USDINDEX trade ideas
Elliot wave Analysis # Bearish Sequence Long term viewTVC:DXY
Dollar Index (DXY)
240 Mins Bar (log scale)
DXY Correction IV A Double Zigzag or A Flat Structure?
DXY: Breakdown in this Channel is RequiredDXY needs to breakdown from this Channel to confirm reversal of trend
Elliot wave AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY)
Bullish Sequence
240 Mins Bar (log scale)
DXY Looks Impulsive on the upside till 93.5 to 94.2 level
NIFTY 50US DOLLAR INDEX indicating strength for the us dollar in comming days .Indian benchmark may see some profit booking looking to rupee depreciation amid global cues
nifty to take support at 14335 level .
Dollar Index -(Rise & Collapse-Part 1) Proposed Ending DiagonalDebut Idea for Dollar Index
Shown in oval shape was 1st leg of the triangle which topped out at 103.82 Published on 24th April 2016.
Proposed triangle for wave-4 ( currently we are in final leg- expect rise holding above 89.20) & later "collapse" in wave-5 ( proposed ending diagonal)
24th April 2016 (Click the Idea)
DXY-Possible Bullish divergenceOn the 4hrs chart, bullish divergence seems to form. It would be interesting to see how DXY moves in the coming weeks.
Double H&S pattern in dollar index Very rarely you will see back to back head and shoulder pattern
Dollar index in daily time frame started with an inverted head and shoulder - gave a false breakout and then formed a head & shoulder again. Will this lead to massive short covering in Indian index ?
Time will tell :) but this is just for pattern lovers
Happy Trading
MSK
DXY: Short Term ViewIf we look at the short term Daily Chart of DXY, we are clearly in a downtrend. As long as the trendline is not broken on a sustained basis, we expect the downtrend to continue with eventual big breakdown below 87.5 as we see on the weekly long term chart.
DXY: Long Term View on Weekly ChartDown Trend is continuing and we await major and sustained breakdown below 87.5 for further confirmation of the trend.
Gold good for a buyGold seems to be signalling a buy and the reasons I believe so are as follows:
1. Gold made a low of 1769 which significantly is slightly higher then the Nov low of 1765. This shows that bears are not in total control as generally believed.
2. The strange behaviour of Silver: inspite of Gold retesting its lows silver refused to break accordingly. This divergence is due to the following factors:
* Silver contracts expire next week and there are concerns about delivery as physical silver is not easily available and continues to sell at a premium.
* The change in prospectus of IShares Slv trust (largest silver ETF) where it no longer links itself to actual silver and talks about possibly stopping the issuance of new shares which could point to the difficulty of sourcing physical silver.
3. The above mentioned silver behaviour is signalling a move from paper to physical and could point to things to come for gold as the current contract approaches expiry.
4. The looming stimulus which is expected in March.
5. The increasing T yields which are pushing up borrowing costs for the Govt and could force the Fed to intervene in order to manage the yield curve (money printing).
6. Higher food inflation which could be a portend of things to come.
This analysis holds as long as Gold does not break 1765 and my targets are 1812-1835.
DXY: Back to Where it BelongsAfter almost a one month of bounce back, it has resumed its downtrend. Watch out for EMs and Metals.
US Dollar Forecast before Non Farm tonight!US Dollar Weekly Chart is approaching Supply Zone(Resistance) 91.70 to 92.50.
USD trending toward 92USD Index trending towards 92 bouncing off Downward Trending Channel Support Line.
Looking at Fundamentals however, the performance of the USD Index is surprising. Global stocks, crude oil and other risky assets are all bullish, and the latest moves on additional stimulus from US Democrats are all factors that should cause a weakening on the US Dollar.
Perhaps, the stellar ISM Manufacturing Index data and weakness in the Euro, Pound and other currencies that are paired with the greenback may have a hand in the bullishness of the DXY
Will Dollar index spoil the BNF Budget Rally ? The BNF on the budget day gave such a massive green candle, now big question is - will there be a follow-up or consolidation or reversal
When BNF is in full swing applying any rational thinking becomes meaningless, the script has texture, nature of its own which is quite dynamic . When it picks momentum it just doesn't listen to itself just keep accelerating :) Good day for all CE buyers.. 300-400-500-900 lol
What caught my attention today is dollar index - it is forming an inverted H&S on a daily time frame. It may or may not break out. but if it breaks out, it does have the capability to pause BNF rally, when I say pause - BNF may consolidate or correct a little.
So keep a watch on dollar index tomorrow and for next few days
Happy Trading
MSK
