SnP 500This chart of the SnP has been posted by Me in the past with the levels of the Cup and Handle formation. I have recently been studying the data for the US markets of the Last 72 years and what it shows is this.
1. In the Last 72 years............. The market dropped 34 times. Of this 34 times, on 12 occasions it went to below 20% calling it a BEAR MARKET Scenario. 22 times it went into a correction of 10-16%, call it simply a correction and nothing more. Currently from the JULY peak, the SnP has dropped 10% and if history is to go by, let us assume it will fall 16%. That 16% fits the exact bill for a move towards 4050 or so to confirm the Cup and Handle formation.
2. The drawdown of 10-16% lasted 22 times within 100 days. Currently it is 91 days.
3. Markets thereafter have given a return of 56-74% on all the previous corrections in the last 72 years.
4. I WILL NOT TERM THIS AS A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.
In context to the Indian Index, here is what I have come up with.
1. I have had to assume that the Indian market will go by the US consensus ... YYYY ????? 1stly the Indian Stock exchange is not 72 years old, and has not been through the cycles of the Great Depression..... etc. The Indian market actually was Hand written untill just 30 odd years ago and hence data can only be collected for the last 30-35 years.
2. Should the Indian Market Mimic the US market............. the worst case scenario is a 16% fall from the peak of 20200..... (b)..... We will probably do this 16% retrace even though the US markets may bounce back earlier than we do.
3. If we go the data way of the US market............ can we go to 96 days of Correction?? I would say..."" YES"".. The reason I say this is 2 fold. 1stly, should the market fall 16% in half the time @ 48 days we are not far away from that. 2ndly, it would be tooooooooooo obvious for Investors to follow a V shape parabolic recovery. The BIG BOYS will not want that.
4. I have said in my prior posts that I expect the Bottom of this CORRECTION on the Nifty by Dec end -15th January 2024 only. Within this space of Up and Down...... Investors will get frustrated. So much so that Many will get out.
5. Lastly, WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.......... NO NOT YET
