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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

NZDUSD bears struggle with 200-DMA on RBNZ dayNZDUSD dribbles around a seven-week low as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 0.50% rate hike on Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades the previous week’s bounce off 200-DMA amid a nearly oversold RSI (14). That said, bearish MACD signals and an early February reversal from a six-month-old ascending resistance line keep the sellers hopeful of breaking the 0.6185 DMA support. Following that, the September 2022 high of near 0.6160 acts as an extra filter towards the south, a break of which could quickly drag the quote to the last July’s bottom of 0.6060. It’s worth observing that the pair’s weakness past 0.6060 won’t hesitate to break the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, recovery moves need a daily closing beyond the three-week-old resistance line, close to 0.6275 by the press time, to convince NZDUSD bulls. In a case where the Kiwi pair manages to cross the 0.6275 hurdle, the previous weekly top surrounding 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure could challenge the upside momentum. During the quote’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6400, the previously mentioned ascending resistance line near 0.6545 precedes the double tops marked during late 2022, around 0.6570-75, which will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar and hints at more downside on the RBNZ day.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD upside appears limited as the key week beginsBe it New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report or China’s return after Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays, not to forget the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, NZDUSD has an interesting week ahead. However, the bulls appear running out of steam after a four-week winning streak. The reason could be linked to the overbought RSI and multiple attempts to cross the upward-sloping resistance line from early June, close to 0.6525 by the press time. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6525 hurdle, a nine-month-old horizontal resistance near 0.6570 will be crucial as a break of which opens the door for the north-run towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-October downturn, around 0.6700. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair around 0.6450. Following that, an ascending support line from early November, close to 0.6390, could act as the last defense for the Kiwi pair buyers. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past 0.6390 could make it vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-DMA, respectively near 0.6270 and 0.6190. Overall, NZDUSD has bright opportunities to take entries but it all depends upon fundamental data/events and hence a cautious move is advisable.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD stays on the buyer’s radar on RBNZ dayDespite the RBNZ-led volatility, NZDUSD defends the early month breakout of the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from April 05. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October downturn, near 0.6090, restricts the Kiwi pair’s immediate declines ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line, close to 0.6040 at the latest. Following that, the 100-DMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line, respectively near 0.6015 and the 0.6000 round figure, could act as the last defenses of the pair buyers before welcoming the bears. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside momentum needs a daily closing beyond the monthly high surrounding 0.6205 to convince NZDUSD buyers. In that case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-DMA, close to 0.6270 and 0.6305 in that order, will be in the spotlight. Should the New Zealand dollar remains firmer beyond the 200-DMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, might probe the north-run near 0.6455, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the tops marked in May-June around 0.6570-75. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain the bull’s favorite unless breaks the 0.6000 threshold.
by MTradingGlobal
RBNZ Rate DecisionReserve Bank Of New Zealand Interest rate decision: The Consumer Price Index CPI rose by 7.2% in September 2022, it's fall from August's print but still higher than experts thought which the consensus is 6.5. Economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift the cash rate by a record 75bps while money markets wager a roughly 65% probability for the biggest ever rate point hike this month. Guys my take on this rate saga are: I'm bullish with NZDJPY, NZDUSD, NZDCHF, if the bank increase its OCR by 75bps. I'm bearish with NZDJPY, NZDUSD, NZDCHF, if the bank increase its OCR by only 50bps. Because the New Zealand Dollar needs an upward revision to the Bank's rate hike trajectory and Hawkish rhetoric from the governor Adrian Orr to resume it's March towards 0.6250 against US Dollar.
by CELGIB_TRADING