Indian Market sideways amid global cuesUS TVC:DJI equities extended last week's sell-off on Tuesday after the recent data on consumer confidence and home sales showed the US economy may be finally coming under stress.
Federal Reserve continues to affirm its commitment that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period to manage inflationary pressures maintained hawkish stand and signaled another rate hike of 0.25Bps.
Should Indian NSE:NIFTY market be worried?
Comparing to the US markets Indian markets are fairly valued however, few concerns are hovering around in form of
1. Crude oil is expected to trade at 92.83 USD/BBL and estimated to be at 102 by the end of this year. This silent killer is tethering a potential increase in prices could result in skewed margins in the coming quarter
2. The Indian rupee depreciated past 83.3 per USD in September, renewing its record low amid fresh pressure from a strong DXY, hawkish outlook for the RBI pressured G-Sec prices in the secondary market and rupee-denominated debt assets, intensifying foreign selling from India.
3. India posted a merchandise trade deficit of USD 24.2 billion in August 2023, the largest gap in ten months
Setting aside the above risk, the India's GDP growth rate forecast estimate is still much stronger at 6% that favors the domestic market over the global peer.
According to my technical forecast, i expect market may try to find bottoms near 19000-18900 levels where the market will find itself oversold.
