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US500.F trade ideas

When US sneeze, India catches cold- old statement, still valid?Historically, Indian markets used to react to whatever happened in the US. That's what the subject line suggests. Does it still hold good? I have tried to examine S&P 500, one of those indices that we often refer to (along with Nasdaq and Dow). Earlier to this, I have been analysing and posting the trends in Nifty and Bank Nifty. See my discussion on Head & Shoulder pattern in Nifty. Note the right side of a big head in the S&P chart. After the big head, the index has formed two additional heads at lower levels - clear signs of trend turning bearish. Not only that, watch the big size candles on the right side vs the slow-turtling up pattern from August 2017 till about mid Jan2018. Towards the end of Jan18, all hell broke loose. In US as well as in India. And we have seen about 10-15% corrections in both markets. More specifically, see the parallel channels - it appears like a Dam-Canal-Bridge kind of a picture on the S&P! Water flowing down. If we continue the trend, it looks more likely that the recent (intraday) lows of 2553 could well be breached, and could even take the index below its 6 months low that was seen in the last week of September 2017, before the end of April18. Why it is important for us? Because Indian indices generally react to the US indices as stated earlier. So perhaps, once again, both Indian indices and US indices may walk in tandem, down the canal. Even the weakening RSI indicates that. If that happens, S&P could lose another 5-7% resulting in a fall in Indian indices too. What is needed to arrest this down-flow? perhaps extremely positive Mar18 quarter results (last quarter for us, first quarter for US).
SP:SPXShort
by Gem23
Global risk (equity) marketsAfter the fox paus of North Korea, and despite the best efforts of US admin to fuck things up, normalcy is restored. Normalcy by definition is abnormal though these days. So be on your tows. Over next few days, week or two, it's the most bullish of bull market all around! Medium to long term is unknown. But it's great time to make some money in short term. For one, there are a lots of shorts out there considering the headwinds out there. And two, equal measure are willing to buy on dips. So in any impromptu move up, shorts get burned and longs will tag along. I, for one, am definitely expecting a short and sharp burst up in US equities. And that should see a follow through in other markets. There is always a fear of Kim Jong Un doing something stupid. But what the world doesn't understand is Kim isn't stupid. Trump is. As long as General Kelly keeps doing a great job he's been doing so far, any Trump shorts will burn. And that's a great news for risk markets all around. Make hay while the Sum shines. The Sun won't shine forever though. I have a feeling when Trump sees Kelly getting some credits he will push on to satisfy his narcissism and dump the risk on trade. So that should still give us a couple of weeks. For Indian markets. the high beta and leaders like MARUTI, RELIANCE, HDFCBANK should translate well.
TVC:SPXLong
by Kaustubh