GoldDaily bias Bullish
4H structure Look's good for buys
have a clean 15M BFVG
and entry pattern is 15M englufying candle
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD/GOLD 30 MIN BUY PROJECTION 23.09.25XAUUSD/Gold 30-min buy projection chart you shared for 23.09.25. Here’s the breakdown of what the chart indicates:
🔎 Chart Analysis
Trend: Price is moving within a bullish (upward) channel, shown by the blue trend lines.
Entry Zone: Around 3749.687 (marked as ENTRY, just above Support 1).
Stop Loss (SL): Around 3743.131, below the 30-min FVG (Fair Value Gap).
Supports:
Support 1: ~3749 zone
Support 2: ~3755–3757 zone
Take Profits:
TP1: Around 3765–3767 level (mid-channel target).
TP2 (ATH – All-Time High for this projection): Around 3783–3785.
Projection Path:
Price expected to bounce near entry zone → rise towards TP1 → possible pullback → continue bullish momentum towards TP2 ATH following the 30-min uptrend line.
⚡ Trading Idea (based on chart)
Buy Entry: ~3749
Stoploss: ~3743
TP1: ~3765
TP2: ~3783
This setup offers a risk-reward ratio > 1:3, which is strong for an intraday buy trade.
👉 Do you want me to calculate the exact risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) for this setup so you can evaluate position sizing?
Gold Prices Continue to Rise Amid Rate Cuts and Geopolitical RisGold prices today are being strongly supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to cut interest rates and the increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical instability.
Last week, the FED made its first rate cut of 0.25% since December, causing gold prices to surge. While some investors took profits, most experts believe the uptrend is not over yet.
This week, investor focus will be on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for August, the FED's preferred inflation measure, which may provide further clues about future rate cuts. Many forecasts predict a slowdown in core PCE, reinforcing the case for continued rate cuts by the FED.
Additionally, safe-haven flows are further supported by prolonged geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over economic impacts from U.S. tariffs.
Furthermore, strong gold buying activity from global central banks plays a crucial role in strengthening the bullish outlook for the precious metal.
Gold’s Medium-Term Play: From Momentum Peaks to Reload Zones!!Gold’s rally has been relentless, breaking out of ranges and pressing higher into the 3750s. That strength reflects the macro backdrop where the Fed is walking a fine line: inflation is sticky, growth signals are uneven, and market expectations are already pricing a deeper rate-cut cycle. Yields have softened, the dollar has lost some shine, and capital continues to flow into safe-haven trades. All of this leaves gold well supported in the medium term, though the path forward will not be a straight line.
Target Zone (3827–3840):
The immediate stretch for bulls sits higher around 3827–3840. This is where the rally could stall as momentum traders lock in profits. A clean break and hold above this zone would open the door to new all-time highs, but the market could just as easily treat it as a ceiling before pulling back.
Hidden Bounce Zone (3720–3680):
Sitting just under the current price is a pocket that often acts as a liquidity trap. Markets can bounce sharply from here or slice through with equal speed. For active trades this zone will give the first clue whether momentum is running out of steam.
High-volume Zone (3630):
This level is the backbone of the current structure. Holding above it keeps the broader trend intact. A decisive break below, however, signals that the correction phase has started and the market is hunting for deeper liquidity.
Correction Band (3600–3560):
If gold slips into this range, expect chop and sideways action as weak longs get flushed out and new buyers gradually step in. This zone isn’t where the story ends, but where the market catches its breath.
Medium-Term Reload Zone (3440–3480):
This is the level that matters for swing trades. If a deeper washout comes, this area offers the opportunity to reload positions for the next major leg up. The medium-term backdrop still favors higher prices, with rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and central bank demand forming a strong tailwind.
Macro Picture
Fed Outlook: Committee members are split, but the overall tone is tilting toward easing as growth cracks widen. Powell may sound careful, yet markets are already betting on more cuts ahead.
Dollar and Yields: The dollar index remains pressured while U.S. yields edge lower, creating a supportive base for gold.
Global Flows: Central banks remain steady buyers, and geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
In short, gold has room to push into the 3827–3840 zone, but trades should prepare for corrective phases along the way. The hidden bounce pocket and HVZ will decide the near-term path. Should the market wash down into the 3440–3480 reload zone, it should be seen not as weakness, but as a prime setup to load into the medium-term bullish story. Trade safe!
How to Control Trading Risk Factors1. Understanding Trading Risk
Before controlling trading risk, you must understand what “risk” means in trading.
1.1 Definition of Trading Risk
Trading risk refers to the potential for financial loss resulting from trading activities. It arises due to various internal and external factors, including market volatility, economic changes, human errors, and systemic uncertainties.
1.2 Types of Trading Risks
Trading risks can be broadly categorized as follows:
Market Risk: Losses due to price movements in stocks, commodities, forex, or derivatives.
Liquidity Risk: The inability to buy or sell assets at desired prices due to insufficient market liquidity.
Credit Risk: The risk that counterparties in trades fail to meet obligations.
Operational Risk: Risks arising from human errors, technology failures, or process inefficiencies.
Systemic Risk: Risks related to the overall financial system, such as economic crises or political instability.
Understanding these risks allows traders to create a comprehensive strategy for mitigation.
2. The Psychology of Risk
2.1 Emotional Discipline
Trading is as much psychological as it is technical. Emotional decisions often lead to risk exposure:
Fear: Selling too early and missing profit opportunities.
Greed: Over-leveraging positions and ignoring risk limits.
Overconfidence: Ignoring stop-loss rules or trading based on intuition alone.
2.2 Behavioral Biases
Behavioral biases amplify trading risk:
Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs.
Loss Aversion: Avoiding small losses but risking larger ones.
Recency Bias: Overweighting recent market trends over long-term data.
Controlling these psychological factors is critical to managing risk effectively.
3. Risk Assessment and Measurement
3.1 Position Sizing
Determining how much capital to allocate to a trade is crucial:
Use the 1–2% rule, limiting potential loss per trade to a small fraction of total capital.
Adjust position size based on volatility—larger positions in stable markets, smaller positions in volatile markets.
3.2 Risk-Reward Ratio
Every trade should have a clear risk-reward profile:
A risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 ensures potential profit outweighs potential loss.
For example, risking $100 to gain $300 aligns with disciplined risk control.
3.3 Value at Risk (VaR)
VaR calculates potential loss in a portfolio under normal market conditions:
Traders use historical data and statistical models to estimate daily, weekly, or monthly potential losses.
VaR helps in understanding extreme loss scenarios.
4. Risk Mitigation Strategies
4.1 Stop-Loss Orders
Stop-loss orders are essential tools:
Fixed Stop-Loss: Predefined price point to exit the trade.
Trailing Stop-Loss: Moves with favorable price movement, protecting profits while limiting downside.
4.2 Hedging Techniques
Hedging reduces exposure to adverse market moves:
Use options or futures contracts to protect underlying positions.
Example: Buying put options on a stock to limit downside while holding the stock long.
4.3 Diversification
Diversification spreads risk across multiple assets:
Avoid concentrating all capital in one asset or sector.
Combine stocks, commodities, forex, and derivatives to balance risk and reward.
4.4 Leverage Management
Leverage magnifies both gains and losses:
Use leverage cautiously, especially in volatile markets.
Understand margin requirements and potential for margin calls.
5. Market Analysis for Risk Control
5.1 Technical Analysis
Identify trends, support/resistance levels, and patterns to anticipate market moves.
Use indicators like RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands to time entries and exits.
5.2 Fundamental Analysis
Evaluate economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical factors.
Understanding macroeconomic factors reduces exposure to unforeseen market shocks.
5.3 Volatility Monitoring
Higher volatility increases risk; adjust trade size accordingly.
Use VIX (Volatility Index) or ATR (Average True Range) to measure market risk.
6. Trade Management
6.1 Pre-Trade Planning
Define entry and exit points before executing trades.
Calculate maximum acceptable loss for each trade.
6.2 Monitoring and Adjusting
Continuously monitor positions and market conditions.
Adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels dynamically based on market behavior.
6.3 Post-Trade Analysis
Review each trade to identify mistakes and improve strategy.
Track metrics like win rate, average profit/loss, and drawdowns.
7. Risk Control in Different Markets
7.1 Stock Market
Diversify across sectors and market capitalizations.
Monitor earnings releases and economic indicators.
7.2 Forex Market
Account for geopolitical risks, interest rate changes, and currency correlations.
Avoid excessive leverage; use proper position sizing.
7.3 Commodity Market
Hedge with futures and options to mitigate price swings.
Consider global supply-demand factors and seasonal trends.
7.4 Derivatives Market
Derivatives can be highly leveraged, increasing potential risk.
Use proper hedging strategies, clear stop-loss rules, and strict position limits.
8. Risk Management Tools and Technology
8.1 Automated Trading Systems
Algorithmic trading can reduce human emotional error.
Programs can enforce stop-loss, trailing stops, and position sizing automatically.
8.2 Risk Analytics Software
Platforms provide real-time risk metrics, VaR analysis, and scenario simulations.
Enables proactive decision-making.
8.3 Alerts and Notifications
Real-time alerts for price levels, volatility spikes, or margin requirements help mitigate sudden risk exposure.
9. Capital Preservation as the Core Principle
The fundamental rule of trading risk control is capital preservation:
Avoid catastrophic losses that wipe out a trading account.
Profitable trading strategies fail if risk is not controlled.
Focus on long-term survival in the market rather than short-term profits.
10. Professional Risk Management Practices
10.1 Risk Policies
Institutional traders operate under strict risk guidelines.
Examples: Daily loss limits, maximum leverage caps, and mandatory diversification.
10.2 Stress Testing
Simulate extreme market conditions to assess portfolio resilience.
Helps prepare for black swan events.
10.3 Continuous Education
Markets evolve constantly; traders must learn new techniques, understand new instruments, and adapt to regulatory changes.
11. Common Mistakes in Risk Management
Overleveraging positions.
Ignoring stop-loss rules due to emotional bias.
Failing to diversify.
Trading without a risk-reward analysis.
Reacting impulsively to market noise.
Avoiding these mistakes is essential for long-term trading success.
12. Conclusion
Controlling trading risk factors requires a blend of discipline, knowledge, planning, and continuous monitoring. Traders must combine:
Psychological control to avoid emotional decision-making.
Analytical tools for precise risk measurement.
Strategic techniques like diversification, hedging, and stop-loss orders.
Capital preservation mindset as the foundation of sustainable trading.
Successful risk management does not eliminate losses entirely but ensures losses are controlled, manageable, and do not threaten overall trading objectives. By adopting a systematic and disciplined approach to risk, traders can navigate volatile markets confidently, optimize returns, and achieve long-term financial success.
Daily Trading Plan: Liquidity Zones & Bullish Outlook📊 Market Context
Gold is holding strong after its breakout, trading near 3760 USD/oz as safe-haven demand stays elevated. The combination of geopolitical tensions, global fund flows into ETFs, and a weaker USD continues to support the bullish bias. For Indian traders, gold’s rally is closely watched as both an investment hedge and a short-term trading opportunity. While the broader structure remains bullish, price may first sweep liquidity in key zones before pushing towards higher levels.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4/2H)
Price recently tested 3760, confirming bullish momentum.
Immediate support: 3725, marked as a CP retest zone.
Stronger support: 3689–3690, overlapping with OBS + FVG demand zone.
Resistance targets: 3788 (short-term liquidity pool) and 3805–3830 (major liquidity area).
Overall structure: Still bullish, but likely to retest demand zones before the next leg higher.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance / Sell Zones: 3760 ➡️ 3788 ➡️ 3805–3830
Support / Buy Zones: 3725 ➡️ 3689–3690
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
✅ BUY ZONE 1 (Shallow Pullback): 3725
SL: 3716
TP: 3760 ➡️ 3788 ➡️ 3805 …
✅ BUY ZONE 2 (Deeper Liquidity Retest): 3689–3690
SL: 3680
TP: 3725 ➡️ 3760 ➡️ 3788 ➡️ 3830 …
✅ SELL SCALP (Liquidity Trap Setup): Around 3788–3805, if rejection patterns confirm
SL: 3810
TP: 3775 ➡️ 3760 ➡️ 3740 …
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch out for false breakouts above 3788 or below 3725 – liquidity sweeps are common.
Enter trades only after confirmation; avoid chasing price in the middle of the range.
Keep risk per trade controlled, as Fed speeches and geopolitical headlines could spark volatility.
✅ Summary
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with 3788–3805 as the next upside magnet. The plan is to buy dips at 3725 or 3689–3690, while keeping an eye on potential short-term sell setups near 3788–3805. The bias stays bullish, but risk management is key.
📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for intraday updates, liquidity-based setups, and strategies tailored for global gold traders.
Bullish Momentum Intact: Watching R2 for continuation or pause Gold continued its upside momentum after a clean breakout above the previous week’s high, leading to a strong one-way rally towards the weekly R2 level at 3754. At the moment, price is holding well above the rising trendline, showing no signs of major rejection or reversal. The immediate resistance remains at weekly R2, and a sustained break above this level could open the door for a move towards weekly R3 around 3800.
The overall structure is still bullish, with higher highs and higher lows firmly intact. For any meaningful correction to take place, price would first need to break below the rising trendline. A deeper retracement would require price to trade back under the previous week’s high, which would then shift the short-term bias toward the weekly pivot zone near 3672. Until then, dips are likely to be seen as buying opportunities.
all commodities closing predictions As per chart patterns and technical indicators, there is a possibility that gold will close lower today compared to the previous closing.
As per chart patterns and technical indicators, there is a possibility that silver will close lower today compared to the previous closing.
As per chart patterns and technical indicators, there is a possibility that natural gas will close lower today compared to the previous closing.
As per chart patterns and technical indicators, there is a possibility that crude oil will close higher today compared to the previous closing
Gold Trading Strategy for 23rd Sember 2025GOLD TRADING STRATEGY
🟢 Buy — Enter only when a 15-minute candle closes above 3765; buy a tick/point above that candle’s high. Targets: 3775, 3785, 3800.
🔴 Sell — Enter only when a 1-hour candle closes below 3728; sell a tick/point below that candle’s low. Targets: 3715, 3703, 3685.
BUY SETUP — 15-minute candle (very detailed)
🔎 Condition to enter
Wait for a 15-minute candle to close above 3765.
Only after the candle closes above 3765 do you prepare to buy.
🧭 Entry execution
Identify the high of that confirmed 15-min candle (call it C_high).
Place a Buy-Stop order a small tick above the candle high (e.g., Entry = C_high + 1 tick), so your order triggers only if price continues up.
🛡 Stop-loss (SL)
Place SL just below the low of the same candle (call it C_low - 1 tick).
This is a clean, candle-based SL — simple for beginners to manage.
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 3775
Target 2: 3785
Target 3: 3800
SELL SETUP — 1-hour candle (very detailed)
🔎 Condition to enter
Wait for a 1-hour candle to close below 3728.
Only after the hourly candle closes below 3728 do you prepare to sell.
🧭 Entry execution
Identify the low of that confirmed 1-hour candle (H_low).
Place a Sell-Stop order a small tick below H_low (e.g., Entry = H_low − 1 tick).
🛡 Stop-loss (SL)
Place SL just above the high of the same 1-hour candle (H_high + 1 tick).
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 3715
Target 2: 3703
Target 3: 3685
⚠️ Disclaimer (READ CAREFULLY)
📢 This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading gold or any financial instrument involves substantial risk — you can lose more than your initial capital. Use proper risk management (e.g., limit risk per trade to 1–2% of your account). Always verify instrument point/contract value with your broker and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
STEVEN XAUUSD – Buy Scenario Aligned with the TrendTechnical Analysis
Gold continues its strong upward trend after breaking out from the previous accumulation zone. Currently, the price has tested the 3,742–3,744 range and is showing signs of pausing for a short-term correction.
The EMA200 H1 (3,662) remains upward sloping, confirming that the main uptrend is intact.
Fibonacci Retracement for the latest upward move:
The 0.786 level (3,738) coincides with the Volume Profile area – this is the first support for the short-term buy scenario.
The 0.618 level (3,707) coincides with the old resistance now turned support – a strong confluence, suitable for finding the main Buy point.
The RSI (14) is around 63–65, not yet in the overbought zone, indicating there is still room for an increase.
Trading Scenario
Buy aligned with the trend
Entry 1: 3,738–3,740
SL: 3,730
TP: 3,750 – 3,760
Entry 2: 3,707–3,710
SL: 3,695
TP: 3,738 – 3,760 – 3,780
Price Levels to Watch
3,742–3,744: short-term resistance, may cause adjustments.
3,738–3,740: nearby support, suitable for quick Buy.
3,707–3,710: strong support, important Buy zone.
3,780–3,785: extended resistance, target of the upward trend.
This is a reference scenario, not an investment recommendation. Stay tuned for earlier analyses and scenarios in upcoming sessions.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 23, 2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is in an uptrend, currently on the 3rd bullish candle of the cycle. This suggests we may see at least 2 more bullish daily candles from now.
• H4: Momentum has turned bearish, indicating the possibility of a corrective decline within today’s H4 structure.
• H1: Momentum has already turned bearish and is approaching oversold territory. This shows the current decline is weakening, and a short-term rebound is likely. However, if momentum turns back up and enters the overbought zone but fails to break the previous high, another bearish leg may follow.
________________________________________
Wave Structure
• D1: After completing wave 4 (yellow), price broke the previous high, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Wave 5 (yellow) targets are projected at 3789.019 and 3887.117.
• H4: Wave 3 (yellow) has completed, followed by a corrective structure in a flat WXY pattern. Currently, price is rising steeply, suggesting wave 5 (yellow) is underway. With H4 momentum turning bearish, this pullback could correspond to wave 4 within the ongoing wave 5 (yellow).
• H1: Wave 3 (black) has formed with a complete 5-wave sequence (blue). Price is now in wave 4 (black), which could develop as a Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle correction.
Wave 4 (black) target zones:
1. 3729.447
2. 3709.732
3. 3696.422
Once H4 momentum turns bullish from the oversold region, the nearest level among these zones is the most likely end of wave 4.
________________________________________
Trading Plan
Buy limit strategy at support zones:
• Buy Zone 1: 3730 – 3727
o SL: 3719
o TP: 3760
• Buy Zone 2: 3710 – 3707
o SL: 3696
o TP: 3729
If price extends lower, additional buy opportunities can be considered around 3696 or deeper levels marked on the chart.
________________________________________
👉 The primary trend remains bullish, with wave 5 (yellow) in progress. The plan is to wait for wave 4 (black) to complete and then enter Buy positions in alignment with the larger uptrend.
Weekly Candle Closes High | Prioritise Buying on Pullback to Sup🟡 XAU/USD – 22/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Quick Overview
Last week, gold closed around 3,685, paving the way for further advancement and a new ATH.
After the FED cut 25bps, Powell's 'brake' remarks slowed the rise, but the larger trend remains bullish.
This morning, prices surged to 3,697.xx, now slightly adjusting around 3,692 – 3,690 → a sensible strategy: wait for a pullback to continue Buying.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: The gold voyage still heads North, Buying remains the main choice, but wait for a pullback to board.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone):
Thin support: ~3,698 (recently broken old range top).
OB Dock: 3,687 – 3,690.
FVG Dock: 3,672 – 3,676 (liquidity check on deep pullback).
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone):
3,714 – 3,720 (supply cluster / old ATH – likely to react).
Price Structure:
Continuous BoS series, price breaks short-term up channel and creates higher highs → bullish remains the main trend.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan (before US session)
✅ Buy (trend priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,698 – 3,701
SL: 3,688
TP: 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,720+
Buy Zone 2 (OB)
Entry: 3,687 – 3,690
SL: 3,680
TP: 3,698 – 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,72x
Buy Zone 3 (FVG)
Entry: 3,672 – 3,676
SL: 3,664
TP: 3,687 – 3,706 – 3,714
⚡ Sell (only scalp when overbought)
Sell Zone (ATH test)
Entry: 3,740 – 3,738
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,730 – 3,690 – 3,695
Captain’s Note ⚓
“The new week kicks off with a high-closing candle, the gold vessel continues its bullish course. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,690 – 3,672) is a safe anchorage for the crew to watch for Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,714 – 3,720) is the wave crest where winds may rise, suitable for Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps. Before the US session, the seas might get choppy – hold the helm tight and manage volume wisely.”
XAUUSD – Wolfe Waves forming on H4 chart, clear correction signaHello Trader,
On the H4 chart, gold is forming a quite standard Wolfe Waves pattern. The 5th wave has completed, and the price is moving into the crucial resistance zone of 3760 – 3770, which is also a potential Sell Zone. Given the current structure, the preferred scenario is a short-term downward correction before the main trend resumes.
Technical Analysis
The price has touched the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension and reacted with a decline, indicating profit-taking pressure.
The MACD still shows the previous buying force was quite strong, but the histogram is starting to weaken, aligning with the possibility of a correction wave emerging.
Area 3760 – 3770: a critical resistance zone, also coinciding with the 5th wave line of Wolfe Waves.
Trading Scenario
Sell order according to Wolfe Waves
Entry: 3760 – 3770
SL: 3782 (above resistance zone)
TP: 3710 -3660 -3610 – 3620 (key level Wolfe target)
Sell when price confirms below trendline
Entry 3727-3730
sl 3735
tp 3715-3700-3686-3665
Short-term Buy Scalping
Entry: 3705 – 3708
SL: 3700
TP: 3720-3730 – 3745- 3766
Note: This is just a short-term retracement strategy, going against the correction, so risk management is crucial.
Conclusion
Short-term: Prioritise observing reversal signals at 3760 – 3770 to Sell.
Medium-term: Wait for Buy opportunities around 3564 – 3574 to align with the main trend.
The market is entering a distribution and correction phase, so patiently waiting for candle confirmations at key zones will be key to optimising entry.
This is the Wolfe Waves scenario I propose for gold during this period. You can refer to and adjust according to your own strategy.
Follow me for the fastest updates when the price structure changes.
GoldGuys our trade on gold long is still running in very good profit but we can still add some more qty at the price of 3740 with strict SL of 3728 and target same as described before 3780
Why Gold and US Bonds Move Together!Hello Traders!
If you follow global markets, you’ll notice that Gold and US Bonds often move in the same direction.
When one rises, the other usually does too. But why does this happen? Let’s understand the link in simple words.
1. Both Are Seen as Safe Havens
In times of uncertainty, whether it’s recession fears, geopolitical tension, or market crashes, investors rush towards safety.
Gold is considered a timeless store of value.
US Bonds are backed by the US government, making them the safest fixed-income asset globally.
So, in panic situations, both attract inflows together.
2. Driven by Interest Rates & Inflation
When inflation rises or central banks cut interest rates:
Bond yields fall, but bond prices rise as investors lock in fixed returns.
At the same time, low yields make gold more attractive since the “opportunity cost” of holding it decreases.
That’s why both often rally when interest rates are falling.
3. Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel
Both gold and US bonds are influenced by the US dollar.
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for global buyers, pushing prices up.
Foreign investors also buy US bonds when the dollar weakens, supporting bond demand.
4. Why Traders Must Watch This Correlation
If both gold and US bonds are rising, it usually signals fear and risk-off sentiment in global markets.
If both are falling, it often reflects rising risk appetite, money moving back into equities.
This correlation can help you gauge global market mood even before equities react.
Rahul’s Tip:
Don’t just watch Nifty in isolation. Keeping an eye on gold and US bonds can give you early clues about global risk sentiment. It’s like reading the heartbeat of safe-haven flows.
Conclusion:
Gold and US bonds move together because they serve the same purpose, safety in uncertain times .
Understanding this relationship can help you read the bigger picture and prepare for market shifts more confidently.
If this post helped you connect the dots, like it, share your views in comments, and follow for more global market insights!
XAUUSD Gold can move big as indicated in chart , we can plan accordingly
I think this will react same as I have planned
This is the best opportunity
Disclaimer; I will not be responsible for any kind of loss or profit
This idea is purely for observation purpose only
Gold 1H – Fed Signals & Geopolitics Keep Bulls on the MoveGold on the 1H timeframe is trading around 3,705–3,710 after a strong breakout, staying within a rising channel. Liquidity is concentrated above at the premium resistance zone near 3,716–3,718, while demand is positioned lower at 3,687–3,689 and deeper at the FVG zone 3,654–3,656. Recent dovish signals from the Fed following last week’s rate cut, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions, continue to bolster safe-haven demand. However, upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed speakers could trigger engineered moves into premium supply before retracements into discount demand zones.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,718–3,716 (SL 3,725): Premium resistance where liquidity sweeps may cause short-term rejections targeting 3,710 → 3,700 → 3,690.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,687–3,689 (SL 3,680): Near-term demand zone aligned with channel structure, offering a pullback entry targeting 3,695 → 3,700 → 3,715+.
• 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,654–3,656 (SL 3,647): Deeper discount support, attractive for longer setups targeting 3,670 → 3,685 → 3,700+.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Pullback to Demand (3,687–3,689)
• Entry: 3,687–3,689
• Stop Loss: 3,680
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,695
TP2: 3,700
TP3: 3,715+.
🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Sweep (3,654–3,656)
• Entry: 3,654–3,656
• Stop Loss: 3,647
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,670
TP2: 3,685
TP3: 3,700+
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Liquidity Run (3,716–3,718)
• Entry: 3,718–3,716
• Stop Loss: 3,725
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,710
TP2: 3,700
TP3: 3,690.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
The Fed’s dovish stance and safe-haven flows from geopolitical risks are sustaining bullish momentum, but intraday structure suggests smart money may first engineer stop-runs into premium resistance before retracing toward demand. Maintain buy-the-dip bias at defined support zones, while cautiously fading liquidity sweeps near 3,716–3,718. Volatility could increase as markets await fresh U.S. inflation data and Fed policy remarks.
gold spot today will down close as per chart petterngold today will close down from friday closing . as per chart pettern
Go long on gold, but be wary of potential declines.Go long on gold, but be wary of potential declines.
Spot gold prices have hit consecutive record highs in the past hour. This strong rally is primarily driven by the following factors:
1: The market currently prices a 91.9% probability of another Fed rate cut in October. This expectation will depress the US dollar and real yields, thereby increasing gold's appeal.
2: Friday's release of US core PCE inflation data will be a key factor. If the data shows slowing inflation, it will further reinforce expectations of rate cuts, which will benefit gold.
Key Support: Safe-Haven Demand: Ongoing geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainty are driving investors to allocate gold as a safe-haven asset.
Currency Market Signals: Gold's rise is primarily driven by demand from central banks and Asia, while Western investors are also increasing their gold holdings through channels such as gold ETFs.
Simply put, the current gold market presents a situation where "long-term logic is sound" and "short-term technical overbought" coexist.
Key Strategy: Follow the trend, but be wary of pullbacks.
The current market trend is bullish, so the strategy should primarily focus on buying dips, avoiding blindly speculating on tops and shorting. However, we must also be prepared for possible technical pullbacks.
Buy on Dips (Primary Strategy)
This strategy is suitable for entering the market when gold prices moderately retreat from their highs and find support before rising again.
Timing of Entry:
Best entry: When prices retreat to the $3705-3710 area (strong support during the Asian and European trading sessions) and a bullish candlestick pattern (such as a hammer or bullish engulfing candlestick pattern) appears on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart.
Second option: Enter after a strong breakout above the previous intraday high (such as $3726), and a minor pullback confirms this move.
A more conservative option: Enter if prices experience a deep pullback to the more critical support level of $3685-3695 (the resistance-turned-support level broken yesterday), then stabilize and rebound.
Stop-loss Setting:
Set your stop-loss $5-8 below your entry price. For example, if you go long at $3710, set your stop-loss at $3702.
The absolute bottom line: Stop-loss should not be set below $3673 (the bull-bear watershed). If it falls below, the short-term trend may weaken.
Target Price Levels:
First target: $3730-3735 (a new all-time high to attract buying).
Second target: $3740-3750 (a psychological round number).
Use a trailing stop: As the price moves in your favor, gradually raise your stop-loss to protect your profits.
Data Risk: Friday's US core PCE price index is the biggest variable.
XAUUSD – Gold Trading Plan: Fresh Record Highs & Fibo Zone React📊 Market Context
Gold regained strong bullish momentum on Monday, surging to a new record high above 3,720 USD/oz. The Fed’s dovish outlook, signaling the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year, continues to support non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a tailwind for safe-haven demand.
🔢 Technical Analysis (H2)
Immediate Resistance / SELL Zones:
3,818.769 – Key reaction zone where sellers may defend aggressively.
3,754.890 – Secondary SELL zone reaction area for short-term pullbacks.
Mid-Level Support / BUY Zone:
3,694.521 – First key area to watch for dips and potential buy reactions.
3,660.130 – Stronger support level if price pulls back deeper.
Major BUY Zone Reaction:
3,583.663 – Critical confluence of structure and Fibonacci support, a potential bounce zone if a major correction unfolds.
📈 Suggested Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
BUY: Look for pullbacks to 3,694–3,660 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
Targets: 3,754 → 3,818, leave partial position open if momentum breaks higher.
Stop Loss: Below 3,645 for safer positioning.
2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
SELL: Enter short at 3,754–3,818 zones only with strong rejection signals.
Targets: 3,694 → 3,660, trail stops aggressively to lock profits.
3️⃣ Deep Correction Opportunity
BUY: If price flushes to 3,583–3,585, consider scaling into longs.
Targets: 3,660 → 3,754, aligning with the broader uptrend.
⚠ Key Trading Notes
Expect increased volatility with Fed guidance and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Use smaller position sizes near resistance zones and employ stop-loss discipline.
Avoid mid-range entries; focus on well-defined zones for optimal risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Discussion
📊 Will gold sustain its rally toward 3,818 or see a deep pullback before another leg higher? Share your charts and insights below so we can compare strategies!
Gold's Rally Continues: Why a Fed Cut Isn't Slowing It DownHello, traders!
Gold started the new week on an impressive note, trading at $3,685 in early Monday's session. The main drivers are the market's continued reaction to the Fed's recent rate cut and escalating geopolitical events. So, the big question is, how far will this rally go?
Fundamental Analysis: Why Is Gold Still Soaring?
Although the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%—the first time in 2025—Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, calling it a "risk management cut." While this initially caused some market jitters, in the long run, lower interest rates are a strong supporting factor for gold.
Lower Rates: They reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset.
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are escalating, boosting safe-haven demand. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reported that Russia carried out a major drone and missile attack, reaffirming gold's role as a protective asset against global risks.
Technical Analysis: Breaking Resistance, The Uptrend Continues
Gold had a powerful rally at the start of the week, successfully breaking the key resistance zone at $370x. The price is currently hovering around $3720 with a slight correction, but the uptrend remains firmly intact.
Outlook: Given the strong upward momentum, short-selling (going short) with a tight stop-loss is extremely risky. We will continue to prioritize long positions (going long) as long as gold holds above the $370x level.
Suggested Trading Strategy (Strict Risk Management):
BUY SCALP
Zone: $3413 - $3711
SL: $3407
TP: $3716 - $3721 - $3726 - $3731 - $3741
BUY ZONE
Zone: $3700 - $3798
SL: $3790
TP: $3708 - $3718 - $3728 - $3738 - $3758
SELL ZONE
Zone: $3734 - $3736
SL: $3744
TP: $3726 - $3716 - $3706 - $3796 - $3779
The market is showing unpredictable volatility. Can gold overcome all barriers and set new records? Share your opinion in the comments below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GoldAnalysis #TradingView #FinancialMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #USD #Geopolitics
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis – September 22, 2025Gold (XAUUSD) technical analysis: Strong buy signal at $3,706. Support levels, resistance targets, stop loss strategy. September 2025 trading guide.
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading1. Introduction to Option Trading
Option trading is one of the most fascinating areas of financial markets. Unlike buying shares of a company, where you directly own a piece of the business, option trading gives you the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an underlying asset (like stocks, indices, currencies, or commodities) at a specific price within a specific period.
This flexibility makes options powerful tools for hedging, speculation, and income generation. However, the same flexibility also makes them risky if not handled with proper knowledge. Many beginners are drawn to the huge profit potential in options, but without understanding the risks, they often lose money quickly.
2. What Are Options? Basic Concepts
An option is a financial derivative contract.
It derives its value from an underlying asset (like Reliance shares, Nifty index, gold, crude oil, or even USD/INR).
When you buy an option, you’re not buying the asset itself; you’re buying the right to transact in that asset at a pre-decided price, called the strike price.
Example:
Suppose you buy a Call Option for Reliance at ₹2500 strike price, valid for 1 month.
If Reliance’s stock rises to ₹2600, you can exercise your right to buy at ₹2500 (cheaper than market).
If Reliance falls to ₹2400, you can simply let the option expire worthless (you don’t have to buy).
This right-without-obligation feature is what makes options unique.
3. Key Terms in Option Trading
Before diving deeper, let’s decode the important terminology:
Strike Price – The fixed price at which you may buy/sell the underlying.
Expiry Date – The date when the option contract ends.
Premium – The cost you pay to buy the option.
Lot Size – Options are traded in fixed quantities (e.g., Nifty option = 50 units per lot).
Underlying Asset – The stock, index, or commodity on which the option is based.
Exercise – The act of using your right to buy or sell at strike price.
Settlement – How the trade is closed (cash settlement or physical delivery).
4. Types of Options (Call & Put)
Call Option
A Call Option gives you the right (not obligation) to buy the underlying at a fixed strike price before expiry.
Buyers of Calls = Bullish (expect price to rise).
Sellers of Calls = Bearish/Neutral (expect price to stay same or fall).
Put Option
A Put Option gives you the right (not obligation) to sell the underlying at a fixed strike price before expiry.
Buyers of Puts = Bearish (expect price to fall).
Sellers of Puts = Bullish/Neutral (expect price to stay same or rise).
