INDIAVIX trade ideas
INDIA VIX AT MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL, CAUTION FOR CRASH?INDIA VIX at 18.31.At the verge of cup&handle as well as Range breakout if cross 19.39. Then next level is 29(top blue line). this level occurred 0n 11th Mar,2020 precipitating in March,2020 market crash. Now if it takes resistance at 18.86( and RSI (2) at over bought level) comes down , then relief. If breakout occurs and reaches 29,then we may be close to market top and possible big correction in the offing
India Vix analysis for shorting strikesIndia vix is an volatility index of an nifty 50
- India Vix shows the expected volatility for next one year
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- currently india vixis at 15.62 (IST 12:02 PM)
-market is raising but volatility is falling
- sudden drop or rise will increases the volatility/vix otherwise Vix will be flat
🛑 what is 15.62means ?
- well, it is expected volatility for next one from today it means nifty can go up by +15.62 % or it may can go down by - 15.62% (for next one year)
- it doesn't include any global sentiment or news
-now we can calculate expected volatility for next one month and even we can calculate for next day also
- Question is what is the use from it ?
- well, it tells us that it may can stays in between mine range when market is choppy / range bound
- and it will gives us shorting strikes to do the short strangle
-then if you needed range for next one month then , use this formula
Vix /sqrt (12) = x%
where - 12 is number of month ( standard vix is calculated for one year )
for ex, vix = 15.62 , sqrt(12) = 3.46
15.62/3.46 = 4.5 %
means from today's market close to next one month nifty can go up by +4.5% or it may can go down by -4.5% .
using this we can do short strangle for one month as we know as expiry appears premium will fall , or bcz of time decay / theta
caution it doesn't include any global , investors sentiment
- if you needed tp calculate for next day
or in other words
if you needed short strangle strikes for next day use this formula
- Vix /sqrt(365) = Y%
where 365 is number of days in one year
and nifty can go up +Y% or it may can go down by -Y%
by using above and below strikes we can do short strangle (short above strike CE and Short below strike PE)
i hope that it will help a lot , if you like it do follow for more
INDIAVIX Breaking out of Resistance?INDIAVIX has breached its support and resistance zone of 18. If this breakout is real, VIX may turn toward the 18-25 zone which would put bearish pressure on Indian equities and indices. We will find out in coming days whether this breakout is real or if it is a fake out.
India Vix is rising up and moving averages convergingMoving averages 20,50,100,200 have converged upwards and 20 EMA has gone above 50 EMA and now touching 100 EMA. markets usually see a correction when volatility increases beyond 24 VIX and 20 EMA is above all other EMA. we have to wait and see if that happens in the next 2-3 weeks.
India Vix- Is it a triple bottom or notIndia Vix in the support range and in the process of forming a triple bottom on Monthly chart. Any 2 closing above 17 would lead to a correction while any close below 10.9 would confirm firm grip of bulls on the market and it will move forward like it is doing presently.
Personally i m very cautious now.
Discl- Just pure analysis of the chart and no recommendation to buy or sell anything here.
Volatile VIXVIX volatility can be in broader range of 11-25 for long period of time. 2017-2020 saw such range bound movement. 2020 was one of event for ViX . However, 11-12 is the bottom of slope. VIX if falls to this level then caution should be taken in option selling and short term trading positions. ViX can remain in 11-16 for a longer period of time. So predicting top on the basis of VIX looks futile exercise.
INDIAVIX at Crucial SupportINDIAVIX has reached its almost year-long support on the Daily chart. Do we see further cooling off in VIX, translating to further rise in Nifty? Or do we see a mean reversion in VIX leading to fall in Nifty from its life-highs? We will be watching out for sure.
Note: We published on 7 Mar when VIX reached the top of this resistance zone and it has successfully cooled off since then (link attached).
VIX ANALYSISA head and shoulder kind of pattern can be seen on the weekly charts of INDIA VIX, suggesting downward trend of INDIA VIX. (OPEN THE CHART FOR DETAILED VIEW)
INDIA VIX is a kind of indicator/index that measures volatility in the markets. Lower/Degrading VIX shows bull run in the markets. Higher/Upgrading VIX suggests bear run in the markets.
According to the weekly charts, a head and shoulder type of pattern can be seen. Head and shoulder pattern suggests downward trend in the market.
This shows that there are high chances of a good bull run in coming weeks. Hence, one can look for buying opportunities.
Remember, flat charts of VIX shows indecisive markets, and flat markets. Hence, one needs to be really stock-specific if there is a flat trend on INDIA VIX charts.
Thanks
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