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S&P 500Hello & welcome to this analysis
The index saw a super duper reversal from a Bullish Harmonic Bat in end October near 4100.
Now it has an immediate resistance coming up near 4600 where we might see some consolidation, above that it enters into the PRZ of a Bearish Harmonic Alt Shark near 4650 which could trigger some profit booking.
From 1 harmonic pattern (bullish) to another harmonic pattern (bearish)
Safe trading
SPX 500 The SPX500's upward journey within the confines of the rising channel suggests a market that is optimistic about future economic conditions and company earnings. However, the path is not linear, which is typical of stock markets; it's characterized by peaks and troughs even within a general trend, reflecting the constant ebb and flow of investor sentiment and reaction to external factors.
As the index approaches the channel's upper boundary, investors might anticipate a test of this resistance. A breakthrough could be read as a sign of strength and a possible continuation of the bullish trend. However, if the price fails to breach this level, it could indicate an imminent pullback, with the Fibonacci levels serving as potential areas where buyers might re-emerge to push prices up again.
The oscillator at the bottom, hovering around its mid-point, suggests that the index is not in an extreme state of being overbought or oversold. It indicates a market in balance, but one that is perhaps poised for a breakout move if a catalyst emerges.
In conclusion, the SPX500's chart tells a story of a market in an uptrend but facing a moment of truth as it encounters a crucial resistance level. Investors will be scrutinizing forthcoming economic data, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical events, all of which could tip the balance and set the index on its next significant trajectory. This chart is a snapshot in time and one piece in the larger puzzle of market analysis. It provides a framework for decision-making, not a crystal ball. As always, prudent investors will consider multiple data points and market signals before making investment decisions.
S&P 500 trend analysisDear Traders,
We have observed the S&P500 chart to be trending in a trend channel since the lows of 2009 crash. Also, market few local support & resistances. The conclusion we got from this is very simple. S&P500 heading for a fresh bull run for the targets of the levels of 6500 + within 2-3 years of time span.
Which sectors will be leading? Please comment and stay tuned for more updates.
P.S: Given is information sharing based of personal observation & is not any buy or sell recommendation. Please consult you registered financial advisor before making any trade or investment
S&P 500: A Look at November and Expectations for December 2023Welcome to my first analysis on englush language.
Macroeconomic Context
November 2023 has been a month marked by key macroeconomic dynamics. The fall in 10-year bond interest rates has had a significant impact on the market, generating a well-known negative correlation that justifies an increase in stocks. However, this rapid rise in stock prices has made it difficult to adopt an overly bullish stance, and a pullback seems imminent and necessary.
Fundamental Analysis
In fundamental terms, inflation in Europe and its influence on ECB monetary policy have been relevant factors. Disinflation continues in the Eurozone, supporting the expectation that the ECB could stop raising interest rates. Additionally, the rise of mid and small-cap stocks, driven by the long-term interest rate declines, has been noteworthy.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 recorded a 14.5% increase since the beginning of the year, reaching 4,415.00 points on November 13, though it experienced a 4.2% decline from the July high. The index crossed the upward trend line on November 3, overcoming the 4385.00 points resistance and suggesting a possible further growth.
Future Projections and Scenarios
Looking towards December, the "Santa Claus Rally," a trend that typically materializes towards year-end, is a factor to consider. Investors are expected to seek to bolster their performance indicators before the year's end.
Moreover, experts predict various scenarios for the S&P 500. BofA Global Research suggests it could end 2023 at 4,600 points. Barclays, on the other hand, offers three potential routes: a bullish scenario taking the index to 4700 points, a baseline forecast placing it at 4150 points, and a bearish scenario with a decline to 3650 points.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown notable resilience in November, driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, as well as a favorable technical trend. However, uncertainty remains, especially with potential fluctuations in December. Investors would do well to remain alert to macroeconomic signals and market movements in response to monetary policies and global developments. Prudence and adaptability will be key to navigating a market scenario that remains complex and constantly evolving.
SPX Weekly update on 18-11-2023SPX is anticipated to have completed the correction against the rally from the low of 2191 in March 2020 of cycle degree. Currently, it is expected to be in wave 3 formation of cycle degree, with the outlook for SPX to extend further high in wave 3 as long as it remains above 4103 and does not break the trend line.
S&P500 vs Nifty50 vs USDINR upto 31st Oct 2023This year, SPX is up 8.84% compared to Nifty50 up 4%. Nifty50 is plotted in USD currency so that the comparison makes more sense.
If you also look at the price actions, both the charts are showing good correlation. It will be interesting to find out how Nifty50 will close the 4.84% gap.
USDINR is up 0.59% year to date.
SnP 500This chart of the SnP has been posted by Me in the past with the levels of the Cup and Handle formation. I have recently been studying the data for the US markets of the Last 72 years and what it shows is this.
1. In the Last 72 years............. The market dropped 34 times. Of this 34 times, on 12 occasions it went to below 20% calling it a BEAR MARKET Scenario. 22 times it went into a correction of 10-16%, call it simply a correction and nothing more. Currently from the JULY peak, the SnP has dropped 10% and if history is to go by, let us assume it will fall 16%. That 16% fits the exact bill for a move towards 4050 or so to confirm the Cup and Handle formation.
2. The drawdown of 10-16% lasted 22 times within 100 days. Currently it is 91 days.
3. Markets thereafter have given a return of 56-74% on all the previous corrections in the last 72 years.
4. I WILL NOT TERM THIS AS A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.
In context to the Indian Index, here is what I have come up with.
1. I have had to assume that the Indian market will go by the US consensus ... YYYY ????? 1stly the Indian Stock exchange is not 72 years old, and has not been through the cycles of the Great Depression..... etc. The Indian market actually was Hand written untill just 30 odd years ago and hence data can only be collected for the last 30-35 years.
2. Should the Indian Market Mimic the US market............. the worst case scenario is a 16% fall from the peak of 20200..... (b)..... We will probably do this 16% retrace even though the US markets may bounce back earlier than we do.
3. If we go the data way of the US market............ can we go to 96 days of Correction?? I would say..."" YES"".. The reason I say this is 2 fold. 1stly, should the market fall 16% in half the time @ 48 days we are not far away from that. 2ndly, it would be tooooooooooo obvious for Investors to follow a V shape parabolic recovery. The BIG BOYS will not want that.
4. I have said in my prior posts that I expect the Bottom of this CORRECTION on the Nifty by Dec end -15th January 2024 only. Within this space of Up and Down...... Investors will get frustrated. So much so that Many will get out.
5. Lastly, WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.......... NO NOT YET
spx fake flag ? dont get trap4200 has confirmed as new base and good support for medium time frame (1h)
after the retest price followed and formed higher high and higher low
currently halting near 4400-4300 zone price seems to consolidate
many of us looking it as flag and pole and will look to buy on trend continous
as a fib retracement there is possible less probablity to gain good risk to reward on long side
rather let price retrace from 4450 - 4460 zone and look for buy on pullback
SnP 500I have my ways of going about markets and I just dont follow what others do. I am NOT convinced that the World Markets are Crashing yet....... NOT YET. No amount of MACDs/RSIs or other eye catching indicators can convince me yet about a Crash..... Give or Take a few points here and there i have given you all what I see and understand Best






















