DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from Supply Zone to 99.100 TargetTrend: 📉 Bearish Bias
Key Zones & Strategy:
🔶 Supply Zone (Sell Area)
📍 100.584 – 100.906
⚠️ Price may face selling pressure here
🔵 Entry Point:
🎯 100.584 (bottom of supply zone)
🔴 Stop Loss:
❌ 100.906 (just above resistance)
🟢 Target Point:
✅ 99.100
📉 Aligned with lower support line
Technical Indicators:
📏 Descending Channel
🔽 Price moving within parallel downward trend lines
📊 EMA (70) – Orange Line
🔁 Acting as dynamic resistance
Trade Setup Summary:
📌 Sell in the Supply Zone
🛑 Stop Loss: 100.906
🎯 Target: 99.100
⚖️ Good Risk-Reward Ratio
Warnings & Tips:
⚡ Watch for Breakouts:
If price breaks above 100.906 ➡️ 📈 Bearish idea invalid
📰 Check News Events:
FOMC, CPI, or other USD events may cause volatility
DXY trade ideas
DXY Weekly analysis (18-05-25 to 24-05-25)📊 Technical Analysis (4H Chart – DXY)
Current Price: ~100.53
Price action shows a rejection from the 100.60–100.80 zone after a minor bullish push. The structure is starting to roll over, and two potential bearish paths are illustrated with arrows heading toward 99.80 and possibly 99.30.
🔍 Key Technical Observations:
Support Zones:
• 99.80 (minor)
• 99.00 – 99.30 (major, previous reversal zone)
Resistance Zones:
• 100.50 – 100.80 (recent rejection zone)
• 101.50 – 102.00 (larger timeframe resistance)
Price appears to be forming a lower high, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
The bearish projection paths suggest potential downside movement unless bulls reclaim control above 100.80.
🔴 Bias:
Bearish short-term unless price reclaims and sustains above 100.80
🌍 Fundamental Outlook for the Week (13–17 May 2025)
🏦 1. Fed Policy Stance
The Fed remains on hold with a data-dependent approach. Persistent inflation and strong jobs data have delayed market expectations for rate cuts—supportive of USD. However, upside may be limited if inflation cools.
📈 2. Key US Data to Watch
CPI (May 15, Wed): Already released. If the print was softer than expected, it may justify the pullback seen on the chart.
Retail Sales (May 16, Thu): Key driver. Weak data could accelerate the drop toward 99.80.
Jobless Claims: Still low, but any uptick may weaken the dollar further.
💹 3. Geopolitics & Risk Sentiment
No significant escalation in global risk events. Risk sentiment remains mixed. If risk appetite strengthens and yields cool off, USD may continue lower.
✅ Conclusion
DXY outlook is bearish near-term if price remains below 100.80.
Expect potential downside toward 99.80 or even 99.30 based on chart structure.
Only a strong shift in data or sentiment (e.g., hawkish Fed remarks or geopolitical tension) could reinstate bullish momentum.
(DXY) Short Setup: Reversal Expected from Resistance Zone1. Entry Point: ~102.430
The price is currently below this level at 101.583, suggesting a potential short setup once the entry level is reached or confirmed.
2. Stop Loss: ~103.196
This is the price level where losses are limited if the trade moves against the intended direction. It's placed above a strong resistance zone.
3. Resistance Point: ~100.580
This was a previous resistance level which has now been broken, indicating a bullish push. The current price is above this, which may signal a breakout.
4. EA Target Point: ~97.857
The take-profit level, significantly lower, indicating a bearish target. This suggests a short position is intended from the entry point.
Indicators and Signals
The chart uses moving averages (likely 50 EMA and 200 EMA), and the price has surged above them, often a bullish signal.
However, the analysis seems to anticipate a reversal from the 102.430 level, expecting a drop back down toward 97.857.
The move from the current price to the target would be a 4.40% decline, a significant move for an index.
Trade Plan Summary
Trade Type: Likely a short/sell from the 102.430 level.
Risk: ~0.77 (103.196 - 102.430)
Reward: ~4.57 (102.430 - 97.857)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:6, which is favorable if the setup works out.
Weekly plan for DXYNotes
1. DXY can push higher if it is trading above 100.157 and protecting the FVG at 99.972 and a day
close above 100.700 will gave more confirmations to the uptrend
2. Upside target can be 100.913 & 101.267
3. If it fails to trade above 100.157 and protecting the FVG at 99.972 a price drop can happen
till 98.880 levels
DXY Weekly analysis (10-05-25 to - 17-05-25)📊 Technical Analysis (4H Chart - DXY)
Current price is around 100.00. The chart shows a clear higher low near 99.00, followed by a strong bullish reversal, marked by engulfing candles and momentum to the upside.
Key Technical Observations:
Support Zone: 99.00 – 99.30, a strong demand zone where the recent reversal began.
Resistance Zones:
Minor: 100.50 – 100.80
Major: 101.50 – 102.00, previous structural breakdown area.
The structure suggests a bullish recovery wave is forming after a long downtrend. A confirmed breakout above 100.50 could trigger further upside.
Short-term momentum favors buyers, indicating potential continuation.
🟢 Bullish bias remains valid as long as price holds above 99.50.
🌍 Fundamental Outlook for the Week (13–17 May 2025)
🏦 1. Fed Policy Stance
The Fed is staying data-dependent, holding off on rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Recent CPI and labor market strength have led markets to delay pricing in any rate cut. This continues to support USD strength in the short term.
📈 2. Key US Data to Watch
CPI (May 15, Wed): A hot print could trigger a DXY breakout above key resistance.
Retail Sales (May 16, Thu): Strong consumer data could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Jobless Claims: Still at historically low levels, signaling a tight labor market and reinforcing policy caution.
💹 3. Geopolitics and Risk Sentiment
Any global risk-off tone—especially related to China or the Middle East—could trigger safe-haven flows into the dollar. Rising US yields, driven by fiscal concerns and rate expectations, continue to offer support.
✅ Conclusion
Outlook is bullish for DXY next week if price sustains above 99.50. CPI is the major trigger—a hotter-than-expected inflation print could push price through 100.80 toward 101.50+. However, if data disappoints or dovish tones emerge from Fed speakers, DXY may reject from resistance and retest 99.80.
DXY - BULLISH Rocket blast ahead- Off to 122-125 rangeDXY in Weekly time frame.
Lovely correction has likely ended. It was a ABC Correction with a Triangle correction in B though not a regular one. C Impulse seems complete.
Let Dollar Index now go to 122-125 range.
Those shouting Dollar crash will be screwed
Regards
THE KING TRADER
DXY Weekly analysis (04-05-25 to - 10-05-25)🟩 DXY (US Dollar Index)
Move: DXY fell early due to weak inflation and growth, then bounced up on strong job data.
Reason: Market expected Fed to cut rates soon → dollar dropped.
But strong NFP shifted sentiment → Fed may hold off on cuts.
Next Week: If CPI and Fed comments stay hawkish, DXY likely continues higher.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Swing Trading AnalysisTechnical Overview
Trend:
DXY recently reversed from a downtrend and is now showing signs of a bullish recovery, forming higher lows and higher highs.
Current Price:
100.036
Moving Averages:
Price is trading above both short-term and medium-term EMAs, indicating bullish momentum.
Support Zone:
99.450–99.870 (highlighted box below current price; previous consolidation and EMA cluster)
Resistance/Target Zone:
103.000–103.100 (major resistance, aligns with your green target area)
Stop Loss Area:
97.859 (below recent swing low and the lower edge of your red risk box)
Risk/Reward:
The setup shows a risk/reward ratio of about 1.5:1, with a wide upside target and a logical stop below support.
Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently at 55.08, trending higher but not yet overbought, suggesting there’s room for further upside.
MACD:
Bullish crossover with histogram above zero, supporting the bullish bias.
Trade Plan
Bias:
Bullish (Long)
Entry:
Current price (100.036) or on a minor pullback to the support zone (99.870–99.450).
Stop Loss:
Below 97.859 (to protect against a deeper correction).
Take Profit:
103.000–103.100 (major resistance zone).
Risk Management:
Risk only 1–2% of your trading capital per trade.
Professional Insights
Price Action:
The recent breakout above the moving averages and a successful retest of the support zone confirm bullish intent.
Confirmation:
A strong hourly close above 100.250 would further validate the bullish swing setup.
Confluence:
Bullish momentum is supported by both RSI and MACD, and the risk/reward is favorable for a swing trade.
Fundamental Consideration:
Watch for upcoming U.S. economic data (NFP, CPI, Fed statements) as these can drive DXY volatility.
Summary Table
Direction Entry Zone Stop Loss Target Zone Rationale
Long 99.870–100.036 97.859 103.000–103.100 Bullish breakout, strong momentum, support
How This Relates to EUR/USD
Inverse Correlation:
If DXY rallies, EUR/USD is likely to fall. This supports a bearish swing trade setup in EUR/USD as discussed earlier.
Conclusion
DXY is in a bullish swing setup with a favorable risk/reward profile.
Enter long on pullbacks or confirmation above 100.250.
Manage risk with a stop below 97.859 and target 103.000+.
Watch for fundamental catalysts that could impact the dollar’s direction.
If you need live updates or want to compare with other indices or pairs, let me know!
"Plan the Short: DXY Targeting 98.004 "2. Current Price:
Around 99.587 💵
3. Indicators:
EMA 70 (Exponential Moving Average) ➡️ 99.442 📈
Price is dancing around the EMA, meaning trend is a bit bullish for now.
4. Chart Pattern:
Price moving inside an ascending channel 📈➰
Bouncing between channel support and resistance levels ⚡
5. Trading Plan:
Wait for price to reach the blue resistance zone ⬛ (around 100.5 to 100.9)
Look for sell (short) signals after reaching there ⛔
Expecting a reversal and drop down to target 98.004 🎯
6. Stop Loss & Target:
STOP LOSS: 🔴 100.870 (above resistance zone)
TARGET: 🎯 98.004
7. Key Observations:
Current Trend: Short-term bullish 📈 inside channel
Expected Move: Reach blue box ➡️ sell ➡️ fall toward 98.004 📉
News Events: Upcoming 📅🔔 (could create volatility)
Summary:
* 📈 Uptrend inside a channel.
* ⬛ Wait for price to hit the blue zone (100.5–100.9).
* ⛔ Look for short signals in the zone.
* 🔴 Stop Loss: 100.870.
* 🎯 Target: 98.004.
* ⚡ Watch out for news events that can move the market!
"DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from SBR Zone with Target at 97.800"1. Trendline Support Break:
🟡🟡🟡🟡
These yellow dots mark previous higher lows on the ascending trendline — now broken, hinting at a possible bearish reversal.
2. EMA (7):
🟠 ➖
This orange line is the 7-period EMA, hovering above the price, showing bearish momentum in the short term.
3. SBR + DBD Zone (Sell Zone):
🔵 SBR/DBD Zone
📍 Entry Point: 99.880
❌ Stoploss: 100.390
This blue zone is a Sell on Rally area. The chart suggests price might revisit this zone and then face rejection.
4. Price Projection Path:
↗️🔁📉
A potential retest of resistance followed by a strong drop is projected. The zigzag line drawn shows the expected movement.
5. Target Point:
🎯 Target: 97.800
📉 Expected drop of 2.04% from entry.
This is the price where the trade aims to take profit.
6. Summary:
🔽 Bearish Bias
🎯 Sell near 99.880
❌ SL at 100.390
✅ TP at 97.800
EMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 99.700 — tracks short-term trendEMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 99.700 — tracks short-term trend, and price is hovering near this level.
EMA 200 (Blue Line): At 100.935 — indicates long-term trend, acting as dynamic resistance above.
📈 Trade Setup
✅ Entry Point:
Price: 99.699
Rationale: This level has been tested multiple times, forming a support zone. A bounce here signals a potential long entry.
🎯 Target Point (Take Profit):
Price: 102.738
Distance: ~3.04 points or 3.43% potential move upward.
Note: Marked as EA TARGET POINT, which suggests a calculated area possibly based on previous resistance or algorithmic strategy.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Price: 98.624
Reasoning: Just below the defined support zone (highlighted purple area), ensuring protection against downside breakouts.
📊 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Entry: 99.699
Target: 102.738 → Gain of ~3.04
Stop: 98.624 → Risk of ~1.08
R/R Ratio: ~2.8:1 — favorable setup
📌 Overall Sentiment
This chart indicates a bullish reversal setup from a strong support zone, possibly targeting a mean reversion or trend reversal toward the 200 EMA and beyond.
However, keep in mind:
The price is currently below both EMAs, so the trend is still bearish.
The trade is counter-trend, relying on support holding and momentum shifting.
"USD Index Short Setup – Bearish Rejection from Supply Zone (DBD📉 Downtrend confirmed
➖ Lower highs and lower lows
➖ EMA (7) is sloping downward and acting as resistance
➖ Bearish momentum continues
Key Zones & Levels
🔵 Supply Zone (DBD)
🔹 Zone: 99.540 – 99.681
🔹 Label: “Drop-Base-Drop”
🔹 This is where sellers stepped in before – price is retesting it
🔹 Expecting a rejection from this area.
Trade Setup
📍 Entry Point:
🔹 Enter short around 99.540 – 99.681
❌ Stop Loss:
🔺 Set above the zone at 100.211
🚫 Protects against fakeouts
🎯 Target Point:
🔻 Target at 97.300
💰 Risk-Reward: 1:2.4 (Good!)
Visual Summary
📍 Entry: 99.540
❌ Stop Loss: 100.211
🎯 Target: 97.300
📉 Overall Bias: Bearish
✅ Strong RR setup with trend confirmation
US DOLLARTo confirm my EU view, here is DXY.
The buy zone didn’t hold—price broke through, sustained below, and established a strong new trading range. It just reacted off the 4H sell zone, confirming weakness. Now, all eyes on DXY for a sell-off.
With that being said, fundamentals are heavy this week, so keeping risk in check is key.
Blessings, T
DXY Building Momentum — "Cash is King" Narrative Returns?📌 DXY is showing clear signs of recovery on the H4 timeframe — and that tells us something deeper: risk sentiment is shifting. Investors are pulling capital from risk-on assets and moving to cash. Yes, "Cash is King" might be making a comeback.
🔍 What’s Driving the Move?
As fear ripples through global markets:
📉 Equities are shaky.
🟡 Gold dropped sharply under profit-taking pressure.
🪙 Crypto lacks new capital.
Now, capital is rotating back into USD — not necessarily because of strong fundamentals, but due to defensive positioning.
🔺 On the geopolitical side, Trump’s aggressive tariff threats are shaking confidence. As import/export tension rises, the global appetite for USD-denominated assets (especially U.S. bonds) is also climbing.
🧭 Key Technical Levels (4H Chart)
Support Zones:
🟦 101.467 – historical structure low
🟦 102.113 – minor intraday demand
🟦 102.660 – neckline & retest zone (key area to hold)
Resistance Zones:
🟧 103.803 – consolidation top
🟥 104.506 – key resistance and EMA crossover zone
🟥 105.632 / 106.157 / 106.622 – higher-timeframe targets if momentum continues
🔮 Outlook by AD | Money Market Flow
The market is on the edge right now.
If U.S. equities fail to bounce and global risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, we could see: ✅ A strong USD breakout ✅ DXY bottoming and reclaiming the 104–106 zone ✅ Major asset correction across risk-on markets (Gold, Stocks, Crypto)
“When markets panic, smart money rotates to USD. It’s not bullishness — it’s protection.”
— AD | Money Market Flow
🔁 What to Watch:
Fed’s next steps (Will they ignore Trump’s tariffs and focus on growth?)
Global equity market reactions
Bond yields (demand for U.S. debt could rise again)
📌 Stay sharp and follow the money. DXY is giving early signals — don’t ignore the shift.
🧠 Manage risk. Protect capital. Let the market come to you.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) –Key Resistance& Bearish Target Analysis📊 Key Observations:
🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level)
A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level.
The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout.
🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level)
A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯.
If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level.
📉 Recent Price Action:
🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈).
The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop.
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488)
The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum.
If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely.
🚀 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels.
❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
BULLISH ON US DOLLAR!As you can see on the chart, I am bullish on DXY. If you look at it from a technical perspective, you can see that after the accumulation schematic was complete, the dollar started gaining value. Price now needs to enter the markup phase. Looking at the current structure, price has formed a new trading range while breaking the high/structure to the left. A sharp reaction from that zone is a good sign. If the 4H candle closes bullish like this, it could be a strong indicator of bullish momentum building. Let's see. Overall, a pretty straightforward read.
Blessings, T
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart
🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫
📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432
🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone)
🔸 Support Zone 🛠️
📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce)
🔻 Target Point 🎯
📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside)
📊 Price Action Outlook:
✅ Bearish Scenario:
Price rejected from resistance 🔽
Lower highs forming ⚡
Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯
❌ Invalidation:
If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫
🔥 Conclusion:
⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232
❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update💥 US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update: Expert Analysis and Trading Strategies 💥
In just a few hours, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and update its economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This is a highly anticipated event that will shape trading decisions in the coming weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently fluctuating within the 103.00 - 104.00 range, reflecting investor caution ahead of the critical updates.
1. Interest Rate Decision and Its Impact on DXY
The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. However, the market is more focused on signals about future rate cuts, particularly in 2025.
Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting speech will be the key driver. The market will closely watch for hints on monetary policy, inflation, and the US economic outlook.
If the Fed adopts a hawkish tone (indicating sustained high rates or even further hikes), the DXY could rally strongly. Conversely, a dovish signal could weaken the USD.
2. Technical Analysis of DXY
🔴 Key Support: 103.18
The DXY is currently under pressure at the 103.18 support level. A break below this level could push the index further down to 103.00 or even 102.50.
This is a crucial zone, as failure to hold here would signal continued USD weakness in the short term.
🟢 Major Resistance: 105.00 and 105.57
If the DXY rebounds from current support levels, the next challenges will be the resistance zones at 105.00 and 105.57.
The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MA) on the daily chart are also key indicators to watch. A break above these MAs could reinforce the bullish trend.
📉 Short-Term Trend:
On the 4H chart, the DXY is in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. However, upcoming macroeconomic factors (the rate decision and Powell’s speech) could trigger a reversal or increased volatility.
Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are in neutral territory, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals.
3. Trading Strategy Before and After the FOMC Decision
🔍 Before the Fed Announcement:
Caution is key. The market may experience mild fluctuations during the wait. Traders should avoid large positions and wait for clearer signals.
Closely monitor key support and resistance levels: 103.18 (support) and 105.00 (resistance).
🔥 After the Fed Announcement:
Scenario 1: Fed Holds Rates and Signals Hawkish Tone
The DXY could rally strongly, targeting resistance levels at 105.00 and 105.57.
Strategy: Look for buy opportunities when the DXY bounces off support or breaks above resistance.
Scenario 2: Fed Signals a Dovish Tone
The DXY could drop sharply, breaking below 103.18 and heading toward 102.50.
Strategy: Look for sell opportunities when the DXY breaks support or fails to surpass resistance.
Scenario 3: Fed Holds Rates Without Clear Signals
The DXY may continue to fluctuate within the 103.00 - 104.00 range.
Strategy: Trade within the range, using identified support and resistance levels.
4. Advice for Investors and Traders
📊 Risk management: Always set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels to protect your capital. Post-FOMC volatility can be intense, so prepare mentally and have a solid trading plan.
📰 Stay updated: Keep a close eye on Fed updates and market reactions. Jerome Powell’s speech could create significant trading opportunities.
🛠️ Use technical tools: Combine indicators like RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci to identify precise entry points.
5. Conclusion
Tonight’s FOMC meeting will be a decisive factor for the DXY’s short-term direction. With clear support and resistance levels identified, traders should prepare their strategies to capitalize on market movements.
🚨 Stay tuned for the latest updates on TradingView to ensure you don’t miss any trading opportunities!
Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes! 💪💰