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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY: achieved impressive gainsDear friends, the Japanese yen has been trading negatively against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with the USD/JPY pair reaching its highest level in two weeks around the 144.85 area during the Asian trading session. At the time of writing, the price is trading at 144.70, indicating that USDJPY has previously escaped a prolonged downward channel and is stabilizing with a good recovery trend on the 12-hour timeframe. With the US dollar showing signs of a rebound, the bullish camp continues to push prices higher, with a target of 147.3 being highlighted. From an analytical perspective, I still expect prices to increase further using the breakout trading method. Using the excellent tool from Tradingview, Fibonacci suggests that prices may retreat to the 0.5 and 0.618 levels to correct the previous strong upward momentum before any catalyst causes prices to bounce back. A breakthrough above 144.90 will accelerate the UJ price to 147.34. Wishing you successful and lucky trades!
Long
by RKarina
USDJPY defends falling wedge breakout above 143.00USDJPY remains dicey around 143.30 as traders await the key US employment clues early Thursday, after rising in the last two consecutive days. In doing so, the Yen pair floats above the 100-SMA while keeping the early week’s confirmation of a bullish chart formation, namely the falling wedge. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI and cautious mood ahead of the key US data could have stopped the pair buyers. However, the falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals join the 100-SMA breakout to suggest the quote’s further advances toward the mid-December swing high of around 145.00. Following that, the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding the 145.50 will be the last defense of the pair bears before giving to the bull, who in turn could aim for November’s bottom of nearly 146.70. Meanwhile, intraday selling can be witnessed on a downside break of the 100-SMA, close to the 143.00 threshold. In that case, the aforementioned wedge’s top line, around 141.20, will gain the USDJPY seller’s attention. Following that, the recent bottom of 140.25, the 140.00 psychological magnet and the wedge’s bottom line near 139.90 will act as the final stops for the bears before allowing them to aim for the late July swing low of around 138.00. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to reverse the late 2023 fall but the recovery needs validation from the US data and the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
USD/JPY Holds Positive Ground Above 142.00, Eyes on US PMI, FOMC USD/JPY trades in positive territory for two straight days on Wednesday. The US final Manufacturing PMI for December came in weaker than expected, easing from 48.2 to 47.9. BOJ’s Ueda said that the possibility of the BoJ sustainably achieving the inflation target seems to be gradually rising. Investors await the final US ISM Manufacturing PMI report and the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes, due later on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair edges higher above the 142.00 mark during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The rebound of US Dollar (USD) lends some support to the pair. Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December, due later on Wednesday, which is expected to show an increase to 47.1 from 46.7 in the previous reading. USD/JPY currently trades near 142.10, gaining 0.10% on the day. The US final Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 47.9 versus 48.2 prior, lower than the expectation. The output fell at the fastest rate for six months as the recent order book decline intensified. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish stance after its December meeting dragged the USD lower across the board. However, the strength in the US economy might limit the greenback’s downside. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted the US economy to grow by 1.5% in 2024, compared to 1.2% for the eurozone and 4.2% for China. Market players will closely watch the chance that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely consider changing its monetary policy. The BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on December 25, 2023, that the possibility of the central bank achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably and stably seems to be gradually rising. Later on Wednesday, the final US ISM Manufacturing PMI report and the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes will be released. The Japanese Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI will be due on Thursday. Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI and Consumer Confidence will be due on Friday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be a closely watched event and could keep a clear direction for the USD/JPY pair.
by Claramellorforex
USDJPY stays pressured toward 141.00 on last trading day of 2023USDJPY fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a five-month low amid sluggish markets on the final trading day of 2023. In doing so, the Yen pair extends the mid-week pullback from 200-SMA even as the oversold RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals challenge bears. Also putting a floor under the risk-barometer pair is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-November upside, as well as May’s peak, surrounding 140.80. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading below 140.80 makes it vulnerable to drop toward a broad horizontal support zone comprising levels marked since early March, between 137.90-70. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce could aim for the 200-SMA level of 143.00 whereas a seven-week-old descending trend line, close to 143.40 at the latest, will test the USDJPY buyers afterwards. Should the Yen pair manage to defend the recovery moves past 143.40, June’s peak of around 145.10 will be on the bull’s radar. Following that, a gradual run-up toward 148.00 and the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY pair appears bearish even if a corrective bounce appears imminent.
by MTradingGlobal
USD/JPY Steady, BoJ Releases Summary of OpinionsBoJ Summary of Opinion highlights split over shift in policy The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.54, up 0.12%. The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the December meeting was released earlier today. That meeting was somewhat of a disappointment to the markets, as there were expectations of a move after senior BoJ members hinted prior to the meeting that the Bank was looking to lift interest rates out of negative territory. In the end, the BoJ stayed put and maintained policy settings. The summary highlighted the split amongst board members regarding the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. One member stated that the timing of normalizing policy was “getting closer” but another member said that the BoJ could wait until after wage talks next spring. The internal debate revolves around the key question as to when inflation will become sustainable at the 2% target. Governor Ueda has argued that wage growth must increase before inflation is sustainable and that the current high rate of inflation is due to cost-push factors. This means that national wage talks in April will play a key role in determining the BoJ’s rate policy. The takeaway from the summary is that an exit from ultra-loose policy is a question of when rather than if, and that there are differences of opinion within the central bank as to the timing of a shift in policy. We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it’s a safe bet that a shift in policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. The BoJ holds its next meeting on January 22-23. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 142.55. Above, there is resistance at 142.78 There is support at 142.34 and 142.11
by Claramellorforex
USDJPY bulls prod 200-EMA resistance after BoJ status quoUSDJPY prints a three-day uptrend while extending the previous week’s recovery from the lowest level since late July after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) defends the current monetary policy. In doing so, the Japanese central bank rules out concerns surrounding its gradual exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy amid a recent increase in inflation. With this, the Yen pair pokes the 200-EMA hurdle, extending recovery from a five-month-old horizontal support. The rebound also justifies the RSI (14) line’s U-turn from the oversold territory, which in turn suggests the quote’s further run-up beyond the key EMA surrounding 143.80. However, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-November, close to 145.30 by the press time, will challenge further advances. In a case where the buyers keep reins past 145.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the monthly high near 148.35 and then toward the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, growing chatters about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts in early 2024 could join the downbeat yields to weigh on the USDJPY pair, which in turn highlights the aforementioned horizontal support region of around 141.50-142.00. Should the Yen pair sellers manage to break the 141.50 support, it can quickly drop to the 140.00 psychological magnet before highlighting July’s low of 137.23 as the key support. Following that, the pair’s bearish trajectory towards the yearly bottom of 127.20 appears a favorite for the bears. Overall, USDJPY regains upside momentum but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA prods USDJPY’s bounce off 4.5-month lowUSDJPY prints mild gains around 142.00 to snap a three-day losing streak at the lowest level since late July. In doing so, the Yen pair portrays a corrective bounce amid oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the bearish MACD signals and the 200-SMA hurdle, at 142.50 by the press time, challenge the quote’s recovery. Even if the pair manages to cross the 142.50 hurdle, a 5.5-month-long horizontal resistance line and a falling trend line from mid-November will test the buyers around 144.00 and 145.85 in that order. It’s worth noting that the previous support line stretched from March 24, surrounding 147.60, acts as the final defense of the Yen pair sellers. Meanwhile, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-November upside, near 140.85, acts as an immediate downside support for the USDJPY pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of around 138.20 to prod the Yen pair sellers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 138.20, July’s bottom of 137.23 appears the final battleground for the bulls before surrendering their weapons to the sellers. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to remain bearish even if the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY sellers attack 147.00 to justify corrective pullbackUSDJPY struggles to defend the three-week losing streak as the bottom line of a bullish trend channel, stretched from late March, joins the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to restrict the quote’s immediate downside near the 147.00 threshold. Even if the quote breaks the 147.00 support, a convergence of the five-month-old previous resistance and the 200-day EMA, around 143.80 by the press time, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, the Yen pair’s fall toward the August monthly low near 141.50 and then to the 140.00 round figure, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the receding bearish power of the MACD and the nearly oversold RSI (14) line join the 147.00 support to challenge the USDJPY bears. That said, the pair’s recovery, however, needs validation from the 50-EMA level of around 148.60. Should the quote manage to remain firmer, the 150.00 psychological magnet will precede the previous monthly high of 151.90 to act as the final test for the pair buyers. It’s worth noting that the Yen pair’s successful trading above 151.90 enables the bulls to aim for the top-line of the previously-stated channel’s top line, surrounding 154.00. Overall, the USDJPY pair portrays bearish consolidation and may witness a bounce in prices unless the quote stays beyond the 147.00 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
USD/JPY UPDATEUSD/JPY, we had a UJ rejecting a major resistance area around 151.95 where had strong sellers previously. overall on out 1D-TF & Weekly-TF we are currently bullish, price is still holding above our EMA which shows us that buyers are still in control longterm, however on our lower TF, like 1H,4H, etc we can see sellers are in control. We have strong daily support around , 143.14 support area, also we have our EMA just below which we might see buying opportunities, pay attention to that area as we may see buyers take control to take price higher longterm
by affinitymarkets12