charts - Flag patterns
Weekly Charts - Two consecutive Green Candles
daily charts - W structure which is a bullish structure is underway.
Future Likelyhoods. There may be reaction at fourth touchpoint and thereafter in May/Jun there will be breakout to touch the top of box 37200.
RSI analysis. On monthly charts RSI is above 50 levels, on weekly charts it is 48 and daily charts at 51. RSi is supporting an upmove.
Overall Analysis. DJi should touch 34000 levels based on price action, price pattern, twin trendline concept and RSI. However any crisis emerging at geo-political levels at economic or military will negate this hypotheses and DJI may head southwards.
Modelling and simulation are important to predict the future movements. However they will always remain prediction with no certainties. Markets like GOD have their own ways which are difficult to fathom. But human endeavour must continue for TOMMOROW is always ANOTHER DAY!
Views Welcome.
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