nifty 50 temperory bottom madehello everyone,
i think bottom of nifty has been made
i have explained this on the basis of critical gapdown mehod
which sweeps the liquidity
NIFTY trade ideas
Is 21400 the bottom of #NIFTY ?
The Nifty50 is currently down over 13% from its all-time high. After studying the chart for a while, I’ve arrived at a possible scenario.
Since COVID, the index has remained within a channel, and I don’t see any major catalysts—like a recession, pandemic, war, or significant news—driving this decline. In fact, we’ve weathered much more severe global events since COVID.
Given this, I lean toward the possibility of a small bounce or consolidation rather than a crash.
But could my view be wrong? Of course—it’s always possible that the market behaves differently than I expect. Can I control that? Not at all. The best I can do is align with the market and let it take its course.
Cheers!
George Soros's Top Trading Rules: Master Risk and Reward
I hope you all are doing great in life and your trading journey as well! Today, I’ve brought an educational post on George Soros's Top Trading Rules . These timeless principles from one of the greatest traders in history will help you master risk management and improve your trading skills. Let’s dive in!
It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that matters, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
Soros focuses on managing risk and reward, emphasizing that being right doesn’t matter unless your profits outweigh your losses.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
He highlights the importance of thinking ahead and capitalizing on unexpected market moves.
The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside.
This rule underlines his contrarian approach of buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy.
Know when to cut your losses.
Soros is a big believer in exiting a losing trade quickly to protect your capital.
I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.
This reflects the importance of self-awareness and adaptability in trading.
When you’re risking your own money, the first and foremost rule is survival.
Protecting capital is always the top priority, ensuring long-term trading success.
Recognize bubbles when you see them.
Soros’s theory of reflexivity emphasizes how markets can deviate from fundamentals due to investor sentiment, creating opportunities to profit.
A good trader thinks about probabilities, not certainties.
He advises traders to focus on risk management and the odds of success rather than seeking perfect predictions.
If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.
Patience and discipline are crucial in trading and investing.
Thank you for reading! Apply these timeless principles of George Soros in your trading journey and focus on mastering risk and reward. Share your thoughts or favorite trading rules in the comments below! Don’t forget to follow for more insightful posts. Happy Trading!
Options Trading Strategies on Budget Day 2025A Comprehensive Guide on Nifty, Niftybank, and Sensex Options
Introduction
Trading options on Union Budget day can be an exhilarating yet challenging endeavour. The Indian stock market sees significant volatility on this day, influenced by the budget announcements made by the Finance Minister. This guide will provide insights into trading options on the three major indices in the Indian markets: Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex. We will also analyse the past data of these indices on budget days and examine how India VIX have fluctuated during these days. Based on this data we will deploy 4 delta neutral strategies and see how these strategies have performed on the budget days for all the 3 indices. The basic idea of this study is to find out the optimal strategy that can be deployed on budget day. Also please note since Sensex is a new instrument for weekly options data for the strategies is only available for 2024
Understanding the Major Indices
• Nifty: The Nifty 50 index, representing 50 of the largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
• Niftybank: The Nifty Bank index, comprising the most liquid and large capitalized Indian banking stocks.
• Sensex: The Sensex or BSE 30 index, representing 30 of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
Historical Performance on Union Budget Days
To make informed trading decisions, it is essential to analyse how these indices have performed on budget days over the past decade. The following tables provide detailed data on the indices' performance, including values for Open, High, Low, Close, and percentage changes from Open to Close and High to Low. Additionally, the tables include India VIX movement throughout the day.
Analysing Implied Volatility and India VIX
On Union Budget day, implied volatility and the India VIX are crucial indicators to watch. Typically, an IV crush occurs post the Finance Minister's speech, leading to a significant drop in volatility. This section will explore these trends based on historical data and provide insights into how traders can capitalize on these movements.
PS: The IV considered here will be the ATM Straddle IV
Options Trading Strategies
Although multiple options strategies can be deployed on budget day we are going to consider deploying a Directional and a Non-Directional Straddle with protective hedges. We will compare the strategies to see which strategy has given the best back testing performance and we will compare the performance of these strategies for all indices Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex.
Short Straddles using Wait & Trade
A conventional short straddle involves selling an ATM call and an ATM put option. However instead of entering both the legs at once we are going to perform a wait and trade directional straddle. This means that we will enter the call leg or the put leg only when the premium falls below 5%. We will take the reference time of entry as 9:20 am and exit time for the strategy will be 3:25 pm. We will check the reference price of both the calls and put options at 9:20 am for the ATM Straddle strike price. Let us say the Nifty on budget day is trading at 22500 then we will check the premium of the 22500 CE and 22500 PE and note down these prices. Let us say both are trading close Rs 100 each then we will enter only when the price of those options goes below Rs 95 implying that there is some direction in the market. So we will enter only that leg and avoid executing the other leg. If the market takes a direction we are bound to profit from the leg that has been executed. If the market moves up first and then down then it is likely that both the legs will get executed. The stop loss on the individual legs will be 70% each. One can execute this simple strategy via an algo execution platform.
Pros: This strategy profits from the decrease in implied volatility and can be profitable if the market remains sideways or directional.
Cons: This strategy will tend to loose money in a V-shape or U-shape market since there is a possibility of both stop losses triggering.
Iron Butterfly
An Iron Butterfly strategy involves selling an ATM straddle and buying protective wings (an OTM call and an OTM put) to limit risk. The offset units will be purely selected on the basis of the breakeven points of the straddle to keep it simple. This strategy is limited risk limited reward strategy. We will execute this strategy on all indices at 9:20 am and exit at 3:25 pm on all budget days.
Pros: On budget days the usual tendency of the market is to make some extreme movements but tend to close flat or closer to the open. If on the budget day the market tends to behave in this manner then the strategy turns out to be a high profitable strategy.
Cons: On budget day if the market becomes extremely directional then this strategy will end in a limited loss
Back tested Results
The back tested performance of short straddles and Iron Butterfly on Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex indices are summarized in the following tables. These tables will help traders understand the potential profitability and risks associated with each strategy. For some strategies there is lack of back tested data available, so it is denoted as NA in the column of the strategy name
Note: All the strategies deployed as a part of this exercise are time based straddles. To optimize the performance of these strategies one can look at ATM straddle charts and can add some technical indicators such as super trend, vwap or moving averages to plan precision entries and exits for these strategies. The usage of these will definitely help increase the probability of the trade.
Please find the link below for your reference with all the data
Historical Data Indices.xlsx
The software used for backtesting the strategies in StockMock.
Conclusion
Budget week brings volatility; traders should employ delta neutral strategies to benefit from price fluctuations and implied volatility changes
Some of the key highlights of all budget days:
1. Budget week is highly volatile, with significant price movements expected.
2. Historical analysis shows an average 2-2.5% movement from high to low on budget days.
3. Implied volatility typically decreases around 11 AM on budget day.
4. Delta neutral strategies are recommended for traders lacking directional clarity.
5. Various strategies like straddles, strangles, and iron condors can be employed.
6. One should use algo platforms to automate executions since markets will tend to move very fast and in such situations, execution becomes extremely critical
7. Also do your own study by backtesting, forward testing and only then deploy your strategy in the live market
Hope you found the above article useful in helping you to prepare yourself in advance for Budget Day. All the best!
Nifty Trading Strategy for 28th January 2025Nifty Trading Strategy
Buy Strategy:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle that closed above 22,900
Targets: 22,950, 23,000, 23,050
Stop-Loss: Below the low of the 15-minute candle that closed above 22,900
Sell Strategy:
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle that closed below 22,700
Targets: 22,660, 22,615, 22,565
Stop-Loss: Above the high of the 15-minute candle that closed below 22,700
Disclaimer:
I am not SEBI registered. This analysis is based on historical data and market trends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investment involve risks, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Nifty50The Nifty 50 Index could drop further if it breaches key support levels. Based on recent analyses:
A drop below the immediate support level of 22,975 could open the door for further decline towards 22,800.
If market sentiment continues to be bearish, the next support level could be around 22,600.
More extended downside support levels are at 22,500 and 22,3433.
Let's keep an eye on market indicators and global sentiment, as they can significantly influence these support levels. Do you think the market might find support at one of these levels?
Nifty Prediction for Tuesday 28 January 25Hello Early Investor,
Our objective at #HELPINGSTOCKINVESTOR is to build financial discipline in traders by simplifying Stock Market Education and Financial concepts with an expertise knowledge in Derivative Analysis, Market Trend Analysis and Technical analysis of a Stock. Here you can learn different trading strategies along with market fundamentals. Daily Market Analysis on this channel is most helpful for traders. #Experience of almost 7+ years in the market. Happy Trading!
Like
Share
Subscribe
Nifty & Bank Nifty - What next - halt, recovery or more fall?Moving averages love the price and they won't let it go very far. Can this let Nifty and Bank Nifty to recover in the next session?
Watch the video and check my view.
NIFTY 50 VIEW Nifty at support now let's see what will happen as per my view is near support if it fall from recent support next support levels are shown here in green colored line and resistances in red color and chart tells me that here is inverse HEAD & SHOULDER pattern,What if it's neck line broken sure it will go to kiss next supports.And there is gann fan intersecting right opposit gann fan .Stake decition carefully it is not my buy or sell call my resistance line worked very well which i posted for BITCOIN.
Thanks to all for your kind support.
27/01/2025 Nifty Brekdwon Tangle Support line Today Nifty Brekdwon Tangle Support line .10/07/2025 First time hit that lavel then 3 times hit that lavel but no brekdwon. Today hit this line and close down . Nifty berish side
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 27th January 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index closed near 23090 level and Maximum Call and Put Writing near CMP as below in current weekly contract:
Call Writing
23500 Strike – 75.29 Lakh 23200 Strike – 56.12 Lakh
23300 Strike – 55.46 Lakh
Put Writing
23000 Strike – 65.13 Lakh
22500 Strike – 53.43 Lakh
22800 Strike – 40.78 Lakh
Index has resistance near 23250 - 23300 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 23400 - 23450 range.
Index has immediate support near 23000 – 22950 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 22800 – 22750 range.
Nifty levels - Jan 28, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty Weekly Review Jan 27 - Jan 31Price moved in range between 23000 to 23400 through out this week. 23000 is a strong support zone. Price is bullish as long as it is sustaining above 23000.
In daily time frame price is testing support zone and should move above it to be bullish.
Buy above 23060 with the stop loss of 23010 for the targets 23100, 23140, 23190, 23240, 23300, 23360, 23420 and 23460.
Sell below 22960 with the stop loss of 23000 for the targets 22920, 22880, 22820, 22760 and 22720.
Do your own analysis before taking any trade.
Nifty - Possible end of bears controlFrom the ATH of 26151 Nifty is almost reaching its 10% correction value @ 22635
Area of 22650 to 750 also happens to be the last strongest support point
At this level it can be make or break situation for nifty
Will be good to take a bullish bet with 22600 as ultimate SL(Closing basis) as the PE premiums are soaring high
It may be a risky call but Risk to Reward is excellent
Will wait for the index to show some clarity in lower time frames (15 / 30/ 60 m)
Nifty Breakdown: A Retest of 21,300-21,000 on the Cards?Nifty has decisively broken out of a Falling Wedge + Descending Triangle, confirming a Lower High-Lower Low (LH-LL) pattern. If this bearish momentum sustains, we could see the following levels:
Immediate downside toward 22,500
In the worst-case scenario, a retest of 21,300-21,000—the lows last seen during the election volatility of June 2024.
🚩 What’s Adding Pressure?
1️⃣ Midcap, Smallcap, and Microcap indices have also broken down from their bases, intensifying the bearish sentiment.
2️⃣ Uncertainty over Union Budget 2025: Will it contain market-friendly announcements or trigger further panic?
3️⃣ Trump’s global policies & their potential impact on India.
4️⃣ SEBI’s regulations, which could also weigh on market sentiment.
📉 What’s the Key Risk?
If the budget disappoints and external policies remain unfavourable, retailers may panic sell, potentially driving Nifty toward these crucial levels.
💡 Trading Tip:
Preserve capital during such volatile phases. As Paul Tudor Jones said, "Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have."
💭 What’s Your View?
Will Nifty reverse from 22,500 post-budget?
Or are we looking at a deeper correction toward 21,300-21,000?
📈 Let’s discuss below!
#Nifty directions and levels for January 27th:Good Morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for January 27th:
Market Overview:
There have been no significant changes in the global markets, which are still maintaining a bullish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones). However, our local market is showing a bearish sentiment.
> The Nifty is showing a long gap-down start. If this sustains, structurally, we can expect the correction to continue with some minor pullbacks. Based on the wave structure, this long gap-down could extend into the 3rd sub-wave of the correction. Typically, the 3rd wave is the longest leg of an impulse, so we can expect a prolonged correction. This is the structural sentiment.
> On the other hand, the budget announcement is just a few days away, and experts are expecting high volatility. This means there is no clear direction—if the market goes down, it could recover at any point, and if it goes up, it may eventually reverse. Therefore, the sentiment is a bit difficult to predict.
In light of this, we can apply a simple trading method:
> as long as the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing holds, the correction is likely to continue in the current direction. If this level breaks, we can expect a reversal.
This is just my opinion based on my limited experience. If you have any better ideas, please share them with me so we can discuss them in this community.
However, all the chart structures are based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci levels that we regularly update, so you can follow them without any doubts. Have a nice day!
NIFTY Levels for January 27, 2025NIFTY Levels for Today
Here are the today's NIFTY Levels for intraday. Based on market movement, these levels can act as support, resistance or both.
Please consider these levels only if there is movement in index and 15m candle sustains at the given levels.
The SL (Stop loss) for each BUY trade should be the previous RED candle below the given level. Similarly, the SL (Stop loss) for each SELL trade should be the previous GREEN candle above the given level.
Note: This idea and these levels are only for learning and educational purpose.
Your likes /boosts gives us motivation for continued leaning and sharing ideas.
Nitty current situation Bottom buildup Nitty current situation Bottom buildup consolidation 1 month and above time period And Budget Coming February month then current Time Bounce back with institutions buying With big volume
27-01 Nifty intraday levelsDear traders, here are the key levels for nifty 27-01-25 and important support and resistance for intraday,based on previous day movement. Red lines represent resistance area,green line represent support area.
Note: Intraday view only
Time Frame: 15 minute
SHORT NIFTY 50(SHORT TERM)Nifty 50 is in bearish mode and will continue to be in bearish cycle atleast till Q4 ending i.e. March 2025. It is in continuous downtrend and will make new lower highs and lower lows.
According to my analysis, I am expecting it to take a great support near 22000 levels.
21800-22000 is a very crucial long term support for NIFTY 50.
Keep you cash ready. Let's bear the bears till March.
#Nifty50 - 27th November NSE:NIFTY
Chart contains support and resistance levels ( understand how it works 👇🏻)
Support and resistance are key concepts in technical analysis used to identify potential price levels where assets may reverse or stall.
Support:
-Definition: A support level is a price point where buying interest is strong enough to overcome selling pressure, preventing the price from falling further.
- Indicators: Support levels can be identified through historical price data, trend lines, or moving averages.
- Behavior: When a price approaches support, it may bounce back up. If broken, it can become a new resistance level.
Resistance:
- Definition: A resistance level is a price point where selling interest is strong enough to overcome buying pressure, preventing the price from rising further.
- Indicators: Similar to support, resistance levels can be identified through past price action, trend lines, or moving averages.
- Behavior: When the price approaches resistance, it may retreat. If broken, it can turn into a new support level.
Importance:
- Trade Decisions: Traders use these levels to make buy or sell decisions, set stop-loss orders, and identify potential profit targets.
- Market Psychology: Support and resistance levels reflect market sentiment and the balance between supply and demand.
Understanding these concepts can enhance trading strategies and improve decision-making.
Ps note: I'm not SEBI Registere 🙏🏻
Nifty 50 Index spot 23092.20 by the Daily Chart viewNifty 50 Index spot 23092.20 by the Daily Chart view
- Just sharing my personal point of view for things to unfold and look forward to for the coming week and then some more.
Nifty Trading Strategy for 27th January 2025Nifty Trading Strategy
Buy Strategy:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle that closed above 23,260
Targets: 23,320, 23,375, 23,440
Stop-Loss: Below the low of the 15-minute candle that closed above 23,260
Sell Strategy:
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle that closed below 23,005
Targets: 22,940, 22,880, 22,825
Stop-Loss: Above the high of the 15-minute candle that closed below 23,005
Disclaimer:
I am not SEBI registered. This analysis is based on historical data and market trends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investment involve risks, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
