INDIAVIX trade ideas
India VIXAs expected it has declined to 50 from its highs. It has very strong support between 47-50. Sustaining below these levels could take it all the way back to 30-20, which in turn would be good for equities as a falling vix gets stability which leads to a calm recovery in terms of both PRICE & TIME, so what is being perceived a quick bear rally could turn out to be a much more stable bounce back attempt. On the other hand, a reversal from here sees resistance near 65 and then a major one at 75. Anything above that would lead to mayhem once again.
Revised INDIAVIX projectionIn the Support Zone - As long as it doesn't break below 43-50 zone, there's a fair chance of one more spike to 90+ levels.
India VixIf it gives an hourly close below 70 then there would a v strong likelihood of further cooling till 50 where it has an alignment of support from Monthly down to Hourly. This in turn would get some steadiness to markets. Less of these wild intraday swings and lower probabilities of large daily candles. Near 50 it could then resume its upward journey. Whether this is going to be the CALM before the (next) storm or VIX is done with its carnage would be reviewed near about 50.
INDIA VIX DETAILED HARMONIC MATHEMATICS 71.49?FOLLOW
I WILL UPDATE AFTER IT REACHES PEAK
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
NIFTY and BANKNIFTY for next few daysWhen did we last saw this- Index was down but gold also went down. Oil was down but auto sales and airline companies were also down and so were all industries which use other chemical raw material from crude like paints. There is a disease in the air and yet pharma companies and hospital shares are also down. Rupee is down (as compared to USD) and yet IT companies are not up!
This is different. This is not a normal slowdown or recession. This is insane panic. And hence these times are not for traders. They in fact are best times for investors with loads of money who can patiently start investing in some great companies,one by one.
Tonight Dow Jones in up- but tomorrow morning Dow futures could be down which in turn would guide Asian markets and SGX Nifty to open gap down which then would prompt us to open gap down. So we can't know what will happen tomorrow and also the extent of swing- because Nifty and Banknifty are swinging +/- 2% around mid point. And that is why I have attached INDIA VIX chart , pour volatility index. Look at the levels. 62.92 is much more than what we saw during May 2009 (world recession time due to US sub-prime crisis). So let trading be led to rest for next few days till some common sense prevails. Right now, there are no levels, because there are no supports and no resistances- its just free fall.
India VIXFor any reversal/rally to sustain, VIX needs to cool down. For now sustaining below 39 would be the 1st confirmation for a pullback to 30 then 25. With Q4 Advance Tax noes coming in from Monday, we would be seeing stock specific reactions going forward unlike the systematic fall we have been witnessing since FEB. So a word of caution, not every Inky Pinky Ponky will give returns, be very selective, from here once again domestic triggers will play a vital role.
Please be carefulPlease be careful because short covering can come from here in the market. because there is a divergence formation in India vix chart.
My estimate for #INDIAVIX would be .. Expecting 21-23 zone to hold for a while at least but the move is quite fierce.
Next being 27-30. Chances are high that VIX can reach till here.
36 is a complete outlier case right now.
India VIXAlmost every year India VIX tends to test the lower end of its range and reverses sharply in JAN. A trigger for this usually is the Annual Budget (Vix rising as a lead up to the event). It appears that the same scenario might be repeated in 2020. However, this time we have a global trigger as well which could fuel the rise in VIX (as and when it happens) Gold & Silver breakout and USD/INR which is very close to a breakout above 70.40 (in this case it should be noted that US$ is so far fairly muted against major currencies).
We could initially see the Standard Deviation variation between Equity > Commodities / Currency expand. As a result, firstly the range will get broader, secondly price movement/reaction will be faster. Hence, option writing as Jan series gets into momentum might not be a safe hedge as it has appeared in NOV-DEC. Positional traders might get caught on the wrong side time and again as Swing traders are going to love the series
