S&P 500 – Prepares for the rise to 3.000 pointsHello,
we will see a tremendous increase to 3,000 points after the correction that has just begun ends in the green tradingbox you can see in the chart above. I think that the big correction since all-time-high is done as a triangle. Since then the bulls are laying the basis for new highs: 1-2 Elliott-wave impulsive setup (these setups are the basic pattern of waves with an impulsive character).
Where we are standing?
Since the end of wave 4 (purple in brackets) the SP500 0.33% built a huge first wave (blue in brackets), which now goes into a wave 2 correction pattern. Most of the time second waves retrace the first ones by over 50%, and that’s why second waves are perfect entry-points. I think that we are going to complete wave 2 in the green box shown in the chart above. For me it’s a perfect chance to place long orders.
Where do we go?
After completion of wave 2 (blue in brackets in between the green tradingbox), we will most likely see an increase with goals beyond 3,000 points. And that's why we should prepare ourselves for this very long way.
But: If I am not right and the S&P 500 0.33% goes down under 2,588 points, then we will see new lows as shown in the chart below (then there will be other opportunities to trade the trend):
Please leave a comment or a message, if you have any questions!
Take care
tgo
Trade ideas
S&P, ResistancePrice rose in a rising channel since February 2018 on the support of 200 DMA -- strong uptrend. At present S&P500 is at the channel top and also reached the previous high. Double Top pattern in place. Generally such a pattern indicates to a crucial inflexion point. From here price can move either of the sides. As the trend is up, there can be some consolidation happening.
Why this chart is important for Indian market? This chart has close affinity with all major international markets. This is not a trading call but an effort to understand the general mood of the trading community of the world.
Let me know what is wrong in this study. I am ready to correct my understanding accordingly.
Short the upper end of the range?Because my trading can not catch up, please allow me to write it briefly.
<< tactics >>
When judging that 2800.0 functioned as a resistance line, I will short.
The first limit is on MPP (R1)
The second limit is on WePP (S2)
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
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Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number.
Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
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Has the uptrend ended?It was a story of five months ago when I made a move towards 2900.0.
Currently, it can be seen from the daily story that 2800.0 acts as a strong resistance, preventing up trend persistence.
Daily
I assume that this symbol is not considered an uptrend already.
However, most recently it is likely to consider trading using a support line from Double Zero 2700.0.
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1) Double Zero Judged that 2700.0 functioned as a resistance line.
long entry.
The first limit is under thin horizontal line 2738.6.
The second limit is under WePP (P) 2756.0.
2) It can not be determined that double zero 2700.0 functions as a resistance line.
There is MPP (P) 2678.0 under Double Zero 2700.0, so I do not think of a short. I will observe.
Finally, WePP and MPP will be updated on Monday as weekend and monthend are approaching.
Flexible response is required.
It is a good choice not to enter if you feel difficult.
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
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Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thickLine: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding double zero
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
------------------------- --------------------------
When US sneeze, India catches cold- old statement, still valid?Historically, Indian markets used to react to whatever happened in the US. That's what the subject line suggests.
Does it still hold good? I have tried to examine S&P 500, one of those indices that we often refer to (along with Nasdaq and Dow).
Earlier to this, I have been analysing and posting the trends in Nifty and Bank Nifty. See my discussion on Head & Shoulder pattern in Nifty.
Note the right side of a big head in the S&P chart. After the big head, the index has formed two additional heads at lower levels - clear signs of trend turning bearish. Not only that, watch the big size candles on the right side vs the slow-turtling up pattern from August 2017 till about mid Jan2018.
Towards the end of Jan18, all hell broke loose. In US as well as in India. And we have seen about 10-15% corrections in both markets.
More specifically, see the parallel channels - it appears like a Dam-Canal-Bridge kind of a picture on the S&P! Water flowing down. If we continue the trend, it looks more likely that the recent (intraday) lows of 2553 could well be breached, and could even take the index below its 6 months low that was seen in the last week of September 2017, before the end of April18.
Why it is important for us? Because Indian indices generally react to the US indices as stated earlier. So perhaps, once again, both Indian indices and US indices may walk in tandem, down the canal. Even the weakening RSI indicates that. If that happens, S&P could lose another 5-7% resulting in a fall in Indian indices too.
What is needed to arrest this down-flow? perhaps extremely positive Mar18 quarter results (last quarter for us, first quarter for US).
comparison of S&p 500 and dow jones and our niftyAll the indices are at 50 day moving average on weekly chart. You will be amazed to see pull back but, correction is not lkcomplete, pull back will be sold into 9700 on nifty,2566 on S&p, and 22,719 on dow jones. Immediately now next week you will see pull back and global markets experiencing relief rally to get sold into another final round of sell off
Global risk (equity) marketsAfter the fox paus of North Korea, and despite the best efforts of US admin to fuck things up, normalcy is restored.
Normalcy by definition is abnormal though these days. So be on your tows.
Over next few days, week or two, it's the most bullish of bull market all around!
Medium to long term is unknown.
But it's great time to make some money in short term.
For one, there are a lots of shorts out there considering the headwinds out there.
And two, equal measure are willing to buy on dips. So in any impromptu move up, shorts get burned and longs will tag along.
I, for one, am definitely expecting a short and sharp burst up in US equities. And that should see a follow through in other markets.
There is always a fear of Kim Jong Un doing something stupid. But what the world doesn't understand is Kim isn't stupid. Trump is.
As long as General Kelly keeps doing a great job he's been doing so far, any Trump shorts will burn. And that's a great news for risk markets all around.
Make hay while the Sum shines. The Sun won't shine forever though.
I have a feeling when Trump sees Kelly getting some credits he will push on to satisfy his narcissism and dump the risk on trade.
So that should still give us a couple of weeks.
For Indian markets. the high beta and leaders like MARUTI, RELIANCE, HDFCBANK should translate well.






















