DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
"Update on the upcoming before the Fed - interest rate cutsMany people have asked me about my view on how the Fed's interest rate cuts will impact the market.
I have a few thoughts on this, but please note that these are just my personal opinions and should not be considered as trading recommendations!
In the chart, I’m displaying two lines:
- Red: Federal Funds Rate
- Blue: Unemployment Rate
If you look back at history, each time the Fed cuts rates, it typically coincides with economic troubles, although the signs may not be immediately apparent in the early stages.
Initially, Powell’s objective was to combat inflation and achieve a soft landing, but in his most recent speeches, the focus has shifted to stabilizing the economy. This indicates a change in the Fed's assessment of the economic situation, which concerns me as it suggests that we could be heading towards a recession.
History supports this perspective, as the unemployment rate is one of the clearest indicators of recession. Other accompanying metrics, such as GDP, also matter, but during this period, the CPI holds less value for assessing the economic landscape.
In my opinion, it’s just a matter of when the recession will occur. We’ll need to wait for a few key indicators over the next two to three months.
This article is meant for everyone to evaluate the current economic situation. The next article will update on asset classes like Gold, BTC, and stocks, and how they might perform during a recession."
Let me know if you need further assistance!
Dollar IndexHello and welcome to this analysis
With FED all set to start the rate cut cycle from today's FOMC meet, DXY is expected to enter the potential reversal zone (PRZ) of not one but two bullish Harmonic patterns, namely, bullish AB=CD and bullish Crab, likely forming a triple bottom in the weekly time frame.
The PRZ is between 100 - 99.60 while the patterns would be considered invalid below 99.50, for a possible bounce (if not reversal) till 103.
When will it enter the PRZ by? Will depend totally on hawkish/dovish, FED Chairman Jeremy Powell is in his statement today.
Regards
DXY Dollar Index Trade Setup - The Dollar Index is currently trading at 100.691
- The Dollar Index looks all set to break below the important liquidity area
- We can see an either side's Liquidity grab cause of the FOMC
- Watch out for the FOMC closely as market likely shows a direction before that
DXY (US Dollar Index) levelsDXY (US Dollar Index)
Support Levels:
Fibonacci Level: 92.50 (23.6% Fibonacci
retracement of the 2022-2023 rally)
Trend Line: 92.20 (the lower end of the ascending
trend channel)
Psychological Level: 92.00 (a significant round
number)
Resistance Levels:
Fibonacci Level: 94.50 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of the 2022-2023 rally)
Trend Line: 94.80 (the upper end of the ascending
trend channel)
Psychological Level: 95.00 (another significant
round number)
Dollar weakness continuesDXY CMP 100.939
Elliott- thats a zig zag corrective pattern. The C leg which is very fast and steep is underway.
Fibs- Two tgts one at 96 and the other at 93. We will look at our indicators at these zones for reversal.
Channel - The lower support channel is around the 93 fib support.
MA-the longer Ma support is around the 93 /89 zone. So that zone is a high prob reveral zone.
Conclusion - weakness in dollar means good for the emerging equity mkts. Good for commodities and of course precious metals. So focus on them.
DXYDXY cmp 101.759
this is a monthly chart of DXY,
looking at the chart , this is the wave counts comes to me..
DXY have completed its 5 waves, wave A and most probably wave B
and is ready to move towards the down targets as marked with green line...
those are targets 1 and 2 ...
if this wave B is not over... it can move up towards upward target
marked by red line ..(that is if at all wave B is not completed),
and after completing wave B , it would go and touch downward levels..
ONLY and ONLY after that I believe..
we would resume up trend ...
Just a View!
Vedng!!
Disclaimer: Chart is for study purpose only!!!
CPI AND PPI NEW VIEW FOR MAJOR PAIRMy view for the coming news , it not a signals , just my point of view .
DXY 1D Price Delivery AnalysisThe Dollar Index is currently trading at 101.8$
- NFP helped the dollar to climb higher last week
- We saw a major sell off in the stock markets too
- Watch out for the 2 paths drawn we might see dry spells and lack of action before CPI
- IMO we are going to fill the FVG before CPI and then post the CPI publication we will pierce the lows and make new lows
- If you see the CPI coming above estimates and we will surely run up more higher
DXY_4HEverything is mentioned on Charts.
Wish you Happy & safe Trading.
Trade as per your own RISK
Please Note:
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please consult your financial advisor before Trading or Investing.
I'm not responsible for any kinds of your Profits & Losses.
#DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)Dollar index is done with upside. Looking good for a tgt of 105.360 in coming days. Chart is self-explanatory.
DXY move down !!The dollar turned lower and sterling rose to its highest in more than two years on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave an unambiguous signal that the long anticipated U.S. interest rate cut would come next month.
Dollar Index (DXY) 2024-2025 Elliottwave Cycle As shown in the chart from Years 2008 to 2022 5 wave cycle from $71 to $115 is completed.
After five waves there is an ABC correction.
Here we can see five impulse waves inside the "A" wave so it may Zig-Zag ABC Correction. We know Zig-zag correction's "C" wave is fast and deep.
Forecast of "C" wave 123.6%(A) is near $89 &
161.8%(A) is near $85. So the DXY may Bear up to $89 or $85.
DXY Possibly To Reverse Soon#DXY If Supports Thus Weekly Moving Average Zone Probably We Will Eye some Reversal From Here
DXY : Strong DownHello Traders,
📈 DXY chart review : DXY ~ USD index strength
You can see, my analysis before here :
And Now, I still recommend it will down more
- H4 chart is downtrend, price is bellow 3EMA
- H1 is prepair make a H&S
🎯In my trading opinion:
- I recommend that it will move down continuously
📚 Remember that: Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Follow me to update lastest plan for any trades !
Thank you and Good luck!
DXY : Maybe move downHello Traders,
📈 DXY chart review :
DXY ~ USD index strength
- H4 chart is downtrend, price is bellow 3EMA
- H1 is prepair make a H&S
🎯In my trading opinion:
- I recommend that it will move down continuously
📚 Remember that: Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Follow me to update lastest plan for any trades !
Thank you and Good luck!
DXY Down trend on D1.US economic indicators are showing signs of worsening in recent months. Is this a factor that will cause the FED to accelerate the process of lowering interest rates to support the economy?
DXY 1 D - ANALYSIS 10 AUG 2024
Definition: Explain what the DXY (US Dollar Index) is and how it measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies.
Importance: Highlight why the DXY is a crucial indicator for forex traders, investors, and economists.
2. Market Analysis
Current Trends: Present recent trends in the DXY, including historical data and recent movements.
Technical Analysis: Use charts and technical indicators to analyze patterns that suggest a potential decline in the DXY. Include tools like moving averages, RSI, MACD, and support/resistance levels.
3. Economic Indicators
Impact of Economic Data: Discuss how economic data (like GDP growth, employment figures, and inflation rates) affects the DXY.
Federal Reserve Policies: Explain how interest rate changes and monetary policy from the Federal Reserve influence the DXY.
4. Global Factors
Geopolitical Events: Examine how global geopolitical events, such as trade wars, political instability, or international conflicts, can impact the DXY.
Comparative Currencies: Compare the US dollar’s performance with other major currencies like the Euro, Yen, or Pound.
5. Risk Management
Risk Factors: Outline potential risks involved in selling the DXY, including unexpected economic announcements or geopolitical events.
Strategies: Offer strategies for managing risk when betting against the DXY, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying investments.
6. Case Studies
Historical Examples: Provide case studies or historical examples where selling the DXY proved profitable or unprofitable. Analyze these cases to offer insights into current market conditions.
7. Expert Opinions
Interviews: Feature insights from financial analysts, economists, or trading experts who can provide professional opinions on the DXY’s future.
Market Sentiment: Summarize current market sentiment and how it aligns with or contrasts against your position on selling the DXY.
8. Actionable Insights
Investment Strategies: Suggest specific trading strategies for those interested in selling the DXY, such as short selling, options trading, or futures contracts.
Tools and Resources: Recommend tools, platforms, or resources that traders can use to track DXY movements and execute trades.
9. Conclusion
Summary: Recap the key points discussed and reinforce why selling the DXY could be a profitable strategy.
Charts and Graphs: Use visual aids to illustrate trends, technical analyses, and economic impacts.
Infographics: Create infographics to simplify complex information and make it more accessible.
Videos/Webinars: Host video analyses or webinars to provide a dynamic and engaging way to discuss DXY selling strategies.
The Dollar bear market is hereAn impulsive move lower in the dollar index is underway. We are at a critical support from previous bottoms at 102.10. This trendline is the lower end of a triangle pattern below which the dollar bear market gets more credible and broader acceptance. Wave-wise, wave 3 unfolds, and only wave iv of 3 develops. Many more legs lower will show up with a lot of subdivisions.
DXYI see this for DXY, supporting my bias for EU and other pairs against the USD. Will se how this week goes. Lots of fundamentals and bad situations around the world. Stay safe, trade well and God Bless you!
T
US junk bonds could be best bet in fixed income in H2Nasdaq slides >2%, S&P 500 falls >1%, Dow rises modestly
Staples lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Tech weakest group
Dollar, gold, bitcoin dip; crude rallies >2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.16%US junk bonds could be best bet in fixed income in H2
Dollar weakness aheadDXY CMP 104.087
In continuation of my analysis of CRB Index... I stated that CRB index is bullish and dollar is weak. Here is a chart that shows that the dollar Index is all set to fall.
